珠寶行業(yè)FrankToney博士講座（英文）

MGT251:

Scheduling&CostControlDr.FrankToneyInstructorNotes1NotesforUMT1AgendaSchedule *Start–Stop *Breaksevery50minutesSocraticmethodMaterials:notebook,supplementalnotes,benchmarkingpracticesHomework:Olympicswebsites.Eachteam–2articlesaboutcostsorschedule.NoteWebSiteTestonSundayBeijingOlympicscasestudyCulture2UMT1-1Frank’sbioEducation:

MBAfromUofToledo,DoctoratefromNovaSoutheasternU,PMP.UOPDocLeadershipChair;GWU;UofCaliforniafaculty.Leadership:CEOof5companies;4boards,2trustsWriting:7leadership&projectmanagementbooks.Manyarticles.BoardofBestPracticesJournal.ProjectManagement:

Projectsinover20countries.PMIActivities:Standards,Research,Academiccommittees.Benchmarking:LeadTop500ProjectManagementBenchmarkingForum.120companies.Personal:Wife&3kids,liketofly.LiveinScottsdale,AZ3UMT1-1IntroductiontoScheduling&CostControl

DocumentFlow4NotesforUMT1IntroductiontoScheduling&CostControl

WhyScheduling&CostControlareImportantMajorproblemnowinI/Tindustry.300–400%overestimates.HelpsallocateresourcesGuidesprojectperformanceEstablishesperformancebaselines–evaluateperformanceHelpsmanageprojectchange80%ofprojectproblemsoriginateinplanningPresentsimageofprofessionalism5NotesforUMT1IntroductiontoScheduling&CostControl

ObjectivesoftheCourseImprovecareeropportunitiesImproveorganizationalperformanceLearnestimatingthatisvalid,reliable,accurate.ApplyforecastingtechniquesUnderstandriskestimating&evaluationUnderstandtheWBS:itsimpactonscheduling,costing,riskanalysisInvestigatethecriticalchainconceptLearnprojectevaluationtechniquesUnderstandprojectcontrolmethodsDetailEVMtechniquesLearnprojectcloseouttools6NotesforUMT1IntroductiontoScheduling&CostControl

StructureoftheCourseModule1:EstimatingModule2:EstimatingbestpracticesModule3:CostestimatingbasicsModule4:ForecastingModule5:Estimation&riskModule6:WBS&scheduling introductionModule7:Criticalchain&time boxedschedulingModule8:ProjectevaluationModule9:ProjectcontrolModule10:Earnedvalue managementModule11:Projectclose-out7UMT1-1Modules1&2:Estimating

ObjectivesofModules1&2ExplaintheimportanceofEstimatingDescribeestimatingproblemsPresentbestestimatingpracticesExplainmeasurementtheory&practice8NotesforUMT2Modules1&2:EstimatingPreamble1-3

PredictingtheFutureHistorical *Prophets,seers,visionaries *Twocomponents(a)theprediction,(b)hadtocometrue. *Spiritual,mysticalovertonesModern *Intuition *PragmaticIncludes *Quantitativeanalysis:math,observe,measure,replicate *Qualitative:abstract(love,spirit),intuition9UMT1-1Modules1&2:Estimating(p1-5)

Formalvs.InformalEstimatesFormalestimates:retainedaspartoftheprojectrecord. *Schedule *Budget *MemosInformalestimates:norecordkept. *Casualdiscussionsandpredictions10UMT1-1Modules1:Estimating

Time,Money,Resources:Constraints&Assumptions

11NotesforUMT1-10Module2:GoodEstimating

OtherEstimatingGuidelinesPaddingestimatesmeanstheprojectstartsonaninaccuratebaseEstimatesfailtoadequatelyaccountforriskScopechangesarenotaccountedforEthicaldilemmasresultfrompoliticalpressureandlowballingEstablishanaccuracystateofmindUsetheprojectteam

