標(biāo)普+零售銀行業(yè)務(wù)的技術(shù)顛覆：2023年國(guó)別分析-英

TechDisruptionInRetailBanking:Country-By-CountryAnalysis2023LeadersAndLaggardsEmergeSept.

27,

2023This

report

does

notconstitute

a

rating

actionContactsCihan

Duran,

CFAFrankfurt+69-339-99-177cihan.duran@Salla

von

SteinaeckerFrankfurt+69-339-99-164salla.vonsteinaecker@Miriam

Fernandez,

CFAMadrid+34-917-887-232miriam.fernandez@Markus

SchmausFrankfurt+69-339-99-155markus.schmaus@Mohamed

DamakDubai+97-143-727-153mohamed.damak@Daniella

VasilevskiStockholm+46-721-463-121daniella.vasilevski@Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeKeyTakeaways?Digitalizationandautomationaredrivingsignificantchangestobanks'products,systems,andoperationalefficiency.?Techadoptionratesareinfluencedbyinfrastructure,regulation,localpreferences,andcompetitivepressures,andarethusuneven.Emergingtechnologygapsbetweenbanksandcountrieswillbenefitorinhibitthewealthofclientsandnations.??Weexpectbanksinmanyregionswillhaveagreatercapacitytoinnovateduetostrongerearningsfromrisinginterestrates,andthuscreateavirtuouscircleinwhichtech-drivensavingsenablegreaterinvestmentintech.Emergenttechnologies,suchasgenerativeartificialintelligence,promisematerialchangethatcouldcreateopportunitiesandthreatsforbanksandfintechs.BankingsectortechdisruptionrisksdiffersignificantlyacrosscountriesandregionsOurassessmentdrawsonfourfactors:technology,regulation,industry,andpreferences(TRIP)TechnologyModerateModerateModerateModerateModerateHighModerateHighHighModerateModerateModerateLowModerateHighRegulationModerateModerateModerateHighIndustryLowHighLowLowLowModerateLowLowLowHighModerateHighLowHighLowLowModerateModerateHighHighModerateLowLowLowModerateModerateLowPreferencesHighModerateHighRiskVeryhighHighModerateLowAustraliaAustriaBelgiumBrazilCanadaChinaCzechRepublicDenmarkFinlandFranceGCCGermanyHongKongHungaryIcelandIndiaIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaMexicoNorwayPolandPortugalSloveniaSingaporeSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTaiwanThailandU.K.HighModerateLowModerateVeryhighModerateHighHighHighHighModerateLowLowHighModerateModerateModerateModerateModerateModerateLowHighModerateLowModerateLowModerateHighModerateModerateHighVerylowModerateModerateModerateModerateLowModerateModerateHighModerateLowModerateHighModerateModerateModerateLowModerateModerateModerateModerateModerateModerateModerateModerateLowLowModerateModerateModerateModerateLowModerateHighModerateModerateModerateLowModerateHighModerateModerateLowLowLowLowHighModerateHighModerateLowHighModerateModerateModerateHighHighU.S.RiskassessmentperTRIPfactorasof

September2023.TheassessmentistheviewofS&PGlobalRatings'analysts,includestheir

discussionswithmarketparticipants,andisrelativetobankingindustrypeers.Technology--banks'technologicalcapabilities.Regulation--regulatoryprotectionaffordedtoincumbentbanks.Industry--bankingsystemadaptabilityandinvestmentcapacity.Preferences--customers'opennesstonewtechnology,digitalbanking,andswitchingtononbanks.GCC--GulfCooperationCouncil.Source:S&PGlobalRatings./

ratingsSept.

27,

20232Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeThese

are

uncertain

times

for

banks.Thebusinessoflending,facilitating

payments,andguardingsavingsisbeingroiled

bytechnologicaladvancements,

demographicshifts,

changingclientexpectations,

and

existentialthreats

fromboth

fintech

andbig

tech

companies.Add

tothatthe

rumormillofsocial

media,the

aftershocksofaglobalpandemic,

and

themostsubstantialwarinEuropefor

morethan30

years

and

it

is

littlewonderthatthe

sector,

whichhasalwaysbeenpronetochange,findsitselfinastateofflux.Adaptationtothatchangingenvironmenthasoverwhelminglydemandedtheadoptionofnewtechnologies,notablythedigitalizationofclientservicesandthesystemsthatunderpinthem.Thathasbeendrivenbycustomers'growingpreferenceforthe

