大一上-管理學(xué)原理第7章決策

決策第7章陳亮博士華東理工大學(xué)商學(xué)院6–2學(xué)習(xí)綱要制定決策的假設(shè)和類(lèi)型理性有限理性直覺(jué)制定決策的步驟6–3學(xué)習(xí)綱要(續(xù))

問(wèn)題和決策的類(lèi)型6–4決策制定決策在兩個(gè)或多個(gè)方案中做出選擇6–5制定決策理性管理者所制定的決策是前后一致的，是追求特定條件下價(jià)值的最大化完美理性決策者隱含的假設(shè)是：是完全合理的，客觀的，合乎邏輯的已經(jīng)仔細(xì)審視問(wèn)題、查明所有可行的選擇有清晰具體的目標(biāo)將會(huì)選擇那些使組織利益最大化的方案而不是個(gè)人利益在先6–6圖表6–6理性假設(shè)6–7制定決策(續(xù))有限理性管理者理性的做出決策，但同時(shí)也受到自身信息處理能力的限制有限理性決策者隱含的假設(shè)：沒(méi)有搜索出并了解所有的備擇方案將滿(mǎn)足于—能解決問(wèn)題的第一種解決方案—而不是考慮所有的方案，選擇最優(yōu)方案進(jìn)而使產(chǎn)出最大化對(duì)制定決策的影響承諾升級(jí)：在過(guò)去決策的基礎(chǔ)上不斷增加承諾的現(xiàn)象，盡管有證據(jù)證明已經(jīng)做出的決策是錯(cuò)誤的6–8根據(jù)直覺(jué)決策大家介紹一下自己類(lèi)似的經(jīng)歷什么是直覺(jué)？6–9我們決策的特點(diǎn)

潛意識(shí)表意識(shí)情緒和行為本能與心智模式信息感覺(jué)過(guò)濾、加工、組織和解釋認(rèn)知1295%的決策是經(jīng)過(guò)途徑1實(shí)現(xiàn)的。自我6–10自我的特點(diǎn)自尊自信VS自卑自我肯定，自我價(jià)值的認(rèn)同自傲自私自我意識(shí)：自我保護(hù)意識(shí)，當(dāng)別人對(duì)你的意見(jiàn)、方案提出質(zhì)疑和建議時(shí)，反應(yīng)是對(duì)質(zhì)疑反駁，對(duì)建議表面接受，但實(shí)質(zhì)上是不接受的。6–11自我、情緒對(duì)決策的影響屁股決定腦袋一期貨公司，陳總、錢(qián)總、張總對(duì)銅期貨的投資安排；錢(qián)總對(duì)分析員提交的報(bào)告，非常不滿(mǎn)。6–12情緒對(duì)決策的影響見(jiàn)課件《情緒及其對(duì)決策的影響》6–13自我、情緒對(duì)決策的影響自我決策情緒6–14決策制定決策制定過(guò)程識(shí)別決策問(wèn)題和確定決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，以及為每個(gè)決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分配權(quán)重開(kāi)發(fā)、分析和選擇解決問(wèn)題的備選方案實(shí)施備擇方案評(píng)價(jià)決策結(jié)果6–15決策制定你們是怎么決定選購(gòu)電腦的？是理性的？有限理性？還是憑直覺(jué)？6–16圖表6–1

