Capitalism, climate change and the transition to sustainability alternative scenarios for the US, China and the World

1、capitalism, climate change, and the transition to sustainability: alternative scenarios for the us, china, and the worlddr. minqi li, assistant professordepartment of economics, university of utahsalt lake city, usa, ut 84112paper submission to development and changejanuary 2009as a historical syste

2、m, capitalism first emerged in western europe at the beginning of the 16th century and has since expanded to encompass the entire globe (wallerstein 1979). in the capitalist era, world population, consumption, and production have experienced unprecedented, explosive growth. the activities of materia

3、l exchange between the human species and the earths ecological system have overwhelmed the ecological systems natural operative capacity. according to the living planet report 2008, the worlds total ecological footprint, which measures the humanitys demand of the earths living resources, now exceeds

4、 the earths regenerative capacity by 30 percent (wwf et al. 2008). the humanity is now confronted with a multi-dimensional global environmental crisis that threatens to undermine the basis of civilization and the survival of the human species.global climate change is among the most important, and po

5、tentially the most catastrophic, symptoms of the crisis. now there is a scientific consensus that the emissions of greenhouse gases, which primarily result from the consumption of fossil fuels (which global capitalism has relied upon as its main source of energy supply), have been the primary factor

6、 behind the observed increases in global temperatures (ipcc 2007a).in recent years, china has become a major driving force of the global capitalist economy and china has overtaken the us to become the worlds largest emitter of greenhouse gases. china and the us together account for about 40 percent

7、of the global emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas. unless both countries take meaningful steps to reduce emissions in accordance with their global obligations, there is virtually no hope for the global emissions to be reduced to levels consistent with what are required for clim

8、ate stabilization.it would be naive to think that climate stabilization can be accomplished within the historical framework of the existing social system. in the us, china, and the world as a whole, meaningful and effective actions towards climate stabilization presuppose and require fundamental soc

9、ial change. in this paper, i evaluate the geopolitical and technical issues involved in climate stabilization and discuss alternative technical paths towards required emission reductions in the us, china, and the world. i argue that under no plausible scenarios, could climate stabilization be made c

10、ompatible with a pace of capital accumulation required for economic and political stability under a capitalist system. the paper concludes by discussing possible social changes required for achieving climate stabilization in the us, china, and the global context.capitalism and climate changeaccordin

11、g to angus maddison, the world economy grew at an average annual rate of 0.01 percent from a.d. 1 to 1000, at a rate of 0.1 percent from 1000 to 1500, at a rate of 0.3 percent from 1500 to 1800, and at a rate of 2.2 percent from 1820 to 2000. during the first millennium, the world economy barely gre

12、w at all. during the following five centuries, the world economy doubled in size, but most of the growth was offset by the growth of population. during the three centuries when capitalism emerged and became established in western europe, the world economic output tripled. over the last two centuries

13、, when capitalism expanded and eventually dominated the entire globe, the world economy multiplied by more than 50 times (maddison 2003). it is not coincident that modern economic growth (the kind of economic growth that takes place at exponential rates and seems to go on indefinitely) has taken pla

14、ce only in the capitalist era.like the previous class societies, capitalism is a social system where the societys surplus product (the total product less what is necessary to meet the populations basic needs) is controlled by a privileged minority that forms the societys ruling class. unlike all pre

15、vious societies, capitalism is the only social system that has so far existed where market relations are pervasive and dominant in societys economic and social life.in previous class societies, such as ancient egypt, mesopotamia civilizations, roman empire, medieval europe, the chinese empires, the

16、arabic empires, ottoman empire, mogul empire in india, or the incas, the distribution and the use of surplus product typically took place through political processes or in accordance with societys established cultural, religious, or social norms. while market relations had always existed in these so

17、cieties and in some historical contexts even prospered, they never dominated these societies economic and social life and usually depended upon a much larger subsistence economy. the overwhelming majority of the population (mainly peasants) engaged in production that directly provided their basic ne

18、cessities. the ruling class appropriated the surplus product mainly through political coercion or religious obligations imposed on the general population. the surplus product was almost entirely used for the ruling classs luxury consumption or other non-productive activities (such as military conque

19、st), with little left for capital accumulation and technical innovation. merchant capitalist activities were subject to political and religious restrictions and often repressed by the state.by contrast, under capitalism, the appropriation and the use of surplus product take place primarily through t

20、he operations of the market, in the form of exchanges between private owners of commodities. while in previous societies, the purpose of production was usually to meet the populations needs or to satisfy the elites desires for concrete forms of luxuries (such as imperial palaces, tombs, castles, jew

