公司理財(cái)原書(shū)第七版第三章財(cái)務(wù)計(jì)劃與增長(zhǎng)課件

CHAPTER3FinancialPlanningandGrowth0CHAPTER3FinancialPlanninganChapterOutline3.1WhatisFinancialPlanning?3.2AFinancialPlanningModel:TheIngredients3.3ThePercentageSalesMethod3.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?3.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModels3.6SummaryandConclusions1ChapterOutline3.1WhatisFin3.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?Itformulatesthemethodbywhichfinancialgoalsaretobeachieved.Therearetwodimensions:ATimeFrameShortrunisprobablyanythinglessthanayear.Longrunisanythingoverthat;usuallytakentobeatwo-yeartofive-yearperiod.ALevelofAggregationEachdivisionandoperationalunitshouldhaveaplan.Asthecapital-budgetinganalysesofeachofthefirm’sdivisionsareaddedup,thefirmaggregatesthesesmallprojectsasabigproject.23.1WhatisCorporateFinancia3.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?ScenarioAnalysisEachdivisionmightbeaskedtopreparethreedifferentplansfortheneartermfuture:AWorstCaseANormalCaseABestCase33.1WhatisCorporateFinanciaWhatWillthePlanningProcessAccomplish?InteractionsTheplanmustmakeexplicitthelinkagesbetweeninvestmentproposalsandthefirm’sfinancingchoices.OptionsTheplanprovidesanopportunityforthefirmtoweighitsvariousoptions.FeasibilityAvoidingSurprisesNobodyplanstofail,butmanyfailtoplan.4WhatWillthePlanningProcess3.2AFinancialPlanningModel:

TheIngredientsSalesforecastProformastatementsAssetrequirementsFinancialrequirementsPlugEconomicassumptions53.2AFinancialPlanningModelSalesForecastAllfinancialplansrequireasalesforecast.Perfectforeknowledgeisimpossiblesincesalesdependontheuncertainfuturestateoftheeconomy.Businessesthatspecializeinmacroeconomicandindustryprojectscanbehelpinestimatingsales.6SalesForecastAllfinancialplProFormaStatementsThefinancialplanwillhaveaforecastbalancesheet,aforecastincomestatement,andaforecastsources-and-uses-of-cashstatement.Thesearecalledproformastatementsorproformas.7ProFormaStatementsThefinancAssetRequirementsThefinancialplanwilldescribeprojectedcapitalspending.Inadditionitwilldiscusstheproposedusesofnetworkingcapital.8AssetRequirementsThefinanciaFinancialRequirementsTheplanwillincludeasectiononfinancingarrangements.Dividendpolicyandcapitalstructurepolicyshouldbeaddressed.Ifnewfundsaretoberaised,theplanshouldconsiderwhatkindsofsecuritiesmustbesoldandwhatmethodsofissuancearemostappropriate.9FinancialRequirementsTheplanPlugCompatibilityacrossvariousgrowthtargetswillusuallyrequireadjustmentinathirdvariable.Supposeafinancialplannerassumesthatsales,costs,andnetincomewillriseatg1.Further,supposethattheplannerdesiresassetsandliabilitiestogrowatadifferentrate,g2.Thesetworatesmaybeincompatibleunlessathirdvariableisadjusted.Forexample,compatibilitymayonlybereachedisoutstandingstockgrowsatathirdrate,g3.Readexampleonp46-4710PlugCompatibilityacrossvarioEconomicAssumptionsTheplanmustexplicitlystatetheeconomicenvironmentinwhichthefirmexpectstoresideoverthelifeoftheplan.Interestrateforecastsarepartoftheplan.11EconomicAssumptionsTheplanmTheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(p50)Expressbalance-sheetitemsthatvarywithsalesasapercentageofsales.Multiplythepercentagesdetermineinstep1byprojectedsalestoobtaintheamountforthefutureperiod.Whennopercentageapplies,simplyinsertthepreviousbalance-sheetfigureintothefutureperiod.12TheStepsinEstimationofProTheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(continued)Presentretainedearnings+Projectednetincome–CashdividendsProjectedretainedearningsAddtheassetaccountstodetermineprojectedassets.Next,addtheliabilitiesandequityaccountstodeterminethetotalfinancing;anydifferenceistheshortfall.Thisequalstheexternalfundsneeded.UsetheplugtofillEFN.ComputerProjectedretainedearningsas13TheStepsinEstimationofProABriefExampleTheRosengartenCorporationisthinkofacquiringanewmachine.Themachinewillincreasesalesfrom$20millionto$22million—10%growth.Thefirmbelievesthatitsassetsandliabilitiesgrowdirectlywithitslevelofsales.Itsprofitmarginonsalesis10%,anditsdividend-payoutratiois50%.Willthefirmbeabletofinancegrowthinsaleswithretainedearningsandforecastincreasesindebt?14ABriefExampleTheRosengartenABriefExampleCurrentBalanceSheetProformaBalanceSheet