決策制定過(guò)程6–17步驟1：識(shí)別決策問(wèn)題問(wèn)題現(xiàn)在狀態(tài)和希望狀態(tài)之間的差異問(wèn)題特征管理者意識(shí)到問(wèn)題存在是“問(wèn)題”就變成了“問(wèn)題”迫于壓力去解決問(wèn)題管理者必須擁有職權(quán)、預(yù)算、信息或其他采取必要行動(dòng)的資源6–18步驟2：確定決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是解決問(wèn)題很重要的因素花費(fèi)——投資所需要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——失敗的概率顧客的期望——企業(yè)成長(zhǎng)步驟3：為決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分配權(quán)重決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不是同等重要的：為每一項(xiàng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分配權(quán)重，以便正確地規(guī)定他們的優(yōu)先次序6–19圖表6–2電腦采購(gòu)決策的指標(biāo)和權(quán)重指標(biāo) 權(quán)重存儲(chǔ)量 10電池壽命 8攜帶重量 6保修 4顯示質(zhì)量 36–20步驟4：開(kāi)發(fā)備擇方案確定可行的備擇方案列出可以解決問(wèn)題的備擇方案，無(wú)需進(jìn)行評(píng)估步驟5：分析備擇方案評(píng)價(jià)備擇方案的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)基于步驟2和步驟3評(píng)價(jià)備擇方案解決問(wèn)題的能力。6–21圖表6–3 根據(jù)決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)不同筆記本電腦的價(jià)值評(píng)估6–22步驟6：選擇備擇方案選擇最優(yōu)方案選擇得分最高的方案步驟7：實(shí)時(shí)備擇方案把備擇方案付諸行動(dòng)把決策傳達(dá)給有關(guān)人員并獲得他們對(duì)決策的承諾，將決策付諸行動(dòng)6–23圖表6–4根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和權(quán)重對(duì)不同筆記本電腦的評(píng)價(jià)6–24步驟8：評(píng)價(jià)決策結(jié)果通過(guò)方案產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果判斷其合理性選擇方案的實(shí)施對(duì)問(wèn)題解決的有效性如何?如果問(wèn)題沒(méi)有解決，問(wèn)題出在哪里?6–25直覺(jué)作用直覺(jué)決策一種潛意識(shí)的決策過(guò)程，基于決策者的經(jīng)驗(yàn)以及積累的判斷6–26直覺(jué)作用我們應(yīng)該百分百相信自己的直覺(jué)嗎？6–27直覺(jué)作用Thetotalnumberofpossibledifferentmovesinasinglefameofchessismorethanthenumberofsecondsthathaveelapsedsincethebigbangcreatedtheuniverse.Intuitionisthedefiningqualityofagreatchessplayer.---GarryKasparov6–28直覺(jué)作用"Ibelievethemostimportantthingisthatyoushouldtrustyourownfeelingandyourownintuition,andthenactaccordingly".whenfacedwithmorethanonepathofresearch,healwayschoosethemoreradicalone:"intuitionguidesme,givesmeafeelingaboutwhichdirectionIshouldcontinuein."apioneerinthenewfieldofquantuminformationandisrenownedforhisrealizationofquantumteleportationwithphotons.6–29直覺(jué)作用1992-1994,CEO,turnedthiscompanyfrombankruptcy;1994,tookKTM,aleaderinthemanufactureofoff-roadmotorcyclesintotheworldofstreetmotorcycles,acompletelydifferentbusiness;helpediteEurope'ssecond-largestsport-motorcyclemanufacturer,with15yearsof25percentrevenuegrowth.by2006,29percentofthecompany'srevenuesderivedfromitsstreetmotorcycles.StefanPierer,CEOofKTMSportmotorcyclesAG6–30直覺(jué)作用

