重構(gòu)非洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長+Reimagining+Economic+Growth+in+Africa

Reimagining

economicgrowthinAfrica

Turningdiversityintoopportunity

Authors

MayowaKuyoro

AchaLeke

OliviaWhite

JonathanWoetzel

KartikJayaram

KendyllHicks

Editor

StephanieStrom

June2023

McKinseyGlobalInstitute

TheMcKinseyGlobalInstitutewasestablishedin1990.Ourmissionistoprovideafactbaseto

aiddecisionmakingontheeconomicandbusinessissuesmostcriticaltotheworld’scompaniesandpolicyleaders.WebenefitfromthefullrangeofMcKinsey’sregional,sectoral,andfunctionalknowledge,skills,andexpertise,buteditorialdirectionanddecisionsaresolelytheresponsibilityofMGIdirectorsandpartners.

Ourresearchiscurrentlygroupedintofivemajorthemes:

—Productivityandprosperity:Creatingandharnessingtheworld’sassetsmostproductively

—Resourcesoftheworld:Building,powering,andfeedingtheworldsustainably

—Humanpotential:Maximizingandachievingthepotentialofhumantalent

—Globalconnections:Exploringhowflowsofgoods,people,andideasshapeeconomies

—Technologiesandmarketsofthefuture:Discussingthenextbigarenasofvalueandcompetition

Weaimforindependentandfact-basedresearch.Noneofourworkiscommissionedorfundedbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution;weshareourresultspubliclyfreeofcharge;

andweareentirelyfundedbythepartnersofMcKinsey.Whileweengagemultipledistinguishedexternaladviserstocontributetoourwork,theanalysespresentedinourpublicationsareMGI’salone,andanyerrorsareourown.

YoucanfindoutmoreaboutMGIandourresearchat/mgi.

MGIDirectors

MGIPartners

SvenSmit(chair)

MichaelChui

ChrisBradley

MekalaKrishnan

KweilinEllingrud

AnuMadgavkar

MarcoPiccitto

JanMischke

OliviaWhite

JeongminSeong

JonathanWoetzel

TilmanTacke

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunityi

Contents

Ataglanceiii

Africa’sgrowthhasdownshiftedsince2010,afterapromising

openingtothemillennium2

Thereisno‘oneAfrica’—thecontinent’srecentslowdown

masksdivergenceacrosscountries8

Africaistheworld’sfastest-urbanizingregionbutdepends

tooheavilyonitsprimarycities27

Africa’slargecompanieshaveprovenresilient—andmost

haveconsiderableunmetpotentialforgrowth37

FosteringproductivegrowthinAfrica:Opportunitiesfor

Africanbusinessesandgovernments47

Acknowledgments51

Bibliography53

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunityii

Ataglance

—Despiteapromisingstarttothemillennium,Africa’slong-termeconomicgrowthhas

beenslow.Thecontinentishometotheworld’syoungestandfastest-growingpopulation,butitseconomicperformancehaslaggedbehind.Since1990,itsGDPpercapitahasgrownjust

1percentannually,comparedwith5percent

inIndiaand8percentinChina.The2000–10

decadesawanaccelerationacrossmuchofthecontinent,butgrowthretreatedin2010–19.

—ProductivityacrossallsectorsoftheAfricaneconomyislowerthanincomparableregionsoftheworld.Despiteafundamentalshiftto

services,Africacouldadd$1.4trilliontoits

economy,almostdoublingthevalueaddedby

servicestoday,wereittomatchtheproductivitygrowthofAsia’sstrongestservices.Rekindlingindustrializationandincreasingintracontinentaltradewillbecrucialcomplements,together

withboostingagriculturalproductivityto

ensurethelivelihoodsofhundredsofmillionsofAfricanfarmers.

—Yetthereisno“oneAfrica”—nearlyhalfof

itspeopleliveincountrieswhereeconomieshavegrownconsistentlyoverthepast

20years.AnnualGDPgrowthintheseprimarilymidsizeeconomiesinEastandWestAfrica

hasaveragedmorethan4percent.Therest

ofthepopulationlivesincountrieswithslowergrowth,includingthecontinent’sthreelargesteconomies,Egypt,Nigeria,andSouthAfrica.

—Africaisthefastest-urbanizingplaceon

earth,withmorethan500millionpeople

likelytoleavethecountrysidebetweennow

and2040.Mostwillmovetothecontinent’s

largestcities,increasingtheneedforbetter

infrastructureandmoreproductivejobs

toenablethesemigrantstothrive.Similar

investmentinsmallersecondcitiescouldtake

thepressureofftheirlargercousins,spreading

risingproductivityandincomesmorebroadly.

