匯豐銀行全球旅游行業(yè)與到達如何最好地捕捉流

1、Equities / EconomicsGlobalJuly 2019By: Erwan Rambourg, James Pomeroy, and the Global Equity Research Team S p o tl i g h t Future Consumer Despite regular challenges linked to regulation, politics, FX, terrorism, or epidemics, we see travel as a compounding growth themeConsumers, notably, willlikely

2、 allocate a bigger share of their wallets to travel, and spend is rising exponentially with incomesWe highlight eight Buy-rated stocks that we believe offer the best exposure to the travel growth themeDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifi

3、cations in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Playwith Erwan RambourgTravel and arrive: how best to capture tourism flows獲取報告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報告；當日華爾街日報、4、行研報告均為公開利歸原作者所有，起點財經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學習。掃一掃關注 回復：加入“起點財經(jīng)”群。Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019Why read this report?Despite

4、 regular challenges linked to regulation, politics, FX, terrorism, or epidemics, we see travel as a compounding growth themeuConsumers, notably, will likely allocate a bigger share ofutheir wallets to travel, and spend is rising exponentially with incomesWe highlight eight Buy-rated stocks that we b

5、elieve offer the best exposure to the travel growth themeuA deep dive into the future of travelDespite macro tensions, travel is growing across the world. Global international (overnight) tourist arrivals rose by 6% to 1.4bn in 2018. The World Trade Organization forecast in 2010 that arrivals would

6、reach 1.8bn by 2030, but current growth is exceeding that trend rate. Increased travel in the developed world is driven by a number of socioeconomic factors, notably cheaper travel, more accessible knowledge on where to go, social media, improved safety and demographic changes that favor traveling m

7、ore. In the emerging world, travel growth is being driven by increases in incomes as more consumers move up into the middle class and are able to spend more on travel.are keyIn the emerging world, China in particular is a key driver of international travel growth. WhileErwan RambourgGlobal Co-Head o

8、f Consumer and Retail ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. erwanrambourgthey only accounted for about 7% of total outbound travel in 2018,travelers accountedfor 10% of global outbound travel expenditures for the same year with figures that have only grown since 2013, per Euromonitor. Moreover, there i

9、s room to grow as we forecast outbound travel from China to increase by a mid-single-digit rate through 2026 and resident departures as a proportion of the total population are still considerably lower than peers Japan and South Korea. For more on China, see page 10.Raising key ESG questionsIncrease

10、d global travel, however, has consequences for the environment and local communities. Many countries are facing concerns of overtourism as visitor inflows exceed infrastructure capabilities, affecting the environment. Planes and cruise ships generate significant greenhouse gases and can be difficult

11、 to regulate when it comes to waste and emissions. Rising rents have been linked to high concentrations of Airbnb units, and the use of Airbnb and other home-sharing services could also have employment effects on competing industries. For more on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues rel

12、ated to travel, see page 14.We highlight eight stocks that we believe offer the best exposure to the travel theme We summarize our views on eight of our Buy-rated stocks that we believe have the most direct exposure to the travel theme and that stand to benefit the most from its compounding growth:A

13、utogrill, Ctrip, Fraport, Hotel Shilla, Huazhu Group, Pegasus, Samsonite and Volaris. Although we maintain our Buy rating on Samsonite, we trim our target price to HKD28 from HKD29 in this report. For our views on luggage and airlines to hotels and online travel services, please feelfree to reach ou

14、t to any of our analysts for further questions.1Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019ContentsWhy read this report?1Global travel growth3Related researchHSBCs Anatomy of the Consumer survey series45Travel and tourismA bigger share of the wallet All roads lead to China What could cap growth?661014Our t

15、op picksAutogrill SpA (AGL IM) Ctrip (CTRP US) Fraport (FRA GR)Hotel Shilla (008770 KS)192024283236404450Huazhu Group(HTHT US)Pegasus (PGSUS TI) Samsonite (1910 HK)Volaris (VOLARA MM)Disclosure appendix57Disclaimer602Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019Global travel growthTravel is growing across th

16、e world:are key1.4bnGlobal international (overnight) touristarrivals grew 6% to 1.4bn in 2018.USD115bnExpenditures of Chinas outbound travelers totaled USD115bn in 2017 while domestic tourism expenditureswere USD720bn. driven by a number ofsocioeconomic factors:travelers spend per outbound tripexcee

17、ded that of US travelers by 30% in 2018Cheaper travelUSD1,641ChinaSocial mediaImproved safetyUSD1,264USDemographicchangesGrowingincome$As consumers continue to move up intothe middle class, China is increasingly relevant in the travel sectorPercentage of GDP coming from tourismKey ESG issues0%Croati

18、a71%Macau51%Antigua andBarbuda105The number of areas within the EU that are suffering fromovertourism49%The increase in European cruise traffic over the past10 yearsDoubleBetween 2003 and 2017, the total number of airline passengers carried worldwidedoubledMontenegro11%ThailandSource: Euromonitor, C

