企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)

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風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)PPT模板下載：/moban/2第一部分

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)第1章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)第2章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理第3章保險(xiǎn)第4章影響保險(xiǎn)合同的基本因素第5章保險(xiǎn)合同的內(nèi)容及其分析2第一部分

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)3

第一章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

3

第一章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

4§1.1風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的本質(zhì)Risk:variabilityinfutureoutcomes，whichmeansoutcomesmaydifferfromexpectations.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一種客觀存在的、損失的發(fā)生具有不確定性的狀態(tài)。4§1.1風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的本質(zhì)5

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義的三個(gè)要點(diǎn)(1)riskisastate.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一種狀態(tài)。不論人們是否意識(shí)到，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都是客觀存在的。(2)riskhassomethingtodowithloss.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是與損失相關(guān)的狀態(tài)。(3)uncertainty.損失的發(fā)生具有不確定性。5

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義的三個(gè)要點(diǎn)6兩個(gè)概念speculativerisk

投機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn):既存在損失的可能性又存在獲利的可能性。三種可能：損失、無變化或獲利。purerisk

純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：只有損失機(jī)會(huì)而無獲利機(jī)會(huì)。兩種可能：損失、無損失。6兩個(gè)概念speculativerisk投7§1.2對待風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的態(tài)度7§1.2對待風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的態(tài)度8§1.3風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量損失發(fā)生的頻率frequency↑,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑損失發(fā)生的嚴(yán)重程度severity↑，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑損失的不確定性和損失的嚴(yán)重性，構(gòu)成了人們對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重視程度。8§1.3風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量損失發(fā)生的頻率frequency↑,9損失概率9損失概率10(1)均值根據(jù)概率分布，可計(jì)算樣本平均數(shù)10(1)均值根據(jù)概率分布，可計(jì)算樣本平均數(shù)11(2)變化性11(2)變化性12相同的均值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差↑,則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑。不同的均值,則看coefficientofvariance離散系數(shù)。離散系數(shù)↑,則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑。12相同的均值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差↑,則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑。13大數(shù)定律LAWOFLARGENUMBERSAsasampleofobservationsisincreasedinsize,therelativevariationaboutthemeandeclines.13大數(shù)定律14TheLawofLargeNumbersForanye

>0,Pr[L-m>e]0asN

∞.

.14TheLawofLargeNumbers15RiskPoolingExampleConsider1individual,facingthefollowinglossdistribution:LossProb$00.8$2,5000.2E(Loss)=$500Std(Loss)=1,00015RiskPoolingExample161Individual$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,0000.90.8

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.10.0161Individual$017Supposethat2individuals,facingthesamelossdistribution.PooledLossesAvgLossesProb$0$00.64$2,500$1,2500.16$2,500$1,2500.16$5,000$2,5000.04E(Loss)=$500

Std(Loss)=707.10

17Supposethat2individuals,182Individuals$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000

182Individuals$019Supposethat3individuals,facingthesamelossdistribution.

PooledLossesAvgLossesProb000.5122,500833.330.1282,500833.330.1282,500833.330.1285,0001,666.670.0325,0001,666.670.0325,0001,666.670.0327,5002,500.000.008E(Loss)=$500

Std(Loss)=577.35

19Supposethat3individuals,202021212222232324TheCovariance協(xié)方差measurestherelationshipbetweentworandomvariables.ItiscomputedasCov(X,Y)=Spi(xi-mx)(yi-my)=sx,y=E[(x-mx)(y-my)]E[(x-mx)(y-my)]=E(XY)-mxmyCov(X,X)=Var(X)ThecorrelationcoefficientbetweenXandYiscomputedasr=sx,y/sxsy24TheCovariance協(xié)方差measuresth25PropertiesofVariances:25PropertiesofVariances:26Cov(X,X)=Var(X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(Y,X)Cov(Y,Y)=Var(Y)Cov(X,X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(X,Z)Cov(Y,X)Cov(Y,Y)Cov(Y,Z)Cov(Z,X)Cov(Z,X)Cov(Z,Z)26Cov(X,X)=Var(X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(Y2727282829AnExample:Supposethataninsurancecompanyinsuresthefollowinggroupof20policies:20satellites,eachwithmi=m=$10m(foralli)andsi=s=100m.LetXidenotetherandomlossforsatellitei.

