E-Biz-Strikes-Again!譯文

1、MAY 10, 2004   As the Internet boom turned into bust, corporate America could be forgiven for allowing itself a small sigh of relief. When all was giddy, and the stock market giddiest of all, big companies feared the disruptive power of the Net. Look what happened to Barnes & Noble (BK

2、S ), they fretted, as A (AMZN ) changed the game of bookselling. Or how Expedia Inc. (IACI ) overran travel agents. No one wanted to be the next to get "Amazoned." So when the NASDAQ buckled in 2000, the corporate giants relaxed - relieved that things weren't going to change as radical

3、ly or as rapidly as they had feared.隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅，美國企業(yè)可以原諒自己一個小小的松了一口氣。 當(dāng)所有人頭暈?zāi)垦?，股市最惶惶時，大公司擔(dān)心網(wǎng)絡(luò)的破壞力。 看看BarnesNoble（BKS）發(fā)生了什么事，他們擔(dān)心，因為A（AMZN）改變了書籍銷售的游戲。 或者Expedia Inc.（IACI）如何影響旅行社。 沒有人想成為下一個“亞馬遜”。 所以當(dāng)納斯達(dá)克在2000年屈服的時候，企業(yè)巨頭放松了，放松了，事情不會像他們所擔(dān)心的那樣急劇變化。Uh-oh - the threat is back. Net companies have survived th

4、eir nuclear winter, and throughout the economy, big companies are again under assault. Again, the Web is threatening to force down the prices charged by traditional players, squeeze their margins, and even put some out of business. New technology, new ways of doing business, and new approaches to cu

5、tting out the middleman mean the old pricing power is collapsing in a series of industries - and existing leaders will be forced to find new ways to make money. The pressing question is: How many more industries will be transformed by the Net? "How high is the sky?" answers Barry Diller, C

6、EO of InterActiveCorp (IACI ) , which owns Expedia and other Net properties.呃 - 威脅又回來了 網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司在核冬天中幸免于難，而在整個經(jīng)濟中，大公司又遭到攻擊。 網(wǎng)絡(luò)再一次威脅要壓低傳統(tǒng)企業(yè)收取的價格，壓縮利潤，甚至放棄一些業(yè)務(wù)。 新技術(shù)，新業(yè)務(wù)方式和中間商切割新方法意推薦精選味著舊的定價能力正在一系列行業(yè)中崩潰 - 現(xiàn)有的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者將被迫尋找新的賺錢方式。 緊迫的問題是：網(wǎng)絡(luò)將會有多少行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型？ “天空有多高？” InterActiveCorp（IACI）擁有Expedia和其他網(wǎng)絡(luò)資產(chǎn)的首席執(zhí)行官Barry Dille

7、r。In the first wave of disruption, Amazon, Expedia, and others rewrote the rules for books, music, and air travel. Now the Web is poised to remake at least six more major industries: jewelry, bill payments, telecom, hotels, real estate, and software. In the jewelry business, online players are set t

8、o wreak havoc on traditional players. Amazon CEO Jeffrey P. Bezos, who jumped into the business on Apr. 22, says he can buy a diamond wholesale for $500 and resell it for $575. Never mind that Tiffany (TIF ), Zale (ZLC ), and neighborhood stores are used to getting $1,000 for the same stone. Five-ye

9、ar-old Blue Nile Inc. has proved that this strategy can be very profitable. The online jeweler made $27 million on $129 million in sales last year. The upstarts "are going to kill everyone," says analyst Ken Gassman of New York-based Rapaport, which publishes a diamond industry newsletter.

10、在第一波中斷，亞馬遜，Expedia和其他人重寫了書籍，音樂和航空旅行的規(guī)則。 現(xiàn)在網(wǎng)絡(luò)正在重塑至少六個主要行業(yè)：珠寶，賬單支付，電信，酒店，房地產(chǎn)和軟件。 在珠寶行業(yè)，網(wǎng)絡(luò)玩家將對傳統(tǒng)玩家造成嚴(yán)重破壞。 4月22日，亞馬遜公司首席執(zhí)行官杰弗里·貝佐斯（Jeffrey P. Bezos）說，他可以買500美元的鉆石批發(fā)，并以575美元的價格轉(zhuǎn)售。 不用擔(dān)心蒂芙尼（TIF），Zale（ZLC）和鄰里商店習(xí)慣于為同一塊石頭獲得1000美元。 五歲的Blue Nile Inc.已經(jīng)證明，這個策略可以非常有利可圖。 在線珠寶商去年以1.29億美元的價格銷售了2700萬美元。 紐約Rapapo