convenienceof

remotebanking,andbypressurefromnonbankactorswillingtoofferthoseservices.Butithasalsoemergedasanoperationalnecessitydrivenbycostsavingsaffordedbyautomation,nottheleastofwhichis

theability

toreducebranchandemployeenumbers.While

the

promise

of

technology

in

banking

is

significant,

its

implementation

comes

withconsiderable

burdens

on

bank

(and

often

national)

budgets.Secureandreliabledigitalservicesrequiremoderninfrastructure,

regulatory

oversight,humanexpertise,

andsignificantinvestmentinsoftwareand

hardware.

Itcan

alsorequirethe

often-expensivedismantlingoflegacysystems,aprocessoftenencumberedbycomplexityandthe

needto

continuetoserviceclientsunwillingtoadoptnew

systems.

Regulatoryrisks

and

oversightarealsoaburdenandmustoftenbalancethebenefits

ofinnovationagainstdangersto

financialsystem

stabilityand

security,andin

doingso(sometimes)takesides

in

thecontestbetweenincumbentbanksandfintechinterlopers.Giventherangeofissues,

it

isno

surprise

thattech

adoption

has

been

uneven,

withsomecountries

and

regions

liketheNordics,Singapore,Hong

Kong,andChina

acceleratinginto

adigitalfuturewhileothersmakesluggishprogress.

Theresultantdigitalizationgap

willhaveimplications

for

bankcustomers

and

couldweighonthe

health

ofbanks,nationalbankingsectors,andeconomies.Thedigitalizationgapwillhaveimplicationsforbankcustomersandcouldweighon

the

healthofbanks,bankingsectors,and

nationaleconomiesEconomic

volatility

and

black

swan

events

will

continue

to

test

traditional

bank

models

anddemand

greater

proactivity

and

faster

reactivity.InJanuary,

S&PGlobalRatings

defined

awatchlistfor2023andbeyond

andwarnedthattherewouldbe

littleroom

forerrorinmaneuveringthroughthe

strainsweighingoncreditthis

year(see"Key

Themes2023:

WhatWe'reWatching,"Jan.30,2023).Littlehashappenedinthe

intervening

period

tosuggestthatforecastshouldberevised.Thewar

inUkraine,energypriceinstability,

and

theongoingbalancingactbetweeneconomicgrowth

and

inflationmanagement--allinthe

wake

oftheunprecedentedshockof,andresponseto,theCOVID-19pandemic--meansbothregionaland

nationaleconomiescontinuetonavigatechoppyanduncertain

waters.Indeed,theriskofaglobalrecessioncontinues

toconstitutethe

downsideofoureconomicprojections,

evenif

webelievethattheprobabilityofahardlandinghas

abated(see

"GlobalEconomic

Outlook

Q3

2023:

Higher

ForLonger

RatesIsThe

NewBaseline,"June28,2023).Retail

banks

have

had

to

react

rapidly

to

deal

with

the

repercussions

of

these

events

and

willhave

to

continue

to

be

nimble.Technologythatstreamlines

operations,

increasesresilience,facilitatestransactions,

and

enablesrapidproductroll-outandadjustmentswillunderpin

thatagilityandspeed.Economicfactors

seem

tobe

playinginbanks'favor,fornow.Higherinterestrates,

implementedbycentralbanks

to

slow

elevatedinflation(seechart1),

areboostingbankingsectorearningsinmanyregions,andprovidingheadroom

forincreasedtechnologybudgets./

ratingsSept.

27,

20233Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeChart1Morethanadecadeoflowinflationendedin2021Annualchangein

consumer

prices

(global)12108642019821986199019941998200220062010201420182022Inflationasmeasuredbytheconsumerpriceindexreflectstheannualpercentagechangeinthecosttotheaverageconsumerofacquiringabasketof

goodsandservicesthatmaybefixedorchangedatspecifiedintervals,suchasyearly.TheLaspeyresPriceIndexisgenerallyused.Source:IMF.Understanding

the

extent,

momentum,

and

implications

of

tech

disruption

in

retail

bankingrequires

analysis

of

both

individual

markets

and

comparison

across

countries.This

reportontechdisruptioninretailbankingprovidesthatdualinsight.Ourcountry-by-country

