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qlTIL中級課程風(fēng)險管理
Contents
CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTION
1.1Purposeofthisguide
1.2Whatismanagementofrisk?
Inthisguideriskisdefinedasuncertaintyofoutcome,whetherpositiveopportunityornegative
threat.Theterm'managementofrisk'incorporatesalltheactivitiesrequiredtoidentifyandcontrol
theexposuretoriskwhichmayhaveanimpactontheachievementofanorganisation'sbusiness
objectives.
Everyorganisationmanagesitsrisk,butnotalwaysinawaythatisvisible,repeatableand
consistentlyappliedtosupportdecisionmaking.Thetaskofmanagementofriskistoensurethat
theorganisationmakescosteffectiveuseofariskprocessthathasaseriesofwelldefinedsteps.
Theaimistosupportbetterdecisionmakingthroughagoodunderstandingofrisksandtheirlikely
impact.
Therearetwodistinctphases:riskanalysisandriskmanagement.Riskanalysisisconcernedwith
gatheringinformationaboutexposuretorisksothattheorganisationcanmakeappropriate
decisionsandmanageriskappropriately.
Managementofriskinvolveshavingprocessesinplacetomonitorrisks,accesstoreliableandupto
dateinformationaboutrisks,therightbalanceofcontrolinplacetodealwiththoserisks,and
decisionmakingprocessessupportedbyaframeworkofriskanalysisandevaluation.
Managementofriskcoversawiderangeoftopics,includingbusinesscontinuitymanagement,
security,programme/projectriskmanagementandoperationalservicemanagement.Thesetopics
needtobeplacedinthecontextofanorganisationalframeworkforthemanagementofrisk.Some
risk-relatedtopics,suchassecurity,arehighlyspecialisedandthisguidanceprovidesonlyan
overviewofsuchaspects.
1.3Whymanagementofriskisimportant
Acertainamountofrisktakingisinevitableifyourorganisationistoachieveitsobjectives.Effective
managementofriskhelpsyoutoimproveperformancebycontributingto:
?increasedcertaintyandfewersurprises
?betterservicedelivery
?moreeffectivemanagementofchange
?moreefficientuseofresources
bettermanagementatalllevelsthroughimproveddecisionmaking
reducedwasteandfraud,andbettervalueformoney
innovation
?managementofcontingentandmaintenanceactivities.
1.4Whoisinvolvedinriskmanagement
Inpractice,everyoneinanorganisationisinvolvedinriskmanagementtosomeextentandshould
beawareoftheirresponsibilitiesinidentifyingandmanagingrisk.However,therearesomeaspects
forwhichresponsibilitymustbeassignedtoindividuals.Withoutclearresponsibility(andthe
authoritytosupportthatresponsibility)someriskswillbemissedoroverlooked.
Inthepublicsector,therearetwomajorroleswithaclearresponsibilitytoensurerisksaremanaged
(therewillbeequivalentstotheserolesinprivatesectororganisations).Theserolesare:
?anAccountingOfficer(orequivalentseniormanager),whoisresponsibleforthe
organisation'soverallexposuretorisk.TypicallythispersonwillbetheChiefExecutive
Officer(CEO);theseniormanagerintheorganisation.Theymaydelegatesomeofthe
actionsbutcannotforgotheresponsibility
?aseniormanageractingasaproject'owner;whoisresponsibleforriskrelatingtoaspecific
programmeorprojectandfortherealisationofassociatedbusinessbenefits.
Audienceforthisguidance
Businessmanagers,processowners,strategicplanners,projectandprocurementteams,business
continuityplannersandsecurityteamsaretheprimaryaudienceforthisguidance,togetherwith
theirserviceproviders.
Itwillalsobeofinteresttoauditors,withtheirresponsibilityforensuringeffectivecorporate
governance.
1.5Howtousethisguide
Chapter1introducesthestructure,processandcultureofmanagementofrisk,explainingwhy
organisationsneedtodeviseandimplementeffectivestrategiesinordertomaximiseopportunities
andminimisethreatstotheachievementoftheirbusinessobjectives.Itidentifieskeypersonnelin
themanagementofriskandthetargetaudiencefortheguidance.
TheAnnexesprovidesupportingdetail:
1.6Theresearchforthisguidance
CHAPTER2:PRINCIPLES
Thischapteroutlinesthekeyprinciplesunderpinningtheeffectivemanagementofrisk.
