美國(guó)聯(lián)邦能源管理委員會(huì)+2023夏季能源市場(chǎng)和電力可靠性評(píng)估

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2023

SummerEnergyMarket

andElectricReliability

Assessment

AStaffReporttotheCommission

May18,2023

FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSIONOfficeofEnergyPolicyandInnovation

OfficeofElectricReliability

ThisreportisaproductoftheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionStaff.TheviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheCommissionoranyCommissioner.

PREFACE

The2023SummerEnergyMarketandElectricReliabilityAssessment(SummerAssessment)providesstaff’soutlookforenergymarketsandelectricreliabilityfocusingontheupcomingperiodfromJunetoSeptember2023.Thereportcontainsfourmainsections.ThefirstsectionsummarizesthefindingsoftheSummerAssessment.Thesecond

sectiondetailstheweatheroutlookforsummer2023.Thethirdsectiondiscussesenergymarketfundamentals,

primarilyelectricmarketandnaturalgassupplyanddemandexpectations,includingexpectedNorthAmerican

ElectricReliabilityCorporation(NERC)regionalresourceadequacydetails.Thefourthsectionhighlightsunique

issuesnationwideandspecificallyaddressesthepotentialimplicationsofpipelineoutages,drought,hydroelectricpower,andwildfiresonwesternUnitedStates(U.S.)energymarkets.

The2023SummerAssessmentisajointreportfromtheCommission’sOfficeofEnergyPolicyandInnovation’s

DivisionofEnergyMarketAssessmentsandtheOfficeofElectricReliability’sDivisionofEngineeringandLogistics.

KEYFINDINGS

WeatherOutlook:Higher-than-averagetemperaturesareexpectedtohaveasignificanteffectonelectricity

demandforthecomingsummer.TheU.S.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)forecastsa50%to70%likelihoodofhigher-than-averagetemperaturesforJunethroughSeptember2023inmostpartsofthecountry,which,ifmaterialized,couldresultinhigherelectricitydemandforspacecooling.Otherweatherphenomenaaffectingelectricitydemand,includingtheElNi?o-SouthernOscillation1andmoresevereseasonalstormsincoastalstatesborderingtheAtlanticOceanandGulfofMexico,mayalsoaffecttheoverallenergy

marketsandgridreliability.

EnergyMarketFundamentalsandElectricReliability:DatasubmittedbytheregionstotheNorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation(NERC)forecaststhatallregionswillhavesufficientgeneratingresourcestomeetexpectedsummerdemandandoperatingreserverequirementsundernormaloperatingconditions.However,someregionsmayneedtorelyonoperatingmitigationsduringchallengingsummerconditions.TheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)forecastsaggregatenetsummerelectricgeneratingcapacityisexpectedto

increasefrom1,138gigawatts(GW)insummer2022to1,167GWthissummer,reflectingtheadditionofnew

solarandwindgeneration.Batterystoragecapacityadditionsareanticipatedtoincreasefrom4.4GW(summer2022)to7.0GWinsummer2023asthefourth-largestsourceofadditionsfollowingsolarandwind,nearly

equalingtotalnaturalgas-firedgeneratingcapacityadditions.

Whileplanningreservemarginsexceedthetargetedlevels,allregionsmaystillfaceenergyshortfallsduring

extremeoperatingconditionscausedbyextremeheat,wildfire,orothergriddisturbances.Therisksofthese

conditionsaremoreacuteincertainpartsoftheElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(ERCOT),2theMidcontinent

1TheElNi?o-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)isarecurringclimatepatterninvolvingoscillatingwarmingandcoolingpatternchangesinthetemperatureofwatersinthecentralandeasterntropicalPacificOceanandcanhaveastronginfluenceonweatheracrosstheUSandotherpartsoftheworld.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration((NOOA),NationalWeatherService(NWS),WhatisENSO?

/mhx/ensowhat

.

