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1、unit 1 TextALove and logic: The story of a fallacy愛情與邏輯:謬誤的故事1 I had my first date with Polly after I made the trade with my roommate Rob. Thatyear every guy on campus had a leather jacket, and Rob couldnt stand the idea ofbeing the only football player who didnt, so he made a pact that hed give me
2、his girlin exchange for my jacket. He wasnt the brightest guy. Polly wasnt too shrewd,either.聰明,而他的女友波莉也不太精明。2 But she was pretty, well-off, didnt dye her hair strange colors or wear too muchmakeup. She had the right background to be the girlfriend of a dogged, brilliantlawyer. If I could show the e
3、lite law firms I applied to that I had a radiant, well-spokencounterpart by my side, I just might edge past the competition.可能在競聘中以微弱優(yōu)勢獲勝。3 Radiant she was already. I could dispense her enough pearls of wisdom to makeher well-spoken.“光彩照人”,她已經(jīng)是了。而我也能施予她足夠多的“智慧之珠”,讓她變得“談吐優(yōu)雅”。4 After a banner day out,
4、 I drove until we were situated under a big old oak tree on ahill off the expressway. What I had in mind was a little eccentric. I thought the venuewith a perfect view of the luminous city would lighten the mood. We stayed in the car,and I turned down the stereo and took my foot off the brake pedal.
5、 What are wegoing to talk about? she asked.“我們要談些什么?”她問道。5 Logic.“邏輯學(xué)。”6 Cool, she said over her gum.“好酷啊,”她一邊嚼著口香糖一邊說。7 The doctrine of logic, I said, is a staple of clear thinking. Failures in logic distortthe truth, and some of them are well known. First lets look at the fallacy DictoSimpliciter.
6、8 Great, she agreed.“好啊,”她表示同意。9 Dicto Simpliciter means an unqualified generalization. For example: Exercise isgood. Therefore, everybody should exercise.所以每個(gè)人都應(yīng)該運(yùn)動(dòng)。”10 She nodded in agreement.她點(diǎn)頭表示贊同。11 I could see she was stumped. Polly, I explained, its too simple a generalization.If you have, s
7、ay, heart disease or extreme obesity, exercise is bad, not good.Therefore, you must say exercise is good for most people.有心臟病或者超級(jí)肥胖癥什么的,運(yùn)動(dòng)就變得有害而不是有益。所以你應(yīng)該說,運(yùn)動(dòng)對(duì)大多數(shù)人來說是有益的?!?2 Next is Hasty Generalization. Self-explanatory, right? Listen carefully: You cantspeak French. Rob cant speak French. Looks li
8、ke nobody at this school can speakFrench.羅伯也不會(huì)說法語,那么這所學(xué)校里好像是沒有人會(huì)說法語?!?3 Really? said Polly, amazed. Nobody?“是嗎?”波莉吃驚地說?!皼]有人嗎?”14 This is also a fallacy, I said. The generalization is reached too hastily. Too fewinstances support such a conclusion.的例證太少了?!?5 She seemed to have a good time. I could sa
9、fely say my plan was underway. I tookher home and set a date for another conversation.家,并且定下了下一次約會(huì)交談的日子。16 Seated under the oak the next evening I said, Our first fallacy tonight is called AdMisericordiam.文不對(duì)題?!?7 She nodded with delight.她高興地點(diǎn)了點(diǎn)頭。18 Listen closely, I said. A man applies for a job. W
10、hen the boss asks him what hisqualifications are, he says he has six children to feed.他有六個(gè)孩子要撫養(yǎng)?!?9 Oh, this is awful, awful, she whispered in a choked voice.“哇,這太可怕了,太可怕了,”她哽咽著輕聲說道。20 Yes, its awful, I agreed, but its no argument. The man never answered thebosss question. Instead he appealed to the
11、 bosss sympathy Ad Misericordiam.“對(duì),是挺可怕的,”我表示贊同地說,“但這不是理由。這個(gè)人根本沒有回答老板的問題,而只是在博取老板的同情,這就是文不對(duì)題?!?1 She blinked, still trying hard to keep back her tears.她眨著眼睛,仍在竭力地忍住眼淚。22 Next, I said carefully, we will discuss False Analogy. An example, studentsshould be allowed to look at their textbooks during ex
12、ams, because surgeons haveX-rays to guide them during surgery.“接下來”,我小心地說,“我們來討論錯(cuò)誤類比。舉個(gè)例子:學(xué)生考試時(shí)應(yīng)該允許看課本,因?yàn)橥饪漆t(yī)生在做手術(shù)時(shí)可以看 X 光片?!?3 I like that idea, she said.“我喜歡這個(gè)主意,”她說。24 Polly, I groaned, dont derail the discussion. The inference is wrong. Doctorsarent taking a test to see how much they have learned