—InAfricatoday,atleast345companieshave

annualrevenuesofmorethan$1billion.

Theirgrowthandperformancearemixed,with

somefast-growingstarsandsomeshrinking

laggards.By2030,morethanhalfofthese

companiescouldincreasetheircollective

annualrevenuesof$1trillionbymorethan

$550billionbyaccessingnewmarketsand

increasingproductivity.

—Africacanreignitegrowththroughimproved

productivity,drawingoninsightsfrom

existingsuccessesacrossitsdiverse

countries,cities,andcompanies.Accelerating

digitization,developingthecontinent’stalent,

collaboratingmoreregionally,investinginurban

infrastructure,andgrowingmorebusiness

championsaresomeofthewaysAfricacan

increaseproductivitytosupportstrongand

sustainablegrowth.

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunityiii

Introduction

Africaishometotheworld’syoungestandfastest-growingpopulation,burgeoningcities,andboldinnovationsineverythingfromfintechtocleanenergy.Withitspopulationexpectedto

nearlydoubleto2.5billionby2050,thecontinenthasmyriadopportunitiestoharnessitsrichnaturalresourcesandabundanthumanpotentialtoincreaseeconomicgrowthandprosperitynotonlyinAfricabutaroundtheglobe.Asthefastest-urbanizingregionontheplanet,itisanexcitingnewmarketformanycompanies.Inanagingworld,thecontinent’syoungandfast-

growingworkforcerepresentsarichsourceoftalent:some796millionpeoplewilljointhe

workingpopulationby2050,andAfrica’sworkforcewillsoonbelargerthanChina’sorIndia’s.

Thesestrengthsandassetspresentanopportunityforthecontinenttovastlyimproveits

productivityandreversethemarkedeconomicdecelerationthatitenduredbetween2010and2019.GDPgrowthfell35percentoverthatperiod—andthentheCOVID-19pandemictookhold.Today,60percentofAfrica’spopulationlivesinpoverty,theresultofpercapitaincomegrowththathasaveragedjust1.1percentayearsince1960.

Yetthecontinent-widestatisticsobscuresuccessesinmanyofitsconstituentcountries

that,whileuneven,canserveasmodelstoestablishproductivityasthefoundationofAfrica’seconomicgrowth,ratherthanthevolatilecommoditiesthathavehistoricallyplayedthatrole.

Overthepastdecade,certaincountries,cities,andcompanieshavebeenbeaconsofinnovation,productivity,andgrowth.Theirsuccessesoffermodelsandinnovationsthatcanreinvigorate

economiesinotherAfricancountriesthathavelackedsufficientgrowthtopropelthe400millionAfricanslivinginextremepoverty,aswellasotherswhoarelessimpoverishedbutremain

vulnerable,acrosstheempowermentline.1

Geographically,AfricaisaslargeasChina,Europe,India,andtheUnitedStatescombined,andits54countriesvarydramaticallyinpopulation,incomelevel,andgovernance.Africaisalsothemosteconomicallyfragmentedregionintheworld,andthedivergentpathsofdevelopmentineachofitscountriesreflectthis.2Understandingandattendingtothatdiversityofqualitiesandoutcomesamongitsconstituentcountriesarecriticaltoanyefforttorekindleproductivityandgrowthacrossthecontinent—thereisno“oneAfrica.”

MindfulofthediversityofAfrica’seconomicchallenges,thisreporttakesagranularapproachinitsanalysisofAfrica’scountries,cities,andcompaniesfrom2000to2019.EachAfricannationcandeployitsparticularstrengthsandcapabilitiesinwaysthatpromoteproductivity-ledgrowthandimprovelivesacrossthecontinentatlarge.ReimaginingAfrica’sgrowthisachievableand,

morethanever,vitalforthewelfareoftheworld.

1TheempowermentlineisanMGIestimateofthemeansrequiredforeveryindividualtoachievesufficiencyinbasicneeds(forexample,nutrition,energy,housing,healthcare,education,andotheressentials)alongwitheconomicsecurity,enablingthemtocrossthehurdleofmeresubsistenceandbeempoweredtorealizetheirpotential.

2AchaLeke,MutsaChironga,andGeorgesDesvaux,Africa’sbusinessrevolution:Howtosucceedintheworld’snextbiggrowthmarket,HarvardBusinessReviewPress,2018.

