2012年匯豐銀行CEO Stuart Gulliver 談亞洲與國際金融.docx

2012年匯豐銀行CEO Stuart Gulliver 談亞洲與國際金融2012年匯豐銀行首席執(zhí)行官歐智華談亞洲與國際金融Thanks very much. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, Im delighted to be here today and its a real honor to be asked to open this inaugural event of the Fung Global Institute. And both in my personal capacity and as the good chief executive of HSBC, Im very proud of what Victor and William are achieving here in Hong Kong.非常感謝。尊敬的各位來賓，女士們，先生們，今天我很高興到這里就要打開這個就職活動鳳全球研究院的一個真正的榮譽。而在我個人能力與匯豐銀行的優(yōu)秀的首席執(zhí)行官，我非常自豪的是在這里取得勝利，威廉在香港。When the center of the global economy shifts so logically does its intellectual center. We can see this shift in action today as emerging economies begin to exert their influence on the global policy agenda. It is actually only just a decade since Chinas accession to the WTO. At the time it was a highly controversial move. And how much has therefore changed just within those 10 years. Few could have foreseen then that China would now be a leading participant in the G20, or that Europe would agree to concede two seats on the IMFs executive board to make way for faster-growing economies. Or more remarkably that Europes leaders would go cap-in-hand to Beijing for help with their own debt crisis, as they did last year.當全球經(jīng)濟的中心位置，邏輯知識中心。我們可以看到這種轉(zhuǎn)變在今天的行動，為新興經(jīng)濟體開始發(fā)揮其全球政策議程的影響。它實際上只是一個十年自中國加入WTO。在當時這是一個極具爭議的舉動。多少也因此發(fā)生了變化只在那些10年。很少有人能預(yù)見到那時，中國將在20國集團的主要參與者，或歐洲同意承認在IMF執(zhí)行董事會的兩個席位以更快的經(jīng)濟增長方式?；蚋@著，歐洲的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人會卑躬屈膝地到北京為自己的債務(wù)危機的幫助，因為他們?nèi)ツ曜龅摹he financial crisis and the ongoing economic stagnation in the west, particularly in the Eurozone, have fast-forwarded the transition of economic power. Asias role is being redefined in our lifetime. And great powers need great thinkers. We need to work harder to understand better the fundamental transition in world affairs that we are all witnessing, and to acknowledge the challenges that it represents.金融危機和西部經(jīng)濟持續(xù)停滯，尤其是歐元區(qū)的快速轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)，有經(jīng)濟實力的轉(zhuǎn)變。亞洲的作用是在我們的一生中重新定義。大國需要偉大的思想家。我們必須更加努力地工作，更好地理解了根本性的轉(zhuǎn)變在國際事務(wù)中，我們都是見證，并承認它代表的挑戰(zhàn)。Thats why the creation of the Fung Global Institute is so welcome. It has the potential to be a center of new thinking behind the new global economy to be the think tank for the Asian Century. And so I am going to use my remarks this afternoon to suggest three areas where I believe new thinking and leadership is needed.這就是為什么鳳全球研究院的造物是如此受歡迎。它是一個中心的新思維在新的全球經(jīng)濟是智庫亞洲世紀的潛力。所以我會用我的話今天下午的建議三個方面我相信新的思維和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力。But first I want to talk a little bit about the context of the near future. I want to give you a sense of the new global economy as we see it at HSBC. Our own research indicates that the so-called emerging economies, have now basically emerged and now power global growth over the next four decades. They will contribute twice as much growth as the developed markets over this period and by 2050 they will be bigger collectively than the developed markets.但首先，我想談?wù)劷诘谋尘耙稽c。我想給你一種新的全球經(jīng)濟中為我們在匯豐銀行看到它。