2ERCOTislocatedentirelyinthestateofTexas.NERC,2022LongTermReliabilityAssessment(December2022),

/pa/RAPA/ra/

Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

2023SUMMERENERGYMARKETASSESSMENT.1.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSION

ISO(MISO),3NewEngland,4theSERCReliability–Centralsubregion(SERC-Central),5theSouthwestPowerPool

(SPP),6andtheWesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncil(WECC).7NERCanticipatestheseregionswillhaveadequateresourcesavailabletomeettheexpectedoperatingreserverequirementunderanormaldemandscenario,butcouldfacearesourceshortfallunderanextremedemandscenario.Finally,U.S.electricmarketparticipantscontinuetocallondemandresponsetohelpbalanceelectricitydemandwithavailablesupplyduringperiodsofextremeweather,asseenduringthewildfiresinCaliforniaandheateventsacrossseveralregionsduringthepastthreesummers.

OtherFuelsforElectricGeneration:Coalstockpilesatpowerplantsremainrelativelylowcomparedtohistoricallevels,althoughEIAforecaststhatcoalstockpiledbythepowersectorwillincreasebymorethan30%between

theendofDecember2022andMay2023,afterwhichitwilldeclineaselectricpowergenerationrampsuptomeetsummerair-conditioningneeds.However,coalshipmentstoelectricgeneratorsprimarilyfromthewesternUnitedStatescontinuetoexperiencefreightrailserviceissues,whichmayaffectavailablesuppliesatcoalplants.

Duringthesummer,manyelectricgeneratorsthatrunonpetroleumandliquidfuelssuchasfueloilwilllookto

replenishfuelsuppliesthatwerediminishedduringthepreviouswinter,withrestockingdependentonsupplyandpricingtrends.Additionally,duringcriticalperiods,oil-firedgeneratorsplayanimportantroleinensuringreliability,astheymayprovidetheneeded,additionalpowertothegridinextremeconditions.Currentdatashowthatongoinggrowthinthecommercialinventoryofpetroleumandliquidfuels,withlowerpricescomparedtolastsummer,

shouldmakeiteasierforgeneratorstorestockon-sitestorage.

NaturalGasFundamentals:Thenaturalgasmarketisexpectedtobewell-supplied,indicatingthat,onaverage,

naturalgaspricesshouldbelowerthanlastsummer.Record-highnaturalgasproductionlevels,alongwithabove-

averagenaturalgasstorageinventories,areanticipatedtooffsetnaturalgasdemandthatwillalsobeatrecordlevels.AsofApril20,2023,theHenryHub8futurescontractpriceaveraged$2.41perMillionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)

forthemonthsJune2023throughSeptember2023,adeclineof71.3%fromthesummer2022settledpriceaverage.IntheMay2023ShortTermEnergyOutlook,theEIAforecastsanewrecordforsummerdrynaturalgasproductionat100.1billioncubicfeetperday(Bcfd),whichrepresentsaslightyear-over-yearincreaseofapproximately0.9%.However,year-over-yeargrowthofnaturalgasproductioncontinuestoshowaslowingtrend.Intheyearsprior

totheCOVID-19pandemic(2017–2019),summerdrynaturalgasproductiongrowthexceeded10%perannum.

3MISOencompasses15U.S.statesincludingArkansas,Illinois,Indiana,Iowa,Kentucky,Louisiana,Michigan,Minnesota,Mississippi,Missouri,

Montana,NorthDakota,SouthDakota,Texas,andWisconsin,andtheCanadianprovinceofManitoba.NERC,2022LongTermReliabilityAssessment(December2022),

/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

4TheNortheastPowerCoordinatingCouncil-NewEnglandsubareaconsistsofthestatesofConnecticut,Maine,Massachusetts,NewHampshire,RhodeIsland,andVermontservedbyISONewEngland(ISO-NE)Inc.NERC,2022LongTermReliabilityAssessment,(December2022),

https://www.

