電子元件：轉(zhuǎn)型中國：聲學(xué)行業(yè)的上行周期買入歌爾聲學(xué)(摘要)0816

1、49.00 39.24 1,350 2012 年 8 月 16 日 中國：科技：硬件電子元件 轉(zhuǎn)型中國：聲學(xué)行業(yè)的上行周期 買入 歌爾聲學(xué)（摘要） 證券研究報告 對歌爾聲學(xué)的首次評級為買入 我們預(yù)計聲學(xué)行業(yè)將上演新版的“中國制造”故事，近期中國供應(yīng)商在全球市場 上份額不斷擴(kuò)大的勢頭將會持續(xù)。憑借下列優(yōu)勢，歌爾聲學(xué)有望受益于新一輪增 長周期：1) 智能終端相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)占比較高：受益于智能手機(jī)/平板機(jī)市場強(qiáng)勁終端需 求的業(yè)務(wù)比重不斷上升，這應(yīng)有助于公司表現(xiàn)超越同行企業(yè)；2) 客戶群實力雄 厚：在現(xiàn)有三星業(yè)務(wù)基礎(chǔ)上，來自蘋果和索尼等新一線客戶的收入在 2011 年初 轉(zhuǎn)型中國 轉(zhuǎn)型中國是我們在 2012

2、 年新推出的系列主題報告。該 系列報告將關(guān)注那些我們認(rèn)為在未來幾年將因競爭格局 變化、新技術(shù)推出或全球環(huán)境改變等因素而出現(xiàn)重大變 革的行業(yè)。 investment profile 步小規(guī)模生產(chǎn)之后應(yīng)會在 2012 年開始增長；3) 擁有規(guī)模效應(yīng)優(yōu)勢：歌爾處于行 業(yè)領(lǐng)先地位的收入水平和強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流增長應(yīng)有助于公司擴(kuò)大市場份額并 改善盈利能力。我們對歌爾聲學(xué)的首次評級為買入，基于 peg 的 12 個月目標(biāo)價 格為人民幣 49 元，隱含 25%的潛在上行空間。 low growth returns * multiple volatility high growth returns * mul

3、tiple volatility percentile20th40th60th80th100th goertek inc. (002241.sz) 智能終端時代的到來將令中國聲學(xué)企業(yè)迎來上行周期 asia pacific technology peer group average 我們認(rèn)為智能終端（智能手機(jī)和平板機(jī)等）時代的到來將令全球聲學(xué)市場迎來上 行周期，終端應(yīng)用的需求量不斷增長，對用戶體驗和輕巧機(jī)型的重視帶動電聲器 件的單機(jī)價值上升。隨著研發(fā)、員工技能和技術(shù)的不斷改善，中國公司的市場地 * returns = return on capital key data price (rmb)

4、12 month price target (rmb) for a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. current 位日益提高。2008 年金融危機(jī)以來，瑞聲科技、歌爾聲學(xué)和共達(dá)電聲等中國企業(yè) 已從日韓企業(yè)贏得了市場份額。鑒于中國企業(yè)的市場地位持續(xù)改善、聲學(xué)技術(shù)處 market cap (rmb mn / us$ mn) foreign ownership (%) 33,275.9 / 5,233.2

5、- 于領(lǐng)先水平、成本結(jié)構(gòu)具有競爭力，我們預(yù)計這一趨勢還將持續(xù)。 歌爾聲學(xué) vs. 瑞聲科技：歌爾的增長將會快于瑞聲 我們認(rèn)為，在滲透到蘋果/索尼的供應(yīng)鏈之后，歌爾聲學(xué)有望憑借其電子配件和 odm 業(yè)務(wù)的較快發(fā)展而在銷售/利潤增長速度方面領(lǐng)先于瑞聲科技。我們認(rèn)為這 一區(qū)別的原因來自于兩家公司在產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)能力方面的差異，歌爾的 odm eps (rmb) eps growth (%) eps (diluted) (rmb) eps (basic pre-ex) (rmb) p/e (x) p/b (x) ev/ebitda (x) dividend yield (%) roe (%) croc

