石化行業(yè)市場(chǎng)前景及投資研究報(bào)告：亞洲煉化短期上行,結(jié)構(gòu)性緊縮

亞洲煉化——短期上行或結(jié)構(gòu)性緊縮？2023

年

8

月

17

日中期油價(jià)上漲新冠疫情后石油需求復(fù)蘇（今年汽油和柴油需求等于或高于新冠疫情前的水平，航空燃油需求可能會(huì)在今年晚些時(shí)候或2024年跟進(jìn)）。我們預(yù)測(cè)相比于國(guó)際能源署的2.2mbd，2023年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)為1.2mbd。我們預(yù)測(cè)2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格為

85美元/桶，2024年為74美元/桶，2025年為70美元/桶資料：國(guó)際能源署，，國(guó)際估計(jì)。圖表顯示全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)前景Forfulldisclosure

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2近期煉化毛利有所上升亞洲

煉

化

毛

利

環(huán)比上升約25%，至7.2美元/桶（2023

年第2季度為5.7美元/桶，2023年第1季度為13.3美元/桶），受柴油和飛機(jī)燃料裂解液環(huán)比分別上漲8%和7%推動(dòng)資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了基于區(qū)域需求劃分和原料成本的亞洲理論煉化毛利。我們贊賞每個(gè)煉油廠都有公司特定利潤(rùn)Forfulldisclosure

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3主要石化產(chǎn)品的裂解液價(jià)差最近亞洲的柴油和煤油裂解液有所增加，部分反映了在中國(guó)的一些復(fù)蘇，而汽油裂解液仍然保持相當(dāng)穩(wěn)健資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了主要石油產(chǎn)品裂解液隨時(shí)間變化情況。Forfulldisclosure

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4中國(guó)原油進(jìn)口仍然保持穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)2023

年第二季度，中國(guó)原油進(jìn)口量環(huán)比和同比分別增長(zhǎng)約

8%

和約

23%，其中俄羅斯石油進(jìn)口量占該國(guó)

6

月份進(jìn)口份額約

20%。資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了俄羅斯對(duì)中國(guó)的原油進(jìn)口量與進(jìn)口量合計(jì)數(shù)的比較。Forfulldisclosure

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5中國(guó)汽油和柴油庫(kù)存較低中國(guó)汽油和柴油庫(kù)存低于2022年水平，接近歷史平均水平，成品油需求已于4月份開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇。中石化預(yù)計(jì)成品油需求同比增長(zhǎng)14%，中石油預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)8%，而國(guó)際能源署預(yù)計(jì)2023

財(cái)年增長(zhǎng)10%左右資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了隨時(shí)間推移的中國(guó)每周商業(yè)汽油庫(kù)存（資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了隨時(shí)間推移的中國(guó)每周商業(yè)柴油庫(kù)存（單單位：百萬(wàn)噸）。位：百萬(wàn)噸）。Forfulldisclosure

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6煉化毛利至中等水平我們看到中國(guó)的成品油需求持續(xù)復(fù)蘇。2022年全球煉油開(kāi)工率平均約為80%，而歷史平均水平為81%。然而，我們的全球煉油產(chǎn)品供需平衡（模擬新煉油廠的增加和盡管基于公司數(shù)據(jù)、報(bào)廢和石油產(chǎn)品需求調(diào)整了爬坡）表明中期利潤(rùn)率上行空間有限。我們預(yù)測(cè)2023年亞洲煉油利潤(rùn)為11.0美元/桶（2022年為15.2美元/桶），2024年為7.0美元/桶，2025年為5.5美元/桶資料：能源研究所《2023年世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)回顧》，Rystad

Energy，國(guó)際估計(jì)Forfulldisclosure

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7石化產(chǎn)品價(jià)差5月已觸底由于中國(guó)占全球石化產(chǎn)品需求的

40%

左右，我們預(yù)計(jì)亞洲石腦油裂解裝置今年將有所改善。許多商品化學(xué)品的價(jià)差已開(kāi)始恢復(fù)。今年迄今為止，全球聚乙烯利用率平均在

80

年代中期左右水平，隨著一些產(chǎn)能的啟動(dòng)，預(yù)計(jì)將逐漸上升，盡管比過(guò)去少，但隨著需求復(fù)蘇，尤其是中國(guó)的需求復(fù)蘇以及對(duì)專用化學(xué)品關(guān)注增加。同時(shí)，歐洲產(chǎn)能削減也可能逐漸收緊化工市場(chǎng)資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了