13、, but students are. Thesituations are altogether different. You cant make an analogy between them.25 I still think its a good idea, said Polly.“我仍然認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)好主意,”波莉說。26 With five nights of diligent work, I actually made a logician out of Polly. She wasan analytical thinker at last. The time had come for
14、 the conversion of our relationshipfrom academic to romantic.夠分析思考了?,F(xiàn)在應(yīng)該是時(shí)候讓我們的關(guān)系從學(xué)術(shù)向浪漫發(fā)展了。27 Polly, I said when next we sat under our oak, tonight we wont discussfallacies.輯謬誤了?!?8 Oh? she said, a little disappointed.“哦?”她回答說,有一點(diǎn)失望。29 Favoring her with a grin, I said, We have now spent five evening
15、s together. Weget along pretty well. We make a pretty good couple.我贊許地對(duì)她笑了笑,說:“我們在一起已經(jīng)度過了五個(gè)晚上,相互之間挺合得來,我們是蠻相配的一對(duì)?!?0 Hasty Generalization, said Polly brightly. Or as a normal person might say, thatsa little premature, dont you think?你不這樣認(rèn)為嗎?”31 I laughed with amusement. Shed learned her lessons well
16、, far surpassing myexpectations. Sweetheart, I said, patting her hand in a tolerant manner, five datesis plenty. After all, you dont have to eat a whole cake to know its good.我被逗得笑了起來,她功課還真學(xué)得不錯(cuò),大大超過了我的預(yù)期?!坝H愛的,”掉整個(gè)蛋糕才知道它是不是好吃。”32 False Analogy, said Polly promptly. Your premise is that dating is like
17、 eating. Butyoure not a cake. Youre a boy.你是個(gè)男孩。”33 I laughed with somewhat less amusement, hiding my dread that shed learned herlessons too well. A few more false steps would be my doom. I decided to changetactics and try flattery instead.我又笑了笑,不過不覺得那么有趣了,同時(shí)還不能表露出我害怕她學(xué)得太好了。再錯(cuò)幾步我可就無法挽回了。我決定改變策略,轉(zhuǎn)而嘗試
18、奉承她的辦法。34 Polly, I love you. Please say youll go out with me. Im nothing without you.“波莉,我愛你。請答應(yīng)做我的女朋友,沒有你我什么也不是?!?5 Ad Misericordiam, she said.“文不對(duì)題,”她說。36 You certainly can discern a fallacy when you see it, I said, my hopes starting tocrumble. But dont take them so literally. I mean this is all a
19、cademic. You know thethings you learn in school dont have anything to do with real life.學(xué)的東西和實(shí)際生活根本沒有什么聯(lián)系。”37 Dicto Simpliciter, she said. Besides, you really should practice what youpreach.“絕對(duì)判斷,”她說道,“而且,你自己教的東西應(yīng)該自己身體力行?!?8 I leaped to my feet, my temper flaring up. Will you or will you not go out
20、withme?我一下跳了起來,怒火中燒,“你到底愿不愿意做我的女朋友?”39 No to your proposition, she replied.“我不愿意,”她答道。40 Why? I demanded.“為什么?”我追問道。41 Im more interested in a different petitioner Rob and I are back together.“我對(duì)另一位求愛者更感興趣羅伯和我重歸于好了。”42 With great effort, I said calmly, How could you give me the axe over Rob? Look at
21、me, an ingenious student, a tremendous intellectual, a man with an assured future.Look at Rob, a muscular idiot, a guy wholl never know where his next meal is comingfrom. Can you give me one good reason why you should be with him?過人的學(xué)生,一個(gè)不同凡響的學(xué)者,一個(gè)前途無量的人。再看看羅伯,一個(gè)肌肉么要選擇跟他?”43 Wow, what presumption! I
22、ll put it in a way someone as brilliant as you canunderstand, retorted Polly, her voice dripping with sarcasm. Full disclosure Ilike Rob in leather. I told him to say yes to you so he could have your jacket!“喔,這是什么假設(shè)啊!為了讓像你這樣聰明的人能夠明白,我這么說吧,”波他同意你們的協(xié)議的,這樣他就能擁有你的夾克!”TextBWhy do smart people do dumb th
23、ings?聰明人為何會(huì)做蠢事?1 Orthodox views prize intelligence and intellectual rigor highly in the modern realmof universities and tech industry jobs. One of the underlying assumptions of thisvalue system is that smart people, by virtue of what theyve learned, will formulatebetter decisions. Often this is true
24、. Yet psychologists who study humandecision-making processes have uncovered cognitive biases common to all people,regardless of intelligence, that can lead to poor decisions in experts and laymen alike.傳統(tǒng)觀念將智力和思維的縝密性看作現(xiàn)代大學(xué)領(lǐng)域和科技產(chǎn)業(yè)工作的重要素質(zhì)。這一價(jià)值體系所隱含的前提是,聰明人借助自己豐富的學(xué)識(shí)會(huì)作出更高明的決定。在大多數(shù)情況下,確實(shí)如此。但是,研究人類決策過程的心理
