創(chuàng)造財(cái)富企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略與決策【外文翻譯】

(最新)創(chuàng)造財(cái)富-企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略與決策【外文翻譯】本科畢業(yè)論文(設(shè)計(jì))外文翻譯原文:CreatingWealthCorporateFinancialStrategyandDecisionMakingCorporateFinancialStrategicPlanningHerbertSimonhaswrittenthatthereisaGresham’slawofplanning:“Programmedactivitytendstodriveoutnonprogrammedactivity.”Thedecisiontobuyanewenergy-savingpieceofequipmentisaloteasiertodiscussandanalyzethanstrategicinvestmentdecisions.Inthecaseoftheenergy-savingequipment,cashflowscanbeestimatedandthedecisiontobuyornottobuycanbemadebasedonwell-knowncapitalbudgetingtechniques.Thebasiccapitalbudgetingtechniquesare“programmedactivities”inSimon’slaw.Strategyissuesarealotsofterandalotlesssatisfactorytowriteaboutandtoread.However,itmaywellbethatstrategyissuesaremuchmoreimportant,eveniftheyarenotfuntoconsider.Strategyleadsafirmtoentertheenergybusiness.Thatisthefirstandmostimportantdecision.Thefirmmightthenhavetovalueaprospectiveacquisitionasameansofacceleratingtheentryintotheindustry,butwithoutthestrategydecisionitwouldnotbenecessarytovaluetheacquisition.Allbusinessdecisionmakingisbasedonabstractionsfromreality.Wehavetosimplifyinordertomakedecisions.Wecandelaydecisionmakingbyinsisting-onmoreinformation,butwhenthemoreinformationisobtained,therewillstillbemoreinformationthatcouldbeobtainedifyouwerewillingtodeferaction.Soonerorlateronehastoresisttheopportunitytogetmoreinformation,andonehastomakethedecision.HerbertSimonhassaidthisbest:Administrativetheoryispeculiarlythetheoryofintendedandboundedrationality–ofthebehaviorofhumanbeingswhosatisficebecausetheyhavenotthewitstomaximize.Andasadditionalexplanation:Whereaseconomicmanmaximizes–selectsthebestalternativefromamongallthoseavailabletohim,hiscousin,administrativeman,satisfices–looksforacourseofactionthatissatisfactoryor“goodenough.”Examplesofsatisficingcriteria,familiarenoughtobusinessmenifunfamiliartomosteconomists,are“shareofmarket,”“adequateprofit,”“fairprice.”Thesubstitutionoftheword“satisfice”for“maximize”isnotnecessaryifwearewillingtoconsiderthecostsofinformation,search,anddelayinthedecisiontomaximize.InasensewecanconcludethatSimonissuggestingthatitisbettertomakedecisions,evenimperfectdecisions,thantoendurethelongwaituntiltheperfectinformationandperfectdecisionprocessesareavailable.“Inanimportantsense,alldecisionisamatterofcompromise.”WhileSimon’s“satisfice”descriptionisanextremelyusefuldevicefordescribinghowmanagersoperate,weshallfinditconvenienttocollapseSimon’s“satisfice”andprofitmaximizationintooneexpression.Infect,theprofitmaximization(whereprofitisdefinedintermsofrisk-adjustedpresentvalue)isdeemedtobetheprimaryobjectiveofthefirm.Moreisbetter.Further,theprofitmaximizationobjectiveincludestheinformationcostandcostofsearchsothatitisconsistentwithSimon’ssatisfice(wearenotrejectingthesatisficeconcept).Theassumptionisthatdecisionsshouldbemadefromthepointofviewofimprovingthewell