2019年清大北師大考博英語真題答案

2019年北京清華大學(xué)考博英語真題及答案

PartIVocabulary(20%)

Directions:TherearefortyincompletesentencesinthispartForeach

sentencetherearefourchoicesmarkedA,B,CandD.Choosethebest

onethatcompletesthesentence,andthenmarkthecorresponding

letterontheANSWERSHEETwithasinglelinethroughthecenter.

1.TheEuropeanUnioncountries,wereonceworriedthattheywould

nothavesupplies

ofpetroleum.

A.sufficientB.efficientCpotentialD.proficient

2.We'dliketoatableforfivefordinnerthisevening.

A.preserveB.reserveC.sustainD.retain

3.Britainhasthehighestofroadtrafficintheworld-over60carsfor

everymileof

road.

A.popularityB.prosperityC.intensityD.density

4.IwouldneverhaveacourtoflawifIhadn'tbeensodesperate.

A.soughtforB.accountedforC.turnedupD.restoredto

5.Theenergybythechainreactionistransformedintoheat.

A.transferredB.releasedC.conveyedD.delivered

6.Itisrequiredthatduringtheprocess,greatcarehastobetakento

protectthesilk

fromdamage.

A.sensitiveB.sensibleCtenderD.delicate

7.Toour,Geoffrey'sillnessprovednottobeasseriousaswehad

feared.

A.reliefB.viewC.anxietyD.judgment

8.Thegovernmentwilltakesomeactiontothetwobigquarreling

companies.

A.jigsawB.jotC.impulseD.reconcile

9.Asautomationbecamepopularinmostfactories,laborwasmade*

A.disincentiveB.redundantC.diverseD.discontent

10.Theyhaveherunreasonablerequestforherannualsalary.

A.destinedB.chordedC.repelledD.commenced

11.Whenyouprepareforyourspeech,besuretocitequalifiedsources

ofinformation

andexamples.

A.unbiasedB.manipulatedC.distortedD.conveyed

12.Itisapparentthatwinningthescholarshipisofone'sintelligence

inthefieldof

physics.

A.parallelismB.alliterationC.testimonyD.rhythm

13.Incourtherepeatedhisthathewasnotguiltyinfrontofthejury.

A.impressionsB.alliterationsC.clausesD.assertions

14.Shoppingmallshavesomeadvantageinsufferingfromshorter

periodsofbusiness.

A.staleB.slackC.ferrousD.abundant

5.AccordingtotheGenevanoprisonersofwarshallbesubjectto

abuse.

A.CustomsB.CongressesC.ConventionsD.Routines

Beforethegeneralelectionmanyseniorcitizenssignedtheagainst

thespreadingof

nucleararms.

A.contractB.petitionC.supplicationD.potential

7.ScientistsbelievethatthereisnotenoughoxygenintheMoonzs

atmospheretoplant

life.

A.adaptB.personalizeC.sustainD,describe

Ican'trememberexactlywhattriggeredtheexplosionbutitwaspretty

A.estimatingB.devastatingC.reprocessingD.preferring

Theindustryhaspumpedamountsofmoneyintopoliticalcampaigns,

makingit

lessandlessI汰elythatpoliticianswilldealwiththeissuesensibly.

A.potentialB.substantialC.massiveD.traditional

20.1wasentrustedtotoanewspaperarticlemakingpredictionsforthe

NewYear.

A.contributeB.detractC.convertD.entail

21.After1989,theexternalvanished,butthedangertoAmerican

civilizationremained.

A.disruptionB,menaceC.liabilityD,emergence

22.Thegovernmentistryingtohelptheseenterprisesoutoftheby

variousmeans.

A.flightB.plightCdelightD.twilight

23.Anarchaeologisthastopaymuchattentiontodetailsofan

unearthedobject.

A.miserableB.minusC.minuteD.moist

24.Thegirlhertablemate(sarmtoseeifshewasfastasleepatclass.

A.pinchedB.punchedC.pitchedD.preached

25.Mostofthelocalpeopleinvolvedintheaffairhavebeenand

dismissed.