2.1Criticalsuccessfactorsformanagementofrisk
Thekeyelementsthatneedtobeinplaceifriskmanagementistobeeffective,andinnovation
encouraged,include:
?clearlyidentifiedseniormanagementtosupport,ownandleadonriskmanagement
?riskmanagementpoliciesandthebenefitsofeffectivemanagementclearlycommunicated
toallstaff
?existenceandadoptionofaframeworkformanagementofriskthatistransparentand
repeatable
?existenceofanorganisationalculturewhichsupportswellthought-throughrisktakingand
innovation
?managementofriskfullyembeddedinmanagementprocessesandconsistentlyapplied
?managementofriskcloselylinkedtoachievementofobjectives
?risksassociatedwithworkingwithotherorganisationsexplicitlyassessedandmanaged
?risksactivelymonitoredandregularlyreviewedonaconstructive'no-blame'basis.
Jointworkingandpartnershipsofteninvolvemorecomplextypesofriskthatcanadverselyaffect
thedeliveryofbusinessservices.Forexample,ifpartoftheserviceprovidedbyoneorganisationis
delayedorofpoorquality,thesuccessofthewholecollaborationcanbeputatrisk.Youmustmake
surethatyourorganisationknowsabouttheriskmanagementapproachesofyourpartners.Sharing
informationaboutriskmanagementmeansthatrisksincollaborativeprogrammescanbeidentified
andmanagedinaproactiveway.
Publicsectorconcerns
TheModernisingGovernmentinitiativeseekstoencouragethepublicsectortoadoptwellmanaged
risktakingwhereitislikelytoleadtosustainableimprovementsinservicedelivery.Moreeffective
riskmanagementwillimprovethepublicsector'sabilitytoundertaketheincreasinglycomplexand
cross-cuttingprojectsthataredemandedbytheModernisationagenda.Publicsectororganisations
needtohaveinplacetheskills,managementstructuresandorganisationalstructurestotake
advantageofpotentialopportunitiestoperformbetterandtoreducethepossibilityoffailure.
Thekeyareasthathavetobeaddressedare:
?theneedfora'riskowner'atseniorlevel,foranactivity(strategy,programmeorproject).
Heorsheissupportedbyriskownersateverydayworkinglevelsasappropriateforthe
activityandriskexposure
?theneedforimprovedreportingandupwardreferralofmajorproblems
?opportunitiesandthepotentialresolutionapproaches
theneedforsharedunderstandingofriskmanagementatalllevelsintheorganisationand
withpartners,combinedwithconsistenttreatmentofrisk
managingprojectriskinthewidercontextofprogrammesofchangeandthebusiness.
Meetingtheneedsofcorporategovernance
Corporategovernanceistheongoingactivityofmaintainingasoundsystemofinternalcontrolto
safeguardshareholders'investmentandthecompany'sassets.
TheTurnbullReportstatesthat:
'acompany/sobjectives,itsinternalorganisationandtheenvironmentwhichitoperatesinare
continuallyevolvingandasaresulttherisksitfacesarecontinuallychanging.Asoundsystemof
controlthereforedependsonathoroughandregularevaluationofthenatureandextentoftherisks
towhichthecompanyisexposed.Sinceprofits[orbusinessresults]areinparttherewardfor
successfulrisktakinginbusiness,thepurposeofinternalcontrolistohelpmanageandcontrolrisk
ratherthaneliminateit.'
Corporategovernanceframeworksmustensurethatmanagementisheldaccountablefora
corporation'sperformanceandthatownersareabletomonitorandinterveneintheoperationsof
management.
Theseprinciplesapplyequallytothepublicandprivatesectors.Whereascorporationsfocusmainly
onshareholderreturnsandthepreservationofshareholders'value,thepublicsector'sroleisto
implementprogrammescosteffectivelyinaccordancewithGovernmentlegislationandpolicies.
Policyonmanagementofrisktosupportcorporate
governance
Tosupportcorporategovernance,thereneedstobeariskmanagementpolicyinplace.Thispolicy
should:
?beappropriateforthesizeandnatureofyourorganisation,itsbusinessandoperating
environment
?beclearabouttheroles(and,ifpossible,individuals)thatareresponsibleforrisk
?beclearaboutescalationcriteriainrelationtoriskmanagement(i.e.zwhentoreferdecision
makingupwards)
?ensurethatprocesses,andthecuIture/infrastructure,toidentifyandmanageriskareputin
place;theseprocessesmustberepeatable
setupthemechanismformonitoringthesuccessoftheapplicationofthepolicy(including
reportstomanagement,atleastannually)
?ensurethatinternalcontrolmechanismsareinplaceforindependentassessmentthatthe
policyisimplemented(andchecked).
2.2Whatisatriskandwhy?
Relatingmanagementofrisktosafety,securityandbusiness
continuity
Managementofriskshouldbecarriedoutinthewidercontextofsafetyconcerns,securityand
businesscontinuity.
