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11、72798193:=”fi 0fl92016$2018$2017$fi%fl9fifi91() fi91()1.371.38) fi91.391.42 fi91()1.261.2212.651.311.345fi90)(fly)4.554.695.005.400.06fifi90)3.803.904.575.05fi90)1210.001200.001234.001273.00fi9(fly)1.301.501.501.80fi%fi% fl943.8044.4048.0050.0155.00(fly)(By)1.2013:fi9 fi $y$*13:fi9 fi $y$*:”%5fi%fif

12、l9.flfi: 7+,.$fi fi $fl: fi . . fi 17fifiIfi50A, fl$fi12.8%; CAGR 12.0%fYA:K:Wind fi $y$27K:Wind fi $y$2 :($ )7K: fi $y$27K: fi $y$210%10%12%13%7%9%6%4%9%7%5%4%37%36%32%30%16%22%21%0%100% 2010201120122013201420152016G FfiV$fi9 W flX 1fl+$fi T*$9X%fl605040302010020072008200920102011201220132014201520

13、162017 : fi $ $CAGRfi12.0%fifiIA(A)fl-5%10% 50%5%0%25%20%15%4030201002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20157K:Wind fi $y$ 2 :fl$fi$ $CAGR11.0%fiIK:Wind fi $y$2 : bdfid Jd8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%1.401.351.301.251.202008200920102011201220132014201520162017 : $ $CAGR0.5%)#I7(A)fl25%20%15%10%5%0%0.00.530%1.525%20%1.015%

14、10%5%0%20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 : $ $CAGRfi12.3%#I7(A)fl1fi : ) fi+ $q, $ $ 10% : . . $ fiA:fiz( , fl fi23$ : . . $ :. $ 5 fi,$ fifl )+:. fi ,$,3 fl fl:. fi ;, ( 2fl:3, 0 flfi fl :1flfl 7Cfi=;qflKB&Q2017.1.151$flfiflfifi) w$fiF:Q2016.2.1fififi$fi8fiflxfi,fi fiflfl1.6fly;ififlSfl

15、eflflA#,fi ABL38;Vfl$310(B $fiflxfiw$fifi16y;fi ABL21; fiflL8000yQ=2015.3.20Q2012.11.1w$fl2011.4.20fi w$flw$fifi18yfiflflfi$fiflKfifi; ABfi18;fifi fiflfi5000y x:$Bm7fi7$y$gx:7fi7$y$gx:7fi7$y$g 7?:2D 3flfi)5,?$ fi?L$:+ fiflfi700y,%$40%Ofl;, fi fl1500$ffl,+fi fi300$f,$flfifl3: p fi$,+25$ Efifl fl80%;+

16、fi Bn$ fl $ Etfiflfi fifl$80%fi,$flfi$fiH:fl 7:17Sfi A80y,flLfi32%,$fi w$ffifl;fiw$:4$147$ofifluflifi, Sz-fl fi fi fiflw$,Sfififi, fifl ; 7:162$fiwB$fiy, fi;300$fi:2015$fi 7!I $fl9fl;32%40%30%20%10%0%-10%50001500100019851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017E2019E2021E2023E

17、2025E A(y)flL32%16%14%8%10%12%8%flfl fi$ $fly$A$%y !fi:$ ) fi fi,($ ) fifl*flfi:17$ zN).fifiy 5fi66%.44%y158.25,flzfi$,xR5fflflflflflflT24fi: fl fl4C; pCqm3ffi5fifi pP$fiY,N)$K5fifi,(fl$:fiflfi,$ fi$xN)fl$?;fifl$fi,fij$ffizz-,fi$f15.05yNfif51%,tfifi$gY(176$30$,fi)f;fi1;! fi,gYu$,f01$ 2fi;fi,fifi$ ;f

18、ififfi :17$ ) #157.64,fl fi65.6% :17$# ! fi,9.11,fl fi70.6%Qi:zz-&fi&$y$G100%80%60%40%20%0%0501001502002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$ 2zN(y) zN5fifi(y)fi5120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%70605040302010020122013201420152016Qi:zz-&fi&$y$G2017CzN(y) zN5Cfi(y)fi5A!=:17$fi$- ,1Qflfi fiRe

19、vPAR (3C $)OCC(fl)ADR( fi$fl)X16.17$A!8;-y$38;?:Wind fi $30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017OCCADRRevPar500040003000200010000200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016fi #; yfl(y) & : A! E y$38;?:STR fi $y$316%50%14%40%12%30%10%20%8%10%6%0%4%-10%2%-20%0%2011 201

20、2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Zfi& I&= 5:$= Hfi+G,$0= Dfl$A)= fi,Hfi+G:17fi$Cd435963,fl%fi48.9%, Z % q15-16 JLD,O fifl6flfi4fiflR,18$fiMy Tfi21.0%11.9% 11.7%,CR344.5%q$0= .71fiflfl,$fiflflfl:fid4fiflWfifilf$,$SdEK:nY fi $y$7 :; = $?EK: fi $y$7EK:z;nY fi $y$7 I:4fifiy 17CR3CR10201534.30%54.90%201636.50%5