25、學(xué)家們卻發(fā)現(xiàn)了每個(gè)人身上都常見的“認(rèn)知偏差”。不管智力水平如何,這些認(rèn)知偏差都會(huì)引導(dǎo)人們作出錯(cuò)誤的決定,不論他們是專家還是門外漢。2 Thankfully these biases can be avoided. Understanding how and in what situationsthey occur can give you an awareness of your own limitations and allow you to factorthem into your decision-making.能意識(shí)到自身的缺陷,并在決策過程中考慮到這些因素的影響。3 One of t
26、he most common biases is what is known as the fundamental attributionerror. Through this people attribute the failures of others to character flaws and theirown to mere circumstance, subconsciously considering their own characters to bestainless. Jenkins lost his job because of his incompetence; I l
27、ost mine because ofthe recession. It also leads us to attribute our own success to our qualifications,discounting luck, while seeing others success as the product of mere luck.而不是運(yùn)氣,而將別人的成功僅僅看作是運(yùn)氣使然。4 In other words, we typically demand more accountability from others than we dofrom ourselves. Not o
28、nly does this lead to petty judgments about other people, italso leads to faulty risk assessment when you assume that certain bad things onlyhappen to others. For example, you might assume, without evidence, that the priceof your house will go up even though 90 percent of them have dropped in price,
29、because you yourself are more competent.胸狹窄地對(duì)別人進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)也會(huì)由于假定某種壞事只會(huì)發(fā)生在別人身上而致使我值,哪怕周圍百分之九十的房子都已經(jīng)貶值了,因?yàn)槟憧傉J(rèn)為自己的能力更強(qiáng)。5 Confirmation bias is sometimes found together with fundamental attribution error.This one has two parts. First, we tend to gather and rely upon information that onlyconfirms our existing vi
30、ews. Second, we avoid or veto things that refute ourpreexisting hypotheses.“確定性偏差”有時(shí)會(huì)和“基本歸因錯(cuò)誤”一并出現(xiàn)。這種偏差包含兩部分:第回避或否認(rèn)那些與自己之前所持的假設(shè)相左的信息。6 For example, imagine that you suspect your computer has been hacked. Every timeit stalls or has a little error, you assume that it was triggered by a hacker and that
31、your suspicions are valid. This bias plays an especially big role in rivalries betweentwo opposing views. Each side partitions their own beliefs in a logic-proof loop, andclaims their opponent is failing to recognize valid points. Outwitting confirmationbias therefore requires exploring both sides o
32、f an argument with equal diligence.比如說,假設(shè)你懷疑自己的電腦受到了黑客攻擊,那么它每次死機(jī)或出個(gè)小錯(cuò),敵對(duì)觀點(diǎn)的對(duì)抗中會(huì)起到尤其重要的作用。每一方都會(huì)把自己的觀點(diǎn)隔離出來,定性偏差”,就要以同樣的努力認(rèn)真探究論點(diǎn)的正反兩面。7 Similar to confirmation bias is the overconfidence bias. In an ideal world, we couldbe correct 100 percent of the time we were 100 percent sure about something,correct
33、 80 percent of the time we were 80 percent sure about something, and so on.In reality, peoples confidence vastly exceeds the accuracy of those judgments. Thisbias most frequently comes into play in areas where someone has no direct evidenceand must make a guess estimating how many people are in a cr
34、owded plaza, forexample, or how likely it will rain. To make matters worse, even when people areaware of overconfidence bias, they will still tend to overstate the chances that theyare correct. Confidence is no prophet and is best used together with availableevidence. When witnesses are called to te
35、stify in a court trial, the confidence in theirtestimony is measured along with and against the evidence at hand.與“確定性偏差”相類似的是“過度自信偏差”。在一個(gè)理想的世界,當(dāng)我們百事時(shí),我們就百分之八十地正確,以此類推。但在現(xiàn)實(shí)中,人們的信心卻大大超過了其判斷的準(zhǔn)確度。在一個(gè)人缺乏直接證據(jù)而必須要作出某種猜測的情況下,信任度是通過已經(jīng)獲取的相符或相反的證據(jù)來度量的。8 The availability bias is also related to errors in estim
36、ation, in that we tend toestimate what outcome is more likely by how easily we can recount an example frommemory. Since the retention and retrieval of memories is biased toward vivid,sensational, or emotionally charged examples, decisions based on them can oftenlead to strange, inaccurate conclusion