29AnExample:30Supposethattheinsurancecompanyrequiredactuariallyfairpremiumsinexchangeforfullinsurance.Whatistheprobabilitythattheinsurancecompanygoesunderinsolvency?P(Liabilities>Assets)Answer:.530Supposethattheinsurancec31Supposethattheloadis10%instead.P=11.P(Liabilities>Assets)Answer:1-.672=.33831Supposethattheloadis10%32Example(Cont):

Supposethataninsurancecompanyinsuresthefollowinggroupofpolicies:100satellites,eachwithmi=m=$10m(foralli)andsi=s=100m.LetXidenotetherandomlossforsatellitei.

32Example(Cont):33Supposethattheloadis10%instead.P=11.P(Liabilities>Assets)=P(Z>1)=1-.841345=.158633Supposethattheloadis10%34§1.4純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的要素34§1.4純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的要素35EXPOSURES風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體

thepropertyorpersonfacingaconditioninwhichlossorlossesarepossible.按照exposure風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體來分類，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以分為人身損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。35EXPOSURES風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體

36人身損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

personallossexposures由于所有的損失最終都是要由人來承受的，因此，從某種意義上說，所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損害對象都是個(gè)人。但是有一些損失更直接地影響到人身。36人身損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

personallossexposur37財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

propertylossexposures因財(cái)產(chǎn)發(fā)生損毀、滅失和貶值而使財(cái)產(chǎn)的所有權(quán)人遭受損失。這種損失既有directloss直接損失，也有consequentialloss引致?lián)p失。37財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

propertylossexposur38責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

liabilitylossexposures人們的過失或侵權(quán)行為造成他人的財(cái)產(chǎn)損毀或人身傷亡，在法律上負(fù)有經(jīng)濟(jì)賠償責(zé)任或?qū)Υ诉M(jìn)行申訴。38責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

liabilitylossexposu39PERILS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故Perilsaretheimmediatecausesofloss.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故是損失的直接原因，如火災(zāi)、地震、洪水、龍卷風(fēng)、雷電、盜竊、死亡、爆炸、疾病等等。可分為人為、自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故和insurable可保、noninsurable不可保風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故。39PERILS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故Perilsaretheim40HAZARDS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Hazardsaretheconditionsthatliebehindtheoccurrenceoflosses,increasingtheprobabilityoflosses,theirseverityorboth.促使和增加損失發(fā)生的頻率或嚴(yán)重程度的任何條件。有兩類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素：有形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素physicalhazards和無形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素intangiblehazards.40HAZARDS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Hazardsarethe41有形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Physicalhazardsarethetangibleconditionsoftheenvironmentthataffectthefrequencyand/orseverityofloss.導(dǎo)致?lián)p失發(fā)生的物質(zhì)方面的因素。如財(cái)產(chǎn)所在的地域、建筑結(jié)構(gòu)和用途等。41有形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素42無形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Attitudesandculture(nonphysicalconditions)alsoaffecttheprobabilityandseverityofloss.文化、習(xí)俗和生活態(tài)度等非物質(zhì)形態(tài)的因素也會(huì)影響損失發(fā)生的可能性和受損的程度。它包括道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素moralhazard和行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素moralehazard兩種。42無形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素43風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素結(jié)構(gòu)圖43風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素結(jié)構(gòu)圖44道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Moralhazardsinvolvedishonestyonthepartofinsureds.Inthecontextofinsurance,moralhazardsareconditionsthatencourageinsuredstocauselossesintentionally.人們以不誠實(shí)、不良企圖或欺詐行為故意促使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故發(fā)生，或擴(kuò)大已發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故所造成的損失。在保險(xiǎn)的場合，道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要表現(xiàn)在投保人利用保險(xiǎn)謀取不正當(dāng)利益。44道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)45行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Moralehazards,incontrast,donotinvolvedishonesty.Rather,moralehazardsareattitudesofcarelessnessandlackofconcernthatincreasethechancealosswilloccurorincreasethesizeoflossesthatdooccur.由于人們行為上的粗心大意和漠不關(guān)心，易于引發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故發(fā)生的機(jī)會(huì)和擴(kuò)大損失的程度。45行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)46§1.5對付風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法

