2022年印度快遞物流業(yè)報告（英）

4

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Editor&Publisher

TariqAhmed

ArtDirector

ShaiqueAhmad

Lead-BusinessDevelopment

GauravDubey

DirectorSales&Marketing

ParminderSingh

CONTENTS

Foreword

?India&Economy5

?IndianLogisticsIndustryandMarket

Overview6

?IndianExpressIndustryBackground

andOverview15

?ExpressIndustryValueChain17

?ExpressIndustrySegmentation19

DOMESTIC

?SurfaceB2B21

?AirB2B25

?B2C/E-commerce27

?Documents31

OTHERRELATEDSUB-SEGMENTS32

?Reverselogistics

?Retail

?InternationalAir

?Railway

?IndiaPost

?KeyendusersegmentinExpress

Industry35

?GrowthDriversofExpressLogistics38

?TechnologyTrendinExpress40

?RegulationandGovernmentSupport42

?FutureOutlook44

?MajorPlayers46

3

Foreword

L

ogisticsisanintegralactivityforeconomicgrowthas itinvolvesthemanagementofflowofgoodsfromthe placeoforiginationtotheplaceofconsumption.The sectorcomprisesshipping,portoperation,warehousing, rail,road,airfreight,expresscargoandothervalue-addedservices.Businessesneedlogisticsservicesforreachingouttotheircustomerswithinthetighttimelinesanddeliveringproducts.Theexpressindustry,bycreatingandintegratingdoortodoorlinkageacrossdomesticandinternationalregionsalongwithshipmenttrackingfacilities,servestheneedfortimesensitivelogisticsservice.SurfaceexpresslogisticsisthedominantmodeoftransportationfollowedbyairexpressinIndia.

GovernmentinitiativestodevelopinfrastructureandimplementingnewtaxregimeGSThavechangedtheexpresslogisticsbusiness.WiththeintroductionofGST,interstatetransportationhasbecomemoreefficientduetoremovingmultipletaxesinstateandcentral.Logisticssectorislikelytogetincreaseinupcomingyears.ExpressLogisticscompaniesinIndiaaremovingfromtraditionalsetupstowardsintegrationofITandtechnologyandthisisexpectedtoreducethecostsincurredandmeetservicesdemands.Government’sinitiative"MakeinIndia"isexpectedtoboostthemanufacturingsectorto10%growth.EXIMCargo,Agriculture,textile,autoandautoancillaryetchavebeenidentifiedastraditionalgrowthdriverstodemandforExpress&warehousesspaceinIndia.Furthermore,boominge-commercemarketismajorgrowthdriverforExpressLogistics.

Spurredbypolicychangesandinfraupgrade,thelogisticsindustryisexpectedtogrowat10-12%CAGRinthenearterm,improvingIndia’scompetitiveness.Withapick-upindemand,thelogisticsmarket,peggedat~$250bn,isexpectedtogrowat10-12%CAGR,to$380bnbyFY25.

JointForewordfromChairandCo-Chair,ICCRegionalCouncil

Mr.InderdeepSingh

Mr.DheerajPuri

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INDIA&

ECONOMY

TheGlobalEconomyisexpectedtoexpand4%intheyear2021afteraroughyearaffectedbythepandemic,whichresultedincontractionof4.3%.Indiaisoneofthefastestgrowingeconomyandisexpectedtobeoneofthetopthreeeconomicpowersintheworldby2035supportedbyitsyoungdemographicsandstrongdemocracy.EventhoughCOVID-19wasahugejoltontheIndianeconomy,therehasbeenastrongrecovery.India'sGDPhascontractedbyarecord7.3%during2020-21asCOVID-19pandemicseverelyhitthekeymanufacturingandservicessegments,aspergovernmentprojection.IndianeconomyhasshownVshapedrecoveryin2021withthereturnofconsumerconfidence,robustfinancialmarkets,anuptickinmanufacturingandexportersbravingitoutintheglobalmarketwithnever-say-diespirit.India’sGDPis2.59TrillionUSDandaccordingtotargetsetbygovernment,GDPisexpectedtotouch5TrillionUSDby2025.India’spercapitaGDPwasameager82$in1960andtodayhasreached2100$USDaccordingtoWorldBankdata.

