昆侖能源(0135.HK)首次覆蓋：聚焦天然氣銷售業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定

研究報(bào)告ResearchReport10Mar2024昆侖能源KunlunEnergy(135HK)首次覆蓋：聚焦天然氣銷售業(yè)務(wù)，經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定FocusingonNaturalGasSalesBusiness,SustainedandStableOperationalPerformance:Initiation觀點(diǎn)聚焦InvestmentFocus首次覆蓋優(yōu)于大市首次覆蓋優(yōu)于大市Initiatewith評(píng)級(jí) 優(yōu)于大市OUTPERFORM現(xiàn)價(jià) HK$7.00目標(biāo)價(jià) HK$7.96HTI4.5-3.7-3.0E-S-G:0-5,(PleaserefertotheAppendixforESGcomments)市值 HK$60.61bn/US$7.75bn日交易額(3個(gè)月均值) US$11.64mn發(fā)行股票數(shù)目 8,659mn自由流通股(%) 42%1年股價(jià)最高最低值 HK$7.63-HK$5.49注：現(xiàn)價(jià)HK$7.00為2024年3月8日收盤價(jià)PriceReturn MSCIChina85Volume70VolumeMar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23資料來(lái)源：Factset1mth 3mth 12mth絕對(duì)值 -0.4% 1.4% 6.7%絕對(duì)值（美元） -0.5% 1.4% 7.1%相對(duì)MSCIChina -3.7% 3.5% 24.9%(Rmbmn)營(yíng)業(yè)收入(Rmbmn)營(yíng)業(yè)收入Dec-22A171,944Dec-23E182,158Dec-24E195,066(+/-)24%6%7%凈利潤(rùn)5,2286,0956,497(+/-)-77%17%7%全面攤薄EPS(Rmb)0.600.700.75毛利率15.0%14.8%14.7%凈資產(chǎn)收益率13.7%14.0%14.1%市盈率資料來(lái)源：公司信息,HTI12109

(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)昆侖能源有限公司是中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)銷售規(guī)模最大的天然氣終端利用企業(yè)和LPG銷售企業(yè)之一。昆侖能源主要從事城市燃?xì)狻⑻烊粴夤艿?、液化天然氣（LNG）和壓縮天然氣（CNG）終端、天然氣發(fā)電和分布式能源、液化天然氣加工與儲(chǔ)運(yùn)、液化石油氣（LPG）銷售等業(yè)務(wù)。昆侖能源作為中石油控股子公司，借助母公司資源優(yōu)勢(shì)和協(xié)同效應(yīng)，業(yè)務(wù)廣布于中國(guó)31個(gè)省、自治區(qū)、直轄市，天然氣年銷售規(guī)模200億立方米，LNG接收站接卸能力1900萬(wàn)噸，液化石油氣年銷售600萬(wàn)噸以上。營(yíng)業(yè)收入不斷增長(zhǎng)，天然氣銷售業(yè)務(wù)為主要營(yíng)收來(lái)源。近年來(lái)，昆侖能源的營(yíng)業(yè)收入穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，2023H1870.72億元，同比增長(zhǎng)3.8%；稅前利潤(rùn)為67.91億元，同比增長(zhǎng)8.2%。昆侖燃?xì)?023H1天然氣銷售/LPG銷售加工與儲(chǔ)運(yùn)/勘探與生產(chǎn)營(yíng)收分別為688.96/138.04/37.64/6.08億元，其中天然氣銷售業(yè)務(wù)為公司主要營(yíng)收來(lái)源，占比達(dá)79.1%，收入同比增長(zhǎng)8.5%，超過(guò)公司總營(yíng)收增速3.8%。其次為L(zhǎng)PG銷售業(yè)務(wù)，營(yíng)收占比15.8%。天然氣銷量增速穩(wěn)定，天然氣價(jià)差穩(wěn)定程度高。2023上半年，昆239.169.0，其中零147.879.5%。2023上半年，昆侖能源的天然氣價(jià)差為0.495元/2022元/立方米，穩(wěn)中有升。終端市場(chǎng)規(guī)模保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，用戶總量1522.023.4%50.69萬(wàn)戶。公司持續(xù)擴(kuò)充運(yùn)營(yíng)版圖，上半年共收購(gòu)、新設(shè)、增資擴(kuò)股控股城鎮(zhèn)燃?xì)忭?xiàng)52023630272個(gè)控股城燃項(xiàng)目。隨著各地區(qū)民用氣順價(jià)政策不斷落地，未來(lái)公司的天然氣價(jià)差有望穩(wěn)中有升。新興業(yè)務(wù)格局框架基本成型，可持續(xù)發(fā)展動(dòng)能更加強(qiáng)勁。昆侖能源深入踐行綠色發(fā)展理念，重點(diǎn)發(fā)力新能源指標(biāo)獲取，搶灘布局風(fēng)光氣電融合業(yè)務(wù)，獲取新能源指標(biāo)300萬(wàn)千瓦，8個(gè)新能源項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)運(yùn)行。綜合能源業(yè)務(wù)提速推進(jìn)，圍繞用戶側(cè)氣、電、熱、冷等多樣化用能需求，不斷豐富用能場(chǎng)景，推動(dòng)12個(gè)項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)運(yùn)行、24個(gè)項(xiàng)目有序開展。同時(shí)，公司持續(xù)完善ESG管治體系，已實(shí)現(xiàn)MSCI評(píng)級(jí)連續(xù)三年提升。207,953盈利預(yù)測(cè)與投資建議：7%我們預(yù)計(jì)公司FY23-25年公司主營(yíng)業(yè)收入分別為1,821.58/1,950.66/6,8602,079.53億人民幣，對(duì)應(yīng)歸母凈利潤(rùn)為60.95/64.97/68.60億人民6%幣，根據(jù)DCF模型測(cè)算，預(yù)計(jì)的目標(biāo)價(jià)為7.96HKD/股，給予“優(yōu)于0.79大市”評(píng)級(jí)。14.7%14.0%風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：91、天然氣政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；2、天然氣價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；3、終端需求不及預(yù)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)楊斌BinYangbin.yang@本研究報(bào)告由海通國(guó)際分銷，海通國(guó)際是由海通國(guó)際研究有限公司，海通證券印度私人有限公司，海通國(guó)際株式會(huì)社和海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)其他各成員單位的證券研究團(tuán)隊(duì)所組成的全球品牌，海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證translationthe圖2：2019-2023H1收入及增速和稅前利潤(rùn)及增速情況（單位：億元，%）資料來(lái)源：，HTI業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)穩(wěn)定，天然氣銷售業(yè)務(wù)為主要營(yíng)收來(lái)源。