惠悅國(guó)際-定制年金產(chǎn)品咨詢報(bào)告課件

DesigningannuityproductsforconsumersneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworth

Partner,WatsonWyattmike.wadsworth@May2003 DesigningannuityproductsforAgendaOptionsforgeneratinglifetimeincomeConsumerneedsInvestingforlifeManagingsurvivalAnewmodelAgendaOptionsforgeneratingl"Idon'twanttoachieveimmortalitythroughmywork-Iwanttoachieveitbynotdying"WoodyAllen"Idon'twanttoachieveimmor"Peoplewillsoonlivetwiceaslongastoday,andhavethepotentialtolivefor1200years"JohnHarris,ScientistMemberofUKHumanGeneticsCommissionasreportedSundayTimes,25June2000"PeoplewillsoonlivetwiceaFuneralfirmhitby29%profitfallNotenoughpeoplearedyingintheUS,accordingtoServiceCorporationInternational,theworld'slargestfuneralservicescompanyTimes,2October1999Funeralfirmhitby29%profitScaleofopportunities

Peopleover65Source:USBureauoftheCensusScaleofopportunities

PeopleAnnuityversusbondyieldIncometakenmonthlyinadvance;interestrate5%paAnnuityincomebrokendownintocapitalelementandthebalance(ieinterestelement)AnnuityversusbondyieldIncomOptionsforretirementincome100%PensionerInvestmentGuaranteesPensioner

Survival

GuaranteesTraditionalAnnuityLump

Sum??WatsonWyattPartners2000

0%0%Optionsforretirementincome1Traditionalannuities

SomeimportantquestionsHowmuchdotheguaranteescost?Howvaluablearetheytocustomers?earlyinretirement/laterinretirement?accordingtootherassets?Howwilllifestylesandneedschangeinretirement?Willcustomerschangetheirmindsovertime?Traditionalannuities

SomeimpKeyissuesfordesign

ThePensionerChoice(investment)Flexibility(income)Protection(survival)Communication(tradeoffs)FailsafeKeyissuesfordesign

ThePensAlifetimeassetallocationmodel

TraditionalEitherlumpsumOrannuityRetireRetireOptimumreturn

(equities?)Optimumreturn

(equities?)CashBondsBonds?WatsonWyattPartners2000

AlifetimeassetallocationmoAlifetimeassetallocationmodel

ProposedOptimumreturn

(equities?)Optimumreturn

(equities?)BondsRetire?WatsonWyattPartners2000

AlifetimeassetallocationmoEffectofinvestmentgrowthon

supportableincome-malesBaseincomesupportablecalculatedat5%.

Incomemultiple=incomesupportableassumingextrainvestmentreturnresultingfromequityinvestmentof1,2,3,4or5%paaftercharges,dividedbybaseincome.Mortalityaspreviously?WatsonWyattPartners2000

EffectofinvestmentgrowthonPlanningretirementincomeTheconsumerproblemis..... HowlongwillIlive?LifespanisadistributionnotanexpectationPlanningretirementincomeTheDistributionofdeaths

Retirementatage60Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Distributionofdeaths

RetiremDistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge75now?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001DistributionofdeathsbyageDistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge90now?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001DistributionofdeathsbyageStandarddeviationofdeaths,as

aproportionoflifeexpectancyMortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Standarddeviationofdeaths,MethodofcalculationNon-annuitisedfundIncomeeachyeardefinedas:

Fundvalue/annuityfactorAnnuityfactorcalculatedatassumedinvestmentreturnof0%or7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnachievedequalto7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnassumed:(exclexpenses)Investmentreturnachieved:7%pa(exclexpenses)Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Initialfund￡100,000Maleaged60atoutset?WatsonWyattPartners2000Progressionofincome:

spreadingfundoverfuturelifeexpectationMethodofcalculationInvestmenProgressionofincome-annuitisedfundversus

non-annuitisedfund Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Maleaged60atoutset?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Progressionofincome-annuitSupplierviewofmortalityguaranteesMortalityimprovingHowfast 1%pa?2%pa?3%pa?Infuture?Scopetoreview?Guaranteesare(too)expensive?SupplierviewofmortalityguaMortalitydrift-

uncertainfutureimprovementsBothchartsshowexpecteddistributionofdeathsformale

aged60in1992,allowingforfutureimprovements.PMA92representsthemorerecentestimateCross-subsidyoperatesacrosseitherdistribution,andlongevityprotectionislargelyretainedevenifmortalityisreviewedDriftinanticipateddistributionallowingfornewerevidence?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortalitydrift-

uncertainfuExcesssurvivors-

PMA92comparedwithPMA80Costtoannuityproviderofnotreviewingmortalityrelatestopaymentsmadetothosesurvivorswhowerenotexpectedtolivesolong-

theredzone?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Excesssurvivors-

PMA92compaNewmodelInvestmentfund+InsuranceagainstsurvivalNewmodelLifetimeincomemodel-

