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Chinahasoneoftheworld'soldestcontinuouscivilizations—despiteinvasionsandoccasionalforeignrule.AcountryasvastasChinawithsolong-lastingacivilizationhasacomplexsocialandvisualhistory,withinwhichpotteryandporcelainplayamajorrole.ThefunctionandstatusofceramicsinChinavariedfromdynastytodynasty,sotheymaybeutilitarian,burial,trade-collectors',orevenritualobjects,accordingtotheirqualityandtheerainwhichtheyweremade.Theceramicsfallintothreebroadtypes—earthenware,stoneware,andporcelain—forvessels,architecturalitemssuchasrooftiles,andmodeledobjectsandfigures.Inaddition,therewasanimportantgroupofsculpturesmadeforreligioususe,themajorityofwhichwereproducedinTheearliestceramicswerefiredtoearthenwaretemperatures,butasearlyasthefifteenthcenturyB.C.,high-temperaturestonewareswerebeingmadewithglazedsurfaces.DuringtheSixDynastiesperiod(AD265-589),kilnsinnorthChinawereproducinghigh-firedceramicsofgoodquality.WhitewaresproducedinHebeiandHenanprovincesfromtheseventhtothetenthcenturiesevolvedintothehighlyprizedporcelainsoftheSongdynasty(AD.960-1279),longregardedasoneofthehighpointsinthehistoryofChina'sceramicindustry.Thetraditionofreligioussculptureextendsovermosthistoricalperiodsbutislessclearlydelineatedthanthatofstonewaresorporcelains,foritembracestheoldcustomofearthenwareburialceramicswithlaterreligiousimagesandarchitecturalornament.Ceramicproductsalsoincludelead-glazedtombmodelsoftheHandynasty,three-colorlead-glazedvesselsandfiguresoftheTangdynasty,andMingthree-colortempleornaments,inwhichthemotifswereoutlinedinaraisedtrailofslip—aswellasthemanyburialceramicsproducedinimitationofvesselsmadeinmaterialsofhigherintrinsicvalue.TradebetweentheWestandthesettledandprosperousChinesedynastiesintroducednewformsanddifferenttechnologies.Oneofthemostfar-reachingexamplesistheimpactofthefineninth-centuryAD.ChineseporcelainwaresimportedintotheArabworld.Soadmiredwerethesepiecesthattheyencouragedthedevelopmentofearthenwaremadeinimitationofporcelainandinstigatedresearchintothemethodoftheirmanufacture.FromtheMiddleEasttheChineseacquiredabluepigment—apurifiedformofcobaltoxideunobtainableatthattimeinChina—thatcontainedonlyalowlevelofmanganese.CobaltoresfoundinChinahaveahighmanganesecontent,whichproducesamoremutedblue-graycolor.Intheseventeenthcentury,thetradingactivitiesoftheDutchEastIndiaCompanyresultedinvastquantitiesofdecoratedChineseporcelainbeingbroughttoEurope,whichstimulatedandinfluencedtheworkofawidevarietyofwares,notablyDelft.TheChinesethemselvesadaptedmanyspecificvesselformsfromtheWest,suchasbottleswithlongspouts,anddesignedarangeofdecorativepatternsespeciallytheEuropeanJustaspainteddesignsonGreekpotsmayseemtodaytobepurelydecorative,whereasinfacttheywerecarefullyandpreciselyworkedoutsothatatthetime,theirmeaningwasclear,soitiswithChinesepots.Totwentieth-centuryeyes,Chinesepotterymayappearmerelydecorative,yettotheChinesetheformofeachobjectanditsadornmenthadmeaningandsignificance.Thedragonrepresentedtheemperor,andthephoenix,theempress;thepomegranateindicatedfertility,andapairoffish,happiness;mandarinducksstoodforweddedbliss;thepinetree,peach,andcraneareemblemsoflonglife;andfishleapingfromwavesindicatedsuccessinthecivilserviceexaminations.OnlywhenEuropeandecorativethemeswereintroduceddidthesemeaningsbecomeobscuredorevenlost.Fromearlytimespotswereusedinbothreligiousandsecularcontexts.TheimperialcourtcommissionedworkandintheYuandynasty(A.D.1279-1368)animperialceramicfactorywasestablishedatJingdezhen.Potsplayedanimportantpartinsomereligiousceremonies.Longandoftenlyricaldescriptionsofthedifferenttypesofwareexistthatassistinclassifyingpots,althoughthesesometimesconfuseanalreadylargeandcomplicatedpicture.