21、8.90%201744.10%58.20%201844.51%67.19%0%50%100%4000030000200001000002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620174fl fi9.8%,$fi#afi =cfi$Sd4,4fifi( )$ Sd4fly fi22.7%20.6%13.6%q :$= B fi &$ := B$f i5fiB$fi4%22.70%20.60%13.55%30%20%10%0%400030002000100009.79%4fifi( )EK:z;nY f

22、i $y$7 : $= B $0= f lefl$ fifl:%fi fi $,fl # 2014201520162017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q4%fi$26753110931095107710671055 701169247755009522054365639 fl72.4%76.1%81.4%82.1%82.9%83.6%84.2% !fi$ 532824915104311961262 937103438213909397640244289$ fl0.5%1.4%14.0%15.0%16.6%18.4%22.7%OCC(%)80.6%76.9%75.7%71.5%79.8%

23、83.8%77.1%ADR182.42183.65184.84180.07188.26197.53191RevPar147.05141.17139.83128.82150.27165.49147 fi968222358686104629765036694fi$9149299599549429421070 1695199322882293237124482484 fl65.0%68.2%70.5%70.6%67.0%72.2%69.9% !fi$ 41121220228254294406 2568279229472926294429502973$ fl1.6%4.1%6.8%7.0%7.2%8.

24、7%11.5%OCC(%)83.6%83.2%86.1%81.8%86.1%89.5%83.7%ADR165162174162174188177RevPar138134150133150168148 fi2609292232473247331333903554flfi$611616624620686684671 1384214726452716285529723075 fl69.4%77.7%80.9%81.4%80.6%81.3%82.1% !fi$ 176310456484648717772 1819245328132852289329392974$ fl8.8%11.2%13.9%14.

25、5%18.3%19.6%20.6%OCC(%)89.0%85.3%84.9%87.0%93.0%96.0%88.0%ADR179179185175189202196RevPar159153157151175193172 fi1995276332693336354136563746 :zz fi $y$ :$ # fl . $. fifl+-/:STRWIND, fi $y$1 flfi:fi( 1 , fi1 fifi !:($1 $ fi&fi $fi+ -/:BloombergSTR fi $ y$2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620

26、17GDP 5.8%4.5%1.7%-2.0%3.8%3.7%4.1%3.3%4.4%4.0%2.8%2.3%RevPAR 7.59%6.18%-1.73%-16.56%5.14%8.13%6.73%5.40%8.14%5.91%3.20%3.00%fi6.24%7.17%-1.13%-13.12%3.85%8.31%5.17%6.26%4.78%6.13%2.95%fiKG8.90%6.92%-10.79%-26.08%7.64%15.54%6.43%12.36%2.44%16.23%6.78%;C%F JL23.6%-26.6%-45.9%75.0%48.3%-7.2%29.1%32.2%

27、23.2%-12.7%18.6%47%I C%+JL!22.56%-27.86%-62.92%61.30%41.03%-15.19%9.37%24.28%27.89%-27.89%17.64%1.71%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%1996199820002002200420062008201020122014201610%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%+-/:STRWIND, fi $y$19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620171 ,q

28、&fl$:6C%: RevPARqfififi &fi,$,Revpar19977 20176GDPfi4.2%,C% Revparfi3.1%(fi2.7%), RevPAR 4fiGDP1.3 N1 , !fi :$20Revpar5 fi84fi,:E842N :( 1 &+ GDP3$:( 1 RevPar$flGDP fi fifl3OCC ADR RevPAR GDP RevPAR GDP ELR:zz&!fi!$y$=ELR:STR!fi!$y$= :2018$6!; fl!fi $fiflCo9 ,Aac,17 i F, f2.8%q,wfi,Afl8%fi,20181$ ,2

29、.7%,wfi,12.2%fi;$:20184fifi fl9fi650-700,fi ,700,fifi fl9450-550,$v)$fifl9Epfl1500-1800,W $v)o9p1.3flt,flYz5flto 9fl $flRevpar$,fiB fiCi wfiffi,fi, $flfi,Revpar$L2-3$A$gW fio9fiUfl-6-10%qfl5,Revpar1% |$4 L5%|,fi :2012-2018$1$ 6! $fiqfl : 6!.f lfi!%76!flfi: ,;$,fiB fi15%10%5%0%20132014201520162017wfi

30、fl, fl,fl6!A$flfifl9650- 700,700fl9450- 500S_fi65%-70%$y60%-70%$y40%-50%$y5755613983800006000040000200000o9fi E20%15%10%5%0%20122013201420152016ELR:hl!fi!$y$=201770t ?fio9fl$o9v)$fifi9ELR:hl!fi!$y$= :2012$6!; fi4fio9fio9,fl,:$ ,fi$q :17$ $ $ ,0$fi*.6:Wind fi $y$*.6:Wind fi $y$*40%20%0%-20%1500010000

31、500002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ;7(fl) ; ;7(fl) ; 7(fl) .6:Wind fi $y$* :17$fl& $ , $ -50%2011201220132014201520162017fi $:2017$z$ fi;13051fl7,fl5 fi7.0%, ;LO1152.9Jy,fl fi5%X%$ ;fi5.1%, $02+!X& $:2017 ;.fi0.7,fl fi4.0%,18K2$ ;.fi1323fl 7,fl fi14.0%, 02X17;.fi0.61,fl fi10.6%, 02=Xf

32、l;17 02+!,17 ;$ I, fi,? %VT ;$ 8%K F23%X :17$ %,$ , fi$fifiMDH ; fiMD-) ; fiMDHfi; 100%50%0%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%5004003002001000 01020304050607080910111201027(fl7)7 VT 7(fl7)VT flz: fi, 20102011201220132014201520162017 )67.1685.29106.02107.72120.11123.30126.55122.78$fi(fi ) 79.24%26.98%24.31%1.60%

33、11.50%2.66%2.64%-2.98%$!fi(fi )30.4736.1641.2242.3745.3946.8038.7237.76 31.40%18.70%13.98%2.78%7.15%3.10%-17.26%-2.49% fi 10.3515.9321.530.0542.1783.7101.04120.30 33.49%53.89%34.98%39.78%40.32%98.48%20.58%19.19% fi 1.926.473.269.64512.077.1417.1610.1425.2116.558.4418.0374.420.4989.15fi -16.9821.4626

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36、03% fi 8.13%7.92%15.28%7.20%15.44%8.27%16.36%7.88%fi fi -8.77%11.23%8.81%12.18%7.71%14.35%14.89%16.75%14.11%15.78%18.00%16.46% fi 13.24%5.48%13.32%5.80%16.31%6.19%$fi10.30%7.21%11.15%6.36%10.24%5.57%10.41%fi $fi(fi ) fi 0.62%2.95%0.26%2.77%0.29%2.87%0.57%2.91%0.37%2.58%0.40%2.50%0.47%2.43%0.28%1.93%

37、0.68%2.22%fi fi $fi-3.99%1.08%3.84%1.14%3.53%1.28%2.74%1.20%fi$flZfififlfifl(fl10%fi), fi A$)Zfl6,fi3fis$,fi$e;1510$fl,fi$fi($& :fi,“s ,$fl6g,3$flffifl$f$fififfie,Zflfi$ fi,fi$fl fl1.3,fi#16%,Z fiflfi yflfififi$,Ffifl;:fifififlfi,18fi$3fl20-25%$fi, flfiXhf30%fi ;ty;fi20%fi; ,Ffifl$;y fl fififl:q$,fi

38、=fifififfi8$ fi$ ffie, 6fi, Zfififl$ ffi ,fifi3Efl$ffiZ,$;$ Zfi,fi%fififlnfifl$ fls$fi$flfl$flMflflfl,$=fifi$%Z, $fiEI=,fi:fifls =fifi ,OTAOTAfi$Vfi$, 6$fi$,fi;fi$flfiflflflfi,fifififiMP; qfiflfiZ;, flfi16%qffi,$,fiyflfi,; :K6fiyp ,fl;flMfifififiI,fifi$fl#fl: ,fi$q # fl,z:yfl,fi*.;fi $fl 36fi*18fi!

39、5$fiz+fi*4 2/fl%y flfi=3b;600054.SHfifiyfl000888.SZfifiA$002033.SZfiy000430.SZfi$603099.SHfi$fiw603199.SH4fiyzr=3b;603136.SH$zw000978.SZfiflfiyfiyf%fl3b;603869.SHfififiyf600749.SHfiy002159.SZwflb;300144.SZ$fifiyf600138.SH$fi002059.SZfifiyfl600706.SHcfifiyf000610.SZfiy600593.SH$fl_ fifi51%70%42%44%12

40、%63%44%Zi|:zz4.fi.$y$S:flz$flfi$fl:b;fiz 8fis, $fi Mfi70%51%44%63%,fiflM$fl:qvvfi3ffiQ,qfiyfifiQzfiyfi 3=b;fifififlfitfififl,fl$ fi$30$fi$,$4v1000y,%$uTI5TI2000yfi%28.3%,$yb;yflfl1%,$flfiyfl5$:fib;yd fififiyfifl$,fiv$:2017$9 fl fi $ flfi+5:WINDzz ;fi3 fi $y$% 3!:17$fl 3 fifl17$ 3!(fl$ )17$ 16$ 3!(fl

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42、ifi20183fiflflflfiflfififl4$fifi4fififi2019fi?kflfi$?kfl3fi2020fl$o 3fi,%32020$ofl4-5fi$%Ufi2fiq201910$yhfl$,$yfifi2018fiflflflflfl%; fi1200flffi9.5fl2018fiffiRflflfi,fififififiCfi3$fl;qfl201710$fiflfi;fl$1fiq201712$kfifl;fiflfl!fi_fi($fi$fiv$flfi$fi$fi 2fi2021$flfi fi$fifi4.5fi2022fi$fiflflfl%fi 20

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