IEA- 2022年全球能源投資報(bào)告 -World Energy Investment 2022-report (2022-06-23)

WorldEnergy

Investment2022

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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PAGE|3

GasMarketReport,Q2-2022

Abstract

Abstract

Thisyear’seditionoftheWorldEnergyInvestmentreportprovidesa

fullupdateontheinvestmentpicturein2021andfull-yearestimates

oftheoutlookfor2022.Itexamineshowinvestorsareassessingrisks

andopportunitiesacrossallareasoffuelandelectricitysupply,

criticalminerals,efficiencyandresearchanddevelopment,againsta

backdropofuncertaintiesoverhoweventswillplayoutin2022,

namelytheongoingwarinUkraine,theoutlookfortheglobal

economy,andinsomecountriesthecontinuingpublichealthrisks

fromthepandemic.

Thereportfocusesonsomeimportantfeaturesofthenewinvestment

landscapewhicharealreadyvisible,includingtheenergysecurity

lensthroughwhichmanyinvestmentsarenowviewed,widespread

costpressures,themajorboostinrevenuesthathighfuelpricesare

bringingtotraditionalsuppliers,andburgeoningexpectationsin

manycountriesthatinvestmentswillbealignedwithsolutionstothe

climatecrisis.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2022

Tableofcontents

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|4

Tableofcontents

Introduction 5

Overviewandkeyfindings 8

Powersector 27

Overviewofpowerinvestment 28

Generation 35

Finalinvestmentdecisions 42

Electricitygridsandbatterystorage 50

Implications 56

Fuelsupply 59

Overview 60

Upstreamoilandgas 65

Midstreamanddownstreamoilandgas 76

Oilandgasindustrytransitions 81

Lowemissionsfuels 86

Coal 98

Implications 103

Criticalmineralsupply 111

Overview 112

Investmenttrends 118

Trendsbyindividualcommodity 123

Implications 132

Energyenduseandefficiency 136

Overview 137

Buildings 145

Transport 152

Industry 159

Implications 164

R&Dandtechnologyinnovation 167

SpendingonenergyR&D 170

Venturecapitalfundingofearly-stageenergytechnologycompanies 180

Implications 191

Finance 194

Overview 195

Sustainablefinance 204

Emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies 213

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Introduction

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|5

Introduction

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Introduction

PAGE|6

Thespotlightisonenergyinvestment,asneverbefore

Highfuelprices,inflationarypressuresandsupplychainbottlenecks,theurgentneedtoacceleratetheenergysector’stransformationtonetzero,andtheRussianinvasionofUkrainearecreatingapotentmixofpressuresandincentivesforenergyinvestors.ThisnewWorldEnergyInvestment2022(WEI2022)reportistheseventhinour

annualseries

whereweprovidetheglobalbenchmarkfortrackingcapitalflowsintheenergysector.Theimportanceofthisissuehasneverbeenhigher,forconsumers,investors,policymakersandtheplanet.

Investmenttrendsinrecentyearshavecontributedtothecrisisthatweseetoday.PreviouseditionsofWEIhaverepeatedlyhighlightedshortfallsinenergyinvestmentandthepossibleimplicationsforenergymarkets,securityandemissions.Forexample,ontheopeningpageof

WEI2019

,theExecutiveDirectorobservedhowouranalysishighlightedseveralmismatchesdemandingahardlookbypolicymakersandotherstakeholders:

“Currentmarketandpolicysignalsarenotincentivisingthemajorreallocationofcapitaltolow-carbonpowerandefficiencythatwouldalignwithasustainableenergyfuture.Intheabsenceofsuchashift,thereisagrowingpossibilitythatinvestmentinfuelsupplywillalsofallshortofwhatisneededtosatisfygrowingdemand.Andtomeetsustainabledevelopmentgoals,muchmoreinvestmentisneededin

theregionsthatfacethehighesteconomicandfinancialconstraints,suchasinsub-SaharanAfrica.”

