2024年春季行業(yè)比較之市場交易特征篇：“寧組合”是否調(diào)整充分

“寧組合”是否調(diào)整充分？2024年春季行業(yè)比較之市場交易特征篇證券分析師：林麗梅

A0230513090001

劉雅婧

A0230521080001郝丹陽

A0230523120002

王勝

A0230511060001研究支持： 馮彧

A02301230800012024.03.18估值PE(TTM)16倍、PB

2.4倍4147.336745.605527.6111431.668588.6313788.6213162.7224088.7915746.5120502.3327540.1326870.7114308.7920404.176637.8005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00018/1018/1118/1219/0119/0219/0319/0419/0519/0619/0719/0819/0919/1019/1119/1220/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0920/1020/1120/1221/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0921/1021/1121/1222/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0922/1022/1122/1223/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0923/1023/1123/1224/0124/02收盤價(jià)最高價(jià)/最低價(jià)15833.27

DE16696.33FCBA1浪2浪3浪業(yè)績估值共振，貢獻(xiàn)幅度差不多殺估值業(yè)績?cè)鏊僦袠邢乱疲愿咴鲭A段每波最大漲幅每波最大跌幅每波上漲交易天數(shù)每波下跌交易1浪-26%132浪31%-47%211613浪43%-67%293903波下行：30個(gè)月（2021年8月-2024年2月）CXO（醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包）資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注圖示點(diǎn)位為階段性最高點(diǎn)和最低點(diǎn)3估值PE(TTM)49倍、PB2.6倍1316.172272.521677.782932.292315.595222.783260.245869.834076.035669.224116.727642.585631.777063.765380.532561.8101,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00018/1018/1118/1219/0119/0219/0319/0419/0519/0619/0719/0819/0919/1019/1119/1220/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0920/1020/1120/1221/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0921/1021/1121/1222/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0922/1022/1122/1223/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0923/1023/1123/1224/0124/02收盤價(jià)最高價(jià)/最低價(jià)DEFABC2浪3浪1浪階段每波最大漲幅每波最大跌幅每波上漲交易天數(shù)每波下跌交易天數(shù)1浪-26%472浪25%-46%38963浪42%-52%733633792.043波下行：31個(gè)月（2021年7月-2024年2月）業(yè)績提升顯著超預(yù)期估值不變殺估值業(yè)績?cè)鏊僦袠邢乱茦I(yè)績、估值共振半導(dǎo)體資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注圖示點(diǎn)位為階段性最高點(diǎn)和最低點(diǎn)4估值PE(TTM)16倍、PB2.2倍5450.924756.574174.007072.425166.446381.335516.976986.8510392.4020950.2914535.9034829.4729178.4418815.4623265.7910085.3905,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00018/1018/1118/1219/0119/0219/0319/0419/0519/0619/0719/0819/0919/1019/1119/1220/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0920/1020/1120/1221/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0921/1021/1121/1222/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0922/1022/1122/1223/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0923/1023/1123/1224/0124/02收盤價(jià)最高價(jià)/最低價(jià)12688.6010681.81

DEFCBA3浪階段每波最大漲幅每波最大跌幅每波上漲交易天數(shù)每波下跌交易天數(shù)1浪-51%992浪69%-36%49763浪24%-57%6025317230.843波下行：27個(gè)月（2021年11月-2024年2月）1浪2浪業(yè)績估值共振，估值提升更明顯殺估值業(yè)績?cè)鏊僦袠邢乱?，仍高增業(yè)績估值共振，業(yè)績大幅加速且超預(yù)期電池資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注圖示點(diǎn)位為階段性最高點(diǎn)和最低點(diǎn)5估值PE(TTM)9倍、PB2倍1575.111966.183345.313351.424282.222856.5311258.137245.7715557.1614914.369954.358246.3815058.054881.8902,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00018/1018/1118/1219/0119/0219/0319/0419/0519/0619/0719/0819/0919/1019/1119/1220/0120/0220/0320/0420/0520/0620/0720/0820/0920/1020/1120/1221/0121/0221/0321/0421/0521/0621/0721/0821/0921/1021/1121/1222/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0922/1022/1122/1223/0123/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0923/1023/1123/1224/0124/02收盤價(jià)最高價(jià)/最低價(jià)D2713.9EFC2672.66BA

