酒店管理評(píng)測(cè)酒店價(jià)值的評(píng)測(cè)

酒店管理評(píng)測(cè)酒店價(jià)值的評(píng)測(cè)Objectives??????Why

do

we

do

valuations?Why

hotel

are

different

from

any

other

real

estate?What

is

value?Understanding

hotel

valuation

techniquesConclusion:

what

is

important

to

have

in

order

to

produce

a

good

hotel

valuation?ConclusionWhy

do

we

do

valuations?Because:?

companies

in

the

stock‐exchange

market

need

to

update

the

value

of

their

assets

every

year;?

hotel

owners

might

be

going

to

a

bank

to

ask

for

a

loan

offering

the

hotel

as

collateral;?

hotel

investors

might

be

interested

in

purchasing

a

specific

hotel;?

hotel

owners

might

be

willing

to

sell

their

hotel;?

A

company

would

like

to

merge

with

another

company

and

need

to

understand

how

much

capital

they

are

bringing

through

their

assets;?

Many

other

reasons…Why

hotel

are

different

from

any

other

real

estate?We

have

always

been

told

that

the

price

of

an

hotel

is

equal

to

the

price

of

five

little

green

houses…….IT

IS

NOT

TRUE!Why

hotel

are

different

from

any

other

real

estate?OFFICE

=

valued

on

m2

basisRENTED

ON

A

m2

BASISGENERATES

CASH‐FLOW

ON

A

M2

BASIS

RESIDENTIAL

=

valued

on

m2

basisRENTED

ON

A

m2

BASISGENERATES

CASH‐FLOW

ON

A

M2

BASIS

Why

hotel

are

different

from

any

other

real

estate?

Hotels

are

not

rented

on

a

m2

basis

as

they

do

not

generate

cash‐flow

on

a

m2

basis

What

is

the

basis

of

hotel

income

generation?Yotel,

London

Gatwick

(UK)Banfi

Castle,

Tuscany

(Italy)W

Hotel,

Barcelona

(Spain)Why

hotel

are

different

from

any

other

real

estate?Hotels

cash

flow

is

generated

by:RoomsFood&BeverageGym/Spa/HealthCentreMinorOperatingDepartmentWhat

is

a

value?

Open

Market

ValueFair

ValueLikely

Future

Value

Investment

ValueMarket

Value

Residual

Land

ValueCalculation

of

Worth…Mortgage

Landing

Value“What

is

a

value?“Market

Value

is

the

estimated

amount

for

which

aproperty

should

exchange

on

the

date

of

valuationbetween

a

willing

buyer

and

a

willing

seller

in

anarm’s-length

transaction

after

proper

marketingwherein

the

parties

had

each

acted

knowledgeably,prudently

and

without

compulsion.

IVSC1Hotel

valuation

techniques

Fun?

10,000

RuleBasic?

EBITDA

multiplier

?

YieldExpert?

Replacement

Cost?

Sales

Comparables

–

on

a

per

room

basis?

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows

Hotel

valuation

techniques

Fun?

10,000

Rule?Take

the

price

of

a

tin

of

coke

from

the

hotel

mini‐bar

and

multiply

it

for

10,000

Exle?Coke

price

=

4

Euro?Hotel

value

=

40,000

Euro

per

roomHotel

valuation

techniques

Exle?

Coke

price

=

4

Euro?

Hotel

value

=

40,000

Euro

per

roomLimitations?

Price

of

coke

in

mini‐bar

do

not

increase

in

the

same

way

as

hotel

cash

flows

(imagine

a

3

star

and

a

5

star

hotel)?

This

methodology

does

not

take

into

consideration

any

performance

results

for

the

hotel.

If

the

hotel

is

making

or

loosing

money,

room

price

is

the

same.?

DO

NOT

TAKE

IT

TOO

SERIOUSLY!

!Hotel

valuation

techniques

Basic?

EBITDA

multiplier

?

Yield

Hotel

valuation

techniques

Basic?

EBITDA

multiplier

?

Yield?Take

hotel’s

EBITDA

and

multiply

it

by

a

multiplier

in

accordance

to

hotel’s

market,

position,

location,

past

performances,

etcExle?EBITDA

=

2,000,000

US$?Multiplier

=

12?Hotel

Value

=

24,000,000

US$

Hotel

valuation

techniques

Basic?