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INDIANLOGISTICS

INDUSTRY&MARKETOVERVIEW

L

ogisticssectorgloballyhasamarketsizeofoverUSD5.2trillionasperareportfromIMARCgroup.Onanaverage,sectoraccountsforanywherebetween8–20%invariouscountry'sGDP.LogisticscostsinIndiaarehigherthanthoseindevelopedcountries.USAspends9.5percentoftheGDPonlogisticswhileGermanyisevenmorecompetitivewithashareofeightpercent.HigherlogisticscostsinIndiacouldbeascribedtothelackofefficientinter-modalandmulti-modaltraditionalsystemstherebypresentingsignificantfuturescopefordevelopmentandefficiency.

Indiahasthesecond-largestpopulationintheworldwith1.38billionpeopleanditslogisticsmarketisestimatedtobearound$210Billion.ThedomesticlogisticsmarketisgrowingatafasterpacethantheeconomyandisexpectedtomaintainitsCAGRof8-10%incomingyears.Aspervariousreportslogisticssectorcontributesaround13%ofGDP.Lastdecadehaswitnessedmultifoldchangesinlogisticslandscape

likeimplementationofGST,improvementinroadinfrastructureandhighdegreeofautomationleadingtoimprovementinlogisticsefficiency.Itisestimatedthatthesereformshaveledtoaround200to300BPSimprovementinoveralllogisticscosttoGDPratio.Goingforwardwealsoexpectreductioninit,asaresultantoffollowingfacts

?FasttrackingwesternDFCandannouncingthreenewDFC’s

?Sagarmalaprojecttopromoteinlandwaterwaytransport

?MakeinIndiainitiativetoprovideindustrialclustersalongthekeylogisticroutes

?Scheduledtrainstolowerleadtime

?Increaseinin-housedevelopmentofsoftware

?UsageofRFID’storealtimetracking

?Techbasedsecuritytoreducepilferage

?Increasefocusonservicesinadditiontotimeandcostbycorporates

LockdownimposedduetoCOVID-19wasahugeshockontheIndianEconomyaswellastheIndianlogisticsIndustry.Theimpactwasespeciallyseriousfortransportationsectorin

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theinitialfewweeks,duetostrictrestrictionsonmovementofgoodsvehiclelimitingtoonlyessentials.LogisticssectoralsofacedintenselaborcrisisininitialmonthsofFY21.However,workforcereturnedandresumedtheirrespectivedutiesafter2-3monthsoflockdown.Aslockdownswereliftedacrossthecountry,thelogisticsindustry,incohesionwiththeeconomyshowedhighdegreeofresilience.IntheyearofpandemicinFY21totalcargovolumeforIndianrailwayhasregisteredagrowthof2%involumeand

3%inrevenuetermswithaloadof1232Mnton^.Aftersharpdipine-waybillsgenerationduringApril2020,itwitnessedaconsistentgrowthpostlockdownandinthemonthofmarchFY21ittouchedtheever-highestfigureof71.2millione-waybills.SimilarlyinEXIM,internationaltradesufferedsignificantlybecauseoflockdownaroundtheworldandinIndiaaswell.But,asthelockdownswereliftedacrosstheworld,thetotalexportshipmentsgrewby60.29%to$34.45billioninmarch21

India'slogisitcsmarketsize

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

160

215

320

FY20

FY17

FY25P*

Source:EconomicsurveyFY17-18,Ministryofcommerce

*EstimateofFY25byAviralResearch

whencomparedwithmarch20.Also,importsgrewby53.74%to$48.38billioninmarch21whencomparedwithmarch20.

IndianLogisticsmarketforFY2020wasestimatedtobe$215bnineconomicsurveyof2017-2018,Ourresearchhasestimatedlogisticsmarkettotouch$320bnby2025.