PE

=聚乙烯、PP

=聚丙烯、PX

=對(duì)二甲苯、PVC

=聚氯乙烯的化學(xué)價(jià)差。定價(jià)于2023

年

8

月

9

日。Forfulldisclosure

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8全球聚乙烯供需可能趨緊由于中國(guó)占全球石化產(chǎn)品需求的40%左右，我們預(yù)計(jì)亞洲石腦油裂解裝置今年將有所改善。許多商品化學(xué)品的價(jià)差已開(kāi)始恢復(fù)。今年迄今為止，全球聚乙烯利用率平均在80年代中期左右水平，隨著一些產(chǎn)能的啟動(dòng)，預(yù)計(jì)將逐漸上升，盡管比過(guò)去少，但隨著需求復(fù)蘇，尤其是中國(guó)的需求復(fù)蘇以及對(duì)專用化學(xué)品關(guān)注增加。同時(shí)，歐洲產(chǎn)能削減也可能逐漸收緊化工市場(chǎng)資料：陶氏化學(xué)，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示全球聚乙烯供需前景和利用率Forfulldisclosure

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9中國(guó)煉化盈利能力復(fù)蘇我們繼續(xù)看到中國(guó)煉油/化工產(chǎn)品相對(duì)于選定的全球同行在業(yè)績(jī)和價(jià)值上存在差異，因此我們建議增加對(duì)中國(guó)和全球下游的開(kāi)放資料盈利：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了選定的全球煉油/化工公司和中國(guó)煉油/化工公司每季度的總體一致Forfulldisclosure

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10亞洲煉油商已開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)變表現(xiàn)不佳的局面今年迄今為止，亞洲煉油商的平均表現(xiàn)在絕對(duì)項(xiàng)上與2022財(cái)年年末一致（中石化除外），其中中石化表現(xiàn)最佳，IRPC表現(xiàn)最差。隨著亞洲煉油利潤(rùn)率開(kāi)始上升，許多煉油商已在2023年下半年看到反彈資料絕對(duì)股價(jià)表現(xiàn)。榮盛石化、恒力石化、上海石化、BPCL、HPCL和中國(guó)石化均被給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。SK

Innovation、S-Oil、SPRC、Thai

Oil、IRPC、ENEOS和PTTGC均未獲得：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了選定的全球煉油和化工公司2023年上半年和

2023年下半年至今的國(guó)際評(píng)為優(yōu)于大市。

國(guó)際國(guó)際評(píng)級(jí)。Forfulldisclosure

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11大部分煉化公司盈利被下調(diào)今年迄今為止，亞洲煉油商的一致盈利評(píng)級(jí)平均下調(diào)了約15%，其中SK

Innovation下調(diào)幅度最大，達(dá)67%，而B(niǎo)PCL則上調(diào)了66%。隨著煉油利潤(rùn)可見(jiàn)度的提高和有限的油價(jià)波動(dòng)，市場(chǎng)有可能開(kāi)始上調(diào)亞洲煉油商的盈利資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了選定的全球煉油和化工公司2023

年年初至今預(yù)期的一致每股盈利變化。榮盛石化、恒力石化、上海石化、BPCL、HPCL

和中國(guó)石化均被Innovation、S-Oil、SPRC、Thai

Oil、IRPC、ENEOS和

PTTGC均未獲得國(guó)際評(píng)為優(yōu)于大市。國(guó)際給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。SK國(guó)際評(píng)級(jí)。Forfulldisclosure

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12亞洲煉油商提供良好的價(jià)值2023年預(yù)期亞洲煉油商基于市盈率和評(píng)估價(jià)值/息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(rùn)分別以1.0倍和10.0倍交易，相對(duì)于10

年歷史平均水平分別貼水約15%和7%資料國(guó)際理論亞洲煉油利潤(rùn)率的比較。榮盛石化、恒力石化、上海石化、BPCL、HPCL

和中國(guó)石化均被

國(guó)際評(píng)為優(yōu)于大市。

國(guó)際給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。

SK

Innovation、S-Oil、SPRC、Thai

Oil、IRPC、ENEOS和PTTGC均未獲得國(guó)際評(píng)級(jí)。：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了隨著時(shí)間推移，平均市凈率估值與資料：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了選定的亞洲地區(qū)煉油商股票隨時(shí)間變化的市凈率估值。榮盛石化、恒力石化、上海石化、大市。PTTGC均未獲得BPCL