MethodsofHandlingPureRisk46§1.5對付風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法

MethodsofHand47Avoidance回避Avoidanceoccurswhenthereisnopossibilityoftheoccurrenceofsomeevent.人們設(shè)法回避損失發(fā)生的可能性。47Avoidance回避48回避的弊端(1)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有時(shí)是可能的，但是不可行。(2)回避某一類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能面臨另一類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(3)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能造成利益受損。48回避的弊端(1)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有時(shí)是可能的，但是不可行。49LossControl損失控制Losscontrolrepresentsthoseeffortsdesignedtominimizetheoverallfrequencyandsizeofoutcomes損失控制可分為lossprevention防損andlossreduction減損。49LossControl損失控制505051LossFinancing損失融資損失融資可通過自留和轉(zhuǎn)移來實(shí)現(xiàn)。51LossFinancing損失融資52Retention自留Lossesarepaidfromanindividual’sororganization’sownfunds.自留即由企業(yè)或個(gè)人自己來承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。52Retention自留53人們自留某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因a.沒有意識(shí)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在，或?qū)︼L(fēng)險(xiǎn)的嚴(yán)重性估計(jì)不足，認(rèn)為自己不大會(huì)遭受這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所造成的損失。Itwon’thappentome.b.因?yàn)轱L(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能造成的損失在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是微不足道的，經(jīng)過慎重考慮決定自己承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。c.全部或部分地由自己來承擔(dān)某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比購買保險(xiǎn)更經(jīng)濟(jì)和合算。53人們自留某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因a.沒有意識(shí)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在，或?qū)︼L(fēng)險(xiǎn)54自保企業(yè)selfinsurance自留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可行程度取決于損失預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性和補(bǔ)償損失的適當(dāng)安排。當(dāng)一個(gè)企業(yè)采用一種科學(xué)、合理的方法來自己承擔(dān)可保風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，這種企業(yè)為自保企業(yè)selfinsured。自保的優(yōu)點(diǎn)：可以節(jié)省開支;由于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)自擔(dān)，收益自留，自保企業(yè)會(huì)積極主動(dòng)地對企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行控制，使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降至最低水平。缺點(diǎn)：防險(xiǎn)避險(xiǎn)技術(shù)和分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力不如專業(yè)保險(xiǎn)公司。54自保企業(yè)selfinsurance自留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可行程度55Transfer轉(zhuǎn)移Peoplestillstayinthegamebutshiftthefinancialaspectsofrisktosomeoneelse.人們?nèi)詤⑴c有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的事情，但將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移給其他人來承擔(dān)。55Transfer轉(zhuǎn)移5656575758在獨(dú)資形式下，由于企業(yè)不是獨(dú)立的法人，業(yè)主的個(gè)人財(cái)產(chǎn)不能與企業(yè)的財(cái)產(chǎn)相分離，業(yè)主對企業(yè)的債務(wù)負(fù)有無限責(zé)任。在合伙企業(yè)中，除了有限合伙人以外，如果沒有特別的約定，全體合伙人對于合伙的債務(wù)都將承擔(dān)無限連帶責(zé)任。即各個(gè)合伙人在企業(yè)的財(cái)產(chǎn)與他們個(gè)人的財(cái)產(chǎn)也是沒有分開的。58在獨(dú)資形式下，由于企業(yè)不是獨(dú)立的法人，業(yè)主的個(gè)人財(cái)產(chǎn)不能59在公司這種組織形式中，企業(yè)是一個(gè)獨(dú)立的法人，股東的個(gè)人財(cái)產(chǎn)與企業(yè)的財(cái)產(chǎn)分離。企業(yè)如果經(jīng)營失敗，股東的損失僅限于他們在該企業(yè)中的投資部分。所以，公司是轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一種形式，它不會(huì)阻止損失的發(fā)生，但它將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)從股東個(gè)人那里轉(zhuǎn)移到了公司。59在公司這種組織形式中，企業(yè)是一個(gè)獨(dú)立的法人，股東的個(gè)人財(cái)6060616162DiscussionQuestions1、請針對駕駛汽車時(shí)存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，舉出exposures,perilsandhazards,以及如何管理這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2、Somepeoplewithcompletehealthinsurancecoveragetendtovisitdoctorsmoreoftenthanrequired.Isthistendencyamoralhazard,amoralehazard,orsimplecommonsense?Explain.62DiscussionQuestions1、請針對駕駛汽63CaseOnemedicalpracticethathasbeenwidelydiscussedinrecentyearsinvolves“defensivemedicine”,inwhichadoctorordersmoremedicaltestsandx-raysthansheorhemighthaveinthepast-notbecauseofthecomplexityofthecase,butbecausethedoctorfearsbeingsuedbythepatientformedicalmalpractice.Theextratestsmayestablishthatthedoctordideverythingreasonableandprudenttodiagnoseandtreatthepatient.63CaseOnemedicalpracticetha641.Whatdoesthistellyouabouttheburdenofrisk?2.Whatimpactdoesthisburdenplaceonyouandyourfamilyinyoureverydaylife?3.Isthedoctorwrongtodothis,orisitanecessaryprecaution?4.Istheresomewaytochangethissituation?641.Whatdoesthistellyoua企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)課件知識(shí)**PPT模板下載：/moban/行業(yè)PPT模板：/hangye/節(jié)日PPT模板：/jieri/PPT素材下載：/sucai/PPT背景圖片：/beijing/PPT圖表下載：/tubiao/優(yōu)秀PPT下載：/xiazai/PPT教程：/powerpoint/Word教程：/word/Excel教程：/excel/資料下載：/ziliao/PPT課件下載：/kejian/范文下載：/fanwen/試卷下載：/shiti/教案下載：/jiaoan/