A.smuggledB.prosecutedC.salutedD.thrived

26.1canrespectsomeonewhoisfortheiractions,butIcannot

respectsomeonewhois

alwayspointingthefinger.

A.millenniumB.dominantC.accountableD.commercial

27.AlltheproductsmadeinChinaaresoldanddistributedinwiththe

U.S.Export

AdministrationRegulationsandalsolocalcountryrules.

A.complianceB.prosperityC.merchandiseD'intersection

28.Oneofthemainreasonsisthattheuniversity'sattractsstudents

andfacultystaffall

overtheworld.

A.fraudB.respondentC.misconductD.prestige

29.Eventhoughtheinvestigationhasbeengoingonfortwomonths,

thepolicehaveno

furtherdetailsabouttheaccident.

A.comprisedB.formulatedC.releasedD.incorporated

30.Theywanttostimulateeconomicgrowthintheregionbyoffering

toforeign

investors.

A.incentivesB.abundancesC.warriorsD.outnumbers

31.Whybeaboutthatoldcoat?There'snopointinkeepingitjust

becauseyouwere

wearingitwhenyoufirstmetme.

A.sensitiveB.sensibleC.sentimentalD,sensational

32.andhardworkarethecornerstonesofthiscompany.

A.MutilationB.InnovationC.EmpireD.Strength

33.Theprotestswerepartoftheiragainsttheproposedbuilding

developmentinthe

area.

A.commissionB.commitmentC.conventionD.campaign

34.Somepeopleseemtoonthepressureofworkingunderadeadline.

A.renderB-evolveC.prevailD.thrive

35.Thesechangeshavenotbeensufficienttothelosses.

A.stemB.stimulateCcauseD.compensate

36.Psychologistsbelievethatchildrenareeasilyinfluencedbytheir.

A.conditionsB.combinationsC,peersD.granaries

37.Severalforglobalwarminghavebeensuggestedbyclimate

researchers.

A.systemsB.sentencesCfallaciesD.hypotheses

38.Thesenaturalresourceswillbesoonerorlaterifthepresentrateof

exploitation

continues.

A,depletedB.deployedC.inclinedD.mingled

39.Themilitaryoperationsyesterdayweretargetedatthemilitary

installations.

A.propelledB.commencedC.plaguedD.modulated

40.Artificialintelligencedealspartlywiththebetweenthecomputer

andthehuman

brain.

A.profileB-mightyC.analogyD,leakage

PartIIReadingComprehension(40%)

Directions:Inthispartofthetest,therearefiveshortpassages.Read

eachpassagecarefully,andthendothequestionsthatfollow.Choose

thebestanswerfromthefourchoicesgivenandmarkthecorresponding

letterwithasinglebaracrossthesquarebracketsonyourmachine-

scoringANSWERSHEET.

PassageOne

Thereareover6,000differentcomputerandonlinegamesintheworld

now.Asegmentofthemareconsideredtobebotheducationaland

harmlesslyentertaining.Onesuchgameteachesgeography,and

anothertrainspilots.Otherstraintheplayerinlogicalthinkingand

problemsolving.Somegamesmayalsohelpyoungpeopletobecome

morecomputerliterate,whichismoreimportantinthistechnology-

drivenera.

Butthedarksideofthecomputergameshasbecomemoreandmore

obvious."Asegmentofgamesfeaturesanti-socialthemesofviolence,

sexandcrudelanguage,,,saysDavidWalsh,presidentoftheNational

InstituteonMediaandFamily."Unfortunately,it'sasegmentthatseems

particularlypopularwithkidsagedeighttofifteen.,,

Onestudyshowedthatalmost80percentofthecomputerandonline

gamesyoungpeoplepreferredcontainedviolence.Theinvestigators

said*Thesearenotjustgamesanymore.Thesearelearningmachines.

We'reteachingkidsinthemostincrediblemannerwhatit,sliketopull

thetrigger.Whattheyarenotlearningarethereal-lifeconsequences."