HPCL、和中國(guó)石化均被國(guó)際評(píng)為優(yōu)于國(guó)際給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。SK

Innovation

S-Oil

SPRC

Thai

Oil

IRPC

ENEOS和、、、、、國(guó)際評(píng)級(jí)。Forfulldisclosure

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13中國(guó)獨(dú)立煉油商估值溢價(jià)反映產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)按市凈率計(jì)算，中石化、PTTGC、ENEOS和SPC的交易價(jià)格約為0.50倍，較7年歷史平均水平貼水約25%，相對(duì)于亞洲煉油商的平均水平貼水約32%，而獨(dú)立中國(guó)煉化公司榮盛石化和恒力石化則以對(duì)亞洲煉油商平均水平溢價(jià)交易資料石化、上海石化、BPCL、HPCL

和中國(guó)石化均被、S-Oil、SPRC、Thai

Oil、IRPC、ENEOS和PTTGC均未獲得：，國(guó)際研究。圖表顯示了選定的全球煉油和化工公司

2023

年預(yù)期市盈率。榮盛石化、恒力國(guó)際評(píng)為優(yōu)于大市。

國(guó)際給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。SK

Innovation國(guó)際評(píng)級(jí)。Forfulldisclosure

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14股息收益率低于傳統(tǒng)能源公司亞洲煉油企業(yè)平均股息收益率為5%左右，其中，中石化股息收益率最高，榮盛石化最低。全球能源交易價(jià)格為企業(yè)價(jià)值倍數(shù)的4-4.5倍左右，收益率為5-6%左右。資料：、證券研究所。圖表顯示了基于一致估計(jì)的

2023年企業(yè)價(jià)值倍數(shù)和股息收益率。部分公司的數(shù)值因證券研究所對(duì)榮盛石化、恒力石化、上圖表原因未顯示，其中，中石化的股息收益率>10%。定價(jià)截至2023年8月9日。海石化、BPCL、HPCL和中國(guó)石化的評(píng)級(jí)均優(yōu)于大市。給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。SK

Innovation、S-Oil、SPRC、Thai

Oil、IRPC、ENEOS和PTTGC均未獲得評(píng)級(jí)。Forfulldisclosure

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15自由現(xiàn)金流收益率展望亞洲煉油企業(yè)的平均自由現(xiàn)金流收益率為11%，其中HPCL、IOCL和SPRC的自由現(xiàn)金流收益率最高，Thai

Oil最低。中石化在估值水平和自由現(xiàn)金流收益率之間實(shí)現(xiàn)了良好的平衡。全球能源公司提供約10-11%的自由現(xiàn)金流收益率資料：、證券研究所。圖表顯示了基于一致估計(jì)的2023年企業(yè)價(jià)值倍數(shù)和自由現(xiàn)金流收益率。證券研究所對(duì)榮盛石化、恒力石化、定價(jià)截至2023年8月8日。HPCL、IOCL、SPRC自由現(xiàn)金流收益率>20%。上海石化、BPCL、HPCL

和中國(guó)石化的評(píng)級(jí)均優(yōu)于大市。給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。SK

Innovation、S-Oil、SPRC、ThaiOil、IRPC、ENEOS和PTTGC均未獲得評(píng)級(jí)。Forfulldisclosure

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16資產(chǎn)實(shí)力雄厚亞洲煉油企業(yè)平均凈負(fù)債股權(quán)比率為81%，其中恒力石化最高，上海石化最低資料：、證券研究所。圖表顯示了2023年亞洲煉油企業(yè)的凈負(fù)債股權(quán)比率。證券研究所對(duì)榮盛石化、恒力石化、上海石化、BPCL、HPCL

和中國(guó)石化的評(píng)級(jí)均優(yōu)于大市。給予IOCL中性評(píng)級(jí)。SKInnovation、S-Oil、SPRC、Thai

Oil、IRPC、ENEOS和PTTGC均未獲得評(píng)級(jí)。Forfulldisclosure

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17APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究報(bào)告由(HTIJKK)和動(dòng)。國(guó)際分銷，國(guó)際是由國(guó)際研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited

(HSIPL)，Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證券活國(guó)際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團(tuán)隊(duì)所組成的全球品牌，IMPORTANT

DISCLOSURESThis

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Haitong

International,

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equity

research

teams

of

Haitong

International

Research

Limited

(“HTIRL”),Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited

(“HSIPL”),

Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.