Theserisksandmismatcheshavebeenexacerbatedintheperiodsince2019.Investmentinenergytransitionshasremainedrelativelyrobust,butisstillfarshortofthelevelsthat–accordingtotheIEA’slandmark

NetZeroby2050Roadmap

–wouldbesufficienttomeetrisingdemandforenergyservicesinasustainableway.Theamountofmoneygoingintotraditionalareasofenergysupply,includingoilandgas,fellfurtherin2020duetotheworldwideshockcausedbytheCovidpandemic.Andtheworsteffectsofthepandemicandtheeconomicslumphavebeenfeltbythemostvulnerablecitizensandcountriesaroundtheworld,pushingmillionsofpeoplebackintoortowardsenergypovertyandlesseningtheinvestmentfundsavailableindevelopingeconomiesforsustainablerecovery;howtoacceleratetheseinvestmentsisthecrucialissueexaminedinthe2021IEA

reporton

financingcleanenergytransitionsinemergingand

developingeconomies

.

Forthesereasons,warningsignsaboutinvestmentinglobalenergywereflashingredwellinadvanceoftheRussianinvasionofUkraine.Russia’saggressionhasnowaddedanotherlayerofexpectationanduncertaintytothepicture.Russiaistheworld’slargestexporterofoilandgas,andthelargestsingleproviderofoil,gasandcoaltoEurope.MeetinginVersaillesinearlyMarch,Europeanleaderscommitted

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Introduction

PAGE|7

themselvestoreducingtheirdependenceontheseRussianimportsassoonaspossible.Followingthroughonthiscommitmentwillhavemomentousimplicationsforenergyinvestmentflows.Inthenearterm,thescrambleforalternativesourcesoffossilfuelscreatesclearopeningsfornon-Russiansuppliers.Buttheseopportunitiesmaybetime-limitedifEuropealsorespondstotoday’scrisiswithadeterminedaccelerationofinvestmentinefficiency,renewablesandothercleantechnologies.

InthenewWEI2022weprovideafullupdateontheinvestmentpicturein2021andaninitialreadingoftheemergingpicturefor2022.Thereremainhugeuncertaintiesoverhoweventswillplayoutin2022,namelytheongoingwarinUkraine,theoutlookfortheglobaleconomy,andinsomecountriesthecontinuingpublichealthrisksfromthepandemic.Butsomeimportantfeaturesofthenewinvestmentlandscapearealreadyvisible,includingtheenergysecuritylensthroughwhichmanyinvestmentsarenowviewed,widespreadcostpressures,themajorboostinrevenuesthathighfuelpricesarebringingtotraditionalsuppliers,andburgeoningexpectationsinmanycountriesthatinvestmentswillbealignedwithsolutionstotheclimatecrisis.

Thestructureofthisyear’sWEI2022isasfollows:

InChapter1wepresenttheoverviewandkeyfindings.Chapter2coversthepowersector,whileChapter3reviewsthelatest

developmentsandtrendsinfuelsupplyinvestment.Chapter4representsanewdeparturefortheWEIincoveringinvestmentincriticalminerals,anincreasinglystrategicaspectofenergytransitions.Chapter5dealswithinvestmentinenergyefficiencyandtheend-usesectors,andChapter6bringsinsightsonenergyresearchanddevelopmentandinnovation.TheconcludingChapter7considerstrendsinenergyfinance.

WhilethefocusofWEI2022istotrackinvestmentandfinancingtrendsin2021andprovideanearlyindicationfor2022,thereportalsobenchmarkstoday’strendsagainstfuturescenariosfromtheIEA

WorldEnergyOutlook2021

.TheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)isbasedontoday’spolicysettingsandconsidersaspirationaltargetsonlyinsofarastheyarebackedbydetailedpolicies.TheAnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS)assumesthatallclimatecommitmentsandnetzerotargetsmadebygovernmentsaroundtheworldwillbemetinfullandontime.TheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZEScenario)setsoutanarrowbutachievablepathwayfortheglobalenergysectortoachievenetzeroCO2emissionsby2050.