/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

5SERC-ReliabilityCorporation,CentralincludesallofTennesseeandportionsofGeorgia,Alabama,Mississippi,Missouri,andKentucky.NERC,NERC2022LongTermReliabilityAssessment,(December2022),

/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

6TheSouthwestPowerPoolencompassesallorpartsofArkansas,Iowa,Kansas,Louisiana,Minnesota,Missouri,Montana,Nebraska,NewMexico,NorthDakota,Oklahoma,SouthDakota,Texas,andWyoming.NERC,NERC2022LongTermReliabilityAssessment,(December2022),

https://www.

/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

7WECC’sserviceterritoryextendsfromCanadatoMexico.ItincludestheprovincesofAlbertaandBritishColumbiainCanada,thenorthern

portionofBajaCaliforniainMexicoaswellasallorportionsofthe14WesternUnitedStatesinbetween.ThisreportfocusesontheU.S.portionsofWECCandnotCanadianprovinces.NERC,NERC2022LongTermReliabilityAssessment,(December2022),

/pa/RAPA/ra/

Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

8HenryHubisanaturalgaspipelinehublocatedinErath,La.,thatservesastheofficialdeliverylocationforfuturescontractsontheNewYorkMercantileExchange(NYMEX).

2023SUMMERENERGYMARKETASSESSMENT.2.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSION

Aftertheproductiondeclineduetothepandemicin2020,productionsurgedtopre-pandemiclevelsin2021butthegrowthratehassinceretreatedtoabouta2.7%summer-over-summercompoundedgrowthrateacross2022and2023.Meanwhile,EIAforecaststotalnaturalgasdemandintheUnitedStatestoaverage94.1Bcfdinsummer2023,whichis4.4%morethaninsummer2022and14%morethantheaverageofthepreviousfivesummers.

Thisincreaseinnaturalgasdemandforsummer2023isexpectedtoprimarilycomefromnaturalgasnetexports(includingliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)andpipelinenetexports)thatareforecasttoaverage13.9Bcfdinsummer2023,up36.9%fromsummer2022levels.Naturalgasdemandfromthepowersector(forpurposesofgeneratingelectricity),incontrast,isexpectedtoaverage40.5Bcfdinsummer2023,down2.0%fromsummer2022levels.Atthestartofthe2023injectionseason(April-October),U.S.naturalgasstorageinventoriestotaled1,830billioncubicfeet(Bcf),whichwas22%,or329Bcf,morethantheaverageofinventorylevelsatthestartofthelastfiveinjectionseasons.AccordingtoEIA,naturalgasstorageinventoriesareforecasttogrowapproximately1,932Bcfduringthe2023injectionseason,andtoentertheupcomingwinter3%abovetheaveragestartinglevelofthe

lastfivewithdrawalseasons.

CaliforniaNaturalGasSupply:Californiaseemslikelytohaveaccesstomoreupstreamnaturalgaspipelinecapacitythissummercomparedtosummer2022,particularlyafterElPasoNaturalGasPipeline’sLine2000

returnedtofullservice.However,naturalgasstoragelevelsintheEIA’sPacificregion,ofwhichCaliforniamakesupthemajority,hadfallento57.5%belowthefive-yearaverageattheendofthe2022-2023winterseason,andmoresupplyisexpectedtorefillinventoriescomparedtolastsummer.

DroughtandWaterConditions:HeavyprecipitationinCaliforniaoverwinter2022-2023hasalleviatedsome

droughtconcernsandislikelytosupporthydropowergenerationinmuchoftheWest.Currently,California

snowpacklevelshavebeenmeasuredashighas232%ofthehistoricalmedian–amajorincreasefromlastyearwhensnowpacklevelswerejust22%ofmedian,meanwhilelevelsarelowerinthePacificNorthwestandeasternpartofWECC.9AlthoughimproveddroughtconditionsinpartsoftheWestmaylowerwildfirerisksduringsummer2023,uncertaintyassociatedwithchangingconditionsremains.Notably,theWestexperiencedarelativelymildwildfireseasonin2022,comparedtothelongandintensewildfireseasonsin2020and2021.AlthoughasofMay1,2023,theNationalInteragencyFireCenternotesthattheUpperMidwestfacesabove-normalsignificantwildfirepotentialinJune2023.TheGreatBasinCoordinationCenteralsoforecastsareasofsignificantwildfireriskin

Washington,Oregon,IdahoandNevadainJulyandAugust.10Inaddition,partsofTexas,themid-Continent,

andareasofthePacificNorthwest,especiallyOregon,areexpectedtoremainindroughtthroughthesummer.

