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ShellScenariosThe2025EnergySecurityScenarios/scenariosGeneratedGeneratedbyAIThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosContentsChangestoChangestotheenergysystem21 Energydemand23Futureoildemand25 Thefuturefornaturalgas26 LNGinthreescenarios27 Low-carbonfuels28 Electrificationinfinalenergy34Anuclearrenaissance? Carbonmanagementandemissions37Theriseofartificialintelligence3 AIandtheevolutionoftheenergysystem3Keyobservations5Newdirectionsinthe21stcentury7 Amixedglobalpicture7 Technologytrends8 Nationalresponsearchetypes10Threesecurityscenarios12 Artificialintelligenceandeconomicgrowth13 Threesecurityscenarios:Archipelagos19 Threesecurityscenarios:Horizon20Policy,theemissionsgap andtemperature45 MeetingtheParisgoal47Finalthoughts49TechnologytimelinesinThe2025 EnergySecurityScenarios50 Referencesandacknowledgements51Legaldisclaimer56The2025EnergySecurityScenariosTheriseofartificialintelligenceWhenShellpublishedTheEnergyAIandtheevolutionoftheenergysystemTheinfluenceofAIAIandtheevolutionoftheenergysystemTheinfluenceofAIisbeingfeltinmanyareas,butoverthenext20to30yearsitcouldbringsignificantchangetotheenergysystem.recordlevelsinmuchofEurope.?Productionofmodules(such?Productionofmodules(suchassolarphotovoltaicpanels,batteriesandheatpumps)fortheenergysystemcouldaccelerateasAIimprovesmanufacturinganddeliversevermorecomplexassemblylineproductionofcomponents.?Autonomoussystemsareappearinginvehicles.Whenvehiclesbegintooperateautonomouslyonalargerscalewithinamanagedtrafficconsiderable,whichcouldsparkamorerapiduptakeofelectricvehicles(EVs).?AmanagedEVsystemallowsthebatterystorageinherentinthevehiclestocontributetoelectricitygridstorageandflexibilityrequirements,hasteningthejourneytoarenewable-onlyelectricitysystem.atwhichaquantumcomputingsystemsolvesproblemsoutsidethereachofclassicalalgorithms),advancesinmaterialsscience,electrochemistry,biotechnologyandnuclearengineeringcouldChatGPTwasfourmonthsoldattheatwhichaquantumcomputingsystemsolvesproblemsoutsidethereachofclassicalalgorithms),advancesinmaterialsscience,electrochemistry,biotechnologyandnuclearengineeringcouldaccelerateelectrificationandenergystorage,introducenewsustainablefuelprocessesandbringsafemodularnuclearreactorsintoavarietyofstationaryandmobileapplications.?LargeenergyinfrastructureprojectscouldbeacceleratedasnewAItoolsareappliedintroducenewsustainablefuelprocessesandbringsafemodularnuclearreactorsintoavarietyofstationaryandmobileapplications.?LargeenergyinfrastructureprojectscouldbeacceleratedasnewAItoolsareappliedtoprojectmanagement.?AIandthesupportingdatasystemswillrequirelarge-scaleuninterruptablepowersupplies,withoverallelectricitydemandincreasingasaresult,evenasotherefficiencygainsaremade.?Electricitysystemmanagement,bothintermsofbalancingsupplyandmanagingdemandthroughsmartresponsesinhomesandfactorieswillfavourrenewableenergysystemswithgridbatterystorage.Location-specificsolutionsarpowerinterconnections.analysis.AtShell,scenarioanalysisplaysakeyroleincreatingcontextandgrowingunderstandingaroundenergysystem,technology,geopoliticalandsocialtrends.ScenariosareanexplorationofhowtheworldcouldpossiblyevolveunderdifferentsetsofassumptioTheprocessofcreatingscenariosinvdifferentpossiblefutures,someofwhichmayseemunlikeorevensurprising.ThevaluetoShellofproducingscenariosistohelpseniormanagementthinkaboutthelong-termmayinfluencethecompany’sstrategy–asoneofmanyinputs.Butscenariosarenotexpressionorbusinessplan.Shellscenariosareinformedbydata,constructedusingmodels,andtheycontaininsightsfromleadingexpertsinrelevantfields.3The2025EnergySecurityScenariosSo,wecometoThe2025EnergySecurityScenarios,wherewehavereimaginedourtwofutureenergyscenariosfrom2023,nowreferredtoasArchipelagosandHorizon(previouslySky2050),inthecontextofaworldmakingmuchgreateruseofAI.Wehavealsoaddedathirdscenario,Surge,whichexploresmoredeeplytheprospectofanewwaveofeconomicgrowthspurredbyproductivityimprovementscatalysedbyAI.Ultimately,forallreaders,scenariosareintendedasanaidtomakingbetterdecisions.Theystretchminds,broadenhorizonsandexploreassumptions.WehopethissetofAI-basedscenariosdoesexactlythat.4The2025EnergySecurityScenariosKeyobservations?Totaldemandfornaturalgascouldgrowintothe2040sreachingaround4,500billioncubicmetres(bcm)peryear,of?Totaldemandfornaturalgascouldgrowintothe2040sreachingaround4,500billioncubicmetres(bcm)peryear,ofwhich700milliontonnesperyear(or952bcm)isliquifiednaturalgas(LNG).Naturalgasisneededtoprovideindustrialheat,fuelforpowergenerationandheatforbuildingsandhasanimportantroleinhelpingtheworldmoveawayfromcoal.?Investmentinoilandgasiscurrentlyaround$600billionperyear,whichwillberequiredfordecadestocomeastherateofdepletionisabout5%peryear,whichisconsiderablyhigherthantheexpectedannualdeclineindemandof1?2%.However,onlythemostcompetitiveresourcesintermsofcost,riskandcarbonintensitywillattractcapital.?Constructionoftheenergysystemisshiftingfromlargebespokeprojectsbuiltinthefieldtomodularunitsproducedonassemblylines.Thiswillaccelertheuptakeofsolarphotovoltaic,windturbines,gridbatteries,heatpumps,hydrogenelectrolysers,potentiallysmallmodularnuclearreactorsandCO2directaircaptureunitsinthefuture.?Followingcurrenttrends,newtechnologiescouldhalvethecarbonintensityoftheenergysystemby2050.Biofuels,carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)andnaturalandengineeredcarbonremovalswillloweroroffsetincombinationwithelectrificationwilldecarbonise?Biofuelsmakeupabout4%ofthegloballiquidfuelmarket.Volumescouldtripleby2050,particularlyifadvancedconversiontechnologiesprogress.Low-carbonhydrogenwillalsogrow,butonlyinareasthatcannotbeelectrified.CCScouldbecomeamulti-billiontonneperyearindustryby2050.Growthatscaleinbothnaturalandengineeredcarbonremovalwillbecrucialfordeliveryofnet-zeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthecentury.Consequently,landmanagement,withafocusonnaturalcarbonstocksandbiodiversity,willbecomeveryimportant.climatechange.?Artificialintelligencetechnologiesheraldsocietalchange.Manyemergingtechnologiesarechangingtheenergylandscape,includingelectrictransport,electricappliancessuchasinductioncookersandindustrialkilnsandboilersheatedbyelectricity,andtherapidgrowthofdatacentresthroughouttheworld.?Demandforenergyservices(thephysicalbenefit,utilityorgoodderivedfromusingenergy)willcontinuetoincreaseastheglobalpopulationgrowsandlivingstandardsrise.Overthenext25yearsaroundathirdoftheworld’sgrowingpopulationwillembracehigherincomelifestyles,suchasbuyingtheirfirstcarortakingtheirfirstflight.?Thescenariosinthisreporthighlightthatprimaryenergydemandin2050couldbenearlyaquarterhigherthan2024dependingoneconomicgrowthrates,energyefficiencygainsandthepaceofelectrification.?Demandforoilislikelytogrowby3?5millionbarrelsperdayintotheearly2030s,withalongbutslowdeclineafterthataspetroleumfuelsremainaffordableandconvenientintransport,particularlyinlong-distanceroadhaulage,aviationandmarine.Theuseofpetrochemicalsislikelytocontinueintothe22ndcentury.56The2025EnergySecurityScenarios?Electrificationincreasesinallsectors.Salesofelectricvehiclesaregrowingrapidlyinsomemarketsasareheatpumpsforhomeheating.However,acompletetransitionwilltaketime–therearecurrently(in2025)1.5billioncarsintheworld,ofwhichsome70millionareelectric,andEuropehasmorethan90milliongasboilersstillinoperation.?Therapidgrowthofrenewablepowerwillcontinue.Solarphotovoltaicwithbatteriesinlower-latitudecountriesandwindinnorthernlatitudeswillsatisfymuchofelectricitydemand.NaturalgasandLNGwillgraduallyshiftfromabaseloadtoaback-upfuelinpowergenerationorsupportuninterruptabledemandinenergy-intensiveindustriesanddatacentres.?Nuclearremainsapartoftheglobalelectricitymix,butmayseenonetgrowthintheshorttomediumtermasolderunitsaredecommissioned.Inthelongerterm,withnewtechnologiesarriving,nucleargrowsagainandfills?Bytheendofthecenturyandwithafocusoncarbonremovaltechnologiesandpractices,theworldcouldachievelessthan1.5°Cofwarming.Butplausiblescenariosindicateanear-termovershootofthisgoalistobeexpected,and2024hasbeenconfirmedbyEurope’sCopernicusobservationagencyasthefirstindividualyeartobreach1.5°C.?Thereissufficientmomentumintheenergytransitiontosuggestapre-2035peakinfossilfueluseandadeclinethereafter.Thesescenariospointtotheworldachievingnet-zeroCO2emissions,butthetimingisuncertain.Afuturewithwarmingabove2?2.5°Cappearsunlikely.GeneratedGeneratedbyAIThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosNewdirectionsinthe21stcenturyAmixedglobalpictureThetechnologyindustryisracingtodevelopnewofaThetechnologyindustryisracingtodevelopnewofaride-hailingappinLosAngelesin2025canmeanadriverlesselectrictaxiturnsup,guidedbyanautonomousartificialintelligence(AI)system.Withextensivedeploymentofrenewablesandtheuseofgridbatteries,CO2emissionsinCaliforniaaredownnearlyathirdsince2005,yetthereisstillunderlyingupwardpressureastheUSeconomygrowsandinnovates.AlsointheUSA,illegalimmigrationandrecentinflationarypressureshavebothcontributedtopoliticalchange.InShenzhen,China,allpublictransportandtaxisareelectricinacountrythatistheworld’slargestproducerofelectriccars.Thecityhas100,000chargepointsforvehicles.ShenzhenandsurroundingGuangdongprovinceareglobalindustrialbehemoths,withgreenhousegasemissionscontinuingtorise.Securityisprimarilymeasuredintermsofeconomicgrowthandunfetteredaccesstofewerthan100,000electricvehiclesontheroad.GiventheproximitytoUkraine,securityconcernsareparamount,anddefencespendinghasrisensharpandlegislation.globalmarkets.Economicgrowth,globalgreenhousegasemissions,bordersecurityandtechnologydevelopmentarekeyissuesforthesecondhalfofthe2020s.Onecommonthreademergingisincreasingcompetitionbetweennations,beiteconomic,militaryorintrade.InBrazil,thereareonlylimitedelectricEconomicgrowth,globalgreenhousegasemissions,bordersecurityandtechnologydevelopmentarekeyissuesforthesecondhalfofthe2020s.Onecommonthreademergingisincreasingcompetitionbetweennations,beiteconomic,militaryorintrade.7The2025EnergySecurityScenariosTechnologytrendsTechnologycompaniesarevyingfordominanceintheemergingeraofAIandmanygovernmentsfindthemselveslosingcontrolofthesetechnologiesfasterthantheyareappearing.AIisloomingasanimportantshaperof21stcenturysociety,includingitsdirectandindirectimpactonthetechnologyaffectsourdailylives.Whilethespeedofchangecanappearblisteringattimes,whichitisinsomeareas,broadtransformationismeasuredindecades.Appleisapproachingitssixthdecadesincestart-upandAmazonisalreadyinitsfourth.Historically,theenergysystemhasbeenthroughmultiplewavesofchange.Typically,thereisaspanof15?25yearsbetweenthefirstappearanceofatechnologyanditbecomingestablished,thenanother15?25yearsforittobeadoptedsystem-wide.Butthattimelineisbeingchallenged.Timelinesfortheadoptionofinformationtechnologyarehalfthosefornewenergysystems.AsAItechnologiesbecomeincorporatedintotheenergysystem,fasterchangemayresult.Astechnologycompaniesadoptlarge-scalemodularproductionofenergysystemcomponents,suchassolarphotovoltaicandbatteries,thereareclearsignsofchange,butwillmorewidespreaddisruptionfollow?Theenergysystemrequireslargeamountsofcapitalinvestmentininfrastructureandthereforetakestimetochange.Carshavealifes25?40years,andfactoriesandhomescanoperatelargelyunchangedfordecadetheenergysystemarealsosolidlyentrenched,fromlabourpracticesthatmayprotectcoalminersinsomecountriestofuelsafetystandardsthatsupportthecommercialaviationindustry.Whiletheenergyindustryischallengedbynewentrantsandnewtechnologies,incumbencyisaninherentfeatureofthesystem.Butincumbencynewmarketsindevelopingcountries.Newmodelsandtechnologiesmaywellbecomethefoundationelementsoftheenergysysteminthesemarkets,asthetoleapfrogafossil-baseddevelopmentpath.GeneratedbyAI9The2025EnergySecurityScenariosTechnologytimelines2005–20102005–2010Lookingback15yearsLookingforward15yearsbb2040–20452025Data-drivensystemsThenewtechnologyofyesterday…Thenewtechnologyofyesterday…?Lifestyleproductivity,AppleiPhoneintroduced(2007)?Maturesearchenginealgorithms(Google)andfirstvideouploadedtoYouTube(2005)Energy-drivensystemsThenewtechnologyofyesterday…Thenewtechnologyofyesterday…?Electriccars:TeslaRoadster?Solar:17GWinstalledwithsubsidies?Firstcommercialgrid-scalebattery,20MWAcronyms:Acronyms:MW–megawattsGW–gigawattsGWh–gigawatt-hoursTW–terawattsTWh–terawatt-hoursPHEV–plug-inhybridelectDAC–directaircapture…isthemainstreamtechnologytoday…isthemainstreamtechnologytoday?Moresmartphonesthanpeople?9billionGooglesearchesperdayand30,000hoursofvideoaddedtoYouTubeperhour……isnowestablishedintheenergysystem(1?5%)?20millionEVandPHEVeachyear(1/4thofproduction)?600GWofsolarPVinstalledperyear?80GW(180GWh)ofgrid-scalebatteriesinuseThenewtechnologytodayThenewtechnologytoday…?GenerativeAI,ChatGPTandlargelanguagemodels?FirstDACdemonstrationfacilities?Industrialelectricprocessesandelectricfurnaces?Modularproductionofenergysysteminfrastructure…andleadstoglobaltransformation…andleadstoglobaltransformation?Increasedconsumptionandproductivity?Virtualservices,autonomoussystemsandpervasiveartificialintelligence……andisbecomingmainstream(>20?30%)?Allnewvehiclesareelectric?1,000+GWofsolarinstallationperyear?3TW(30TWh)ofgrid-scalebatteries…willcreatenewAI-drivenfoundations…willcreatenewAI-drivenfoundations?Vehicleautonomyandautonomoustrafficmanagement?Virtualaggregationofmodularenergysystemcomponents?Massassemblylineproductionofmodularcomponents?DACmoduleproductionscalesupThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosNationalresponsearchetypesFourdifferentarchetyperesponsestosecurity,climate,economicgrowthandtechnologypressuresarenowvisible,basedonhowvulnerablecountriesaretosecurityfailuresandhowtheymanageeconomicvolatility:InnovationWins,whichcanbeseenincountriesareoftenself-sufficientinenergyandotherresourcessoarenotvulnerabletosupplyfailures,buttheirpoliticalsystemsareparticularlyexposedtoeconomicvolatilitysuchasswingsinenergypricesandinflation.Theydonotfeelsothreatenedintheshorttermbutinvestheavilyininnovationandinfrastructureaslonger-termsolutionstotheirneeds.ThesecompetitivecountriesdeterminedtoprotecttheirGreenDream,whichcanbeobservedmakesitrelativelyabletodealwitheconomicvolatility,butitsimport-dependentenergysystemcreatesvulnerabilitytodisruption,suchasaftertheRussianinvasionofUkraine.Thesecountriesmayseeksecuritytreducedenergyuse,increasedenergyefficiencyandanongoingattempttoshiftquicklyandentirelytorenewableenergy.Fordigitaltechnology,protectionismthroughlegalchannelsandheightenedregulationhasemerged,whichcouldleavetheregionwithoutamajortechnologysector.Fourevolvingenergytransitionarchetypes,eachFourevolvingenergytransitionarchetypes,eachwithadifferentpaceofdecarbonisation.GreenDreamGreatWallofChangeInnovationWinsNewsolutionswithrapidcommercialisationthroughincentivesEmergentSurfersRidingthewavesofopportunityReactiontoeconomicvolatilityUsinglegislativeframeworksandstructurestoforcechangeAChina-ledlow-carboninfrastructurepushWithstandingMoreabletoenduresecuritydisruptiontoendureRisingThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosGreatWallofChange,appliesmainlytoChina.ThesizeofChieconomy,itslargecoalresemanufacturingcapabilityandinfrastructureprovidessomeresiliencefrombothglobaleconomicvolatilityandsecuritythreats.Itlookstouseitsmanufacturingstrengthtobuilditspositionasaleadingnationandlow-carbon-energypowerhouse.Surfers,arecountriesthatmayfacenumerouseconomicanddevelopmentvulnerabletobotheconomicvolatilityandsupplysecurity.Buttheyarequicktoadoptnewtechnologieswhenaffordableandtheyseekpartnershipswithothersandtrytoridetheopportunitiescreatedbytheactionsofotherarchetypecountrygroups.Theysubdivideinto:EmergentSurfers,likeIndia,whichareadeptatpoliticalpositioningandeagertoleapfrogtraditionaldevelopmentpathways.RisingSurfers,whichincludetheworld’sleastdevelopedeconomies.Thesenaonestablishingbasicfoundations,suchasexpandingaccesstomodernenergysourcesandprovidingthebasicrequirementsforagoodlife.The2025EnergySecurityScenariosThreesecurityscenariosGDPcomparedinthetGDPcomparedinthethreescenariosGDP,USDtrillion(2016PPP)5002020Note:GDP=grossdomesticproduct;PPP=purchasingpowerparity.20302040Archipelagos··HorizonHistory206020502010400450200250300350100150Asthesecuritymindsetdominatesandtheglobalcompetitivelandscapebecomesmoreintense,nationalintereststakeprecedencewithinpoliticalagendas.Theseagendasareshapedbyconcernsoverinsipideconomicgrowth,AItechnologiesthatprovideadditionaladvantagetoalreadyadvancedeconomies,growingmilitarismfromtraditionaladversaries,andincreasingclimatepressuresseenthroughthelensofextremeweatherevents.Threescenariosemergefromthepressuresfacingnations:Surge,ArchipelagosandHorizon.InSurge,aneraofrobusteconomicgrowthisusheredinbyAItechnologiesthatarewelcomedandnotoverlychallenged,witheconomicgrowthandAIinfrastructuredrivingupenergydemand.ThegeopoliticallandscapeoffersaspurforchangeasChinaandtheUSAcompeteforAIdominance.TheArchipelagosscenarioseesaworldstillmindfuloftheenergysystemdisruptionin2022followingsRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,butalsoaworldthatreactstothepressuresofincreasingmigrationacrossmultiplebordersandunevenglobaltradepatterns.Tradefrictionandgeopoliticsimpingeonthespeedoftheenergytransition,butthisiscounteredsomewhatbygrowingsocietalpressuretoaddressclimatechange,whichforcesaction.Horizonisillustrativeofarapidaccelerationoftheenergytransitionandintroductionofcarbonmanagementpracticestosharplyreduceemissions,bothinresponsetoacomprehensivepolicyframeworkwithstrongsocietalandpoliticalsupport.Importantly,Horizontakesanormativeapproachaimedataworldthatachievestwokeythings:net-zeroemissionsby2050andglobalwarminglimitedto1.5°Cbytheendofthecentury.BothHorizonandArchipelagossharethesameglobalgrowthtrajectory,between2.5%and3%forthebalanceofthe2020sandjustbelow2%throughto2100.ButSurgeisbuiltonhighergrowthassumptions,withaboostinproductivityemergingfromdeeperuseofAItechnologiesinglobalsupplychains.Newgoodsandservicesalsoemerge,furtherboostinggrowth.The2025EnergySecurityScenariosAtfirst,countrieswiththenecessaryinfrastructure,ArtificialintelligenceandeconomicgrowthSingaporeandtheUK.InequalitybetweencountrArtificialintelligenceandeconomicgrowthThetrendtowardsgreaterautomationinblue-collarmanufacturinghasbeenwellestablishedformorethan200years,deliveringThetrendtowardsgreaterautomationinblue-collarmanufacturinghasbeenwellestablishedformorethan200years,deliveringproductivityimprovementsthroughhigherproductionrates,optimisedproductionprocesses,greatermaterialsefficiencyandimprovedproductquality.Inmorerecentdecades,digitalisationhasenabledgreaterautomationofwhite-collartransformedconsumerpurchasing.AdoptionofAIisexpectedtoboostglobalproductivity(GDPperworker),withthebenefitlikelytooutweightheeconomiccostoflabourdisplacement.Thebenefitscouldbeimportantatatimewhenglobalpopulationgrowthisestimatedtohavepasseditspeak,withpopulationdeclinesimminentinsomelargeeconomies.Previoustechnologicalrevolutionshaveboostedgrowthtovaryingdegrees;forexample,thedifferentphasesoftherevolutionininformationandcommunicationstechnologyraisedUSannualproductivitygrowthbybetween0.5and1.5percentagepoints.Theimpactofthesepasttechnologicalrevolutionshasvariedacrosscountries,sectorsandtime.AnInternationalMonetaryFundanalysisdeterminedthataround40%ofglobalemploymentisexposedtoAI,byreplacingsomejobsandcomplementingothers.Thisrangesfrom60%inadvancedeconomiesto40%inemergingmarketsand26%inlow-incomecountries.EstimatesoftheproductivitygainfromAIrangewidelybutaresystematicallylowerforemerginganddevelopingeconomiesthanadvancedeconomies.TheUSAislikelytogainthcapitalmarkets,highR&Dspend,anabilitytoattractskilledmigrants,flexiblelabourmarkets,andanentrepreneurialandinnovativeculture.CountrieslikeChina,SwedenandSouthKoreabenefitfromtheirwell-developedandwidelyaccessibledigitalinfrastructure.TheimpactofAImayresultinaperiodofrisingincomedisparityandanincreasingdigitaldividebetweencountries,asthetechnologypermeatessectorspronouncedgrowth,Chinacontinuesitsroleastheprincipalglobalmanufacturerofenergysysteminfrastructure.Therestoftheworlddoescatchup,butnotallatonce.TheSurfersbenefitfromaccesstomarketsanddata,andadifferentenergysystemarchitectureemergesinmanycountriescomparedwithexistinglegacysystems.ThereisstillrobustindustrialgrowthintheSurferscountries,butthisislargelyonthebackofpopulationgrowthandashiftfromthecurrentlimiteddemandforservices.WhiletheInnovationWinscountriesreapthebiggestrewards,laggingeconomieswillseeamaterialchangeintheireconomiesovertime.Amiddleclassemergesthataspirestogreaterwealth,travelandacquisitionofmaterialpossessions,althoughnottotheUSAinthe20thcentury.Newdigital-basedproductsalsochangeconsumerhandeconomies.The2025EnergySecurityScenariosEvolutionofenergyservicedemandinArchipelagosacrossregionalarchetypes.Surfersdrivefuturedemandinallscenarios.250200150100500StandardisedenergyservicedemandGlobaltotalin2024=1002502001501005002024202420242024Services200020502000205020002050200020502000205020242024202420242024Services2000205020002050200020502000205020002050ChemicalsHeavyindustryAirtravelChemicalsHeavyindustryInnovationWinsGreenDreamGreatWallofChangeSurfersThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosEnergyandartificialintelligenceThescenariosexplorethedifficultiesthatcountriesstrugglewithtodaytodelivereconomicgrowth,preservetheirsovereigntyandstrengthentheirborders,whilelimitingclimatechangeinaneraoftechnologicalchangeandtheemergenceofartificialintelligence.HorizonLong-termenvironmentalsecurityandreachingnet-zeroemissionsby2050,whileaimingfor1.5°CSurgeEconomicsecuritythroughArchipelagosShort-termborderandresourceSurgeEconomicsecuritythroughArchipelagosShort-termborderandresourcesecurity,withself-interestdeeplyrootedinthenationalpsycheimprovements,withAItechnologiesreshapingsocietyThe2025EnergySecurityScenariosThreesecurityscenarios:SurgeThetrendleadsThetrendleadstoamoredispersed,electricity-basedenergysysteminwhichAIintegratesthedeployedmodules,althoughfossilapplicationsduetocostcompetitiveness.Whileelectricitysystemsmaintainregionalcoherence,decisiondispatchinganddemandmanagementbecomemoredecentralisedanddistributed.Manylocalsmartsolutionsemerge,betterintegratingelectricityintolocalenergyuse.SolarPVmanufacturingeasilyexceeds1terawattofpanelproductionannuallyby2030,nearlydoublingfromsome600gigawattsin2025.Therevolutioninbatteryproductionfortransportextendstomodulargridbatteryunits.ThisleadstotherapiddeploymentofcombinedsolarPVandbatteryarrays.Inthe2040s,thesmallmodularnuclearreactor(SMR)comesofage,withrapidproductionof25?200megawattunits.Thesebecomepopularinhighenergyintensityoperations,suchasforverylarge

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