2244.14階段每波最大漲幅每波最大跌幅每波上漲交易天數(shù)每波下跌交易天數(shù)1浪-36%1082浪28%-35%19333浪83%-68%603573波下行：30個(gè)月（2021年8月-2024年2月）1浪12717.7912108.472浪3浪估值不變主要靠業(yè)績提升殺估值業(yè)績加速且不斷上調(diào)盈利預(yù)測(cè)業(yè)績估值共振估值提升更明顯光伏設(shè)備資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注圖示點(diǎn)位為階段性最高點(diǎn)和最低點(diǎn)6過去熱門行業(yè)后期回撤最大幅度：下跌70%-80%左右代碼名稱801125.SI白酒801150.SI醫(yī)藥生物851563.SI醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包(CXO)801080.SI電子801081.SI半導(dǎo)體801750.SI計(jì)算機(jī)801760.SI傳媒801770.SI通信801735.SI光伏設(shè)備801737.SI電池最高價(jià)日2008-01-142008-01-172007-09-112007-05-292007-05-292008-01-212008-01-032008-01-242008-03-042007-05-28最低價(jià)日2008-11-072008-11-042008-11-042008-11-042008-11-042008-11-042008-11-042008-10-282008-11-042008-11-04持續(xù)時(shí)間200194279354354192204184166355漲跌幅-66%-59%-76%-75%-74%-68%-68%-65%-78%-70%PE(TTM）18318225292332182217PB(LF)4.82.61.91.31.31.92.31.71.61.7最高價(jià)日2012-07-122010-11-252011-06-272010-12-202010-11-252010-11-112010-04-122010-01-142011-03-172011-02-22最低價(jià)日2014-01-102012-01-172012-11-282012-12-042012-11-282012-12-042012-12-042012-12-042012-11-282012-11-28持續(xù)時(shí)間363281349478491505646702417434漲跌幅-59%-40%-51%-53%-57%-50%-50%-61%-70%-54%PE(TTM）8275228553227294335PB(LF)2.53.42.82.11.92.42.51.31.82.5最高價(jià)日2021-02-182015-06-122015-06-052015-06-122015-06-122015-06-052015-06-052015-06-152015-06-152015-06-15最低價(jià)日2024-02-022016-01-272016-02-012019-01-042019-01-032018-10-162018-10-192018-10-192015-09-292015-09-29持續(xù)時(shí)間7231551638718708208238177474漲跌幅-46%-45%-50%-58%-62%-70%-79%-64%-53%-46%PE(TTM）23377323383721346838PB(LF)6.34.27.62.12.32.51.82.03.84.3最高價(jià)日2018-05-292018-05-292021-07-272021-07-302020-07-102020-07-142020-07-142017-11-132017-09-12最低價(jià)日2019-01-032019-01-042024-02-052024-02-052024-02-052022-10-252022-05-122018-11-302018-11-30持續(xù)時(shí)間149150616613871554443258297漲跌幅-41%-31%-51%-63%-56%-51%-40%-36%-43%PE(TTM）234534494325272628PB(LF)2.64.61.92.62.31.61.72.02.7最高價(jià)日2021-02-102021-08-052021-08-302021-11-30最低價(jià)日2024-02-052024-02-062024-02-052024-02-05持續(xù)時(shí)間725610592533漲跌幅-50%-71%-64%-69%PE(TTM）2216916PB(LF)2.22.42.02.2資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注：以上為長周期視角下漲跌幅統(tǒng)計(jì)，可能存在一定統(tǒng)計(jì)誤差7過去各行業(yè)后期回撤最大幅度資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注：以上為長周期視角下漲跌幅統(tǒng)計(jì)，可能存在一定統(tǒng)計(jì)誤差8代碼行業(yè)最高價(jià)日最低價(jià)日持續(xù)時(shí)間漲跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)801040.SI鋼鐵2007-09-182008-11-04274-77%60.9801950.SI煤炭2007-09-242008-11-07273-77%92.0801050.SI有色金屬2007-10-152008-11-04260-86%131.5801960.SI石油石化2007-11-052008-11-07248-74%252.1801030.SI基礎(chǔ)化工2008-01-102008-11-04199-70%171.9801710.SI建筑材料2008-01-152008-11-04196-76%251.3801170.SI交通運(yùn)輸2008-01-152008-11-07199-71%131.6801720.SI建筑裝飾2008-01-072008-10-28197-58%302.1801890.SI機(jī)械設(shè)備2007-10-172008-11-04258-71%121.9801970.SI環(huán)保2007-09-112008-11-04279-73%191.6801160.SI公用事業(yè)2007-09-192008-10-28268-63%401.8801730.SI電力設(shè)備2008-01-152008-11-04196-66%303.0801735.SI光伏設(shè)備2008-03-042008-11-04166-78%221.6801737.SI電池2007-05-282008-11-04355-70%171.7801740.SI國防軍工2008-01-082008-11-04201-81%191.8801880.SI汽車2007-09-182008-11-04274-78%81.2801110.SI家用電器2008-01-212008-10-28187