12NotesfromUMT7Module2:GoodEstimating

EstablishClearMeasurementMetrics

Metricscharacteristics

*Simple,easytounderstand,interpret andcompile,reliable,andcomparable*Lendthemselvestobeingrolled-upintoportfoliowidestatistics*EncouragebehaviorthatresultsinpositiveprojectandportfolioresultsMetricsProblems*Measurement,compiling,analyzingandreportingofperformance metricsareexpensive*Face-to-facemanagementof projectsmaybesacrificed*Toomuchemphasisoneasy-to-obtainquantitativemetrics

13NotesforUMT8Module2:GoodEstimating

PotentialMetricsUsed

CustomersatisfactionMilestonesDeliverablesCriticalpathmonitoringPeriodicreviewsFinancialandNontimebasedperformancemeasurementsOtherquantitativemeasurementsSubjectiveperformancemeasuresPortfolioperformancemeasurementsMeasurethecostofprofessionalprojectmanagersThecostoftheprojectorganization14NotesforUMT8Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

ObjectivesofModule3Chartofaccounts&itsuseCostestimatingaccuracyBudgeting;topdownvs.bottom-upParametric/analogousestimatingDesigningtocostLevelofeffortestimates15NotesforUMT2Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

BasicEstimatingConsiderationsTheprojectmanagerisresponsiblefortheprojectestimatesEstimatingistimeconsumingandexpensive EstimatetoanappropriatelevelofdetailBudgetincashIncludetheforgottenitems(maintenance,pettycash)Communicatethemannerinwhichestimatescanchange16NotesforUMT2Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

CommunicateAssumptionsandLevelofAccuracy

ConstructionI/SOrderofMagnitude+75%to-25%+300%to+100%BudgetEstimate+25%to-10%+100to+25%DefinitiveEstimate+10%to-5%+25%to-5%17NotesforUMT5Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

BudgetTypeImpactsSpeed,EfficiencyandEffectiveness

BottomupbudgetsaredetailedTopdownbudgetsarefast ZerobasebudgetsjustifyallexpensesandrevenuesCheck-bookbudgetsareeasiestPercentagebasebudgetingbuildsonasolidfoundationProgressiveandrollingbudgetscompensateforscopechanges18NotesforUMT9Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

UniversalCodeofAccountsIncreasesBudgetAccuracyThroughBenchmarking19NotesforUMT15Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

PercentageofRevenue:

Combiningtopdown&bottomup

PriorYear%ofSalesNextYear%ofSales (SameasLastYear)CashinflowRevenue1,500,000 100% 1,650,000100%CashOutflowCostofGoods1,000,000 67% 1,105,50067%

GrossMargin500,000 33% 544,50033%

DirectExpenses:StoreRental72,000 4.8% 79,2004.8%Utilities 26,000 1.7% 28,0501.7%Labor180,000 12% 198,00012%Advertising120,000 8% 132,0008%

TotalExpenses398,000 26% 437,25026%IndirectExp50,0003.3%54,4503.3%PROFIT 52,000 3.5% 52,8003.2% (roundingerror)Mostpopularmethodofforecasting&budgetingAlwaysbudgetbasedonactualcashflows.Showcashinflowsandoutflows–notpayablesandreceivables.20NotesforUMT18Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

DefinetheTypesofCostsContainedintheBudget

UsestandardcoststoincreasespeedandeaseunderstandingDirectcostsareassociatedwithoneprojectIndirectcosts&overheadarespreadovermorethanoneprojectBudgetfordirectorcontrollableexpensesVariablevs.fixedcosts.

Q:Equipment.Fixedcostof$1,500.Variableof$100perunit.Whatiscostof10extraunits?(A:$1,000)21NotesforUMT18Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

CostBasicEstimatingToolsandTechniquesLearningcurve

*Parametrictool *Double#’softimetodosomething–durationof timereduced.Lawofdiminishingreturns.Q:extracostvs.extrarevenue.Depreciation

Costmanagementplan.Describesthemanagementofcostvariances(scopechanges)22NotesfromUMT18Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

TeamActivity

TheBidProposalistheToughestBudgetingTaskPreparingtheBidProposalYoursmallinformationsystemscompanyhasbeenaskedtobidaprojectforalarge,localoilrefinery.Thecompanyisknownforestablishinglongtermandprofitablerelationshipswithvendorsthathaveexhibitedsuperiorperformance.Itisimportantthatyourorganizationbeawardedthisbid.Youknowthattwoother,wellrespectedIScompaniesarealsobiddingthejob.