WhenitcomestoreallyseriousbusinessdecisionsIultimatelyrelyonmyintuition.it'ssometimesthecasethatrationalargumentsspeakfororagainstsomething,butthensomehowthedecisonstillwon'tleavemeinpeace.IwakeupinthenightandhavethefeelingthatIshoulddoitdifferentlyafterall.KTMRC8視頻6–31直覺(jué)作用6–32直覺(jué)作用executivesroutinelyrelyontheirintuitionstosolvecomplexproblemswhenlogicalmethods(suchasacost-benefitanalysis)simplywon'tdo.thehigheruponthecorporateladderpeopleclimb,themorethey'llneedwell-honedbusinessinstincts.--Hayashi,20016–33直覺(jué)作用RalphS.Larsen,chairandCEOofJohnson&Johnson,explainsthedistinction:"Veryoften,peoplewilldoabrilliantjobupthroughthemiddlemanagementlevels,whereit'sveryheavilyquantitativeintermsofthedecision-making.Butthentheyreachseniormanagement,wheretheproblemsgetmorecomplexandambiguous,andwediscoverthattheirjudgmentorintuitionisnotwhatitshouldbe.Andwhenthathappens,it'saproblem;it'sabigproblem.""Oftenthereisabsolutelynowaythatyoucouldhavethetimetothoroughlyanalyzeeveryoneoftheoptionsoralternativesavailabletoyou,"saysLarsen."Soyouhavetorelyonyourbusinessjudgment."--Hayashi,20016–34直覺(jué)作用RichardAbdoo,chairandCEOofWisconsinEnergyCorporation,agrees."Aswemovetoaderegulatedmarketplace,wedon'thavethisslowprocessofhearingsandreviewandtwoyearstomakeadecision.Wenowhavetomakedecisionsinatimelymanner.Andthatmeansthatweprocessthebestinformationthat'savailableandinferfromitanduseourintuitiontomakeadecision"--Hayashi,20016–35直覺(jué)作用Butthetopjobsatanyorganizationallrequiresoundbusinessinstincts.J&J'sLarsenusesanexampletoexplainwhy:"Whensomeonepresentsanacquisitionproposaltome,thenumbersalwayslookterrific:thehurdlerateshavebeenmet;thereturnoninvestmentiswonderful;thegrowthrateisjustterrific.AndIgetallthereasonswhythiswouldbeagoodacquisition.Butit'satthatpoint--whenIhaveatremendousamountofquantitativeinformationthat'salreadybeenanalyzedbyverysmartpeople--thatIearnwhatIgetpaid.BecauseIwilllookatthatinformationandIwillknow,intuitively,whetherit'sagoodorbaddeal."--Hayashi,20016–36直覺(jué)作用After11yearsatthehelmofJ&J,Larsensaysthatonethinghisexperiencehastaughthimistolistentohisinstincts."Ignoringthemhasledtosomebaddecisions,"henotes.AddsAbdoo,"YouendupconsumingmoreRolaids,butyouhavetolearntotrustyourintuition.Otherwise,atthepointwhenyou'vegatheredenoughdatatobe99.99%certainthatthedecisionyou'reabouttomakeisthecorrectone,thatdecisionhaseobsolete."--Hayashi,20016–37直覺(jué)過(guò)程intuitivedecisionmakingisreallyone'sabilitytorecognizepatternsatlightingspeed--aprocessthatoftenhappensunconsciously.6–38直覺(jué)過(guò)程Initspurest