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunity1

Africa’sgrowthhasdownshiftedsince2010,afterapromising

openingtothemillennium

Thirteenyearsago,MGIpublisheditsfirstreportonAfrica’seconomies,Lionsonthemove:TheprogressandpotentialofAfricaneconomies,atitlethatreflectedthedynamismandpowerwesawradiatingfromanewlythrivingcontinent.Thatpublication,oursubsequentperspectives,

andworkbyotherscontributedtotheworld’srisingexpectationsofAfrica’sgrowthand

economicpotential.3

However,whenitcomestoAfrica’seconomicperformance,notalldecadesarealike.Thisreportfocusesonthedecadefrom2010to2019,beforeCOVID-19swepttheworld.Itsfindingsare

drawnfromouryearlongstudythatanalyzedtheeconomicperformanceandpotentialofAfricancountries,cities,andcompanies,enrichedbyconversationswithmanyofthecontinent’sleadingthinkersandbusinessleaders.

Lookingatthisandthetwodecadesbeforethisperiod—theburstofhighgrowthatthestart

ofthecenturythatfollowedthesluggish1990s—putstheeconomicaccelerationfrom2000to2010intocontext.Overthe30-yearperiodfrom1990through2019,Africa’srealGDPgrewata

3Lionsonthemove:TheprogressandpotentialofAfricaneconomies,McKinseyGlobalInstitute,June2020;AchaLekeandSafYeboah-Amankwah,“Africa:acrucibleforcreativity,”HarvardBusinessReview,November–December2018;seeSimonLondon,“HowtowininAfrica:AninterviewwithAchaLekeandGeorgesDevaux,”McKinseyQuarterly,November2018.

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunity2

Overthepast30years,GDPpercapitaincreasedmorethan10timesinChinaandfourtimesinIndia,

whileAfrica’shasnotyetdoubled.

GDPCAGR,

ChinaIndiaAfrica

Africa

1990–2019

average:3.7%

Population

Africa

1990–2019

average:2.6%

rateof3.7percentannually,comparedwithIndia’s6.2percentandChina’s9.1percent.Giventhecontinent’srapidlyexpandingpopulation,thecontrastbetweenthesethreeregionsisevenmorestarkonapercapitabasis:GDPpercapitainAfricagrewbyonly1percentperyear,compared

with5percentinIndiaand8percentinChina(Exhibit1).

Exhibit1

Africa’srealGDPpercapitahasgrownonly1.1%annuallysince1990.1

Realgrossdomesticproductpercapita,12015$thousandCAGR1990–2019

10

8

6

4

2

0

1990

2010

2020

2000

China8.4%

1.1%

4.6%

Africa

India

%

1990–2000

2000–10

2010–19

9.8

5.6

10.2

6.7

5.1

7.2

6.4

2.5

CAGR,%

3.3

0.9

1.9

2.6

0.6

1.6

2.5

0.5

1.1

2.6

1Includes47Africancountrieswithconsistentdatafor1990–2019,excludingDjibouti,Eritrea,Liberia,Libya,SaoTomeandPrincipe,Somalia,andSouthSudan.Source:WorldBank;UNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAfairs,populationdivision;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

McKinsey&Company

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunity3

Africadidnotbenefitfromthetailwindsthatpropelledmanyemergingeconomiesintothenewmillennium.Inthedecadebetween1990and2000,Africa’sGDPgrewbyonly2.5percenta

year,orabitslowerthanitspopulationgrowthrate.UnlikeChina,India,andotherregions,thecontinentwasnotamongthefirstplacestobenefitfrombroadcorporatemovestooffshore

operationstolower-costmanufacturingbases.Gapsininfrastructureandskills,alongwithrelativelyhighhurdlestoconductingbusiness,lowlevelsofintracontinentaltrade,and

dependenceonnaturalresources,wereobstaclestoAfrica’sgrowth.

Inthefirstdecadeofthe21stcentury,however,Africaneconomiesexperiencedabroad-basedeconomicacceleration.Between2000and2010,thecontinent’srealGDPgrew5.1percentayear,roughlytwicetherateofthe1990s.Morethantwo-thirdsofthe30largesteconomiesinAfricaacceleratedtheirgrowthduringthisdecaderelativetothepreviousone.4Thecontinentattractedincreasinginvestmentandexperiencedariseinconsumerspending.Italsobenefitedfromimprovedpoliticalstability,productivity,andbusinessgrowth.AstrongglobalcommoditycyclesetoffaboominAfricanminingfrom2002to2007,asmetalandoilpricesalmosttripledandforeigninvestorslookedtoAfricatohelpmeetgrowingdemanddrivenbytherapidgrowthofemergingeconomieselsewhere.5WhilemanyAfricansremainedpoor,theproportionof

thecontinent’spopulationlivinginextremepovertyfellbytenpercentagepoints.Therewaswidespreadoptimismthat,afteralongperiodofstagnation,Africawasrising.