昆侖燃?xì)?023H1天然氣銷售/LPG銷售/LNG加工與儲(chǔ)運(yùn)/勘探與生產(chǎn)營(yíng)收分別為688.96/138.04/37.64/6.08億元，其中天然氣銷售業(yè)務(wù)為公司主要營(yíng)收來(lái)源，占比達(dá)79.1%，收入同比增長(zhǎng)8.5%，超過(guò)公司總營(yíng)收增速3.8%。其次為L(zhǎng)PG銷售業(yè)務(wù)，營(yíng)收占比15.8%。圖3：2019-2023H1營(yíng)收構(gòu)成 圖4：2023H1營(yíng)收構(gòu)成（單位：億元）資料來(lái)源：，HTI 資料來(lái)源：，HTI公司注重股東回報(bào)，股息率穩(wěn)步提升。公司股息政策為每年派息總額不少于本公司股東應(yīng)占本集團(tuán)合并年度利潤(rùn)的25%，而2022年與2021年派息率均達(dá)到35%。近五年公司的普通股息穩(wěn)定在0.2元/股以上，2022年達(dá)到0.26元/股，股息率5.15%。未來(lái)，公司有望進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)股東回報(bào)能力。圖5：2018-2022派息情況及股息率資料來(lái)源：，HTI現(xiàn)金流狀況健康，流動(dòng)比率與凈資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率穩(wěn)定。昆侖能源的流動(dòng)比率基本穩(wěn)定在1上下，凈資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率穩(wěn)定在0.7上下。公司主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)具備穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)的現(xiàn)金流的特性，加上一套有效及完善的資金管理系統(tǒng)，在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和資本市場(chǎng)仍存在不確定因素的環(huán)境下，公司始終保持業(yè)務(wù)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展與健康的現(xiàn)金流。局框架基本成型天然氣銷售：零售氣量銷售比重不斷提高，天然氣價(jià)差穩(wěn)定程度高天然氣銷量增速穩(wěn)定，零售氣量銷售比重不斷提高。2023上半年，昆侖能源實(shí)現(xiàn)天然氣銷量239.16億立方米，同比增長(zhǎng)9.0%，其中零售氣量147.87億立方米，同比增長(zhǎng)9.5%。零售氣量中，工業(yè)/商業(yè)/居民/加氣站銷量分別為96.56/17.02/19.81/14.47億立方米，同比+11.1%/+11.5%/-0.3%/+11.6%。公司持續(xù)優(yōu)化銷氣結(jié)構(gòu)和市場(chǎng)布局，不斷提高零售氣量銷售比重。圖6：2019-2023H1天然氣銷量結(jié)構(gòu)（單位：億立方米） 圖7：2019-2023H1零售氣量結(jié)構(gòu)（單位：億立方米）資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI 資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI天然氣價(jià)差穩(wěn)定程度高，積極拓展用戶數(shù)量。2023上半年，昆侖能源的天然氣價(jià)差為0.495元/20220.01元/立方米，穩(wěn)中有升。終端市場(chǎng)規(guī)模保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，用戶總量達(dá)1522.023.4%萬(wàn)戶，49.261.43萬(wàn)戶。公司持續(xù)擴(kuò)充運(yùn)營(yíng)版圖，上半年共520236日，公司共有272個(gè)控股城燃項(xiàng)目。隨著各地區(qū)民用氣順價(jià)政策不斷落地，未來(lái)公司的天然氣價(jià)差有望穩(wěn)中有升。圖8：天然氣銷售用戶數(shù)量按地區(qū)分布資料來(lái)源：公司官網(wǎng)，HTI圖9：2019-2023H1天然氣價(jià)差（單位：人民幣立方米） 圖10：2019-2023H1用戶數(shù)量（單位：萬(wàn)戶）資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI 資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI增值業(yè)務(wù)大力實(shí)施同心多元化戰(zhàn)略，打造綠色低碳轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展新的增長(zhǎng)極。昆侖能源以昆侖慧享線上線下一體化服務(wù)平臺(tái)為依托，加快布局線下體驗(yàn)店，全面提升營(yíng)業(yè)廳服務(wù)功能。無(wú)錫洛社營(yíng)業(yè)廳創(chuàng)新實(shí)景布置，營(yíng)造“刷臉購(gòu)物”消費(fèi)新體驗(yàn)；集客戶服務(wù)、增值業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品展示、VR實(shí)景燃?xì)獍踩逃δ艿摹袄龌巯?”伊犁線下旗艦店開業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)，提升用戶服務(wù)新體驗(yàn)。3.2液化石油氣(LPG)銷售：近七成LPG銷量為批發(fā)，LPG上游資源主要來(lái)自中國(guó)石油昆侖能源負(fù)責(zé)中國(guó)石油所屬煉化企業(yè)、油氣田企業(yè)資源的統(tǒng)一銷售，年銷量超過(guò)650萬(wàn)噸，約占國(guó)內(nèi)LPG表觀消費(fèi)量的五分之一。2023H1LPG萬(wàn)噸，同比增加5.17%138.557.99%；除所得稅前4.237.64%LPG銷量為批發(fā)，和零售的LPG202.16/91.5368.8%/31.2%。同時(shí)，公司不斷優(yōu)化資源結(jié)構(gòu)，新增廣東石化、大港油田等企業(yè)LPG資源購(gòu)銷。圖11：LPG銷量按地區(qū)分布 圖12：2019-2023H1LNG銷量結(jié)構(gòu)（單位：萬(wàn)噸）資料來(lái)源：公司官網(wǎng)，HTI 資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTILPG上游資源主要來(lái)自中國(guó)石油，東北為主要銷售地區(qū)。20236日，公89.2%LPG上游資源來(lái)自大股東中國(guó)石油，LPG上游供應(yīng)穩(wěn)定。按地區(qū)劃分，2023H1公司LPG銷售量主要在東北地區(qū)，占比37.1%；其次為西北地區(qū)，占比20.7%。