我們的研究表明，所謂的“新興的經(jīng)濟體，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)基本上出現(xiàn)了現(xiàn)在電力全球增長在未來的四年。他們將兩倍于發(fā)達市場在這一時期和多增長2050，他們將比發(fā)達市場更大些。Trade will be one of the primary engines of this growth as the new South-South connections revolutionize the global economy. As faster-growing markets link-up, creating new connections between Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, trade and capital flows between those areas will grow significantly, in our view, increasing tenfold by 2050.貿(mào)易將這一增長的主要引擎為新的“南南”連接改變?nèi)蚪?jīng)濟。為快速增長的市場連接起來，創(chuàng)建新的連接在亞洲，中東和拉丁美洲的美國，這些地區(qū)之間的貿(mào)易和資本流動將增長顯著，在我們看來，增加了十倍2050。Now the scale of the opportunity is huge in part because the economic borders between many faster-growing nations are still incredibly high. The potential has not been released. Removing these borders, such as tariffs and restrictions on migration, wont be easy, but work is already underway. Countries in Asia have already formed new political alliances. China itself is building ties around the world and trade deals with Latin America are becoming commonplace.現(xiàn)在的機會，規(guī)模龐大，部分是因為許多增長更快的國家之間的經(jīng)濟邊界仍然很高?？赡軟]有被釋放。除此之外，例如關(guān)稅和限制遷移，不容易，但工作已經(jīng)展開。亞洲國家已經(jīng)形成了新的政治聯(lián)盟。中國是世界貿(mào)易協(xié)議與拉丁美洲的美國建立關(guān)系成為家常便飯。Asian markets are going to be hugely attractive. In our estimation, there are 26 economies globally which will have an average annual growth rate over 5% every year between now and 2050. 10 of them are here in Asia: beyond China and India this includes the Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh and the central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.亞洲市場將是非常有吸引力的。在我們的估計，全球有26的經(jīng)濟體將年均超過5%的年增長率從現(xiàn)在每年2050。其中10個是在亞洲：中國和印度之外，這包括菲律賓，馬來西亞，孟加拉國和哈薩克斯坦的中亞國家，土庫曼斯坦和烏茲別克斯坦。Factors such as high standards of education and the rule of law will be key to whether this potential is fully realized. The OECDs Pisa tests suggest that Chinas education system is overtaking many countries in the West with Shanghai leading the pack. As a result of this, and other factors, we project that Chinas income per capita will grow by more than 800% between now and 2050.如高教育水平和法治因素將決定這個潛力的充分實現(xiàn)。經(jīng)合組織的PISA測試表明，中國的教育體系是超越許多西方國家上海領(lǐng)先。由于這一結(jié)果，以及其他因素，我們的項目，中國的人均收入將超過800%，在2050的增長。And yet, by 2050, the seismic shift in the global economy will have only actually just begun. Even after all this progress, and by then as the worlds largest economy, income per capita in China will still only be 32% of that in the US and so potential for further growth remains substantial.然而，2050，在全球經(jīng)濟中的地震將只是剛剛開始。即使所有這些進步，并成為世界上最大的經(jīng)濟體，中國的人均收入仍只有美國的32%，和進一步增長的潛力仍然很大。So thats a glimpse of the world as we see it. But of course there will be many challenges along the way which will require new thinking and new approaches.所以，一睹世界就像我們看到的。當然這一路上會有這將需要新的思維和新的方法的許多挑戰(zhàn)。In our view, the first challenge is to actually learn the lessons of history. History does seem to repeat itself fairly constantly. And the first challenge, therefore, is we all need to learn the lessons of the past few years. I was in Hong Kong in 1997 and I worked closely with a number of people in this room and responding to the Asian crisis, but with the HKMA, when the Hong Kong dollar was attacked, when the Hong Kong stock exchange was attacked. And HSBC, we also worked with central banks of Thailand, Malaysia and others to help them resolve the problems that crisis brought to a head.