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GlobalMacroResearch
TOPofMIND
ISSUE131|September3,2024|6:40PMEDT
’’’’’’V’’’’’
’’’’
ISTHEFEDBEHINDTHECURVE?
JustasUSin?ationconcernsmovedintotherearview,thelabormarketstartedsendingworryingsignals,withtheJulyjobsreporttriggeringtheSahmrule,raisingthequestionofwhethertheFedisbehindthecurveincuttingratesandtheriskofrecession.FormerregionalFedPresidentsBillDudleyandRobKaplan,SahmrulecreatorClaudiaSahm,andGSGIR’sDavidMericlehavevaryinglevelsofconcernaboutthelabormarket,withDudleymostworriedabouttheriskofanegativefeedbackloopbetweenjoblossesandreducedspendingthatwouldleadtorecession,Sahmsomewhatconcerned,andKaplanandMericlelessworried.TheyalsogenerallydisagreeonwhethertheFedhaswaitedtoolongtocut,withMericle
andKaplanarguingthattheFedisnotmeaningfullybehindthecurve,SahmmoreconcernedthattheFedhasyettoact,andDudleyworriedthattheFedmayalreadybetoolatetoavertrecession.GSstrategistsarguethatmarketsarevulnerabletosharpcorrectionsshouldrecessionoccur,butthatriskyassetswouldhaveroomtorunifitdoesn’t.
“
WHAT’SINSIDE
INTERVIEWSWITH:
BillDudley,FormerPresidentoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYork
RobKaplan,FormerPresidentoftheFederalReserveBankofDallas,ViceChairmanatGoldmanSachs
ClaudiaSahm,ChiefEconomistatNewCenturyAdvisors,FormerSectionChiefattheFederalReserveBoardofGovernors
DavidMericle,ChiefUSEconomistatGoldmanSachs
USEQUITIES:FURTHERROOMTORISE
BenSnider,GSUSPortfolioStrategyResearch
CONSUMERDEBT:HEALTHYONNET
Lot?KarouiandVinayViswanathan,GSCreditStrategyResearch
AROUNDUPOFTHEUSCONSUMER
GSEquityResearch
MARKETS:NOTPRICINGRECESSION
VickieChang,GSMarketsResearch
Weareclearlynotseeingalayoffspiral,thefast-movingviciouscircleofjobandincomelossleadingtoreducedspendingandfurtherlayoffsthatwouldbehardforpolicymakerstocounteract.
-DavidMericle
JustastheFedwasbehindthecurveinraisinginterestratesinthiscycle,theFedisnowbehindthecurvein
_
loweringratestomoveclosertoaneutralpolicystance.
-BillDudley
EveniftheSahmruleiscurrentlyoverstatingthe
weakeninginlabordemand,itisstilltellingussomethingusefulaboutthehealthoftheUSlabormarket.
-ClaudiaSahm
-RobK
IfIwerestillinmyseatattheFed,Iwoulddeterminefromariskmanagementperspectivethatit’stimetobegincuttingrates.
EXCHANGERATES:ARECESSIONHEDGE
TeresaAlves,GSMarketsResearch
...ANDMORE
AllisonNathan|allison.nathan@
JennyGrimberg|jenny.grimberg@AshleyRhodes|ashley.rhodes@
Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.
TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.
??????
???
??
400
Authorized(BasedonCBOestimates)
Unauthorized(Estimatebasedoncourtcases)Total
Total,UnderHarris
300
Total,UnderTrumpwithDividedGovernmentTotal,UnderTrumpwithRepublicanSweep
200
100
0
201820192020202120222023
GS
Forecast
20242025
100
4.8
80
60
3.6
40
20
2.4
0
-20
-40
1.2
-60
-80
0
-100
Pandemic-inducedspending:remainselevated
Shifttoonlinegames(keirin,horsebetting,games),takeout(fastfood),outdoors(golf,etc.)