(millions)

ExplanationCurrentassets$6(6/20=30%)$6.6(22*30%)30%ofsalesFixedassets$24$26.4120%ofsalesTotalassets$30$33150%ofsalesShort-termdebt$10$1150%ofsalesLong-termdebt$6$6.630%ofsalesCommonstock$4$4ConstantRetainedEarnings$10$11.1(10+2.2-2.2*50%)NetIncomeTotalfinancing$30$32.7

$0.3Fundsneeded(millions)15ABriefExampleCurrentBalanceThePercentageSalesMethod:EFNTheexternalfundsneededfora10%growthinsales:p=Netprofitmargin=0.10d=Dividendpayoutratio=0.5DSales=Projectedchangeinsales=$2million16ThePercentageSalesMethod:EThePercentageSalesMethod:EFNTheexternalfundsneeded17ThePercentageSalesMethod:E3.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?Firmsfrequentlymakegrowthforecastsonexplicitpartoffinancialplanning.Ontheotherhand,thefocusofthiscoursehasbeenonshareholderwealthmaximization,oftenexpressedthroughtheNPVcriterion.Onewaytoreconcilethetwoistothinkofgrowthasanintermediategoalthatleadstohighervalue.Alternatively,ifthefirmiswillingtoacceptnegativeNPVprojectsjusttogrowinsize,theshareholders(butnotnecessarilythemangers)willbeworseoff.183.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?Fir3.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?Thereisalinkagebetweentheabilityofafirmtogrowanditsfinancialpolicywhenthefirmdoesnotissueequity.TheSustainableGrowthRateinSalesisgivenby:193.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?TheChangeinassets=changeindebt+changeinequityCapitalspending=newequity+newdebtT⊿S=S1*p*(1-d)+S1*p*(1-d)*D/ES1=S0+⊿ST=A/S20Changeinassets=changeindebTheSustainable

GrowthRateinSalesT=ratiooftotalassetstosalesp=netprofitmarginonsalesd=dividendpayoutratio21TheSustainable

GrowthRateinEXAMPLEonp52-53p=1650/10,000=0.165d=1,195/1,650=0.724,(1-d)=1-0.724=0.276L=5000/5000=1T=10,000/10,000=1⊿S/S0=0.165*0.276*(1+1)/[1-0.165*0.276*(1+1)]=0.122EXAMPLEonp52-53p=1650/10,00UsesoftheSustainableGrowthRateAcommerciallenderwouldwanttocompareapotentialborrower’sactualgrowthratewiththeirsustainablegrowthrate.Iftheactualgrowthrateismuchhigherthanthesustainablegrowthrate,theborrowerrunstheriskof“growingbroke”andanylendingmustbeviewedasadownpaymentonamuchmorecomprehensivelendingarrangementthanjustoneroundoffinancing.23UsesoftheSustainableGrowthIncreasingtheSustainable

GrowthRateAfirmcandoseveralthingstoincreaseitssustainablegrowthrate:SellnewsharesofstockIncreaseitsrelianceondebtReduceitsdividend-payoutratioIncreaseprofitmarginsDecreaseitsasset-requirementratio24IncreasingtheSustainable

