抽樣調(diào)查方法

1、抽樣調(diào)查方法 蘇建州世新大學(xué)傳播管理系1內(nèi)容大綱抽樣調(diào)查目的與步驟抽樣調(diào)查誤差來源抽樣方法基本原理非機(jī)率抽樣方法機(jī)率抽樣方法電話調(diào)查之抽樣方法樣本結(jié)構(gòu)與代表性問題加權(quán)估計(jì)法的基本原理結(jié)論 2抽樣調(diào)查目的與步驟目標(biāo)母體(Target population)抽樣母體(Sampling frame)重要參數(shù)(Parameters)調(diào)查方法(Survey Modes)抽樣設(shè)計(jì)(Sampling Design)問卷設(shè)計(jì)(Questionnaire Design)資料分析(Survey Data Analysis).3調(diào)查的誤差來源抽樣誤差(Sampling Error)非抽樣誤差(Non-samplin

2、g Error)測(cè)量誤差(Measurement Error)無回應(yīng)誤差(Non-response Error)未涵蓋誤差(Non-coverage Error)4抽樣方法的基本原理科學(xué)方法:源自嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)慕y(tǒng)計(jì)推論實(shí)例說明樂透彩與統(tǒng)一發(fā)票開獎(jiǎng)美國總統(tǒng)選舉民調(diào)信賴區(qū)間估計(jì)與樣本數(shù)信心水準(zhǔn)(Level of confidence) 抽樣誤差(Sampling error)成本(Cost effective) v.s. 效率(Efficiency)準(zhǔn)確度(Accuracy) v.s. 精確度(Precision)效度(Validity) v.s. 信度(Reliability)偏差(Bias)v.s.標(biāo)

3、準(zhǔn)差(s.d.):MSE(Mean squared Error)5非機(jī)率抽樣方法便利抽樣(Convenience sampling)判斷抽樣(Judgement sampling)自願(yuàn)樣本(volunteer sample)配額抽樣(Quota sampling)雪球抽樣(Snowball sampling)6機(jī)率抽樣方法簡(jiǎn)單隨機(jī)抽樣(Simple random sampling)系統(tǒng)抽樣(Systematic sampling)分層隨機(jī)抽樣(Stratified random sampling)集群抽樣(Cluster sampling)多階段抽樣(Multi-stage sampling)

4、probability proportional to size (pps)雙重抽樣(Two-phase sampling)捉放捉抽樣(Capture-recapture sampling)7電話調(diào)查之抽樣方法電話號(hào)碼簿抽樣法簡(jiǎn)單隨機(jī)抽樣系統(tǒng)抽樣去尾碼後隨機(jī), 尾碼+1隨機(jī)撥號(hào)法(Random Digit Dialing, RDD)簡(jiǎn)單隨機(jī)撥號(hào)法二階段隨機(jī)撥號(hào)法pps: (size of working bank)戶中抽樣8樣本結(jié)構(gòu)與代表性問題追加樣本或追蹤失敗樣本(Callback)遺漏資料(Missing data)補(bǔ)差法(imputation)事後分層(post-stratification)加權(quán)處理(weighting)建立模式(Modeling)9加權(quán)估計(jì)法的基本原理權(quán)值與觀察值被抽選機(jī)率成反比若某層over-representative則降低該層權(quán)值,反之under-representative則增加該層權(quán)值.根據(jù)樣本個(gè)別的可靠性或重要性主觀assign權(quán)值 反覆加權(quán)(raking)加權(quán)變數(shù):人口統(tǒng)計(jì)變數(shù)(demographic),電話線數(shù), 戶中人口數(shù),.10結(jié)論Why All Polls Are Not Equal?李應(yīng)元在臺(tái)北市長選舉民調(diào)的失蹤人口對(duì)僑委會(huì)調(diào)查報(bào)告之評(píng)論意見調(diào)查的品質(zhì)管理專業(yè)化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化持續(xù)改進(jìn)11李應(yīng)元在臺(tái)北市長選舉民調(diào)的失蹤人口hard