ThepreparationofthisreportbenefitedgreatlyfromtheinsightsgainedataworkshopconvenedbytheIEAon8March2022,whichbroughttogetherleadingexpertsandpractitionersfromacrosstheworldofenergyfinance.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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Overviewandkeyfindings

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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BillionUSD(2021)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Energyinvestmentissettopickupby8%in2022againstthebackdropoftheglobalenergy

crisis,butalmosthalfoftheincreaseincapitalspendingislinkedtohighercosts

Globalenergyinvestment

201720182019202020212022E

Enduseand

efficiency

Powersector

Coal,oil,gasandlow-carbonfuelssupply

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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Highprices,risingcosts,economicuncertainty,energysecurityconcernsandclimate

imperativesamounttoapowerfulcocktailoffactorsbearingonglobalenergyinvestment

Investmentiscentraltotacklingthemultiplestrandsoftoday’senergycrisis:torelievepressureonconsumers,togettheworldonanetzeropathway,tospureconomicrecovery,and–forEuropeinparticular–toreducerelianceontheRussiaFederation(hereafter“Russia”)followingitsinvasionofUkraine.Governments,companiesandinvestorsfaceacomplexsituationastheydecidewhichenergyprojectstoback,withurgentshort-termneedsnotautomaticallyalignedwithlong-termgoals.Alotisridingonthesechoices.

Ourupdatedtracking,acrossallsectors,technologiesandregions,suggeststhatworldenergyinvestmentissettoriseover8%in2022toreachatotalofUSD2.4trillion,wellabovepre-Covidlevels.Investmentisincreasinginallpartsoftheenergysector,butthemainboostinrecentyearshascomefromthepowersector–mainlyinrenewablesandgrids–andfromincreasedspendingonend-useefficiency.Investmentinoil,gas,coalandlow-carbonfuelsupplyistheonlyareathat,inaggregate,remainsbelowthelevelsseenpriortothepandemicin2019.Thisisdespitesky-highfuelpricesthataregeneratinganunprecedentedwindfallforsuppliers:netincomefortheworld’soilandgasproducersissettodoublein2022toanunprecedentedUSD4trillion.

AlmosthalfoftheadditionalUSD200billionincapitalinvestmentin2022islikelytobeeatenupbyhighercosts,ratherthanbringingadditionalenergysupplycapacityorsavings.Costsarerisingdueto

multiplesupplychainpressures,tightmarketsforspecialisedlabourandservices,andtheeffectofhigherenergypricesonessentialconstructionmaterialslikesteelandcement.

Thesecostpressuresaremostvisibleinfuelsupply,butareaffectingcleanenergytechnologiesaswell:afteryearsofdeclines,thecostsofsolarpanelsandwindturbinesareupbybetween10%and20%since2020.Concernsaboutcostinflationareabrakeonthewillingnessofcompaniestoincreasespending,despitethestrongpricesignals.

Easingtheburdenonconsumersisanimmediatepriorityformanypolicymakers:thetotalenergybillpaidbytheworld’sconsumersislikelytotopUSD10trillionforthefirsttimein2022,hittingthepoorestpartsofsocietythehardestandputtingpressureongovernmentstocushiontheblowviafiscalmeasuresandpriceinterventions.