在我們看來，第一個挑戰(zhàn)是吸取歷史教訓(xùn)。歷史似乎相當不斷重演。和第一個挑戰(zhàn)，因此，我們都需要學(xué)習(xí)過去幾年的教訓(xùn)。我在香港1997和我曾與這個房間里的很多人和應(yīng)對亞洲金融危機，但香港金管局，當美元遭到襲擊，在香港證券交易所被襲擊了。和匯豐銀行，我們還與泰國中央銀行，馬來西亞和其他國家?guī)椭麄兘鉀Q危機帶來了一頭的問題。And the reason why I point this out is actually it was in part this experience that informed HSBCs own response to the Global Credit Crisis in 2007. Our top markets team, including myself and a number of key colleagues, had actually been stress tested for real in Asia 10 years earlier. We had the playbook. We kind of know how to respond. Weve seen this in 1997 and 1998. So in 2007 to 2012 continuing, we have some practice about how to deal with financial market meltdowns.而為什么我指出這一點其實是這部分的經(jīng)驗在2007通知匯豐銀行自己的應(yīng)對全球信貸危機。我們的主要市場團隊，包括我自己和一些關(guān)鍵的同事，已經(jīng)進行了壓力測試的真正在亞洲10年前。我們有劇本。我們都知道如何回應(yīng)。我們已經(jīng)看到，這在1997和1998。所以在2007到2012的繼續(xù)，我們有一些實踐如何應(yīng)對金融市場的崩潰。Now Asia has learned the lessons of the crisis to avoid bubbles and hold large foreign exchange reserve, and of course, post-97/98 when the conventional IMF prescription was put into Asia. Just as this was happening, many western economies were walking straight into trouble. Lets take a few examples of that.現(xiàn)在亞洲已經(jīng)學(xué)到的危機避免氣泡和持有大量外匯儲備的教訓(xùn)，當然，后97 / 98時，IMF的傳統(tǒng)配方放在亞洲。正如這發(fā)生，許多西方經(jīng)濟體正陷入麻煩。讓我們把那幾個例子。First, in the UK. Like elsewhere in the west, UK bank lending conditions loosened significantly from the late 90s. Mortgage spreads halved. And mortgages were available for 125% of a propertys value, because of course property markets always go up as we know. The result was an unsustainable housing boom and a household debt-to-GDP ratio over 100%. That boom spurred on consumers and the trade deficit expanded from 1 to 7% of GDP. This was financed by capital inflows, aided by high UK interest rates which in turn put upward pressure on the UKs currency. The strong pound supported the idea that the whole system was technically sustainable. When it unwound sterling fell 30% in trade weighted terms, and against the US dollar it fell from a peak of 2.11 in November 2007 to a low of 1.35 just a year later.首先，在英國。像其他西方國家，英國銀行的貸款條件放寬明顯從90年代后期。抵押貸款息差減半。和抵押貸款提供房產(chǎn)價值125%的課程，因為房地產(chǎn)市場的不斷上漲，我們知道。結(jié)果是不可持續(xù)的住房市場的繁榮和家庭債務(wù)占GDP的比率超過100%。這種繁榮刺激消費者和貿(mào)易赤字從1擴大到GDP的7%。這是由資本流入的資金，由高英國利率反過來對英國的貨幣升值壓力輔助。堅挺的英鎊支持這一想法，整個系統(tǒng)在技術(shù)上是可持續(xù)的。當它解開英鎊的貿(mào)易加權(quán)匯率下跌30%，兌美元下跌，從十一月2.11的峰值低2007到1.35僅僅一年后。Second, take a look at the situation in the Eurozone, the stresses are strikingly similar to those caused by the dollar-peg in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia in the 90s. Those economies suffered from an inappropriate, inflexible currency pegs, which created capital inflows that were ultimately unsustainable. This is exactly the kind of unwinding which were actually seeing in Greece and Spain today.第二，在歐元區(qū)的情況看，該應(yīng)力是由在馬來西亞的美元匯率造成驚人的相似，在90年代的泰國和印度尼西亞。這些國家的經(jīng)濟遭受了一個不恰當?shù)?，不靈活的匯率制度，造成了資金流入，最終不可持續(xù)的。