sense,intuitionisakindofcompetencethatenablestheintuitor(Wild,1938)to

understandorportrayawholeframe;thatis,somethingthatneitherexistsnorwas

clearlyoutlinedearlier.Yet,whenthatinspirationalmomenttakesplaceitcommonly

sparkssomeideaorthoughtthatwilllikelyengenderaninnovativesolution,avery

specialhumancreation,theunderstandingofacertainsituationorjustaconclusionto

anintricateproblem.Perhaps,thereinliesthereasonwhyJungconceiveditasthe

“noblestofhumangifts”6–39直覺(jué)過(guò)程KhatriandNgfoundthattheuseofintuitionis

positivelyassociatedwithorganisationalperformancebutonlyinunstableenvironments6–40直覺(jué)過(guò)程patternrecognitionInference(聯(lián)想)crossindexing（更抽象地聯(lián)想）6–41直覺(jué)的影響因素ExperienceMentalIntegrationGuidingPrinciples6–42MentalIntegrationHumancognitionisbasedonmentalintegration:wecannotthinkorfunctionwithoutit.First,weintegratesimilarexistentsweperceive:differenttables,trees,people,firmstoformtheconceptsof‘‘table’’,‘‘tree’’,‘‘man’’,‘‘business’’.Forexample,whenweobservemorethanoneitemoffur-niturewithaflatsurfacethatissupportedbylegsandusedforholdingobjects,weintegratethemintoaconcept‘‘table’’.Theconceptoftable(itsdefinition)servesasamentalfileholdingallourknowledgeabouttables;theconceptofbusinessisamentalfileforourknowledgeaboutbusinesses.Wefileinformationaboutthingsbelongingtothesameclassforquickrecallwhenweencounteranewentityorphenomenonthatbelongstothatclass.Therecalledinformationguidesouraction,forexample,bytellingushowtouseanewtableweobserve,orwhatgoalstosetforanewbusinesswefounded.6–43MentalIntegrationMentalintegrationoccursatincreasinglevelsofabstraction.Afterintegratingexistentsintoconcepts,westartintegratingconceptsintobroaderconcepts,suchasfurnitureandmanmadeobjects.Eventu-ally,weintegrateconceptsintoprinciples,suchas:infurnituredesign,formshouldfollowfunction;orcompaniesshoulddifferentiatetheirproductsfromthoseofcompetitors.Thishigherlevelintegrationintomoreabstractconceptsandprinciplesservesthesamepurposeastheintegrationofperceptsintoconcepts:itcondensesinformationtosavementalspaceandallowsarapidrecallofsuchinformation.6–44MentalIntegrationHowweintegrateknowledgegovernsourmentalfilingsystem.Thereisnoonesystemthateveryonefollowsautomatically,particularlyatthehigherlevelsofabstraction.Tointegratebyessentials,onemustfirstidentifytheessenceofwhateveroneisobserving.Theessenceofathing,eventorissueisitsmostfundamentalcharacteristicthatgivesrisetoandmakesitsothercharacteristicspossible.13Forexample,man’sabilitytousereason,whichgovernstherestofhisqualities,suchastheabilitytospeakortodesignandbuildfurnitureortoformandrunabusiness,ishismostfundamentalchar-acteristicdthereforeAristotledefinedmanas‘‘a(chǎn)rationalanimal’’.Ifessencesareidentifiedandknowledgeisintegratedintoconceptsandprinciplesbasedonthem,thesubconscious(intuitive)filingandretrievalofknowledgewillbefastandaccurate,facilitatingeffectivedecisionmaking.6–45MentalIntegrationForexample,theessenceofacompanyisitspurpose:productionofgoodsorservicesforaprofit.Ifageneralmanagerintegrateshisorherknowledgebasedonthis,heorshewillquicklyidentifythere-quirementsofprofitableproduction:securingcapitalandotherresources,tradingtheproducedgoodsandservicesatpricesthatexceedcosts,obtainingreturnsthatexceedtheinvestmentandbalancingriskwithreturn.Thismaysoundobvious,yettherearechiefexecutiveswhofailtoidentifyorapplytheessentialrequirementsofsustainedvaluecreation.TheleadershipofEnronisprobablyoneofthemoststrikingexamplesofafailuretoadheretooneofthemostfundamentalofsuchrequirements:focusonreality.Their‘‘WeMakeMarkets’’(WMM)licenceplateswereasignoftheirhubris,stem-mingfromthefailuretoobserverealitycorrectly,whichsignificantlycontributedtoEnron’scollapse.6–46GuidingPrinciplesIntegrationofknowledgebyessentialsnotonlymakesretrievingofinformationfasterandmoreac-curate,italsogivesdecisionmakersanindispensabletool:guidingprinciples.Principlesarethebroad-estintegrations:basedontheessencesofthings,theyidentifyunderlyingcause-effectrelationshipsthatapplytoawiderangeofspecificsituations.Principlesaregeneralisationsinducedfromobserva-tionsorpastexperienceaboutattainingagoal.Theyofferguidancetodecisionmakingineveryfield,suchasagriculture(‘‘cultivatethesoilbeforesowingtheseeds’’),nutrition(‘‘eatbalancedmealscon-sistingofthevariousfoodgroups’’)andcompetitivestrategy(‘‘differentiateyourproductsfromthoseofyourcompetitors’’).15ACEOintentoncreatingvalueforthecompany’sownersidentifiesaprin-ciple:‘‘Riskshouldbecommensuratewiththecompany’sresources.’’Whenencounteringaconcretechoice,heorsherecallsandappliestheprincipleandisabletoreachavalue-creatingdecisionquickly:‘‘DonotexploreforoilintheArcticwhenyoudonothaveresourcesandexpertisetomakeasignif-icantdiscoveryinashortenoughtimeframetoprovideareturncommensuratewiththerisk.’’6–47Howthe‘‘goodminds’’integratedbyessentialsTheoilandgasCEOswith‘‘goodminds’’demonstratedintegrationbyessentials(whereastheirlesseffectivecounterpartsdidnot).19Whendealingwiththescenario,theeffectiveexecutivesfocusedonwhatwasessential:thosefactorsthatmostfundamentallyaffectedprofitableproductionofoilandgasbythecompany.ThefollowingisatypicalassessmentoftheoptionofexploringforoilandgasintheArctic,basedonidentificationofessentials:‘‘It’stooriskyforapubliccompanyofthissizetogoexploringintheArctic.Itdoesnothavetheresourcestomakeasufficientinvestmenttogetareturnlargeenoughtojustifytherisk.ThepaybackintheArcticistoolong;youwouldnotseeanyproductionandrevenueforsevento10years.Theproductiondeclinesareabout20percentannuallyintheWesternCanadiansedimentarybasin;thecompanycannotwaitthatlongbutneedstoaddproductionsooner.Themarketexpectsfasterreturns.AndthecompanydoesnothaveanyexpertiseintheArcticdmakingtheriskevenhigher.’’6–48Howthe‘‘goodminds’’integratedbyessentialsSuchanevaluationshowshowtheeffectiveCEOsintuitivelyretrievedessentialsfromtheirsubconsciously-storedmemoryfiles:fundamentalrequirementsofprofitableproduction(e.g.,adequateresourcesandexpertise,balancedriskandreturn,apaybackperiodshortenough,replacingdecliningproduction,andmeetingmarketexpectations).ThisenabledthemtoanalysetheArcticoptionrationally,dismissitquicklyandtoconcentrateonothersthatwouldcreatevaluemoreeffectively.ThiscommentfromoneoftheeffectiveCEOsisrepresentative:‘‘Wehavecertainskillstoexecuteandcreatevaluebutwecan’tbringforwarddreams.Rightnow,makingmoneyoutoftheArcticisadream.Giventheproblem[theCEO]isfacingandthesizeofthecompany,investingintheArcticisnotgoingtogeneratereturnsthattheshareholderwouldfindacceptable.’’6–49Howthe‘‘goodminds’’integratedbyessentials