-68%121.6801010.SI農(nóng)林牧漁2008-03-042008-11-04166-66%332.2801120.SI食品飲料2008-01-152008-11-07199-67%283.5801125.SI白酒2008-01-142008-11-07200-66%184.8801150.SI醫(yī)藥生物2008-01-172008-11-04194-59%312.6851563.SI醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包2007-09-112008-11-04279-76%821.9801200.SI商貿(mào)零售2008-01-152008-11-04196-69%152.0801210.SI社會(huì)服務(wù)2007-09-182008-11-07277-79%311.6801130.SI紡織服飾2007-05-292008-11-04354-73%131.4801140.SI輕工制造2008-01-152008-11-04196-75%141.1801980.SI美容護(hù)理2008-01-162008-11-10199-69%301.7801080.SI電子2007-05-292008-11-04354-75%251.3801081.SI半導(dǎo)體2007-05-292008-11-04354-74%291.3801750.SI計(jì)算機(jī)2008-01-212008-11-04192-68%231.9801760.SI傳媒2008-01-032008-11-04204-68%322.3801770.SI通信2008-01-242008-10-28184-65%181.7801180.SI房地產(chǎn)2007-11-012008-11-07250-75%211.6801780.SI銀行2007-11-012008-10-28242-69%71.7801790.SI非銀金融2007-11-022008-11-04246-76%132.3過去各行業(yè)后期回撤最大幅度（續(xù)）代碼行業(yè)最高價(jià)日最低價(jià)日持續(xù)時(shí)間漲跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)801040.SI鋼鐵2009-08-042013-06-25941-68%200.7801950.SI煤炭2009-07-242014-03-111,120-73%91.0801050.SI有色金屬2010-11-022014-01-20782-62%372.2801960.SI石油石化2009-08-042013-06-25941-53%191.9801030.SI基礎(chǔ)化工2010-01-042013-06-25839-48%262.0801710.SI建筑材料2011-04-082013-06-25536-54%231.6801170.SI交通運(yùn)輸2009-08-052013-06-25940-55%121.1801720.SI建筑裝飾2011-02-152014-03-11744-42%101.2801890.SI機(jī)械設(shè)備2011-03-092012-12-04427-54%131.7801970.SI環(huán)保2010-04-132012-12-04645-42%272.3801160.SI公用事業(yè)2009-08-052012-12-04811-43%191.7801730.SI電力設(shè)備2010-11-112012-12-04505-63%271.8801735.SI光伏設(shè)備2011-03-172012-11-28417-70%431.8801737.SI電池2011-02-222012-11-28434-54%352.5801740.SI國防軍工2010-11-052012-12-04509-56%321.9801880.SI汽車2010-11-092012-09-27464-55%121.6801110.SI家用電器2011-03-282012-08-30351-37%131.8801010.SI農(nóng)林牧漁2010-11-102012-12-04506-52%262.4801120.SI食品飲料2010-11-292014-06-20863-32%173.0801125.SI白酒2012-07-122014-01-10363-59%82.5801150.SI醫(yī)藥生物2010-11-252012-01-17281-40%273.4851563.SI醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包2011-06-272012-11-28349-51%522.8801200.SI商貿(mào)零售2010-11-112013-06-25634-56%171.7801210.SI社會(huì)服務(wù)2010-11-112012-01-06284-36%353.0801130.SI紡織服飾2010-11-112013-06-25634-47%191.6801140.SI輕工制造2010-11-112012-12-04505-50%361.5801980.SI美容護(hù)理2010-11-102012-01-19294-34%343.1801080.SI電子2010-12-202012-12-04478-53%282.1801081.SI半導(dǎo)體2010-11-252012-11-28491-57%551.9801750.SI計(jì)算機(jī)2010-11-112012-12-04505-50%322.4801760.SI傳媒2010-04-122012-12-04646-50%272.5801770.SI通信2010-01-142012-12-04702-61%291.3801180.SI房地產(chǎn)2009-07-242013-06-25948-47%111.6801780.SI銀行2009-07-312012-09-26770-40%51.0801790.SI非銀金融2009-07-292013-06-25945-53%231.6資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注：以上為長周期視角下漲跌幅統(tǒng)計(jì)，可能存在一定統(tǒng)計(jì)誤差9過去各行業(yè)后期回撤最大幅度（續(xù)）資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注：以上為長周期視角下漲跌幅統(tǒng)計(jì)，可能存在一定統(tǒng)計(jì)誤差10代碼行業(yè)最高價(jià)日最低價(jià)日持續(xù)時(shí)間漲跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)801040.SI鋼鐵2015-06-152016-02-01157-59%881.1801950.SI煤炭2015-06-092016-02-15166-53%261.2801050.SI有色金屬2015-06-122016-01-29157-54%742.6801960.SI石油石化2015-06-152016-01-27154-51%201.6801030.SI基礎(chǔ)化工2015-06