6、i (%) 12/11 0.70 (4.5) 0.70 0.70 55.9 14.1 22.4 0.0 28.4 32.6 12/12e 1.10 57.0 1.10 1.10 35.6 6.5 23.1 0.7 26.0 28.0 12/13e 1.79 62.5 1.79 1.79 21.9 5.3 15.6 1.1 26.8 29.5 12/14e 2.35 31.2 2.35 2.35 16.7 4.3 12.0 1.5 28.5 30.5 生產(chǎn)經(jīng)驗以及更積極的資本開支計劃。我們還預(yù)計，隨著其快速增長，歌爾的凈 price performance chart 40 利潤/croci 將

7、在 2012-14 年逐漸追趕瑞聲科技。 我們的觀點面臨的風(fēng)險 融資風(fēng)險、重大技術(shù)變革、執(zhí)行風(fēng)險、重要客戶流失、勞動力成本壓力。 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 aug-11nov-11feb-12may-12 goertek inc. (l)shenzhen a index (r) *全文翻譯將隨后提供 李哲人 +86(10)6627-3326 北京高華證券有限責(zé)任公司 執(zhí)業(yè)證書編號: s1420512030002 北京高華證券有限責(zé)任公司及其關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)構(gòu)與其研

8、究報告所分析的企業(yè)存在業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系，并且繼續(xù)尋求發(fā)展這些關(guān)系。因此，投資者應(yīng) 當(dāng)考慮到本公司可能存在可能影響本報告客觀性的利益沖突，不應(yīng)視本報告為作出投資決策的唯一因素。 有關(guān)分析師的申明和其他 重要信息，見信息披露附錄，或請與您的投資代表聯(lián)系。 北京高華證券有限責(zé)任公司投資研究 3 5 9 11 14 16 19 2 2012 年 8 月 16 日 table of contents executive summary: rise of china acoustics buy goertek china acoustic industry: winner in the secular upcyc

9、le we like goertek for its smart terminal exposure, improving client portfolio, leading economies of scale comparing goertek and aac: goertek leads in growth gs sustain: goertek leads on industry positioning and returns financials: we estimate a 46% eps cagr in 2012e-14e; buy valuation: target price

10、 of rmb49 based on peg methodology risks company profile disclosure appendix prices in this report are as of close of august 14, 2012, unless specified otherwise. exhibit 1: goertek comp sheet global acoustic and a-market comparable companies valuation summary 中國：科技： 硬件 - 電子元件 23 23 26 tickercompany

11、 mkt cap us$ mn rating p/e p/b roe ev/ebitda cy13e cy14e cy13e cy14e cy13e cy14e cy13e cy14e a-market acoustic component 002241.sz 002655.sz goertek gettop 5230.7 299.6 buy nc 21.9 18.4 16.7 14.2 5.3 3.3 4.3 3.7 23.7% 17.0% 25.1% 19.8% 15.6 12.9 12.0 12.9 other a-market component companies 300115.sz

12、 002547.sz 002236.sz 002456.sz 002635.sz evenwin chunxing dahua o-film anjie 1223.7 546.4 3366.7 1030.4 1011.4 nc nc nc nc nc 23.4 21.1 24.8 26.1 29.0 18.0 14.6 17.6 20.6 22.2 4.2 3.0 7.0 4.7 4.9 3.4 2.5 5.3 4.0 4.1 17.9% 13.9% 29.2% 18.8% 17.3% 19.0% 16.3% 30.8% 19.0% 18.8% 15.2 14.7 22.5 16.9 20.2

13、 11.5 9.8 16.1 14.4 15.1 gh a-share telecom equipment 600498.ss fiberhome1922.9buy*16.213.22.01.811.4%12.4%10.68.5 000063.sz 002281.sz 002313.sz 300134.sz zte accelink sunsea tat fook 6002.1 519.4 710.8 595.6 buy neutral neutral neutral 9.4 19.2 16.4 24.2 8.1 15.7 12.7 17.9 1.3 2.5 3.2 1.4 1.2 2.3 2

14、.6 1.3 12.9% 13.2% 18.0% 5.9% 13.4% 14.6% 19.4% 7.4% 6.9 16.3 12.7 10.5 6.4 13.5 9.8 8.1 average median 20.8 21.5 15.9 16.2 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 16.6% 18.0% 17.2% 18.9% 14.6 14.9 11.5 11.7 offshore market acoustic component 2018.hk dov.us aac dover 3791.2 10640.4 buy buy 11.8 11.1 10.8 9.9 3.5 1.8 2.9 1.