(“HTIJKK”),

Haitong

International

Securities

Company

Limited

(“HTISCL”),

and

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members

within

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International

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Companies

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respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析師認(rèn)證Analyst

Certification:我，

Scott

Darling

，在此保證（i）本研究報(bào)告中的意見(jiàn)準(zhǔn)確反映了我們對(duì)本研究中提及的任何或所有目標(biāo)公司或上市公司的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并且（ii）我的報(bào)酬中沒(méi)有任何部分與本研究報(bào)告中表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,

ScottDarling,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referredto

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

thisresearch

report;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

researchreport

is

published.我，Axel

Leven，在此保證（i）本研究報(bào)告中的意見(jiàn)準(zhǔn)確反映了我們對(duì)本研究中提及的任何或所有目標(biāo)公司或上市公司的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并且（ii）我的報(bào)酬中沒(méi)有任何部分與本研究報(bào)告中表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,

Axel

Leven,certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

thisresearch

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

researchreport

is

published.18APPENDIX我，Lena

Shen,

，在此保證（i）本研究報(bào)告中的意見(jiàn)準(zhǔn)確反映了我們對(duì)本研究中提及的任何或所有目標(biāo)公司或上市公司的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并且（ii）我的報(bào)酬中沒(méi)有任何部分與本研究報(bào)告中表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,

Lena

Shen,

,certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

thisresearch

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

myhousehold,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

researchreport

is

published.利益沖突披露Conflict

ofInterestDisclosures國(guó)際及其某些關(guān)聯(lián)公司可從事投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)和/或?qū)Ρ狙芯恐械奶囟ü善被蚬具M(jìn)行做市或持有自營(yíng)頭寸。就本研究報(bào)告而言，以下是有關(guān)該等關(guān)系的披露事項(xiàng)（以下披露不能保證及時(shí)無(wú)遺漏，如需了解及時(shí)全面信息，請(qǐng)發(fā)郵件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTI

and

some

of

its

affiliates

may

engage

in

investment

banking

and

/

or

serve

as

a

market

maker

or

hold

proprietary

trading

positions

of

certain

stocks

orcompanies

in

this

research

report.

As

far

as

this

research

report

is

concerned,

the

following

are

the

disclosure

matters

related

to

such

relationship

(As

the

followingdisclosure

does

not

ensure

timeliness

and

completeness,

please

send

an

email

to

ERD-Disclosure@

if

timely

and

comprehensive

information

is

needed).中國(guó)石化集團(tuán)齊魯石油化工公司目前或過(guò)去12個(gè)月內(nèi)是的客戶。向客戶提供非投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)的證券相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)。中國(guó)石化集團(tuán)齊魯石油化工公司

is/was

a

client

of

Haitong

currently

or

within

the

past

12

months.

The

client

has

been

provided

for

non-investment-bankingsecurities-related

services.19APPENDIX評(píng)級(jí)定義（從2020年7月1日開(kāi)始執(zhí)行）：國(guó)際（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“HTI”）采用相對(duì)評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)來(lái)為投資者推薦我們覆蓋的公司：優(yōu)于大市、中性或弱于大市。投資者應(yīng)仔細(xì)閱讀HTI的評(píng)級(jí)定義。并且HTI發(fā)布分析師觀點(diǎn)的完整信息，投資者應(yīng)仔細(xì)閱讀全文而非僅看評(píng)級(jí)。在任何情況下，分析師的評(píng)級(jí)和研究都不能作為投資建議。投資者的買賣股票的決策應(yīng)基于各自情況（比如投資者的現(xiàn)有持倉(cāng)）以及其他因素。分析師股票評(píng)級(jí)優(yōu)于大市，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)漲幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下中性，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)變化不大，基準(zhǔn)定義如下。根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們會(huì)將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類別。弱于大市，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)跌幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本

–

TOPIX,

韓國(guó)

–

KOSPI,

臺(tái)灣

–

TAIEX,

印度

–

Nifty100,

美國(guó)

–

SP500;

其他所有中國(guó)概念股

–

MSCIChina.Ratings

Definitions

(from

1

Jul2020):Haitong

International

uses

a

relative

rating

system

using

Outperform,

Neutral,

or

Underperform

for

recommending

the

stocks

we

cover

to

investors.

Investors

shouldcarefully

read

the

definitions

of

all

ratings

used

in

Haitong

International

Research.

In

addition,

since

Haitong

International

Research

contains

more

completeinformation

concerning

the

analyst's

views,

investors

should

carefully

read

Haitong

International

Research,

in

its

entirety,

and

not

infer

the

contents

from

the

ratingalone.

