(簡體)投資方案的比較和選擇

1、SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Engineering Economics-The 3rd LectureDr. Hu HaoShanghai Jiao Tong UniversitySJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！AgendaqReview (15)qS1: Principles and Procedure of Project Evaluation (30)q1st Break (1:45-1:55pm)qS2: Comparing Alternatives Part I (50)q2nd Brea

2、k (2:50-3:00pm)qS3: Comparing Alternatives Part II (60)qS4: Discussions and Make up (30)SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Session 1Principles and Procedure of Project EvaluationSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Principles 1 & 2qPrinciple 1: Develop the alternatives. The choice (decision) i

3、s among alternatives. The alternatives need to be identified and then defined for subsequent analysis.qPrinciple 2: Focus on the differences. Only the differences in expected future outcomes among the alternatives are relevant to their comparison and should be considered in the decision.SJTU股票配資軟件，1

4、8950897888。外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Principles 3 & 4qPrinciple 3: Use a consistent viewpoint. The prospective outcomes of the alternatives, economic and other, should be consistently developed from a defined viewpoint (perspective).qPrinciple 4: Use a common unit of measure. Using a common unit of measuremen

5、t to enumerate as many of the prospective outcomes as possible will make easier the analysis and comparisons of the alternatives.SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Principles 5 & 6qPrinciple 5: Consider all relevant criteria. Selection of a preferred alternative (decision making) requires the us

6、e of a criterion (or criteria). The decision process should consider the outcomes enumerated in the monetary unit and those expressed in some other unit of measurement or make explicit in a descriptive manner.qPrinciple 6: Make uncertainty explicit. Uncertainty is inherent in projecting (or estimati

7、ng) the future outcomes of the alternatives and should be recognized in their analysis and comparison.SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Principle 7qRevisit your decision Improved decision making results from an adaptive process; to the extent practicable, initial projected outcomes of the selec

8、ted alternative and actual results achieved should be subsequently compared.SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Analysis Procedure1 . P r o b l e m r e c o g n i t i o n , formulation, and evaluation1. Problem/need definition 2. Problem/need formulation and evaluation.2. Development of the feasib

9、le alternatives.3. Synthesis of possible solutions (alternatives)3. Development of the net cash flow for each alternatives. 4. Selection of a criterion (or criteria).4. Analysis, optimization, and evaluation.5. Analysis and comparison of the alternatives. 6. Selection of the preferred alternative.5.

10、 Specification of preferred alternative. 6. Communication.7. Performance monitoring and post-evaluation of results. SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Session 2Comparing Alternatives-Part I投資方案的比較和選擇投資方案的比較和選擇SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！OutlinesqBasic philosophy for comparing mutually

11、 exclusive alternativesqThe study periodqEquivalent worth methodqRate of return methodqUseful lives different from the study periodqThe capitalized worth methodqMutually exclusive combinations of projectsqComparisons among independent projectsSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！IntroductionqThis

12、lecture addresses Steps 5 and 6 of the 7-step procedureqMutually exclusive alternatives The selection of one of the feasible alternatives excludes the consideration of any other alternatives The mutually exclusive alternatives are of different amounts of capital, different annual revenues and costs

13、and different useful livesSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Basic philosophy for comparing mutually exclusive alternativesqThe choice is one of the feasible alternativesqThe choice must incorporate the fundamental purpose of capital investment (i.e. to obtain at least MARR for each dollar inves

14、ted) qIncrement Capital Policy(投資增額原則）投資增額原則） The alternatives that requires the minimum investment of capital and produces satisfactory functional results will be chosen unless the incremental capital associated with an alternative hanging a larger investment can be justified with respect to its in

15、cremental savings / benefits.SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Basic PolicyqBase alternative Requires the least investment of capital Has a return equal to or greater than the MARRqThree elements of the basic policy Do nothing is a possible alternative The consideration of the differences in ex

16、pected future outcomes among the alternatives Use of MARR as the economic criterion to determine the acceptability of a capital investmentSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Investment and Cost SituationsqInvestment situation Investment alternatives are those with initial (or front-end) capital i

17、nvestments that produce positive cash flows from increased revenue, saving through reduced costs, or both. Example: p. 185qCost situation Cost alternatives are those with all negative cash flow elements except for a possible positive cash flow element from disposal of assets at the end of the projec

18、ts life. Example: p. 186qCannot compare with an infeasible alternative (Ex. 5-1 pp. 187-188)SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！The Study PeriodqThe study (analysis) period, sometimes called planning horizon, is the selected time period over which the mutually exclusive alternatives are comparedq

