China Basic Materials Monitor- August 2022- One of the better Augusts此為英文文檔

__OneofthebetterAugusts:AfteraveryweakJuneandJuly,onthegrounddemandsawmildimprovementsequentiallyinAugust,makingtheorderbooktrendoneofthebetteronesversusthehistoricalseasonalpattern.Combinedwithmoresupplycuts,thenegativemarginsforbasicmaterialsarebeingrepairedtobreakevenlevels.Speci?cally,demandpickupshavebeenseeninsteel,cement,andcopper,whilealuminumfurthersoftened.Forenddemand,thetrendsinairconditioner,autoandstategridarepositive,whilepropertycompletionhasstartedtodeteriorate(basedonfeedbackfrommetalfabricatorsandglasssuppliers).Furthermore,intheeyesofmostproducers,theoutlookfortheupcomingpeakseasonwillremaingloomy.Weestimatecurrentdemandisrunningat+852-2978-2678|trina+852-2978-6545|joy.x.zhang@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.+86(21)2401-8923|arthur.deng@BeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimited+852-2978-0110|roy.shi@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.+852-2978-7200|christina.qin@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.NetMoMorderbooktrendin%ofrespondents5-20%belowthenormallevelsforsteel,0-15%belowforcement,5-40%belowforaluminum,and5%belowforcopper.Channelchecks:Basedonfeedbackfromproducersinourproprietarysurvey,theorderbooksofend-usersandbasicmaterialsimprovedMoM.75%and53%ofrespondentssawMoMimprovementinAugustfordownstreamsectorsandbasicmaterialorderbooks,respectively.AutoAutoWhitegoodsPropertyMachineryPowerSteelBldgMatlsCoalPaperMetalsCoalPaperGoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.__ChinaBasicMaterials–coveragesummary3Commoditypricedeck4ChinaBasicMaterialsMonitor(August2022):oneofthebetterAugusts5Chinadownstreamdemandsnapshots9Steel:marginalrecovery12Steel-makingrawmaterials:easingsupplyoutlook14Coal:seasonalpeak17Cement:?oored,withmildimprovement20Aluminum/Alumina:furtherdeteriorationindemand23Copper:improvingorderbook25Lithium:strongdemand,higherinventory28Paperpackaging:risingcapacitysuspension,demandremainsweak32Targetpricemethodologiesandrisks35DisclosureAppendix38August2__CompanyTickerPriceasof12-Aug-2022Angang-HAngang-ABaosteel0347.HK000898.SZ600019.SSMaanshan-H0323.HKMaanshan-A600808.SSShenhua-HShenhua-AChinacoal-HChinacoal-AYankuang-HYankuang-AConch-HConch-ABBMG-HBBMGANBMCWCCChalco-HChalco-AngqiaoJXC-HJXC-ACMOC-HCMOC-AZijin-HZijin-AZhaojinGanfeng-HGanfeng-AHuayouGEMLeeManNDPaperChenming-HChenming-AShanyingSunpaper601088.SS601898.SS600188.SS0914.HK600585.SS2009.HK601992.SS3323.HKK2233.HK2600.HK601600.SS0358.HK600362.SSK3993.HK603993.SS2899.HK601899.SSK002460.SZ603799.SS002340.SZ2314.HK2689.HK000488.SZ600567.SS002078.SZTccy2.69003822.7528.94522742.360.952.882.6254.75912.924.66302.4294465019633.801.7082.20.952.71332.71TargetTccy4.80902.30201.002.00107040.009.0020804.6025.3027.8000070.2084.6050002.30402.800dingyYYYYYgralNeutral