11、rt的分析師肯·加斯曼（Ken Gassman）說，這些暴發(fā)戶“將會殺死所有人”，該公司發(fā)布了一份鉆石業(yè)通訊。Brave talk like that is surfacing again because this show turned out to star more than just eBay (EBAY ) and the Failures. Companies that made it through the dot-com bust worked hard to get their houses in order. Nearly 60% of the remaining

12、 public Internet companies made money in the fourth quarter of last year, based on standard accounting measurements. Those profits are luring investors back to the market. Venture-capital investments topped $5 billion in the first quarter for the first time in nearly two years, while 14 Net companie

13、s are registered to go public.推薦精選像這樣的勇敢的談話再次浮出水面，因為這個節(jié)目不僅僅是eBay（EBAY）和失敗的明星。 通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅的公司努力爭取他們的房子。 根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的會計計量，去年第四季度，剩下的公共互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司中有近60賺錢。 這些利潤引誘投資者回到市場。 近兩年來，風(fēng)險投資一季度首次突破50億美元，14家網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司注冊上市。That's not to say this is 1996 redux. The Net is no secret, and most established players know exactly what'

14、;s coming. Instead of burying their heads in the sand, they're devising strategies to strike back against Net insurgents. In some cases, the incumbents simply plan to co-opt the upstarts' technology. Consider Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ ). Once CEO Ivan G. Seidenberg saw Vonage Holdings

15、Corp. and other newcomers start using Net technology to offer phone services for a third less than existing rates, he played his trump card: He said the New York phone giant would invest $2 billion in Net technology over the next two years. "It's a dynamic process, where you get new players

16、, but old players also can reinvent themselves," says Paul Saffo, research director at Institute for the Future, a Silicon Valley think tank. "Only the dumbest players die in this process."這并不是說這是1996年的減速。 網(wǎng)絡(luò)并不是秘密，大多數(shù)老牌玩家都知道到底會發(fā)生什么。 他們不是把頭埋在沙子里，而是制定反擊網(wǎng)絡(luò)武裝分子的策略。 在某些情況下，在職者只是計劃選擇新興的技術(shù)。

17、考慮Verizon Communications Inc.（VZ）。 一旦首席執(zhí)行官Ivan G.Seidenberg看到Vonage控股公司和其他新人開始使用網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)提供的電話服務(wù)，比現(xiàn)有費率低三分之一，他發(fā)揮了他的王牌：他說，紐約電話巨頭將投資20億美元的網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù) 在未來兩年。 硅谷智庫未來研究所（Institute for the Future）的研究主管保羅·薩福（Paul Saffo）說：“這是一個充滿活力的過程，你可以從中獲得新的玩家，但是老玩家也可以自我重塑。 “只有最愚蠢的球員在這個過程中死亡?！蓖扑]精選Still, some incumbents are bent

18、on fighting the digital evolution. Hotel chains are cracking down on franchisees that get too cozy with Web travel agencies. InterContinental Hotels Group is slapping hotel owners with fines and threatening to pull their franchise licenses if they offer special discounts through Net partners. At the

19、 same time, real estate giant Cendant Corp. (CD ) pressed the National Association of Realtors to make it harder for Net upstarts to get home-sale listings. "The time for being scared was 1998. It's not today," says Richard A. Smith, CEO of Cendant's real estate division.盡管如此，一些老牌企

20、業(yè)仍然一心要打擊數(shù)字化進(jìn)程。 酒店連鎖店正在打擊加盟商，與網(wǎng)絡(luò)旅行社變得過于舒適。 洲際酒店集團（InterContinental Hotels Group）正在對酒店業(yè)主進(jìn)行罰款，并威脅要通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)合作伙伴提供特別折扣，以取消特許經(jīng)營許可。 與此同時，房地產(chǎn)巨頭Cendant Corp.（CD）迫使全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會（National Association of Realtors）加大了網(wǎng)上新貴的上市銷售難度。 “被嚇到的時間是1998年?，F(xiàn)在不是今天，”Cendant房地產(chǎn)部門首席執(zhí)行官Richard A. Smith說。The tactics may prove ineffective

21、, however. Hotel owners barred from giving Web players discounts may see travelers book rooms across the street at rival hoteliers. And Cendant's parry in real estate is on hold while the Justice Dept. conducts an antitrust probe.但是，這種策略可能無效。 酒店業(yè)主禁止給予網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲者折扣，可能會看到旅客對面的酒店經(jīng)營者在街對面的書房。 而Cendant在房地產(chǎn)方

22、面的招架正在擱置，而司法部則進(jìn)行反壟斷調(diào)查。As the battle is joined, expect another round of productivity gains to cascade through the economy. Many economists have been predicting productivity will slow from its torrid pace of the past few years. But the Web's impact on more industries suggests that productivity gro