19、trip, CTA, World Bank, HSBC314%Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019Related researchRecommended readinguSpotlight: Future Consumer: Women, Asian, Young the WAY to go, 2 April 2019Future Consumer: Catch-22 Where share of wallet will go next, 19 April 2018uuPanda Luxury Staycation: Why China should gro

20、w at twice the global luxury market pace,1 April 2019Who cares wins: The future consumer and the rise of ESG themes, 25 February 2019The World in 2030: Our long-term projections for 75 countries, 25 September 2018uuRecommended viewingSpotlight: Future ConsumerWomen, Asian, Young the WAY to go In a f

21、ollow-on to our first Future Consumer report, James Pomeroy, Global Economist, and Erwan Rambourg, Global Co-Head of Consumer andRetail Research, look at three key themes affecting the way the world consumes and highlight the impact on equities.2 April 2019Future ConsumerCatch-22: Where share of wal

22、let will go next James Pomeroy, Global Economist, and Erwan Rambourg, Global Co-Head of Consumer and Retail Research, look at three major shifts in the way the world consumes and assess the implications for equities23 April 2018Summary of ratings and estimates all stocks are rated BuyLatestPrice9.48

23、Target PriceImpliedUpside16.0%Mkt Cap PE (USDm) 2019e 2020e2,716 20.0x 18.2xEV/EBITDA2019e 2020e AnalystStockAutogrillTickerAGL IMCurrencyEUROld11.00New11.006.8x22.7x10.8x9.0x19.7x3.3x8.1x5.1x6.3x Ali Naqvi*Ctrip International FraportHotel Shilla Huazhu Group Pegasus Samsonite VolarisCTRP US FRA GR

24、008770 KS HTHT US PGSUS TI 1910 HK VOLARA MMUSD EUR KRW USD TRY HKD MXN37.9674.1083,90034.7048.2417.0418.4846.9082.00140,00043.1061.2029.0021.0046.9082.00140,00043.1061.2028.0021.0023.6%10.7%66.9%24.2%26.9%64.3%13.6%21,011 20.8x 23.5x7,712 15.8x 16.0x2,784 18.8x 16.1x10,213 36.5x 25.4x864 5.3x4.4x3,

25、122 12.2x 10.7x842 11.4x 17.1x14.7x Binnie Wong*10.9x Andrew Loebbenburg* 7.8x Karen Choi*14.0x Lina Yan* 4.2x Cenk Oran*7.1x Erwan Rambourg 5.4x Ronny Berger, CFANote: Latest prices as of 10 July 2019. *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pu

26、rsuant to FINRA regulations. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates4Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019HSBCs Anatomy of the Consumer survey seriesFor over two years, HSBC has teamed up with Toluna to survey consumers around the world. Feelfree to reach out to our analysts to discuss these surveys and wh

27、at they mean for stocks.“Deluxe” surveys focusing on luxury and premium goods:uChina Deluxe Checking in on luxury consumptionA year after our first China Deluxe survey, we found that consumption still looks strong despite the headlines., 19 February 2019consumers luxuryuUS Holiday Deluxe - Anatomy o

28、f the US luxury consumer, 3 December 2018In December 2018, US consumers were not prioritizing luxury as much as consumers were, despite a positive outlook for the next year.“Anatomy of the Consumer” surveys focusing on general consumer and retail trends:uIndia: Anatomy of the Consumer Welcome to the

29、 land of middle-class optimists, 8 April 2019 In April 2019, Indian consumers were feeling optimistic about the economy and their economic prospects, believing they will earn more and spend more in the next year.Indonesia: Anatomy of the Consumer Optimists, but no big spenders here, 18 February 2019

30、 In February 2018, we found that Indonesian consumers were expecting an increase inhousehold income but were not willing to spend more, and upgrading is not a priority.uuPoland: Anatomy of the Consumer Optimism peppered with caution, 23 January 2019In January 2019, Polish consumers were feeling opti

31、mistic about the economy although their optimism was tempered by concerns over rising living costs and inflation.UK: Anatomy of the Consumer Evolution of issues, 16 January 2019In January 2019, UK consumers expressed their concerns over the rising cost of living anduBrexit, and, their behavior shows

32、 they are concerned despite rising real incomes.uTurkey: Anatomy of the Consumer A difficult year, 10 January 2019In January 2019, Turkish consumers were feeling pessimistic about 2019 and concerned over money in the face of slowing economic growth.uRussia: Anatomy of the Consumer Feeling the pinch,

33、 27 November 2018In November 2018, we learned how Russian consumers are feeling in the context of Vladimir Putins “May Decree” with pessimists outweighing optimists.Mexico: Anatomy of the Consumer What do Mexican consumers want?, 26 November 2018 In November 2018, Mexican consumers were bullish desp

34、ite macro fears.South Africa: Anatomy of the Consumer Consumers are worried; spending habits will reflect this, 22 October 2018The subtitle of this October 2018 publication seems quite self-explanatory. Click the link toread more.uuuBrazil: Anatomy of the Consumer What do Brazilian consumers want?,