reports

offerasnapshotofthekey

Technology,Regulation,Industry,and

customerPreferences(TRIP)factorsthataredriving,orinhibiting,retailbanks'adoption

oftech

across

differentnationalmarkets.Meanwhile,ourTRIP

risk

scaleemploysthe

samefourfactors

toprovide

anoverviewof

techdisruptionthatiscomparableacross

countries,whilewe

havealsocollatedthreeproxy-measures

(averageapp

rating,

branch

density,andcreditanddebitcard

ownership)thatofferfurtherinsightintotech

levels

andpenetrationineachmarket.Disruptionhasbeenthruston

theretailbankingsectorinrecentyearsbyamixtureoftechnologicaladvancementsandglobalevents,notablyCOVID-19Tech

disruption

has

long-lasting

and

often

unpredictable

effects.Advancementsinarangeoftechnologies

haveushered

inwavesofsignificantwealth

creation,datingbackto1770.Itisnotunreasonableto

assumethatthecontinued

and

novelapplication

ofnewtechnologies(such

ascloudcomputing

andblockchain)and

emergenttechnologies

such

asgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)willgive

riseto

anewwave

ofwealthcreation

(seechart2)./

ratingsSept.

27,

20234Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeChart2Technologicalrevolutionshavebeenthebackboneofglobalgrowthand

prosperityWorldGDPpercapitasince

1820

(US$,at1990PPP)PPP--Purchasingpowerparity.Sources:IMF,"TechnologicalRevolutionsandFinancialCapitalTheDynamicsofBubblesandGoldenAges,"Perez,C.(2002),S&PGlobalRatings.Banking

systems,

as

the

nexus

of

wealth

creation

and

much

of

the

unfolding

tech

disruption,will

feel

acutely

the

effects

of

the

current

wave

of

innovation.

Blockchains,forexample,

haveintroducedanew

wayoftracking

and

maintaininginternet-nativeassetownership,withouttheneedfor

intermediaries.

That

has,inturn,ledtotherapidgrowth

ofdecentralizedfinanceandcryptoassets.Cloudcomputing,whichisbeingadoptednearuniversallybybanks,

promises

toreducecosts,provideflexibility,

andimprovecybersecurity.Andthe

applicationof

generativeAIcouldprovethe

mostdisruptivetechnologyofall,

affectingmyriadindustrialsectorsincludingbanking,whereitseemstooffergreaterefficiency,strongerriskmanagement,and

acceleratedproductand

serviceinnovation.Asisoftenthe

casewith

new

technologies,

timewill

berequiredtoaccuratelyassessthe

extentofthe

benefits(anddisadvantages),notleastbecauseregulatorsarereactingdifferentlyacross

regions,while

theimpactonbanks

andsocietiesremainsuncertain.Yetthe

extentofexperimentationand

useradoption,

includingnotablyofgenerativeAImodels

such

asChatGPT(seechart3),

leaves

littledoubtthattheywill

be

powerfulforces.Bankingsystemsarethenexusofwealthcreationandmuchoftheunfoldingtechdisruption/

ratingsSept.

27,

20235Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeChart3TechnologyadoptionratesMonths

takentoaccumulate100millionusers900192846042WhatsApp

Instagram3092TelephoneMobilephonesWorldwidewebTwitterTikTokChatGPTSource:TheWorldofStatistics.WeConsider

FourFactorsTo

AssessDisruptionRisksTech

disruption

is

shaping

retail

banking,

creating

winners

and

losers

within

the

sector,

anddetermining

the

extent

to

which

banks

enhance

or

inhibit

national

and

client

fortunes.Thatprocessisalreadywellunderway.

Digitalizationandautomationofbanks'operations,

coupledwithtechnologythatenablesremotebankingbyclients,is

enhancingspeed,easeofuse,

anddelivering

costsavings.Banksatthe

forefrontofdigitalization

standtosecurecompetitiveadvantages--nottheleastofwhichis

thevirtuous

circleofcostsavings

thatenablegreatertechinvestmenttosecurefurther

costsavings,which

can

perpetuatean

ever-wideningtechnologicalgapbetweentechadopters

and

laggards.Techdisruptionisshapingretailbanking,creatingwinnersandloserswithinthe

sector.Weanalyzedisruption

risksforretailbankswithourTRIPframework

(seechart4).Chart4TRIP

reflectsfourforcesthataredrivingretailbankdisruptionSource:S&PGlobalRatings./

ratingsSept.