Occasionalspending:recoveredtonormallevels
Relativelyinfrequentandofteninvolves
long-distancetravel(concerts,themeparks),long-distancetransportation(domesticairtravel,carrental),hotels
Everydayservicesspending:stagnant
Somediningout,relativelyfrequent
leisureservices(fitnessclubs,pachinko),short-distancetransportation(buses,taxi)
Jan-20Oct-20Jul-21Apr-22Jan-23Oct-23Jul-24
_
??
?
?
??
?
6
Core
Services
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-17Mar-18May-19Jul-20Sep-21Nov-22Jan-24Mar-25
3.02.52.0 1.5 1.00.50.0-0.5-1.0
-1.5
201920202021202220232024*Aug-Dec2024estimatesassumethesamepaceofcreditgrowthasinJuly.
GSe*
TopofMind
Issue131
hEl
Isthe
Fedbehindthecurve?
JustasseveralbenigndataprintspushedUSinflationconcernsintotherearview,theUSlabormarketstartedsendingworryingsignals,withtheJulyemploymentreportshowingafurtherriseintheunemploymentrateto4.3%.Thisincreasetriggeredthe
Sahmrule,awidely-followedrecessionindicatorthathas
accuratelysignaledeveryUSrecessionsince1970.AndthishascomealongsidegrowingconcernsaboutthehealthoftheUS
consumerondownbeatcommentaryfromseveralconsumer-
facingcompaniesaswellasincreasedsignsofweaknessinthemanufacturingsector.Amidthismoreworryingmacro
backdrop,theFedhaskeptratesonholdasithassoughtto
gainmoreconfidencethatinflationisreturningtotargetbeforestartingratecuts.WhileChairPowellclearlysignaledadovishpivotatJacksonHole,statingthat“thetimehascomefor
policytoadjust”,whethertheFedhaswaitedtoolongtoact—andwhatthatmeansforUSrecessionrisk—isTopofMind.
WefirstspeakwithClaudiaSahm,thecreatoroftheSahmrule,BillDudleyandRobKaplan,formerPresidentsoftheNewYorkandDallasFeds,respectively,andDavidMericle,GSChiefUSEconomist,abouthowconcerningtherecenttriggeringofthe
Sahmruleis.Sahmexplainsthattherulereliesonapowerful
negativefeedbackloopinwhichjoblossescauselaid-off
workerstoreducetheirspending,leadingtofurtherjoblossesand,ultimately,recession.ButSahmarguesthatanincreaseinlaborsupply—ratherthanjustlowerdemandforworkers—
drovetherecentriseintheunemploymentrate,whichreducestheriskofthenegativefeedbacklooptakinghold.However,
shecautionsagainstcomplacency,arguingthathiresandquitsrates—twokeyindicatorsoflabormarketstrength—aresendingdisconcertingsignalsaboutthehealthoftheUSlabormarket.
Dudleygoesastepfurther,pointingoutthattheSahmrulehascorrectlyindicatedrecessioneveninperiodsofstronglabor
supplygrowth,meaningthattheriskofthenegativefeedbackloopshouldnotbediscounted.Andhearguesthatrelatively
smallincreasesinunemployment,whetherdrivenbyrising
laborsupplyorjoblosses,havehistoricallybeenfollowedby
_
materialincreases,whichwouldhitlow-andmoderate-incomehouseholds—thatarealreadyundersignificantstrainfromhighpricesandinterestrates—particularlyhard.
KaplanandMericle,however,arelessconcerned.WhileKaplanhasgrownmarginallymoreworriedaboutthelabormarketamidrecentsignsofsoftening,hetooquestionstherelevancyoftheSahmruleinthecurrentcycle.Andhesayshiswide-ranging
discussionswithcompaniessuggestthatthelabormarketisnot“fallingoutofbed”,whichispartlywhytheUSconsumer
remainsindecentshapeoverallevenaslower-incomehouseholdsareundoubtedlystruggling.