EBITDA

multiplier

?

Yield?Take

hotel’s

EBITDA

and

divide

it

by

your

expected

yieldExle?EBITDA

=

1,000,000

Euro?Expected

level

of

yield=

7%?Hotel

Value

==

14,285,0001,000,0007%Hotel

valuation

techniques

Expert?

Replacement

Cost?

Sales

Comparables

–

on

a

per

room

basis?

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flowsHotel

valuation

techniques

Expert?

Replacement

Cost

‐

a

ideal

average

purchaser,

having

an

average

level

of

information,

will

very

likely

buy

a

property

at

a

maximum

price

that

is

equivalent

to

the

cost

of

building

a

similar

property

that

features

the

same

level

of

utility?

Sales

Comparables

–

on

a

per

room

basis?

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flowsHotel

valuation

techniques

Expert?

Replacement

Cost

‐

a

ideal

average

purchaser,

having

an

average

level

of

information,

will

very

likely

buy

a

property

at

a

maximum

price

equivalent

to

the

cost

of

building

a

similar

property

that

features

the

same

level

of

utilityExle?

We

need

many

information

such

as:?

Construction

cost

per

m2?

FF&E

?

Year

of

construction?

…Replacement

CostPastToday????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…Replacement

CostPastToday????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…Technology

has

advanced

and

new

building

techniques

makes

building

today

cheaper

than

yesterday.Replacement

CostPastToday????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…Labor

costs

has

changed

drastically

in

the

last

10‐20

years.

This

is

even

more

drastic

in

developing

countries.Replacement

CostPastToday????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…Price

of

furniture

and

fixing

has

reduced

extensively

y

in

the

last

decade.Replacement

Cost

DepreciationPastToday????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…????Construction

costsLabor

costsFF&E…After

taking

all

this

into

account

we

still

have

to

discount

the

result

back

in

time

to

reflect

that

the

hotel

we

are

valuing

is

not

brand

new

(depreciation)Replacement

Cost

Depreciation

If

valuation

methodology

is

this,

how

would

you

value

these?Dunboy

Castle

Resort

,

Cork

(Ireland)Ciragan

Palace

Kempinski,

Istanbul

(Turkey)Lake

Palace

Hotel,

Udaipur(India)Replacement

Cost

–

limitations

Deriving

a

hotel’s

value

by

calculating

the

cost

of

replacing

it

and

deducting

an

allowance

for

cumulative

depreciationUSES?

Easy

to

be

understood?

Useful

for

new

propertiesLIMITATIONS?

Not

always

possible,

especially

for

historical

hotels?

Does

not

reflect

investor

rationale?

Depreciation

can

be

physical,

functional

and/or

externalHotel

valuation

techniques

Expert?

Replacement

Cost?

Sales

Comparables

–

on

a

per

room

basis:

a

potential

standard

buyer,

featuring

a

standard

level

of

information,

will

purchase

a

property

at

a

maximum

price

equivalent

to

the

sale

price

of

a

similar

property

with

the

same

level

of

utility?

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flowsHotel

valuation

techniques

Expert?

Sales

Comparables

–

on

a

per

room

basis:

a

potential

standard

buyer,

featuring

a

standard

level

of

information,

will

purchase

a

property

at

a

maximum

price

equivalent

to

the

sale

price

of

a

similar

property

with

the

same

level

of

utility.Exle?

We

are

willing

to

purchase

the

Hotel

Ritz

in

Paris

?

Category:

5

star

luxury?

161

rooms?

118

rooms?

114,000,000

EuroSale

Comparables?We

investigate

the

market

to

find

which

hotel

has

been

sold

in

Price

per

room

=

627,000

2010

and

at

which

price:

?

Hotel

Lutetia,

5

star

?

231

rooms

?

145,000,000

Euro??Renaissance

Arc

de

Triomphe,

5

star

Price

per

room

=

966,000

Hotel

de

Crillon,

5

star

luxury

?

147

rooms

Price

per

room

=

1,700,000

?

250,000,000

EuroSale

Comparables?Considering

the

above,

how

much

would

you

be

willing

to

pay?Hotel

Lutetia627,000

Renaissance

Arc

de

Triomphe

966,000

Hotel

de

Crillon

1,700,000

Sale

Comparables?Considering

the

above,

how

much

would

you

be

willing

to

pay?????Hotel

de

Crillon

1,700,000

Similar

locationSimilar

category

and

serviceSimilar

number

of

roomsRoom

pricing

(12th

September):

?