After2010,however,Africa’seconomicprogressslowedduetoaconfluenceoffactors

rangingfromwaningdemandforcommoditiestodeterioratingeconomicfundamentalsinthecontinent’slargesteconomies.Thedecadegotofftoarockystart,asdemandforcommoditieswaned.SteeppricedeclineshitoilexportersinparticularjustastheArabSpringin2011and

subsequentconflictsandinstitutionalinstabilityslowedeconomicactivityacrossNorthAfrica.Together,countriesaffectedbythesetrendsaccountforalmostthree-fifthsofthecontinent’scombinedGDP.

Oilpriceshockspresagedalonger-termdeclineinothercommoditiesthataffectedadditionalAfricancountriessuchasSouthAfrica.ThevalueofAfricancommodityexportsfellfrom

$256billionin2010to$147billionin2019,andthecontinent’sshareofglobalcommodity

exportsdeclinedfrom7percentto4percent.6Crudeoilandnaturalgasaccountedforthelion’sshareofthisdecline,butexportsofmorebuoyantcommoditiessuchascopperoreandcoffeealsostagnated.

Politicalinstabilityalsoincreasedacrossthecontinentandcontinues,evenincountrieswith

faster-growingeconomies.Wefoundthat30percentofAfrica’spopulationwasaffectedby

unstablepoliticaleventssuchascoupsthatbroughtinstabilityinthe2010–19decade,comparedwith4percentintheprecedingdecade.

Decliningforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)addedtoeconomicdecelerationonthecontinent.Afterquintuplingtopeakin2008,FDIflowsintoAfricadeclinedin31ofAfrica’s54countries,falling

fastestininNigeriaandSouthAfrica,thetwolargesteconomies.7

4

5

6

7

PreviousMGIresearchreportedeconomicaccelerationin27AfricancountriesbasedonWorldBankdatafortheperiod

2000to2008.Theupdateinthisreportreflectsadifferenceoftimeperiod(2000to2010)andarestatementoftheWorldBank’sGDPestimates,whichbroughtto30thenumberofAfricancountriesexperiencingacceleratedgrowthinrealGDP

from2000to2010.Duetoalackofdata,wehaveexcludedDjibouti,Eritrea,Liberia,Libya,SaoTomeandPrincipe,Somalia,andSouthSudan.

PreviousMGIresearchhasfoundthatsuchcommodity-cyclebenefitsrarelytranslateintosustainablegrowthunlessthe

gainsareinvestedforthelongterm.Formoreinformation,seeReversethecurse:Maximizingthepotentialofresource-richeconomies,McKinseyGlobalInstitute,December2013.

IncludesAfrica’sfivemostvaluablecommodityexports:crudeoil,naturalgas,gold,platinum,andironore.

In2018,SouthAfrica’spresidentannouncedaprogramtorecruit$100billioninforeigndirectinvestmentoverthefollowingfiveyears.By2022,netinflowsofFDIreached10percentofGDP,comparedwithabout1percentinyearsprior.

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunity4

ProductivityCAGR,%

10%

42%

14%

0.3

0.8

Finally,Africa’snetexternaldebt,whilelowbyglobalstandards,increasedby24percentage

pointsto57percentofGDPby2019,signalingdeterioratingmacroeconomicfundamentals.

Debt-servicingcostsdoubled,andcurrent-accountbalanceshalved,makingitharderforAfricangovernmentstoinvestingrowth.Justthreeyearslater,in2022,theregion’saveragedebt-

to-GDPratiostoodat67percent,afurtherdeteriorationtriggeredbyincreasedgovernmentspendingduringthepandemic,weakmanagementofpublicfinance,andhighinflation.

AllofthesedevelopmentscoincidedwithandcontributedtoasteepdeclineinAfrica’sannualproductivitygrowth,whichfellfrom2.2percentinthe2000–10decadeto0.8percentin

2010–19.Productivitydeclinedsharplyintheextractiveindustriesaswellasintheservices

sector,whichincreasedoutputbutnotenoughtokeepupwiththerapidgrowthofthesector’sworkforceasmillionsofpeopleleftworkinagricultureandmovedtocities(Exhibit2).