In

any

case,

ratings

(or

research)

should

not

be

used

or

relied

upon

as

investment

advice.

An

investor's

decision

to

buy

or

sell

a

stock

should

depend

on

individualcircumstances

(such

as

the

investor's

existing

holdings)

and

other

considerations.Analyst

StockRatingsOutperform:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

exceed

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.Neutral:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

in

line

with

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.

Forpurposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.Underperform:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

below

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.Benchmarks

for

each

stock’s

listed

region

are

as

follows:

Japan

–

TOPIX,

Korea

–

KOSPI,

Taiwan

–

TAIEX,

India

–

Nifty100,

US

–

SP500;

for

all

other

China-conceptstocks

–

MSCIChina.20APPENDIX評(píng)級(jí)分布Rating

Distribution21APPENDIX截至2023年6月30日國(guó)際股票研究評(píng)級(jí)分布優(yōu)于大市中性(持有)弱于大市國(guó)際股票研究覆蓋率89.6%4.7%9.2%1.1%投資銀行客戶*5.6%10.0%*在每個(gè)評(píng)級(jí)類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。上述分布中的買入，中性和賣出分別對(duì)應(yīng)我們當(dāng)前優(yōu)于大市，中性和落后大市評(píng)級(jí)。只有根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們才將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類別。請(qǐng)注意在上表中不包含非評(píng)級(jí)的股票。此前的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)定義（直至2020年6月30日）：買入，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)漲幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下中性，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)變化不大，基準(zhǔn)定義如下。根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們會(huì)將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類別。賣出，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)跌幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本

–

TOPIX,

韓國(guó)

–

KOSPI,

臺(tái)灣

–

TAIEX,

印度

–

Nifty100;

其他所有中國(guó)概念股

–

MSCIChina.Haitong

International

Equity

Research

Ratings

Distribution,

asofJun30,

2023OutperformNeutral(hold)9.2%UnderperformHTI

Equity

Research

CoverageIB

clients*89.6%4.7%1.1%10.0%5.6%*Percentage

of

investment

banking

clients

in

each

rating

category.BUY,

Neutral,

and

SELL

in

the

above

distribution

correspond

to

our

current

ratings

of

Outperform,

Neutral,

and

Underperform.For

purposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.

Please

note

that

stocks

with

an

NR

designation

are

notincluded

in

the

table

above.Previous

ratingsystemdefinitions

(until30

Jun2020):BUY:The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

exceed

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.NEUTRAL:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

in

line

with

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.For

purposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.SELL:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

below

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.Benchmarks

for

each

stock’s

listed

region

are

as

follows:

Japan

–

TOPIX,

Korea

–

KOSPI,

Taiwan

–

TAIEX,India

–

Nifty100;

for

allother

China-concept

stocks

–

MSCIChina.22APPENDIX國(guó)際非評(píng)級(jí)研究：

國(guó)際發(fā)布計(jì)量、篩選或短篇報(bào)告，并在報(bào)告中根據(jù)估值和其他指標(biāo)對(duì)股票進(jìn)行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍數(shù)提出建議價(jià)格。這種排名或建議價(jià)格并非為了進(jìn)行股票評(píng)級(jí)、提出目標(biāo)價(jià)格或進(jìn)行基本面估值，而僅供參考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:

Haitong

International

publishes

quantitative,

screening

or

short

reports

which

may

rank

stocks

according

to

valuation

andother

metrics

or

may

suggest

prices

based

on

possible

valuation

multiples.

Such

rankings

or

suggested

prices

do

not

purport

to

be

stock

ratings

or

target

prices

orfundamental

values

and

are

for

information

only.國(guó)際A股覆蓋：中國(guó)A股的研究報(bào)告。但是，國(guó)際可能會(huì)就滬港通及深港通的中國(guó)A股進(jìn)行覆蓋及評(píng)級(jí)。國(guó)際使用與

證券不同的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)，所以

國(guó)際與證券（600837.CH），

國(guó)際于上海的母公司，也會(huì)于中國(guó)發(fā)布證券的中國(guó)A股評(píng)級(jí)可能有所不同。Haitong

International

Coverage

of

A-Shares:

Haitong

International

may

cover

and

rate

A-Shares

that

are

subject

to

the

Hong

Kong

Stock

Connect

scheme

withShanghai

and

Shenzhen.