benefitstatement

Units UnitPrice Value

￡ ￡StartofYear 10,000 10.00 100,000AnnuityPayments (975) (10,000)SurvivalBonus 295 3,000EffectofChangesinUnitPrice 4,860EndofYear 9,320 10.50 97,860TargetIncome

forNextYear 10,000?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Lifetimeincomemodel-

benefiEquivalentadditionalfund

growthresultingfrommortality

cross-subsidyMortality:PMA92/PFA92CalendarYear2001?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Equivalentadditionalfund

groEquivalentadditionalfundgrowth

MF

%pa%pa75 4.1 2.885 13.1 8.495 33.2 21.2NB:PartialsurvivalprotectionpossibleEquivalentadditionalfundgroFlexibleannuityreviewcycleInitialmax/minincomecalc'dAnnuitantselectsincomebetweenmaxandmintonextreviewPaymentsdeductedaccordingtoannuitantrequirements/survivalcredits/investment

returnsaddedFundbalancedeterminedatreviewMax/minincometonextreviewcalc'd?WatsonWyattPartners2000

FlexibleannuityreviewcycleIFlexibleincome

ThecorridorIncomelevel

chosenbytheannuitantannualmaximumannualminimum?WatsonWyattPartners2001

Flexibleincome

ThecorridorInCommunicationofbenefits

Incomeprojections-incometaken

initially=incomesupportableat7%pa?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Communicationofbenefits

IncoIncomeprojections-incometaken

initially=1.1xincomesupportable

at7%pa?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-incometaIncomeprojections-incometaken

initially=0.9xincomesupportable

at7%pa?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-incometaIncomeprojections-

variableinvestmentmodel?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-

variableFailsafeDefaultinvestmentstrategies,eg

equitiesbondsoverlifetimeProgrammedswitchingtoguaranteeathighageProgrammedswitchingtoguaranteeonsustainedmarketfall,egJapanscenarioVoluntaryswitchingNB:MorefeaturesbettersystemsFailsafeDefaultinvestmentstAnnuitydevelopments-unbundlingdynamicMoreimpairedlife/

enhancedannuitiesOtherg'teedannuitiesmoreexpensive/lessprofitableMoreequity

basedannuitiesWeakerlongevityguarantees?WatsonWyattPartners2002

Annuitydevelopments-unbundlEffectofLTCrideronincomeBeforeLTCclaimAfterLTCclaimTheproductisavariableannuitypriortoclaim,thenafixedLTCannuityafterclaim,plusacontinuingvariableannuity(whichcouldconverttoaconventionalannuity).Thelevelofbenefitischosenbytheinsured.C

L

A

I

MIncomesupportablewithnoLTCrider

(normalincome)LTCincome=50%ofincomepre-claim

Income=~96.5%ofnormalLTCincome=100%ofincomepre-claim

Income=~92.5%ofnormalEffectofLTCrideronincomeBAdvantagesoflifetimeincomemodelPensionersnaturalextensiontoDCpensionvehiclechooseandvaryassetallocationflexibilityofincomeoptimiseincomerelativetoriskInsurers/fundmanagerslongevityriskmanageablepotentialsegmentationofrisksnotrestrictedbyavailablebond(orother)investmentsglobalmultimarketapplicationAlsofinancialplanners/bondsuppliersAdvantagesoflifetimeincomeDesigningannuityproductsforconsumerneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworth

Partner,WatsonWyattmike.wadsworth@May2002DesigningannuityproductsforDesigningannuityproductsforconsumersneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworth

Partner,WatsonWyattmike.wadsworth@May2003 DesigningannuityproductsforAgendaOptionsforgeneratinglifetimeincomeConsumerneedsInvestingforlifeManagingsurvivalAnewmodelAgendaOptionsforgeneratingl"Idon'twanttoachieveimmortalitythroughmywork-Iwanttoachieveitbynotdying"WoodyAllen"Idon'twanttoachieveimmor"Peoplewillsoonlivetwiceaslongastoday,andhavethepotentialtolivefor1200years"JohnHarris,ScientistMemberofUKHumanGeneticsCommissionasreportedSundayTimes,25June2000"PeoplewillsoonlivetwiceaFuneralfirmhitby29%profitfallNotenoughpeoplearedyingintheUS,accordingtoServiceCorporationInternational,theworld'slargestfuneralservicescompanyTimes,2October1999Funeralfirmhitby29%profitScaleofopportunities

Peopleover65Source:USBureauoftheCensusScaleofopportunities

PeopleAnnuityversusbondyieldIncometakenmonthlyinadvance;interestrate5%paAnnuityincomebrokendownintocapitalelementandthebalance(ieinterestelement)AnnuityversusbondyieldIncomOptionsforretirementincome100%PensionerInvestmentGuaranteesPensioner

