漫談金融全球化課件

1、漫談金融全球化魏尚進(jìn)純屬個人觀點(diǎn), 言責(zé)自負(fù)文獻(xiàn)小結(jié):金融全球化, 理論上好處一條接一條;費(fèi)盡吃奶盡, 實(shí)證的效果不妙也不巧.綜述文章:Prasad, Rogoff, Wei, and Kose, IMF, 2003Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei, 2005 (JEL?)TurkeyIndiaU.S.A.ChinaBenefits of Financial Integration: TheoryDirect ChannelsEfficient international allocation of capitalFor capital-poor economiesl

2、ower cost of capital, higher investmentSpillovers of technological and managerial expertiseBenefits of Financial Integration: TheoryIndirect ChannelsDomestic financial sector developmentSpecializationDisciplining device for macro policiesBenefits of Financial Integration: TheoryEffects on Volatility

3、No strong implication for output volatilityConsumption smoothing via international risk sharing= Lower consumption volatilityGrowth Benefits of Financial Integration: EvidenceAbout 20 studies of growth effectsNo effect: 4Mixed:12Positive: 4閾值效應(yīng) (Threshold Effect):政府缺良治, 金融開放則危機(jī)增發(fā)百姓更吃苦;政府有良治, 金融開放則投資

4、增加生活有出路.例子:新加坡, 香港阿根廷, 剛果文獻(xiàn): Wei, 2000; Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan and Volosovych, 2003;Klein, 2005; Chinn and Ito, 2005.組合效應(yīng) (Composition Effect):國際銀行貸款兩刃刀, 危機(jī)增加效率也難保;國際直接投資效果好, 資本增加風(fēng)險又減少.例子: 中國 vs. 阿根廷文獻(xiàn): Frankel and Rose; Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei; Frankel and Wei.The composition hypothesisNot all

5、 capital flows are equalFDI and maybe portfolio inflow are more beneficial to growth than debtDesoto and Reisen 2001; Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad, 2005, JFEFDI is also less volatile than international bank loans - More reliance on bank loans increases vulnerability to currency crashes Frankel and

6、Rose, 1996; Frankel and Wei, 2005Volatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Standard Deviation)FDI/GDP Loan/GDPVolatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Coefficient of Variation)FDI/GDP Loan/GDP閾值效應(yīng) 與組合效應(yīng):文獻(xiàn)中提出為兩個獨(dú)立的解釋兩者是否可能是同一硬幣的兩面?魏尚進(jìn) (2000, 2001); 魏尚進(jìn)與武屹 (

7、2002)Corruption is linked to a composition of capital inflows away from FDI and towards bank loans.Feira and Mauro (2005): Higher institutional quality - higher share of “equity-like” capital flows in total foreign liabilities.反對意見: Albuqurque (2004 JIE): worse credit rating related to more (not les

8、s) FDI/total inflows.即使成立, 怎么知道是因果關(guān)系?迎擊挑戰(zhàn):金融體制與其他政府良治指標(biāo) 對外來資本組合的影響可能不一.尋找工具變量 來確認(rèn)因果關(guān)系.金融體制與其他政府良治指標(biāo) 對外來資本組合的影響可能不一.鞠建東 與 魏尚進(jìn) (2005), Caballero, Farhi, and Gourinchas (2005):Low financial development + Low K/L ratio- inward FDI + capital outflow尋找工具變量 來確認(rèn)因果關(guān)系.需要IV for corruptionIV for financial insti

9、tution腐敗的工具變量:殖民成本 initial mortality of European colonizers殖民過程代價高, 政權(quán)掠奪又殘暴;殖民容易象過橋, 民眾財(cái)產(chǎn)有擔(dān)保.誰先想出? Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson例子:非洲 與 澳洲墨西哥 與 加拿大金融體制的工具變量:法律體系的淵源 (legal origin)英美式的法律體系更多保護(hù)股權(quán)人債權(quán)人利益英美common law, 制約百姓也限當(dāng)權(quán);法西civil law, 表面公平實(shí)偏特權(quán).誰先想出? La Porta, De-silanes, Shleifer & Vishny例子:美國 與 法國墨西哥 與 加拿大注意:Settler mortality and legal origin are not highly correlated.實(shí)證結(jié)果:腐敗越高, FDI 的比重就越低 (外國銀行貸款的比重就越高). 我2000的假說