Theyalsosaid“Thenewandmoresophisticatedgamesareevenworse,

becausetheyhave

bettergraphicsandallowtheplayertoparticipateinevenmorerealistic

violentacts."InthegameCarmageddon,forexample,theplayerwill

havedrivenoverandkilledupto33,OCX)peoplebythetimealllevels

arecompleted.Adescriptionoftheoutcomeofthegamesays:"Your

victimsnotonlysquishunderyourtiresandsplatterbloodonthe

windshield.Theyalsogetontheirkneesandbegformercy,orcommit

suidde.Ifyoulike,youcanalsodismemberthem.”

Isallthissimulatedviolenceharmful?Approximately3,000different

studieshavebeenconductedonthissubject.Manyhavesuggestedthat

thereisaconnectionbetweenviolenceingamesandincreased

aggressivenessintheplayers.

Somespecialistsdownplaytheinfluenceofthegames,sayingthatother

factorsmustbetakenintoconsideration,suchasthepossibilitythatkids

whoalreadyhaveviolenttendenciesarechoosingsuchgames.Butcould

itbethatviolentgamesstillplayacontributingrole?Itseemsunrealistic

toinsistthatpeoplearenotinfluencedbywhattheysee.Ifthatwere

true,whywouldthecommercialworldspendbillionsofdollarsannually

fortelevisionadvertising?

41.WhichofthefollowingcomputergamesareNOTmentionedas

educationalandharmlesslyentertaining?

A.Thosethatteachhowtoflyanairplane.

B.Thosethatteachthefeaturesoftheearth.

CThosethathelppeopleusecomputerlanguage.

D.Thosethatteachcomputertechnology.

42.Accordingtotheinvestigators,.

A.thenewandmoresophisticatedgamesallowtheplayerstotakepart

inrealviolentacts

B.thenewandmoresophisticatedgamesteachtheplayershowtokill

otherpeople

C.mostcomputerandonlinegamesmaketheplayersforgetthereal

liferesults

D.mostcomputerandonlinegamesmaycultivateyoungpeoplewith

badmanners

43.Itcanbeinferredfromthepassagethat.

A.moreandmoreyoungpeopleenjoycruelcomputergames

B-itishardtofindevidenceofalinkbetweenviolenceandcomputer

games

C.therearenowmoreincidentsofviolenceduetocomputergames

D.simulatedviolenceincomputergamesisdifferentfromrealviolence

44.Theauthoruses"televisionadvertising"asanexampletoshowthat

A.thecommercialworldiscontributingtotheincreasedviolenceinreal

life

B.computerandonlinegamesarenottheonlycauseofincreased

violenceinreallife

C.thereisacloselinkbetweencomputergamesandincreasedviolence

inreallife

D.otherfactorsmustbeconsideredaspossiblecausesofviolencein

reallife

PassageTwo

ThecollapseoftheEarth'smagneticfield—whichguardstheplanetand

guidesmanyofitscreatures—appearstohavestartedseriouslyabout

150yearsago,theNewYorkTimesreportedlastweek.

Thefield'sstrengthhasdecreasedby10or15percentsofarandthis

hasincreasedthedebateoverwhetheritsignalsareversaloftheplanef

slinesofmagneticforce*

Duringareversal,themainfieldweakens,almostvanishes,and

reappearswithoppositepolarity（極）?Thetransitionwouldtake

thousandsofyears.Oncecompleted,compassneedlesthathadpointed

northwouldpointsouth.Areversalcouldcauseproblemsforbothman

andanimals.Astronautsandsatelliteswouldhavedifficulties.Birds,fish

andanintalsthatrelyontheinagneticfieldfornavigationwouldfind

migrationconfusing.Butexpertssaidtheeffectswouldnotbeabig

disaster,despitedaimsofdoomandvagueevidenceoflinksbetween

pastfieldreversalsandspeciesextinctions.

Althoughatotaltransitionmaybehundredsorthousandsofyearsaway,

therapiddeclineinmagneticstrengthisalreadyaffectingsatellites.Last

month,theEuropeanSpaceAgencyapprovedtheworld7slargesteffort

attrackingthefield'sshifts.Agroupofnewsatellites,calledSwarm,is

tomonitorthecollapsingfieldwithfargreaterprecision."Wewantto

getsomeidea*ofhowthiswouldevolveinthenearfuture,justlike

peopletryingtopredicttheweather,,,saidGauthierHulot,aFrench

geophysicistworkingonthesatelliteplan."I,mpersonallyquite

convincedweshouldbeabletoworkoutthefirstpredictionsbytheend

ofthemission.”