27,

20236Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeTheaimofthisanalysisis

toexplain

how

we

expectthebanking

industryin

eachcountrytoevolve,

and

toprovidesome

comparabilityacross

markets.

Thatsaid,

ourTRIPanalysisfocusesondomesticoperations,sinceretailbankingisusuallydominatedbydomesticbanks.Nevertheless,

we

expectthattechnologywillenablebanking

groups

toactmoregloballybyexportingestablished

and

tested

domesticplatforms,

and

thatsomemeasureofinternationalcompetition,

andnational-economiccompetitiveadvantage,

willresult.Technology--TechAdoption

Will

DetermineSuccessBanksfacetheBanks

must

monitor

the

evolution

of

technologies.Banking

services,

and

indeed

banksthemselves,

facetheconstantthreatofbeingdisplacedby

newtechnologies

and

nontraditionalbankingproviders.

Damagedonetoincumbents

bysystems

thatofferlowercosts

could

berapidanddevastatingif

notalsoadoptedbybanks.Techdisruption

riskscan

also

findexpressioninclient-facing

operationsandresultin

rapid

shifts

inmarketshare.Mobile

banking,

forexample,hasemergedinjustafew

years

tobe

akeyservicethatdemands

ongoinginvestmenttomeetclients'demandforhigh-qualityservice.Thebiggestdisruption,however,couldbeyettocome.GenerativeAI

couldreshapethewaybankshave

beenusing

traditionalAIand

addnewusecases.Andweexpectitislikelytoprovepervasiveacrossboth

internaloperations

and

client-facingservicesandproducts.constantthreatofbeingdisplacedbynewtechnologiesandproviders

fromoutsidetraditionalbankingEach

tech-enabledshiftin

operations,services,

and

untapped

capabilities

alsoopens

the

doortotherisk

ofcompetition

from

nontraditionalbankingrivalsandnewmarketentrants,

collectivelyknownasfintechs.

Thissectorhasgrownfromnearanonymity20years

ago

tobecomeanimportant

threattoincumbents--thoughparticipantshave

recently

found

fundingmoredifficulttosecureduetotighterfinancingconditions(see

chart5).Thosedifficulties

could

providebankswithan

opportunitytocollaboratewithfintechs,

or

thetimetopursuetheir

owntechinitiatives.Chart5FintechshavesecuredsignificantfundinginrecentyearsGlobalfintechinvestmentvolumesbetween2010

and2023300247.2250216.8209.3200148.6138.815010050067.163.4201659.2201752.445.4201418.99.06.04.02010201120122013201520182019202020212022

H12023Note:Includesinvestmentsbyventurecapitalandprivateequityfunds.H1--Firsthalf.Source:Statista./

ratingsSept.

27,

20237Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeRegulation--RegionalDifferencesAndDigitalOversightRegulation

is

evolving

to

meet

technology-driven

risks,

though

not

homogeneously.Theuncertaintyinherenttothe

risk

andbenefits

ofinnovation

meansthatlawmakerstend

to

bereactiveindealingwith

thetech

disruptionsthatshapebankingsystems.Thisisnotnecessarilyabadthing

asitprovidesroomforfinancialinnovation,

though

itcan

alsoleaveroom

forunsafeandunethicalpracticestoflourish.It'salsoevidentthattherearedifferentstrategies

emergingacross

differentregions

and

countries.Thesedifferencesaredrivenattimesbydiffering

levelsofconservatismand/oratendencytowardreactiveregulation,bothof

whichcanservetoinhibitinnovation.Thedifferencesbetweenthe

EUandthe

U.S.'sapproachtocryptoassetregulationis

acaseinpoint,withthe

formerhavingalreadyfinalizedaregulation

framework

thatwill

go

liveby

year-end2024,

whilethelatterhas

taken

amorereactiveroutethattendsto

beenactedviaenforcementactions(see"Europe'sCrypto

Regulation

Lead

Could

AttractFollowers,"May5,

2023).Elsewhere,governments

often

activelyshaperegulatoryframeworksthataredesignedtosupporttheevolutionoftechnologies