ll ll NeutraleutralNeutral ll lNeutralNeutraleutral l ll ll ll tral Neutral eutralutral l lleutrallUpsideMktcap%US$bn78%3.234.1947%17.798%2.093%3.5436%57.6611%85.38%11.0318.2517.50-56%30.6529%20.9319%25.871.48%4.15119%8.34-33%4.2387%0.6330%6.349%9.10148%4.5160%8.9224%2.6710.8617.5168%31.9196%35.93%3.1818.9536%27.4019.3853%6.5215%4.16%1.03%1.031.85-36%4.61EPS(rptccy/sh)21A22E23E21A0.7360.5810.7755.00.7360.5810.7755.71.0700.8971.0037.30.6920.3640.5003.90.6920.3640.5005.72.5973.7783.6105.22.5973.7783.6107.61.3103.21.1101.4021.3106.13.4766.0033.3082.63.4766.0033.3085.26.2844.3554.0085.86.2844.3554.0087.2.1034.41.9231.7431.8474.41.1120.2670.3327.00.2910.3040.4513.70.2980.2760.30712.00.2980.2760.30718.31.7721.8481.8384.71.6672.2012.2627.81.6672.2012.26214.60.0790.0650.0916.20.2360.3740.43718.40.2360.3740.43726.10.6070.8400.96314.60.6070.8400.96317.60.0100.2390.330n.a.2.6668.3314.10928.32.6668.3314.10937.72.5383.4154.23831.50.3650.54553.10.7190.4650.4199.10.9830.8290.8636.10.6920.1840.1296.30.6920.1840.12912.50.3280.2780.25310.51.1130.8350.71512.52E4.06.05.06.64.09.728.99.8cons3E3.09.522.37.641.22E6.025.08.722.728.56.0A5.87.6421A27%27%21%47%25%25%2%2%27%22E23E21A9%11%0.49%11%0.610%11%0.89%11%0.59%11%0.919%17%0.819%17%1.215%13%0.415%13%0.737%18%0.937%18%1.712%11%0.912%11%1.23%2%0.23%2%0.514%13%0.63%4%0.714%18%0.58%8%1.08%8%1.820%18%0.810%10%0.51.125%27%1.419%19%1.819%19%3.028%26%2.828%26%3.61.156%20%6.656%20%9.425%24%6.712%15%3.56%6%0.88%8%0.53%2%0.51.18%7%0.911%9%1.6EV/EBITDADivyieldPerf.ADTV22E21A22E23E21A22E21A22E23EYTDS$mn1.223%20%6.0%7.5%10.1%-22%2.51.720%15%5.2%5.8%7.8%-20%3.73.319%9%7.6%9.2%10.3%-25%4.43.736%-14%13.0%10.1%13.8%-26%4.04.726%-9%8.8%5.9%8.1%-16%27.71.021%19%18.7%15.5%14.8%24%3.73.615%13%12.9%10.4%10.0%29%2.52.351%22%8.4%6.3%5.8%45%13.11.033%16%4.5%3.8%3.5%47%3.77.819%20%22.0%14.3%7.9%82%11.112%13%11.1%8.2%4.5%80%2.42.89%2%6.5%6.4%5.9%-21%3.43.97%2%5.3%5.2%4.8%-18%13.215.819%-39%8.6%7.4%4.1%-10%0.70.411.414.717.614%-27%3.7%2.7%1.5%-8%5.95.712%1%8.2%9.4%10.0%-19%9.18.4-13%-12%6.7%2.6%3.3%-19%3.12.2-36%-7%11.3%11.1%11.6%-35%6.66.131%11%1.1%0.0%0.0%-32%8.58.022%7%0.7%0.0%0.0%-23%2.42.126%19%9.8%11.9%11.9%1%3.63.211%7%3.9%7.5%7.7%-18%5.75.36%4%2.1%3.8%3.9%-22%3.93.133%13%0.0%0.0%0.0%-3%6.05.22%-4%1.6%3.3%3.9%-4%19.92.51%-3%1.1%2.1%2.4%-2%211.06.32%5%2.3%3.5%4.0%2%33.92.811.08.26.92%4%1.9%3.1%3.5%-5%349.91.321.513.210.34%4%0.0%0.6%0.8%15%7.43.334.47.812.5-2%2%0.3%1.1%0.5%-16%51.34.845.511.218.2-1%2%0.2%0.7%0.4%-10%588.95.323.215.712.8-5%-5%0.3%0.4%0.5%-3%357.52.822.413.49.5-5%-9%0.3%0.6%0.9%-11%7.17.2-1%3%4.0%5.3%4.7%-41%8.08.0-8%-33%4.7%3.9%3.9%-17%7.98.548%34%0.0%0.0%0.0%-27%9.710.527%18%0.0%0.0%0.0%-26%9.69.8-6%-10%1.5%1.3%1.1%4%29.4PricesinthisreportareasofAugust12,2022,unlessstatedotherwise.