Yourtaskistoprepareabudgetconsistingofyourbestestimateofthetruecostsoftheproject.Fromthis,selectabidprice.Clearlydifferentiatebetweenyourestimatedtotalcostforperformingtheprojectandyourbidprice.Rawdataisgivenonthenextgraphic:

23NotesforUMT20Module3:CostEstimatingBasics

BreakOut:TheBidProposalRawDataActivityEst.CostEst.TimeTot.BudgetedCost1.Planning,prep.,drawings$1,500/dayfortheteam4-5days2.Hardware,webuildEstbuildcostis$20K,Weusuallymarkup45%3.SoftwareProgrammerpd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr30workdays4.VendorSW$300/computer.Plan6computers.Usuallymarkup25%5.InstallationInstallerspd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr8workdays6.TrainingInstructorspd$35/hr.Usuallybidat$75/hr5workdays7.FactoryOH20%ofprojectcost8.HeadofficeOverhead15%ofprojectcost9.ExWarranty2%ofprojectcost10.ShippingEst.$2,00011.Travel$350perdayEst4workdaysTotal24NotesforUMT20Module4:Forecasting

ObjectivesofModule4Normativevs.extrapolativeforecastingTrendextrapolationMultipleregressionDelphiMethodology25NotesforUMT2Module4:Forecasting

BudgetsandForecastscanbemoreAccurate

Contingencyreserves–reduceriskofoverrunsinmeetingobjectivesManagementreserves–forunknownsBudgetforaccuracy,usecontingencyfundsforriskApplycontingencyandbufferpsychology

26NotesforUMT32Module4:Forecasting

Parametric&AnalogousEstimatingImproveAccuracythroughSimplifications

Heuristicsgivearoughideaofcosts.

"Grossmargininmanufacturingthistypeofproductis45%."Parametricestimatesaresimpleformulas.

"ThelasthouseIbuiltlikethiswas$100perfoot.Thereforethecostwillbeabout$200,000."

Analogousdataisgainedfrompriorprojects.

"ThelasthouseIbuiltlikethiscostabout$200,000.Iwouldexpectthisonetobeaboutthesame."IncludesdatabasesliketheUCOAccounts.27NotesforUMT32Module5:Estimating&Risk

ObjectivesofModule5ImpactofriskonestimatesEvaluationofriskfactorsEstimatingriskvs.uncertaintyIncorporatingpessimism(betadistributions)TriangulardistributionsMonteCarloAnalysisRiskassessmentgroupsLifecyclecostingDatagathering/databases28NotesforUMT2Module5:Estimating&Risk

GenericRiskEvaluationMatrix29NotesforUMT5Module5:Estimating&Risk

OtherSourcesofRiskIdentificationWBS:StillananimportanttoolStaffingplan:anypotentialpeoplerisks?Procurementmanagementplan:opportunitiesorrisksrelatedtovendors?30NotesforUMT5Module5:Estimating&Risk

EMV:MostPopularQuantitativeToolsforRiskAnalysis

(PMBOKp139)Statisticalindependence:UsedforEMVanddecisiontrees.Tossingacoin.Eventsareindependentofeachother.Expectedmonetaryvalue:ImpactedbyriskpronenessorriskaversivenessAmountValueProbabilityOfWinningEMV$50.01$.50$2.10$.200.89$.00Total1.00$.7031NotesforUMT5Module6:TheWorkBreakdownStructure

&ProjectSchedulingBasics

ObjectivesWorkbreakdownstructure–detailsofconstructionandbenefitsWBSasbasisforcostingWBSasbasisforschedulingSchedulingbasics32NotesforUMT2Module6:TheWorkBreakdownStructure

WorkBreakdownStructuredefinestheScopeoftheProjectWelovetheWBSHeartoftheprojectplanninganddefinitioneffort.Techniqueforbreakingdowntheprojectintoitscomponentelements.NotmandatorybutimportantNohardorfastrulesaboutputtingittogether.NotaaschedulingtoolDoesnotshowdependencies33NotesforUMT2Module6:TheWorkBreakdownStructure

WorkBreakdownStructureBenefitsShowstheprojectvisuallyBuildstheteamFocusesondeliverablesForcesplanningandmethodologyIdentifiesworkpackagesandgroupsofactivitiesServesasthebasisforscheduling,cost,specdetails,performancemeasurement,metrics.34NotesforUMT2Module6:ProjectScheduling

EstimatingConsiderations:HowLongisTime?