Nomatterwhatthenewfindings,thepublichasnoreasontopanic.Even

ifatransitioniscomingonitsway,itmighttake2,000yearstomature.

Thelastonetookplace780,000yearsago,whenearlyhumanswere

learninghowtomakestonetools.DeepinsidetheEarthflowhot

currentsofmeltediron.Thismechanicalenergycreates

electromagnetism.Thisprocessisknownasthegeophysicalgenerator.

Inacar'sgenerator,thesameprincipleturnsmechanicalenergyinto

electricity.

Nooneknowspreciselywhythefieldperiodicallyreverses.Butscientists

saytheresponsibilityprobablylieswithchangesinthedisorderlyflows

ofmeltediron,whichtheyseeassimilartothegasesthatmakeupthe

cloudsofJupiter.

45.Accordingtothepassage,theEarth,smagneticfieldhas?

A,misguidedmanyamanandanimal

B.beguntochangeintheoppositedirectionCcausedthechangeson

thepolarities

D.beenweakeninginstrengthforalongtime

46.DuringthetransitionoftheEarth'smagneticfield*

A.thecompasswillbecomeuseless

B.manandanimalswillbeconfusedindirections

C.themagneticstrengthoftheEarthwilldisappear

D.themagneticstrengthoftheEarthwillbestronger

47.Theauthorsaysthepublichasnoreasontopanic"because?

A.thetransitionisstillthousandsofyearsfromnow

B.thetransitioncanbepreciselypredictedbyscientists

C.theprocessofthetransitionwilltakeaverylongtimetofinish

D.thenewtransitionwillcome780,000yearsfromnow

48.ThecauseofthetransitionoftiKeEarth、magneticfieldcomesfrom

A.themovementdeepinsidetheEarthB.theperiodicalreversesofthe

EarthCtheforcecomingfromouterspaceD.themechanical

movementoftheEarth

PassageThree

TheterroristattacksinLondonThursdayservedasajarringreminder

thatintoday'sworld,youneverknowwhatyoumightseewhenyou

pickupthenewspaperorturnontheTV.

Disturbingimagesofterrorcantriggeravisceralresponsenomatterhow

closeoxfarawayfrom

hometiheeventhappened.

Throughouthistory,everymilitaryconflicthasinvolvedpsychological

warfareinonewayoranotherastheenemysoughttobreakthemorale

oftheiropponent.Butthankstoadvancesintechnology,thepopularity

oftheInternet,andproliferationofnewscoverage,therulesof

engagementinthistypeofmentalbattlehavechanged.

Whetherit'samassiveattackorasinglehorrificact,theeffectsof

psychologicalwarfarearen'tlimitedtothephysicaldamageinflicted.

Instead,thegoaloftheseattacksistoinstillasenseoffearthatismuch

greaterthantheactualthreatitself.

Therefore,theimpactofpsychologicalterrordependslargelyonhowthe

actsarepublicizedandinterpreted.Butthatalsomeansthereareways

todefendyourselfandyourlovedonesbyputtingthesefearsinto

perspectiveandprotectingyourchildrenfromhorrificimages.

WhatIsPsychologicalTerror?”Theuseofterrorismasatacticis

predicateduponinducingaclimateoffearthatisincommensuratewith

theactualthreat,saysMiddleEasternhistorianRichardBuliietof

ColumbiaUniversity,uEverytimeyouhaveanactofviolence,publicizing

thatviolencebecomesanimportantpartoftheactitself."