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風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)PPT模板下載：/moban/75第一部分

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)第1章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)第2章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理第3章保險(xiǎn)第4章影響保險(xiǎn)合同的基本因素第5章保險(xiǎn)合同的內(nèi)容及其分析2第一部分

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和保險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)76

第一章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

3

第一章風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

77§1.1風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的本質(zhì)Risk:variabilityinfutureoutcomes，whichmeansoutcomesmaydifferfromexpectations.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一種客觀存在的、損失的發(fā)生具有不確定性的狀態(tài)。4§1.1風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的本質(zhì)78

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義的三個(gè)要點(diǎn)(1)riskisastate.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一種狀態(tài)。不論人們是否意識(shí)到，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都是客觀存在的。(2)riskhassomethingtodowithloss.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是與損失相關(guān)的狀態(tài)。(3)uncertainty.損失的發(fā)生具有不確定性。5

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義的三個(gè)要點(diǎn)79兩個(gè)概念speculativerisk

投機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn):既存在損失的可能性又存在獲利的可能性。三種可能：損失、無變化或獲利。purerisk

純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：只有損失機(jī)會(huì)而無獲利機(jī)會(huì)。兩種可能：損失、無損失。6兩個(gè)概念speculativerisk投80§1.2對待風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的態(tài)度7§1.2對待風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的態(tài)度81§1.3風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量損失發(fā)生的頻率frequency↑,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑損失發(fā)生的嚴(yán)重程度severity↑，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑損失的不確定性和損失的嚴(yán)重性，構(gòu)成了人們對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重視程度。8§1.3風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量損失發(fā)生的頻率frequency↑,82損失概率9損失概率83(1)均值根據(jù)概率分布，可計(jì)算樣本平均數(shù)10(1)均值根據(jù)概率分布，可計(jì)算樣本平均數(shù)84(2)變化性11(2)變化性85相同的均值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差↑,則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑。不同的均值,則看coefficientofvariance離散系數(shù)。離散系數(shù)↑,則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑。12相同的均值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差↑,則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)↑。86大數(shù)定律LAWOFLARGENUMBERSAsasampleofobservationsisincreasedinsize,therelativevariationaboutthemeandeclines.13大數(shù)定律87TheLawofLargeNumbersForanye

>0,Pr[L-m>e]0asN

∞.