這正是我們真正看到退繞在希臘和西班牙今天。In both of these examples the lessons of the Asian crisis, of building up excessive leverage against inflexible exchange rates, were not really learned. And as a result, there is a certain sense that Europe is having, in certain of its countries, an emerging markets crisis.在這兩個例子亞洲危機的教訓(xùn)，建立過度杠桿反對不靈活的匯率，并不是真的知道。作為一個結(jié)果，有一定的意義上，歐洲是有，在它的某些國家，新興市場危機。And the policy response to the crisis means that much of the developed world has joined the Bank of Japan in doing what it was doing back in 1997 and 1998, providing cheap liquidity to the financial system. Since 2007, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the ECB (European Central Bank), together with the Bank of Japan have expanded their balance sheets by more than 5 trillion US dollars. Combined, the balance sheets of these banks now total 9 trillion US dollars. Inevitably this liquidity will look to the faster-growing markets in search of greater yield.和應(yīng)對危機的政策意味著，許多發(fā)達國家已加入日本銀行在做什么，就做回1997和1998，為金融系統(tǒng)提供廉價的流動性。自2007以來，美國的聯(lián)邦儲備銀行，英格蘭銀行，歐洲央行（European Central Bank），連同日本央行擴大資產(chǎn)負債表超過5000000000000美元。結(jié)合，這些銀行的資產(chǎn)負債表現(xiàn)在總計9000000000000美元。這不可避免地流動性將目光轉(zhuǎn)向快速增長的市場，在更大的產(chǎn)量的搜索。So, while in the past, we have seen extreme credit expansion and property bubbles, and we have, to some extent, seen this in both Brazil and China, there is, by and large, evidence that the Asian markets have learn the lessons in 1997. They are ready to protect their domestic economies from asset bubbles and overleveraging while striking an appropriate balance to remain open to global trade and capital and all the benefits that globalization has delivered. In addition the Asian financial systems are better regulated and there is much more direct control. China in particular has pursued a careful approach to keep economic expansion at a manageable level. As Asia enjoys superior growth, it will increasingly attract risks such as this glut of cheap liquidity. Learning from the mistakes of the past is the best firewall we have to ensure they are not repeated. And this is an area where Europe should take its lead from Asia.因此，在過去，我們已經(jīng)看到了極端的信貸擴張與房地產(chǎn)泡沫，我們已經(jīng)看到，在某種程度上，這在巴西和中國，有證據(jù)表明，由大，亞洲市場在1997中吸取教訓(xùn)。他們準備保護國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)泡沫和過度杠桿化打擊時，保持開放的全球貿(mào)易和資本的所有好處，全球化提供了一個適當?shù)钠胶?。此外，亞洲金融系統(tǒng)更加規(guī)范和有更多的直接控制。特別是中國追求經(jīng)濟增長在一個可控的水平一個謹慎的方法。作為亞洲擁有優(yōu)越的生長，它將吸引越來越多的風險，如流動性過剩的便宜。從過去的錯誤中學(xué)習(xí)是我們必須確保他們沒有重復(fù)的最好的防火墻。在這方面，歐洲應(yīng)該從亞洲帶鉛。The second big challenge that we need to think about is getting the politics right. We must consider in the new order of the new global economy, how Asia can assert an appropriate influence, reflecting its growing profile in world affairs and its own interests in the resolution of key questions in the global economy.第二大挑戰(zhàn)，我們需要考慮的是獲得政治權(quán)利。我們必須在新的全球經(jīng)濟新秩序的考慮，亞洲如何可以斷言一個適當?shù)挠绊?，反映了其生長曲線和在國際事務(wù)中其自身利益的關(guān)鍵問題的解決全球經(jīng)濟。