“Target”inExhibits3,35,42,49,62,73and80refersto12-monthtargetprices.August3__tBASEMETALS2010A2011A2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025ESpotYTDAl-LMEUS$/lb0.991.090.920.860.860.760.730.890.960.810.771.321.552.042.271.34yoy%31%10%0%-4%23%7%-5%45%18%18%31%11%-2%28%Cu-LMEUS$/lb3.424.023.633.332.512.202.902.962.722.794.213.843.996.356.803.704.24yoy%46%18%-8%-6%32%2%-8%2%51%-9%4%59%7%2%Nickel-LMEUS$/lb8.5410.317.976.877.685.404.354.585.956.316.258.3712.3612.9812.4712.4710.7012.00yoy%28%21%-23%12%-30%5%30%6%34%48%5%-4%n.a.22%49%AluminaUS$/t327389323330331302252299472334270328357363370370333385yoy%47%19%2%0%-9%19%58%-29%21%9%2%2%0%11%33%GoldUS$/oz1,2241,5721,6721,4171,2661,2471,2611,2691,3931,7711,7991,8461,9501,9501,9501,7901,852yoy%26%28%6%-8%7%10%27%2%3%6%0%0%2%3%BULKandENERGYCOMMODITIESOil-BrentUS$/bbl801099952445272644371125908098104yoy%29%39%-3%-9%-48%17%38%-33%64%57%12%-28%38%56%IOfines-ChinaCIFUS$/dmt1481701301369656587169921081591008075108133yoy%83%15%-23%4%-29%-42%4%22%-2%33%17%47%-27%-20%-6%-35%-3%HCC(Spot-FOBAustralia)US$/t19128919114888142189208177125224418240180170196421yoy%11%51%-34%-22%-23%-23%62%33%10%-30%79%87%-43%-25%-25%216%Thermalcoal-NEWC6000US$/t99122998671596687107786113829820012090393282yoy%37%23%11%32%24%-28%-22%128%116%-33%-40%-40%142%170%CHINAPRICESSteel-HRCRmb/t4,3184,7203,7793,3592,3122,8203,8593,8563,8985,4204,3834,0223,7013,5594,0904,791yoy%15%9%-8%-31%22%37%8%-8%39%-8%-8%-4%-29%Steel-CRCRmb/t5,6185,4644,8934,6254,0612,9193,4144,3904,6084,2624,4616,0184,8624,5874,3794,3504,4605,301yoy%18%-3%-5%-28%17%29%5%-8%5%35%-6%-5%-30%Steel-rebarRmb/t4,7043,9613,5563,0512,4083,8043,8853,7185,0424,3753,7783,4563,3154,2204,685yoy%14%14%-30%13%58%8%-6%-4%36%-9%-4%-20%-5%Al-SHFEUS$/lb0.861.010.970.920.860.760.720.830.850.800.88yoy%10%18%-4%-5%-5%16%2%-6%3%42%2%-5%3%4%-9%15%Cu-SHFEUS$/lb3.393.983.533.363.092.532.242.813.002.752.834.223.864.016.366.823.764.24yoy%43%17%-5%-8%26%7%-8%3%49%-9%4%59%7%2%ChinaAluminaRmb/t2,7952,8502,6292,5212,4682,2992,0412,9032,9922,7112,3472,8282,6132,6932,6162,9652,9052,974yoy%17%2%-8%-4%-2%42%3%-9%20%-8%3%-3%13%9%25%Licarbonate-CNspotUS$/t5,066525,4195,5285,3097,21617,8408,7945,66216,64653,98216,37262,47061,007yoy%-3%2%5%2%-4%36%151%-2%-42%-36%194%224%-33%0%374%434%Lihydroxide-coarse,CNspotUS$/t5,0215,3005,5895,9265,8326,74319,35018,89317,87910,5546,65915,63953,76117,69912,50012,50061,35458,754yoy%6%5%6%-2%16%187%-2%-5%-41%-37%135%244%-67%-29%0%303%443%Lihydroxide-fine,CIFAsiaUS$/t6,7966,9907,6388,0907,6358,03114,55419,06319,52114,03510,43114,66740,80017,69912,50012,50055,00046,286yoy%-8%3%9%6%-6%5%81%31%2%-28%-26%41%178%-57%-29%0%307%296%Spodumeneprice6%-CNCIFUS$/tn.a.n.a.3104