'Therearevariouswaystohaveyourimpact.Youcanhaveyourimpact

bythemagnitudeofwhatyoudo,bythesymboliccharacteroftarget,

orthehorrificqualityofwhatyoudotoasingleperson,,,Buliiettells

WebMD."Thepointisthatitisn,twhatyoudo,butifshowit,scovered

thatdeterminestheeffect"Forexample,BuliietsaystheIranianhostage

crisis,whichbeganin1979andlastedfor444days,wasactuallyoneof

themostharmlessthingsthathappenedintheMiddleEastinthelast25

years.AlloftheU.S.hostageswereeventuallyreleasedunharmed,but

theeventremainsapsychologicalscarformanyAmericanswhowatched

helplesslyaseachevening'snewscastcountedthedaysthehostages

werebeingheldcaptive.

Buliietsaysterroristsfrequentlyexploitimagesofagroupofmasked

individualsexertingtotalpowerovertheircaptivestosendthemessage

thattheactisacollectivedemonstrationofthegroup,spowerrather

thananindividualcmninalact."Youdon'thavethenotionthatacertain

personhastakenahostage.Ifsanimageofgrouppower,andtheforce

becomesgeneralizedratherthanpersonalizedsaysBuliiet.'The

randomnessandtheubiquityofthethreatgivetheimpressionofvastly

greatercapacities*/

PsychiatristAnsarHaroun,whoservedintheU.S.ArmyReservesinthe

firstGulfWarandmorerecentlyinAfghanistan,saysthatterroristgroups

oftenresorttopsychologicalwarfarebecauseit'stiheonlytacticthey

haveavailabletothem."Theydon'thaveM-16s,andwehaveM-16S.

Theydon,thavethemightymilitarypowerthatwehave,andtheyonly

haveaccesstothingslikekidnapping,,,saysHaroun,whoisalsoa

clinicalprofessorofpsychiatryattheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego.

"Inpsychologicalwarfare,evenonebeheadingcanhavethe

psychologicalimpactthatmightbeassociatedwithkilling1,000ofthe

enemy"HarountellsWebMD.,nYouhaven'treallyharmedtheenemy

verymuchbykillingonepersonontheotherside.Butintermsof

inspiringfear,anxiety,terror,andmakingusallfeelbad,you*veachieved

alotofdemoralization,

49.WhichofthefollowingstatementisNOTamongthereasonsthat

changetherulesofpsychologicalwarfare?

A.Breakthemoraleoftheiropponent.

B.Advancesintechnology.

C.ThepopularityoftheInternet,

D.Prosperityofmedia.

50.AccordingtoRichardBulliet,whydoes"publicizinganactof

violencebecomesan

importantpartofterrorismitself?

A.Becausepsychologicalterrorismisatactic.

B.Becauseterrorismdependsonaclimateoffearratherthanonthe

actualthreat.

C.Becausetheuseofterrorismistoinspirefearthatismoredestructive

thantheactualthreat.

D'Becausepublicizingtheviolencecanmakemorepeopleknowthe

actualthreat.

51.TheIranianhostagecrisisshowsthat.

A.theimpactofpsychologicalterrorrelieslargelyonhowtheactsare

publicized

B.therearevariouswaystohavetheimpactofpsychologicalterror

C.theAmericanmediaiseffective

D.thewaysdeterminestheeffect

52.Therandomnessandtheubiquityoftheterroristactsbringtothe

publictheimpression

that?

A.theterroristsareexertingtotalpowerovertheircaptives

B.thethreatisacollectivedemonstrationofthegroup'spower

C.theterroristsarepowerfulandpervasive

D.theforcebecomesgeneralizedratherthanpersonalized

PassageFour

Inayearmarkedbyuncertaintyandupheaval,officialsatNewOrleans

universitiesthatdrawapplicantsnationwidearenotfollowingtheusual

rulesofthumbwhenitcomestocollegeadmissions.Theonlysurebet,

theysay,isthatthisfairsenteringclasses—thefirstsinceKatrina—will

besmallerthanusual.

Intypicalyears,mostcollegeadmissionsofficialscanpredictfairly

accuratelybythispointintheadmissionscyclehowmanyhighschool

seniorswillcommittoenrollingintheirinstitutions.Manyofthemost

selectiveschoolsrequirestudents—whoincreasinglyareapplyingto

multipleinstitutions—tomaketheirchoicesbyMay1.LoyolaUniversity,

whosetrusteeswillvoteMay19onwhethertodropseveraldegree

programsandeliminate17facultypositions,receivedfewer

applications—about2,900todate,comparedwith3,500inrecentyears.

