外商直接投資技術(shù)溢出效應的空間計量分析

1、Vol.25 N0.4Apr.2009外商直接投資技術(shù)溢出效應的空間計量分析摘 U: Moran I栓臉和空間和關(guān)系數(shù)檢臉都表明.FDI的技術(shù)進步作用存在空間相關(guān) 空間和 關(guān)的主要原因是外胥離技術(shù)產(chǎn)品進入市場引致模仿效應和競爭效應.而市場的選擇并不總限 于FDI投計地這種空間相關(guān)性在1997年開始顯著到1999年達到一個相對的穩(wěn)定值?？臻g 計量模理回歸結(jié)果表明.FDI的技術(shù)溢出效應趨出擠出效應.FD【的技術(shù)進步作用的關(guān)枝在于 FDI的有和無不在于童的不斯增長童太大反而產(chǎn)生擠出效應 因此當前應重視欠發(fā)達地區(qū)的 外商投訐發(fā)達地區(qū)的外商投資則應避免其形成壟斷 國內(nèi)因索對技術(shù)進步的作用大于FDI的 作

2、用研發(fā)人員的流動對技木進步的作用非常丈要而資本存童、R&D資本投入的作用具有一 定的地理閒部性.關(guān)fliB|：FDI;技術(shù)溢出；空間計量；面板數(shù)堀 中圖分類號:F123.6文獻標J ； ：A文“編 V： 1(M>2-4)594<2(MK)MH-4XK)5-O6收稿 H 期：2(MN-<)1-18外.(FDI),FDIo FDIoFDIFDI0GDP符森廣東外語外罰大學oFDI國際經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易學院 廣東廣州510006Q一、空間計量模型Paelinck 1974基金項目：Anselin(198«)o敢育部人文社會ye科學研究規(guī)劃基全y £項目 68JA7

3、90028)y 609作者簡介：符森Q97JM廣 東雷州人,廣東外語oy；x(1),N；pNKCliff Ord(1973)；w；B X K；e外貿(mào)大學國際經(jīng)濟貿(mào)ow易學舵.國際經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易秫究中心副教授()經(jīng)濟學博士，研究方lo向為計量經(jīng)濟學。第25卷第4期2009 年 4 fy =X/?+£a We+( NID(l(rI)(1)(1)o31,o(2)o&£.A34Mn山1(f)953o w0 w X(l)o uUt UtIID()Q, I )YlX«P+6仇婦入i=l -N; t=l-T(2)二、數(shù)據(jù)、TFP和技術(shù)進步模型o19912(X)6 199020

4、05 o.19900OFDIoo、(2(X)3)19521998 %(2(X)4)o0 TFP(3),Y-GDP;©Goldsmith,i,t9.6% : a(2(X)3)O.fX)9；YTFP 一w(3)j J-a K.Arrow(1962)9 itcMOMKS mo w muaoRomerFDI0Romer.Arrow.oFDIR&D.FDIR&D .FDIR&D.(4)。LTFP產(chǎn)BiLFDU+BqLKD 汁匕RD/+B&LR 汁.牛從+a>f 0,=a w</>,+vri=lN; t=l -T(4)Lo .TFPit (3)

5、FDh、 KD"、RD”、FDI R&D、R&Do(2(X)5).RDit/Yit, R&DGDPo LRit,s ,(3)o三、空間相關(guān)存在性及其歷史變化:D.Romer(1996)D. RomerR&D .R&DR&DoFDI0FDIcMoran Io Moran I(5),%oeOLS W N.sW,W,1efWe ,c'c Moran IoI=(N/S)(eWe/ee(5)HO: X=0A(4)oMLXo0FDIFDI,(4)FDIFDI(4).19902005Moran IloVol.25 N0.4Apr.2009表I

6、：空間相關(guān)的Moran丨檢驗結(jié)果FDIMoran IPMoran 1p1<MM)-0.1732«O.：M)7I60.551981991-O.14BS4-0.042940.87814992-0.01W50.767390.01450O.1G412IW30.151190.088520.161510.0151319940.109U)0.187100.119380.1097419950.1 (MM>0.191220.0WW8o.iay55l<MX>0.027910.507740.0S363OJ2W5I19970.145160.(«(>140.14604(