withinbanking.Regulationofcyberriskpreventionis

anexample,withfewnations'willing

torisk

ahands-offapproach

whenitcomes

to

pushingbankstoconsidercybersecurity,digitalizationof

data,

andprivacystandards.Therealsoappears

to

be

aconsensusemerging

onthe

treatmentoffintechdevelopment,with

agrowingnumber

ofregulators

providingthefreedom

ofaregulatorysandboxenvironmenttofosterstartupsandtheapplication

ofnewtechnology.Theuncertaintyinherenttotheriskandbenefitsofinnovationmeansthatlawmakers

tendto

bereactiveindealingwiththetechdisruptionsthatshapebankingNo

mattertheapproach,

the

paceofdigitalization,anditspotential

tocreateabruptchangetobankingsystems,meansthatthepotentialfortechdisruptionis

relevantin

bankingsupervisors'riskassessment.

Thepowerof

technologytostretchexisting

regulatorynormswasmade

clearinMarch2023,whensocialmediacontributedtothe

failureof

SiliconValleyBankandfueledrunsonotherregionalbanksandasharpdeclinein

bankvaluations.

Thecrisis

was

ultimatelycalmedbycoordinatedactionbymajorcentralbanks,

which

provideextraordinaryliquidity,andbyU.S.governmentdepositbackstops.Governmentsmaythemselvesyetplay

a

majorroleinthetech-leddisruption

ofthe

bankingsector.

Centralbanks

continuetoinvestigatethe

idea

ofoverhaulingthemonetarysystembylaunching

centralbank

digitalcurrencies(CBDC)(see

"Central

BankDigital

Currencies:

TheNew

CashFor

ADigital

Age,"Sept.

16,

2021).Almost110

countriesareworkingon

aretailCBDC,thoughprogressremainspatchy

(seechart6)and

we

don'texpectCBDCs

todebutinasignificantwayaheadofthesecondhalfofthisdecade.systems/

ratingsSept.

27,

20238Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeChart

6Centralbankdigitalcurrenciesremainaworkin

progressCountriesworking

onacentralbankdigitalcurrency(asofSeptember2023)Note:Launched--countriesthatofficiallylaunchedaCBDC.Pilot--countriesthathavedevelopedaCBDCthatisimplementedinarealenvironmentonalimitedscale.Development--countries

thatareinanadvancedresearchstageandareconsideringtechnicalimplementation.Research--countriesthatareemployingacademicsandotherindividualexpertisetoresearchtheimplicationsofdevelopingaCBDC.Inactive--countriesthathavebeguninvestigatingthedevelopmentofaCBDCbutarenotproceedingwithitsdevelopment.Cancelled--countrieswhichlaunchedaCBDCbutlaterdiscontinuedit.Nodata--countrieswithanunknownCBDCstatus.Source:AtlanticCouncil.Industry--DigitalizationIsACorePriorityMost

banks

have

realized

that

there

is

a

strategic

need

to

digitalize

their

business

models.Thishasresulted

in

arapidincreasein

digital-focusedinvestmentand

theuptakeofdigitaltools

andservices.Thatrapidshifthas

encompassedoperationalaspectssuchas

cloud

computingservices,IToutsourcingandhiring,

and

cybersecurityinitiatives,

as

wellas

customerfacingapplications.

Asignificantshareofmostbanks'capitalexpenditureisnowdedicatedto

ITinvestments,

which

we

estimatetobe

about10%oftotaloperatingcosts

fortheworld's

largestbanks.Asignificantshare

ofmost

banks'capitalexpenditureis

nowdedicatedto

ITinvestments,whichweestimate

to

beabout10%

of

totaloperatingcostsfortheworld's

largestbanksAtthe

sametime,spending

on

branches

and

othernondigitalofferingshasbeencutduetodecliningdemandandrevenuepressures,notablyresultingfrom

the

long-term,lowinterestrateenvironment.Theresulthasbeen

thatbranchnumbers

andbranch-basedservices

havesignificantlydeclinedinmany

countriesoverthe

past10

years.