-152016-01-27154-48%422.5801710.SI建筑材料2015-06-152016-01-29156-50%311.9801170.SI交通運(yùn)輸2015-06-152016-03-01173-52%191.8801720.SI建筑裝飾2015-06-082016-02-29177-56%151.6801890.SI機(jī)械設(shè)備2015-06-032016-03-01181-55%592.7801970.SI環(huán)保2015-06-122016-01-29157-48%433.7801160.SI公用事業(yè)2015-06-152016-02-29172-51%182.1801730.SI電力設(shè)備2015-06-122016-03-01174-52%413.2801735.SI光伏設(shè)備2015-06-152015-09-2974-53%683.8801737.SI電池2015-06-152015-09-2974-46%384.3801740.SI國防軍工2015-05-272018-10-19830-72%541.9801880.SI汽車2015-06-152018-10-19817-58%131.4801110.SI家用電器2015-07-142015-09-1544-32%142.5801010.SI農(nóng)林牧漁2015-06-122018-10-19818-57%252.4801120.SI食品飲料2015-06-152016-01-27154-40%243.4801125.SI白酒2021-02-182024-02-02723-46%236.3801150.SI醫(yī)藥生物2015-06-122016-01-27155-45%374.2851563.SI醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包2015-06-052016-02-01163-50%737.6801200.SI商貿(mào)零售2015-06-122020-02-031,129-69%131.3801210.SI社會(huì)服務(wù)2015-06-122015-09-0258-44%554.1801130.SI紡織服飾2015-06-152015-09-1564-48%303.0801140.SI輕工制造2015-06-122016-01-29157-47%533.0801980.SI美容護(hù)理2015-06-152015-08-2652-46%373.5801080.SI電子2015-06-122019-01-04871-58%232.1801081.SI半導(dǎo)體2015-06-122019-01-03870-62%382.3801750.SI計(jì)算機(jī)2015-06-052018-10-16820-70%372.5801760.SI傳媒2015-06-05 2018-10-19 823-79%211.8801770.SI通信2015-06-152018-10-19817-64%342.0801180.SI房地產(chǎn)2019-04-192024-02-051,168-61%110.6801780.SI銀行801790.SI非銀金融2020-12-302022-10-31443-41%121.0過去各行業(yè)后期回撤最大幅度（續(xù)）801040.SI鋼鐵2017-09-042020-02-04585-47%80.8801950.SI煤炭2017-09-122020-04-28638-46%70.9801050.SI有色金屬2017-09-122018-10-19267-50%211.7801960.SI石油石化2018-01-252020-05-25563-40%121.1801030.SI基礎(chǔ)化工2017-09-122019-01-04320-36%131.6801710.SI建筑材料2017-04-122019-01-04426-37%101.5801170.SI交通運(yùn)輸2017-04-132018-10-19372-34%151.3801720.SI建筑裝飾2017-04-112020-02-04686-50%80.9801890.SI機(jī)械設(shè)備2016-11-232018-10-19465-49%241.6801970.SI環(huán)保2017-04-132024-02-061,662-68%161.1801160.SI公用事業(yè)2017-04-142020-02-04683-45%171.3801730.SI電力設(shè)備2016-11-232018-10-19465-48%211.6801735.SI光伏設(shè)備2017-11-132018-11-30258-36%262.0801737.SI電池2017-09-122018-11-30297-43%282.7801740.SI國防軍工801880.SI汽車801110.SI家用電器2018-01-262018-10-30182-39%112.3801010.SI農(nóng)林牧漁2022-01-052024-02-05508-39%432.3801120.SI801125.SI食品飲料白酒2021-02-182024-02-05724-47%234.8801150.SI醫(yī)藥生物2018-05-292019-01-03149-41%232.6851563.SI醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包2018-05-292019-01-04150-31%454.6801200.SI商貿(mào)零售2020-07-132024-02-05870-65%231.3801210.SI社會(huì)服務(wù)2021-02-182024-02-05724-59%382.1801130.SI紡織服飾2016-11-242024-02-051,753-65%191.4801140.SI輕工制造2016-11-282018-10-19462-50%141.5801980.SI美容護(hù)理2021-07-012024-02-05634-61%252.9801080.SI電子2021-07-272024-02-05616-51%341.9801081.SI半導(dǎo)體2021-07-302024-02-05613-63%492.6801750.SI計(jì)算機(jī)2020-07-102024-02-05871-56%432.3801760.SI傳媒2020-07-142022-10-25554-51%251.6801770.SI通信2020-07-142022-05-12443-40%271.7801180.SI房地產(chǎn)801780.SI銀行801790.SI非銀金融代碼行業(yè)最高價(jià)日最低價(jià)日持續(xù)時(shí)間漲跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注：以上為長周期視角下漲跌幅統(tǒng)計(jì)，可能存在一定統(tǒng)計(jì)誤差11過去各行業(yè)后期回撤最大幅度（續(xù)）代碼行業(yè)最高價(jià)日最低價(jià)日持續(xù)時(shí)間漲跌幅PE(TTM）PB(LF)801040.SI鋼鐵2021-09-092024-02-05584