為享有盛名的宋代瓷器（960-1279年）——長久以來被認(rèn)為是中國陶瓷業(yè)鈷礦石含有大量的會產(chǎn)生暗藍(lán)灰色的錳元素。17世紀(jì)，大量的中國裝飾類瓷器20世紀(jì)的眼光來看，中國制造的陶瓷也許僅僅是裝飾品，但是VariationsintheOneofthemostdifficultaspectsofdecidingwhethercurrentclimaticeventsrevealevidenceoftheimpactofhumanactivitiesisthatitishardtogetameasureofwhatconstitutesthenaturalvariabilityoftheclimate.Weknowthatoverthepastmillenniatheclimatehasundergonemajorchangeswithoutanysignificanthumanintervention.Wealsoknowthattheglobalclimatesystemisimmenselycomplicatedandthateverythingisinsomewayconnected,andsothesystemiscapableoffluctuatinginunexpectedways.Weneedthereforetoknowhowmuchtheclimatecanvaryofitsownaccordinordertointerpretwithconfidencetheextenttowhichrecentchangesarenaturalasopposedtobeingtheresultofhumanactivities.Instrumentalrecordsdonotgobackfarenoughtoprovideuswithreliablemeasurementsofglobalclimaticvariabilityontimescaleslongerthanacentury.Whatwedoknowisthatasweincludelongertimeintervals,therecordshowsincreasingevidenceofslowswingsinclimatebetweendifferentregimes.Tobuildupabetterpictureoffluctuationsappreciablyfurtherbackintimerequiresustouseproxyrecords.Overlongperiodsoftime,substanceswhosephysicalandchemicalpropertieschangewiththeambientclimateatthetimecanbedepositedinasystematicwaytoprovideacontinuousrecordofchangesinthosepropertiesovertime,sometimesforhundredsorthousandsofyears.Generally,thelayeringoccursonanannualbasis,hencetheobservedchangesintherecordscanbedated.Informationontemperature,rainfall,andotheraspectsoftheclimatethatcanbeinferredfromthesystematicchangesinpropertiesisusuallyreferredtoasproxydata.ProxytemperaturerecordshavebeenreconstructedfromicecoredrilledoutofthecentralGreenlandicecap,calciteshellsembeddedinlayeredlakesedimentsinWesternEurope,oceanfloorsedimentcoresfromthetropicalAtlanticOcean,icecoresfromPeruvianglaciers,andicecoresfromeasternAntarctica.Whiletheserecordsprovidebroadlyconsistentindicationsthattemperaturevariationscanoccuronaglobalscale,therearenonethelesssomeintriguingdifferences,whichsuggestthatthepatternoftemperaturevariationsinregionalclimatescanalsodiffersignificantlyfromeachWhattheproxyrecordsmakeabundantlyclearisthattherehavebeensignificantnaturalchangesintheclimateovertimescaleslongerthanafewthousandyears.Equallystriking,however,istherelativestabilityoftheclimateinthepast10,000years(theHoloceneperiod).Totheextentthatthecoverageoftheglobalclimatefromtheserecordscanprovideameasureofitstruevariability,itshouldatleastindicatehowallthenaturalofclimatechangehavecombined.Theseincludethechaoticfluctuationsoftheatmosphere,theslowerbutequallyerraticbehavioroftheoceans,changesinthelandsurfaces,andtheextentoficeandsnow.Alsoincludedwillbeanyvariationsthathavearisenfromvolcanicactivity,solaractivity,and,possibly,humanactivities.Onewaytoestimatehowallthevariousprocessesleadingtoclimatevariabilitywillcombineisbyusingcomputermodelsoftheglobalclimate.Theycandoonlysomuchtorepresentthefullcomplexityoftheglobalclimateandhencemaygiveonlylimitedinformationaboutnaturalvariability.Studiessuggestthattodatethevariabilityincomputersimulationsisconsiderablysmallerthanindataobtainedfromtheproxyrecords.Inadditiontotheinternalvariabilityoftheglobalclimatesystemitself,thereistheaddedfactorofexternalinfluences,suchasvolcanoesandsolaractivity.Thereisagrowingbodyofopinionthatboththesephysicalvariationshaveameasurableimpactontheclimate.Thusweneedtobeabletoincludetheseinourdeliberations.Somecurrentanalysesconcludethatvolcanoesandsolaractivityexplainquiteaconsiderableamountoftheobservedvariabilityintheperiodfromtheseventeenthtotheearlytwentiethcenturies,butthattheycannotbeinvokedtoexplaintherapidwarminginrecentdecades.