7、).059161998011720.026880.212460.0149719W032165O.OOI770.287190.002032000“276870.006560.274450.0035420010J57OO0.010760.258370.0061120020J25O37O.OI2O(>0.267210.005122003059350.009330.278240.003322<M>40.147950.101340.101480.180872003“.362320.000610.352590.00071,1997,FDIc1 ,Moran I199()1996, Mor

8、an I.FDI1W四、空間計量模型回歸結(jié)果和討論FDI.FDIFDIFDI,(2(X)6)1995.FDI, FDIOFDIFDIo 2。.入(AR2R2,LLo, Hausman o(一)模型之間的比較和選擇R2 LLR2R2FD1Vol.25 N0.4Apr.2009Vol.25 N0.4Apr.20099X.X.FDI().5入1 ().5 Xo XFDI9,Moran I.01 , O1993999oMoran I,1993,lfdi,.1993Moran I,FDIMoran 1O 1999 *.Moran 10.3,FDI0(-)FDI對技術(shù)進步的作用及其空間相關(guān)FDIMoran

9、 I. FDIFDIFDICH表2：空間計模型回歸結(jié)果t1ttLFDI0.020 嚴4.79300.0262-53871-<).()172-3.08910.0121*2.1163LKD0.100R-7.3727O.oa26-1.9850RD/Y6.65«6-5.51910.8W1.7686LLR0.01420.7357o.(»4r2.5298XO.55W78-13.77850.5070-11.6731AR2LL0.7645373.50450.8223419.68550.8320452.7656O.»2«7434.12<X>注：伙I變富為

10、Ln(TYP)農(nóng)不10%顯帛“農(nóng)示5%於弁"拿農(nóng)示0 0o*LFDI 0R&DR&DoLFDIo LFDIFDI,FDI7%,0o、FDIR&L)o,FDIoFDIFDI,FDI0 FDI FDI9FDI FDI0FDI9oFDIFDI,FDI,、(2(X)6)FDI丄FDIFDI0().0262().0121, 1%9,FDI90LFDI.LFDIo0o FDI.LFDIO(2(X)6)FDI%LFDI().01 (H.R&DR&D90.0135 (HXH7.tLFDI,O.(K)67 oLFDI(三)內(nèi)部因素的作用及其比較o0.0121FD

11、I.R&DFDI©R&D9Oo9 FDIR&D0LFDI,9O0R&DFDIo9FDI. FDI,LFD1ooLFDIo:FDIR&D90R&Do0；FDI9,FDIR&DR&D.R&DR&D R&DR&DR&D（符森電子郵箱：cnfrn ）五、結(jié)論和政策建議,FDIMoran IXLFDI芳考文瞅：,2（Mk>.FDl.IM.2(M)5.R&D.2(Mtt(6). 2(M>I.J|(1°).FDI|J：1 術(shù)2-199«J：1952-200

12、0,FDI,Moran I,1996.FDI1997 FDIo,1999Anselin. L. Spatial Econometrics: Methcxls and Mixlels|M|. KluwerAcademic. Dordivcht. PW8.Arrow. Kenneth J. The economic implications of learning by doing/ |J|. Rev. Econ. Studies 29 (June): 155-73Cliff. A. and Ord. J. K.Spatial AulocorTelation |MJ.London:Pion. 19

13、73.Komrr David Advaru'tNl Mannvonomtn;( M |. 2nd edition Mi<ir;iw- Hill Companies Inc.TFP. R&D第25卷第4期2009年4丿JA Spatial Econometric Analysis of FDI Technology* SpilloversFU Miao(Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, Qiina)Abstract: By Moran I and spatial correlation co

14、efficient test, the paper finds that FDI technology spillover effects arc significantly spatially correlated. The reasons for the spatial correlation are the simulative and competitive effects caused by the entry of foreign high- tech products Tlie markets of the entry products aren't geographic

15、ally localized to the host regions of FDI. Tlie spatial correlation of FDI technology spillovers has become significantly stabilized since 1997. The results of the analysis show that FDI spillover effects overueigh crowding out effects. The existence of FDI instead of the quantity of FDI is crucial

16、for the positive eflects of FDI. Crowding - out effects may be introduced by excessive FDI. Therefore, xw should pay more attention to the attraction of FDI in lcss advanced regions and the avoidance of the monopoly caused by foreign investments in advanced regions. The domestic factors for tech nological progress are more important than FDI, and the flows of R&D vwrkforce play a key role in technological progress uhile the contributions of capital stock and R&D capital investment to technological progress are somewhat geographically localized.Key words: FDI: technology s