ElectricRisks:Inadditiontoweatherandmarketconditions,reliabilitytrendsofrecentyearsmayposeareliabilityriskthissummeriftheypersist.TheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)electricdisturbancereportsprovidedbyutilities

indicatethatsecurityincidents,includingvandalism,suspiciousactivity,andcybereventsontheBulkPowerSystem

9AccordingtotheNationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem,2023WesternDroughtWebinaronMay9,2023,approximately25%ofthewesternU.S.iscurrentlyclassifiedasindrought.“Werecognizethisyear’sconditionsarenotwithoutcaveats,suchasnotallstatesreceivedabove-normalprecipitation,somereceivedtoomuchprecipitationandaresufferingfromsevereflooding,andlong-termdroughtremains,”GenovevaDeheza,executivedirectoroftheNIDIS.

10GreaterBasinCoordinationCenter,GreatBasinSeasonalOutlookMay–(A

ugust2023),/gbcc/predictive/docs/monthly_

seasonal.pdf

.

2023SUMMERENERGYMARKETASSESSMENT.3.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSION

(BPS)11areontherise,and2022sawthehighestnumberofreportedincidentssincethereportingofsuchactivitiesbeganin2011.Newregulatoryactionsandlegislationfromstateandfederalbodies,includingafair-tradeprobe

intocertainsolarpanelimports,andenvironmentalregulations,couldaffecttheseelectricreliabilityconcerns

goingforward.Additionally,ongoingchangesindemandpatterns,suchasthoseunderwayinPJMInterconnection’s12DataCenterAlley,showtheneedforadditionalinvestmenttohandleincreasinglylocalizedissues.Further,

continueddisruptionstothesupplychainfromtheCOVID-19pandemicandglobaleconomicsituationcreatechallengesforadditionsofnewandreplacementelectricsystemequipment,whichmayimpactgridreliabilityandsecurityin2023.

11TheBulkPowerSystemincludesfacilitiesandcontrolsystemsnecessaryforoperatinganinterconnectedelectricenergytransmissionnetwork(oranyportionthereof)andelectricenergyfromgenerationfacilitiesneededtomaintaintransmissionsystemreliability.Thetermdoesnotincludefacilitiesusedinthelocaldistributionofelectricenergyorspecifyelementsthatarefurtherdefinedinthesubsetofcomponentsknownasthe

BulkElectricalSystem(BES).NERC,GlossaryofTermsUsedinNERCReliabilityStandards,

/pa/Stand/Glossary%20of%20

Terms/GlossaryofTerms.pdf.

12PJMInterconnection(PJM)coordinatesthemovementofelectricitythroughallorpartsofDelaware,Illinois,Indiana,Kentucky,Maryland,Michigan,NewJersey,NorthCarolina,Ohio,Pennsylvania,Tennessee,Virginia,WestVirginia,andtheDistrictofColumbia.

2023SUMMERENERGYMARKETASSESSMENT.4.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSION

Valid:July-August-September2023Issued:April20,2023

WEATHEROUTLOOK

Weatherisafundamentaldeterminantofthedemandforenergy.Weathercanalsoimpactthesupplyof

energy.Forinstance,hottemperaturesincreasecoolingdemand,raisingthedemandforbothelectricpower

andnaturalgasasafuelforelectricgeneration,and

canstresselectricinfrastructure.Weatherevents,suchashurricanesmakinglandfallalongtheGulfCoast,canimpacttheproductionofcrudeoilandnaturalgas,ordamageelectricequipment.