的方法沉淀，這可以提供那些特征在超長時(shí)間里變化的連續(xù)記錄這個(gè)超長時(shí)間Inthelatesixteenthcenturyandintotheseventeenth,Europecontinuedthegrowththathadlifteditoutoftherelativelylessprosperousmedievalperiod(fromthemid400stothelate1400s).Amongthekeyfactorsbehindthisgrowthwereincreasedagriculturalproductivityandanexpansionoftrade.Populationscannotgrowunlesstheruraleconomycanproduceenoughadditionalfoodtofeedmorepeople.Duringthesixteenthcentury,farmersbroughtmorelandintocultivationattheexpenseofforestsandfens(low-lyingwetlands).DutchlandreclamationintheNetherlandsinthesixteenthandseventeenthcenturiesprovidesthemostspectacularexampleoftheexpansionoffarmland:theDutchreclaimedmorethan36.000acresfrom1590to1615alone.MuchofthepotentialforEuropeaneconomicdevelopmentlayinwhatatfirstglancewouldseemtohavebeenonlysleepyvillages.Suchvillages,however,generallylayinregionsofrelativelyadvancedagriculturalproduction,permittingnotonlythesurvivalofpeasantsbutalsotheaccumulationofanagriculturalsurplusforinvestment.Theyhadaccesstourbanmerchants,markets,andtraderoutes.Increasedagriculturalproductioninturnfacilitatedruralindustry,anintrinsicpartoftheexpansionofindustry.Woolensandtextilemanufacturers,inparticular,utilizedruralcottage(in-home)production,whichtookadvantageofcheapandplentifulrurallabor.IntheGermanstates,theravagesoftheThirtyYears'War(1618-1648)furthermovedtextileproductionintothecountryside.Membersofpoorpeasantfamiliesspunorwoveclothandlinensathomeforscantremunerationinanattempttosupplementmeagerfamilyincome.MoreextendedtradingnetworksalsohelpeddevelopEurope'seconomyinthisperiod.EnglishandDutchshipscarryingryefromtheBalticstatesreachedSpainandPortugal.Populationgrowthgeneratedanexpansionofsmall-scalemanufacturing,particularlyofhandicrafts,textiles,andmetalproductioninEngland,Flanders,partsofnorthernItaly,thesouthwesternGermanstates,andpartsofSpain.Onlyironsmeltingandminingrequiredmarshalingasignificantamountofcapital(wealthinvestedtocreatemorewealth).Thedevelopmentofbankingandotherfinancialservicescontributedtotheexpansionoftrade.Bythemiddleofthesixteenthcentury,financiersandtraderscommonlyacceptedbillsofexchangeinplaceofgoldorsilverforothergoods.Billsofexchange,whichhadtheiroriginsinmedievalItaly,werepromissorynotes(writtenpromisestopayaspecifiedamountofmoneybyacertaindate)thatcouldbesoldtothirdparties.Inthisway,theyprovidedcredit.Atmid-century,anAntwerpfinancieronlyslightlyexaggeratedwhenheclaimed,“0necannomoretradewithoutbillsofexchangethansailwithoutwater."Merchantsnolongerhadtocarrygoldandsilveroverlong,dangerousjourneys.AnAmsterdammerchantpurchasingsoapfromamerchantinMarseillecouldgotoanexchangerandpaytheexchangertheequivalentsuminguilders,theDutchcurrency.TheexchangerwouldthensendabillofexchangetoacolleagueinMarseille,authorizingthecolleaguetopa