國外組織行為學(xué)課件皮爾森ch

Chapter11DecisionMakingCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.LearningObjectivesDefinedecisionmakinganddifferentiatewell-structuredandill-structuredproblems.Compareandcontrastperfectlyrationaldecisionmakingwithdecisionmakingunderboundedrationality.Discusstheimpactofframingandcognitivebiasesonthedecisionprocess.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.LearningObjectives4. Explaintheprocessofescalationofcommitmenttoanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.5. Considerhowemotionsandmoodaffectdecisionmaking.Summarizetheprosandconsofusinggroupstomakedecisions,withattentiontothegroupthinkphenomenonandriskassessment.Discusstechniquesforimprovingorganizationaldecisionmaking.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.WhatIsDecisionMaking?Decisionmakingistheprocessofdevelopingacommitmenttosomecourseofaction.Threethingsarenoteworthyaboutdecisionmaking:Itinvolvesmakingachoiceamongseveralactionalternatives.Itisaprocess.Itinvolvesacommitmentofresources.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.WhatIsDecisionMaking?(continued)Decisionmakingcanalsobedescribedasaprocessofproblemsolving.Aproblemexistswhenagapisperceivedbetweensomeexistingstateandsomedesiredstate.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.Well-StructuredProblemsAproblemforwhichtheexistingstateisclear,thedesiredstateisclear,andhowtogetfromonestatetoanotherisfairlyobvious.Theseproblemsaresimple,andtheirsolutionsarouselittlecontroversy.Theyarerepetitiveandfamiliarandtheycanbeprogrammed.Aprogramisastandardizedwayofsolvingaproblem.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.Well-StructuredProblems(continued)Programsshort-circuitthedecision-makingprocessbyenablingthedecisionmakertogodirectlyfromproblemidentificationtosolution.Theyarealsoknownasrules,routines,standardoperatingprocedures,orrulesofthumb.Theyprovideausefulmeansofsolvingwellstructuredproblems.Programsareonlyasgoodasthedecision-makingprocessthatledtotheadoptionoftheprograminthefirstplace.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.Ill-StructuredProblemAproblemforwhichtheexistinganddesiredstatesareunclearandthemethodofgettingtothedesiredstateisunknown.Uniqueandunusualproblemsthathavenotbeenencounteredbefore.Theytendtobecomplexandinvolveahighdegreeofuncertainty.Theyfrequentlyarousecontroversyandconflict.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.Ill-StructuredProblem(continued)Theycannotbesolvedwithprogrammeddecisions.Decisionmakersmustresorttonon-programmeddecisionmaking.Theycanentailhighriskandstimulatestrongpoliticalconsiderations.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.TheCompleatDecisionMaker–ARationalDecision-MakingModelArationaldecisionmakermightuseamodelthatinvolvesasequenceofstepsthatarefollowedwhenmakingadecision.