圖13：2023H1LPG上游資源量構(gòu)成 圖14：2023H1按地區(qū)劃分銷售量資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI 資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI3.3LNG加工與儲(chǔ)運(yùn)：LNG接收站規(guī)模有望提升受到23年初暖冬影響，LNG處理量小幅下降。2023H1接收站共實(shí)現(xiàn)氣化、裝車量73.366.73%；兩座接收站平均負(fù)6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。1538.9%，實(shí)現(xiàn)自產(chǎn)自銷4.18億立方米，實(shí)現(xiàn)委托加工量6.78億立方米，同比分別減少32.03%、。2023H1，LNG51.88稅前溢利人民幣13.4119.94%20236日，公司有唐山接收站和如東接收站，項(xiàng)目規(guī)模均為650萬(wàn)噸/接收站三期擴(kuò)建進(jìn)入驗(yàn)收階段，2023811LNG（一期）項(xiàng)目環(huán)評(píng)批復(fù)，建成后公接收站規(guī)模將新增650萬(wàn)噸/接收站規(guī)模提升，該業(yè)務(wù)板塊有望得到更大的發(fā)展空間。圖15：2019-2023H1LNG氣化量（單位：億立方米）、LNG裝車量（單位：億立方米）及平均負(fù)荷率（單位：%）

圖16：2019-2023H1LNG加工量（單位：億立方米）及平均加工負(fù)荷率（單位：%）資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI 資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI勘探與生產(chǎn)：國(guó)際油價(jià)回升有望帶動(dòng)該板塊業(yè)績(jī)修復(fù)公司于中國(guó)、哈薩克斯坦共和國(guó)、阿曼蘇丹國(guó)、秘魯共和國(guó)及泰王國(guó)從事勘探與生產(chǎn)原油及天然氣。2023H1，公司銷售原油484萬(wàn)桶，同比下降13.7%。由于國(guó)際原油價(jià)格逐步降溫，公司平均實(shí)現(xiàn)原油銷售價(jià)格從去年的77.8美元/桶下降至65.6美元/桶。同時(shí)，加上遼河冷家堡項(xiàng)目于本年2月末合同到期退出，原油銷售收入人民幣億元，同比減少48.61%2.89。受到紅海局勢(shì)影響，國(guó)際油價(jià)回升有望帶動(dòng)勘探與生產(chǎn)板塊業(yè)績(jī)修復(fù)。圖17：2019-2023H1原油權(quán)益銷售量（單位：萬(wàn)桶）及實(shí)現(xiàn)的原油平均銷售加工（單位：美元/桶）

圖18：勘探與生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)分布資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI 資料來(lái)源：公司公告，HTI新興業(yè)務(wù)：新能源業(yè)務(wù)推動(dòng)能源轉(zhuǎn)型，可持續(xù)發(fā)展動(dòng)能更加強(qiáng)勁新興業(yè)務(wù)格局框架基本成型，可持續(xù)發(fā)展動(dòng)能更加強(qiáng)勁。昆侖能源深入踐行綠色發(fā)展理念，重點(diǎn)發(fā)力新能源指標(biāo)獲取，搶灘布局風(fēng)光氣電融合業(yè)務(wù)，獲取新能源指標(biāo)300萬(wàn)千瓦，8個(gè)新能源項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)運(yùn)行。綜合能源業(yè)務(wù)提速推進(jìn)，圍繞用戶側(cè)氣、電、熱、冷等多樣化用能需求，不斷豐富用能場(chǎng)景，推動(dòng)12個(gè)項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)運(yùn)行、24個(gè)項(xiàng)目有序開展。同時(shí)，公司持續(xù)完善ESG管治體系，已實(shí)現(xiàn)MSCI評(píng)級(jí)連續(xù)三年提升。盈利預(yù)測(cè)及估值我們預(yù)計(jì)公司FY23-25年公司主營(yíng)業(yè)收入分別為1,821.58/1,950.66/2,079.53億人民幣，60.95/64.97/68.60DCF模型測(cè)算，預(yù)計(jì)的目標(biāo)價(jià)為HKD7.96/股，首次覆蓋給予優(yōu)于大市評(píng)級(jí)。圖19：DCF模型資料來(lái)源：年報(bào)，HTI風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示天然氣政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；天然氣價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；終端需求不及預(yù)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖20：財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表及比率資料來(lái)源：年報(bào)，HTIAppendixSummaryKunlunEnergyLimitedisoneofthelargestdomesticnaturalgasterminalutilizationandLPGsalesenterprisesinChina.KunlunEnergyisprimarilyengagedinbusinessessuchasurbangas,naturalgaspipelines,liquefiednaturalgasandcompressednaturalgas(CNG)terminals,naturalgaspowergenerationanddistributedenergy,processingandstorage,andLPGsales.asubsidiaryofPetroChina,KunlunEnergyleveragestheresourcesandsynergiesofitsparentcompany.Itsoperationsspanacross31provinces,autonomousregions,andmunicipalitiesinChina,withanannualnaturalgassalesvolumeof20billioncubicandanreceivingcapacityof19milliontons.TheannualsalesvolumeofLPGexceeds6milliontons.Thecompany'srevenuehascontinuouslygrowing,withnaturalgassalesbusinessbeingthemainsourceofrevenue.Inrecentyears,KunlunEnergyhasachievedsteadygrowthinrevenue,reachingRMB87.072billioninH12023,representingayear-on-yearincreaseof3.8%.Thepre-taxprofitwasRMB6.791billion,showingayear-on-yeargrowthof8.2%.TherevenuebreakdownforKunlunEnergyinH12023wasasfollows:naturalgassales/LPGsales/LNGprocessingandstorage/explorationproductionaccountedforRMB68.896/13.804/3.764/0.608billionrespectively.Thenaturalgassalesbusinessaccountedfor79.1%ofthetotalrevenue,withayear-on-yeargrowthof8.5%,surpassingtheoverallrevenuegrowthrateof3.8%.TheLPGbusinessaccountedfor15.8%oftherevenue.Thenaturalgassalesvolumehasmaintainedastablegrowthrate,andthestabilityofnaturalgaspricedifferentialsishigh.Inthefirsthalfof2023,KunlunEnergyachievedanaturalgassalesvolumeof23.916billioncubicmeters,representingayear-on-yearincreaseof9.0%.Theretailgasvolumewas14.787billioncubicmeters,showingayear-on-yearincreaseof9.5%.Inthesameperiod,thenaturalgaspricedifferentialforKunlunEnergywas0.495RMB/cubicwhichincreasedby0.01RMB/cubiccomparedthefirsthalfof2022,indicatingastableandupwardtrend.Theterminalmarketsizehasmaintainedastablegrwithatotalof15.22millionhouseholdsascustomers,representingayear-on-yearincreaseof3.4%,withanadditionof0.5069millionhouseholds.Thecompanycontinuesexpanditsoperationalfootprintandhasacquired,newlyestablished,andincreasedcapitalinfiveurbangasprojects.ofJune30,2023,thecompanyhasatotalof272controllingurbangasWiththeimplementationoffavorablepoliciesforcivilgaspricinginvariousregions,thenaturalgaspricedifferentialforthecompanyisexpectedmaintainastableandupwardtrendinthefuture.Theframeworkofemergingbusinesspatternsisbasicallyformed,andthesustainabledevelopmentisstronger.KunlunEnergydeeplyembracestheconceptofgreendevelopmentandfocusesonobtainingnewenergyindicators.Ithasthefieldofwind-solar-thermalintegratedpowergeneration,with3millionkilowattsofnewenergyindicatorsobtainedandtheoperationofeightnewenergyprojects.Thecomprehensiveenergybusinessisaccelerating,diversifyingenergyneedssuchasgas,electricity,heating,andcoolingontheuserside,enrichingenergyusagescenarios,andpromotingtheoperationof12projectsandtheorderlydevelopmentof24projects.thesametime,thecompanycontinuesimproveitsgovernancesystemandhasachievedcontinuousimprovementinMSCIratingsforthreeconsecutiveyears.Profitforecastandinvestmentrecommendation:Weanticipatethatthecompany'smainoperatingrevenueforFY23-25willbeRMB182.16/195.07/207.95billion,correspondinganetprofitofRMB6.11/6.46/6.49billion.BasedontheDCFmodel,thetargetpriceisestimatedbeHKD8.01pershare,initiatethecoveragewithanOUTPERFORMrating.Risks：1.Naturalgaspolicyrisk;2.Naturalgaspricefluctuationrisk;3,RiskoftheterminaldemandislessthanexpectedAPPENDIX2ESGCommentsEnvironmental:Methaneemissionratedecreased17.3%YoY;Environmentalprotectiontrainingcoveredmorethan12thousandspeopleSocial:EmbracesandmaintainsdiversityandinclusionGovernance:Has6authorityplansoftheboardofdirectors,deepeningthetermsystemandcontractualmanagement附錄APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究報(bào)告由海通國(guó)際分銷，海通國(guó)際是由海通國(guó)際研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通國(guó)際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團(tuán)隊(duì)所組成的全球品牌，海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證券活動(dòng)。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析師認(rèn)證AnalystCertification:我，楊斌，在此保證（i）（ii）（包括我們的家屬）（我已經(jīng)告知他們）報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3I,BinYang,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatIincludingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin3businessdaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益沖突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures/（請(qǐng)發(fā)郵件至ERDDisclosure@htiseccom）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.rasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationshipthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@htisec.comiftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).601857.CH目前或過(guò)去12個(gè)月內(nèi)是海通的客戶。