Aswiththepasttwoyears,NOAAforecaststhat

temperaturesthissummerwillbeabovenormalfor

mostoftheUnitedStatescomparedtoNOAA’s1991-

2020U.S.ClimateNormals.Above-normaltemperaturesaremorethan50%likelytooccurthroughoutthe

continentalUnitedStates,withonlyNorthDakota;

SouthDakota;Minnesota;Iowa;Missouri;andportionsofMontana,Nebraska,andIndianaexpectedtohaveanequalchanceofabove-orbelow-normaltemperatures.

InJune,JulyandAugust,chancesofabove-normal

temperaturesarehighest,at60-70%,alongtheEast

CoastandinthesouthernUnitedStates.ForJuly,August,andSeptember,chancesofabove-normaltemperaturesincreaseinthePacificNorthwestandSouthwest,whiledeclininginTexasandtheGulfCoaststates.

ELNI?O-SOUTHERNOSCILLATION

AfterseveralyearsinaLaNi?a(cooling)pattern,

theUnitedStatesisenteringanElNi?o(warming)

pattern.TheElNino-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)is

anoscillatingwarmingandcoolingclimatepattern

thatcanimpactglobalweatherconditions,directly

affectsrainfalldistributioninthetropicsandcanhaveastronginfluenceonweatheracrosstheUnitedStatesandotherpartsoftheworld.13Thisshiftingweather,

particularlyshiftingtemperaturesduringthesummer,

Figure1:NOAAWeatherOutlook

SeasonalTempertureOutlook

Valid:June-July-August2023Issued:April20,2023

Probability(PercentChance)

AboveNormalBelowNormal

leaningabove

likelyabove

33-40%40-50%50-60%60-70%70-80%80-90%90-100%

EqualChances

33-40%40-50%50-60%60-70%70-80%80-90%90-100%

leaningbelow

likelybelow

Source:NOAA

13ElNi?oandLaNi?aaretheextremephasesoftheENSOcycle;betweenthesetwophasesisathirdphasecalledENSO-neutral.NOAANWS,WhatisElNi?o-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)?

/mhx/ensowhat

.

2023SUMMERENERGYMARKETASSESSMENT.5.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSION

canaffectelectricitydemandforspacecooling.14AsofApril13,2023,NOAAreportedthatPacificOceanseasurface

temperatureswerenear-to-aboveaverage,andthatENSO-neutralconditionswereexpectedtocontinueinthe

NorthernHemispherethroughthespring.NOAAforecasta62%chanceofElNi?odevelopingbetweenMayand

July2023.15Specifically,ElNi?oconditionsforthesummercanresultindrierconditionsintheEastandincreased

precipitationintheWest.16ElNi?oeventsgenerallysuppressAtlantichurricaneactivitysofewer-than-normal

hurricanesformintheAtlanticduringAugusttoOctober,thepeakofAtlantichurricaneseason.However,the

incidenceofhurricanesishigherduringtheneutralphase(whenneitherElNi?onorLaNi?aareineffect)thanduringElNi?o.AlthoughhurricanesoccurmoreoftenduringLaNi?aepisodes,significanttropicalweathereventshave

occurredduringtheneutralphase.17

STORM/HURRICANESFORECAST

Hurricaneweatherconditionsthreatenoilandnaturalgasproduction,oilandnaturalgaspipelinetransmissionsystems,andelectrictransmissionnetworksalongtheGulfandAtlanticCoast.

The2022hurricaneseasonproduced14namedstorms,ofwhicheightbecamehurricanesandtwointensifiedto

majorhurricanes.Anaveragehurricaneseasonhas14namedstorms,sevenhurricanes,andthreemajorhurricanes.18TwohurricanesmadelandfallinthecontiguousUnitedStatesin2022,HurricaneIan19(asaCategory4andCategory1)andHurricaneNicole(alateseasonCategory1),whileHurricaneFionamadelandfalloutsidethemainlandasa

Category1inPuertoRico.20TheAtlantichurricaneseasonrunsfromJune1throughNovember30,typicallypeakinginlatesummerorearlyfall.NOAAwillreleasethe2023AtlantichurricaneoutlookonMay25,2023.21

ENERGYMARKETFUNDAMENTALSANDELECTRICRELIABILITY

Thissectionofthereportsummarizeselectricityandnaturalgasmarketfundamentalsexpectedforsummer2023,includingregionalreservemargins,probabilisticassessmentsandelectricgenerationcapacityadditionsand

retirements,aswellasnaturalgasprices,production,anddemand.