003904205007709016354319092,8008008005,0303,771yoy%n.a.n.a.n.a.29%-3%8%19%54%17%-30%-32%111%208%-61%-27%0%482%532%Thermal(QHD5500-blended)Rmb/t747819702589517423473612590573557825747709600551786786yoy%25%10%12%29%-4%-3%-3%48%-5%-8%15%Thermal(QHD5500-spot)Rmb/t747819702589517423473640654593582867986800600551yoy%25%10%12%35%2%-9%-2%49%14%-25%-8%26%54%August4_GoldmanSachsChinaBasicMaterialsMonitor_OurmonthlyChinaBasicMaterialsMonitorincorporatesourproprietarysurveyofover50industrycontactstotrack:1)forwardorderbooktrends;and2)inventorylevelsatproducersandend-users.Thesurveyincludesaggregatedcommentsfromproducersandmanufacturersindownstreamsectorssuchasauto,appliances,machineryandpropertydevelopersaswellassteelmills,cementproducers,metalfabricators,containerboardproducersandboxmakers,andindustryassociations.OnthegrounddemandareseeingmildimprovementsequentiallyinAugust,makingorderbooktrendingasoneofthosebetteryearsversushistoricalseasonalpattern.Feedbackfromend-userforwardorderbookasofmid-August2022suggeststhat75%ofrespondentsexpectaMoMimprovementinAugust,versus22%inJuly2022AfteraveryweakJuneandJuly,onthegrounddemandisseeingamildimprovementsequentiallyinAugust,makingtheorderbooktrendoneofthebetteronesversusthehistoricalseasonalpattern.Combinedwithmoresupplycuts,thenegativemarginsforbasicmaterialsarebeingrepairedtobreakevenlevels.Speci?cally,demandpickupshavebeenseeninsteel,cement,andcopper,whilealuminumfurthersoftened.Forenddemand,thetrendsinairconditioner,autoandstategridarepositive,whilepropertycompletionhasstartedtodeteriorate(basedonfeedbackofmetalfabricatorsandglasssuppliers).Furthermore,intheeyesofmostproducers,theoutlookfortheupcomingpeakseasonwillremaingloomy.Weestimatecurrentdemandisrunningat5-20%belowthenormallevelsforsteel,0-15%belowforcement,5-40%belowforaluminum,and5%belowforcopper.Channelchecks–forwardorderbooktrendsFeedbackfromproducersasofmid-August2022suggeststhatend-userorderbookpickedupMoM,atrendthatisbetterthanpastseasonality,althoughtheabsolutelevelofdemandremainedweak.nRealizedsalestrendsinJuly2022weremostlyinlineversusproducers’expectations.nTheMoMend-userforwardorderbooktrendpickedup,with75%ofrespondentsexpectingaMoMimprovementinAugustversus22%inJuly2022,and13%ofrespondentsexpectingaMoMdeclineinAugust,versus56%inJuly2022.nTheorderbooktrendforbasicmaterialspickedup,with53%ofrespondentsexpectingaMoMimprovementinorderbooksinAugust(versus35%inJuly),and22%expectingadeclineinAugust(versus42%inJuly).Speci?cally,thepercentageofrespondentsexpectingorderbookimprovementwas25%forcoal(versus50%inJuly),63%forsteel(versus63%inJuly),57%forbuildingmaterials(versus50%inJuly),38%forbasemetalfabricatorsandtraders(versus33%inJuly),and67%forcontainerboardpaper(versus25%inJuly).nAcrossallrespondents,6%areseeingMoMtrendsthatarestrongerthannormalseasonalpatterns,42%seenormalseasonalpatterns,and52%areseeingMoMtrendsthatareweakerthannormalseasonality(insteel,metals,constructionmaterials,propertyandpaper).August5__Ourinventorysurveyasofmid-Augustsuggestsinventoryatproducersisabovenormallevelsforcoal/paper/buildingmaterials/?nishedproducts,isatnormallevelsforalumina/Al/OCC,andbelownormalforironore/hardcokingcoal/steel/Cu.Ourinventorychecksincludebothrawmaterialsandend-productinventoryheldatproducersthroughthevaluechain(excludingexchangeandsocialinventory).Feedbackiscenteredontherelativepositionofthecurrentinventoryversusnormallevels(seasonallyadjusted),andthedirectionofinventorychangesatthetimeofthesurvey.Ourinventorysurveyasofmid-Augustsuggestsinventoryatproducersisabovenormallevelsforcoal/paper/buildingmaterials/?nishedproducts,isatnormallevelsforalumina/Al/OCC,andbelownormalforironore/hardcokingcoal/steel/Cu.nInventoryfor?nishedsteelisbelownormallevels(net37%ofrespondentsareseeingbelow-normalinventory)andmovingdown;ironoreandcokingcoalarebelownormallevels(net17%ofrespondentsareseeingbelow-normalinventory)andstable.nInventoryforaluminumisatnormallevelsandmovingup.Inventoryforaluminaisatnormallevelsandstable.nInventoryforcopperisbelownormallevels(net38%ofrespondentsareseeingbelow-normalinventory)andstable.nInventoryforbuildingmaterialsisabovenormallevels(net50%ofrespondentsareseeingabove-normalinventory)andmovingdown.nInventoryforcontainerboardisabovenormallevels(net25%ofrespondentsareseeingabove-normalinventory)andmovingup.Inventoryforoldcorrugatedcontainers(OCC)isatnormallevelsandstable.nInventoryforcoalisabovenormallevels(net33%ofrespondentsareseeingabove-normalinventory)andstable.nInventoryforoveralldownstreamproductsisabovenormallevels(net4%ofrespondentsareseeingbelow-normalinventory)andmovingdown.August9__86%75%67%56%50%55%56%50%44%38%31%44%38%31%22%222%15%0%0%0%00%0%0%13%15%30%15%30%38%45%47%38%45%47%44%56%5356%89%JulAugSepOctNovDec2020A2021A2022A-decliningMoMJulAugSepOctNovDec2020A2021A2022A-decliningMoMJanFebMarAprMayJun2020A2021A2022A-improvingMoM2020A2021A2022A-improvingMoM2020A2021A2022A-decliningMoM71%63%60%57%63%71%63%60%57%50%38%29%25%29%20%25%25%29%25%29%20%14%20%25%20%25%25%29%25%29%43%38%25%29%25%29%43%50%50%57%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2020JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2020A2021A2022A-improvingMoM2020A2021A2022A-decliningMoM2020A2021A2022A-improvingMoM2020A2021A2022A-decliningMoMAugust7_OHCCoalSteelAluminaAl_OHCCoalSteelAluminaAlCCPaperBldgMatlsFinprodBldgMatlsMetalsfabCoalPapercoal75%57%50%5057%50%50%38%43%38%33%25%25%25%0%0%0%0%%0%0%%0%%%%%%%%25%25%25%50%50%50%50%75%Jan75%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2020A2021A2022A-improvingMoM2020A2021