中國科技行業(yè)戰(zhàn)略：Figure+01創(chuàng)AI人形機器人新里程碑星艦試飛進步顯著商業(yè)航天未來可期

中國科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20241研究報告ResearchReport18Mar20248中國科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologFigure01創(chuàng)AI人形機器人新里程碑，星艦試飛進步顯著商業(yè)航天未來可期Figure01SetsaNewMilestoneinAIHumanoidRobots;StarshipFlightTestShowsSignificantProgress,PromisingFutureforCommercialSpaceTravel姚書橋BarneyYaobarney.sq.yao@王沈昱OscarWang,CFAsy.wang@(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)事件3月14日，OpenAI和初創(chuàng)公司Figure共同發(fā)布Figure01人形機器人視頻，引發(fā)廣泛關注，展示了機器人在廚房中與高級AI工程師CoreyLynch進行互動，完成了包括識別蘋果、碗碟和杯子、按指令收集垃圾等任務。Figure01利用OpenAI最新的視覺語言模型技術，融合了生成式AI和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡學習原理，能夠進行多任務處理、識別環(huán)境并實時與用戶交流，標志著通用任務AI人形機器人技術的重要進展。這一成就僅在OpenAI與Figure宣布合作13天后實現(xiàn)。同日，SpaceX在星艦基地成功發(fā)射“星艦”火箭，并達到太空，完成了其第三次關鍵試飛。這次試飛受到了廣泛歡呼和美國宇航局的祝賀。雖然結(jié)果并未完全達到預期，相較前兩次試射，這次的性能提升顯著，實現(xiàn)了更遠的飛行距離和更長的飛行時間，并完成了更多測試任務，使得SpaceX向其送人上月球和火星的長期目標邁進了一步。點評多任務處理+人機實時交互，F(xiàn)igure01展現(xiàn)未來AI人形機器人新里程碑。Figure01是由OpenAI和初創(chuàng)公司Figure共同開發(fā)的人形機器人，高5英尺6英寸，重60kg，能承重20kg，續(xù)航5小時，前進速度達1.2m/秒。這款機器人展現(xiàn)出了與以往工業(yè)機器人不同的四大特點：1）具備強大的語義理解能力，能實時與人溝通，無“機械化延時”。2）擁有端到端的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡學習能力，能進行思考、推理，并能從抽象詞匯推導具體物品。3）能進行情感互動和反問交互，表現(xiàn)出“類人性”。4）具備通用環(huán)境下的多任務處理能力，能通過觀察學習糾正錯誤，識別周圍環(huán)境物體，并進行多任務處理。這些能力背后是OpenAI最新視覺語言模型與Figure神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡系統(tǒng)的結(jié)合，使Figure01能通過簡單觀察學習新技能，使用"學習型低級雙臂操作"進行精準控制，以及通過強化學習不斷優(yōu)化任務執(zhí)行效率。成立兩年估值26億美元，獲科技巨頭們重金投資。Figure成立于2022年，主要由前谷歌工程師組成，旨在開發(fā)能解放人類從危險和繁重工作的高性能人形機器人。面對人形機器人的巨大市場前景，微軟、英偉達、OpenAI等行業(yè)巨頭紛紛投資，F(xiàn)igure在B輪融資中籌集了6.75億美元，估值已飆升至26億美元。其中，亞馬遜前CEO貝索斯、微軟和英偉達等均有重要投資。團隊成員來自波士頓動力、特斯拉等領先企業(yè)，擁有豐富的AI和仿人機器人研發(fā)經(jīng)驗。Figure已與寶馬簽訂首個商業(yè)協(xié)議，將AI和機器人技術融入汽車生產(chǎn)線，并落戶于寶馬的工廠，預示人形機器人在工業(yè)應用的新時代即將到來。公司未來計劃與OpenAI聯(lián)手，推進人形機器人技術革新，將多模態(tài)大模型的能力擴展到機器人的感知、推理和交互上，展現(xiàn)行業(yè)巨大的發(fā)展?jié)摿陀熬??！靶桥灐痹囷w進步顯著，載人太空旅行任重道遠。SpaceX的巨型火箭“星艦”從得州博卡奇卡星際基地成功發(fā)射，進行了第三次試飛，盡管前兩次均未成功。這次試飛仍被定性為“測試”，旨在完成包括兩級火箭燃燒、有效載荷艙門開關、燃料轉(zhuǎn)移等多項雄心勃勃的目標。盡管超重型火箭在返回途中丟失，星艦的第二級成功進入太空，完成了部分測試任務，但在重返大氣層時與地面失去聯(lián)系，推測未能成功著陸。SpaceX強調(diào)這些試飛旨在收集數(shù)據(jù)，優(yōu)化設計，此次試飛雖然沒有實現(xiàn)所有目標，但比前兩次有所進步，為將來的任務奠定了基礎。公司重申其多行星生命愿景，繼續(xù)向前推進。我們認為，星艦項目旨在開發(fā)重復使用火箭，降低成本，實現(xiàn)多行星生存愿景。雖然試飛未全符預期，但也提供了寶貴的改進數(shù)據(jù)。SpaceX將繼續(xù)優(yōu)化，積累無人飛行經(jīng)驗，確保未來載人任務安全。風險AI賦能機器人研發(fā)進度不及預期，市場競爭加劇風險，火箭研發(fā)和試射進度不及預期，宏觀經(jīng)濟下行。18Mar20242圖3FigureB輪融資6.75億美元，估值達26億美元圖5SpaceX起飛瞬間圖6星艦發(fā)射系統(tǒng)中國科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20243圖7星艦周圍的等離子體圖8星艦即將濺落印度洋中國科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20244APPENDIX1EventsOnMarch14,OpenAIandthestartupFigurejointlyreleasedavideoofthehumanoidrobotFigure01,sparkingwidespreadattention.ThevideoshowcasedinteractionsbetweentherobotandseniorAIengineerCoreyLynchinakitchen,completingtaskssuchasidentifyingapples,bowls,andcups,andcollectingtrashuponinstruction.UtilizingOpenAI'slatestvision-languagemodeltechnology,Figure01integratesgenerativeAIandneuralnetworklearningprinciples,enablingmulti-taskprocessing,environmentalrecognition,andreal-timecommunicationwithusers.Thismarksasignificantadvancementingeneral-purposeAIhumanoidrobottechnology,achievedjust13daysafterOpenAIandFigureannouncedtheircollaboration.Onthesameday,SpaceXsuccessfullylaunchedtheStarshiprocketfromStarbase,reachingspaceandcompletingitsthirdcriticalflighttest.ThisflightwasmetwithwidespreadacclaimandcongratulationsfromNASA.Althoughtheresultsdidnotfullymeetexpectations,comparedtotheprevioustwolaunches,thisflightdemonstratedsignificantimprovementsinperformance,achievinggreaterflightdistanceandlongerflightduration,andcompletingmoretestobjectives.ThisbringsSpaceXonestepclosertoitslong-termgoalsofmannedlunarandMarsmissions.CommentsWithmulti-taskprocessingandreal-timehuman-machineinteraction,Figure01representsanewmilestoneforfutureAIhumanoidrobots.DevelopedjointlybyOpenAIandthestartupFigure,this5-foot-6-inchtall,60kgrobotcancarryaloadof20kg,hasa5-hourbatterylife,andcanmoveataspeedof1.2m/s.Therobotdisplaysfourdistinctivefeaturesunlikepreviousindustrialrobots:1)Itpossessesstrongsemanticunderstandingcapabilities,enablingreal-timecommunicationwithhumanswithout"mechanicaldelays."2)Ithasend-to-endneuralnetworklearningabilities,capableofthinking,reasoning,anddeducingspecificitemsfromabstractterms.3)Itcanengageinemotionalinteractionsandaskcounter-questions,showing"human-like"traits.4)Itiscapableofmulti-taskhandlinginageneralenvironment,learningfromobservationstocorrectmistakes,recognizingsurroundingobjects,andmanagingmultipletaskssimultaneously.ThesecapabilitiesareunderpinnedbytheintegrationofOpenAI'slatestvision-languagemodelandFigure'sneuralnetworksystem,enablingFigure01tolearnnewskillsthroughsimpleobservation,performprecisecontrolwith"learning-basedlow-leveldual-armmanipulation,"andcontinuouslyoptimizetaskexecutionefficiencythroughreinforcementlearning.ValuedatUS$2.6billionjusttwoyearsafteritsestablishment,Figurehasattractedsubstantialinvestmentfromtechgiants.Foundedin2022byformerGoogleengineers,Figureaimstodevelophigh-performancehumanoidrobotscapableoffreeinghumansfromdangerousandlaborioustasks.Facingthehugemarketprospectsofhumanoidrobots,industrygiantslikeMicrosoft,Nvidia,andOpenAIhavemadeinvestments,withFigureraisingUS$675millioninitsSeriesBfundinground,valuingthecompanyatUS$2.6billion.ImportantinvestmentshavebeenmadebyformerAmazonCEOJeffBezos,Microsoft,andNvidia,amongothers.Theteam,withmembersfromleadingcompanieslikeBostonDynamicsandTesla,possessesextensiveexperienceinAIandhumanoidrobotR&D.FigurehassigneditsfirstcommercialagreementwithBMWtointegrateAIandrobotictechnologyintocarproductionlines,markinganewerafortheindustrialapplicationofhumanoidrobots.ThecompanyplanstocollaboratewithOpenAItoadvancehumanoidrobottechnologyinnovation,extendingmultimodallargemodelcapabilitiestorobotperception,reasoning,andinteraction,demonstratingtheindustry'svastdevelopmentpotentialandprofitprospects.TheStarshipflighttestshowssignificantprogress,butthejourneytowardsmannedspacetravelisstilllong.SpaceX'sStarshiprocketsuccessfullylaunchedfromtheBocaChicaStarbaseinTexas,completingitsthirdflighttest,thoughtheprevioustwowereunsuccessful.Classifiedasa"test,"thisflightaimedtoachieveambitiousgoals,includingtwo-stagerocketcombustion,payloadbaydooroperation,andfueltransfer.Althoughthesuperheavyrocketwaslostonitsreturnjourney,Starship'ssecondstagesuccessfullyenteredspaceandcompletedsometestobjectives.However,itlostcontactwiththegrounduponre-enteringtheatmosphere,andit'spresumeditdidnotlandsuccessfully.SpaceXemphasizesthatthesetestflightsareintendedtocollectdataandoptimizedesign.Althoughnotallobjectiveswereachieved,progresswasmadecomparedtothepreviousflights,layingthegroundworkforfuturemissions.Thecompanyreiteratesitsvisionformultiplanetarylife,continuingtomoveforward.WebelievetheStarshipprojectaimstodevelopreusablerockets,reducecosts,andrealizethevisionofmultiplanetarysurvival.Whilethetestflightdidnotfullymeetexpectations,itprovidedvaluabledataforimprovement.SpaceXwillcontinuetooptimize,18Mar20245accumulateunmannedflightexperience,andensurethesafetyoffuturemannedmissions.AI-enabledrobotdevelopmentprogressisnotexpected;marketcompetitionintensifies;rocketdevelopmentandflighttestprogressarenotexpected;economicdownturn.6ii下下 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