ThelogisticssectorinIndiacanbedividedintofollowingcategories:

1.)Transportation

2.)Warehousing

3.)ValueAdded/OtherServices

Outofthesecomponents,transportationaccountforthelargestpie.InIndiancontextoutoftotallogisticscostshareoftransportationandwarehousingislowercomparedtodevelopedmarketlikeUS.Thisisduetolowcostoftransportationandhighcontributionofcostduetowastages&inefficiencies.Butthescenariosarechangingovertimesandwastagesinlogisticscostaregettingreduced.^.in

Atpresent,thelogisticsmarketisdominatedbyroadtransportationsectorandthetrendisexpectedtocontinueinfuture.Shareofroadtransportationisaround60%oftotalcargomovementintermsoftonnageinspiteofitbeingthesecondcostliestmodeoftransport.Tilttowardsurfacehasincreasedgraduallyinlast7decades.Inyear1950useofrailwasaroundmorethan80%inmodalmixandwhichhascomedowntoaround31%inpresenttime.SuchahighpercentageshareofroadcargomovementisincontrastwithothercountriessuchasChina(30%),theUS(37%),andEurope(~10%).However,lackofspeed,multi-modalconnectivity,andlast-milereachmakeothermodessignificantlylesspreferableinthenearterm.

^IndustryEstimated

CARGO:9.8%

494

728

1287

2026

31%

8%

1%

AReportonIndianExpressLogisticsIndustry2022

AccordingtoareportbyMcKinsey,wastagecausedbyinefficienciescontributesto4.3%ofGDP,and,ifnotcorrected,canincreaseto5%ofGDPor$100Bn.

PercentageOfModalMix

60%

Source:EstimatedbyAviralresearch

Railways31%Surface60%Waterways8%Air1%

RoadFreight(BTKM)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

2000-012005-062010-112015-16

Source:.in

OnanalyzingBTKMofroadvsrail,

dataclearlyindicatefastergrowth

ofRoadtransportwithaCAGRof

9.8%intermsofBTKM,whiletheRail

freighthasregisteredmereCAGR

1.1%inlast10years.

ThesurfacetransportationsectorisexpectedtogrowataCAGRofmorethan8%therebybecomingthefastestgrowingareaofIndia’sinfrastructuresector(notconsideringtheshort-termeffectsofCOVID-19).TherevenueofsurfaceTransportationsectoris$140*Bn.Thetransportationsectorcanbefurtherdividedintothefollowing:

I.FullTruckLoad

II.PartTruckLoad

III.Express

*Industryestimate

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Segmentshare

3%

Express

7%

PartTruckLoad

90%

FullTruckLoad

Source:AviralResearch

Wewillbedealingwiththeexpresssegmentlateronindetailinreport.

?FullTruckLoad(FTL):Dedicatedtruckforpoint-to-pointdelivery.

?PartTruckLoad(PTL):Lessthantruckloadisusedfortransportationofsmallfreightbywayofconsolidationorwhenfreightdoesn’trequiretheuseofanentiretruck.

TheFTLmarketisthemajorcontributortotheTransportationsector.TheFTLmarketintermsofrevenueisestimatedtobeatUSD120Billion*andisexpectedtogrowattherateof7-8%incomingyear.ThereisahighlevelofcompetitionintheFTLmarketwhichhasresultedindecliningprofitmarginovertheyears.ThetraditionalplayersintheFTLmarketarefacingincreasingcompetitionfromthetechenabledstartups.

AftertheFTL,PTListhesecondlargestcontributortotheIndianSurfacetransportationsectorintermsofrevenue.Itisestimatedtobearound$12Bn^andhasanannualgrowthrateof8-10%.ThereisarisingdemandforParttruckloadservicesacrossthecountry.TheparttruckloadbusinessisacomplexbusinesscomparedtoFTLandhaschallengeslinkedtonetworkandloadpattern.IncomparisontoFTL,therearefewerPTLplayerswithanestablishednetworkandnationalpresence.

Thetruckingindustryisalsohighlyunorganizedandfragmented.70%ofthetruckownershaveafleetoflessthanfivetrucks.InlastfewyearsashifthasbeennoticedinFTLsegmentfromunorganizedtosemiorganizedsector.Incertainscenarios,fewsmalltruckownersjoinedtogetherforadoptionoftechnologyandofferingafleetservicetoorganizedplayers.Inotherscenario,thesesmallfleetownersaregettingattachedwithsomelargeaggregatororserviceproviderasavendortothem.Althoughthismodelcommandsasmallshareinoverallpieassemiorganizedmarket,buttrendisgettingmomentum.