A2022A-decliningMoM88%AprAugJulJanFebMar20AprAugJulJanFebMar2020A2020AMayJun2021A2021A2022A-improvingMoM2022A-decliningMoMInventorylevelversusnormal,anddirectionofchangesatthetimeofsurvey(netof%ofrespondents)-August202250%%-50%Aug-22Jul-22AbovenormalNormalinventoryBelownormalNetorderbooktrendin%ofrespondents-August(%)50%%-50%AutoWhitegoodsPropertyAutoWhitegoodsPropertyAugust-2020(net)MachineryPowerSteelMachineryPowerSteelAugust-2021(net)August-2022(net)August8_Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23_Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-19ctJan-20Apr-20Jul-20ctJan-21Apr-21Jul-21ctJan-22Apr-22Jul-22ctJan-23Apr-19tJan-20Apr-20Jul-20tJan-21Apr-21Jul-21tJan-22Apr-22Jul-22tJan-23Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23YoY(%)0%BalanceofinvestmentinPPPpool(Rmbtn)FAIYoY(%)0%BalanceofinvestmentinPPPpool(Rmbtn)2.525.020%2.020%2.05.5.0-20%0.0-20%0.0MonthspendingGrowthyoyInassessmentInpreparationMonthspendingGrowthyoyMonthlyfreighttransported(bntonne-km)2,5002,000000FreighttransportedGrowthyoyYoY(%)40%0%20%YoY(%)0%20%-10%-20%MonthlyYoY(%)0%20%-10%-20%000000040000ConsumptiongrowthGenerationGenerationConsumptiongrowthAugust9_Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan_Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Monthlyresidentialfloorspacesold(mnsqmeters)YoYMonthlyresidentialfloorspacesold(mnsqmeters)YoY(%)60%YoY(%)20%-20%-30%-40%002500025020025020025020020%-20%-40%00-60%00FloorspacestartedResidentialYoYGrowthyoymnFloorspacestartedResidentialYoYGrowthyoymnsqmeterssolddMonthlyoutput-whitegoods(mnunit)YoY(%)Monthlyoutput-whitegoods(mnunit)YoY(%)YoY(%)80.0%30.025.030.025.020.05.050.020%40.020%40.040.0%30.030.020.0%-20%0.0%-20.0.00.00.00.0GrowthyoyOutputGrowthyoyGrowthyoyOutputGrowthyoyAugust10Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Jan-22Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23_Monthlyoutputandsales-automobiles(mnunit)5.04.03.02.00.0OutputGrowthyoy-outputGrowthyoy-salesYoY(%)40%20%-20%-40%-60%YoY(%)60%40%20%-20%-40%GrowthyoyMonthlyoutput-machinetools(thunit)Oct-21put4000August11__OutputandtradeChina’s6M22crudesteeloutputwas527mnt,down6.5%yoy.Dailyoutputwasat2.67mntattheendofJuly,12.0%loweryoyanddown5.9%sequentially.Netexportsof?nishedsteelwere33.6mntin7M22,down3.2%yoy.Apparentdemandimpliedfor6M22was499mnt(excludingsemis),down6.4%yoy(anddown5.3%forJune22).PricesandinventoryAsofAugust12,2022,thespotpriceofrebarwasRmb4,220/t(withVAT,up12%MoM),HRCwasRmb4,090/t(up11%MoM)andCRCwasRmb4,460/t(up6%MoM).BaosteelcontinuedtocutitsHRCex-factorypriceRmb100/tforSeptember2022.Socialandmillsinventoryofmajorsteelproductswas17.0mnt,with0.47mntdestockedinthepastweek.MarginBasedonspotpricesasofAugust12,2022,weestimatetherebarisataunitlossRmb96/t,versusloss