15、6 29.6% 15.8% 27.0% 16.3% 8.8 6.1 7.8 5.4 7718.t star micronics413.7neutral13.011.60.80.86.2%6.7%3.02.4 2439.tw 6804.t merry hosiden 202.7 407.2 nc nc 8.3 22.1 7.3 24.4 1.2 0.3 n/a n/a 15.0% 1.5% n/a n/a 5.0 n/a n/a n/a average median 13.3 11.8 12.8 10.8 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.6 13.6% 16.6% 15.0% 16.3% 5.7 5

16、.6 5.2 5.4 note: dover is knowles parentco; other a-share component companies future ev are based on current net debt; * denotes stock is on our conviction list. nc = not covered; estimates for not covered companies are from wind or bloomberg; roe calculated using total shareholders equity. source:

17、quantum, wind, bloomberg, goldman sachs research estimates, gao hua securities research estimates. 高華證券投資研究 3 2012 年 8 月 16 日中國：科技： 硬件 - 電子元件 executive summary: rise of china acoustics buy goertek transforming china transforming china is a new series of thematic reports we are introducing in 2012. t

18、he series will focus on industries which we believe will undergo significant transformation over the next few years due to a change in the competitive landscape, the introduction of new technology or a change in the global environment etc. leveraging gs global industry expertise and resources, we ho

19、pe to bring fresh perspectives or unique insights into the analysis of these trends or events. in addition, we will utilize our gs sustain framework to identify companies with superior and sustainable business models that we think can generate industry leading returns and become long term industry w

20、inners. combined with our industry valuation analysis, we hope to provide actionable investment ideas that we believe will generate alpha in the timeframe presented. rise of china acoustics buy goertek we believe the global acoustic market is in a secular upcycle with unit growth in end applications

21、, such as smartphones and tablets, and increasing acoustic content per box. we believe china acoustic vendors will continue to gain market share due to chinas improving positioning in the global smart terminal supply chain, leading acoustic technologies, and competitive cost structures. we also expe

22、ct goertek to outperform the industry, driven by its favorable product exposure, improving client portfolio, and leading economies of scale. in this report, we initiate on goertek with a buy rating and 12-month target price of rmb49. china acoustic industry: winner in a secular upcycle we believe th

23、e global acoustic market is in a secular upcycle, due to rising demand for end applications (such as smartphones/tablets) and increasing content per box, driven by higher user experience requirements and demand for slimmer form factors. we forecast goerteks total addressable market to grow at 8.6% c

24、agr in 2012-2020e, and we expect goertek to gain market share. we expect the “made in china” story to repeat in the smart terminal era, and believe china is becoming a more important player in the global acoustic market, with improvements in its acoustic research and development, technology, and tal

25、ent pool. we note that china acoustic vendors such as aac, goertek and gettop have been gaining market share at the expense of their japanese and korean peers such as hosiden, bse star micronics, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. we believe the trend will continue in the foreseeable future

26、, due to chinese players improved positioning in the global market, leading acoustic technologies, and competitive cost structures. goertek: initiate at buy as we expect another growth cycle we believe goertek is entering another growth cycle starting in 2012 after it penetrated the supply chains of

27、 tier-1 clients (global brand recognition, and leading shipping volume) such as apple and sony in 2011 and completed its rmb2.3bn private placement in 1q12. we initiate on the stock with a buy rating as it meets our three stock picking criteria: 高華證券投資研究 4 2012 年 8 月 16 日中國：科技： 硬件 - 電子元件 favorable e

28、xposure to smart terminals: our global tech team believes smartphones and tablets are the end applications with the strongest growth potential and major drivers of the global consumer electronics (ce) market (see exhibit 11). we believe goerteks 53% revenue exposure as of 2012e to smart terminals wi

29、ll enable it to outperform the industry which has an average exposure ratio of around 14% by our estimates. strong client portfolio: we expect goerteks revenue from its new tier-1 clients such as apple and sony to ramp up in 2012e after the initial small volume supply in 2011 as it just entered thei