Chief among these questions right now today is clearly the future of the Eurozone. We must not underestimate the importance of a block of world economic activity, encompassing 500 million people and a very significant part of global GDP. Speculation about the fate of Europes single currency is rife. Banks with significant exposures are being downgraded. The yawning disparity persists between the periphery and core between the surplus and the deficit nations. Yields on 2-year German bonds are currently 0 percent and those on Spanish 2-year bonds, 5%. So you have in Europe a risk version that says I would rather earn nothing and now I will get my money back than take any risk at all. Debt clearly remains too high.在這些問題中的首席現(xiàn)在顯然是歐元區(qū)的未來。我們一定不要低估一塊世界經(jīng)濟活動的重要性，涉及500000000人，在全球GDP中非常重要的一部分。對歐洲單一貨幣投機盛行的命運。以重大風險，銀行的評級被下調(diào)。不斷擴大的差距仍然存在盈余和赤字國家之間的邊緣和核心之間。2年期德國債券的收益率目前是百分之0，在西班牙的2年期債券，5%。所以你有歐洲的風險的版本，說我寧愿沒有了收入，現(xiàn)在我能拿回我的錢都不承擔任何風險。債務(wù)顯然是太高了。Across the industrialized world, income levels are around 10% lower than pre-crisis projections had suggested. Despite a huge monetary and fiscal stimulus I talked about, those central banks have increased their balance sheet by 5 trillion. There has been absolutely no return to business as usual at all. The financial system is far from healthy. The Eurozone capital market is under massive stress, interest rate spreads are wide and the volume of available credit continues to contract.在工業(yè)化國家，收入水平比危機前的預(yù)測已經(jīng)建議降低10%。盡管巨大的貨幣和財政刺激我談到，那些中央銀行增加了他們的資產(chǎn)負債表5000000000000。我們一直都沒有恢復(fù)如常。金融體系是不健康的。歐元區(qū)資本市場是巨大的壓力下，利率價差較大，可用信貸規(guī)模繼續(xù)合同。Against this backdrop, we think there are four essential steps to ensure that the Eurozone remains intact:在這樣的背景下，我們認為這是確保歐元區(qū)仍然是完整的四個基本步驟：First, there needs to be Europe-wide deposit guarantees or deposit insurance provided by the EBA (European Banking Authority) in euros. The issue is both “is my bank solvent”, but also “is my currency going to remain with the value the euro has today”. So Europe-wide deposit insurance in euro probably provided by the EBA.首先，我們需要全歐洲的存款擔保或由EBA提供存款保險（歐洲銀行管理局）在歐元。問題是“我的銀行溶劑”，而且“我要保持貨幣的價值歐元今天”。所以全歐洲的存款保險的EBA歐元可能提供。Second, we believe that we need an EU TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Programme) provided by the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) or, in due course, the ESM (European Stability Mechanism), to recapitalize Europes banks.第二，我們相信我們需要一個歐盟TARP（問題資產(chǎn)救助計劃）由EFSF（歐洲金融穩(wěn)定機構(gòu)）提供的，在適當?shù)臅r候，ESM（歐洲穩(wěn)定機制），來調(diào)整歐洲銀行。Third, a euro bond does need to be issued, which is the joint of several responsibility of all European countries. And that money goes down into the troubled sovereign nations to avoid them having to tack the global capital markets. Unclearly, all of this implies a move towards some form of fiscal concordat.第三，歐元債券需要發(fā)行，這是所有歐洲國家共同連帶責任。那錢去陷入困境的主權(quán)國家避免他們把全球資本市場。不清楚，這一切意味著對某種形式的財政協(xié)約的舉動。Clarity and leadership on these points will be vital but actually sadly its completely missing at this point in time. Although there is no evidence of the political will necessary to make this happen. In particular from the stronger currencies, all of the stronger currencies will lose countries, will lose out massively, should the Eurozone eventually fall to pieces.對這些問題的清晰與領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力將是至關(guān)重要的其實可悲的是它完全丟失在這個時間點。