21、elries, delicious food, or war glories), under capitalism the purpose of production has become to make money (or profit) itself. what distinguishes capitalism from previous class societies is not the existence of private property and market (as supposed to the dominance of the market), but that capi

22、talism is a unique economic system based on production for profit.when market relations are pervasive and dominant (so that nearly every aspect of economic and social life can be measured and valued by money), individual capitalists, businesses, and states are under constant and intense pressure to

23、compete against one another. those who fail to prevail in market competition will cease to exist as capitalists. to survive and prevail in competition, each capitalist, business, or state is compelled to use a substantial portion of the surplus product at its disposal (profits or taxes) to engage in

24、 capital accumulation. as a result, under capitalism, there has been a systematic tendency for population, production, and consumption to expand on increasingly larger scales.the idea that market competition under capitalism motivates and compels individuals and businesses to generate savings and us

25、e savings to invest in new capital or new technology, is in fact a fairly conventional concept, widely accepted by classical, neoclassical, austrian, and marxist economists (even though traditional neoclassical economics fails to emphasize the dynamic nature of market competition). it is obvious tha

26、t investment in new capital leads to greater capital stock and greater output. investment in new technology would allow greater output for any given level of capital and labor force and generally also leads to greater output. unless one manages to make a case that pervasive and dominant market relat

27、ions do not have to imply pervasive and dominant market competition, it is difficult to see how capitalism as we know it would not generate an inherent, powerful tendency towards economic growth. even today, this is still considered by many as the primary virtue of capitalism. adam smith, for exampl

28、e, discussed four historical stages of human development (hunting, pasturage, agriculture, and “commerce” or capitalism) and emphasized that only under capitalism there was a powerful tendency to pursue capital accumulation. david ricardo and john stuart mill each discussed the possibility that capi

29、talist accumulation would eventually lead to a “stationary state.” however, for both ricardo and mill, stationary state would result from a secular tendency for the rate of profit to fall. thus, ricardos and mills stationary state in effect implied the end of production for profit and the end of cap

30、italism as we know it. karl marx regarded wage labor and production for profit as the essential features of capitalism and emphasized the pervasiveness and dominance of commodity relations under capitalism. for the economic ideas of smith, ricardo, mill, and marx, see hunt (2002). immanuel wallerste

31、in, the leading world system theorist, explicitly defined capitalism as a historical system based on the pursuit of the “endless accumulation of capital” (wallerstein 1979). james gustave speth, a leading environmental scholar, also regards the pursuit of perpetual economic growth as the defining fe

32、ature of modern capitalism (speth 2008).to achieve ecological sustainability, human impact on the ecological system in all its dimensions must stabilize at levels within the systems natural operative capacity. if economic output were to grow indefinitely, then to stabilize human impact, impact per u

33、nit of economic output (in all dimensions of resources consumption and environmental pollution) must fall towards zero. as it is impossible for human economic activities to have zero impact on environment, an infinitely growing economy will inevitably violate the requirements of ecological sustainab

34、ility.according to intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc 2007b), global emissions of carbon dioxide must fall by 50-85 percent from 2000 to 2050 to prevent global warming by 2-2.4 degrees celsius from pre-industrial times, widely considered to be the threshold required to prevent climate c

35、atastrophes that could threaten the survival of humanity and civilization. since the ipcc reports were published, new studies have pointed out that the ipcc reports seriously underestimated both the potential consequences and the urgency of climate change and far more drastic actions are required to

36、 prevent civilization-threatening catastrophic consequences (for example, see hansen et al. 2008). martin parry, co-chair of the ipcc report recently said that a 80 percent reduction of emissions by 2050 would only give a 70 percent chance of avoiding a 2-degree warming (pearce 2008, the news report

37、 did not specify the base year of emission reduction). james hansen, one of the worlds leading climate scientists, argues that the current atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will have to fall from the current level of 385 parts per million (ppm) to no more than 350 ppm to prevent the climat

38、e system from moving beyond dangerous “tipping points” that could lead to run away global warming beyond human control. hansen suggests that there must be an immediate halt of all new coal-fired power plants and all of the worlds conventional coal-fired power plants need to be phased out by 2030 (ha

39、nsen 2008).hansens 350 ppm requirement roughly corresponds to ipccs 85 percent reduction requirement. according to the ipcc report, a 85 percent reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from 2000 to 2050 would help the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent to stabilize at 445 ppm, whic