Mericle,forhispart,isnotconvincedthat“wehavea
meaningfullabormarketproblem”asheseesnoevidenceofanegativefeedbackloopbetweenjoblossesandreduced
spendingthatcouldpushtheeconomyintorecession,with
strongrealincomegrowthdrivenbyastill-healthylabormarketandrecord-stronghouseholdbalancesheetslikelytocontinuetosupporttheUSconsumer.Indeed,whileGSseniorcredit
strategistsLotfiKarouiandVinayViswanathannotepocketsof
stressforlower-incomeconsumers,consistentwiththe
cautionarymessageGSequityanalystsheardfromconsumer-facingcompaniesinQ2earningscommentary(seepgs.20-21),Mericle,Karoui,andViswanathanarguethattheUSconsumerinaggregateisreasonablyhealthyandshouldremainsoin
comingmonths.
Despitetheirvaryinglevelsofconcernaboutthelabormarket,ourintervieweesagree:thecurrentstanceofmonetarypolicyistoorestrictive.Mericlesaysthatwiththelabormarkethaving
rebalancedandinflationexpectationshavingreturnedtotarget-compatiblelevelsbytheendoflastyear,theinflationproblemhasessentiallybeensolvedforsometimenow.AndKaplan
believesthat,giventhesubstantialprogressondisinflationandsofteninglabormarket,“it’stimetobegincuttingrates”,
thoughhearguesthattheFedshouldremainvigilantinitsinflationfight.ButtheybotharguethattheFedisnot
meaningfullybehindthecurve,andseeonly20%oddsofrecessionoverthenextyear.
ButSahmissomewhatmoreconcernedthattheFedhasyettoactgiventheworryingdirectionoftravelinthelabormarket,
whichleadshertoascribethehighestrecessionoddsthatshehasinthiscycle—around25%.Bychoosingtowaituntilthe
disinflationtrendwasveryclearinthedata,SahmbelievesthattheFedmustnowactquicklyanddecisivelytoavoid
recession—which,ifitdoesoccur,shesayswouldbetheresultofa“huge,unforcedpolicyerror.”Butshethinksthat
sequential25bpcutsstartingattheSeptemberFOMCmeetingwouldprobablysufficetoavoidthisnegativeoutcome.
Dudley,however,believesthattheFedhasfallenfurtherbehindthecurveandworriesthatevenmoreaggressiveFedaction
maynotbeenoughatthispointtostaveoffrecession.He
notesthatthelongandvariablelagsofmonetarypolicymeanthatithashistoricallyprovenveryhardfortheFedtointervene“quicklyenoughonsignsofeconomicweaknesstopreventafull-fledgeddownturn.”So,Dudleysees50-60%oddsofaUSrecessionoverthenextyear.
Giventheuncertaintyaroundrecessionriskandwhetherthe
Fedcandoenoughatthispointtostaveitoff,wethendigintowhat’spricedintoassetstoday.GSseniormarketstrategist
VickieChangandseniorUSequitystrategistBenSniderargue
thatmarketsarenotcurrentlypricedforrecessionary
outcomes,leavingriskyassetsvulnerabletosharpcorrectionsintheeventofrecession,whichGSmarketstrategistTeresaAlvesfindscouldbehedgedagainstthroughlongpositionsintheYenandSwissFrancaswellasshortpositionsinthe
MexicanPeso,AustralianDollar,andBritishPound.However,withGSeconomistsarguingthatcontinuedUSeconomic
expansionremainsfarmorelikelythanrecession,ChangandSniderseeroomtorunforriskyassetsahead.
AllisonNathan,Editor
Email:allison.nathan@
Tel:212-357-7504
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch3
Issue131
TopofMind
hEl
InterviewwithDavidMericle
DavidMericleisChiefUSEconomistatGoldmanSachs.Below,hearguesthattheFedis
unlikelymeaningfullybehindthecurve,asrecentlabormarketdevelopmentsdon’tappearasconcerningaswhentheunemploymentrateroseinthepastandtheUSconsumeroutlookremainsreasonablyhealthy.