雖然沒有證據(jù)，必要的政治意愿來讓這一切發(fā)生。特別是從貨幣升值，本幣走強會失去所有的國家，將失去大量的，歐元區(qū)應(yīng)該最終瓦解。Of course, looking beyond Europe, broader issues persist. The gravitational pull of the faster growing markets is proving to be more destabilizing than many had expected. The structural decoupling witnessed over the last decade or so with faster growing nations powering forward while industrialized nations are left languishing has shifted relative prices and wages. Commodity prices are up, Western wages are stagnant and, as a result, real incomes in the west are not robust enough, hampering debt repayment. And there is a real social issue of high and structural youth unemployment in many European countries.當然，在歐洲以外的更廣泛的問題，堅持。增長最快的市場引力被證明是比許多人預(yù)期的更不穩(wěn)定。結(jié)構(gòu)解耦見證了過去十年左右的時間增長更快的國家提供了與在工業(yè)化國家都停留已經(jīng)相對價格和工資。商品價格上漲，西方工資停滯不前，作為一個結(jié)果，在西方真正的收入是不足夠強大，阻礙了償還債務(wù)。有高的結(jié)構(gòu)在許多歐洲國家，青年失業(yè)的一個真正的社會問題。People talk about a two-speed European economy. In fact we are looking at a two-speed global economy. And there are potentially significant consequences to this. And therefore in the West politicians are beginning to assert control over completely new areas. At very least, central banks risk being embroiled in politics: their independence in many areas is being challenged. So getting the politics right will be vital to easing the inevitable political tensions, and preventing new imbalances and supporting the future growth I have described.人們談?wù)摰囊欢贇W洲經(jīng)濟。事實上我們看到的是一二速的全球經(jīng)濟。這個問題有著潛在的重大影響。因此，在西方政客開始主張完全新的區(qū)域控制。至少，中央銀行的風險被卷入政治：在很多領(lǐng)域的獨立性受到挑戰(zhàn)。因此獲得政治權(quán)利將緩解不可避免的政治緊張局勢至關(guān)重要，防止新的不平衡和支持我所描述的未來發(fā)展。And then, this brings me to the last challenge, which is we all need to test the conventional wisdom that builds up. What are the unseen factors which could undercut our vision of the future? Few saw the financial crisis coming until it was too late. The dangers of consensus and group-think are real we saw them in Asia in 1997. Very few of us foresaw what happened on July 2, 1997. It wasnt just the handover here. It was attack on the Thai Baht. And actually very few of us saw the global credit crisis coming in the summer of 2006 into the summer in 2007. So there is actually a tremendous problem with group think, the tremendous problem with that consensus view building even among the intellectual classes.然后，這給了我最后的挑戰(zhàn)，這是我們都需要的測試，建立了常規(guī)的智慧。這可能會削弱我們對未來的愿景的看不見的因素是什么？很少看到金融危機到來的時候已經(jīng)太晚了。共識和群體思維的危險是真實的我們看到他們在亞洲1997。很少有人預(yù)見到1997年7月2日發(fā)生了什么事。這不只是回歸。這是對泰銖的攻擊。事實上我們很少看到全球信貸危機的到來在夏季的2006到2007夏天。因此，實際上是一個巨大的問題，小組認為，與共識建筑甚至在知識階層的巨大的問題。We cant afford to compromise the growth which will improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people over the coming decades. So we need iconoclasts we need people who will challenge the conventional thinking. We need new thinking, and organizations like this Institute will be the ones to provide it.我們不能妥協(xié)，這將提高在未來幾十年里，數(shù)億人的生命的成長。所以我們需要的人我們需要的人誰將挑戰(zhàn)傳統(tǒng)思維。我們需要新的思維，和這樣的組織研究所將提供它的。For example, the world is expecting the role of the faster-growing markets to change as they move from being producers to consumers. Taking the broadest definition, Asias middle class is now 740 m