海通向客戶提供非投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)的證券相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)。601857.CHis/wasaclientofHaitongcurrentlyorwithinthepast12months.Theclienthasbeenprovidedfornon-investment-bankingsecurities-relatedservices.海通在過(guò)去的12個(gè)月中從601857.CH獲得除投資銀行服務(wù)以外之產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)的報(bào)酬。Haitonghasreceivedcompensationinthepast12monthsforproductsorservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingfrom601857.CH.評(píng)級(jí)定義（從2020年7月1日開始執(zhí)行）：（“HTI）HTI的評(píng)級(jí)定義。并且HTI基于各自情況（）分析師股票評(píng)級(jí)優(yōu)于大市12-1810%中性，未來(lái)12-18FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們會(huì)將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類別。弱于大市12-1810%TOPIX,KOSPI,TAIEX,Nifty100,美–SP500;其他所有中國(guó)概念股MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinvestors.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andother

評(píng)級(jí)分布RatingDistributionconsiderations.AnalystStockRatingsOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–Taiwan–TAIEX,–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.截至20231231日海通國(guó)際股票研究評(píng)級(jí)分布優(yōu)于大市中性弱于大市(持有)海通國(guó)際股票研究覆蓋率 89.4%9.6%1.0%投資銀行客戶* 3.9%*在每個(gè)評(píng)級(jí)類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。5.1%5.6%上述分布中的買入，中性和賣出分別對(duì)應(yīng)我們當(dāng)前優(yōu)于大市，中性和落后大市評(píng)級(jí)。只有根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE此前的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)定義（直至2020年6月30日）：買入，未來(lái)1218個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)漲幅在10%中性，未來(lái)1218FINRA/NYSE賣出，未來(lái)1218個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)跌幅在10%各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本–TOPIX,韓國(guó)–KOSPI,臺(tái)灣–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100;其他所有中國(guó)概念股–MSCIChina.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofDecember31,2023Outperform Neutral Underperform(hold)HTIEquityResearchCoverage 89.4% 9.6% 1.0%IBclients* 3.9% 5.1% 5.6%*Percentageofinvestmentbankingclientsineachratingcategory.BUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andUnderperform.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30Jun2020):BUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.海通國(guó)際非評(píng)級(jí)研究：海通國(guó)際發(fā)布計(jì)量、篩選或短篇報(bào)告，并在報(bào)告中根據(jù)估值和其他指標(biāo)對(duì)股票進(jìn)行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍數(shù)提出建議價(jià)格。這種排名或建議價(jià)格并非為了進(jìn)行股票評(píng)級(jí)、提出目標(biāo)價(jià)格或進(jìn)行基本面估值，而僅供參考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:HaitongInternationalpublishesquantitative,screeningorshortreportswhichmayrankstocksaccordingtovaluationandothermetricsormaysuggestpricesbasedonpossiblevaluationmultiples.Suchrankingsorsuggestedpricesdonotpurporttobestockratingsortargetpricesorfundamentalvaluesandareforinformationonly.海通國(guó)際A股覆蓋：海通國(guó)際可能會(huì)就滬港通及深港通的中國(guó)A股進(jìn)行覆蓋及評(píng)級(jí)。海通證券（600837.CH），海通國(guó)際于上海的母公司，也會(huì)于中國(guó)發(fā)布中國(guó)A股的研究報(bào)告。但是，海通國(guó)際使用與海通證券不同的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)，所以海通國(guó)際與海通證券的中國(guó)A股評(píng)級(jí)可能有所不同。