Highpricesareencouragingsomecountriestostepupfossilfuelinvestment,astheyseektosecureanddiversifytheirsourcesofsupply.However,thelastingsolutionstotoday’scrisislieinspeedingupcleanenergytransitionsviagreaterinvestmentinefficiency,cleanelectricityandarangeofcleanfuels.Theseelementsarecentral,forexample,totheEuropeanUnion’sREPowerEUplantoreducerelianceonRussia.Therearemanywaystorespondtotheimmediateenergycrisisthatcanpavethewaytoacleanerandmoresecurefuture.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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BillionUSD(2021)

900

600

300

Afterremainingflatforseveralyears,globalcleanenergyspendingisfinallyrampingup

Annualcleanenergyinvestment

1500

1200

201720182019202020212022E

EVs

Low-carbonfuelsand

CCUS

Gridsandstorage

Energyefficiencyandotherenduses

Nuclear

Renewablepower

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:Energyefficiencyandotherend-useincludesspendingonenergyefficiency,renewablesforenduseandelectrificationinthebuildings,transportandindustrysectors.Lowcarbonfuelsincludemodernliquidandgaseousbioenergy,low-carbonhydrogen,aswellashydrogen-basedfuelsthatdonotemitanyCO2fromfossilfuelsdirectlywhenusedandalsoemitverylittlewhenbeingproduced.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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Renewablepower,efficiencyandEVsareleadingthecleanenergypush

Cleanenergyinvestmentis–finally–startingtopickupandisexpectedtoexceedUSD1.4trillionin2022,accountingforalmostthree-quartersofthegrowthinoverallenergyinvestment.TheannualaveragegrowthrateincleanenergyinvestmentinthefiveyearsafterthesignatureoftheParisAgreementin2015wasjustover2%.Since2020theratehasrisento12%,wellshortofwhatisrequiredtohitinternationalclimategoals,butnonethelessanimportantstepintherightdirection.Thehighestcleanenergyinvestmentlevelsin2021wereinChina(USD380billion),followedbytheEuropeanUnion(USD260billion)andtheUnitedStates(USD215billion).

Thegainshavebeenunderpinnedbytheincreasingcost-competitivenessofmanycleanenergytechnologiesandbypolicyandfiscalmeasuresenactedtosupporttransitions,oftenaspartofeffortstoensuresustainablepost-pandemicrecoveries.TheIEASustainableRecoveryTrackerestimatedinearly2022thatgovernmentsworldwideearmarkedUSD710billionforlong-termcleanenergyandsustainablerecoverymeasures.

Renewablepowerisattheheartofthepositivetrend;eventhoughcostshaveriseninrecentmonths,cleantechnologiessuchaswindandsolarPVremainthecheapestoptionfornewpowergenerationinmanycountries,evenbeforeaccountingfortheexceptionallyhighpricesseenin2022forcoalandgas.Renewables,gridsandstoragenowaccountformorethan80%oftotalpowersectorinvestment.

SolarPVmakesupalmosthalfofnewinvestmentinrenewablepower,withspendingdividedequallybetweenutility-scaleprojectsanddistributedsolarPVsystems.Thefocusforwindpowerisshiftingoffshore:whereas2020wasarecordyearforonshoredeployment,2021wasarecordyearforoffshore,withmorethan20GWcommissionedandaroundUSD40billionofexpenditure.

Investmentinimprovedefficiencyisanothermajorgrowtharea,drivenbyhigherfuelpricesandgovernmentincentives.A16%increaseinbuildingsefficiencyinvestmentin2021ledtheway,byfarthelargestannualincreasesincewestartedtrackingtheseinvestmentflows.Policymakersareattemptingtomovetheglobalannualrateofbuildingretrofitsabovethe1%mark,whereithasbeenstuckformanyyears,andmanycountries,notablyJapan,ChinaandsomeinEurope,areputtingincreasingemphasisonhighenergyperformancestandardsfornewconstruction.

Theupwardtrendinefficiencyspendingisexpectedtobemaintainedin2022.Thespikeinfuelpricesispromptingincreasinginterestintechnologieslikeelectricheatpumps(salesofwhichgrewby15%in2021).However,efficiencyinvestmentfacesheadwinds,withhigherborrowingcosts,flathouseholdincomes,andlowerconsumerandbusinessconfidence.Asever,muchhingesoncontinuedgovernmentsupporttoshapeconsumerandcorporatedemand.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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Electrificationofmobilityisakeycontributortorisingcleanend-usespendingbyconsumers.SalesofEVsmorethandoubledin2021onthepreviousyearandarecontinuingtorisestronglyin2022.Backin2012just120000EVsweresoldworldwide.In2021morethanthatnumberweresoldeachweek.Oneuncertaintyiswhetherautomakerscankeepupwithorders,givensupplychainissues(seesectiononcriticalminerals)andtheglobalsemiconductorshortage.