30、r supply chains, while its share of samsungs supply chain could continue to rise if its cost structure remains competitive and it continues to make inroads into new products such as tvs and led. we also see potential revenue upside if goertek is able to expand its client portfolio to include the chi

31、na oems. leading economies of scale: we also expect goerteks industry leading revenue scale, strong operating cash flow growth to help the company to gain market share and improve profitability. we compare goertek and aacs (2018.hk, buy, hk$23.95, covered by robert yen) operations in this report. ov

32、erall, we believe that goertek could outperform aac in sales/net profit growth in 2012-14e, driven by its faster expansion in accessory/odm businesses after penetrating apple/sonys supply chains. we attribute this to goerteks historically different product mix, experience in accessory/odm manufactur

33、ing, lower earnings base, and better financing resources. gs sustain: goertek leads in industry positioning and return on capital among our a-share hardware coverage gs sustain integrates analysis of returns on capital, industrial positioning and management engagement in mitigating esg risks to iden

34、tify companies well placed to sustain industry leading croci over the long-term. we appraise goertek and its peers within our gs sustain framework and conclude goertek is industrially well placed with strong croci performance vs. peers given its exposure to high growth addressable markets stable gro

35、ss margin performance, while its esg score is at industry average level. public disclosure of the sectors engagement with esg factors is still low. thus we do not consider the comparison of esg scores among these five stocks (goertek, fiberhome, accelink, sunsea, and tat fook) very meaningful given

36、the very limited information. however, we still present the scores to allow investors to appraise the potential sources of risk from an esg perspective. if we suppress the esg analysis to focus on croci and industry positioning, goertek looks the most attractive. valuation: our peg-based 12-month ta

37、rget price is rmb49 we derive goerteks 12-month target price of rmb49 based on a 0.88x peg ratio from our sector peg regression model, implying 27x 2013e p/e and 21x 2014e p/e. we apply the same valuation methodology to our other ten a-share tech stocks. we believe this methodology: 1) can better re

38、flect the valuation for high-growth tech stocks; and 2) outperforms in our backtesting comparison with three other methodologies. 高華證券投資研究 2013ep/e 5 2012 年 8 月 16 日中國：科技： 硬件 - 電子元件 exhibit 2: we derive a target peg ratio of 0.88x from our sector peg regression model to get our 12-month target price

39、 of rmb49 2013e p/e vs. 2014e/13e eps growth 45.0 nationz 40.0 y=95.92x2.6263 r=0.512 iflytek bewinner 35.0 30.0 25.0 navinfo talkwebtatfook goertek 20.0accelinkfiberhome 15.0 zte(a) ultrapower sunsea 10.0 5.0 0.0 0%10%20%30%40%50% 2014e/13eepsgrowth source: datastream, gao hua securities research e

40、stimates. risks to our investment view risks to our investment view include funding risks, key technology changes, execution risks, loss of key customers, labor cost pressures. china acoustic industry: winner in the secular upcycle the global acoustic market is now in a secular upcycle, in our view,

41、 due to the growing volume of end applications and increasing acoustic content per box driven by higher user experience requirements on sound performance and the demand for slimmer form factors. chinese acoustic vendors have increased their market shares since the 2008 financial crisis and we believ

42、e they will continue to do so. global acoustic component sector is in a secular upcycle the global acoustic component sector is experiencing an upcycle in the smart terminal era, in our view. we believe both volume and asp for acoustic components could grow (for example, the price of a microelectrom

43、echanical systems (mems) microphone is us$0.45 vs. us$0.25 for traditional electret microphone) driven by higher user experience requirements and the demand for slimmer form factors. our analysis suggests that the total value of acoustic components per handset could rise from us$0.9-1.4 currently to

44、 us$2.5-3.7 in the next few years, with improved receiver, speaker box and mems microphones designs and given that smartphones as a percentage of the total handset market will rise from 27% in 2011 to 35%/42% in 2012e/13e according to our global tech team. higher user experience requirements: to pro

45、vide better sound-related performance to satisfy the rising user experience requirements, smart terminals are increasingly adopting 高華證券投資研究 unit,mn us$,mn 2 6 2012 年 8 月 16 日中國：科技： 硬件 - 電子元件 array or module solutions. for example, the latest ipad is using two speaker boxes, each comprising 2-3 spea