AllisonNathan:ChairPowellclearlystatedatJacksonHolethatthe
balanceofriskshasshiftedtothe
employmentsideoftheFed’s
mandate,implyinganimminent
starttoratecuts.ButistheFed
neverthelessbehindthecurve,
increasingtheriskofUSrecession?
DavidMericle:SomeFOMC
participantswereprobablytooconcernedaboutinflationfortoolong,andthatheldtheFOMCbackabit.Ourviewhasbeen
thatthelabormarkethadalreadyrebalancedandinflation
expectationshadreturnedtotarget-compatiblelevelsbythe
endoflastyear,soatthatpointtheproblemwasessentially
over,andthatmostoftheremainingovershootof2%isjust
laggedcatch-upinflationthatisfadingnaturally.Soyes,theFedcouldhavecutonemeetingearlier.ButIdon’tthinkitmattersmuch.I’mnotyetconvincedthatwehaveameaningfullabor
marketproblem,andifwedohaveaproblem,itisatmosta
moderateone.Anydelayindeliveringthefirstratecutcan
easilybemadeupifthelabormarketweakensfurther,and
marketshavealreadypricedasufficientlyaggressivecutting
cycletodeliverthesameeasinginfinancialconditionsthattheFOMCwouldhavebystartingabitearlier.
_
Yes,theFedcouldhavecutonemeetingearlier.ButIdon’tthinkitmattersmuch.I’mnotyetconvincedthatwehaveameaningfullabormarketproblem.”
AllisonNathan:Butthemuchweaker-than-expectedJulyemploymentreporttriggeredtheSahmrule,whichhas
accuratelyindicatedeveryUSrecessionsince1970.Whydon’tyoubelievethattobethecasethistimearound?
DavidMericle:I’mlessworriedabouttheriseinthe
unemploymentratethanthepatterninUShistorymight
suggest.First,thepatternhasbeenlessreliableinotherG10
economies.Second,weareclearlynotseeingalayoffspiral,
thefast-movingviciouscircleofjobandincomelossleadingtoreducedspendingandfurtherlayoffsthatwouldbehardfor
policymakerstocounteract.Thatdoesn’tprovethatwedon’t
haveaproblem—evenwithoutlayoffs,wecouldhaveamore
moderateandslow-movingproblemwherelabordemandisa
bittooweaktoabsorbthegrowthinlaborsupplyandthe
unemploymentratekeepscrawlinghigher.Butthatleadstothethirdpoint:labordemandlooksfine.Trendjobgrowthis
runningat~160k/month,jobopeningsarestillatouchhigherthanpre-pandemiclevels,andindeeditwouldbeoddiflabor
demandweresuddenlyweakeningexcessivelybecauseGDPisgrowingrobustly.So,labordemandappearstobeattheright
levelforanormalenvironment;itjustwasn’tquitestrong
enoughtoabsorbtheadditionallaborsupplyfromthepeakoftheimmigrationsurge.Andnewimmigrants—especiallythosewithoutworkpermits—haveahardertimefindingjobsatfirst.Butnowthattheimmigrationboosttolaborsupplyisslowing,theunemploymentrateshouldholdroughlysteady.
AllisonNathan:EvenifthereisreasontobelievethattheSahmrulemaynotapplyinthiscycle,haven’tlabor
marketindicatorsweakenedafairbitatthispoint?
DavidMericle:Yes,andI’dsaythey’veweakenedatouch
morethannecessary.2022featuredperhapsthetightest
peacetimelabormarketinUShistory,anditmadesenseas
partoftheinflationfighttotrytoreverttopre-Covidconditions,whenthelabormarketwasverystrongbutdidnotpresentaninflationproblem.Themessagefromarangeoflabormarket
measures—theunemploymentrate,ourjobs-workersgap,thequitsrate,andsurveymeasures—isthatoverthelastcoupleofmonths,we’veundershotthatpre-pandemicbalancealittle.
Thisisabitnitpicky,butIdon’tthinkthatwasnecessaryto
solvetheinflationproblem,andChairPowellhintedatJacksonHolethathedoesn’teither.