WorkingtimeorworkdaysProductivetimeElapsedtimeProductivitylevelContinuousdurationDurationinterruptible 35NotesforUMT39Module6:ProjectScheduling

ScheduleSupportingDetailResponsibilityassignmentmatrix.

Activitiesandwhoseisresponsible.Resourcespreadsheet.

Effortneededfromeachresourceduringeachtimeperiod.ResourceGanttchart.

Wheneachresourceisscheduledpertask.Resourcehistogram.

AlternativeschedulesScheduledcontingencyreserves.

36NotesforUMT39Module6:ProjectScheduling

OtherSchedulingConsiderationsResourceLevelingAddstimeusuallyResourceconstrainedschedulei.e.,cash,EinsteinTime-constrained(Y2K).Reverseresourceallocation

37NotesforUMT39Module7:

CriticalChain&Time-BoxedScheduling

ObjectivesoftheModuleApplicationofcriticalchainasamanagementtoolInvestigatethepsychologicaldimensionsofschedulingUsingbufferstoincreaseschedulingaccuracyTime-boxedschedulingtoincreaseprojectspeedManagingtheplayersMiscellaneoustime-boxedissues38NotesforUMT2Module7:Time-BoxedScheduling

IncreasingProjectSpeedMulti-functionalprojectmanagementOverlappingprojectphasesModularize(sub-projects)ValueanalysisTimemanagement39NotesforUMT48Module7:

CriticalChain&Time-BoxedScheduling

Multi-functionalProjectManagement40NotesforUMT21&7-48Module7:Time-BoxedScheduling

FastTracking:OverlappingPhases41NotesforUMT48Module7:Time-BoxedScheduling

Modularize(Sub-projects)forspeed42NotesforUMT48Module7:Time-BoxedScheduling

FastTrackingValueAnalysisforimprovedspeedandcost*Revieweachactivityrelated totimeandcost *Criticallyreviewthe processes *Reviewelapsedtimevs. worktime *Canactivitiesbedone concurrently43UMT1-1Module7:Time-BoxedScheduling

ValueAnalysisforSpeedPurpose:Thevalueanalysisisarigorousreviewofprojectcostsandworkpackages.Itisusedtoreducescheduledurationandcosts.ConsiderEliminationofanyprojectactivity,product,orservicecomponentthatdoesnotsatisfytheseevaluationquestionsWhatarehighestpriorities?Itclearlycontributestovalue.Itstime&costisproportionatetoitsusefulness.Alltheactivitiesandfeaturesareneeded.Itisthebestavailablefortheintendeduse.Itrepresentsthefastest&lowestcostmethodofattainingtheobjective.Itisfaster&lowercostthanastandardproductorcontractservicei.e.Itusesthepropertooling,equipment,(resources)andproceduresconsideringthevolumesinvolved.Itisfaster&lowercostthancomparablegoodsorservicesprovidedbysuppliers.Ourspeedisfastestandcostsarethelowestintheindustry.Itsspecificationsaretheleastrestrictiveneededtoachievetheobjective.Therearenowaystoreducetime&costthatwehavenotconsidered.Canweusestandardparts,components,approaches?44NotesforUMT48Module7:Time-BoxedScheduling

TimeManagementforSpeedHighschedule&costdisciplineBringinhigherqualityprojectleaderandteammembersInvolvevendors&stakeholdersWorklongerhours&weekends.Addextrashifts.AddpeopletocriticalpathUseextraresourcestocompletenon-criticalpathworkpackagesearly.Freeresourceslater.45NotesforUMT48Module7:Time-BoxedSchedulingDisciplineIncreasesProjectSpeedPositivedefinitionfromtheGreek:totrain,instruct,correctMostresearchaboutteensWhyneeddiscipline: *Humannaturetoresistbeingforced;toquestionauthority *Desirepeerrecognition,attention,power,revenge,feelinadequateMostproblemsareminorandeasytoresolvePeopleandteamswantdiscipline *Expectorderliness *Fewerdistractions *Clearexpectations *Moreproductivity *Reducesstress46UMT1-1Module7:Time-BoxedSchedulingDisciplineIncreasesProjectSpeed(p2)Howdiscipline *Theleaderiskey *Bearolemodel *Bevisible *Acceptresponsibilityfor subordinates’behavior *Signalawareness *Solicitdisciplineinput *Focusontheobjective *Delegatedisciplineauthority *Clearrules,standards, punishments *Treatpeopleasindividuals47UMT1-1Module8:ProjectEvaluation

ObjectivesUnderstandtheimportanceofprojectevaluations*Pre-project*Mid-project*Post-projectEvaluationmethodology48NotesforUMT2Module8:ProjectEvaluation

AuditsGiveanArm’sLength,ObjectiveandIndependentPicture

ofProjectPerformance

TheauditisaformalprocessAudittimingincreaseseffectivenessCompositionoftheauditorsisimportantMeasurethevalueoftheaudit49NotesforUMT14Module8:ProjectEvaluation

ReviewingtheProjectasaManagerStartwiththebigpilesofmoneyDeterminethatthetotalnumbersarelogical Applysimpleratios,heurisms,parametricdataandstandardsReviewthebudget/schedulefoundation&assumptions.Stillvalid?50NotesforUMT15Module8:ProjectEvaluation

KillingProjectsGoneAstray

ThestrategicaspectsofprojectterminationTerminatingtroubledprojectsThefinancialbenefitsofrapidprojecttermination*Freesfundsforother investments*Executemoreprojectswith thesameresources*Generateincremental revenues51NotesforUMT22Module9:ProjectControl

ObjectivesFunctionofcontrolinprojectmanagementUseofvariancesManagementbyexceptioninprojectcontrolVariances:schedule,budget,resourcesToolsforresourcecontrolMeasuringcontroleffectiveness52NotesforUMT2

Module10:EarnedValueManagement

EarnedValue:

MeasuresCostandSchedulePerformancewithMoney

53NotesforUMT2Module10:EarnedValueManagement

EarnedValueFormulasMeasuringCostsBudgetvs.ActualPerformance

*CostVariance(CV)=EV-AC*CostPerformanceIndex(CPI)= EV/AC*EstimateatCompletion(EAC)=BAC/CPI*ToCompletePerformanceIndex(TCPI)= (BAC-EV)/(BAC-AC)MeasuringScheduleForecastedvs.ActualPerformance

*ScheduleVariance(SV)= EV-PV*SchedulePerformanceIndex(SPI)= EV/PV54NotesforUMT2Module10:EarnedValueManagement

CostControl:EarnedValueCV=EV-AC(150-250)=($100,000)CPI=EV/AC(150/250)=.60/60%EAC=BAC/CPI=$1,000,000BAC–EV600-150TCPI===1.28BAC-AC600–250SV=EV-PV=150-200=($50,000)SPI=EV/PV=150/200=.75/75%55NotesforUMT2Module10:EarnedValueManagement

EarnedValueOffersBenefitsforSpecificApplicationsAhighdegreeofaccuracyisrequiredWhenmilestonesaretooinfrequenttouseforscheduleevaluationOnprojectswithoverlappingprojectphaseswheretherearefewconvenientplaceswheremilestonescanbeplacedWhentherearenumeroussub-projectsandthevariouselementsprogressatdifferentrates50/50ruleappliesforactivitiesinprogress56NotesforUMT2Module10:EarnedValueManagement

EarnedValueAllowsContinuousTrackingofPerformance

57NotesforUMT2Module11:ProjectCloseout

DelivertheproductorserviceTerminationcelebrationTerminationchecklistsmaintainprofessionalismKnowledgelibrary.Lessonslearned,projectjournals,keydocumentsCommunicateth