Haitong

Securities

(HS;

600837

CH),

the

ultimate

parent

company

of

HTISG

based

in

Shanghai,

covers

and

publishes

research

on

these

sameA-Shares

for

distribution

in

mainland

China.

However,

the

rating

system

employed

by

HS

differs

from

that

used

by

HTI

and

as

a

result

there

may

be

a

difference

in

theHTI

and

HS

ratings

for

the

same

A-share

stocks.國(guó)際優(yōu)質(zhì)100

A股（Q100）指數(shù)：程，并結(jié)合對(duì)

證券

A股團(tuán)隊(duì)自下而上的研究。國(guó)際Q100指數(shù)是一個(gè)包括100支由證券覆蓋的優(yōu)質(zhì)中國(guó)A股的計(jì)量產(chǎn)品。這些股票是通過(guò)基于質(zhì)量的篩選過(guò)國(guó)際每季對(duì)Q100指數(shù)成分作出復(fù)審。Haitong

International

Quality

100

A-share

(Q100)

Index:

HTI’s

Q100

Index

is

a

quant

product

that

consists

of

100

of

the

highest-quality

A-shares

under

coverage

atHS

in

Shanghai.

These

stocks

are

carefully

selected

through

a

quality-based

screening

process

in

combination

with

a

review

of

the

HS

A-share

team’s

bottom-upresearch.

The

Q100

constituent

companies

are

reviewed

quarterly.23APPENDIXMSCI

ESG評(píng)級(jí)免責(zé)聲明條款：盡管國(guó)際的信息供貨商（包括但不限于MSCI

ESG

Research

LLC及其聯(lián)屬公司（「ESG方」）從其認(rèn)為可靠的獲取信息（「信息」）,

ESG方均不擔(dān)保或保證此處任何數(shù)據(jù)的原創(chuàng)性，準(zhǔn)確性和/或完整性，并明確表示不作出任何明示或默示的擔(dān)保，包括可商售性和針對(duì)特定目的的適用性。該信息只能供閣下內(nèi)部使用，不得以任何形式復(fù)制或重新傳播，并不得用作任何金融工具、產(chǎn)品或指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)或組成部分。此外，信息本質(zhì)上不能用于判斷購(gòu)買或出售何種證券,

或何時(shí)購(gòu)買或出售該證券。即使已被告知可能造成的損害,

ESG方均不承擔(dān)與此處任何資料有關(guān)的任何錯(cuò)誤或遺漏所引起的任何責(zé)任，也不對(duì)任何直接、間接、特殊、懲罰性、附帶性或任何其他損害賠償（包括利潤(rùn)損失）承擔(dān)任何責(zé)任。MSCI

ESG

Disclaimer:

Although

Haitong

International’s

information

providers,

including

without

limitation,

MSCI

ESG

Research

LLC

and

its

affiliates

(the

“ESGParties”),

obtain

information

(the

“Information”)

from

sources

they

consider

reliable,

none

of

the

ESG

Parties

warrants

or

guarantees

the

originality,

accuracy

and/orcompleteness,

of

any

data

herein

and

expressly

disclaim

all

express

or

implied

warranties,

including

those

of

merchantability

and

fitness

for

a

particular

purpose.

TheInformation

may

only

be

used

for

your

internal

use,

may

not

be

reproduced

or

redisseminated

in

any

form

and

may

not

be

used

as

a

basis

for,

or

a

component

of,

anyfinancial

instruments

or

products

or

indices.

Further,

none

of

the

Information

can

in

and

of

itself

be

used

to

determine

which

securities

to

buy

or

sell

or

when

to

buyor

sell

them.

None

of

the

ESG

Parties

shall

have

any

liability

for

any

errors

or

omissions

in

connection

with

any

data

herein,

or

any

liability

for

any

direct,

indirect,special,

punitive,

consequential

or

any

other

damages

(including

lost

profits)

even

if

notified

of

the

possibility

of

such

damages.24APPENDIX盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)通免責(zé)聲明條款：在使用盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)之前，請(qǐng)務(wù)必仔細(xì)閱讀本條款并同意本聲明：第一條

義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)系由盟浪可持續(xù)數(shù)字科技有限責(zé)任公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“本公司”）基于合法取得的公開(kāi)信息評(píng)估而成，本公司對(duì)信息的準(zhǔn)確性及完整性不作任何保證。對(duì)公司的評(píng)估結(jié)果僅供參考，并不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)投資建議，也不能作為任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)購(gòu)買、出售或持有相關(guān)金融產(chǎn)品的依據(jù)。本公司不對(duì)任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)投資者因使用本數(shù)據(jù)表述的評(píng)估結(jié)果造成的任何直接或間接損失負(fù)責(zé)。第二條