14Thesewarmerorcoolerthannormaloceantemperaturescanaffectweatherpatternsaroundtheworldbyinfluencinghigh-andlow-pressuresystems,winds,andprecipitation.ENSOmaybringmuchneededmoisturetoaregionwhilecausingextremesoftoomuchortoolittlewaterinothers.NOAAPhysicalSciencesLaboratory,ElNi?oSouthernOscillation(ENSO),

/enso/

.

15NOAA,ElNi?o/SouthernOscillation(ENSO)DiagnosticDiscussion.April13,2023.

/products/analysis_monitoring/

enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

.

16NationalInteragencyFireCenter,NationalSignificantWildlandFirePotentialOutlookMay–August2023(May1,2023),

/gbcc/

predictive/docs/monthly_seasonal.pdf.

17NOAANWS,ElNi?oandLaNi?a:HowdoElNi?oandLaNi?aaffecttheAtlantichurricaneseason?

/jan/el_nino_andla

nina#How_doElNino_and_La_Nina_affect_the_Atlantic_hurricane_season

.

18NOAA,Damaging2022Atlantichurricaneseasondrawstoaclose(November29,2022),

/news-release/damaging-2022-

atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-close

.

19HurricaneIanbrieflyreachedmaximumCategory5statusbeforeweakeningtoaCategory4stormasitmadelandfallinsouthwestFlorida.IanalsoimpactedGeorgia,Virginia,andtheCarolinas.Morethan4.4millioncustomerslostpowerintheUnitedStatesduringHurricaneIan.NOAANWS,

NationalHurricaneCenterTropicalCycloneReport(April3,2023),

/data/tcr/AL092022_Ian.pdf.

20NOAA,HurricaneFiona(September2022),

/data/tcr/AL072022_Fiona.pdf.

21NOAA,NOAAtoannounce2023Atlantichurricaneseasonoutlook(May15,2023),

/media-advisory/noaa-to-announce-2023-

atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

.

2023SUMMERENERGYMARKETASSESSMENT.6.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSION

ElectricityMarketFundamentalsandElectricReliability

Onbalance,muchofthenationshouldseelowerelectricitypricesthissummerasaresultoffactorssuchaslowernaturalgaspricesandincreasedavailabilityofhydroelectricpowerinportionsoftheWest.Othersupply/demandfactorssuchascapacityadditions,primarilyfromwind,solar,andstorage,shouldincreaseaggregatecapacity

supply,althoughthisispartiallyoffsetbyretirementsofprimarilycoalcapacityinmanyregions.Increaseddemandfromexpectedwarmer-than-averageweather,andtheresultingelectricdemandforcooling,mayalsoputupwardpricepressureonelectricityprices.

ThissectiondetailsprobabilisticanalysesconductedbyNERCdemonstratingpossibleconcernsforthissummer.NERCusesresourceprojectionsforJunetoSeptember2023initsanalysisofsummerreservemargins;allother

analysesbyFERCstaffinthisreportuseEIAdataandforecastscoveringtheperiodsincelastsummer,fromOctober2022toSeptember2023.