Theschoolhopestoenroll700freshmen,downfrom850inthepastfew

years.HistoricallyblackDillardUniversity,whichisoperatingoutofa

hotelandwasforcedtocancelitsannualMarchopenhouse,alsosaw

drops,asdidXavierUniversity,ahistoricallyblackCatholicinstitution

thatfellbehinditsrecruitmentschedule.Dillardwon'treleasenumbers'

butspokeswomanMaureenLarkinssaysapplicationsweredownand

enrollmentsareexpectedtobelowerthaninthepast.Xavieradmissions

deanWinstonBrownsaysitsapplicantpoolfellbyabouthalfoflastyear'

srecord1,014;hehopestoenroll500freshmen.

Incontrast,TulaneUniversity,whichisthemostselectiveofthefourand

developedanaggressiverecruitmentscheduleafterthehurricane,

enjoyedan11%increaseinapplicationsthisyear,toarecord20,715.

Evenso,officialspredictthatfeweradmittedstudentswillenrollandare

projectingasmaller-than-usualfreshmanclass—1,400,comparedwitha

moretypical1,600.TulaneofficialsannouncedinDecemberthatthey

wouldeliminatesomedepartmentsandfacultypositions.

LikeTulane,otherschoolsaretakingextrastepsthisyeartowoo

admittedstudents,oftenbyenlistinghelpfromalumniaroundthe

countryandreachingouttostudentswithmoree-mails,phonecallsor

Web-basedinteractionssuchasblogs.Inaddition,Loyolaisrelaxing

deadlines,sweeteningthepotwithlargerscholarshipsandfreezing

tuitionatlastyear'slevel.Dillard,too,isfreezingtuition.lt,salsohosting

townmeetingsintargetcitiesandregionsnationwide,andmovedits

academiccalendarbackfromAugusttomid-September"toavertthe

majorityofthehurricaneseason"Larkinssays.Xavierextendedits

applicationdeadlineandsteppedupitsone-on-onecontactwith

acceptedstudents.AndTulane,amongothertihings,hasdoubledthe

numberofon-campusprogramsforacceptedstudentsandhosteda

communityserviceweekendprogram.

Whiletheschoolsexpectapplicantstobeapprehensive,theadmissions

officialsalsoseeencouragingsignsofpurposefulnessamongapplicants,

“Alotofstudentswhoarechoosingtocometothiscity(are)saying,'I

wanttobeapartof(theaction),,,,saysStieffel,notingthatLoyola1s

transferapplicationswereup30%.AndwhileapplicationstoXavierare

down,Brownisbettingthatstudentswhodoapplyareserious."The

oneswhoareapplying,wefeel,aremorelikelytocome,,,hesays.

53.Itcanbeinferredfromthepassagethat.

A.manyofthestudentsrequiresmallerclassesthanusualinthe

institutions

B.mostcollegeadmissionsofficialscannotpredicthowmanystudents

willcommittoenrollingintheirinstitutionsbyMay1thisyear

Cmanyofthestudentsareincreasinglyapplyingtomultipleinstitutions

tomaketheir

choicesbyMay1thisyear

D.intypicalyears,mostcollegesrequirestudentstoapplyandcommit

totheir

institutions

54.Thefollowingstatementsarefalseotherthan?

A*TulaneUniversityalsosawdropsinapplicationthisyear

B.XavierUniversity,asahistoricallyblackCatholicinstitution,fell

behindtherecruitmentscheduleofDillardUniversity

C.XavierUniversitydeanWinstonBrownsaysthetotalnumberthathe

hopestoenrollisabout1,500freshmen

D.LoyolaUniversitywillvoteonwhethertoeliminate17faculty

positionsduetoreceivingfewerapplicationsofstudents

55.Inordertoattractapplicants,LoyolaUniversityandDillardUniversity

are,

A.reducingthetuitionrespectively

B.hostingmeetings

C.increasingthescholarshipsrespectively

D.extendingtheapplicationdeadline

56.Thepassagemainlyconcentratesonthesubjectof.

