ofMacroeconomics宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布_第1頁(yè)
ofMacroeconomics宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布_第2頁(yè)
ofMacroeconomics宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布_第3頁(yè)
ofMacroeconomics宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布_第4頁(yè)
ofMacroeconomics宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布_第5頁(yè)
已閱讀5頁(yè)，還剩27頁(yè)未讀， 繼續(xù)免費(fèi)閱讀

下載本文檔

版權(quán)說(shuō)明：本文檔由用戶(hù)提供并上傳，收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方，若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán)，請(qǐng)進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)

文檔簡(jiǎn)介

ofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)-加州大學(xué)-詹姆斯·布2024/3/28ofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布QuestionsWhatmightthefutureofmacroeconomicsbring?Howmightthemacroeconomicstaughttwodecadesfromnowbedifferentfromthemacroeconomicstaughttoday?Whathavebeentheprincipalchangesinthewaymacroeconomicsistaughtoverthepasttwentyyears?ofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布QuestionsWhatadditionalchangestookplacetwentyyearsbeforethat--fromroughly1960toroughly1980?Whatdirectionwillmacroeconomicstakeiftherealbusinesscycleresearchprogramissuccessful?WhatdirectionwillmacroeconomicstakeifthenewKeynesianresearchprogramprovessuccessful?ofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布QuestionsHowwilleconomistsunderstandthefoundationsbehindthepowerofmonetarypolicy?ofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsA1936bookbyJohnMaynardKeynesshiftedeconomicresearchandmacroeconomicthoughtintonewanddifferentdirectionstheroleofexpectationsoffutureprofitsindetermininginvestmentthevolatilityofexpectationsofprofitsthepowerofthegovernmenttoaffecttheeconomythroughpolicythemultiplierprocessofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsAfterWorldWarII,moremacroeconomictheorywasdevelopedtheIS-LMmodelwascreatedtherelationshipbetweeninterestratesandthemoneysupplywasinvestigatedthedifferencebetweenthebehaviorofthemacroeconomyintheflexible-pricelongrunandthefixed-priceshortrunwasclarifiedofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsButmacroeconomicstheoryin1960wasstillincompletenodiscussionoftherelationshipbetweenproductionandinflationnodetailedmodelofexpectationstheshortrunwasseenaslastingfordecadesfiscalpolicywasemphasized,whiletheroleofmonetarypolicywasdownplayedestimatesofthemultiplierweremuchhigherthanwebelievenowtobecorrectofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsBetween1960and1980,twopowerfulcritiquesoftheconventionalwisdomofmacroeconomicsoccurredthefirstwasbyMiltonFriedmanthestandardmodelsoverestimatedthegovernment’sabilitytocontroltheeconomythestandardmodelsoverestimatedthepoweroffiscalpolicyandunderestimatedthepowerofmonetarypolicythemoneysupplytellsusmostofwhatweneedtoknowabouthowpolicyisworkingthereisanaturalrateofunemploymentofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsthesecondwasbyRobertLucasKeynesianeconomicsfailstothinkthroughtheimportanceofexpectationssystematicchangesineconomicpolicywouldchangetheparametersoftheconsumptionandinvestmentfunctionsaswellasthelocationofthePhillipscurveofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsThelate1980sand1990swereatimeofideagenerationandexplorationmacroeconomistsexploredandtestedalargenumberofdifferentideasandmodelsthemainstreampolicy-analyticpositionofmacroeconomistsdidnotshiftmuchofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?KeynesianandmonetaristeconomistsbelievethattherearetwokeyelementstounderstandingbusinesscyclesthedeterminantsofaggregatedemandthedivisionofchangesinnominalaggregatedemandintochangesinproductionandchangesinpricesofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?RealbusinesscycleeconomistsbelievethatchangesinnominalaggregatedemandaffectoutputandemploymentonlyslightlyandhavethemostimpactonpricesRealbusinesscycletheorybeginswiththeassumptionthatthesametheorythatdetermineswhathappensinthelongrunshouldbeappliedtofluctuationsintheshortrunofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?Whilerealbusinesscycleeconomistsbelievethatpricescanberigid,theybelievethatthissluggishnessofpricesisnotveryrelevanttheyassumethatitisareasonablefirst-approximationtosupposethatthemoneysupplyandthelevelofpotentialoutputdeterminethepricelevelthelevelofpotentialoutputismore-or-lessequaltoactualrealGDPofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?RealbusinesscycleeconomistsbelieveintheclassicaldichotomyrealvariableseffectivelydeterminethevaluesofrealquantitieslikerealGDPevenintheshortrunnominalvariablesdeterminethevaluesofnominalquantitieslikethepricelevelofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?RealbusinesscycletheoryassumesthatthelevelofoutputwillvarywithshockstotheeconomyadversecostshocksleadtoarecessionasindividualsshouldspendlesstimeworkingbecauseitisnotprofitablefavorablecostshocksleadtoaboomperiodbecauseitisadvantageoustoproduceasmuchaspossibleofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ProblemsofRealBusinessCycleTheoryUnemploymentrealbusinesscycletheoryassumesthatthetotalhoursworkedatanymomentislargelydeterminedbyhowmanyhoursitmakessenseforpeopletoworkbutwhenworkhoursfall,itisnotbecausepeoplehavechosentoworkshortershiftsandavoidovertimeitisbecausetheyhavebecomeunemployedofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ProblemsofRealBusinessCycleTheoryTechnologyandRealBusinessCyclesaccordingtorealbusinesscycletheory,productionfluctuatesbecauseofthechangingvalueofoutputandthechangingproductivityoftheeconomymoreisproducedwhentechnologyrisesrecessionsoccurwhencostincreasesmakeitinefficienttorunfactoriesatnearcapacitycriticsclaimthatcostincreaseslikethe1973oilpriceshockaretheexceptionratherthantheruleofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ProblemsofRealBusinessCycleTheoryMoneyandBusinessCyclesrealbusinesscycletheoriststendtoarguethatmonetarypolicyhaslittleimpactonproductionandemploymentfluctuationsinthemoneystockandrealinterestratesaremorereactionstochangesalreadytakingplacetheFederalReservebelievesthatitaffectsthelevelofinterestratesandthatitsdecisionscausechangesinproductionandemploymentofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:NewKeynesianEconomicsSincethe1930s,mainstreammacroeconomicshasattributedthesluggishnessofaggregatesupplytostickinessinwagesandpricesTherefore,fluctuationsinnominalaggregatedemandcausefluctuationsinoutputandemploymentofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:NewKeynesianEconomicsWheredoesthisstickinessandslowadjustmentofwagesandpricescomefrom?menucostsitiscostlyforbusinessestochangepricesstaggeredpricesandcoordinationfailuresafirm’sbestchoiceforitspricemaydependonthepricesthatotherfirmsarechargingthismeansthatwagesandpricesmayexhibitinertiaofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布DebtsandDeficits:

RicardianEquivalenceIfthegovernmentrunsabudgetdeficit,itwillmakeupthedeficitbyborrowingmoneynowandimplicitlycommittingtoraisetaxestorepaythedebtatsometimeinthefutureofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布DebtsandDeficits:

RicardianEquivalenceEconomistRobertBarroarguesthatconsumerswillseethebudgetdeficitasanincreaseinfuturetaxesandcutbackonconsumptionwhatmattersforthedeterminationofconsumptionspendingthisyearisnotwhattaxesareleviedonyouthisyear,butwhatallthechangesingovernmentpolicytellyouaboutstreamoftaxesthisyearandinthefutureofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布DebtsandDeficits:

RicardianEquivalenceManyeconomistsbelievethatRicardianequivalencedoesnotholdforanumberofreasonsmyopialiquidityconstraintspeoplearedifferentofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ConsumptionandSavingIntheearly1900s,themarginalpropensitytoconsumewashighpeoplewereliquidityconstrainedThefinancialsysteminthepast50yearshasbecomemuchmoreflexibleeconomictheorywouldpredictthatthemarginalpropensitytoconsumewoulddeclineandthemultiplierprocesswouldbemoreorlessirrelevanttoaggregatedemandofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ConsumptionandSavingBut,consumptionfallssignificantlywhentheeconomygoesintorecessionWhy?onepossibilityisthatconsumersarebothimpatientandriskaverseanotherpossibleexplanationisthatcurrentincomeisagoodproxyforpermanentincomeanothersuggestionisforeconomiststofocusonwhatpsychologistshavetosayabouthowhumansreasonofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布DoesMonetaryPolicyHaveaLong-RunFuture?EconomistshavetendedtoassumethatmonetarypolicyispowerfulandthatthereasonsforitspowerareuninterestingThefutureevolutionofthefinancialsystemmayunderminethesourcesofinfluencethatmonetarypolicytodaypossessesofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布DoesMonetaryPolicyHaveaLong-RunFuture?ForecastingthefutureofmonetarypolicywillrequireadeeperknowledgeandbettermodelsofthesourcesofcentralbankpowerthanmacroeconomistscurrentlypossessofMacroeconomics(宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·布ChapterSummaryModernmacroeconomicshasitsorigininthe“Keynesian”theoriesoftheGreatDepressionandpost-WWIIeraModernmacroeconomicswasreforgedbythemonetaristsunderMiltonFriedmaninthe1960sand1970s,andbytherationalexpectationseconomistsledbyRobertLucasin

溫馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有資源如無(wú)特殊說(shuō)明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請(qǐng)下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
  • 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請(qǐng)聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶(hù)所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網(wǎng)頁(yè)內(nèi)容里面會(huì)有圖紙預(yù)覽，若沒(méi)有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒(méi)有圖紙。
  • 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
  • 5. 人人文庫(kù)網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)空間，僅對(duì)用戶(hù)上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理，對(duì)用戶(hù)上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對(duì)任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
  • 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容，請(qǐng)與我們聯(lián)系，我們立即糾正。
  • 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶(hù)因使用這些下載資源對(duì)自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。

最新文檔

評(píng)論

0/150

提交評(píng)論