Incontrast,thelesseffectiveCEOsretrievednon-essentialknowledge,suchaspreviousaspirationsforinternationalexpansionorfearofcommittingtoanyoption.ThissuggeststhattheseCEOshadnotintegratedtheirknowledgebyessentials.Forexample,onelesseffectiveCEOwantedtoembracetheArcticoptionbecausehefoundit‘‘exciting’’:hehadalwayswantedtoexpandbeyondWesternCanadaanddidnotpayattentiontotheessentialproblemsofrisk,paybackandrequiredresources.AnotherlesseffectiveCEOwouldnotjudgeanyofthethreeoptionsandwantedtokeepthemall‘‘open’’,unwillingtocommittoadecision(despitethatbeingthetaskathand).ThethirdlesseffectiveCEOalsodidnotgettotheessentialsinthescenariobutinsteadproposedtosurveywhatotherswantedhimtodoandgavedetaileddescriptionsofstatisticalanalyseshewouldconductonprospectiveproperties.Whenintuitiondoesnotprovideknowledgeintegratedbyessentials,rationalevaluationisnotpossibleanddecisionmakingishampered.Insteadofessentialknowledge,thenot-so-effectiveCEOs’retrievalprocesswasbasedonvagueassociationsandemotions.Thisdidnothelpthemeffectivelyassessandmakeareasoneddecisionaboutthescenario.6–50GuidingPrinciples見(jiàn)論文

