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IBMPredictiveMaintenance&Quality:ScopingModule2

CandidatesforPredictionBATechnicalSellerOnDemandLearning1SettingtheStage….PotentialusecasecoverageisbroadCan’tdoitallininitialrolloutLooktostartwithsomethingthatwillbeabigsuccessMichaelAdendorff

STSM,Architect–PMQ(SWG)

WhythisisImportanttoKnow…Speakingtoyoutoday…IdentifycandidatesforpredictionEvaluateandselectacandidateWhatyoushouldbeabletodoafterthissession…RecappingModule1:BythisstageyouhavelearnedhowtoanswerthesequestionsYoushouldalsounderstandmetrics&impactonbusinessobjectivesWhatistheoperationalprocess?Whatmeasurementsareavailable?Existingdetection-Whattriggersactions?Existingdecisionservicesandmanagementcontrols?ComingupinModule2:Exploretheuseofnewpredictiveresultstoevaluateprocess/assethealthUnderstandopportunitiestoautomatecontrolprocessesanddecisionservicesImproveeffectivenessofunivariateanalysisCandidatePredictionsUsingdetectionanddecisioningoutputsfrompreviousstageIdentifygapsincurrentprocessUsepredictiveanalyticstosettargetsforvariablesthatcurrentlyhavenotargetReplaceuni-variateorbivariateanalysiswithmultivariateanalysisReplaceadhocanalysiswithautomatedanalyticsReplaceinfrequentbatchanalyticswithrealtimedecisioningEliminatebottlenecksonscarceresourcesBeonthelookoutforsacredcowsandblindspotsStarttonarrowdowntothingswithbigimpact-businessobjectiveBrainstormwithcustomertoidentifyotheropportunitiesPredictiveMaintenanceConsiderationsConsiderationsforfailurepredictionWhatistheeofprediction/decisioningScheduleurgentrepairAdjustpreventativemaintenancescheduleAdjustpreventativemaintenancetasksRepairvsReplaceanalysisPlanforrepairs–parts,outagesPrioritizeengineeringchangesTohelpnarrowdowninitialimplementationconsiderSpecificequipmentSpecificfailuremodesSpecificmeasurementdataProductionQualityConsiderationsAdaptiveinspectionpoliciesandinspectionsamplesizesBatchesthathavebeenexposedtohighprocessvariabilityinanyprecedingoperationrequiremorerigorousqualityinspectionAutomatedinspectionPredictivemodelsinterpretinspectionresultsBuildgoodqualityinratherthaninspectbadqualityoutPredictivemodelsusedtoassessifcurrentconditionsareconducivegoodqualityTohelpnarrowdowninitialimplementationconsiderSpecificproductsSpecificrawmaterialsSpecificoperationsSpecificfailuremodesExercise:Identify3candidatesfromcasestudyExpresscandidatesinthefollowingform:Name

Predict<Measure><withscope>Using<Method>Usepredictiontoperform<Action>Insupportof<BusinessObjective>SampleAnswers:FinalInspectionTasteTest

Predict

InspectionSampleSizeForProduct

TasteTestUsingSPSSModelertocorrelaterawmaterialsvariabilitywithpreviousinspectionresultsandcalculateahealthscoreforeachbatch.UseStatstocalculateInspectionSizebasedonhealthscore.UsepredictiontoenableadaptiveinspectionsamplingInsupportof

CostReductionbyreducingeffortandincreasingyieldTastetestsamplesizeiscurrentlyfixed.Theremaybeopportunitiestoreducetheamountoftastetestingdonetoreducecosts.Theremayalsobeopportunitiestochangetimingoftastetest–sothatitoccursbeforefinalassembly.Thiswillreducescrap.

SampleCandidates:AnalyticSupplierManagement

Predict

GradeForSupplierUsingSPSSModelertocorrelatedataaboutmilkproductionwithgradingresults.UsepredictiontobemoreprescriptiveaboutfarmingpracticesInsupportof

increasingprofitabilitybyincreasingyieldofhighmarginproduct

SampleAnswers:AnalyticSupportforRawMaterialsGrading

Predict

GradeForInspectionofrawmaterialsinGoodsReceivingUsingSPSSModelertocorrelaterawmaterialsmeasurementsandtastingnoteswithhistoricalfinalinspectionresults.Supplementhumanassessmentofgradewithananalyticresult.Usepredictiontore-tastebatcheswherethereisadiscrepancyInsupportof

IncreasedProfitabilitybyoptimizingyieldofhighmarginproductandReducedCostbyreducinghighscrapratesforhighmarginproductThegradingprocessiscurrentlyunreliable…..yetplaysabigroleinyieldandscrapSampleAnswers:AnalyticSupportforFinishedGoodsGrading

Predict

InspectionPass/FailForFinishedGoodsUsingSPSSModelertocorrelateprocessvariability,rawmaterialsmeasurementsandtastingnoteswithhistoricalfinalinspectionresults.Supplementhumanassessmentofgradewithananalyticresult.Usepredictiontore-tastebatcheswherethereisadiscrepancyInsupportof

ReducedCostbyreducinghighscrapratesforhighmarginproductSimilartorawmaterialsgrading–butappliedtofinishedproductSampleAnswers:PredictiveMaintenanceforExtruder

Predict

EquipmentHealthForExtruderUsingSPSSModelertocorrelateexposuretomoisture,contaminantbuildupandotherequipmentmeasurementswithhistoricalfailures.UsepredictiontoscheduleinspectionandcleaningInsupportof

ReducedCostbyreducingpreventativemaintenancecostsExercise:EvaluatecandidatesEvaluatecandidatesaccordingtothefollowingcriteriaFrequencyofoccurance:Currentdetectionmethod:Currenttimetodetect:CurrentFalsepositiverate:CurrentFalsenegativerate:Currentlevelofautomateddecisioning:Expectedimpactonbusinessobjectives:Dataavailability:Exercise:SelectacandidateSelectasinglecandidateforapilot.Writeajustificationforyourdecision.Indicateameasurablenumerictar

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