?Healthandsafetypolicyandpracticeisconcernedwithensuringthattheworkplaceisa
safeenvironment.
?Securityisconcernedwithprotectingtheorganisation'sassets,includinginformation,
buildingsandsoon.
?Businesscontinuityisconcernedwithensuringthattheorganisationcouldcontinueto
operateintheeventofadisaster;suchaslossofaservice,floodorfiredamage.
岡
Figure1:Reasonsforariskmanagementprocess
Reducingriskinlargescaleprojects
Experiencehasshownthatprogrammesandprojectsattemptingalargescale,comprehensive
businesschangearelesslikelytobesuccessfulthanthosetakingalessambitious,step-by-step
approach.Althoughthelatterincreasesmanagementactivity,witheachoftheelementsneedingto
becontrolledandcoordinated,theadvantagesarethatactivitiesare:
?easiertomanage
?simplertoimplementwithinthebusinessenvironment
?easiertoacceptformallyas,typically,thespecificationiseasiertodocumentandthus
simplertoverifythatithasbeenmet
?abletooffermoreoptionsforcontingency
?morelikelytoaccommodatefastmovingchangesintechnology,orinthepoliticalor
financialenvironment
abletooffermoredecisionpoints,allowinggreatercontroloftheproject.
2.3Decisionsaboutrisk
Decisionsaboutriskneedtobebalancedsothatthepotentialbenefitsareworthmoretothe
organisationthanitcoststoaddresstherisk.
Forexample,innovationisinherentlyriskybutcouldachievemajorbenefitsinimprovingservices.
Theabilityoftheorganisationtolimititsexposuretoriskwillalsobeofrelevance.
Youshouldaimtomakeanaccurateassessmentoftherisksinagivensituationandanalysethe
potentialbenefits.Therisksandopportunitiespresentedbyeachcourseofactionshouldbedefined
inordertoidentifyappropriateresponse.
Scopeofdecisions
Decisionsaboutriskwillvarydependingonwhethertheriskrelatestolong,mediumorshort-term
goals.
Strategicdecisionsareprimarilyconcernedwithlong-termgoals;thesesetthecontextfordecisions
atotherlevelsoftheorganisation.Therisksassociatedwithstrategicdecisionsmaynotbecome
apparentuntilwellintothefuture.Thusitisessentialtoreviewthesedecisions,andassociatedrisks,
onaregularbasis.
Medium-termgoalsareusuallyaddressedthroughprogrammesandprojectstobringaboutbusiness
change.Decisionsrelatingtomedium-termgoalsarenarrowerinscopethanstrategicones,
particularlyintermsoftimeframeandfinancialresponsibilities.
Therearealsoconsiderationsaboutwhatcanrealisticallybeachievedinonechangeinitiative.
Deliveryofeachofthecomponentsofachangeinitiative(whetheraprogramme,projectorstage)
mustprovidesomedirectbenefittotheorganisationasaresultofitsdelivery.Thiscouldbeby
delivering:
?amajorcomponenttosupport/buildtowardstheintendedoutcome-forexample,
providingatelephonehelplinefirstaspartofanewinformationserviceandthenadding
websiteservicestoexpandthefacilitiesavailabletothepublic
?theproducttopartoftheendusercommunityandthen'rollingout'totherestofthat
community-forexample,introducinganewinformationserviceintheNorth-Eastand
graduallymakingitavailablenationwide.
Whenmanaginganyprojectitisessentialtoensuremajordecisionsaremadeappropriately.A
projectwillsupportsomebusinesschangeandsorequiresomethingtobeproducedandthenput
intouse.
0
Figure2:Mainstagesoftheprocurementprocess
2.4Whererisksoccur
Theriskmanagementprocessshouldbemostrigorouslyappliedwherecriticaldecisionsarebeing
made.
?strategicorcorporate
programme
project
operational.
Inpractice,thelevelsoverlap;however,itishelpfultoclarifytheoccurrenceofrisksattheselevels
toinformthekindofdecisionsyouarelikelytomake.
0
Figure3:Organisationalmanagementhierarchy
Itisimportanttonotethatariskmaymaterialiseinitiallyatonelevelbutsubsequentlyhaveamajor
impactatadifferentlevel.ArecentexampleisaHighStreetbankfacingtechnicalfaultsatthe
operationallevel;ultimatelycustomers'confidenceinthebank'sonlineservicebecameastrategic
risk.Thishighlightstheneedforrelevantinformationaboutriskstobesharedthroughoutthe
organisation.