-beingofthestockholders.Thisisareasonablepointofdeparture,butitcannotbetheentiremessage.Managers,employees,customers,andsocietyingeneralhaveinterestsintheresultsofafirm’soperations.Wemustalsoconsidertheimpactofdecisionsonthewell-beingofthesegroups.Onemightobjecttothisconclusion,butrealisticallysuchconsiderationsarebeingincludedbysuccessfulfirms.Nomanagersubmitsaninvestmentorotherdecisionproposalwithoutcarefullyconsideringtheimpactofthedecisionbeingreviewedonhisorherwell-being.Eventheboardofdirectorswillconsiderthewell-beingofmanagersiffornootherreasonthanthatmanagersarelikelytobeontheboard.Employeesalsomustbeconsidered,sinceanobviousandcontinuousdisregardoftheirinterestswillcausethemtoinsistontherighttoprotecttheirinterests.Customersalsogaintheirrighttobeconsideredbytheeconomicpowertheywield,notintheboardroomdirectly,butindirectlyviatherightofaconsumertoavoidbuyingacorporation’sproduct.Therightsofsocietycantosomeextentbeignoredbyacorporationforashortperiodoftime,butcontinuousimplementationofa“publicbedamned”philosophyislikelytobringforthastringofgovernmentlegislation.Theinterestsofsocietymustberespectedifonlytoavoidsuchlegislation.Acorporationshoulddo“right”eitherbecauseitistheproperthingtodoorbecauseitisinitsownbestintereststobehaveinsuchafashion.KeyElementsofStrategicPlanningThefivekeyelementsofthestrategicplanningarelistedbelow:Thefirstelementindevelopingastrategyistheidentificationoftheproblemsandopportunitiesthatexist.Asuccessfulfirmwillhaveafertileidea-generatingenvironment.Whatproblemsandopportunitiesarethere?Problemandopportunityidentificationisoneofthemoreimportantoutputsresultingfromgoodstrategicplanning.Noproblemcanbesolvedoranopportunitycanbeseizedunlessitexists.Thesecondelementistosetgoals(objectives).Goalsettingisnotindependentoftheidentificationofopportunities.Ifthegoalistoachievegrowthinsalesof15%peryear,itwillbenecessarytospendmoreresourcesgeneratingideasthanifthegoalistoavoidgrowth.Itmaybearguedthattopmanagementshouldstopwiththesettingofthegoalsandleaveeverythingelsetotheoperatingmanagers.Forexample,topmanagementmightsetthegoalstoearnatleast25%returnoninvestment(ROI),tomaintaina15%growthrateperyear,andtocorner20%ofthetotalmarketasthefirm’sprofitgoals.Operatingmanagementwouldthenestablishthedetailsastohowthegoalswouldbeachieved.Apopularformofmanagerialstyleisto“managebyobjectives.”Ifonemanagesbyobjectives,thegoalissetbythetop,butthespecificmethodofgettingtothegoalisnotcontrolled.Theresultsareimportant,notthemethodofgettingtotheresults.Performancemeasurementissubstitutedfordetailedsupervision.Thusgoalsettingbecomesacruciallyimportantelementinthestrategicplanning.Wenowhaveproblemsandgoalsdefined.Thethirdelementistohaveaprocedureforproviding,possiblesolutions,or“paths”thefirmcanfollowtofindasolution.Forexample,thecurrentenergysituationcanbedefinedasaproblemoranopportunity.Thegoalmightbetoachieveenergyindependenceortomakeagivenreturnoninvestment.Assumeafirmhasdecidedtoentertheenergyindustryandhastodecidewhatkindofenergyitwilldevelopandhowitwillgoaboutit.Forexample,itmightconsidersolar,wind,tide,andfossilandthendecidetogowithsolar.Havingdecidedtoenterthesolarenergyindustry,thecorporationmightdecidetospendlargesumsonresearchoralternativelymightdecidetoacquireafirmthatalreadyhasvaluableknow-howandthusaccelerateitsentryintotheindustry.Thesettingoftacticsfollowsthesettingofthebasicstrategyforenteringtheindustry.Thebasicdecisionisto“enterthesolarenergyindustry.”Thegoalsthataresetcanbetoearn25%ROI,increaseearnings15%peryear,andgain20%ofthetotalmarket.Topmanagementofthecorporationmightthenleavethedetailsofhowthisistobeachievedtothemanagersoperatingthesolarenergydivision.Thisisanextremeformofdecentralizationand“bottomlinemanagement.”Themorenormalprocedureisfortopmanagementtooverseethemoreimportantdecisionsthataremade,especiallythoseinvolvinglargeinvestmentoutlaysorotherlargecommitments.Thefourthelementofstrategicplanningistochoosethebestsolution,givenpossiblesolutionsandthefirm’sobjectives.Onwhatbasiswillthebestsolutionbechosen?Thegoalmighthavebeenestablishedtomaximizethewellbeingofthestockholders.Thisiseasytostate,butgivenalargenumberofwaystoentertheenergyindustry,whichmethodshouldbechosen?Itmightbedecidedtochoosethepathwiththelargestnetpresentvalue.Butthenriskconsiderationsshouldenteranalysis.Choosingthebestsolution,evenwithwell-definedgoalsestablished,isadifficultjob.Thefifthandfinalelementofstrategicplanningistohavesometypeofreviewprocedurestocheckhowthebestsolutionhasactuallyperformed.Howthisreviewfunctionisexecutedwilldependonthepreferencesandstyleofmanagement.Theabovefiveelementsofstrategicplanningdonotrevealanythingaboutthestyleinwhichthey(andtheresultingplans)willbeimplemented.Theyarebroadenoughtoencompassawiderangeoffinancialdecisions.Forexample,ifthegoalistohavereasonablegrowthbutlittlerisk,theamountofriskthatisacceptabletotheownersofthecorporation(orintheirabsence,totheboardofdirectors)willgreatlyaffecttheamountofdebtthatisusedtofinancethecorporation.Amajorplanningquestionnotyetansweredistowhatextenttheinterestsoftheorganizationcomeaheadoftheinterestsofthedifferentgroupsofemployees.Whatsortofperformancemeasureswillbeused,andwhathappenswhengoalsarenotmet?Willexcuses(explanations)belistenedto,orwilltherebeaninsistenceonperformance?Managerialstylewillcirclebackandaffectthingslikeideageneration.ApproachtoStrategyWewillconsiderfourapproachestostrategy.Thefirstusesbrillianceandisunstructured,whilethesecondusesdramaticsimplificationsandbroadgeneralizations.Thethirdreliesheavilyonstatisticaldata,andthefourthisatheoreticalapproachthatiscorrect,butmaynotalwaysbepractical.Approach1:BrillianceUnderthisapproacheachsituationisuniqueandtheproblemsolverappliesbrillianceinarrivingatastrategy.Thereisanunstructuredanalysis.Asystematicapproachtothinkingaboutstrategycanbelearned(onecanpracticestrategydecisionsviacasesandgames),buttherearefewifanygeneralizations.Alistingofthefiveelementsofstrategicplanningdescribedaboveisanillustrationofanattempttosystematizethinkingaboutstrategy.Onecanreadastrategyrecommendationforafirmandadmireitswisdom,butstillnotbeabletotellacomputerhowtodothenextanalysis.Approach2:BroadGeneralizationsTheBostonConsultingGroup(BCG)hasdevelopedanamazinglysimpletounderstandandattractiveapproachtostrategy.Inaccordancewiththemodel,thebestofallworldsisforaproducttohaveahighmarketshareinahigh-growthmarket(beastar).Thustheimplication(recommendation?)isthatafirmshouldmaintaindominantmarketpositioninagrowingmarket(themarketsegmentmaybeverylimited)orthefirmshouldabandontheactivity.Tosomeextentthisrecommendationisbasedontheory.Tobeinamonopolisticpositionisadesirablestatefromthepointofviewofprofitmaximization.Secondly,ifafirmisproducingmorethanthecompetitors,itisapttobefurtheralongitslearningcurve,andthusitscostislikelytobelessthanthoseofcompetitor.Here,itisassumedthattheincrementalcostsreducewiththenumberofunitsproduced,andthereisevidencetosubstantiatethisassumption.Ifthefirmhasahighmarketsharebutslowgrowthinthemarket,ithasacashcow.Donotinvestinthismarket,butdrainoffthecash.Andifboththemarketshareandmarketgrowtharelow,ithasadog,andtheadviceistofindsomefoolwhowilltakeifoff.Finally,ifthemarketgrowthishighbutthemarketshareislow,thenthereisaquestionmark.Strategywilldependontheexpectationofbeingabletomovefromalowmarketsharetoahighmarketshare.Thefirmshouldeitherspendtoachievestardomorgetoutofthemarket.Source:VKBhalla,2004“CreatingWealth—CorporateFinancialStrategyandDecisionMaking”.JournalofManagementResearch,vol.4,no.1,april,pp.13-17.譯文:創(chuàng)造財(cái)富:企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略與決策企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃赫伯特西蒙曾撰文指出有一個(gè)格雷欣法則規(guī)劃:”列入方案的活動(dòng)往往趕不上未列入方案的活動(dòng)”。決定購(gòu)買(mǎi)新的節(jié)能設(shè)備比討論和分析戰(zhàn)略性投資決策容易得多。在節(jié)能設(shè)備的方案中，現(xiàn)金流量是可以預(yù)算的，購(gòu)買(mǎi)或者不購(gòu)買(mǎi)是可以根據(jù)著名的資本預(yù)算技術(shù)來(lái)決定的。資本預(yù)算的基本技術(shù)在西蒙法則中就是“程序活動(dòng)”。戰(zhàn)略問(wèn)題是一個(gè)柔和，擔(dān)不是一個(gè)令人滿(mǎn)意的寫(xiě)和讀。但是，它很可能比這一戰(zhàn)略問(wèn)題更重要，即使他們考慮起來(lái)并不好玩。戰(zhàn)略領(lǐng)導(dǎo)一個(gè)公司進(jìn)入能源業(yè)務(wù)。這是第一個(gè)也是最重要的決定。該公司接下來(lái)可能有必要去做一個(gè)潛在的收購(gòu)評(píng)估來(lái)加快進(jìn)入該行業(yè)，但如果沒(méi)有戰(zhàn)略決策，將沒(méi)有必要去做收購(gòu)評(píng)估。所有的商業(yè)決策都是基于現(xiàn)實(shí)的抽象。我們必須簡(jiǎn)化，以便于做出決定。我們可以通過(guò)堅(jiān)持要求更多的信息來(lái)延遲決策，但是當(dāng)獲得更多的信息，還會(huì)有更多的信息可以得到，如果你愿意推遲行動(dòng)。人們遲早有必要去抵制得到更多的信息的機(jī)會(huì)，因?yàn)樗麄儽仨氉龀鰶Q定。西蒙說(shuō)這個(gè)最好:行政管理理論是特有的預(yù)期的和有限理性理論——對(duì)于滿(mǎn)足人類(lèi)，因?yàn)樗麄儧](méi)有智慧去最大限度地發(fā)揮人類(lèi)的行為。而作為補(bǔ)充說(shuō)明:鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)人最大化——從所有這些選擇提供給他，他的表弟，行政人員，以滿(mǎn)足最佳替代查找的行動(dòng)當(dāng)然這是令人滿(mǎn)意的，或者說(shuō)“足夠好”。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的令人滿(mǎn)意的例子，對(duì)于商人足夠熟悉，但是對(duì)于大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卻很不熟悉是“市場(chǎng)占有率”，“足夠的利潤(rùn)”，“公平的價(jià)格?！比绻覀?cè)敢庾畲笙薅鹊娜タ紤]在信息，搜索成本和延誤方面的決定的話(huà)，用“滿(mǎn)意”這個(gè)詞去替代“最大化”是沒(méi)有必要。