飛輪電池生產(chǎn)計劃的制定

1、精選優(yōu)質(zhì)文檔-傾情為你奉上飛輪電池生產(chǎn)計劃的制定1. 市場需求預(yù)測2. 實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析3. 生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析和比較4. 制定綜合生產(chǎn)計劃5. 生產(chǎn)能力的粗平衡6. 制定主生產(chǎn)計劃7. 制定MRP,CRP8. 生產(chǎn)能力的精平衡9. 零件工序卡編制10. 產(chǎn)品裝配工序卡編制1.市場需求預(yù)測（Market forecast）實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 4Year 19182421Year 210202723Year 311222926根據(jù)給出的數(shù)據(jù)，選擇一種模型來預(yù)測下一年的市場需求量，屬于長期預(yù)。從給出的數(shù)據(jù)分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市場需求量比較

2、接近而同一年份的不同月份之間存在較大的差異，市場需求量與時間季節(jié)因素有關(guān)。方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression的模型來進(jìn)行市場預(yù)測。預(yù)測結(jié)果如下： Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) YEAR SEASON FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 4 1 11.458 10.910 12.006 4 2 23.364 22.268 24.460 4 3 31.750 30.289 33.212 4 4 28.305 27.026 29.584誤差分析 R = 0.942 R-SQUARE = 0

3、.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL INDEX (4)

4、= 1.167預(yù)測的誤差在合理的范圍內(nèi)，預(yù)測結(jié)果如下：Month1234Demand forecast12243229方案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測預(yù)測結(jié)果如下： Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 13 26.091 14.974 37.208 14 27.028 15.911 38.145 15 27.965 16.848 39.082 16 28.902 17.785 40.019誤差分析：R = 0.500 R-SQUARE = 0.2501

5、MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354從預(yù)測結(jié)果可以看出這種預(yù)測方法與過去的數(shù)據(jù)相差很大，因此，兩種方法相比較，第一種預(yù)測誤差精度更高誤差更小，所以經(jīng)過比較我采取第一種預(yù)測方法。2.實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析(Product Process A

6、nalysis)零件代號零件名稱零件材料零件工藝過程生產(chǎn)提前期12345MLF-03外殼Q235-A鍛造車削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔1MLF-05外轉(zhuǎn)子電機(jī)套筒Q235-A鍛造焊接車削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔2MLF-11底板Q235-A鍛造車削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔1MLF-12電器定位板鋁合金鑄造車削銑削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔2MLF-07-03電磁鐵外側(cè)夾緊發(fā)蘭鋁合金鑄造車削精車鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔線切割2MLF-07-04電磁鐵鐵芯DW314-50鍛造1MLF-07-05電磁鐵內(nèi)側(cè)夾緊發(fā)蘭鋁合金鑄造車削精銑鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔精車2MLF-07-06電磁鐵夾緊裝置鋁合金鑄造銑削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔1MLF-09-01盤片45鑄造熱處理車削精車鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔2MLF-09

7、-02磁環(huán)電工純鐵模鍛車削銑削1MLF-09-03壓環(huán)45鑄造車削銑削鉆孔、擴(kuò)孔23.生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析與比較(Alternative Plans Comparison)Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生產(chǎn)28臺。首先,計算計劃一年雇用、解雇的工人數(shù)量和在這一年的平均庫存。1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hir

8、edWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Matching demand11212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112Inventory adding or subtraction Beginning inventoryEnding inventoryAverage inventory per monthAverage inventory per year1210221616.8750222222(8)221418(5)1

9、4911.500000000000000000然后,計算兩種方案的成本： 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Aggregate planTotal annual number of workers hiredTotal annual number of workers laid offAverage annual inventoryAnnual hiring and layoff costAnnual inventory carrying costTotal annual subtraction costTotal annual incremental operating costLevel capa

10、city01816.87510805332.506412.5Matching demand4854037200(4+1)*180012720備注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matching demand生產(chǎn)計劃中第三月和第四月的需求量超過了本廠的最大生產(chǎn)能力，如若要滿足要求需要采用外協(xié)或者加班的方式解決。如果采用外協(xié)第三月份有32-28=4臺需要外協(xié)，第四月份有29-28=1臺需要外協(xié)?？偟腃ost=（4+1）*1800=9000再考慮到工人工資，總的費(fèi)用如下：Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*

11、4*2*200=.5Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=相差的費(fèi)用Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity =-.5=1507.5。 Level capacity比Matching demand的花費(fèi)更少。如果采用加班加班：每臺成本是600*2.5=1500外協(xié)：每臺是1800因?yàn)閷τ趍atching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺5臺，所以兩者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通過外協(xié)和加班兩者的比較可以看出，兩者的費(fèi)用差不多，但考慮到Level capacity

12、的生產(chǎn)方式比Matching demand生產(chǎn)方式更加穩(wěn)定； Level capacity生產(chǎn)方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matching demand的變動更小，有利于和工會之間關(guān)系的維持；在Level capacity生產(chǎn)方式中有8臺的安全庫存可以保證在市場變動時滿足市場需求。綜合以上因素，我選擇Level capacity生產(chǎn)方式。4.制定綜合生產(chǎn)計劃(Aggregate Planning)1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid off

13、Level capacity with inventory11224720182242472003322472004292472005.生產(chǎn)能力粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)生產(chǎn)能力粗平衡Month final assembly hours1234Production24242424Final assembly hours4200420042004200Load(hours)4200420042004200Capacity(hours)4900490049004900生產(chǎn)能力滿足要求，不需要加班或者外協(xié)。6制定主生產(chǎn)計劃(Master Production S

14、chedule)Level Capacity： 主生產(chǎn)計劃Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 41234123412341234Total demand12243229Beginning inventory10222214Required production6666666666666666Ending inventory22221497制定MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning)7.1 MRP制定012數(shù)量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-03

15、3MLF-07-043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091MLF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF-111MLF-12各個零件選擇用Lot For Lot的生產(chǎn)方式，用軟件POM計算可得： * MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5

16、6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0

17、 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size03 1 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6

18、6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Avail

19、able 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6

20、 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available

21、0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0700 1 0 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6S

22、cheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net

23、 Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0703 2 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0

24、0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Availa

25、ble 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 18 18 18 18 18 18 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0704 2 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Req

26、uirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Releases 30 18 18 18 18 18 18 18* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 18 18 18 18 18 18