國際貨幣與金融經(jīng)濟學(xué)英文版ppt課件完整版

1、Chapter 1Keeping Up with a Changing WorldTrade Flows, Capital Flows, and the Balance of PaymentsINTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICSThird EditionJoseph P. DanielsDavid D. VanHooseCopyright South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.2International Economic Integratio

2、nInternational economic integration refers to the extent and strength of real-sector and financial-sector linkages among national economies.Real Sector: The sector of the economy engaged in the production and sale of goods and services.Financial Sector: The sector of the economy where individuals tr

3、ade in financial assets.Though economists tend to measure activity in these two sectors separately, an important point of this chapter is to show that they are linked.3Importance of the Global Market for Goods and ServicesOver the last 35 years, the volume of world trade in goods and services has gr

4、own by almost 6 percent annually. The cumulative effect of this growth is more than a five-fold increase in world trade.As measured by the share of overall real-sector activity, world trade in goods and services has become more important to advanced and developing economies alike.4Growth of World Ex

5、portsSOURCE: International Monetary Fund, Economic Outlook, and authors estimates.During the past thirty years, world trade in goods and services has exhibited positive growth rates for all but two years.5Selected Nations TradeThe global market for goods and services has become more important for in

6、dividual nations. The percentage shown reflects each nations trade as a share of its overall economic activity.SOURCE: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, various issues, and authors estimates.6Growth of Trade and Foreign Exchange Transactions7Cross-Border Transaction in

7、 Bonds and EquitiesIn Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom, international transactions in bonds and equities have grown by more than 3,000 percent, 1000 percent, and 700 percent respectively.SOURCE: Bank for International Settlements, International Financial Statistics, and authors est

8、imates.8Top Twenty Globalized NationsIrelandSwitzerlandSingaporeNetherlandsSwedenFinlandCanadaDenmarkAustriaUnited KingdomNorwayUnited StatesFranceGermanyPortugalCzech RepublicSpainIsraelNew ZealandMalaysiaSource: Foreign Policy9The Top Global CompaniesRanked by Foreign Assets RankCompanyHome Countr

9、yIndustry1VodaphoneUnited KingdomTelecommunication2General ElectricUnited StatesElectrical3ExxonMobileUnited StatesPetroleum4Vivendi UniversalFranceDiversified5General MotorsUnited StatesMotor Vehicles6Royal Dutch/ShellUnited Kingdom / NetherlandsPetroleum7BPUnited KingdomPetroleum8Toyota MotorJapan

10、Motor Vehicles9TelefnicaSpainTelecommunications10FiatItalyMotor Vehicles10TransnationalityAre the activities of the worlds largest firms really spread out globally?A transnationality index measures this.It is calculated by averaging the ratios of Foreign assets to total assetsForeign sales to total

11、salesForeign employees to total empolyees.11An ExampleGeneral Electric, a U.S. TNC, ranks second on the list of the worlds largest non-financial TCS based on foreign assets.Foreign assets are 159,188, total assets 437,006, foreign sales 49,528, total sales 129,853, foreign employment 145,000 and tot

12、al employment 313,000.Its TNI is only 40.3 and it does not appear on the list of the top ten TNCs by TNI. 12Calculation13The Top Global CompaniesBased on TransnationalityRankingCompanyHome CountryIndustry1Rio TintoU.K. / AustraliaMining2ThomsonCanadaMedia3ABBSwitzerlandMachinery and Equipment4NestlS

13、witzerlandFood and Beverages5British American TobaccoUnited KingdomTobacco6ElectroluxSwedenElectronic Equipment7InterbrewBelgiumFood and Beverage8Anglo AmericanUnited KingdomMining9AstrazenecaUnited KingdomPharmaceuticals10Phillips ElectronicsNetherlandsElectronic Equipment14Balance of Payments Acco

14、untingTo understand how economists measure international transactions in the real and financial sectors of an economy, and how these sectors are linked, we turn to the balance of payments (BOP) accounting system.A system of accounts which is a subset of the National Income and Production Accounts.A