37、s.決定也往往會(huì)是奇怪或不準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)論。9 In action this bias might lead someone to cancel a trip to, for example, the CanaryIslands because of a report that the biggest plane crash in history happened there.Likewise some people might stop going out at night for fear of assault or rape.犯或者強(qiáng)暴而不敢再在晚上出門。10 Repelling the av
38、ailability bias calls for an empirical approach to a particulardecision, one not based on the obscured reality of vivid memory. If there is a lowincidence of disaster, like only one out of 100,000 plane landings results in a crash, itis safe to fly to the Canary Islands. If one out of one million pe
39、ople who go out isassaulted, it is safe to go out at night.要排除“可得性偏差”,就必須在作某一具體決定時(shí),以實(shí)證方法所取得的證據(jù)行也就仍是安全的。11 The sunk cost fallacy has a periodic application and was first identified byeconomists. A good example of how it works is the casino slot machine. Gamblerswith a high threshold for risk put mone
40、y into a slot machine hoping for a big return,but with each pull of the lever they lose some money playing the odds. If they havebeen pulling the lever many times in a row without success, they might decide thatthey had better keep spending money at the machine, or they will have wastedeverything th
41、ey already put in.他們之前投入的成本就悉數(shù)浪費(fèi)了。12 The truth is that every pull of the lever has the same winning probability of nearlyone in a trillion, regardless of how much money has been put in before theprevious plays were sunk costs.小的之前投入的那些即為沉沒成本。13 In everyday life this can lead people to stay in damagi
42、ng situations because of howmuch they have already put in, stuck on the erroneous belief that the value of thattime or energy they have invested will decay or disappear if they leave. The wisestcourse is to recognize the effects of the sunk cost fallacy and to leave a bad situationregardless of how
43、much you have already invested.成本謬誤導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果,離開糟糕的境況,不論之前已投入了多少。14 While there are still more biases, the key to avoiding them remains the same:When a decision matters, it is best to rely on watertight logic and a carefulexamination of the evidence and to remain aware that what seems like goodintuition
44、is always subject to errors of judgment.直覺總是很容易導(dǎo)致判斷失誤。unit 2 TextAThe confusing pursuit of beauty令人困惑的對(duì)美的追求1 If youre a man, at some point a woman will ask you how she looks.如果你是一位男士,肯定在某個(gè)時(shí)候會(huì)有女士問你她看起來怎么樣。2 You must be careful how you answer this question. The best technique is to forman honest yet s
45、ensitive response, then promptly excuse yourself for some kind ofemergency. Trust me, this is the easiest way out. No amount of rehearsal will helpyou come up with the right answer.回答,然后借口有急事馬上脫身。相信我,這是最簡單的方法。對(duì)于她的這一問題,無論你事先練習(xí)多少次,都不會(huì)找到正確答案。3 The problem is that men do not think of their looks in the
46、same way women do.Most men form an opinion of themselves in seventh grade and stick to it for the restof their lives. Some men think theyre irresistibly desirable, and they refuse to changethis opinion even when they grow bald and their faces visibly wrinkle as they age.4 Most men, I believe, are no
47、t arrogant about their looks. If the transient thoughtpasses through their minds at all, they like to think of themselves as average-looking.Being average doesnt bother them; average is fine. They dont affix much value totheir looks, or think of them in terms of aesthetics. Their primary form of bea
48、uty careis to shave themselves, which is essentially the same care they give to their lawns. If,at the end of his four minute allotment of time for grooming, a man has managed towipe most of the shaving cream out of the strands of his hair and isnt bleeding toobadly, he feels hes done all he can.男性來