A.thedropsoftheapplicantsoftheuniversities

B.thedilemmaoftheadmissionofficials

C.theusualrulesofcollegeadmissions

D.theeffectsofthehurricanes

PassageFive

Thedifferencebetweenavianfluandhumanfluthatshouldbe

commandingourraptattentiontodayisthatavianinfluenza,specifically

theH5N1strainknownasbirdflu,threatenstobecometheyoung

people'splague.Anditisagrowingcontendertocauseadevastating

worldwidepandemicinthenextfewyears.

Wearetoousedtothinkingoffluasanannualannoyancethatkillsonly

thefrailandelderly.Butthatjustisn'tthecaseforH5N1.Withamortality

rateofover50percent,thisbirdfluhaskilledover110people,striking

theyoungandable-bodiedthehardest.Itsvictimsclusterpredominantly

among5-to-30-year-old,apatternthathasheldupinthe34knownto

havediedfrombirdflusofarthisyear.

Thisvulnerabilitymaystemfromtherobustandfast-respondingimmune

systemsoftheyoung.Thevictimsoverreacttothealienvirus,triggering

amassiveimmuneresponsecalledacytokinestorm,turninghealthy

lungsintoasoddenmassofdyingtissuescongestedwithblood,toxic

fluid,andrampaginginflammatorycells.Asairspaceschokeoff,the

bodylosesoxygenandotherorgansfail.

ScientistshaverecentlyshownthatH5N1hasominousparallelswiththe

devastating1918flupandemic,whichalsojumpeddirectlytohumans

frombirdsanddisproportionatelyattackedtheyoungandthestrong.

Withapatternhighlysuggestiveofacytokinestorm,deathsometimes

camewithinjusthours,turningmanyWorldWarItroopshipsintodeath

ships.

Nowimaginehundredsofthousandsofyoungpeoplelaboringon

respirators,orlyingaloneincorridorsandmakeshifthospitalrooms,too

sicktobehelpedwhenthesupplyofbeds,equipment,andtrainedstaff

runout.Seemlikehype?Nottothemedicalexpertswhodiscussedthese

scenariosduringlastweek'sUS.NewsHealthSummitonemergency

preparedness.

ThispictureputsafaceontheU.S.DepartmentofHealthandHuman

Servicesxprojectionsthat,ifH5N1mutatesintoareadilyhuman-

transmissiblefrom209,000to1.9millionAmericanscoulddie.Partof

ourreadinessthinkingshouldbetoheedthebluntwordsofHHS

SecretaryMichaelLeavittatthesummit:Anyfamilyorcommunitythat

failstopreparefortheworst,withtheexpectationthatthefederalor

stategovernmentwillcometotherescue,willbe"tragicallywrong/5

Inapandemic,thegovernmentsmedicalresourceswillbestretchedthin,

anditwon'tbeabletoguaranteefirst-linehelptoanyhometown,local

hospital,orcollegecampus.EventhenationalstockpileofTamiflu,the

antiviralthatisthebestwehavetopreventorlessentheimpactofthe

illness,hasitslimits.Ifacollegestudentishospitalizedwithapossible

H5N1infection,thefedswillprovidedrugs.Buttheywillnotmakeit

availabletofendoffthevirusinthemanyotherswhomayhavecomein

dosecontactwiththeinfectedstudent.Intheexistingfederalguidance

onH5N1,theyoungandhealthyfallintothelowest-prioritygroupfor

antiviraldrugsandvaccines.Studenthealthcentersorotherproviders

hadbetterscroungeuptheirownstockpiles.Containingpossible

outbreaksoncollegecampusesmaybeallbutimpossible.Social

distancing——avoidingclosecontactwithotherpeoplewithairkisses

insteadofsmooches,orevenbydonningmasksandgloves—willbe

toughtoenforce.

Thethreatposesauniquelydifficultchallenge.Inthebestofallscenarios,

theviruswillloseitsfuryandleaveinitswakeanewcultureofindividual

andcommunitypreparedness.Butweneedtogetreadynow,andnot

forthebestscenariobutfortheworst.

57.Thedifferencebetweena