盟浪并不因收到此評(píng)估數(shù)據(jù)而將收件人視為客戶，收件人使用此數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)應(yīng)根據(jù)自身實(shí)際情況作出自我獨(dú)立判斷。本數(shù)據(jù)所載內(nèi)容反映的是盟浪在最初發(fā)布本數(shù)據(jù)日期當(dāng)日的判斷，盟浪有權(quán)在不發(fā)出通知的情況下更新、修訂與發(fā)出其他與本數(shù)據(jù)所載內(nèi)容不一致或有不同結(jié)論的數(shù)據(jù)。除非另行說(shuō)明，本數(shù)據(jù)（如財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績(jī)數(shù)據(jù)等）僅代表過(guò)往表現(xiàn)，過(guò)往的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)不作為日后回報(bào)的預(yù)測(cè)。第三條

本數(shù)據(jù)歸本公司所有，本公司依法保留各項(xiàng)權(quán)利。未經(jīng)本公司事先書面許可授權(quán)，任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)不得將本數(shù)據(jù)中的評(píng)估結(jié)果用于任何營(yíng)利性目的，不得對(duì)本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行修改、復(fù)制、編譯、匯編、再次編輯、改編、刪減、縮寫、節(jié)選、發(fā)行、出租、展覽、表演、放映、廣播、信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳播、攝制、增加圖標(biāo)及說(shuō)明等，否則因此給盟浪或其他第三方造成損失的，由用戶承擔(dān)相應(yīng)的賠償責(zé)任，盟浪不承擔(dān)責(zé)任。第四條

如本免責(zé)聲明未約定，而盟浪網(wǎng)站平臺(tái)載明的其他協(xié)議內(nèi)容（如《盟浪網(wǎng)站用戶注冊(cè)協(xié)議》《盟浪網(wǎng)用戶服務(wù)（含認(rèn)證）協(xié)議》《盟浪網(wǎng)隱私政策》等）有約定的，則按其他協(xié)議的約定執(zhí)行；若本免責(zé)聲明與其他協(xié)議約定存在沖突或不一致的，則以本免責(zé)聲明約定為準(zhǔn)。SusallWave

FIN-ESG

Data

Service

Disclaimer:

Please

read

these

terms

and

conditions

below

carefully

and

confirm

your

agreement

and

acceptance

with

these

termsbefore

using

SusallWave

FIN-ESG

Data

Service.1.

FIN-ESG

Data

is

produced

by

SusallWave

Digital

Technology

Co.,

Ltd.

(In

short,

SusallWave)’s

assessment

based

on

legal

publicly

accessible

information.

SusallWaveshall

not

be

responsible

for

any

accuracy

and

completeness

of

the

information.

The

assessment

result

is

for

reference

only.

It

is

not

for

any

investment

advice

for

anyindividual

or

institution

and

not

for

basis

of

purchasing,

selling

or

holding

any

relative

financial

products.

We

will

not

be

liable

for

any

direct

or

indirect

loss

of

anyindividual

or

institution

as

a

result

of

using

SusallWave

FIN-ESG

Data.2.

SusallWave

do

not

consider

recipients

as

customers

for

receiving

these

data.

When

using

the

data,

recipients

shall

make

your

own

independent

judgment

accordingto

your

practical

individual

status.

The

contents

of

the

data

reflect

the

judgment

of

us

only

on

the

release

day.

We

have

right

to

update

and

amend

the

data

andrelease

other

data

that

contains

inconsistent

contents

or

different

conclusions

without

notification.

Unless

expressly

stated,

the

data

(e.g.,

financial

performance

data)represents

past

performance

only

and

the

past

performance

cannot

be

viewed

as

the

prediction

of

future

return.3.

Theof

this

data

belongs

to

SusallWave,

and

we

reserve

all

rights

in

accordance

with

the

law.

Without

the

prior

written

permission

of

our

company,

noneof

individual

or

institution

can

use

these

data

for

any

profitable

purpose.

Besides,

none

of

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or

institution

can

take

actions

such

as

amendment,

replication,translation,

compilation,

re-editing,

adaption,

deletion,

abbreviation,

excerpts,

issuance,

rent,

exhibition,

performance,

projection,

broadcast,

information

networktransmission,

shooting,

adding

icons

and

instructions.