49、說,如果能花四分鐘刮刮胡子,結(jié)束之后再把粘到頭發(fā)上的剃須膏擦凈,又沒有出血太厲害,他就覺得自己已經(jīng)盡心盡力了。5 Women do not look at themselves this way. If I had to guess what most womenthink about their appearance, it would be: Not good enough. No matter howattractive a woman may be, her perception of herself is eclipsed by the beautyindustry. She has
50、 trouble thinking Im beautiful. She magnifies the smallestimperfections in her body and imagines them as glaring flaws the whole world willnotice and ridicule.顯,以至于全世界的人都會(huì)注意到并且嘲笑她。6 Why do women consider their looks so deficient? This chronic insecurity isntinborn, but created through the interactio
51、n of many complex psychological andsocietal factors, beginning with the dolls we give them as children. Girls grow upplaying with dolls proportioned so that, if they were human, they would be sevenfeet tall and weigh 61 pounds, with tiny thighs and a large upper body. This is anabsurd standard to li
52、ve up to, especially when you consider the size of the dolls waist,a relative measurement physically impossible for a living human to achieve. Contrastthis absurd standard with that presented to little boys with their action figures.Most of the toys that young boys have played with were weird-lookin
53、g, like the onecalled Buzz-Off that was part human, part flying insect. This guy was not a looker, buthe was still extremely self-confident. You could not imagine him saying to the others,Is this accessory the right shade of violet for this outfit?為什么女性會(huì)把自己的外貌想得這么差呢?這種長期的不安全感并不是與生俱原為真人大小的話,就會(huì)是 7 英尺高
54、,61 英磅重,大腿纖細(xì),上身豐滿。要達(dá)相對(duì)尺寸對(duì)任何一個(gè)活人來說都是不可企及的。與女孩玩具的這種荒唐標(biāo)準(zhǔn)相比,小男孩們得到的“動(dòng)作玩偶”卻是完全不同的模樣。大多數(shù)男孩的玩具都樣貌古怪,例如那個(gè)叫作“蜜蜂俠”的玩偶,一半像人,一半像會(huì)飛的昆蟲。這個(gè)配飾的紫羅蘭色和這件外套配不配呢?”7 But women grow up thinking they need to look like Barbie dolls or girls onmagazine covers, which for most women is impossible. Nonetheless, themultibillion-
55、dollar beauty industry, complete with its own aisle in the grocery store, isdevoted to constant warfare on female self-esteem, convincing women that theymust buy all the newest moisturizing creams, bronzing powders and appliances thatpromise to stimulate and restore their skin. I once saw an Oprah S
56、how in whichsupermodel Cindy Crawford dispensed makeup tips to the studio audience. Cindyhad all these middle-aged women apply clay masks and other wrinkle-removingproducts to their faces; she stressed how important it was to adhere to theguidelines, like applying products via the tips of their fing
57、ers to protect elasticity. Allthe women dutifully did this, even though it was obvious to any rational observerthat, no matter how carefully they applied these products, they would never haveCindy Crawfords face or complexion.然而,女性在成長過程中卻認(rèn)為自己應(yīng)該長得像芭比娃娃或雜志的封面女郎那樣,這對(duì)大多數(shù)女性來說是不可能的。盡管如此,產(chǎn)值達(dá)幾十億美元的美容業(yè),肌膚活力。
58、我曾經(jīng)看過一期奧普拉脫口秀,在節(jié)目中,超級(jí)名模辛迪克勞這些產(chǎn)品,她們都不可能擁有辛迪那樣的面容或膚色。8 Im not saying that men are superior. Im just saying that youre not going to get agroup of middle-aged men to plaster cosmetics to themselves under the instructionof Brad Pitt in hopes of looking more like him. Men dont face the same societal focus
59、purely on physical beauty, and theyre encouraged to reach out to othercharacteristics to promote their self-esteem. They might say to Brad: Oh yeah? Well,what do you know about lawn care, pretty boy?的指導(dǎo)下把化妝品敷到自己臉上,期望自己能看起來更像布拉德。與女性不同,9 Of course women argue that they become obsessed with appearance
60、as a reactionto pressure from men. The truth is that most men think beauty is more than justlipstick and perfume and take no notice of these extra details. I have never once, inmore than 40 years of listening to men talk about women, heard a man say, She hadgorgeous fingernails! To most men, little
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