2015大課程qwe數(shù)據(jù)分析

思考Wall猜測(cè)流失率和客戶生命周期有關(guān)，是否正確？估計(jì)編號(hào)672，354和5203的客戶的流失概率？他們屬于需要重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的對(duì)象么？列出前20個(gè)最可能流失的客戶，以及影響他們流失率的主要因素1QWE數(shù)據(jù)分析張誠復(fù)旦大學(xué)管理學(xué)院

3Logit/Logistic回歸分析事件發(fā)生概率哪些因素導(dǎo)致手術(shù)后有的病人感染，有的不感染？哪些因素會(huì)讓有的客戶流失，有的客戶不流失？流失概率Customer672：0.038104483Customer354：0.047797695Customer5203：0.042739255平均流失概率：0.05089018445整體Age1(0-5)Age2(6-14)Age3(>14)Customer_Age_inmonths0.012706CHI_M0-0.004660.001123-0.00886-0.01143CHI_M01-0.01027-0.02391-0.00318-0.00036Support_M0-0.15237-0.22895-0.17471-0.09098Support_M010.1702630.2794510.1415850.088144Blog_M010.000291-0.00215-0.049580.011825Views_M01-0.000114.41E-05-0.00015-0.00011DaysLastLogin_M010.0172420.0664980.0169830.000723sp_M00.0159290.517629-0.22838-0.01085sp_M01-0.05194-0.33580.0587250.017696Logins_M010.0002890.006835-0.00111-0.00303constant-2.76267-4.27492-1.68861-1.66152最易流失的前20位用戶6ID分段估計(jì)9290.5097223570.43573847400.2868233350.26832436710.26193642920.25879537660.24577433200.2440679910.24295236040.24093641110.2396331630.2392432790.238532350.238540270.238532650.23841737340.2384175510.2383935260.2383945940.23839ID整體估計(jì)22870.3964653570.3501861090.30042519710.24712320760.21620720250.21529410.20151760.1935759290.19335813630.1905082990.188961287018726519290.183812140180274180.17812130.17808921017438478可否進(jìn)一步分析影響每個(gè)用戶流失的主要因素？策略1：尋找整體顯著因素中該用戶行為變化最大的變量策略2：尋找乘上系數(shù)后該用戶行為變化最大的變量9與岱易的結(jié)果比較Churn\Pred0100.9314409030.06855909710.6532507740.346749226岱易的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率：0.9016858老師的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率：0.659366Churn\Pred0100.6570385130.34296148710.297213