.14TheLawofLargeNumbers88RiskPoolingExampleConsider1individual,facingthefollowinglossdistribution:LossProb$00.8$2,5000.2E(Loss)=$500Std(Loss)=1,00015RiskPoolingExample891Individual$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,0000.90.8

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.10.0161Individual$090Supposethat2individuals,facingthesamelossdistribution.PooledLossesAvgLossesProb$0$00.64$2,500$1,2500.16$2,500$1,2500.16$5,000$2,5000.04E(Loss)=$500

Std(Loss)=707.10

17Supposethat2individuals,912Individuals$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000

182Individuals$092Supposethat3individuals,facingthesamelossdistribution.

PooledLossesAvgLossesProb000.5122,500833.330.1282,500833.330.1282,500833.330.1285,0001,666.670.0325,0001,666.670.0325,0001,666.670.0327,5002,500.000.008E(Loss)=$500

Std(Loss)=577.35

19Supposethat3individuals,932094219522962397TheCovariance協(xié)方差measurestherelationshipbetweentworandomvariables.ItiscomputedasCov(X,Y)=Spi(xi-mx)(yi-my)=sx,y=E[(x-mx)(y-my)]E[(x-mx)(y-my)]=E(XY)-mxmyCov(X,X)=Var(X)ThecorrelationcoefficientbetweenXandYiscomputedasr=sx,y/sxsy24TheCovariance協(xié)方差measuresth98PropertiesofVariances:25PropertiesofVariances:99Cov(X,X)=Var(X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(Y,X)Cov(Y,Y)=Var(Y)Cov(X,X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(X,Z)Cov(Y,X)Cov(Y,Y)Cov(Y,Z)Cov(Z,X)Cov(Z,X)Cov(Z,Z)26Cov(X,X)=Var(X)Cov(X,Y)Cov(Y1002710128102AnExample:Supposethataninsurancecompanyinsuresthefollowinggroupof20policies:20satellites,eachwithmi=m=$10m(foralli)andsi=s=100m.LetXidenotetherandomlossforsatellitei.

29AnExample:103Supposethattheinsurancecompanyrequiredactuariallyfairpremiumsinexchangeforfullinsurance.Whatistheprobabilitythattheinsurancecompanygoesunderinsolvency?P(Liabilities>Assets)Answer:.530Supposethattheinsurancec104Supposethattheloadis10%instead.P=11.P(Liabilities>Assets)Answer:1-.672=.33831Supposethattheloadis10%105Example(Cont):

Supposethataninsurancecompanyinsuresthefollowinggroupofpolicies:100satellites,eachwithmi=m=$10m(foralli)andsi=s=100m.LetXidenotetherandomlossforsatellitei.

32Example(Cont):106Supposethattheloadis10%instead.P=11.P(Liabilities>Assets)=P(Z>1)=1-.841345=.158633Supposethattheloadis10%107§1.4純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的要素34§1.4純粹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的要素108EXPOSURES風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體

thepropertyorpersonfacingaconditioninwhichlossorlossesarepossible.按照exposure風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體來分類，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以分為人身損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。35EXPOSURES風(fēng)險(xiǎn)載體

109人身損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

personallossexposures由于所有的損失最終都是要由人來承受的，因此，從某種意義上說，所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損害對象都是個(gè)人。但是有一些損失更直接地影響到人身。36人身損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

personallossexposur110財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

propertylossexposures因財(cái)產(chǎn)發(fā)生損毀、滅失和貶值而使財(cái)產(chǎn)的所有權(quán)人遭受損失。這種損失既有directloss直接損失，也有consequentialloss引致?lián)p失。37財(cái)產(chǎn)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

propertylossexposur111責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

liabilitylossexposures人們的過失或侵權(quán)行為造成他人的財(cái)產(chǎn)損毀或人身傷亡，在法律上負(fù)有經(jīng)濟(jì)賠償責(zé)任或?qū)Υ诉M(jìn)行申訴。38責(zé)任損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