Gro3.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModelsFinancialplanningmodelsdonotindicatewhichfinancialpolicesarethebest.Theyareoftensimplificationsofreality—andtheworldcanchangeinunexpectedways.Withoutsomesortofplan,thefirmmayfinditselfadriftinaseaofchangewithoutarudderforguidance.253.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialSummary&ConclusionsFinancialplanningforcesthefirmtothinkaboutandforecastthefuture.ItinvolvesBuildingacorporatefinancialmodel.Describingdifferentscenariosoffuturedevelopmentfrombesttoworstcase.Usingthemodelstoconstructproformafinancialstatements.Runningthemodelunderdifferentscenarios(sensitivityanalysis).Examiningthefinancialimplicationsofultimatestrategicplans.26Summary&ConclusionsFinancialSummary&ConclusionsCorporatefinancialplanningshouldnotbecomeanendinanofitself.Ifitdoes,itwillprobablyfocusonthewrongthings.Thealternativetofinancialplanningisstumblingintothefuture.27Summary&ConclusionsCorporateMultipleChoice

1.Theprocessofcombiningsmallerprojectsintoalargebudgetforplanningpurposesiscalled A) aggregation. B) consolidation. C) assumption. D) capitalallocation. E) Noneoftheabove.28MultipleChoice1.TheprocessAnswer:A29Answer:A292.Projectedfuturefinancialstatementsarecalled A) plugstatements. B) proformastatements. C) reconciledstatements. D) aggregatedstatements. E) noneoftheabove.302.ProjectedfuturefinancialAnswer:B31Answer:B313.Thepercentageofsalesmethod A) requiresthatallaccountsgrowatthesamerate. B) separatesaccountsthatvarywithsalesandthosethatdonotvarywithsales. C) allowstheanalysttocalculatehowmuchfinancingthefirmwillneedtosupportthepredictedsaleslevel. D) BothAandB. E) BothBandC.323.ThepercentageofsalesmetAnswer:E33Answer:E334.Anexampleofaneconomicassumptionwouldbe A) growthinsales. B) growthinthecapitalspendingrequirement. C) aplugvariable. D) changeininterestrates. E) growthindividends.344.AnexampleofaneconomicaAnswer:D35Answer:D355.Accountsreceivableare$45,000andaredirectlyproportionaltototalsales.Thesalesforecastfornextyearis$125,000,whichrepresentsa5%growthoverthecurrentyear.Theforecastaccountsreceivablewouldbe A) $42,750 B) $45,000 C) $47,250 D) Itisimpossibletocalculatewithoutlastyear'screditsales. E) Noneoftheabove.365.Accountsreceivableare$45Answer:C Rationale: $45,000(1.05)=$47,25037Answer:C376.Financialplanningmodelsfrequentlyassumethatmanyvariablesareproportionalto A) economicgrowth. B) industrygrowth. C) interestrates. D) companysales. E) Noneoftheabove.386.FinancialplanningmodelsfAnswer:D39Answer:D397.Ifforecastednetincomeis$3,600andtheexpecteddividendis$1,098andthetaxrateis34%,whatistheretentionratio? A) .198 B) .30 C) .70 D) .802 E) Noneoftheabove.407.IfforecastednetincomeisAnswer:C Rationale: 1-($1,098/$3,600)=1-.3=.741Answer:C418.Lastyear,RamCompanyreportedthefollowingfinancialdata:Sales=$400,Costs=$200,Taxes=$50,NetIncome=$150,TotalAssets=$1,200,Debt=$600,andEquity=$600.Assetsandcostsareproportionaltosales.Debtisnot.Adividendof$90waspaid,andRamwishestomaintainaconstantpayouttonetincome.Nextyear'ssalesareprojectedtobe$480.Whatareexternalfundsneeded(EFN)? A) $240 B) $132 C) $60 D) $168 E) Noneoftheabove.428.Lastyear,RamCompanyrepoAnswer:DRationale:EFN=($1200/$400*80)-0(80)-(150/400)($480)(1-($90/$150))=$240-$0-$180(1-.6)=$240-$72=$168.Sincedebtdoesnotmoveproportionallywithsales,thesecondpartoftheequationiszero.43Answer:D43QUESTION&PROBLEMS3.4ONP5644QUESTION&PROBLEMS3.4ONP5644a. Usingtheformulafromthebook:

=1(6,400,000)-.4375(6,400,000)-.0625(38,400,000(1-.7)=2,880,00045a. UsingtheformulafromtheNewDebt =ProjectedDebt-CurrentDebt =2,800,000-2,000,000 =$800,00046NewDebt =ProjectedDebt-Cb.ProFormaBalanceSheetOptimalScamCompanyCurrentassets$19,200,000Fixedassets19,200,000Totalassets$38,400,000Currentliabilities$12,000,000Long-termdebt4,800,000Totalliabilities$16,800,000Commonstock(14*1.2)$16,880,000Accumulatedretainedearnings（4+0.6*1.2）4,720,000Totalequity$21,600,000Totalliabilitiesandequity$38,400,00047b.ProFormaBalanceSheetCurC.48C.48d.OptimalScamisfarbelowitsgrowthrateobjective.Cuttingthedividendtozerowillnotbeenough.Itcouldonlyattaina12.5%growthratebyeliminatingthedividend.OptimalScammustincreaseitsassetutilizationand/oritsprofitmarginsubstantiallytobeabletoachieveitsobjectivegrowthrate.Optimalcouldalsoincreaseitsdebtload;thisactionwillincreaseROE.49d.OptimalScamisfarbelowitCHAPTER3FinancialPlanningandGrowth50CHAPTER3FinancialPlanninganChapterOutline3.1WhatisFinancialPlanning?3.2AFinancialPlanningModel:TheIngredients3.3ThePercentageSalesMethod3.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?3.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModels3.6SummaryandConclusions51ChapterOutline3.1WhatisFin3.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?Itformulatesthemethodbywhichfinancialgoalsaretobeachieved.Therearetwodimensions:ATimeFrameShortrunisprobablyanythinglessthanayear.Longrunisanythingoverthat;usuallytakentobeatwo-yeartofive-yearperiod.ALevelofAggregationEachdivisionandoperationalunitshouldhaveaplan.Asthecapital-budgetinganalysesofeachofthefirm’sdivisionsareaddedup,thefirmaggregatesthesesmallprojectsasabigproject.523.1WhatisCorporateFinancia3.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?ScenarioAnalysisEachdivisionmightbeaskedtopreparethreedifferentplansfortheneartermfuture:AWorstCaseANormalCaseABestCase533.1WhatisCorporateFinanciaWhatWillthePlanningProcessAccomplish?InteractionsTheplanmustmakeexplicitthelinkagesbetweeninvestmentproposalsandthefirm’sfinancingchoices.OptionsTheplanprovidesanopportunityforthefirmtoweighitsvariousoptions.FeasibilityAvoidingSurprisesNobodyplanstofail,butmanyfailtoplan.54WhatWillthePlanningProcess3.2AFinancialPlanningModel:

TheIngredientsSalesforecastProformastatementsAssetrequirementsFinancialrequirementsPlugEconomicassumptions553.2AFinancialPlanningModelSalesForecastAllfinancialplansrequireasalesforecast.Perfectforeknowledgeisimpossiblesincesalesdependontheuncertainfuturestateoftheeconomy.Businessesthatspecializeinmacroeconomicandindustryprojectscanbehelpinestimatingsales.56SalesForecastAllfinancialplProFormaStatementsThefinancialplanwillhaveaforecastbalancesheet,aforecastincomestatement,andaforecastsources-and-uses-of-cashstatement.Thesearecalledproformastatementsorproformas.57ProFormaStatementsThefinancAssetRequirementsThefinancialplanwilldescribeprojectedcapitalspending.Inadditionitwilldiscusstheproposedusesofnetworkingcapital.58AssetRequirementsThefinanciaFinancialRequirementsTheplanwillincludeasectiononfinancingarrangements.Dividendpolicyandcapitalstructurepolicyshouldbeaddressed.Ifnewfundsaretoberaised,theplanshouldconsiderwhatkindsofsecuritiesmustbesoldandwhatmethodsofissuancearemostappropriate.59FinancialRequirementsTheplanPlugCompatibilityacrossvariousgrowthtargetswillusuallyrequireadjustmentinathirdvariable.Supposeafinancialplannerassumesthatsales,costs,andnetincomewillriseatg1.Further,supposethattheplannerdesiresassetsandliabilitiestogrowatadifferentrate,g2.Thesetworatesmaybeincompatibleunlessathirdvariableisadjusted.Forexample,compatibilitymayonlybereachedisoutstandingstockgrowsatathirdrate,g3.Readexampleonp46-4760PlugCompatibilityacrossvarioEconomicAssumptionsTheplanmustexplicitlystatetheeconomicenvironmentinwhichthefirmexpectstoresideoverthelifeoftheplan.Interestrateforecastsarepartoftheplan.61EconomicAssumptionsTheplanmTheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(p50)Expressbalance-sheetitemsthatvarywithsalesasapercentageofsales.Multiplythepercentagesdetermineinstep1byprojectedsalestoobtaintheamountforthefutureperiod.Whennopercentageapplies,simplyinsertthepreviousbalance-sheetfigureintothefutureperiod.62TheStepsinEstimationofProTheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(continued)Presentretainedearnings+Projectednetincome–CashdividendsProjectedretainedearningsAddtheassetaccountstodetermineprojectedassets.Next,addtheliabilitiesandequityaccountstodeterminethetotalfinancing;anydifferenceistheshortfall.Thisequalstheexternalfundsneeded.UsetheplugtofillEFN.ComputerProjectedretainedearningsas63TheStepsinEstimationofProABriefExampleTheRosengartenCorporationisthinkofacquiringanewmachine.Themachinewillincreasesalesfrom$20millionto$22million—10%growth.Thefirmbelievesthatitsassetsandliabilitiesgrowdirectlywithitslevelofsales.Itsprofitmarginonsalesis10%,anditsdividend-payoutratiois50%.Willthefirmbeabletofinancegrowthinsaleswithretainedearningsandforecastincreasesindebt?64ABriefExampleTheRosengartenABriefExampleCurrentBalanceSheetProformaBalanceSheet

(millions)

ExplanationCurrentassets$6(6/20=30%)$6.6(22*30%)30%ofsalesFixedassets$24$26.4120%ofsalesTotalassets$30$33150%ofsalesShort-termdebt$10$1150%ofsalesLong-termdebt$6$6.630%ofsalesCommonstock$4$4ConstantRetainedEarnings$10$11.1(10+2.2-2.2*50%)NetIncomeTotalfinancing$30$32.7

$0.3Fundsneeded(millions)65ABriefExampleCurrentBalanceThePercentageSalesMethod:EFNTheexternalfundsneededfora10%growthinsales:p=Netprofitmargin=0.10d=Dividendpayoutratio=0.5DSales=Projectedchangeinsales=$2million66ThePercentageSalesMethod:EThePercentageSalesMethod:EFNTheexternalfundsneeded67ThePercentageSalesMethod:E3.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?Firmsfrequentlymakegrowthforecastsonexplicitpartoffinancialplanning.Ontheotherhand,thefocusofthiscoursehasbeenonshareholderwealthmaximization,oftenexpressedthroughtheNPVcriterion.Onewaytoreconcilethetwoistothinkofgrowthasanintermediategoalthatleadstohighervalue.Alternatively,ifthefirmiswillingtoacceptnegativeNPVprojectsjusttogrowinsize,theshareholders(butnotnecessarilythemangers)willbeworseoff.683.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?Fir3.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?Thereisalinkagebetweentheabilityofafirmtogrowanditsfinancialpolicywhenthefirmdoesnotissueequity.TheSustainableGrowthRateinSalesisgivenby:693.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?TheChangeinassets=changeindebt+changeinequityCapitalspending=newequity+newdebtT⊿S=S1*p*(1-d)+S1*p*(1-d)*D/ES1=S0+⊿ST=A/S70Changeinassets=changeindebTheSustainable