REGIONALHIGHLIGHTSANDNERCPROBABILISTICASSESSMENTS

AccordingtopreliminarydatafromNERC,22theplanningreservemargins23forsummer2023exceedthereference

(target)reservelevelmargins24forthe13NERCassessmentareas.25Overall,thereappeartobesufficientresourcestomeetexpectedU.S.electricdemandundernormalsummerconditionsforsummer2023.Despitetheexpected

amplereservemargins,electricregionscanstillfacetighter-than-expectedsupplyconditionsifoperatingconditionsdeviatesignificantlyfromthoseanticipatedforthissummer.Reservemarginsdonotnecessarilyaccountforextremesummerconditionsthatcanleadtoderatesofelectricgenerators,unexpectedgeneratoroutages,transmission

outages,reducedpowertransfersfromadjacentareas,andotherfactorsthatcouldaffectaregion’sabilitytoservecustomersandmaintainadequateoperatingreserves.Therefore,althoughallregionsareexpectedtomaintain

adequatereservemarginsthroughsummer2023,reservemarginsdonotguaranteereliableoperations.Avarietyoffactorsaffectreliableoperationsandaremanagedbysystemoperatorstohelpmaintainelectricsupplyandreliability.MorecomprehensivereliabilityassessmentsforMISO,ERCOT,WECC-CAMX,WECC-SW,WECC-NW,andNPCC-NEarepresentedintheProbabilisticAssessmentsandRegionalProfilessectionbelow.

22DatainthissectioniscalculatedwithpreliminarydataprovidedbytheNERCregionsfromNERC’s2023SummerReliabilityAssessment.Foramoredetailedanalysisthatincludesprobabilisticscenarioconditions,refertotheProbabilisticAssessmentandRegionalProfilessectionofthisreport.

23Theplanningreservemarginisdesignedtomeasuretheamountofgenerationcapacityavailabletomeetexpecteddemandinaplanninghorizon.NERC,ReliabilityIndicators,Metric1-ReserveMargin,

/pa/RAPA/ri/Pages/PlanningReserveMargin.aspx

.

24Alsoknownasatargetreservemargin,thereferencereservelevelmarginisprovidedbytheregion/subregionbasedonload,generation,andtransmissioncharacteristicsaswellasregulatoryrequirements.NERC,ReliabilityIndicators,Metric1-ReserveMargin,

/pa/

RAPA/ri/Pages/PlanningReserveMargin.aspx

.

25The13U.S.assessmentareasaretheNortheastPowerCoordinatingCouncil(NPCC);whichincludestheNPCC-NewEnglandandNPCC-New

Yorksubregions;PJM;theSouthEasternReliabilityEntity(SERC)andsubregionsSERC-Central,SERC-East,SERC-Southeast,andSERCFloridaPeninsula;theMidcontinentISO(MISO);theSouthwestPowerPool(SPP);theTexasReliabilityEntity-ElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(TRE/ERCOT);andtheWesternElectricCoordinatingCouncil(WECC)withsubregionsWECC-NWPP(NorthwestPowerPool),WECC-SWRSG(SouthwestReserveSharingGroup),andWECC-CAMX(California-Mexico).NERC,Long-TermReliabilityAssessment(December2022),

/

pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2022.pdf.

2023SUMMERENERGYMARKETASSESSMENT.7.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSION

RegionalDemand

&Resources(GW)

Figure2:NERC2022and2023DemandandResources

NetInternalDemand2022

NetInternalDemand2023

2022Resources&NetTransfers2023Resources&NetTransfers

250

200

150

100

50

0

MISONPCC-US

ERCOTWECC-US

PJMSERCSPP

NERC/ISO/RTORegions

Source:NorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation

Figure2showsthenetinternaldemand26assolidbarsandtheavailableresourcesandnettransfervalues27(a

combinationofinternalresourcesandadditionalexternalresourcesavailabletotheregion)asdiamonds.Theseshowbothsummer2022andsummer2023forcomparison.Staffalignedtheassessmentareastopresentamoreregionalanalysis.InFigure2,theNortheastPowerCoordinatingCouncil(NPCC)subregionsofNewEngland

(NPCC-NE)andNewYork(NPCC-NY)arecombinedasNPCC-US;theSoutheastReliabilityCouncil(SERC)

subregionsofSERC-East,SERC-Central,SERC-SouthEastandSERC-FloridaarecombinedasSERC;28andthe

WECC-CAMX,WECC-SWandWECC-NWsubregionsarecombinedasWECC-US.29Thisgraphicshowsthatallregionshavesufficientavailab