liabilitylossexposu112PERILS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故Perilsaretheimmediatecausesofloss.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故是損失的直接原因，如火災(zāi)、地震、洪水、龍卷風(fēng)、雷電、盜竊、死亡、爆炸、疾病等等?？煞譃槿藶椤⒆匀伙L(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故和insurable可保、noninsurable不可保風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故。39PERILS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故Perilsaretheim113HAZARDS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Hazardsaretheconditionsthatliebehindtheoccurrenceoflosses,increasingtheprobabilityoflosses,theirseverityorboth.促使和增加損失發(fā)生的頻率或嚴(yán)重程度的任何條件。有兩類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素：有形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素physicalhazards和無形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素intangiblehazards.40HAZARDS風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Hazardsarethe114有形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Physicalhazardsarethetangibleconditionsoftheenvironmentthataffectthefrequencyand/orseverityofloss.導(dǎo)致?lián)p失發(fā)生的物質(zhì)方面的因素。如財(cái)產(chǎn)所在的地域、建筑結(jié)構(gòu)和用途等。41有形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素115無形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素Attitudesandculture(nonphysicalconditions)alsoaffecttheprobabilityandseverityofloss.文化、習(xí)俗和生活態(tài)度等非物質(zhì)形態(tài)的因素也會(huì)影響損失發(fā)生的可能性和受損的程度。它包括道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素moralhazard和行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素moralehazard兩種。42無形風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素116風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素結(jié)構(gòu)圖43風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素結(jié)構(gòu)圖117道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Moralhazardsinvolvedishonestyonthepartofinsureds.Inthecontextofinsurance,moralhazardsareconditionsthatencourageinsuredstocauselossesintentionally.人們以不誠實(shí)、不良企圖或欺詐行為故意促使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故發(fā)生，或擴(kuò)大已發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故所造成的損失。在保險(xiǎn)的場合，道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要表現(xiàn)在投保人利用保險(xiǎn)謀取不正當(dāng)利益。44道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)118行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Moralehazards,incontrast,donotinvolvedishonesty.Rather,moralehazardsareattitudesofcarelessnessandlackofconcernthatincreasethechancealosswilloccurorincreasethesizeoflossesthatdooccur.由于人們行為上的粗心大意和漠不關(guān)心，易于引發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故發(fā)生的機(jī)會(huì)和擴(kuò)大損失的程度。45行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)119§1.5對付風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法

MethodsofHandlingPureRisk46§1.5對付風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法

MethodsofHand120Avoidance回避Avoidanceoccurswhenthereisnopossibilityoftheoccurrenceofsomeevent.人們設(shè)法回避損失發(fā)生的可能性。47Avoidance回避121回避的弊端(1)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有時(shí)是可能的，但是不可行。(2)回避某一類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能面臨另一類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(3)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能造成利益受損。48回避的弊端(1)回避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有時(shí)是可能的，但是不可行。122LossControl損失控制Losscontrolrepresentsthoseeffortsdesignedtominimizetheoverallfrequencyandsizeofoutcomes損失控制可分為lossprevention防損andlossreduction減損。49LossControl損失控制12350124LossFinancing損失融資損失融資可通過自留和轉(zhuǎn)移來實(shí)現(xiàn)。51LossFinancing損失融資125Retention自留Lossesarepaidfromanindividual’sororganization’sownfunds.自留即由企業(yè)或個(gè)人自己來承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。52Retention自留126人們自留某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因a.沒有意識(shí)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在，或?qū)︼L(fēng)險(xiǎn)的嚴(yán)重性估計(jì)不足，認(rèn)為自己不大會(huì)遭受這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所造成的損失。Itwon’thappentome.b.因?yàn)轱L(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能造成的損失在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是微不足道的，經(jīng)過慎重考慮決定自己承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。c.全部或部分地由自己來承擔(dān)某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比購買保險(xiǎn)更經(jīng)濟(jì)和合算。53人們自留某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因a.沒有意識(shí)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在，或?qū)︼L(fēng)險(xiǎn)127自保企業(yè)selfinsurance自留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可行程度取決于損失預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性和補(bǔ)償損失的適當(dāng)安排。當(dāng)一個(gè)企業(yè)采用一種科學(xué)、合理的方法來自己承擔(dān)可保風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，這種企業(yè)為自保企業(yè)selfinsured。自保的優(yōu)點(diǎn)：可以節(jié)省開支;由于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)自擔(dān)，收益自留，自保企業(yè)會(huì)積極主動(dòng)地對企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行控制，使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降至最低水平。缺點(diǎn)：防險(xiǎn)避險(xiǎn)技術(shù)和分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力不如專業(yè)保險(xiǎn)公司。54自保企業(yè)selfinsurance自留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可行程