HaitongInternationalCoverageofA-Shares:HaitongInternationalmaycoverandrateA-SharesthataresubjecttotheHongKongStockConnectschemewithShanghaiandShenzhen.HaitongSecurities(HS;600837CH),theultimateparentcompanyofHTISGbasedinShanghai,coversandpublishesresearchonthesesameA-SharesfordistributioninmainlandChina.However,theratingsystememployedbyHSdiffersfromthatusedbyHTIandasaresulttheremaybeadifferenceintheHTIandHSratingsforthesameA-sharestocks.海通國(guó)際優(yōu)質(zhì)100A股（Q100）指數(shù)：海通國(guó)際Q100指數(shù)是一個(gè)包括100支由海通證券覆蓋的優(yōu)質(zhì)中國(guó)A股的計(jì)量產(chǎn)品。這些股票是通過(guò)基于質(zhì)量的篩選過(guò)程，并結(jié)合對(duì)海通證券A股團(tuán)隊(duì)自下而上的研究。海通國(guó)際每季對(duì)Q100指數(shù)成分作出復(fù)審。HaitongInternationalQuality100A-share(Q100)Index:HTI’sQ100Indexisaquantproductthatconsistsof100ofthehighest-qualityA-sharesundercoverageatHSinShanghai.Thesestocksarecarefullyselectedthroughaquality-basedscreeningprocessincombinationwithareviewoftheHSA-shareteam’sbottom-upresearch.TheQ100constituentcompaniesarereviewedquarterly.盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)通免責(zé)聲明條款：在使用盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)之前，請(qǐng)務(wù)必仔細(xì)閱讀本條款并同意本聲明：第一條義利（FINESG）（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“本公司”）（）績(jī)表現(xiàn)不作為日后回報(bào)的預(yù)測(cè)。（（））SusallWaveFIN-ESGDataServiceDisclaimer:PleasereadthesetermsandconditionsbelowcarefullyandconfirmyouragreementandacceptancewiththesetermsbeforeusingSusallWaveFIN-ESGDataService.FIN-ESGDataisproducedbySusallWaveDigitalTechnologyCo.,Ltd.(Inshort,SusallWave)’sassessmentbasedonlegalpubliclyaccessibleinformation.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformation.Theassessmentresultisforreferenceonly.Itisnotforanyinvestmentadviceforanyindividualorinstitutionandnotforbasisofpurchasing,sellingorholdinganyrelativefinancialproducts.WewillnotbeliableforanydirectorindirectlossofanyindividualorinstitutionasaresultofusingSusallWaFIN-ESGData.SusallWadonotconsiderrecipientsascustomersforreceivingthesedata.Whenusingthedata,recipientsshallmakeyourownindependentjudgmentaccordingtoyourpracticalindividualstatus.Thecontentsofthedatareflectthejudgmentofusonlyonthereleaseday.Wehaverighttoupdateandamendthedataandreleaseotherdatathatcontainsinconsistentcontentsordifferentconclusionswithoutnotification.Unlessexpresslystated,thedata(e.g.,financialperformancedata)representspastperformanceonlyandthepastperformancecannotbeviewedasthepredictionoffuturereturn.ThecopyrightofthisdatabelongstoSusallWa,andreserveallrightsinaccordancewiththelaw.Withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofourcompany,noneofindividualorinstitutioncanusethesedataforanyprofitablepurpose.Besides,noneofindividualorinstitutioncantakeactionssuchasamendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,excerpts,issuance,rent,exhibition,performance,projection,broadcast,informationnetworktransmission,shooting,addingiconsandinstructions.IfanylossofSusallWaoranythird-partyiscausedbythoseactions,usersshallbearthecorrespondingcompensationliability.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyloss.Ifanytermisnotcontainedinthisdisclaimerbutwritteninotheragreementsonourwebsite(e.g.UserRegistrationProtocolofSusallWaWebsite,UserService(includingauthentication)AgreementofSusallWaveWebsite,PrivacyPolicyofSusallwaveWebsite),itshouldbeexecutedaccordingtootheragreements.Ifthereisanydifferencebetweenthisdisclaimandotheragreements,thisdisclaimershallbeapplied.