15、double-entry system.Debit Entries: Transactions that generate a payment outflow (e.g., import).Credit Entries: Transactions that generate a payment inflow (e.g., export).15Balance of PaymentsThe current account is the broadest measure of a nations real sector trade.Includes:GoodsServicesIncome Recei

16、pts and PaymentsUnilateral Transfers16Current AccountGoods: Exports and imports of tangible items.Services: Exports and imports of services, for example:Typical business services such as banking and financial services, insurance, and consulting.Tourism17Current AccountIncome Receipts: Includes items

17、 such asInvestment income on US-owned assets abroad.Receipts of income on US direct investment abroad.Government income receiptsIncome Payments: Includes items such asInvestment income on foreign-owned assets in the United States.Payments of income on foreign direct investment in the United StatesUS

18、 Government income payments18Current AccountUnilateral Transfers: Includes items such as:Government grants abroadPrivate remittancesPrivate grants abroadThe current account balance is the sum of the debit and credit entries in the accounts just described.A current account deficit occurs when the sum

19、 of the debit entries exceeds the sum of the credit entries. A current account surplus occurs when the sum of the credit entries exceeds the sum of the debit entries.19US Current Account (2003)20Balance of PaymentsThe Financial SectorThe Capital and Financial Account tabulates the flows of financial

20、 assets between domestic residents and foreign residents and governments.The private capital account tabulates flows among private domestic residents and foreign private residents. 21The Capital AccountThe Capital and financial Account:Records international transactions in the financial sector.Inclu

21、des portfolio and foreign direct investment.Includes changes in banks and brokers cash deposits that arise from international transactions.The main accounts are:US-Owned Assets Abroad: Increase or decrease in US ownership of foreign financial assets.Foreign-Owned Assets in the US: Increase or decrea

22、se in foreign ownership of domestic assets.Reserve Assets: Primarily the assets of central banks.22Portfolio and Foreign Direct InvestmentPortfolio Investment: Individual or business purchase of stocks, bond, or other financial assets or deposits. (An income strategy)Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

23、 Purchase of financial assets that results in a 10 percent or greater ownership share. (A financial control strategy)23Capital and Financial Account24The Balance of PaymentsThe Statistical DiscrepancyThe sum of the debit and credit entries in all of the BOP should total zero.Of course there are erro

24、rs and omissions resulting in a non-zero balance. An offsetting entry to this non-zero balance is made in the statistical discrepancy account.In this way, the total of the debit and credit entries equals zero.25BOP ExamplesU.S. company imports an automobile valued at $50,000GoodsServicesIncomePaymen

25、ts and ReceiptsUTCapitalDebits(imports)-50,000Credits(exports)50,00026BOP Examples U.S. government sends $1 million in humanitarian supplies to AfghanistanGoodsServicesIncome Payments and ReceiptsUTCapital Debits(imports)-1 millionCredits(exports)1 million27BOP Examples U.S. resident buys a UK Tbill

26、 equivalent in value to $1,000GoodsServicesIncome Payments and ReceiptsUTCapital Debits(imports)-1,000Credits(exports)1,00028BOP Examples U.S. resident receives $100 in interest on a foreign asset they ownGoodsServicesIncome Payments and ReceiptsUTCapital Debits(imports)-100Credits(exports)10029BOP

27、Examples A Marquette University student goes to Mexico on break and spends $500GoodsServicesIncome Payments and ReceiptsUTCapital Debits(imports)-500Credits(exports)50030BOP Examples TotalGoodsServicesIncome Payments and ReceiptsUTCapitalDebits(imports)-50,000-500-1 mil-1,000-100Credits(exports)1 mi

28、ll1001,00050,000500Current Account-50,400Capital Account50,40031Net Creditor and Net Debtor StatusA net creditor is a nation whose total claims on foreign residents exceed the total claims of foreign residents on the residents of the domestic nation.A net debtor is a nation whose total claims on for

29、eign residents are less than the total claims of foreign residents on the residents of the domestic nation.It is not necessarily good nor bad to be either a net debtor or net creditor.32The United States as a Net DebtorThe United States has been a net debtor at various times in its history. The Unit

30、ed States was a net debtor in the late 1800s.SOURCE: Data from Economic Review of the federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.33The Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital AccountExpenditures Approach to National IncomeNational income is the sum of expenditures in the following categori