35、13 April 2018In April 2018, we learned about the disconnect in Brazil between distrust in institutions and brands and optimism about the economy and salaries.US: Anatomy of the Consumer What do US consumers want?, 18 January 2018 In January 2018, American consumers were confident but not spending as

36、 much.u5Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019Travel and tourismTourism flows appear well supported in the future, driven by expectations of growth in both developed and emerging marketsconsumers are the key driver in tourism spend vs the rest of the world, and there is room for even more growth in ou

37、tbound travelIncreased global travel also raises questions about ESGuuuA bigger share of the walletDespite macro tensions, US consumers spent 8.7% more (in nominal terms) on overseas travel in the 12 months to April 2019 compared with 4.6% more on aggregate consumption overall.And this trend isnt ju

38、st a one-off: Having stagnated at about 1% of expenditure in the decade up to the global financial crisis in 2008, the share of spend on overseas travel in overall spend in the US has risen steadily since the crisis. The share is now at 1.4% of total spend, and the pace of growth is roughly twice th

39、at of total spend. And its not just the US: globally, international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) rose by 6% in 2018 to 1.4bn. The World Tourism Organisation estimated in 2010 that arrivals would reach 1.8bn by 2030, but we are currentlyseeing growth above that trend rate. Travel and tourism

40、 spending is rising quickly.James Pomeroy Economist HSBC Bank plcjames.pomeroy+44 20 7991 6714Why is that?As we wrote in our report Future Consumer: Catch 22 (19 April 2018), there has been a broad- based rise in experience spending. In the US, consumer spending has continued to tilt towardsservices

41、 (now just-shy of 70% offastest growth has been in experiences.al expenditure is on services), and within this, theExperience spending* is on the rise45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Under 25years25-34years200035-44years45-54years55-64years201265 years and older65-74years201675 years and older2006Note: *

42、Experience spending Is spending on Food away from home and entertainment as a share of spending excluding hous ng, transport, food at home, health and insurance. Source: US Survey of Consumer Expenditure6Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019Within experiences, tourism spending in particular is being

43、pushed by a number ofsocioeconomic factors:uCheaper travel The cost of flying fromor state to another has collapsed inthe past few years due to the arrival low-cost carriers, better price transparency and deregulation. The arrival of Airbnb and similar apartment rental services have pulled down the

44、cost of staying in many cities as hotels are having to compete on price due to these competitors and a broader range of price comparison websites for hotels. New types ofaccommodation, such as smaller, basic hotels, are providing new alternatives to big hotels.uKnowledge on where to go The internet,

45、 travel blogs andhave brought newplaces to the eyes of people who may not have seen them before. Planning where to go and what to do there is easier than ever, which lowers any barriers that people may have felt around trying new destinations.Social media The rise of social media has created a cultu

46、re in which young peoples travels are documented like never before. According to Expedia, the biggest priority foruyoung people when booking a holiday is how “mable” the location is1.uIncreased safety Although it may not feel like it, many parts of the world have become farmore accessible to tourist

47、s over the past decade or so due to more stable politicalenvironments and the end oftourist hotspots.s. Croatia, at war until 1995, is now one of EuropesuDemographics The number of retirees and the number of millennials who both want to travel more and have the means to do so is increasing. Many sur

48、veys, including our own Anatomy of the Consumer series (see page 5) point to younger generations wanting to travel more than older generations, largely as a result of the factors mentioned above. Meanwhile, aging populations in the developed world are rising; these retirees are richer and perhaps he

49、althier than at any point in the past, increasing the size of the potential tourism pool.These trends are primarily affecting the developed world where the share of the consumption basket has shifted so that travel now makes up a greater share of the average spend. However, across the emerging world

50、, there is now a large number of young consumers who are ready and able to spend much more on travel. A study by the Visa Travel Insights team2 finds that income is the main determinant of international travel and as many emerging market consumers become able to afford to travel, tourism numbers sho

51、uld continue to spike. This will disproportionately come from the rise of a new middle class in the emerging world with GDP per-capita levels crossing into a range where domestic and overseas tourism becomes much more of the share of spending by consumers.The jump in incomes that across the emerging

52、 world is moving a significant number of consumers into the middle class range of incomes where consumption patterns change dramatically. Taking the World Banks Global Consumption Database, we can pull out the share of spending on a number of tourism-based categories, and the difference in spend is

53、dramatic for higher income households than those for lower and medium income households. Although many consumers in the likes of India and Indonesia are some way from the higher category for spending, each year thousands of consumers are seeing their incomes rise into brackets thatallow them to spen

54、d more on discretionary services with tourism very high on that list.1 The Independent (28 December 2017). “Millennials when booking holidays think ofphotos above all other factors.”2 Lung, Richard for Visa (22 February 2017). “Travel wanderlust: Age is not a constraint, but income might be.”7Equities / Economics GlobalJuly 2019EM countries are seeing steady growth in GDP per capita18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000India1990Source: HSBC World in 2030 estimates (25 September 2018)Tourism spend rises exponentially with incomes% Spend2.502.001.501.000.50