Noneofthisisamajorproblemyet,butweshouldn’tletitgo
anyfurther.Again,mybestguessisthatwithlabordemandstillhealthyandtheimmigrationboosttolaborsupplygrowth
slowing,thelabormarketwon’tsoftenmateriallyfurther.But
uncertaintyishighandaplausibleriskexiststhatlabordemandwillproveabittooweak.Ifevidencebuildsinthatdirection,theFOMCshoulderronthesideofcautionandreactforcefully,
andPowell’sJacksonHolespeechsuggeststhatitwill.
AllisonNathan:ManyinvestorsalsoseemworriedabouttheconsumergivennegativestatementsfromconsumercompaniesduringQ2earnings.Doesn’tthatworryyou?
DavidMericle:Afterlabormarketconcerns,thebiggestdriverofrenewedrecessionfearsamongclientshasbeenasense
thatthebottom-upmessagefromearningsseasonpresentedamorenegativepictureofconsumerspendingthanofficialdatahadyetrevealed.I’mskeptical.Isuspectthemarketnarrative
justoverweightedmorenegativeanecdotes,asaggregate
companyrevenuessuggestdecelerationbutnotdeclinetoa
still-respectable~2.5%realgrowthpace.Inanycase,Iputalotmoreweightontheofficialdata;consumerspendinggrewata2.9%rateinQ2androsestronglyagaininJuly.So,consumerfearslookmisplaced,andwestillseetheconsumeroutlookashealthyandstraightforward—strongrealincomegrowthdrivenbyahealthylabormarketplusrecord-stronghouseholdbalancesheetsshouldgeneratesolidconsumptiongrowth.
GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch4
TopofMind
hEl
AllisonNathan:Butdon’tconsumerbalancesheetslookincreasinglystressed?Andwon’ttheweakeninginlabormarketindicatorsmakethatworse?
DavidMericle:Muchoftheincreaseindelinquencyand
defaultratesinconsumerbalancesheetsreflectedtwothings.First,normalizationfromunusuallylowratesafewyearsago
whenspecialpandemicfiscaltransfersmadeiteasierfor
peopletopaytheirbills.Andsecond,inadvertentlyriskylendingbybanksthatdidn’trealizecreditscoreshadbeentemporarilyinflatedbythatstimulus-aidedperiodoflowdelinquencies.
Higherinterestratesonconsumerdebtanddifficultiessome
familiesfacedinadjustingtheirspendingbackinlinewiththeirincomeafterthefiscaltransfersendedalsolikelycausedsomedistress.Butthekeypointisthattheriseinthedelinquency
rateisnotmainlyasignofweakhouseholdfinances,andthe
negativeimpactonaggregateconsumerspendingofsome
householdshittingcreditconstraintsislikelymodestcomparedtothepositiveimpactofrisingaggregatehouseholdwealth.
Ialsowouldn’tinterpretthesofterlabormarketsignalsas
indicatingdownsideforconsumerspending.Realwagesandpayrollshavegrownatagoodpace.Becausetheriseintheunemploymentratehasbeendrivennotbylayoffsbutbyajumpinlaborsupply,theimplicationforspendingisnotthatsomeworkersnowhavelessincometospend,whichwouldpushconsumptiongrowthbelowtrend,butratherthatwe
missedanopportunitytoputeveryonetoworkandgrowconsumptionevenfurtherabovetrendthanwedid.
AllisonNathan:So,what’slikelynextforFedpolicy?
DavidMericle:Thesignsofsoftnessinthelabormarketsofarseemenoughtoaccelerateeasingfromtheoriginalplanof
quarterlytoconsecutive25bpcuts,butnotyetto50bpcuts.So,weexpect25bpcutsinSeptember,November,and
December.RecentFOMCcommentaryhasbeenconsistent
withourforecastofa25bpcut.Theyseemtobethinkingin
_
linewithhistoricalprecedent,wheretheFedhastendedtoonlytakemoredrasticactionsuchasintermeetingorlargercutsin
themoreurgentcontextofanobviouscrisisoratleastalayoffspiral.ButiftheAugustjobsreportisn’tbetterthantheJuly
report,thentheFOMCwouldlikelydelivera50bpcutinstead.