-53%190.8801950.SI煤炭2022-06-152023-08-22292-30%61.1801050.SI有色金屬2021-09-132024-02-05582-50%131.7801960.SI石油石化2021-09-162024-01-23570-32%141.1801030.SI基礎(chǔ)化工2021-09-162024-02-05579-54%171.4801710.SI建筑材料2021-09-102024-02-05583-54%151.0801170.SI交通運(yùn)輸801720.SI建筑裝飾801890.SI機(jī)械設(shè)備801970.SI環(huán)保801160.SI公用事業(yè)801730.SI電力設(shè)備2021-11-232024-02-05538-61%141.9801735.SI光伏設(shè)備2021-08-302024-02-05592-64%92.0801737.SI電池2021-11-302024-02-05533-69%162.2801740.SI國防軍工801880.SI汽車801110.SI家用電器2021-01-132022-10-31434-48%122.1801010.SI農(nóng)林牧漁801120.SI801125.SI食品飲料白酒801150.SI醫(yī)藥生物2021-02-102024-02-05725-50%222.2851563.SI醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包2021-08-052024-02-06610-71%162.4801200.SI商貿(mào)零售801210.SI社會(huì)服務(wù)801130.SI紡織服飾801140.SI輕工制造2022-01-072024-02-05506-43%221.4801980.SI美容護(hù)理801080.SI801081.SI電子半導(dǎo)體801750.SI計(jì)算機(jī)801760.SI傳媒801770.SI通信801180.SI房地產(chǎn)801780.SI801790.SI銀行非銀金融資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究；備注：以上為長周期視角下漲跌幅統(tǒng)計(jì)，可能存在一定統(tǒng)計(jì)誤差12機(jī)構(gòu)并非一定隨著行業(yè)絕對(duì)股價(jià)觸底而同步加倉公募基金加倉行為并非隨一定隨著行業(yè)調(diào)整結(jié)束，隨行業(yè)反彈而加倉，而是有可能會(huì)延續(xù)慣性繼續(xù)減倉。如2014年1月10日白酒行業(yè)絕對(duì)股價(jià)見底開始拐頭向上（經(jīng)歷了為期1年半，幅度為59%的下跌），但是公募基金對(duì)白酒的配置卻沒有結(jié)束下行趨勢(shì)，而是繼續(xù)下行到2015Q1。公募基金配置系數(shù)從2012Q1的4.25倍，先是調(diào)整到2014Q1的0.89倍，后繼續(xù)降低至2015Q1的0.39倍才算見底，三個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)的持倉占比分別為13.7%、1.6%和0.5%。2012年12月股價(jià)見底的電子，機(jī)構(gòu)的配置提前兩個(gè)季度搶跑加倉，但在2013年下半年至2015年，雖然電子走勢(shì)不斷攀升，但公募配置卻呈現(xiàn)減倉行為。電子配置系數(shù)于2013Q1最高的2.23下降至2014Q4的0.99，與此同時(shí)，電子卻上漲了46%。0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.5002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000白酒配置系數(shù)（右軸）0.000.501.001.502.002.507001,2001,7002,2002,7003,2003,7004,2004,7005,200電子配置系數(shù)（右軸）資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究13機(jī)構(gòu)并非一定隨著行業(yè)絕對(duì)股價(jià)觸底而同步加倉2018年年底到2019年年初股價(jià)見底的電子、計(jì)算機(jī)、通信、傳媒，除通信外，其余三者在股價(jià)觸底反彈后，機(jī)構(gòu)仍然有至少連續(xù)半年進(jìn)行減倉，直至2019年下半年（甚至更遠(yuǎn)的時(shí)間），機(jī)構(gòu)持倉才重新進(jìn)入加倉通道。0.000.501.001.502.002.501,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000計(jì)算機(jī) 配置系數(shù)（右軸）0.000.501.001.502.002.503004005006007008009001,000傳媒配置系數(shù)（右軸）0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.405001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500通信配置系數(shù)（右軸）0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%4001,4002,4003,4004,4005,4006,400電子 配置系數(shù)（右軸）資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究14機(jī)構(gòu)的配置不僅取決于行業(yè)絕對(duì)收益，更重要的是相對(duì)收益歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)上，具備一定成長性的行業(yè)在絕對(duì)股價(jià)調(diào)整到位之后，雖有絕對(duì)收益但后續(xù)1-2年并無明顯超額收益率，并不是市場最為關(guān)注的品種。2014年1月見底的白酒、2012年12月見底的電子、2018年年底見底的電子、計(jì)算機(jī)、傳媒、通信后續(xù)1年的絕對(duì)漲幅是42%、43%、74%、21%、48%、20%；相對(duì)上證指數(shù)的漲幅是-10%、50%、51%、-1%、26%、-2%；相對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指數(shù)的漲幅是30%、-40%、30%、-23%、4%、-24%。（備注：由于白酒在2014年初見底，故取見底當(dāng)年2014年進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)；電子第二輪見底為2019年初，故取見底當(dāng)年即2019年進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)；另外除電子外，其余行業(yè)相對(duì)市場并無明顯超額收益）。見底時(shí)間（T）下一年