Incontrast,thelesseffectiveCEOsretrievednon-essentialknowledge,suchaspreviousaspirationsforinternationalexpansionorfearofcommittingtoanyoption.ThissuggeststhattheseCEOshadnotintegratedtheirknowledgebyessentials.Forexample,onelesseffectiveCEOwantedtoembracetheArcticoptionbecausehefoundit‘‘exciting’’:hehadalwayswantedtoexpandbeyondWesternCanadaanddidnotpayattentiontotheessentialproblemsofrisk,paybackandrequiredresources.AnotherlesseffectiveCEOwouldnotjudgeanyofthethreeoptionsandwantedtokeepthemall‘‘open’’,unwillingtocommittoadecision(despitethatbeingthetaskathand).ThethirdlesseffectiveCEOalsodidnotgettotheessentialsinthescenariobutinsteadproposedtosurveywhatotherswantedhimtodoandgavedetaileddescriptionsofstatisticalanalyseshewouldconductonprospectiveproperties.Whenintuitiondoesnotprovideknowledgeintegratedbyessentials,rationalevaluationisnotpossibleanddecisionmakingishampered.Insteadofessentialknowledge,thenot-so-effectiveCEOs’retrievalprocesswasbasedonvagueassociationsandemotions.Thisdidnothelpthemeffectivelyassessandmakeareasoneddecisionaboutthescenario.6–51直覺(jué)過(guò)程Hplexdecisionsbringintoplayaprocessinwhichknowledge,experienceandemotionsarelinked.Researchhasfoundthatpeoplewhohaveacquireddeepwellsofknowledgeandexperience--throughtheircuriosity,opennessandpropensitytoseizeopportunities--areabletoreachgoodintuitivedecisionsmuchmorefrequentlythanpeoplewhopossessarelativelylimitedsphereofexperience.6–52直覺(jué)過(guò)程patternrecognitionKleinhasdescribedintuitivedecisionmakingasapattern-recognitionprocess:cuesaboutthedecisionsituationleadadecisionmakertorecogniseafamiliarpattern(basedonpriorexperience)whichthenactivatesanactionscript,aroutinewayofrespondingthatmakesdeliberateanalysisunnecessary.6–53直覺(jué)過(guò)程patternrecognitionthemoreextensiveadecisionmaker'sexperience,themorepatternsheorshewillbefamiliarwith;themorepatterns,thebettertheintuition.6–54直覺(jué)過(guò)程patternrecognitionX:\MyworksinECUST\research\自我、決策和有心\materials\神奇大腦造就天才6–55直覺(jué)過(guò)程InferenceIndeed,researchonexpertshasclearlyestablishedthelinkbetweenrepeatedexposuretospecifictypesofprob-lemsthroughpracticeandtrainingandtheabilitytomakedecisionsaccuratelyandfast(Ericsson&Charness,1994;Simon,1987).Throughexpertise,moviedirectorsareabletorecognizeandmatchpatternsinapresentsituationwithsimilarpatternsinprevioussituations.Thisallowsthemtomakeanintuitivedecisionthatresolvesanexternalproblemandachievestaskeffectiveness.6–56直覺(jué)過(guò)程crossindexingTrulyinspireddecisions,however,seemtorequireanevenmoresophisticatedmechanism:cross-indexing.Indeed,theabilitytoseesimilarpatternsindisparatefieldsiswhatelevatesaperson'sintuitiveskillsfromgoodtosublime.Theyalsoconcludethatintuitionisasyntheticreasoningprocessatplayinalldecisions(andnotonlywhenspecificallycalledon)thatintegratesisolatedpiecesofdataintoatotalpicturebyaccessingasubconsciouslystoredreservoirofcumulativeexperience.<LessonsfromGoodMindsHowCEOsUseIntuition,AnalysisandGuidingPrinciplestoMakeStrategicDecisions>6–57直覺(jué)過(guò)程crossindexingBobLutzFordCobra6–58直覺(jué)過(guò)程crossindexingBobLutzDodgeViper6–59直覺(jué)過(guò)程crossindexingRememberBobLutz'sdecisiontobuildtheViper?Today,hejustifiesthatgutsymovebyusingananalogy."Whenyou'regoingtooslowinanairplane,"heexplains,"youraerodynamicdragbuildsupbecausethenoseoftheairplaneispositionedtoohighandyoucanactuallygettothepointwhere,evenatfullpower,youcan'tgettheairplanetoclimbanymore.Soyouronlysolutionistodropthenoseandtradeoffsomealtitudetogainspeed."Similarly,Chryslerinthelate1980shadlostsomuchmomentumthatitwasindangerofstalling.Topreventthat,theconventionalwisdomcalledforcostcuttingtogainaltitude.ButLutzknewbetter."Peopleweresaying,'You'relowandslowandyou'restrugglingforaltitude.WhatanincrediblybadtimetodropthenoseanddivesomemorebyspendingcashonafrivolousvehicleliketheDodgeViper]'"heremembers."ButtheVipergaveustheforwardmomentumwedesperatelyneeded,bothinternallyandexternallywiththefinancialcommunity,theautomobilemagazines,andallofthoseconstituenciesthatcreatethepsychologicalclimateinwhichyourcompanyeitherprospersordoesn't."6–60直覺(jué)過(guò)程crossindexingInhisvariedcareer,Pittmanhasseenmanypatternsatwork.AcofounderofMTV,herightlyrealizedwhenhefirstarrivedatAmericaOnlinethatthecompany'ssinglemostimportantjobwastocontinuebuildingandestablishingitsbrand--justasithadbeenforMTVinitsearlydays.PittmanalsopushedhardforAOLtocontinuemovingawayfromabusinessmodelbasedonconsumersubscriptions.(Previously,AOLhadchargedcustomersbythehourbeforegoingtoaflatmonthlyfee.)Thebiggerbucks,Pittmanknew,wereinadvertisingandmercerevenues,notinsubscriptions."Mostpeoplehadbeenthinkingaboutadvertisingasmoneycomingoutofpeople'smediabudgets.Iwantedtotakeabroaderviewanddefineadvertisingaswhatitreallyis:rentingourconsumerrelationshiptounaffiliatedthirdpartiesformoney."Thatchangeinthinkingwasamasterstroke,enablingAOLtomovetoamultibillion-dollarrevenuestreaminjustafewyears.HowcouldPittmanhaveintuitedthat?PerhapshewasinfluencedbyhispreviousexperienceatSixFlagsEntertainment:theprofitsfromamusementparksderivemainlyfromsellingmerchandiseandrefreshments,notfromtheadmissiontickets.6–61直覺(jué)過(guò)程crossindexingHeremindsusthatNewtonhadconceivedtheuniversalattractionlawpreviouslytowhenthefallingappledemonstratedtohim,inasubtleway,howitworked.6–62直覺(jué)的影響因素Wedistinguishintuitivedecision-makingfromemotionsbynotingthattheformerisanon-consciousinformationprocessingsystemaimedatmakingjudgments(Dane&Pratt,2007),whilethelatterareinputstothisprocess.6–63直覺(jué)的影響因素Fearcanthusintuitivelyalertpeopl