International Energy Outlook

1、International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021)ForCenter for Strategic and International StudiesOctober 6, 2021 | Washington, DCByStephen Nalley, Acting AdministratorAngelina LaRose, Assistant Administrator for Energy AnalysisU.S. Energy Information AdministrationIEO2021 HighlightsIf current policy and

2、technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth.Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be u

3、sed to help meet load and support grid reliability.Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 20212residentialindustrialEnergy use is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels q

4、uickly in non-OECD regionsIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 20213Energy consumption by sectorquadrillion British thermal unitsEnergy consumption by sectorquadrillion British thermal units history projectionshistory projectionsOECDnon-OECDtransportationresidentialcommercialindustrialtransportationcomm

5、ercialIEO2021 includes COVID-19 impacts; Side cases include alternative assumptions and newly expanded resultsIEO2021 Reference case Incorporates global COVID-19 impacts on the energy sectorUses the U.S. projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021, which assumes U.S. laws and regulations

6、 as of September 2020 Assumes implementation of current laws and regulations as of May 2021, including existing climate law; Climate Considerations in the International Energy Outlook (IEO2021)1 provides more details Uses Oxford Economics GDP projections, with a global growth rate of 2.8% per year A

7、ssumes 2050 world oil price reaches $95 per barrel (2020 dollars)Side cases explore alternative economic growth and oil price assumptionsHigh and Low Economic Growth cases: 3.7% per year and 2.0% per year global GDP growth rateHigh and Low Oil Price cases: $176 per barrel and $45 per barrel 2050 wor

8、ld oil prices (2020 dollars)IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 20211 EIA, Climate Considerations in the International Energy Outlook (IEO2021), https:/outlooks/ieo/climate.php4The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy informa

9、tion to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIAs role is unique. By providing an unbiased view of energy markets, EIA increases transparency and promotes public understanding of important energy i

10、ssues.EIA has expanded its program in recent years to provide a growing customer base with coverage of increasingly complex and interrelated energy markets. IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 20215High EconomicGrowthReferenceLow EconomicGrowthHigh EconomicGrowthReferenceLow EconomicGrowthOECDnon-OECDh

11、istory projectionsIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 2021EIA assumes a range of GDP and oil prices, which affect projected energy consumption6Gross domestic producttrillion 2015 dollarsWorld oil prices 2020 dollars per barrelLow Oil PriceReferenceHigh Oil Pricehistory projectionsHigh Economic GrowthHi

12、gh Oil PriceReferenceLow Oil PriceLow Economic GrowthGlobal energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal unitshistory projectionsIEO2021 HighlightsIf current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a

13、result of population and economic growth.Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability.Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increas

14、ing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 20217OECDnon-OECD history projectionsWorld energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal unitsBy 2050, global energy use increases nearly 50%, driven by non-OECD economic growth and population8World gross domestic

15、product (GDP)trillion 2015 dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP)Populationbillion peoplenon-OECDOECDnon-OECDOECD history projections history projectionsIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 2021petroleumand other liquidsrenewablesnatural gascoalnuclearLiquid fuels remain the largest source of primary en

16、ergy in the Reference case, but renewables use grows to nearly the same levelIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 20211 Includes biofuels 2 Electricity generation from renewable sources is converted to Btu at a rate of 8,124 Btu/kWh9renewablescoalpetroleumand otherliquidsnatural gasnuclear1Primary energ

17、y consumption by energy source, worldquadrillion British thermal unitsShare of primary energy consumption by source, worldpercentagehistory projections12history projections history projectionsHigh Economic GrowthHigh Oil PriceReferenceLow Oil PriceLow Economic GrowthWorld liquid fuels consumptionmil

18、lion barrels per dayLiquid fuels consumption rises from 2020 in all IEO cases10IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 2021Electric vehicle stock contributes to reduced emissions and represents 31% of total passenger vehicle stock by 2050IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 20211 Electric stock includes full b

19、attery electric vehicles (BEVs) or all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that run on liquid fuels when batteries become depleted11total passenger stockLight-duty passenger vehicle stockbillions of passenger vehicleshistory projectionshistory projectionshistory projection

20、snon-OECDOECDnon-OECDOECDnon-OECDOECDconventional stockelectric stock1Energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rise, even as carbon and energy intensity fallIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 202112non-OECDOECDEnergy-related CO2 emissionsbillion metric tonshistory projectionsnon-OECDOECDCarbon in

21、tensitymetric tons CO2 per billion British thermal unitsnon-OECDOECDEnergy intensitythousand British thermal units per 2015 dollar of GDPIEO2021 HighlightsIf current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 205

22、0 as a result of population and economic growth.Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability.Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support

23、increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 202113In the electric power sector, renewable energy generation grows significantly, with support from non-intermittent sourcesIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 202114World net electricity generation by sourc

24、etrillion kilowatthours history projectionssolarcoalnatural gaswindhydro-electricnuclearothernon-renewablesrenewablesOECD electricity generation change from 2020trillion kilowatthoursNon-OECD electricity generation change from 2020trillion kilowatthoursothersolarwind hydroelectricnuclearnatural gasc

25、oal history projectionsInstalled electricity generating capacity, IndiagigawattsInstalled electricity generating capacity, CanadagigawattsGrowing intermittent generating capacity is supported by different technologies, depending on each regions respective resources15IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6,

26、2021battery storageothersolarwindhydroelectricnuclearnatural gascoal history projectionsIEO2021 HighlightsAs a result of population and economic growth, if current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050.

27、Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity demand, but natural gas and coal, and increased use of batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability.Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing A

28、sian economies.IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 202116 history projections Nearly all energy consumption growth occurs in non-OECD Asia, driven by economic growthIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 202117AmericasAsiaEuropeOECD energy consumption by regionquadrillion British thermal unitsNon-OECD energy

29、 consumption by regionquadrillion British thermal unitsAverage annual percentage change in GDP, 20202050, select regionspercentage history projectionsAsia Middle EastAfricaAmericasEurope andEurasiaNon-OECD Asia leads growth in liquid fuels consumption but has limited increases in crude oil productionIEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 202118Total liquid fuels consumption by select regionsmillion barrels per dayCrude oil production by select regionsmillion barrels per dayCh