If

any

loss

of

SusallWave

or

any

third-party

is

caused

by

those

actions,

users

shall

bear

the

correspondingcompensation

liability.

SusallWave

shall

not

be

responsible

for

any

loss.4.

If

any

term

is

not

contained

in

this

disclaimer

but

written

in

other

agreements

on

our

website

(e.g.

User

Registration

Protocol

of

SusallWave

Website,

User

Service(including

authentication)

Agreement

of

SusallWave

Website,

Privacy

Policy

of

Susallwave

Website),

it

should

be

executed

according

to

other

agreements.

If

there

isany

difference

between

this

disclaim

and

other

agreements,

this

disclaimer

shall

be

applied.25APPENDIX重要免責(zé)聲明：非印度證券的研究報(bào)告：本報(bào)告由國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全資附屬公司國(guó)際研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）發(fā)行，該公司是根據(jù)香港證券及期貨條例（第571章）持有第4類受規(guī)管活動(dòng)（就證券提供意見(jiàn)）的持牌法團(tuán)。該研究報(bào)告在HTISGL的全資附屬公司Haitong

International

(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的協(xié)助下發(fā)行，HTIJKK是由日本關(guān)東財(cái)務(wù)局監(jiān)管為投資顧問(wèn)。印度證券的研究報(bào)告：本報(bào)告由從事證券交易、投資銀行及證券分析及受Securities

and

Exchange

Board

of

India（“SEBI”）監(jiān)管的Haitong

Securities

IndiaPrivate

Limited（“HTSIPL”）所發(fā)行，包括制作及發(fā)布涵蓋BSE

Limited（“BSE”）和National

Stock

Exchange

of

India

Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（統(tǒng)稱為「印度交易所」）的研究報(bào)告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收購(gòu)并成為所有研究報(bào)告均以

國(guó)際為名作為全球品牌，經(jīng)許可由

國(guó)際證券股份有限公司及/或本文件所載信息和觀點(diǎn)已被編譯或源自可靠

，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他屬于

國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)有限公司（“HTISG”）的成員對(duì)其準(zhǔn)確性、完整性和國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)的其他成員在其司法管轄區(qū)發(fā)布。正確性不做任何明示或暗示的聲明或保證。本文件中所有觀點(diǎn)均截至本報(bào)告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件僅供參考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的說(shuō)明并非意圖展示完整的內(nèi)容，本文件并非/不應(yīng)被解釋為對(duì)證券買賣的明示或暗示地出價(jià)或征價(jià)。在某些司法管轄區(qū)，本文件中提及的證券可能無(wú)法進(jìn)行買賣。如果投資產(chǎn)品以投資者本國(guó)貨幣以外的幣種進(jìn)行計(jì)價(jià)，則匯率變化可能會(huì)對(duì)投資產(chǎn)生不利影響。過(guò)去的表現(xiàn)并不一定代表將來(lái)的結(jié)果。某些特定交易，包括設(shè)計(jì)金融衍生工具的，有產(chǎn)生重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性，因此并不適合所有的投資者。您還應(yīng)認(rèn)識(shí)到本文件中的建議并非為您量身定制。分析師并未考慮到您自身的財(cái)務(wù)情況，如您的財(cái)務(wù)狀況和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好。因此您必須自行分析并在適用的情況下咨詢自己的法律、稅收、會(huì)計(jì)、金融和其他方面的專業(yè)顧問(wèn)，以期在投資之前評(píng)估該項(xiàng)建議是否適合于您。若由于使用本文件所載的材料而產(chǎn)生任何直接或間接的損失，HTISG及其董事、雇員或代理人對(duì)此均不承擔(dān)任何責(zé)任。除對(duì)本文內(nèi)容承擔(dān)責(zé)任的分析師除外，HTISG及我們的關(guān)聯(lián)公司、高級(jí)管理人員、董事和雇員，均可不時(shí)作為主事人就本文件所述的任何證券或衍生品持有長(zhǎng)倉(cāng)或短倉(cāng)以及進(jìn)行買賣。HTISG的銷售員、交易員和其他專業(yè)人士均可向HTISG的相關(guān)客戶和公司提供與本文件所述意見(jiàn)相反的口頭或書面市場(chǎng)評(píng)論意見(jiàn)或交易策略。HTISG可做出與本文件所述建議或意見(jiàn)不一致的投資決策。但HTIRL沒(méi)有義務(wù)來(lái)確保本文件的收件人了解到該等交易決定、