Crillon:

680

Euro

?

Ritz:

850

Euro

(25%

higher)?We

should

expect

to

pay

more

/

less

than

Hotel

de

Crillon?

+

25%

=

2,125,000

per

room

161

rooms

=

342,125,000

Price

range:

1,700,000

–

2,125,000Sales

Comparable

–

limitations

USES?

Provides

a

range

of

values?

Compare

hotels

currently

for

sale

to

existing

properties

that

have

been

already

sold

on

the

market

(the

market

has

been

tested

for

theses

levels

of

prices)?

Gives

an

indication

of

real

buyers

motivation

(market‐driven

price)LIMITATIONS?

No

hotel

is

truly

comparable?

Value

is

dependent

on

buyer

motivation

(what

if

special

motivation?)?

Economic

environment

may

differ

(location,

time)?

Reliable

hotel

sales

data

not

always

availableHotel

valuation

techniques

Expert?

Replacement

Cost?

Sales

Comparables

–

on

a

per

room

basis?

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows:

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows

generated

by

the

propertyHotel

valuation

techniques

Expert?

Replacement

Cost?

Sales

Comparables

–

on

a

per

room

basis?

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows:

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows

generated

by

the

propertyConversion

of

the

anticipated

benefits

of

property

ownership

(annual

income)

into

an

estimate

of

present

value“Hotel

valuation

techniques

“Property

with

trading

potential,

such

as

hotels,

fuelstations,

restaurants,

or

the

like,

the

Market

Valueof

which

may

include

assets

other

than

land

andbuildings

alone.

These

properties

are

commonlysold

in

the

market

as

operating

assets

and

withregard

to

their

trading

potential.

Also

called

propertywith

trading

potential.

IVSC

GN

12,

para

3.5Hotel

valuation

techniques

?Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows:

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows

generated

by

the

propertyThis

can

be

done

through

the

basic

methods

explained:

?

Single

Cap

Rate

?

Multipliers

?

Income

Capitalization

–

DCF

ApproachHotel

valuation

techniques

?Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows:

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows

generated

by

the

property.This

can

be

done

through

the

easy

methods

explained:

?

Single

Cap

Rate:

deriving

a

hotel’s

value

by

applying

a

capitalization

rate

to

the

hotel’s

net

income

?

Multipliers

?

Income

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach2010NN.ofrooms100HotelOccupancy67%AverageRoomRate130TotalRevenue4,768,000HouseProfit/GOP2,335,000NetOperatingincome/EBITDA1,478,000CapitalizationRate9%Single

Cap

Rate

–exle?Hotel

Value:

16,400,000

?

Value

per

room:

164,000Single

Cap

Rate

–

limitations

USES?

Lead

to

quick

results?

Used

commonly

and

widely

understoodLIMITATIONS?

It

is

based

on

one

(last)

income

year

only?

Do

not

reflect

propensity

of

income

to

rise

or

fall?

Not

always

reliable

(small

changes

in

the

cap

rate

produce

large

effect

on

value)Hotel

valuation

techniques

?Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows:

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows

generated

by

the

propertyThis

can

be

done

through

the

easy

methods

explained:

?

Single

Cap

Rate

?

Multipliers:

deriving

a

hotel’s

value

by

applying

a

capitalization

rate

to

an

estimate

of

the

hotel’s

s

stabilized

net

income

?

Income

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach20102015NN.ofrooms100100HotelOccupancy67%75%AverageRoomRate130155TotalRevenue4,768,0006,360,000HouseProfit/GOP2,335,0003,180,000NetOperatingincome/EBITDA1,478,0001,910,000CapitalizationRate9%10%Value16,400,00019,100,000ValueperRoom164,000191,000Multiplier

–exleMultiplier

–

limitations

USES?

More

comprehensive

approach

(take

into

account

management

factors)?

Reflects

the

possibility

of

income

to

rise

or

fall?

Used

more

and

more

often

and

understood

more

and

more

widelyLIMITATIONS?

The

valuer

needs

more

details

regarding

hotel

operation

and

management?