^*IndustryEstimated

CARG:1.1%

RailfreightinBTKM

720

700

680

660

640

620

600

600

580

560

2009-10

Source:MinistryofRailways

2019-20

670

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Railway

sector,privateplayersarepermittedonlyincontainertransportation,theIndianrailwayshasamonopolywhenitcomestorailnetwork,operationandotherinfrastructure.InIndia,passengertrainsreceivepreferenceonrailwayroutesandasaresult,containertrainsusuallyendupclockingpaltry25-35kmphmileage.Thisisbecauseofthefactthatfreighttrainssharethesamerailwayinfrastructureasthepassengertrains.However,duringcovidlockdownperiod,averagespeedoffreighttrainsincreasedsignificantly.WithstartofDedicatedFreightCorridor(DFC)averagespeedoffreighttrainsonDFCwillbemorethandouble.Improvementinefficiencyandreductionintransittimewillboosttorailfreightmarketinfuture.

Indiahastheworld’sfourthlargestrail

networkafterUS,China,andRussia.Railways

afterroadwaysaccountforsecondhighest

percentageofgoodsmovedintermsof

volume.Ascanbeseenfromthecargo

movement-modalmix,railwaysnearlyaccount

for31%oftheentiremodalmovementacross

thecountry.Whiletherailwayscanbeoneof

thecheapestoptionintermsoflong-distance

movementofgoods,concernsregardingtime

sensitivityandsafetyofthegoodsremain.

Also,therehasbeenanunderinvestment

intherailwaysanditsshareintermsoftotal

freightcarriedhasdeclinedovertheyears

whereastheshareofroadwayshasincreased

overtheyears.Thisisduetothefactthatthere

hasbeenasubstantialprivateinvestmentin

commercialvehicles.Whereasintherailways

PercentageShareofIndian

RailwaysinCargoMovements

50

45

40

36

30

30

20

10

0

1985-862020-212029-30

Source:AviralResearch

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Waterway

Waterwaysaccountforatotalofonly

8%ofcargomovementinIndia.Watertransportationhasadefiniteedgeoverothermodes,intermsofpossessingthehighestcarryingcapacityandbeingthebestsuitedforlongdistancecarriageofbulkygoodsatlowestcost.Indiahasahugecoastlineof7517KMandissurroundedonthreesidesbythesea.Indiahasintotal11majorand168minor/intermediateportsacrossthecountry.ThiscreateshugescopeformovementofcargoalongtheIndiancoast.Therearemanyadvantagesofcoastalshippingrangingfromcostsavingtotheshippertoreductionofroadtrafficandcarbonemission.Accordingtogovernment,Indiahaswitnessedagrowthof11.3%ofcargomovementoncoastalroutesfrom2015-16to2018-19.Thetotalcargomovementisexpectedtoreach250MTPAby2025.CoastalshippingisidealforcommoditieslikePetroleum,Oil,lubricant,constructionmaterial,drybulkcargolikefoodgrains,fertilizers,steel,coalandminerals.

Inordertoimprovetheshareofcoastalshippingandinlandwaterways,government

hastakenseveralmajorinitiatives,whichinturnwillincreasetheshareintermsoftotalmodalmixcargomovement.

Indiahasapproximately14,500kmofnavigablewaterwayscomprisingofrivers,canals,backwaters,creeksetcwhichhassignificantgrowthpotential,asamodeoftransportation.InordertodevelopthismodeGovernmentofIndiaestablishedInlandWaterwaysAuthorityofIndia(IWAI)underMinistryofShippingin1986todevelopandregulatetheinlandwaterwaysforshippingandnavigation.HugeinvestmentisbeingplannedtodevelopNationalWaterwayswithnearly`2,000croreinvestedinNationalWaterway-1.OfthethreemultimodalterminalstobebuiltontheGangaRiverunderJMVP,theoneatVaranasiinUPandSahibganjinJharkhandarealreadyoperational.WorkonthethirdterminalatHaldiaandanewnavigationlockatFarakka(bothinWestBengal)isoninfullswing.GovernmentdatashowsthatcargomovementbyIWThasincreasedto72.31mtinfiscal2019from55.03mtinfiscal2018withplanstopushitupto150mtby2025.

source:.in/projects/coastal-shipping-inland-waterways

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Airway

1.)DedicatedAircargo:Thesearededicated

freighterforaircargo.