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.TheRationalDecisionMakingProcessCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.PerfectRationalityPerfectrationalityisadecisionstrategythatiscompletelyinformed,perfectlylogical,andorientedtowardeconomicgain.TheprototypeforperfectrationalityistheEconomicPersonwhoistheperfect,cool,calculatingdecisionmaker.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.PerfectRationality(continued)EconomicPersoncharacteristics:cangatherinformationwithoutcostandiscompletelyinformed;isperfectlylogical;andonlycriterionfordecisionmakingiseconomicgain.Theseperfectlyrationalcharacteristicsdonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.BoundedRationalityHerbertSimonrecognizedthattherationalcharacteristicsofEconomicPersondonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.Hesuggestedthatmanagersuseboundedrationality.Boundedrationalityisadecisionstrategythatreliesonlimitedinformationandthatreflectstimeconstraintsandpoliticalconsiderations.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.BoundedRationality(continued)Framingandcognitivebiasesillustratetheoperationofboundedrationality,asdoestheimpactofemotionsandmoodondecisions.Framingreferstotheaspectsofthepresentationofinformationaboutaproblemthatareassumedbydecisionmakers.Howproblemsanddecisionalternativesareframedcanhaveapowerfulimpactonresultingdecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.Co府gn沸it澇iv希e蘆Bi叢as配esCo察gn璃it簽iv畝e汗bi版as旁esar傻e信te動(dòng)nd社en隱ci關(guān)es聯(lián)t遇o淋ac盲qu國ir爺e航an欄d方pr累oc國es賣s筋in沫fo營rm鋒at聚io魄n完in修a點(diǎn)p刻ar陵ti坊cu魯la允r隊(duì)wa蜻y倉th塘at釋i笑s朽pr令on沿e逝to漠e饅rr止or懷.Th黨ey仁c眠on功st忽it洋ut屬e有as尾su朵mp哨ti證on大s撲an桶d攪sh爐or經(jīng)tc促ut帽s衣th陰at挑c蠟an帳i再mp肯ro奔ve膛d調(diào)ec測(cè)is徒io延n-番ma監(jiān)ki膨ng丈e涂ff票ic惱ie瓶nc踐y,馳b噴ut諒t刺he賄y踐fr域eq秀ue乏nt蜜ly蓄l膏ea蠢d鄭to頓s通er策io你us江e追rr全or腦s病in膨j夸ud妄gm戰(zhàn)en償t.Co做py阿ri慶gh珠t?訴20頸11齡P贏ea欄rs蒜on收C涼an宗ad此a村In堆c.Pr啞ob珠le職m茅Id跑en鏡ti欠fi著ca引ti阿on偽a騾nd錯(cuò)F挖ra鞏mi游ngBo求un宮de桃d墾ra般ti薄on疑al德it埋y奴ca惡n些le誼ad迷t仿o休th效e切fo朗ll廉ow床in槽g墊di倉ff外ic解ul夾ti利es茅i撲n冬pr意ob遇le五m次id提en禽ti泉fi通ca自ti歲on銷:Pe翠rc其ep哄tu壯a(bǔ)lde組fe亭nc弟e.Pr仗ob怖le負(fù)m島de訴fi支ne查d肢in坊t聯(lián)er氏ms唇o卷f蜜fu罩nc羅ti哈on史al些s疤pe地ci燃al盒ty怖.Pr嬸ob帳le勾m簡de屑fi級(jí)ne褲d碰in愛t娘er嶼ms長o禁f叉so是lu旁ti善on禽.Pr翅ob囑le降m道di市ag肝no欣se撿d餐in泄t貢er白ms槍o的f累sy鴉mp揭to常ms努.Co何py環(huán)ri讓gh求t?龍20挽11喝P褲ea桶rs靜on圣C才an枯ad眼a喬In炮c.Pr投ob凝le嬸m震Id雕en芳ti柿fi姥ca氏ti喘on鉆a橫nd睜F材ra描mi監(jiān)ng俊(穩(wěn)co焦nt顆in帥ue唐d)Wh刻en爪a恥p褲ro展bl焦em牙i物s釀id諷en筋ti需fi品ed刑,診it鵝i淚s湊fr府a(chǎn)m賤ed挎i武n速so罰me干w違ay該.A厲$1鞠0,騙00控0尼ex推pe饅nd遵it籃ur惱e必ca滅n姓be艦f宏ra蟲me惠d鍋as循aco鍵stor尺a流nin辦ve杯st專me抗nt.Di傻ff淋er跌en剃t東de縱ci悉si圍on出f奴ra貓me嘉s杜ca蓮n演le錢ad暮t軋o襖ve則ry嶺d榮if湯fe良re噴nt軌d誼ec饒is夫io員ns尿.Co戶py刺ri高gh漫t?福20顯11羞P晶ea寧rs勺o(hù)n偏C境an樸ad噴a肚In霸c.Pr芳o(jì)b影l(fā)e臥m浪Id峽en芹ti揚(yáng)fi漫ca刪ti僚on冠a知nd演F習(xí)ra閣mi妥ng添(爸co痰nt因in估ue傳d)Ra則ti鬧on厲al杰d賢ec延is惡io愧n警ma南ke保rs叨s湖ho夜ul黨d江be拼v姥er斯y跌se似lf業(yè)-c滿on栗sc低io從us移a增bo職ut摟h亭ow爬t滴he庭y奧ha寨ve績f著ra岸me鋒d虧pr愈ob舊le灘ms節(jié).Th鞋ey樸s悲ho稀ul副d丘tr紀(jì)y志ou浩t妖al寇te東rn敘at躺iv付e佳fr對(duì)am毛es器.Th青ey換s堆ho吹ul英d綠av泉oi厭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