AllisonNathan:WhatareyouexpectingfortheAugustjobsreport,andhowmightyourexpectationsforthe
SeptemberFOMCchangeifitisweakerthanexpected?
DavidMericle:Weestimatethattheunderlyingtrendrateofjobgrowthiscloserto160k/monththanthe114kwegotin
July,andweexpectatleastsomeofthejumpintemporary
layoffsinJulytoreverseinAugust.So,wesuspecttheAugustreportwilllookbetterthantheJulyreport,withpayrollsat
~155kandtheunemploymentrateroundingto4.2%.Inthatcase,I’mconfidentwe’dgeta25bpratecut.
Butaworsereportiscertainlypossible,sothebondmarketisjustifiedinpricingdecentoddsofa50bpcut,eventhoughit’s
notmybasecase.Andevenifwe’rerightonthefundamentals,simplemonthlyvolatilityorstatisticalnoisecouldeasilyproduceaprintbadenoughtopushtheFedtowardalargercut.~35%ofthetimetheinitialpayrollsprintisatleast60kbelowour
Issue131
statisticalestimateofthetrend,whichwouldimplyAugust
payrollgainsbelow100k.Andthatisaparticularriskthismonthbecausepayrollgrowthhasanegativefirst-printbiasinAugust.
EveninascenariowheretheincominglabormarketdataareabitworsethanIexpect,I’dseemoredownsideforthefunds
ratethanfortheeconomy.Again,atworst,wehaveaproblemwherelabordemandisabittoosofttoabsorbtemporarily
elevatedlaborsupplygrowth,whichwouldbeamoderate,
slow-moving,andlikelyultimatelysolvableproblemfortheFed.
AllisonNathan:Beyondtheupcomingemploymentreport,whatareyouwatchingtogaugetheUSeconomyandFedpathahead,andwhatwouldleadyoutobecomemore
concernedaboutUSrecessionrisk?
DavidMericle:Fornow,thelabormarketdataseemtobethemostimportantdriverfortheFedandthemostcriticaldataformonitoringdownsideriskstotheeconomy,ifonlybecause
downsiderisksseemlimitedelsewhere.Ofcourse,notonlytheemploymentreport,butalsojobopenings,areimportant.
Inflationdatacouldalsobeatiebreakeriftheemployment
reportisrightontheedge,butthemessagefromJacksonHolewasthatFedleadershiphasnowdecisivelymovedpastfears
ofstickyinflation.Consumerspendingdataarealsokey—if
finaldemandisstillgrowingatagoodpace,it’shardtoworrytoomuchaboutlabordemand.But,regrettably,consumptiondataarevolatileandnotentirelyreliableatahighfrequency,soI’dbemorehesitanttochangemyviewabruptlythere.
It’salsoworthrememberingthatmostrecessionshavean
obviouscatalyst.It’srarethatconsumerspendingorthelabormarketspontaneouslydropsoffwithoutanegativeshock.I
don’tcurrentlyseeanymajorvulnerabilities,suchassevere
financialimbalances.Butanunexpectedfinancialorgeopoliticalshockor,aswelearned,apandemiccanalwaysoccur.Such
eventsarehardtopredictandarethemainreasonthatthe
baseline12-monthrecessionprobabilityis15%evenwhen
everythingseemsfine.We’reat20%recessionoddscurrently.
AllisonNathan:IftheeconomyturnsouttobeweakerthanyouexpectandtheFedcutsby50bp,howeffectivewouldthatbeconsideringthatmonetarypolicyworkswithalagandthatitseemstohavehadlessimpactrecently?