23、wth may continue over 3% a year, near its 3.6% average clip of the past five years. Moving to digital check writing is just one example. Write a paper check, and it costs your bank about 30 cents to process. Pay the same bill online, and it's a dime. Online bill payment is exploding: Gartner Inc

24、. estimates that 65 million people paid at least one bill online last year, up 97% from the year before. "The Internet economy is in full swing again," says Mark M. 推薦精選Zandi, chief economist at E Inc.隨著戰(zhàn)斗的加入，預(yù)計新一輪的生產(chǎn)力增長將在整個經(jīng)濟中發(fā)展。 許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家一直預(yù)測，過去幾年來，生產(chǎn)力將放緩。 但是，網(wǎng)絡(luò)對更多行業(yè)的影響表明，生產(chǎn)率的增長速度可能會持續(xù)超過3，接

25、近過去五年平均水平的3.6。 轉(zhuǎn)向數(shù)字檢查寫作只是一個例子。 寫一張紙支票，花費你的銀行大約30美分來處理。 網(wǎng)上支付相同的賬單，這是一毛錢。 在線賬單支付正在爆炸式增長：Gartner公司估計去年有6500萬人至少支付了一個賬單，比前一年上漲了97。 E Inc.首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Mark M. Zandi表示：“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟正在全面展開。As e-biz strikes again, key questions arise: Why these industries? And why now? In the first round of Net disruption, the online pla

26、yers were selling commodities: books, music, or stock trades. Customers didn't need to see, squeeze, or sniff the stuff - all they cared about was price. Today's Net upstarts are pulling together more complex information and boiling it down so consumers can become smarter purchasers of a bro

27、ader array of products and services. In real estate, for instance, zipRealty and others have learned how to use software to show potential home buyers photos and floor plans for scores of potential houses. Because that reduces the agent's work, zipRealty can save consumers 20% to 25% off standar

28、d commissions. In the jewelry biz, Blue Nile offers loads of educational information on diamonds so lovestruck men feel comfortable buying gems based on a collection of independent ratings on color, cut, clarity, and carat size.隨著電子商務(wù)再次爆發(fā)，關(guān)鍵問題出現(xiàn)了：為什么這些行業(yè)？ 為什么呢？ 在網(wǎng)絡(luò)中斷的第一輪，在線玩家正在銷售商品：書籍，音樂或股票交易。 顧客不需要

29、看，擠壓或嗅聞這些東西 - 他們所關(guān)心的只是價格。 今天的網(wǎng)絡(luò)新貴將更復(fù)雜的信息匯集在一起，使消費者可以成為更廣泛的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的更聰明的購買者。 例如在房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，ZipRealty等人已經(jīng)學(xué)會了如何使用軟件來展示潛在的購房者照片和潛在房屋的平面圖。 由于減少了代理商的工作，zipRealty可以為消費者節(jié)省20到25的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)傭金。 推薦精選在珠寶商店中，Blue Nile提供大量有關(guān)鉆石的教育信息，讓愛好男性的顧客可以根據(jù)顏色，切割，凈度和克拉等尺寸的獨立評分收集寶石。Broadband has been instrumental in the Net's advance, too.

30、A critical mass of people around the world now have high-speed Net access, including 27 million U.S. households. That means consumers can handle the huge loads of information dished up by the second wave of online players. Lickety-split Net links let them browse through dozens of photos of hotel roo

31、ms, check out a variety of gold necklaces, or take virtual tours of scores of homes for sale. Speedy Net connections also have made it easier for programmers around the world to cooperate in developing new open-source software, which is changing the economics of the $200 billion software market.寬帶也在

32、網(wǎng)絡(luò)的推進(jìn)中發(fā)揮了作用。 目前全球有很多人擁有高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)接入，其中包括2700萬美國家庭。 這意味著消費者可以處理第二波在線玩家拋出的大量信息。 舔分裂網(wǎng)絡(luò)鏈接讓他們?yōu)g覽數(shù)十張酒店房間的照片，檢查各種金項鏈，或虛擬旅游幾十個房屋出售。 快速的網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接也使世界各地的程序員更容易合作開發(fā)新的開源軟件，這正在改變2000億美元軟件市場的經(jīng)濟效益。The industries under assault have other more subtle characteristics in common, as well. Several, including jewelry and hotels, hav

33、e long supply chains with many middlemen, each of whom takes a cut of the profits, driving up retail prices. A South African white diamond can pass through five different hands, including rough-diamond brokers, cutters, and jewelry and diamond wholesalers. Blue Nile connects over the Internet to its key suppliers, who buy their stones directly from South Africa's powerful DeBeers Consolidated Mines Ltd. That eliminates three middlemen or more. &