The

valuer

needs

a

better

understating

of

the

market

and

the

trading

potential

of

the

asset

in

that

marketHotel

valuation

techniques

?Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows:

Net

Present

Value

of

future

cash

flows

generated

by

the

property???Single

Cap

RateMultipliersIncome

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach:

deriving

a

hotel’s

value

by

applying

an

appropriate

discount

rate

to

a

projection

of

the

hotel’s

estimated

future

cash

flowIncome

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach????

We

assume

a

holding

period

of

10

years

In

each

year

we

estimate

the

trading

potential

of

the

property

In

each

year

we

estimate

the

operational

result

of

the

property

We

assume

a

sale

at

the

end

of

year

10

(Terminal

Asset

Value)$

EBITDAs+Terminal

Asset

Value

timeIncome

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach$EBITDAsTerminal

Asset

ValueYears010…Income

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach$EBITDAsTerminal

Asset

ValueYears010…Income

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach$EBITDAsTerminal

Asset

ValueYears010…Income

Capitalization

–

DCF

Approach$Terminal

Asset

ValueEBITDAs10…Years0Discounting

Factor

Income

Capitalization

–

Discount

FactorDISCOUNT

FACTOR?

Reflect

the

time

value

of

money?

Reflect

the

risk

of

the

investment?WACC

=

Weighted

Average

Cost

of

Capital2011201220132014201520162017201820192020N.

of

rooms

100100100100100100100100100100Hotel

Occupancy

67%69%71%72%72%72%72%72%72%72%Average

Room

Rate

125128131137142148154160166173TotalTl

RRevenue

4.585.3134585313

4.816.6314816631

5.104.9315104931

5.383.9055383905

5.599.2615599261

5.823.2315823231

6.056.1616056161

6.298.4076298407

6.550.3436550343

6.812.3576812357

House

Profit

/

GOP

2.246.803

2.360.149

2.501.416

2.638.113

2.743.638

2.853.383

2.967.519

3.086.219

3.209.668

3.338.055

Net

Operating

income

/

EBITDA

1.421.447

1.493.156

1.582.529

1.669.010

1.735.771

1.805.202

1.877.410

1.952.506

2.030.606

2.111.831

Cap

Rate9,0%Terminal

Asset

Value

23.464.786

Cash‐flow

1.421.447

1.493.156

1.582.529

1.669.010

1.735.771

1.805.202

1.877.410

1.952.506

2.030.606

25.576.616

LTVEquity60%40%Interest6%Equity

Yield22%Income

Capitalization

–ExleYear12345678910WACCValuesay

12,55%

16.561.804

16.600.000

WACC

CalculationWACC

12,55%Income

Capitalization

–

limitations

USES?

Provides

a

better

overview

of

the

property’s

trading

potential?

Reflects

a

value

based

on

future

and

not

on

present

or

past?

Take

into

account

operations

and

management

characteristics?

(possibility

to)

Take

into

account

market‐wide

changes

(Olympic,

Games,

New

Conference

Centres,

etc…)LIMITATIONS?

The

valuer

needs

to

understand

in

depth

the

market

and

the

trading

potential

of

the

asset

in

that

market?

The

valuer

needs

to

understand

in

depth

the

hotel

specific

operation

and

management?

The

valuer

needs

to

be

experienced

of

the

hospitality

sector

in

order

to

estimate

all

cash‐flows

that

are

the

basis

of

the

valuationValuation

data

wish

listWhat

is

important

to

have:?

Historical

data

for

the

local

market?

Historical

data

of

the

property

(Profit

&

Loss

Statements)What

is

important

to

know:?

understanding

of

the

trading

potential

of

the

market

(demand

versus

supply,

new

supply)?

Understating

of

trading

potential

of

the

property

(market

penetration

a

projections

of

market

penetration)?

Understanding

of

the

operational

side

in

order

to

produce

representative

cash

flows?

Understanding

of

the

financial

aspects

(current

LTV,

equity

yield,

etc)

and

of

the

risk

connected

to

this

investmentComparison

with

stock

marketTwo

approaches

to

valuation:Intrinsic

Value:

is

determined

by

the

cash

flows

you

expect

that

asset

to

generate

over

its

life

and

how

uncertain

you

feel

about

these

cash

flows.

Assets

with

high

and

stable

cash

flows

should

worth

more

than

assets

with

low

and

volatile

cash

flows.Relative

Value:

in

relative

valuation