2.)BellyCargoMovement:Thismovementof

cargousuallytakesplaceinthebellyofthecommercialplanes

Roleofaircargoisverycriticalduetoitsefficiencyintransittimes.Inspiteofbeingmultipletimescostlierthanothermodes,itprovestoinevitableformanyproductcategories.Theinternationalaircargoindustryishighlyorganizedduetoregulationsofinternationalbody(IATA).Morethan75%oftheairfreightmarketinIndiaiswithorganizedplayers.

Whilethefocushasbeenmostlyon-air

passengermarketinIndia,aircargosegmentis

alsoanimportantpartofIndia’sgrowthstory.

Theairwaysshareofthemodalmixaccountsfor

lessthan2%ofthetotal.Thematerialswhich

arecarriedbytheairforcargomovementare

mostlyitemswhicharetimesensitiveinnature

likePharmaceuticals,Healthcare,Electronics,

wirelesstelephony,andAutomotiveSpares

etcapartfromhorticultureandperishable.For

non-timesensitivecargomovementofgoods,

airwaysarenotpreferredasitisexpensive

whencomparedtoothermodesoftransport.

Thecargomovementbyairtakesplaceby

followingways:

AirfreightinMillionMetricTonnes(mmt)

0.841.44

1.21

2.14

2.28

3.35

FY2018

FY2014

1.36

2.2

1.33

2

3.563.33

FY2019

FY2020

Source:

Domestic

InternationalTotal

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10%

24%

10%

Warehousing

ThewarehousingmarketinIndiaisestimatedtobeworth12billionUSDin2020^andisgrowingatafasterpace.Thewarehousinghasattractedmorethan$6.5Bninvestmentsince2017andmarketisexpectedtoattractmoreinvestmentinnext5years.Intermsoflandavailabilityfordevelopment,warehousinghasapotentialFSIof500mnsqftacrossthemajor8citiesinIndia,whileexistingstockacrossthesecitiesis307mnsqft^^.ThegrowthinwarehousingmarketisdrivenbyvariousfactorssuchasrisingshareofIndia’sbusinessesintheinternationalmarkets,demandforgreaterstorage,riseine-commercebusinesses,etc.

PostGSTimplementation,companieswhichhadanetworkofsmallwarehousesduetotaxefficiencies,havestartedshiftingandprioritizinglargerwarehouseinmorestrategiclocations.

Warehousingmarketdemandisdrivenbythegrowthinmanufacturing,retail,

FMCG,e-commerceandlogisticssectors.Furthermore,supportivegovernmentpoliciessuchasGST,easyclearancesforland,100%FDI,establishmentoflogisticparks/MMLPandFTWZareexpectedtobeamajordriverforthesector.GSTimplementationhasledtotheremovalofcheckpointstherebydiminishingstateboundariesandcreatedawayforsettinguplargeefficientwarehouses.

3PLande-commercearethelargestlessorsofthewarehousingspacewithmorethan60%share.Thisisinlinewiththetrendofmoreandmorecompaniesoutsourcingtheirnon-corebusinessoperationstoexpertsandfocusingonthecoreareaforfastergrowth.

Thistrendofoutsourcingto3PLisexpectedtocontinueinfuture.E-commercehasrisensignificantlyinIndiaoverthelast10yearsandthisunprecedentedrisehasmadee-commerceamajoruserofthewarehousingsegment.The3PLmarketisestimatedtobewortharoundUSD$8Bn.