Electrificationisnotonlyaboutcars;salesofelectrictwo-andthree-wheelershavebeenbouyant,andinvestmentintheelectrificationofbusesandcommercialvehiclesisalsostrong.MostelectricbusesarestilldeployedinChina,butinvestmentelsewhereisgrowing:inearly2022Indiaorderedmorethan5000electricbusesforfivemajorcities,awardedathalfthepricereachedinprevioustenders.

Therearesignsoflifeamongimportantnewandemergingtechnologies,whereabsoluteinvestmentremainsrelativelysmallbutgrowthratesarehigh.

?InvestmentinbatteryenergystorageishittingnewhighsandisexpectedtomorethandoubletoreachalmostUSD20billionin

2022.Thisisledbygrid-scaledeployment,whichrepresentedmorethan70%oftotalspendingin2021.Thepipelineofprojectsisimmense,withChinatargetingaround30GWofnon-hydroenergystoragecapacityby2025andtheUnitedStateshavingmorethan20GWofgrid-scaleprojectseitherplannedorunderconstruction.

?Themomentumbehindlow-emissionshydrogenhasbeenreinforcedbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,whichhasbolsteredpolicysupport,especiallyinEurope.Cleanhydrogen-focusedcompaniesareraisingmoremoneythaneverbefore,andthevalueofaportfolioofleadingfirmsinthisspacehasquadrupledsincetheendof2019.Annualinvestmentinlow-carbonhydrogenstandsataroundUSD0.5billion;tosupplytheextra15MtofhydrogentargetedintheREPowerEUplan,weestimatethatcumulativecapitalinvestmenttotallingaroundUSD600billiongloballywouldbeneededupto2030,with60%ofthisforinfrastructureoutsidetheEuropeanUnion.

?Plansforaround130commercial-scaleCO2captureprojectsin

20countrieswereannouncedin2021.TheyaimtocaptureCO2fromarangeofapplications,includinghydrogenandbiofuelproduction,whichcombinedaccountforalmosthalfofnewlyannouncedprojects.Investmenthasalsorisen,toaroundUSD1.8billionin2021,assixCCUSprojectstookFIDlastyear.SignificantamountsofprivatecapitalarestartingtoflowtoyoungcompanieswithcostlytechnologiestoremoveCO2fromtheairandstoreoruseit.

Themomentumbehindearly-stageemergingtechnologiesisbeingmaintainedbyrisingpublicfundingsupportforenergyinnovation.Start-upsintheUnitedStatesandEuropehaveraisedrecordfunds,inparticularforpromisingenergystorage,hydrogenandrenewableenergytechnologies.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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BillionUSD(2021)

500

400

300

200

100

Majorregionalvariationsincleanenergyinvestmenttrendsunderlinetheriskofnewdividing

linesonenergyandclimate

Per-capitacleanenergyinvestment(left)and

annualchangeincleanenergyinvestment(right),byregion,2020-2022E

.

600

2020

2021

2022E

AdvancedeconomiesChina

BillionUSD(2021)

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

-25

2020

2021

2022E

Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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Acceleratinginvestmentinemerginganddevelopingeconomiesisessentialtoboostenergy

transitionsandenergysecurity

WhileglobalcleanenergyinvestmentisnowwellabovewhereitwasatthetimetheParisAgreementwassigned,therisehasbeenconcentratedinadvancedeconomiesandChina.Cleanenergyspendinginemerginganddevelopingeconomies(excludingChina)remainsstuckat2015levels.Thesefundsgofurtherthantheyusedto,astechnologycostsaresignificantlylowerthantheywere,andtherearesomebrightspots–utility-scalerenewablesinIndia,windanddistributedPVinBrazil,amongothers.Butoverall,therelativeweaknessofcleanenergyinvestmentacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldisoneofthemostworryingtrendsrevealedbyouranalysis.