31、es; consumer expenditures, private investment expenditures, government expenditures, and net export expenditures,y= c + ip + g + (x-m) Let the current account, ca equalca = (x m)Theny=c + ip + g + ca34The Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital AccountIncome Approach Income has thre

32、e possible uses; it can be spent on current consumption, it can be saved (private saving), and we pay taxes to the governmenty= c + sp + tBecause both approaches equal national income, we can set the two identities equal:c + sp + t = c +ip + g + caor, sp ip (g - t) = ca35The Relationship Between the

33、 Current Account and the Capital AccountPrivate SavingPrivate saving can be used to purchase three types of assets, domestic private investment, government debt (g t) or to accumulate foreign assets (fa), sp = ip + (g t) + fa where fa is the (net) accumulation of foreign assets (domestic residents p

34、urchases of foreign assets in excess of foreign residents purchases of domestic assets).Then, by rearrangementsp ip (g t) = fa36The Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital AccountPutting the two together:ca = sp ip (g t) = faIn words, private domestic saving less private domestic in

35、vestment less the fiscal balance (government saving) equals the current account balance, which also equals the (net) accumulation of foreign assets. 37An Example of the Relationship Between the Current Account and the Capital AccountUsing the equality we derived, ca = sp ip (g t) = faSuppose a natio

36、ns private saving rate is 5.2 percent of its total output, its private investment rate is 7.3 percent, and its fiscal budget deficit is 3.3 percent ca = fa = 5.2 7.3 3.3 = -5.4.In words, this nations residents must borrow from abroad (fa = -5.4) to finance their investment expenditures, resulting in

37、 a current account deficit in the amount of 5.4 percent of total output.Chapter 2The Market for Foreign ExchangeINTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICSThird EditionJoseph P. DanielsDavid D. VanHooseCopyright South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.The Foreign Exchan

38、ge MarketExchange RateThe value of one currency relative to another currency as the number of units of one currency required to purchase one unit of the other currency.Foreign-Currency-Denominated Financial InstrumentA financial asset, such as a bond, a stock, or a bank deposit, whose value is denom

39、inated in the currency of another nation.39Spot Market CharacteristicsIt is the oldest and largest financial market in the world:Has no central trading floor where buyers and sellers meet.Is open twenty-four hours a day, except for short gaps on weekends.The spot market is a market for immediate del

40、ivery (2 to 3 days).Primarily an interbank market, which is the trading of foreign-currency-denominated deposits between large banks.Global banks account for about two-thirds of the market volume, while foreign exchange brokers and dealers account for approximately 20 percent.Approximately $US1.4 -

41、1.6 trillion daily in global transactions.40A Foreign Exchange Transaction Toshiba receives a dollar denominated payment from Best Buy, which they present to Fuji Bank.To exchange the dollar payment for the yen equivalent, Fuji Bank may contact another bank, such as Citigroup, or contact a FX broker

42、.41Currency Trading TablesTypical FX tables in a daily business publication provide spot and forward rates. US $ equivalent or US $ per currency is the dollar price of a unit of foreign currency (eg., $/).Currency per US $ is the foreign currency price of one US dollar (eg., /$).42Some Additional Te

43、rminology:Direct - Indirect QuotesDirect quote is the home currency price of a foreign currency.Indirect quote is the foreign currency price of the home currency.43Appreciating and Depreciating CurrenciesA currency that has lost value relative to another currency is said to have depreciated.A curren

44、cy that has gained value relative to another currency is said to have appreciated.These terms relate to the market process and are different from devaluation and revaluation (Chapter 3).44Appreciating and Depreciating CurrenciesWe use the percentage change formula to calculate the amount of apprecia

45、tion or depreciation.Example, suppose on Monday the Mexican peso traded at 11.3855 MXN/USD, whereas on Tuesday it traded at 11.1245 MXN/USD.The peso has appreciated, as it now takes fewer pesos to purchase each dollar.The amount of appreciation is:(11.1245 11.3855)/11.3855 100 = -2.29%45Cross-Rates:

46、 Unobserved RatesA cross-rate is an unobserved rate that is calculated from two observed rates.For example, the spot rate for the Canadian dollar is 1.3176 C$/$, and the spot rate on the euro is 1.2153 $/. What is the Canadian dollar price of the euro (C$/)?Note that (C$/$)($/) = C$/.In this example

47、, (1.3176) (1.2153) = 1.6013 C$/.46Bid - Ask SpreadsThe bid is the price the bank is willing to pay for the currency, e.g., 1.2148 $/ is the bid on the euro in terms of the dollar.The ask is what the bank is willing to sell the currency for, e.g. 1.2158 $/, is the ask on the euro in terms of the dol

48、lar.The typical rate quoted in a daily publication is the midpoint of these two values, e.g., 1.2153.47Bid - Ask Spread and MarginThe bid - ask spread of a currency reflects, in general, the cost of transacting in that currency.It is calculated as the difference between the ask and the bid. For exam

49、ple, 1.2158 1.2148 = 0.001.The bid - ask spread can be converted into a percent to compare the cost of transacting among a number of currencies. The margin is calculated as the spread as a percent of the ask.(Ask - Bid)/Ask * 100Example, (1.2158 1.2148)/1.2158 * 100 = 0.082%.48Real Exchange RatesRea

50、l MeasuresNominal variables, such as an exchange rate, do not consider changes in prices over time.Real variables, on the other hand, compensate for price changes.A real exchange rate, therefore, accounts for relative price changes, or in other words, for differences in inflation between the two nat

51、ions.49Real Exchange RatesA nominal exchange rate indicates the rate of exchange between one nations currency with the currency of another nation.Real exchange rates indicate the purchasing power of a nations residents for foreign goods and services relative to their purchasing power for domestic go

52、ods and services.A real exchange rate is an index. Hence, we compare its value for one period relative to its value in another period, or the change in the index from one period to another.50Real Exchange RatesAn ExampleIn 1990 the spot rate between the dollar and the peso was 2.9454 (MXN/$).In 1995

53、 the rate was 7.6425.Hence, the peso depreciated relative to the dollar by 159.5 percent (7.6425-2.9454)/2.9454*100.Based on this alone, the purchasing power of US residents for Mexican goods and services (relative to US goods and services) rose by 159 percent.51Example: ContinuedIn 1990 the Mexican

54、 CPI was 100 and the US CPI was 100. In 1995, the CPIs were 224.5 and 116.8 respectively.Based on this, Mexican prices rose 124.5 percent while US prices rose 16.8 percent, a 107.7 difference.Since the prices of Mexican goods and services rose faster than the prices of US goods and services, there w

55、as a decline in purchasing power over Mexican goods and services relative to the purchasing power over US goods and services.52Combining the Two EffectsA real exchange rate combines these two effects - the gain in purchasing power of US residents due to the nominal depreciation of the peso and the d

56、ecline in relative purchasing power due to Mexican prices rising at a faster rate than US prices.To construct a real exchange rate, the spot rate, as it is quoted here, is multiplied by the ratio of the US CPI to the Mexican CPI.(MXN/$) (CPIUS/CPIMX)53Combining the Two Effects1990 Real Rate = 2.9454

57、 x (100/100) = 2.9454.1995 Real Rate = 7.6425 x (116.8/224.5) = 3.9761.The real depreciation of the peso was34.99 percent.54ConclusionThe nominal exchange rate change resulted in a 159.5 percent gain in the purchasing power of Mexican goods and services for US residents.The difference in price chang

58、es resulted in a 107.7 percent loss of purchasing power of Mexican goods and services relative to US goods and services for US residents.Note how the 159.5 percent gain was partially offset by the 107.7 loss, resulting in an overall 35 percent gain in purchasing power.55Effective Exchange RatesOn an

59、y given day, a currency may appreciate in value relative to some currencies while depreciating in value against others.An effective exchange rate is a measure of the weighted-average value of a currency relative to a select group of currencies.Thus, it is a guide to the general value of the currency

60、.56Weighted Average ValueTo construct an EER, we must first pick a set of currencies we are most interested in. Next, we must assign relative weights. In the following example, we weight the currency according to the countrys importance as a trading partner.57WeightsSuppose that of all the trade of