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Excel和PPTExcel就是我手把手的像現(xiàn)場課一樣帶著大Yilandwe,whosecurrencyistheYilandweRand(YR),hasfacedextremelydifficulteconomicchallengesinthepast25yearsbecauseofsomequestionableeconomicpoliciesandpoliticaldecisionsmadebyitspreviousgovernments.AlthoughYilandwe’spopulationisgenerallypoor,itspeopleareneverthelesswell-educatedandambitious.Justoverthreeyearsago,anewgovernmenttookofficeandsincethenithasimposedanumberofstrictmonetaryandfiscalcontrols,includinganannualcorporationtaxrateof40%,inanattempttobringYilandweoutofitsdifficulties.Asaresult,theannualrateofinflationhasfallenrapidlyfromahighof65%toitscurrentlevelof33%.ThesestrictmonetaryandfiscalcontrolshavemadeYilandwe’sgovernmentpopularinthelargercitiesandtowns,butlesspopularintheruralareaswhichseemtohavesuffereddisproportionatelyfromthestrictmonetaryandfiscalcontrols.ItisexpectedthatYilandwe’sannualinflationratewillcontinuetofallinthecomingfewyearsasfollows: Inflation 220% 147%3 98%Yilandwe’sgovernmenthasdecidedtocontinuetheprogressmadesofar,byencouragingforeigndirectinvestmentintothecountry.Recently,governmentrepresentativesheldtradeshowsinternationallyandofferedbusinessesanumberofconcessions,zerocorporationtaxpayableinthefirsttwoyearsofoperation;andanopportunitytocarryforwardtaxlossesandwritethemoffagainstfutureprofitsmadeafterthefirsttwoyears.ThegovernmentrepresentativesalsopromisedinternationalcompaniesinvestinginYilandweprimelocationsintownsandcitieswithgoodtransportlinks.ImoniImoniCo,alargelistedcompanybasedintheUSAwiththeUSdollar($)asitscurrency,manufactureshightechdiagnosticcomponentsformachinery,whichitexportsworldwide.Afterattendingoneofthetradeshows,ImoniCoisconsideringsettingupanassemblyplantinYilandwewherepartswouldbesentandassembledintoaspecifictypeofcomponent,whichiscurrentlybeingassembledintheUSA.Onceassembled,thecomponentwillbeexporteddirectlytocompaniesbasedintheEuropeanUnion(EU).TheseexportswillbeinvoicedinEuro(€).AssemblyplantinYilandwe:financialandotherdataItisinitiallyassumedthattheprojectwilllastforfouryears.Thefour-yearprojectwillrequireinvestmentsofYR21,000millionforlandandbuildings,YR18,000millionformachineryandYR9,600millionforworkingcapitaltobemadeimmediately.TheworkingcapitalwillneedtobeincreasedannuallyatthestartofeachofthenextthreeyearsbyYilandwe’sinflationrateanditisassumedthatthiswillbereleasedattheendoftheproject’slife.Itcanbeassumedthattheassemblyplantcanbebuiltveryquicklyandproductionstartedalmostimmediately.Thisisbecausethebasicfacilitiesandinfrastructurearealreadyinplaceastheplantwillbebuiltonthepremisesandgroundsofaschool.Theschoolisideallylocated,nearthemainhighwayandrailwaylines.Asaresult,theschoolwillcloseandthechildrencurrentlystudyingtherewillberelocatedtootherschoolsinthecity.Thegovernmenthaskindlyagreedtoprovidefreebusestotakethechildrentotheseschoolsforaperiodofsixmonthstogiveparentstimetoarrangeappropriatetransportinthefuturefortheirchildren.Thecurrentsellingpriceofeachcomponentis€700andthispriceislikelytoincreasebytheaverageEUrateofinflationfromyear1Thenumberofcomponentsexpectedtobesoldeveryyearareas1234SalescomponentunitsThepartsneededtoassembleintothecomponentsinYilandwewillbesentfromtheUSAbyImoniCoatacostof$200percomponentunit,fromwhichImoniCowouldcurrentlyearnapre-taxcontributionof$40foreachcomponentunit.However,ImoniCofeelsthatitcannegotiatewithYilandwe’sgovernmentandincreasethetransferpriceto$280percomponentunit.ThevariablecostsrelatedtoassemblingthecomponentsinYilandwearecurrentlyYR15,960percomponentunit.ThecurrentannualfixedcostsoftheassemblyplantareYR4,600million.Allthesecosts,whereverincurred,areexpectedtoincreasebythatcountry’sannualinflationeveryyearfromyear1onwards.ImoniCopayscorporationtaxonprofitsatanannualrateof20%intheUSA.ThetaxinboththeUSAandYilandweispayableintheyearthatthetaxliabilityarises.AbilateraltaxtreatyexistsbetweenYilandweandtheUSA.Taxallowabledepreciationisavailableat25%peryearonthemachineryonastraight-linebasis.ImoniCowillexpectannualroyaltiesfromtheassemblyplanttobemadeeveryyear.Thenormalannualroyaltyfeeiscurrently$20million,butImoniCofeelsthatitcannegotiatethiswithYilandwe’sgovernmentandincreasetheroyaltyfeeby80%.Onceagreed,thisfeewillnotbesubjecttoanyinflationaryincreaseintheproject’sfour-yearperiod.IfImoniCodoesdecidetoinvestinanassemblyplantinYilandwe,itsexportsfromtheUSAtotheEUwillfallanditwillincurredundancycosts.Asaresult,ImoniCo’safter-taxcashflowswillreducebythefollowingamounts:1234RedundancyandlostImoniConormallyusesitscostofcapitalof9%toassessnewprojects.However,thefinancedirectorsuggeststhatImoniCoshoulduseaprojectspecificdiscountrateof12%CurrentspotratesEuroper €0714/$1YRper YRper YR1014/$1Forecastfutureratesbasedonexpectedinflationrate1234120113371425151912341650180219022008ExpectedinflationEUexpectedinflationrate:NexttwoEUexpectedinflationrate:Year3USAexpectedinflationrate:Year1DiscussthepossiblebenefitsanddrawbackstoImoniCoofsettingupitsownassemblyplantinYilandwe,comparedtolicensingacompanybasedinYilandwetoundertaketheassemblyonitsbehalf.(5PrepareareportEvaluatesthefinancialacceptabilityoftheinvestmentintheassemblyplantinYilandwe; (21marks)Discussestheassumptionsmadeinproducingtheestimates,andtheotherrisksandissueswhichImoniCoshouldconsiderbeforemakingthefinaldecision; ProvidesareasonedrecommendationonwhetherornotImoniCoshouldinvestintheassemblyplantinYilandwe.Professionalmarkswillbeawardedinpart(b)fortheformat,structureandpresentationofthereport. (4marks)(50BenefitsofowninvestmentasopposedtoImoniComaybeabletobenefitfromsettingupitsownplantasopposedtolicensinginanumberofways.Yilandwewantstoattractforeigninvestmentandiswillingtoofferanumberoffinancialconcessionstoforeigninvestorswhichmaynotbeavailabletolocalcompanies.Thecompanymaybeabletocontrolthequalityofthecomponentsmoreeasily,andofferbetterandtargetedtrainingfacilitiesifithasdirectcontrolofthelabourresources.Thecompanymayalsobeabletomaintaintheconfidentialityofitsproducts,whereasassigningtheassemblyrightstoanothercompanymayallowthatcompanytoimitatetheproductsmoreeasily.Investinginternationallymayprovideopportunitiesforriskdiversification,especiallyifImoniCo’sshareholdersarenotwell-diversifiedinternationallythemselves.Finally,directinvestmentmayprovideImoniCowithnewopportunitiesinthefuture,suchasfollow-onoptions.DrawbacksofowninvestmentasopposedtolicensingDirectinvestmentinanewplantwillprobablyrequirehigher,upfrontcostsfromImoniCocomparedtolicensingtheassemblyrightstoalocalmanufacturer.Itmaybeabletoutilisethesesavedcostsonotherprojects.ImoniCowillmostlikelybeexposedtohigherrisksinvolvedwithinternationalinvestmentsuchaspoliticalrisks,culturalrisksandlegalrisks.Withlicensingtheserisksmaybereducedsomewhat.Thelicensee,becauseitwouldbealocalcompany,mayunderstandtheoperationalsystemsofdoingbusinessinYilandwebetter.Itwillthereforebeabletogetoff-the-groundquicker.ImoniCo,ontheotherhand,willneedtobecomefamiliarwiththelocalsystemsandculture,whichmaytaketimeandmakeitlessefficientinitially.Similarly,investingdirectlyinYilandwemaymeanthatitcostsImoniComoretotrainthestaffandpossiblyrequireasteeperlearningcurvefromthem.However,thescenariodoessaythatthecountryhasamotivatedandwell-educatedlabourforceandthismaymitigatethisissuesomewhat.(Note:Creditwillbegivenforalternative,relevantReportontheproposedassemblyplantinThisreportconsiderswhetherornotitwouldbebeneficialforImoniCotosetupapartsassemblyplantinYilandwe.Ittakesaccountofthefinancialprojections,presentedindetailinappendices1and2,discussestheassumptionsmadeinarrivingattheprojectionsanddiscussesothernon-financialissueswhichshouldbeconsidered.ThereportconcludesbygivingareasonedrecommendationontheacceptabilityoftheAssumptionsmadeinproducingthefinancialItisassumedthatalltheestimatessuchassalesrevenue,costs,royalties,initialinvestmentcosts,workingcapital,andcostsofcapitalandinflationfiguresareaccurate.Thereisconsiderableuncertaintysurroundingtheaccuracyoftheseandasmallchangeinthemcouldchangetheforecastsoftheprojectquiteconsiderably.Anumberofprojectionsusingsensitivityandscenarioanalysismayaidinthedecisionmakingprocess.ItisassumedthatnoadditionaltaxispayableintheUSAfortheprofitsmadeduringthefirsttwoyearsoftheproject’slifewhenthecompanywillnotpaytaxinYilandweeither.Thisisespeciallyrelevanttoyear2oftheproject.Nodetailsareprovidedonwhetherornottheprojectendsafterfouryears.Thisisanassumptionwhichismade,buttheprojectmaylastbeyondfouryearsandthereforemayyieldapositivenetpresentvalue.Additionally,eveniftheprojectceasesafterfouryears,nodetailsaregivenaboutthesaleoftheland,buildingsandmachinery.Theresidualvalueofthesenon-currentassetscouldhaveaconsiderablebearingontheoutcomeoftheItisassumedthattheincreaseinthetransferpriceofthepartssentfromtheUSAdirectlyincreasesthecontributionwhichImoniCoearnsfromthetransfer.Thisisprobablynotanunreasonableassumption.However,itisalsoassumedthatthenegotiationswithYilandwe’sgovernmentwillbesuccessfulwithrespecttoincreasingthetransferpriceandtheroyaltyfee.ImoniConeedstoassesswhetherornotthisassumptionisThebasisforusingacostofcapitalof12%isnotclearandanexplanationisnotprovidedaboutwhetherornotthisisanaccurateorreasonablefigure.Theunderpinningbasisforhowitisdeterminedmayneedfurtherinvestigation.Althoughthescenariostatesthattheprojectcanstartalmostimmediately,inrealitythismaynotbepossibleandImoniComayneedtofactorinpossibledelays.Itisassumedthatfutureexchangerateswillreflectthedifferentialininflationratesbetweentherespectivecountries.However,itisunlikelythattheexchangerateswillmovefullyinlinewiththeinflationratedifferentials.OtherrisksandInvestinginYilandwemayresultinsignificantpoliticalrisks.Thescenariostatesthatthecurrentpoliticalpartyisnotverypopularinruralareasandthatthepopulationremainsgenerallypoor.ImoniConeedstoassesshowlikelyitisthatthegovernmentmaychangeduringthetimeitisoperatinginYilandweandtheimpactofthechange.Forexample,anewgovernmentmayrenegeonthecurrentgovernment’soffersand/orbringinnewrestrictions.ImoniCowillneedtodecidewhattodoifthishappens.ImoniConeedstoassessthelikelihoodthatitwillbeallowedtoincreasethetransferpriceofthepartsandtheroyaltyfee.WhilstitmaybeoftheopinionthatcurrentlyYilandwemaybeopentosuchsuggestions,thismaydependontheinterestthegovernmentmaygetfromothercompaniestoinvestinYilandwe.ItmayconsiderthatagreeingtosuchdemandsfromImoniComaymakeitobligatedtoothercompaniesaswell.（積累思路，言之有ThefinancialprojectionsarepreparedonthebasisthatpositivecashflowsfromYilandwecanberemittedbacktotheUSA.ImoniConeedstoestablishthatthisisindeedthecaseandthatitislikelytocontinueinthefuture.ImoniConeedstobecarefulaboutitsethicalstanceanditsvalues,andtheimpactonitsreputation,giventhataschoolisbeingclosedinordertoprovideitwiththeproductionfacilitiesneeded.Whilstthegovernmentisfundingsomeofthetransportcostsforthechildren,thedisruptionthiswillcausetothechildrenandthefactthataftersixmonthsthetransportcostsbecometheparents’responsibility,mayhavealarge,negativeimpactonthecompany’simageandmaybecontrarytotheethicalvalueswhichthecompanyholds.Thepossibilityofalternativevenuesshouldbeexplored.ImoniConeedstotakeaccountofculturalrisksassociatedwithsettingupabusinessinYilandwe.ThewayofdoingbusinessinYilandwemaybeverydifferentandtheemployeesmayneedsubstantialtrainingtoadapttoImoniCo’swayofdoingbusiness.Ontheotherhand,thefactthatthepopulationiswelleducated,motivatedandkeenmaymakethisprocesseasiertoachieve.ImoniCoalsoneedstoconsiderfiscalandregulatoryrisks.Thecompanywillneedtoassessthelikelihoodofchangesintaxrates,lawsandregulations,andsetupstrategiestomitigateeventualitieswhichcanbepredicted.Inadditiontothese,ImoniCoshouldalsoconsiderandmitigateasfaraspossible,operationalriskssuchasthequalityofthecomponentsandmaintenanceoftransportlinks.ImoniCoshouldassessandvaluealternativerealoptionswhichitmayhave.Forexample,itcouldconsiderwhetherlicensingtheproductionofthecomponentstoalocalcompanymaybemorefinanciallyviable;itcouldconsideralternativecountriestoYilandwe,whichmayoffermorebenefits;itcouldconsiderwhethertheprojectcanbeabandonedifcircumstanceschangeagainstthecompany;entryintoYilandwemayprovideImoniCowithotherbusinessopportunities.Theresultfromthefinancialprojectionsisthattheprojectshouldbeacceptedbecauseitresultsinapositivenetpresentvalue.Itisrecommendedthatthefinancialprojectionsshouldbeconsideredinconjunctionwiththeassumptions,theissuesandrisks,andtheimplicationsofthese,beforeafinaldecisionismade.Thereisconsiderablescopeforfurtherinvestigationandanalysis.Itisrecommendedthatsensitivityandscenarioanalysisbeundertakentotakeintoconsiderationcontinuingtheprojectbeyondfouryearsandsoon.Thevalueofanyaltern