40、h corresponds to an atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at 350 ppm. the rest of this paper works with the assumption that an 85 percent reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from 2000 to 2050 would be required for climate stabilization. this translates into an average annual rate of reductio

41、n of 3.7 percent from 2000 to 2050. figure 1 compares the actual annual rates of change of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and the annual rates of change of emission intensity of gdp (the ratio of world carbon dioxide emissions to world gdp) for the period 1960-2006 with the annual rates

42、of reduction required for climate stabilization.from 1960 to 2006, for each and every year, global emissions grew at rates well above what is required for 85 percent reduction. in fact, for nearly every year, emission intensity failed to fall rapidly enough to match the 85 percent reduction requirem

43、ent. rates of change of emission intensity essentially tell us where the rates of change of emissions would be if economic growth were to be zero. thus, given the current pattern of technical change, the global economy needs to stop growing immediately if there were to be any hope to achieve climate

44、 stabilization. on the other hand, as economic growth and emission growth have continued since 2000, climate stabilization would in fact require more rapid reduction of emissions than is suggested in figure 1.the geopolitics of climate changeeven if it is technically feasible to make climate stabili

45、zation compatible with economic growth, efforts of climate stabilization are likely to face insurmountable political obstacles under the capitalist world system. capitalism is a system based on inter-state competition, which is essential to secure favorable political conditions for capital accumulat

46、ion (wallerstein 1979; arrighi 1994). within the world system, states are under constant pressures to compete against other states economically and militarily.climate stabilization would require the substitution of de-carbonized energy sources (which currently are often more expensive than fossil fu

47、els) for conventional fossil fuels, or the adoption of energy efficiency measures that businesses otherwise would not adopt (the economic benefits of the new energy efficiency measures thus may be smaller than their economic costs). therefore, climate stabilization measures would at least raise the

48、short-term and medium-term costs for capitalists and slow down the pace of capital accumulation. thus, few states would be willing to take serious actions towards emission reduction unilaterally as this could seriously undermine their competitive position in the world system. on the other hand, ther

49、e is not a world government that can effectively discipline the individual capitalist states and help to promote the long-term, structural interest of the system as a whole.historically, successive hegemonic powers had, from time to time, acted as proxies of world government and helped to maintain a

50、 careful balance between inter-state competition and the promotion of the systemic interest. however, now as the us hegemony is in decline, there is not an apparent successor that could act as the next hegemonic power and effectively regulate the system. historically, the hegemonic powers of the cap

51、italist world system have rested upon control over globally effective means of violence as well as universally accepted means of payment, that is, military and financial power (arrighi et al. 1999). some suggested that todays advanced capitalist countries, such as the us and europe, could lead the g

52、lobal climate actions by setting example or standard (for example, see galbraith 2008). however, as is to be discussed below, unless the peripheral and semi-peripheral states are willing to give up economic growth or accept much slower pace of growth, it is not clear how examples (assuming this exam

53、ple-setting is politically feasible within advanced capitalist countries) by themselves could persuade the peripheral and semi-peripheral states to take sufficient and timely actions towards climate stabilization.the problem is further complicated by the fact that the capitalist world system is char

54、acterized by fundamental inequalities in the distribution of income, wealth, and power. the states within the system, depending on their relative advantages or disadvantages in the global division of labor, are divided into three structural positions: core, semi-periphery, and periphery (wallerstein

55、 1979).among the core states, european union has been most active in promoting global effort of climate stabilization. in 2007, the european commission announced the objective to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels. however, the european action by itself would fall

56、 far short of what would be required for global climate stabilization. given the current relative contribution to global emissions, the planned european emission reduction, if achieved, could be offset by just one or two years of chinas emission growth. china now accounts for about 20 percent of the

57、 worlds carbon dioxide emissions, while the european union accounts for only about 10 percent. thus, if chinas emissions were to grow at 10 percent a year, it would be sufficient to offset a 20 percent reduction of european emissions. moreover, while the latest european summit (which took place at p

58、oznan in december 2008) reconfirmed the 20 percent emission reduction goal, it also made many concessions to heavy industries and eastern european countries. the deal also allowed the european countries to buy “credits” to fulfill their emission reduction obligations, for investment in emission redu

59、ctions in the rest of the world. this arrangement could become a major loophole that dilutes the emission reduction plan (the economist 2008). on the other hand, given its heavy dependence on fossil fuels (especially oil) and highly wasteful energy infrastructure, until recently the us capitalist class had been much more hesitant to make a serious commitment to climate stabilization. under the obama adminis