Investmentinmanyemerginganddevelopingeconomiesismoredependentonpublicsources;state-ownedenterprisesaccountforaroundhalfofenergyinvestmentintheseeconomies.Butpublicfundsaretypicallyscarce,manystate-ownedutilitesarehighlyindebtedandaworseningglobaleconomicoutlookreducesgovernments’abilitytofundenergyprojects.Ofthestimulusspendingmobilisedtosupportasustainablerecovery,morethan90%isinadvancedeconomies.Highcostsofcapitalandrisingborrowingcoststhreatentoundercuttheeconomicattractivenessofcapital-intensivecleantechnologies:anincreaseof2percentagepointsinthecostofcapitalforsolarPVandwindcanleadtoa20%increaseinoveralllevelisedcosts.

Mostofthepositivetrendsincleanenergyinvestmentleavedevelopingeconomiesbehind.Virtuallyalloftheglobalincreaseinspendingonrenewables,gridsandstoragesince2020hastakenplaceelsewhere.Morethan80%ofEVsalesareconcentratedinChinaandEurope;morethan90%ofglobalspendingonpublicEVrecharginginfrastructureisinChina,EuropeandtheUnitedStates.

Highpricesareabluntinstrumenttofostermoresustainablechoices,especiallyinpoorercountries,intheabsenceofsupportivepolicies.Thereisarealriskthattoday’senergycrisiswillpushmillionsbacktowardsenergypoverty:nearly90millionpeopleinAsiaandAfricawhohadpreviouslygainedaccesstoelectricity,cannolongeraffordtopayfortheirbasicenergyneeds.

Muchmoreneedstobedonetobridgethegapbetweenemerginganddevelopingeconomies’one-fifthshareofglobalcleanenergyinvestment,andtheirtwo-thirdsshareoftheglobalpopulation.Additionalfinancialandtechnicalsupport,includingconcessionalcapital,privatesectorcapital,andinflowsfrominternationalcarbonmarkets,willallbecrucial.Ifcleanenergyinvestmentdoesnotrapidlypickupinemerginganddevelopingeconomies,theworldwillfaceamajordividinglineineffortstoaddressclimatechangeandreachothersustainabledevelopmentgoals.

WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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BillionUSD(2021)

60

40

20

TheenergycrisisandRussia’sinvasionofUkrainearespurringnewinvestmentinfuels,

includinganexpansionofcoalsupplyinemergingAsianeconomies

Changeinfuelsupplyinvestment,2019-2022E

Coalsupply

Upstreamoilandnaturalgas

600

500

400

300

200

100

120

100

80

60

40

20

Refining

120

100

80

Liquefiednaturalgas

120

100

80

60

40

20

Low-carbonfuels

120

100

80

60

40

20

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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BillionUSD(2021)

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Thereisawiderangeofinvestmentstrategiesacrossdifferentpartsoftheoilandgasindustry;

onlytheMiddleEastNOCsareplanningtospendmorein2022thanin2019

Changeininvestmentbydifferentgroupingsofoilandgascompanies,2022Evs2019

Europeanmajors

Russian

ChineseNOCs

OtherNOCs

US

majors

companies

MiddleEast

NOCs

InvestmentincleantechnologiesInvestmentintraditionaloilandgasactivities

Independents

Netchange

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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WorldEnergyInvestment2022

Overviewandkeyfindings

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Fossilfuelinvestmentisrespondingtopricesignals,butwithsomehesitation

Investmentinfossilfuelsisonarisingtrend,butisstillalmost30%belowwhereitwaswhentheParisAgreementwassigned.Thecyclicalincen