46、ker components compared to a feature phone which only has 1-2 speaker components, to provide users with a better audio experience. slimmer form factors: as smartphone designs are skewed towards slimmer form factors, more miniature/mems components and new designs (which are likely to have higher asps

47、) are needed to save space while improving the acoustic performance. we estimate the global miniature acoustic component market to grow at an 11% cagr in 2011-2015e, and total shipment volume to reach 17.8bn in 2015e. exhibit 3: acoustic content per handset is increasing acoustic component content p

48、er handset exhibit 4: and we expect the global miniature acoustic component market to grow at 11% cagr during 2011- 2015e global miniature acoustic component shipment, 2007-2015e now future unit asp unit asp margindriver higher major vendors aac, knowles, 20,000 18,000 receiver10.310.4highqualityhos

49、iden, bse, 16,000 designgoertek 14,000 speaker1-20.32-40.6high aac, knowles, speaker box hosiden, bse, goertek 12,000 10,000 microphone 1-20.250.45mid mic array and digital/mems mics goertek, knowles, bse, hosiden, gettop, aac 8,000 6,000 4,000 total value us$0.9-1.4 us$2.5-3.7 2,000 0 2007200820092

50、0102011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e speaker/receivermicrophone source: gao hua securities research estimates.source: cead, gao hua securities research estimates. exhibit 5: we estimate goerteks total addressable market to grow at 8.6% cagr for 2012- 2020e and reach us$20bn by 2020e goerteks total addres

51、sable market by products, 2011-2020e 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 speaker/receivermicrophoneheadphoneothers source: company data, cead, goldman sachs research estimates, gao hua securities research estimates. 高華證券投資研究 unit,mn unit,mn 2010 7 2012 年 8 月 16 日中國：科技： 硬件 - 電子元件 china vendors have b

52、een gaining market share chinese acoustic vendors have been gaining market share from japanese and korean peers since the 2008 financial crisis. we believe this trend will continue in the smart terminal era, due to chinese players improved positioning in global supply chain (after entering tier-1 cl

53、ients supply chains), leading acoustic technologies, and competitive cost structures. mobile phones and tablets are increasingly made in china with chinas supply of handset components growing to over 60% of total global supply in 2010 from 9% in 2000. we expect this “made in china” story to repeat i

54、n the smart terminal era, due to chinas low cost structure, supply chain advantages, and emerging domestic demand: competitive cost structure: although chinas coastal areas are facing rising labor cost pressures due to rising inflation and lower supply of migrant workers, china is still a cost leade

55、r, with the ability to provide products at 10%-30% lower cost than overseas peers according to our industry checks. we see moving factories to inland china as a possible solution to maintaining a low cost structure in the long run. supply chain advantages: due to its leading position in the feature

56、phones era, china has built up supply chain advantages in certain areas such as the pearl river delta and yangtze river delta. for acoustic components, the shandong province is another important manufacturing base besides the pearl river delta area. emerging domestic demand: our global tech team exp

57、ects china to surpass north america in 2013e to be the biggest end market for smartphones with an annual shipment of 198mn into china (or 24% of global demand). we believe the strong emerging domestic demand will help local vendors to grow in the long run. exhibit 6: china supplied over 60% of globa

58、l handsets in global handset supply, 2000-2010 exhibit 7: we expect china to be the biggest end-market, accounting for 25% of global smartphone demand in 2015e global smartphone market, 2007-2015e 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 28% 36% 35% 37% 48% 48% 46% 51% 63% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 1400 1200 100

59、0 800 600 12% 13%14% 13% 10%12%9% 16% 24% 24% 25%25% 30% 25% 20% 15% 600 400 200 0 9% 20% 20% 10% 0% 400 200 0 5% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 chinarest of worldchina as % of world supply (rhs)rest of worldchinachina as % of world demand (rhs) source: ceic, goldman sachs research.source: gartner, goldman sachs research estimates. we expect the china acoustic industry to play a key role in the “made in china” story, given that acoustic component is one area where china has competitive capabilities in terms of research, technology, and talent pool. china had