Exhibit2

EconomicgrowthincreasedinAfricafrom2000to2010buthassincefallentonear1990slevels.

AfricarealGDPgrowthdecomposition,%X%Shareofgrowth

1990–200012000–1022010–192

90%

58%

86%

2.4

2.9

2.5

Employment

CAGR,%

2.2

2.7

3.3

5.1

RealGDP

CAGR,%

1The1990–2000periodisbasedonConferenceBoarddatasetandcovers33Africancountries.

2The2000–2019periodisbasedontheMGIAfricaProductivityModelandcovers44Africancountries.

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%becauseofrounding.

Source:TheConferenceBoard,2022;MGIAfricaProductivityModel,2022

McKinsey&Company

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunity5

Box1

ClimatechangeholdsrisksforAfricaandcreatesopportunitiestoreinvigorateitseconomies

Lookingtothefuture,climatechangemayposeanewchallengetogrowthonthe

continentasAfricafacesthepotentialfor

increasingweather-relatedacuteevents

andsustainedthreatstoproductivity.Morefrequentandseveredroughtsareexpectedtoaffectagricultureandmanufacturing.Atthesametime,risingsealevelsandgreaterstormseverityputcoastalcitiesandkey

infrastructureatriskofflooding.

Today,460millionpeople,or36percentofthetotalAfricanpopulation,areexposed

toatleastoneformofclimatehazardsuchasdrought,heat,waterstress,orflooding.By2050,thisnumberwillalmostdouble

to900millionpeople,or45percentofthecontinent’spopulation,ina2°Cwarming

scenario.LargepartsofAfricafacealoss

oflaborproductivityrelatedtothepotentialforreducedeffectiveworkinghoursfrom

risingheatandhumidity.

Impactswillnotbeevenlydistributed

acrossthecontinent.Extremeprecipitation

maybecomemorefrequentacrosscentralpartsofAfrica,whilepartsofnorthernandsouthernAfricacouldexperiencedroughtineightoutofeverytenyears.Smallholderfarmersandpastoralistswillexperience

largeimpactsofclimatechangeandwill

needtoadoptnewpracticesinlivestock

management,soilenhancement,and

irrigationtoadapt.Forexample,inEast

Africa,40percentofthepopulationcouldbeexposedtoagriculturaldroughtoverthenext30years.1

Beyondrisingphysicalrisks,globaleffortstodecarbonizecouldaffectAfrica.The

continentdependsoncommodityexports,includingfossilfuelsandminerals,for

16percentofitsGDP.Someportionofthisproductionwillbethreatenediftheworld

useslessfossilfuelsandrampsupdemandforsourcesofenergythatproducelower

emissions.UnderMcKinsey’s“current

trajectory”energytransitionscenario,

globaloildemandcouldpeakby2027and

thendecline,andglobalgasdemandcouldpeakby2040.

Ifleadingcountriesaccelerateeffortsto

achievetheirnet-zerocommitments,the

transitioncouldbeevenfaster.Undersuch

an“achievedcommitments”scenario,

globaloildemandcouldpeakassoon

as2024,whileglobalgasdemandcould

peakaround2030.2Additionally,mining

inAfricaemitsmoregreenhousegasesonaveragethanelsewhereintheworld,inpartduetorelianceoncoal-generatedenergy

andemissions-intensiveunderground

miningprocesses.Companiesmayhave

totakeboldactionstoadoptrenewables.Incombination,thesetwoeffects—lowerdemandforfossilfuelsandlossofmarketsharetolower-emissionproducers—couldresultin$150billionoflostcommodity

revenueannuallyonthecontinent.3

Thecontinent’soverallGDPgrowthslowedto3.3percentayearfrom2010to2019,closer

tothelevelinthe1990s.Populationgrowthoutstrippedpovertyreduction,andtheabsolute

numberofAfricanslivinginpovertyincreasedby30million.Morerecently,COVID-19struck

afurtherblow:thecontinent’sGDPcontractedby2.1percentagepointsin2020.Sincethe

startof2020,thenumberofpeoplelivingwithacutefoodinsecurityhasmorethandoubledto

roughly200million.8Whileeconomicgrowthhasregainedsomemomentumasthepandemic

haswaned,risingenergyandfoodpricescoupledwithastrongerdollararetaxingconsumers

andpresentingchallengesforAfricangovernments.Theseincludeincreasedcivilunrestand

risinginsecuritylevelsaswellasafundingsqueezethatthemajorityofAfricancountriesare

currentlyexperiencing.9Atthesametime,thecontinentmustgrapplewiththelonger-termand

morepermanentimpactsofclimatechange(seeBox1,“ClimatechangeholdsrisksforAfricaandcreatesopportunitiestoreinvigorateitseconomies”).