Survival

GuaranteesTraditionalAnnuityLump

Sum??WatsonWyattPartners2000

0%0%Optionsforretirementincome1Traditionalannuities

SomeimportantquestionsHowmuchdotheguaranteescost?Howvaluablearetheytocustomers?earlyinretirement/laterinretirement?accordingtootherassets?Howwilllifestylesandneedschangeinretirement?Willcustomerschangetheirmindsovertime?Traditionalannuities

SomeimpKeyissuesfordesign

ThePensionerChoice(investment)Flexibility(income)Protection(survival)Communication(tradeoffs)FailsafeKeyissuesfordesign

ThePensAlifetimeassetallocationmodel

TraditionalEitherlumpsumOrannuityRetireRetireOptimumreturn

(equities?)Optimumreturn

(equities?)CashBondsBonds?WatsonWyattPartners2000

AlifetimeassetallocationmoAlifetimeassetallocationmodel

ProposedOptimumreturn

(equities?)Optimumreturn

(equities?)BondsRetire?WatsonWyattPartners2000

AlifetimeassetallocationmoEffectofinvestmentgrowthon

supportableincome-malesBaseincomesupportablecalculatedat5%.

Incomemultiple=incomesupportableassumingextrainvestmentreturnresultingfromequityinvestmentof1,2,3,4or5%paaftercharges,dividedbybaseincome.Mortalityaspreviously?WatsonWyattPartners2000

EffectofinvestmentgrowthonPlanningretirementincomeTheconsumerproblemis..... HowlongwillIlive?LifespanisadistributionnotanexpectationPlanningretirementincomeTheDistributionofdeaths

Retirementatage60Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Distributionofdeaths

RetiremDistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge75now?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001DistributionofdeathsbyageDistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge90now?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001DistributionofdeathsbyageStandarddeviationofdeaths,as

aproportionoflifeexpectancyMortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Standarddeviationofdeaths,MethodofcalculationNon-annuitisedfundIncomeeachyeardefinedas:

Fundvalue/annuityfactorAnnuityfactorcalculatedatassumedinvestmentreturnof0%or7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnachievedequalto7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnassumed:(exclexpenses)Investmentreturnachieved:7%pa(exclexpenses)Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Initialfund￡100,000Maleaged60atoutset?WatsonWyattPartners2000Progressionofincome:

spreadingfundoverfuturelifeexpectationMethodofcalculationInvestmenProgressionofincome-annuitisedfundversus

non-annuitisedfund Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Maleaged60atoutset?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Progressionofincome-annuitSupplierviewofmortalityguaranteesMortalityimprovingHowfast 1%pa?2%pa?3%pa?Infuture?Scopetoreview?Guaranteesare(too)expensive?SupplierviewofmortalityguaMortalitydrift-

uncertainfutureimprovementsBothchartsshowexpecteddistributionofdeathsformale

aged60in1992,allowingforfutureimprovements.PMA92representsthemorerecentestimateCross-subsidyoperatesacrosseitherdistribution,andlongevityprotectionislargelyretainedevenifmortalityisreviewedDriftinanticipateddistributionallowingfornewerevidence?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortalitydrift-

uncertainfuExcesssurvivors-

PMA92comparedwithPMA80Costtoannuityproviderofnotreviewingmortalityrelatestopaymentsmadetothosesurvivorswhowerenotexpectedtolivesolong-

theredzone?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Excesssurvivors-

PMA92compaNewmodelInvestmentfund+InsuranceagainstsurvivalNewmodelLifetimeincomemodel-

benefitstatement

Units UnitPrice Value

￡ ￡StartofYear 10,000 10.00 100,000AnnuityPayments (975) (10,000)SurvivalBonus 295 3,000EffectofChangesinUnitPrice 4,860EndofYear 9,320 10.50 97,860TargetIncome

forNextYear 10,000?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Lifetimeincomemodel-

benefiEquivalentadditionalfund

growthresultingfrommortality

cross-subsidyMortality:PMA92/PFA92CalendarYear2001?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Equivalentadditionalfund

groEquivalentadditionalfundgrowth

MF

%pa%pa75 4.1 2.885 13.1 8.495 33.2 21.2NB:PartialsurvivalprotectionpossibleEquivalentadditionalfundgroFlexibleannuityreviewcycleInitialmax/minincomecalc'dAnnuitantselectsincomebetweenmaxandmintonextreviewPaymentsdeductedaccordingtoannuitantrequirements/survivalcredits/investment

returnsaddedFundbalancedeterminedatreviewMax/minincometonextreviewcalc'd?WatsonWyattPartners2000

FlexibleannuityreviewcycleIFlexibleincome

ThecorridorIncomelevel

chosenbytheannuitantannualmaximumannualminimum?WatsonWyattPartners2001

Flexibleincome

ThecorridorInCommunicationofbenefits

Incomeprojections-incometaken

initially=incomesupportableat7%pa?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Communicationofbenefits

IncoIncomeprojections-incometaken

initially=1.1xincomesupportable

at7%pa?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-incometaIncomeprojections-incometaken

initially=0.9xincomesupportable

at7%pa?WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-incometaIncomeprojections-

variabl