Theexceptionbeingemergingmarketcountries,wherebranch

networkshave

oftengrown

along

witheconomicwealth,

banks'earningcapacity,

and

withtheprovisionofservices

topreviously

unbankedcitizensand

regions(seechart7).Notably,inthesecountries'bankshave

typically

builtdigitalproductsand

servicesalongsidebranchnetworks.Recentlyhigherinterestratesare

boosting

globalbankprofits,yetwe

do

notexpectawidespreadreturn

tobranch

network

expansion.Clients

havecometoappreciatetheconvenienceandefficiencyofdigitalbanking(notleastduringCOVID-19lockdowns),whilebankshave

grownusedtothecostbenefits

ofdigitalservices.Theresultantprofitabilitygainsshouldaffordbanks

theopportunitytoincrease

investmentin

digitalizationandthus

acceleratethepaceofchange.

Indeed,

farfrom

areversalofthecurrenttrend,weexpectbankswill

continuetoinvestin

technologythatdelivers

operationalefficiency,securing

furthercostcuts

tofundfurtherdigitalization.This

willcreateavirtuouscircleforthemost-digitalizedactors

andexposetechnology

laggards

totherisk

offallingeverfurther

behind./

ratingsSept.

27,

20239Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeChart

7DevelopmentofbankbranchesdiffersmarkedlyacrossG20countriesGrowth

ofcommercialbank

branches

forG20countriesbetween2012and2021*ItalyRussia*Germany*AustraliaKoreaU.S.FranceMexicoBrazilCanadaTürkiyeU.K.JapanIndonesiaSouthAfricaArgentinaSaudiArabiaChinaIndia(40)(30)(20)(10)0102030405060Growth

rate

(%)Note:G20

excludingtheEuropeanUniontoavoiddouble-counting.*LastavailabledataforGermanyandRussiaasofDecember2020.Source:

IMF.U.K.OfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS).Preferences--CustomerDemands

Are

DrivingChangeThe

ease

with

which

clients

in

most

national

markets

can

now

switch

banks

increases

the

riskof

disappointing

customers.Expectationsthatbanksshoulddeliverreliableandlow-costfinancialproducts

haveincreasedalongwiththe

adoption

ofdigitalservices,andparticularlysoduring

andsincethepandemic(seechart

8).Barriers

toswitching

and

associated

costshave,

atthesametime,tumbledthanksto

regulatoryinitiatives

and

intermediation

byinternet-basedswitchingservices

and

aggregators

(whichcollaterelevantinformationtoenableclients

to

makeinformedchoices).

Thecombinationofthosefactorshasincreasedpressureonbankstomakeeach

customerinteraction

a

positiveexperiencein

terms

of

bothconvenienceand

cost,bothofwhichplaytothestrengthsofdigitalservices.

Thattrend

issettocontinue.Whilethepandemicacceleratedtheadoptionof

mobilebanking,demographicshavealso

beenaWhilethepandemicaccelerated

the

adoptionofmobile

banking,

demographicshavealsobeenadeterminantfactor.So-called

"digital-nativegenerations"

areusedtotransactingremotely,

oftenusing

theirphones,andtypically

have

littleattachmentto

traditionalbankingservices,branches,orproducts.

Thismakes

themmoreopen

thanprevious

generationsto

newsolutions,such

asbuy-now-pay-laterloans,

andtochangingtheir

banking

servicesprovider.

Thatincreasedpropensitytomigrateislikely

tostandoutinthe

currentinterestrateenvironment,whereshiftsinloananddepositratesthatshouldencourageswitching.It

will

be

interesting

tosee

how

banksmeetthe

challengeofretaining

clients

in

this

environment,

withoutcuttinginto

margins.determinantfactor/

ratingsSept.

27,

202310Tech

Disruption

In

Retail

Banking:

Country-By-Country

Ana

lys

is

2023

|

LeadersAnd

Laggards

EmergeChart

8Customer

preferenceshave

clearlyshifted

towarddigitalsolutionsInternetandmobilepenetrationofworldpopulationbetween2000-20217060504030201014012010080Internetpenetration(leftscale)Mobilepenetration(rightscale)6040200020002003200620092012201520182021Note:Mobilepenetrationequatesto

mobilecellularsubscriptionsper100people.Internetpenetrationisthepercentageofindividualswhoused

theinternetinthethreemonthsbeforethesurvey.Source:TheWorldBank.Tech

Disruption

Will

WeighUnevenlyOn

BanksWe

consider

digitalization

and

disruption

risks

among

the

factors

that

determine

our

bankratings.Weincorporateourviews

ofdigitalizationforbanksintwoways.

First,

throu