Industry/sector’scontributionin3PLmarket

25%

AutoComponent

2%

Engineering

24%

E-commerce

5%

FMCG/FMCD/CD

Source:EstimatebyAviralResearch

Pharmaceuticals

OrganisedRetail

Others

^IndustryEstimate

^^Indiawarehousingmarketreport2020byKnightFrank

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ValueAdded/Other

Services

Ascustomerdemandforcustomizedproductgrows,thecontributionandimportanceofvalue-addedservicestotheoverallsupplychainalsogrows.Valueaddedservicesmaketheoverallsupplychainandlogisticsnetworksmootherandmoreefficient.Valueadded/Otherservicescoverrangeofactivitiessuchascustomclearing,Logisticspackaging,Inventorymanagement,Materialhandlingequipment,etc.

Customclearing:Today,forinternationaltradeandbusinessestorunefficiently,customclearingisoneofthemostimportantpartsoftheprocess.Customclearing

isacomplexandtime-drainingprocessthatrequiresheftydocumentations,co-ordination.However,nowadaysmanyestablishedcompaniesandstartupsareusingtechnologicalplatformstomaketheprocessmoresimplified.Automationofcustomshashelpedthesectorandmadetheoperationssimpler.

FreightForwarding:FreightForwardingisabusinessoforganizingshipmentsforindividuals/corporationstotransportmaterialsfrommanufacturertooverseascustomer.Thefreightforwarderactsasalinkbetweenlinerandtheshipper.Freightforwarderfacilitatestheprocessandquotestheratetothecustomerafteraddinghismargin.Tech-enabledstartupsaredisruptingthetraditionalprocesses.Forexample,Cogoport,anonlinelogisticsmarketplace,aggregatesoceanandairlinefreightcarriersforexportersaswellimporters.Cogoportalsooffersfreightcomparisonofvariousplayersthatbidthroughforfreight.Thus,customercanselectfromthedifferentbidsaccordingtotheirsuitability.

LogisticsPackaging:Packagingplaysanintegralroleintheoverallsupplychain.Properpackagingservicesareacriticalcomponentforthecompaniesbeforethegoodsaredeliveredtothecustomer.

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EXPRESSINDUSTRY

BACKGROUND&OVERVIEW

T

heexpressindustrystartedintheUnitedStatesin1850swhentheUnitedStatesCongresssanctionedoverlandstageroutethatcarriedmailandotherparcels.Induecourse,theindustrymovedoutoftheUnitedStatesandbecameaglobalindustry.Astradeincreased,theroleoftheexpressindustryintheglobalenvironmentgrewevenmoresignificant.Initiallytheexpressdeliverymainlycomprisedofdocumentsandparcelwhicharehighvalueandlowweightitems.Subsequentlyascustomerdemandforontimedeliveryincreased,theuseofexpressdeliveryservicesbyotherindustriesalsoincreased.Todaytheglobalexpressmarketiswortharound225USDbillion^andhasaCAGRof4%^.

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

225

GlobalExpressMarketinUSDBn

GlobalExpressMarket

280

198

FY2016

FY2020

FY2025

(Note:AviralResearch2020and2025estimatedbasedongrowthrate)

Theinternationalairexpressmarketisdominatedbylargeglobalplayers.Asperfewglobalresearch,theinternationalaircargoisexpectedtogrowattherateof4-5%innextfiveyears.Threekeyplayersareasfollow:

1]DeutschePostAG(DHL):Dalsey,HillblomandLynnorDHLwasfoundedintheyear1969,byAdrainDalsey,

LarryHillblomandRobertLynn,inSanFrancisco.ThecompanyinitiallybeganitsoperationbytransportingcargodocumentsfromSanFranciscotoHonolulubyplanetherebyreducingthewaitingtimesintheharbor.Lateron,DHLbecameawhollyownedsubsidyofDeutschePostin2002.Lateron,in2005,DHLacquiredExelfor5.5billioneuros.TodayDHLhasexpandedtoover220countriesandterritoriesworldwideandhas5,70,000employeesworldwide.Theestimatedrevenueis66billioneuros.

^IndustryEstimated

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2]UnitedParcelService(UPS):UPSwasstartedin1907witha$100loanbyJimCaseyandClaudeRyaninseattle.

ItsubsequentlyexpandedintodifferentcitiesacrossAmericaandlateronintheworld.Today,UPShasanetworkcoveringover220