DavidMericle:Idon’tthinkthatmonetarypolicylagsare
actuallythatlong.ThetransmissionfromaFedpivottoeasierfinancialconditionswouldlikelybeimmediate—ifthedatais
worse,themarketwilllikelypriceafastercuttingcyclebeforeFedofficialsannounceit.Andwefindthatthetransmissionlagfromeasierfinancialconditionstotherealeconomyisshorterthanwidelybelieved.Someidiosyncrasiesofthepandemic
cyclelikelydampenedsomeofthetransmissionchannelsof
monetarypolicytotherealeconomy,andatleastsomeof
thoseforcesapplysymmetrically,tohikesandcuts.Totake
oneobviousexample,ratecutswillprovidelesscashflow
boostthroughtherefinancingchannelthanusualbecauseso
manyhomeownersalreadyhavesuchlowmortgagerates.But,I’mnotthatworriedaboutanyofthis—again,wehaveatworstamoderateproblem,andtheFedhas525bpofroomtocut.
GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch5
Issue131
TopofMind
hEl
InterviewwithBillDudley
BillDudleyisformerPresidentoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYork(2009-18).Below,hearguesthattheFedisbehindthecurveinloweringratesanditcouldbedifficultforittocatchupquicklyenoughtopreventarecessiongiventhelongandvariablelagsofmonetarypolicy.
TheviewsstatedhereinarethoseoftheintervieweeanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseofGoldmanSachs.
AllisonNathan:InJune2022,you
arguedthattheFedwasbehindthecurveandneededtohike
aggressivelytotameinflation,
whichwouldinevitablypushtheUSeconomyintorecessionwithin12-
18months.TheFeddidultimatelyhikeaggressively,butrecessiondidnotensue.WhatallowedtheUStoavoidrecession?
BillDudley:Myargumentin2022thatUSrecessionriskwaselevatedwasasimpleone:TheFed’smonetarypolicy
frameworkmeantthatitwouldnottightenmonetarypolicy
until2%inflationandfullemploymentwasachieved,which
wouldmeanthattheFedwouldbelateandthereforelikely
havetotightenpolicysubstantiallyandinduceasizableriseintheunemploymentratetotameinflation.And,accordingtotheSahmrule,ariseinthethree-monthmovingaverageofthe
unemploymentrateofatleast0.5ppaboveits12mlowhas,
since1970,alwaysbeenaccompaniedbyaUSrecession.So,ifmonetarypolicyhadtobetightenoughtoleadtoareasonableincreaseintheunemploymentrate,recessionwouldbethe
mostlikelyoutcome.
However,twofactorsallowedtheUStoavoidrecession.First,inflationexpectationsremainedwellanchored,likelyowingtotheFed’sstronginflation-fightingcredibilityandFedChair
Powell’sconsistentmessagingthattheFedwasdeterminedtobringinflationbackdownto2%,whichlimitedtheamountof
_
tighteningrequiredtotameinflation.Second,thelabormarketnormalizedinabenignmannerastheunwindingofpandemic-eradistortionslargelyprovedenoughtorebalancethelabor
market,ahotlydebatedbeliefatthetimethatturnedouttoberight.ThesefactorsenabledtheFedtotameinflationwithoutalargeriseinunemployment,settingthestageforasoftlanding.
AllisonNathan:InJuly2024,you“switchedallegiance”
fromFedhawktodove,arguingthattheFedisonceagain
behindthecurvebutintheotherdirection,raisingrecessionrisk.Whatledtothisshift?
BillDudley:TheFedhastwoobjectives:maximumsustainable
employmentandpricestability,whichtheyjudgeas2%
inflation.WhenIlookedattheeconomy,riskstotheprice
stabilitymandatethathadbeensoinfocusinrecentyears
werediminishing,whileriskstotheemploymentmandate
wererising.Inflationpressuresinrecentyearsstemmedfrompandemic-eradistortionsinsupplychainsandatightlabor
market.Andwageinflationprovedespeciallysticky,runningat4.0-5.5%foranextendedperiod,dependingonthespecific
indicator.Butwagegrowthhasnowdeclinedconsiderably,asreflectedbothinaveragehourlyearningsof3.6%yoyinthe
lastemploymentreportandmeaningfuldeclinesinthe
employm
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