19、Influencing factors The service time period required The useful life of the shorter-lived alternative The useful life of the longer-lived alternative SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！The Study Period (II)qThree situations Useful life is equal to the study period Useful life is shorter than the

20、 study period Useful life is longer than the study periodqInfluencing factors The service time period required The useful life of the shorter-lived alternative The useful life of the longer-lived alternative SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Two Assumptionsq1. The repeatability assumption The s

21、tudy period is either indefinitely long or equal to a common multiple of the lives of the alternatives The economic consequences that are estimated to happen in an alternatives initial life span will also happen in all succeeding life spans (replacements) Actual situations seldom meet both condition

22、s but the difference is small q2. The co-terminated assumption SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！C1: Useful life equal to the study periodqNo adjustment to the net cash flow is requiredqEquivalent worth methodsqRate of return methodsSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Equivalent worth method

23、sqEquivalent present, annual or future amountsqBased on total investment at i=MARRqSelection Investment alternatives: the one with the greatest positive equivalent worth Cost alternatives: the one with least negative equivalent worthqExample 5-2SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Rate of Return M

24、ethodsqThree Principles Each increment of capital must justify itself by producing a sufficient rate of return on that increment Compare a higher investment alternative against a lower investment alternative only when the latter is acceptable Select the alternative that requires the largest investme

25、nt of capital as long as the incremental investment is justified by benefits that earn at least the MARRSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Inconsistent Ranking Problem qOccurs with incorrect use of rate of return methodsqExample AlternativeIRRPW(10%)A17.4%9,739B16.3%10,131SJTU股票配資軟件

26、外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！qWhen IRRAB=11.4%, PWA=PWBqIRR method assumes reinvestment of cash flows at the calculated rate of return (16.3%, 17.4%)qThe real MARR (MARR=10%) PWab(10%)=$393 The ranking of A and B is consistentqUse of the incremental investment analysis to avoid incorrect ranking of mutually excl

27、usive alternatives when using rate of return methodsSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！The Incremental Investment Analysis ProcedureqP. 197 Figure 5-2SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！qPp. 196-199 Example 5-4qThree common errors of choosing feasible alternatives: With the highest overall IR

28、R on total cash flow With the highest IRR on an incremental investment With the largest investment that has an IRR greater than or equal to the MARRSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！C2: Useful Life Shorter Than the study periodqThe alternatives with a life shorter than the study period will nee

29、d its cash flows adjusted in length to equal to the study periodqThe repeatability assumption The selected study period is assumed infinite or a common multiple of the useful livesqCo-terminated assumption The above period assumption doesnt apply Or costs change in subsequent replacementsqExample 5-

30、7SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！C3: Useful Life Longer Than the study periodqThe repeatability assumption The selected study period is assumed infinite or a common multiple of the useful livesqCo-terminated assumption The above period assumption doesnt applyqThe alternatives with a life long

31、er than the study period will need its cash flows truncated to equal the end of the study periodqOne technique often used is to estimate the net salvage value at that point in time from disposal of assets and to account for associated cash flowqExample 5-9SJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Sessi

32、on 3Comparing Alternatives-Part IISJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Comparison of Alternatives Using the Capitalized Worth MethodqThe Capitalized Worth (CW) Method The determination of the worth of all receipts and/or expenses over an infinite length of time The capitalized cost method if only

33、expenses are consideredSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！qSituations The period of needed service is indefinitely long The common multiple of the lives is very long The repeatability assumption is applicableSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Calculations of CWqThe CW of a perpetual series o

34、f end-of-period uniform payments A P=A(P/A, i%, )=A/I P is called the capital worth of A and is denoted by CWqA series of payments of amount $X at the end of each kth period at i% AW=X(A/F, i%, k) CW=X(A/F, i%, k)/iSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！Defining Mutually Exclusive Investment Alterna

35、tives in Terms of Combinations of ProjectsqThree categories of investment projects Mutually exclusive: at most one project out of the group can be chosen Independent: the choice of a project is independent of the choice of any other project in the group, so that all or none of the projects may be se

36、lected or some number in between Contingent: the choice of a project is conditional on the choice of one or more other projectsSJTU股票配資軟件外匯喊單網(wǎng)，職業(yè)操盤手帶你賺錢！qA general approach is to list all investment projects and enumerate all the feasible combinations projectsqThe combinations of projects will be mutually exclusiveqThe net cash flow of each combination Is de