(或當(dāng)年)絕對(duì)漲跌幅%2014年1月 2012年12月 2019年初 2018年底 2018年底 2018年底2014/12/31 2013/12/31 2019/12/31 2019/12/31 2019/12/31 2019/12/3142 43 74 21 48 20相對(duì)上證漲跌幅%相對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指漲跌幅%-105051-1-2326-2-2430-40304基金持倉（見底時(shí)）基金持倉（T年末或T+1下半年中）1.4% 2.3% 6.0% 2.6% 7.8% 2.0%1.2% 5.1% 5.3% 1.8% 6.6% 1.5%配置系數(shù)（見底時(shí)）配置系數(shù)（T年末或T+1下半年中）0.85 1.36 1.80 1.38 1.92 0.830.77 2.06 1.50 0.90 1.47 0.83資料來源：Wind、申萬宏源研究15白酒 電子 電子 傳媒 計(jì)算機(jī) 通信機(jī)構(gòu)的配置不僅取決于行業(yè)絕對(duì)收益，更重要的是相對(duì)收益機(jī)構(gòu)的加減倉行為與行業(yè)絕對(duì)走勢(shì)并非完全一致，更多取決于當(dāng)時(shí)行業(yè)的市場相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱，資金總是會(huì)向更新的主題、更強(qiáng)勁的進(jìn)攻方向進(jìn)行加倉。公募基金加倉行為并非隨一定隨著行業(yè)調(diào)整結(jié)束，隨行業(yè)反彈而加倉，而是有可能會(huì)延續(xù)慣性繼續(xù)減倉。白酒 絕對(duì)漲幅 相對(duì)上證漲幅 相對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指漲幅 歸母凈利潤增速 持倉占比 配置系數(shù)42%

-10%

30%

-16%1.2%1.3%0.770.871023%

13%

-62%

10%%3.1%2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/3128% 41% 56%93% 87% 104%45%9.2%1.452.52電子 絕對(duì)漲幅 相對(duì)上證漲幅 相對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指漲幅 歸母凈利潤增速 持倉占比 配置系數(shù)43%

50%

-40%

57%

5.1%

2.0619%

-34%

6%

11%

2.1%

0.992013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/3172%

63%

-12%

7%

6.0%

1.82-13%

0%

15%

26%

8.5%

2.