GrowthRateinSalesT=ratiooftotalassetstosalesp=netprofitmarginonsalesd=dividendpayoutratio71TheSustainable

GrowthRateinEXAMPLEonp52-53p=1650/10,000=0.165d=1,195/1,650=0.724,(1-d)=1-0.724=0.276L=5000/5000=1T=10,000/10,000=1⊿S/S0=0.165*0.276*(1+1)/[1-0.165*0.276*(1+1)]=0.172EXAMPLEonp52-53p=1650/10,00UsesoftheSustainableGrowthRateAcommerciallenderwouldwanttocompareapotentialborrower’sactualgrowthratewiththeirsustainablegrowthrate.Iftheactualgrowthrateismuchhigherthanthesustainablegrowthrate,theborrowerrunstheriskof“growingbroke”andanylendingmustbeviewedasadownpaymentonamuchmorecomprehensivelendingarrangementthanjustoneroundoffinancing.73UsesoftheSustainableGrowthIncreasingtheSustainable

GrowthRateAfirmcandoseveralthingstoincreaseitssustainablegrowthrate:SellnewsharesofstockIncreaseitsrelianceondebtReduceitsdividend-payoutratioIncreaseprofitmarginsDecreaseitsasset-requirementratio74IncreasingtheSustainable

Gro3.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModelsFinancialplanningmodelsdonotindicatewhichfinancialpolicesarethebest.Theyareoftensimplificationsofreality—andtheworldcanchangeinunexpectedways.Withoutsomesortofplan,thefirmmayfinditselfadriftinaseaofchangewithoutarudderforguidance.753.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialSummary&ConclusionsFinancialplanningforcesthefirmtothinkaboutandforecastthefuture.ItinvolvesBuildingacorporatefinancialmodel.Describingdifferentscenariosoffuturedevelopmentfrombesttoworstcase.Usingthemodelstoconstructproformafinancialstatements.Runningthemodelunderdifferentscenarios(sensitivityanalysis).Examiningthefinancialimplicationsofultimatestrategicplans.76Summary&ConclusionsFinancialSummary&ConclusionsCorporatefinancialplanningshouldnotbecomeanendinanofitself.Ifitdoes,itwillprobablyfocusonthewrongthings.Thealternativetofinancialplanningisstumblingintothefuture.77Summary&ConclusionsCorporateMultipleChoice

1.Theprocessofcombiningsmallerprojectsintoalargebudgetforplanningpurposesiscalled A) aggregation. B) consolidation. C) assumption. D) capitalallocation. E) Noneoftheabove.78MultipleChoice1.TheprocessAnswer:A79Answer:A292.Projectedfuturefinancialstatementsarecalled A) plugstatements. B) proformastatements. C) reconciledstatements. D) aggregatedstatements. E) noneoftheabove.802.ProjectedfuturefinancialAnswer:B81Answer:B313.Thepercentageofsalesmethod A) requiresthatallaccountsgrowatthesamerate. B) separatesaccountsthatvarywithsalesandthosethatdonotvarywithsales. C) allowstheanalysttocalculatehowmuchfinancingthefirmwillneedtosupportthepredictedsaleslevel. D) BothAandB. E) BothBandC.823.ThepercentageofsalesmetAnswer:E83Answer:E334.Anexampleofaneconomicassumptionwouldbe A) growthinsales. B) growthinthecapitalspendingrequirement. C) aplugvariable. D) changeininterestrates. E) growthindividends.844.AnexampleofaneconomicaAnswer:D85Answer:D355.Accountsreceivableare$45,000andaredirectlyproportionaltototalsales.Thesalesforecastfornextyearis$125,000,whichrepresentsa5%growthoverthecurrentyear.Theforecastaccountsreceivablewouldbe A) $42,750 B) $45,000 C) $47,250 D) Itisimpossibletocalculatewithoutlastyear'screditsales. E) Noneoftheabove.865.Accountsreceivableare$45