在某種意義上，我們可以得出結(jié)論，西蒙表明做出決定，即使這不是完美的決定，也要比忍受等待直到完善的信息和完善的決策過(guò)程實(shí)現(xiàn)可以利用要來(lái)得好?！霸谝粋€(gè)重要的意義上，所有的決定是一個(gè)妥協(xié)的問(wèn)題?！彪m然西蒙的“滿(mǎn)意”描述是描述如何管理運(yùn)作非常有用的工具，我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)它是一種很方便去瓦解西蒙的“滿(mǎn)意”和利潤(rùn)最大化的表述。事實(shí)上，利潤(rùn)最大化(其中利潤(rùn)是指在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)整后的現(xiàn)值計(jì)算)被視為是該公司的首要目標(biāo)。越多越好。此外，利潤(rùn)最大化的目標(biāo)，包括信息成本和搜尋成本，使之符合西蒙的滿(mǎn)意(我們不應(yīng)拒絕令人滿(mǎn)意的概念)。假設(shè)決策應(yīng)該從股東所認(rèn)為的改善福利的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)決定。這是一個(gè)合理的出發(fā)點(diǎn)，但它不能成為整個(gè)訊息。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，經(jīng)理，員工，客戶(hù)和整個(gè)社會(huì)在一個(gè)公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)上都是有利益的。我們還必須把影響這些群體的福利的決策考慮在內(nèi)。有人可能會(huì)反對(duì)這一結(jié)論，但實(shí)際上很多成功的公司都把這個(gè)考慮在內(nèi)。在沒(méi)有仔細(xì)考慮該投資或者這個(gè)決策建議對(duì)他或她的福利的審查的影響之前，沒(méi)有經(jīng)理會(huì)去提交。即使是董事會(huì)將考慮如果沒(méi)有其他原因只是管理者很可能是資深董事的良好管理人員的福利。員工也必須被考慮，因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)明顯的，持續(xù)的無(wú)視他們的利益將促使他們堅(jiān)持他們的權(quán)利去保護(hù)自己的利益?？蛻?hù)也獲得他們的權(quán)利去考慮行使他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，而不是直接通過(guò)董事會(huì)會(huì)議室，但間接地通過(guò)了消費(fèi)者的權(quán)利，以避免購(gòu)買(mǎi)公司的產(chǎn)品。社會(huì)的權(quán)利，可以在一定程度上被公司在很短的時(shí)間內(nèi)忽略，但是一個(gè)持續(xù)實(shí)施“公眾見(jiàn)鬼去吧”的經(jīng)營(yíng)理念可能帶來(lái)一系列的政府立法。社會(huì)的利益必須得到尊重，如果只是為了避免這種立法。一個(gè)公司應(yīng)該做的“權(quán)利”可能是因?yàn)樗钦_的事情，或者是因?yàn)樗谧约旱淖罴牙?，?lái)表現(xiàn)這樣一種時(shí)尚。戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的關(guān)鍵要素五個(gè)戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的關(guān)鍵要素如下:在制訂戰(zhàn)略的第一要素是鑒定存在的問(wèn)題與機(jī)會(huì)。一個(gè)成功的公司將擁有一個(gè)豐富的理念創(chuàng)新環(huán)境。存在的問(wèn)題和機(jī)會(huì)有哪些,問(wèn)題與機(jī)會(huì)識(shí)別是其中一個(gè)重要的從良好的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃產(chǎn)生的。除非問(wèn)題或機(jī)會(huì)被確立存在，否則任何問(wèn)題都不能得到解決，也不可能抓住機(jī)會(huì)。第二個(gè)要素是要建立目標(biāo)(目標(biāo))。設(shè)定目標(biāo)是不是獨(dú)立身份的機(jī)會(huì)。如果目標(biāo)是實(shí)現(xiàn)每年15,的銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)，如果目標(biāo)就是要避免出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)，將需要花費(fèi)更多的資源的見(jiàn)解。有人可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，高層管理人員應(yīng)停止去設(shè)定目標(biāo)，并且把一切別的東西留給操作經(jīng)理。例如，高層管理人員制定的目標(biāo)可能獲得至少25,的投資回報(bào)(ROI)，保持每年15,的增長(zhǎng)速度，作為壟斷企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)目標(biāo)總額的20,的市場(chǎng)份額。經(jīng)營(yíng)管理，然后建立將目標(biāo)如何實(shí)現(xiàn)的細(xì)節(jié)。常見(jiàn)的管理風(fēng)格是“靠他們的目標(biāo)”。如果有經(jīng)營(yíng)目標(biāo),目標(biāo)是由領(lǐng)導(dǎo)設(shè)置,但得到目標(biāo)的具體方法不是控制。結(jié)果很重要,而不是得到結(jié)果的方法。績(jī)效評(píng)估代替了詳細(xì)的監(jiān)督。因此目標(biāo)設(shè)定成為了重要元素的戰(zhàn)略計(jì)劃。我們現(xiàn)在有問(wèn)題和目標(biāo)定義。第三個(gè)要素是有程序以提供可能的解決方法或者“路線”，以便于公司能跟著找到解決的辦法。例如,當(dāng)前能源形勢(shì)可以被定義為一個(gè)問(wèn)題或一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。目標(biāo)似乎可以實(shí)現(xiàn)能源獨(dú)立或特定的投資回