8Globalreportonfoodcrises:Acutefoodinsecurityhitsnewhighs,UnitedNationsFoodandAgricultureOrganization,April2022.

9Regionaleconomicoutlook,sub-SaharanAfrica:Thebigfundingsqueeze,InternationalMonetaryFund,April2023.

1Formoreinformation,seeGreenAfrica:Agrowthandresilienceagendaforthecontinent,McKinsey&Company,October2021.

2Formoreinformation,see“ThefutureofAfricanoilandgas:Positioningfortheenergytransition,”McKinsey&Company,June2022.

3SeeGreenAfrica,October2021.

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunity6

Box1(continued)

Atthesametime,thenet-zerotransition

alsopresentsopportunitiesforAfrica

tobenefit.Ouranalysisidentifiedeight

manufacturingopportunitiesthattogethercouldgenerateupto$2billioninrevenueayearintotalandcreate700,000new

jobsby2030.Thesebusinessesinclude

assemblyofoff-gridandmicrogridsolar

systemsandelectrictwo-wheelers,aswellaspotentialandnascentnext-generationopportunitiessuchaselectricvehicle

chargingstationsandproductionofcross-laminatedtimber.4

Africaalsohasthepotentialtobeasupplierofgreenhydrogenaswellasaproviderof

carboncreditsthatbyoneestimatecould

generateover$100billionayearby2050.5Andthecontinentcanbeamuchgreater

sourceofmaterialsneededtosupporttheworld’stransitiontoalow-carboneconomy.Forexample,weestimatethatAfricahas

93percentofglobalplatinumreserves,

nearlyhalfofglobalcobaltandmanganesereserves,athirdofaluminumreserves,

and11percentofcopperandlithium

reserves—allcommoditiesneededinthe

manufactureofgreentechnologiessuch

aselectricvehiclesandwind-andsolar-

poweredinfrastructure.6

Themagnitudeoftheseopportunities

isunclearasmanyuncertaintiesexist,

notleastthepaceoftheglobalnet-

zerotransitionandwhatshareofthe

opportunitiesthecontinentcancapture.

Makingthemostoftheseopportunitiesfor

Africawillrequireconcertedeffortstogrow

newbusinesses,securecapital,andbuild

technicalknow-how.

4Formoreinformation,seeLyesBouchene,KartikJayaram,AdamKendall,andKenSomers,“Africa’sgreenmanufacturingcrossroads:Choicesforalow-carbonindustrialfuture,”McKinsey&Company,September2021.

5Africa’sgreenenergyrevolution:Hydrogen’sroleinunlockingAfrica’suntappedrenewables,Masdar,November2022;andRoadmapreport:HarnessingcarbonmarketsforAfrica,AfricaCarbonMarketsInitiative,November2022.

6MineSpans,McKinsey&Company,accessedMarch2023.

Whileeconomicgrowthhas

regainedsomemomentumas

thepandemichaswaned,risingenergyandfoodpricescoupledwithastrongerdollararetaxingconsumersandpresenting

challengesforAfricangovernments.

McKinseyGlobalInstitute|ReimaginingeconomicgrowthinAfrica:Turningdiversityintoopportunity7

Thereisno‘oneAfrica’—the

continent’srecentslowdownmasksdivergenceacrosscountries

Behindtheaggregatefiguresandcontinent-levelchallenges,Africancountrieshaveseena

significantdivergence:acrossalarge,fragmentedcontinentwithlowlevelsofintraregionaltrade,thereisnosuchthingasasingleAfricaneconomy.Since2010,someAfricancountrieshave

sustainedsolid,evenaccelerating,growth,whileothershaveexperiencedsharpdeclines.

NearlyhalfofAfrica’speopleliveincountrieswhereannualGDPgrowthbetween2010and2019exceeded4.2percent,thecontinent’saveragegrowthratesince2000.Thesecountrieswere

largelymidsizeeconomiesandtogetheraccountedforjustoveraquarteroftotalAfricanGDPin2019.TheirhigherannualGDPgrowthwasaccompaniedbyahigher-th