重要免責(zé)聲明：非印度證券的研究報(bào)告：本報(bào)告由海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)有限公司（“HTISGL”）（“HTIRL”）（571章）4（）HTISGLHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK）HTIJKK管為投資顧問(wèn)。印度證券的研究報(bào)告：SecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia（“SEBI”）HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited（“HTSIPL）BSELimited（“BSE”）NationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited（“NSE）（）HTSIPL20161222并成為海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。所有研究報(bào)告均以海通國(guó)際為名作為全球品牌，經(jīng)許可由海通國(guó)際證券股份有限公司及/或海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)的其他成員在其司法管轄區(qū)發(fā)布。HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他屬于海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)有限公司（“HTISG）/HTISG任。除對(duì)本文內(nèi)容承擔(dān)責(zé)任的分析師除外，HTISG及我們的關(guān)聯(lián)公司、高級(jí)管理人員、董事和雇員，均可不時(shí)作為主事人就本文件所述的任何證券或衍生品持有長(zhǎng)倉(cāng)或短倉(cāng)以及進(jìn)行買賣。HTISG的銷售員、交易員和其他專業(yè)人士均可向HTISGHTISG一致的投資決策。但HTIRL請(qǐng)?jiān)L問(wèn)海通國(guó)際網(wǎng)站www.equities.htisec.com，查閱更多有關(guān)海通國(guó)際為預(yù)防和避免利益沖突設(shè)立的組織和行政安排的內(nèi)容信息。非美國(guó)分析師披露信息：本項(xiàng)研究首頁(yè)上列明的海通國(guó)際分析師并未在FINRA進(jìn)行注冊(cè)或者取得相應(yīng)的資格，并且不受美國(guó)FINRA有關(guān)與本項(xiàng)研究目標(biāo)公司進(jìn)行溝通、公開露面和自營(yíng)證券交易的第2241條規(guī)則之限制。IMPORTANTDISCLAIMERForresearchreportsonnon-Indiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupLimited(“HTISGL”)andalicensedcorporationtocarryonType4regulatedactivity(advisingonsecurities)forthepurposeoftheSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinance(Cap.571)ofHongKong,withtheassistanceofHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHTISGLandwhichisregulatedasanInvestmentAdviserbytheKantoFinanceBureauofJapan.ForresearchreportsonIndiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),anIndiancompanyandaSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)registeredStockBroker,MerchantBankerandResearchAnalystthat,interalia,producesanddistributesresearchreportscoveringlistedentitiesontheBSELimited(“BSE”)andtheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited(“NSE”)(collectivelyreferredtoas“IndianExchanges”).HSIPLwasacquiredandbecamepartoftheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”)on22December2016.AlltheresearchreportsaregloballybrandedunderthenameHaitongInternationalandapprovedfordistributionbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”)and/oranyothermemberswithinHTISGintheirrespectivejurisdictions.Theinformationandopinionscontainedinthisresearchreporthavebeencompiledorarrivedatfromsourcesbelievedtobereliableandingoodfaithbutnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadebyHTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKKoranyothermemberswithinHTISGfromwhichthisresearchreportmaybereceived,astotheiraccuracy,completenessorcorrectness.Allopinionsexpressedhereinareasofthedateofthisresearchreportandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisresearchreportisforinformationpurposeonly.Descriptionsofanycompaniesortheirsecuritiesmentionedhereinarenotintendedtobecompleteandthisresearchreportisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedexpresslyorimpliedlyas,anoffertobuyorsellsecurities.Thesecuritiesreferredtointhisresearchreportmaynotbeeligibleforpurchaseorsaleinsomejurisdictions.Ifaninvestmentproductisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthananinvestor'shomecurrency,achangeinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffecttheinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresults.Certaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingderivatives,giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Youshouldalsobearinmindthatrecommendationsinthisresearchreportarenottailor-madeforyou.Theanalysthasnottakenintoaccountyouruniquefinancialcircumstances,suchasyourfinancialsituationandriskappetite.Youmust,therefore,analyzeandshould,whereapplicable,consultyourownlegal,tax,accounting,financialandotherprofessionaladviserstoevaluatewhethertherecommendationssuitsyoubeforeinvestment.NeitherHTISGnoranyofitsdirectors,employeesoragentsacceptsanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanydirectorconsequentiallossarisingfromanyuseofthematerialscontainedinthisresearchreport.HTISGandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployees,excludingtheanalystsresponsibleforthecontentofthisdocument,willfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearchreport.Sales,traders,andotherprofessionalsofHTISGmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestotherelevantclientsandthecompanieswithinHTISGthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTISGmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTIisundernoobligationtoensurethatsuchothertradingdecisions,ideasorrecommendationsarebroughttotheattentionofanyrecipientofthisresearchreport.PleaserefertoHTI’swebsiteforfurtherinformationonHTI’sorganizationalandadministrativearrangementssetupforthepreventionandavoidanceofconflictsofinterestwithrespecttoResearch.NonU.S.AnalystDisclosure:TheHTIanalyst(s)listedonthecoverofthisResearchis(are)notregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAandarenotsubjecttoU.S.FINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcompaniesthatarethesubjectoftheResearch;publicappearances;andtradingsecuritiesbyaresearchanalyst.分發(fā)和地區(qū)通知：除非下文另有規(guī)定，否則任何希望討論本報(bào)告或者就本項(xiàng)研究中討論的任何證券進(jìn)行任何交易的收件人均應(yīng)聯(lián)系其所在國(guó)家或地區(qū)的海通國(guó)際銷售人員。香港投資者的通知事項(xiàng)：海通國(guó)際證券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)負(fù)責(zé)分發(fā)該研究報(bào)告，HTISCL是在香港有權(quán)實(shí)施第1類受規(guī)管活動(dòng)（從事證券交易）的持牌公司。該研究報(bào)告并不構(gòu)成《證券及期貨條例》（香港法例第571章）（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“SFO”）所界定的要約邀請(qǐng)，證券要約或公眾要約。本研究報(bào)告僅提供給SFO所界定的“專業(yè)投資者”。本研究報(bào)告未經(jīng)過(guò)證券及期貨事務(wù)監(jiān)察委員會(huì)的審查。您不應(yīng)僅根據(jù)本研究報(bào)告中所載的信息做出投資決定。本研究報(bào)告的收件人就研究報(bào)告中產(chǎn)生或與之相關(guān)的任何事宜請(qǐng)聯(lián)系HTISCL銷售人員。美國(guó)投資者的通知事項(xiàng)：HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKK編寫。HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKKHTISG1934年“美國(guó)證券交易法”15a6（“MajorU.S.InstitutionalInvestor）資者」（”US.InstitutionalInvestors）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.（“HTIUSA”）HTIUSA。HTIUSA340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor,NewYork,NY10173，電話（212）351-6050。HTIUSA是在美國(guó)于US.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission（“SEC”）FinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthority,Inc.（“FINRA”）HTIUSAHSIPLHTIRL或HTIJKKHSIPLHTIRLHTIJKKFINRAFINRA2241（包括ADR）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor NewYork,NY10173聯(lián)系人電話：(212)3516050DISTRIBUTIONANDREGIONALNOTICESExceptasotherwiseindicatedbelow,anyRecipientwishingtodiscussthisresearchreportoreffectanytransactioninanysecuritydiscussedinHTI’sresearchshouldcontacttheHaitongInternationalsalespersonintheirowncountryorregion.NoticetoHongKonginvestors:TheresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),whichisalicensedcorporationt