Table1:Riskrelatedtoorganisationallevels
LevelExamplesoftypicalrisksconsideredatthislevel
Strategic/corporateCommercial,financial,political,environmental,directional,cultural,acquisition
andqualityrisks.Thereisafocusonbusinesssurvival,continuityandgrowth
forthefuture.Whenprogramme,projectandoperationalrisksexceedset
criteria-e.g.notacceptable,outsideagreedlimits,couldaffectstrategic
objectives,informationneedstobeescalatedtothislevelsothatappropriate
decisionscanbetaken.
ProgrammeProcurement/acquisition,funding,organisational,projects,security,safety,
qualityandbusinesscontinuityrisks.Whenprojectandoperationalrisksexceed
setcriteria一e.g.notacceptable,outsideagreedlimits,couldaffectprogramme
objectives,informationneedstobeescalatedtothislevelsothatappropriate
decisionscanbetaken.
ProjectPersonal,technical,cost,schedule,resource,operationalsupport,qualityand
providerfailure.Operationalissues/risksshouldbeconsideredatthislevelas
theyaffecttheprojectandhowitneedstoberun.Informationonstrategicand
programmerelatedrisksshouldbecommunicatedtothislevelwheretheycould
affectprojectobjectives.Projectmanagersshouldcommunicateinformationon
riskstootherprojectsandoperationsasappropriate.
OperationsPersonal,technical,cost,schedule,resource,operationalsupport,quality,
providerfailure,environmentalandinfrastructurefailure.AIIthehigherlevels
haveinputtothislevel;specificconcernsincludebusinesscontinuity
management/contingencyplanning,supportforbusinessprocessesand
customerrelations.
Additionalfactors
Additionalfactorsmayincreasethecomplexityofassessingoverallexposuretorisk.Theseinclude:
?interdependencies,orlinksbetweenprojectsand/orrelatedissues,wheretheimpactof
oneormoreriskscouldaffectothers,possiblycreatinga'domino'effect.Youshouldensure
thatanyknowninterdependenciesareidentifiedandassessedsothatappropriateaction
canbeplanned
?therelationshipbetweenbusinessbenefitsandriskstodelivery,whereachievementof
benefitsisdependentonsuccessfuldeliveryofaproject.Youshouldcontinuallycheck
whetherchangingplansaffecttheachievementofbenefits.
2.5Aframeworkformanagingrisk
Aframeworkformanagementofrisksetsthecontextinwhichriskswillbeidentified,analysed,
controlled,monitoredandreviewed.Itmustbeconsistentwithprocessesthatareembeddedin
everydaymanagementandoperationalpractices.Itaddresses:
?howrisksareidentified
?howinformationabouttheirprobabilityandpotentialimpactisobtained
?howrisksarequantified
?howoptionstodealwiththemareidentified
?howdecisionsonriskmanagementaremade,suchasfurtherriskreduction
?howthesedecisionsareimplemented
?howactionsareevaluatedfortheireffectiveness
howappropriatecommunicationmechanismsaresetupandsupported
howstakeholdersareengagedthroughouttheprocess.
2.6Riskownership
Fortheorganisation,ownershipoftheriskmanagementframeworklieswiththeAccountingOfficer
(orequivalentseniormanageratBoardlevel).Individualseniormanagersowntheprogrammeor
projectandareresponsibleforthemanagementoftheoverallriskofthatactivity.However,these
rolesdonotownalltheindividualrisks.Riskownershipmustbeclearlydefined,documentedand
agreedwiththeindividualownersatalllevels,sothattheyunderstandtheirvariousroles,
responsibilitiesandultimateaccountabilitywithregardtothemanagementofrisk.Theownerofa
riskmaynotbethepersontaskedwiththeassessmentormanagementoftherisk,butheorsheis
responsibleforensuringthemanagementofriskprocessisapplied-theremaybeseparateowners
toactuallydealwiththerisks.
Itisimportanttoidentifywhoowns:
?thesettingpolicyandtheorganisation'swillingnesstotakerisk
?themanagementofriskprocessatthedifferentlevels-thatis,strategic,programme,
project,operationallevels
?differentelementsofthemanagementofriskprocess,suchasidentifyingthreats,through
toproducingriskresponsesandreportingondecisions
?implementationoftheactualmeasurestakeninresponsetotherisks
?interdependentrisksthatcrossorganisationalboundaries,whethertheyarebusiness
processes,operationalservicesorprojects.
Forexample,foraseniormanagerwithresponsibilityforaproject,ownershipofriskcouldbe
definedasfollows:
Seniormanagersresponsibleforprojectsmustassurethemselvesthatanumberoftypesofriskare
beingtrackedanddealtwithaseffectivelyaspossible.Themechanismsinplaceformonitoringand
reportingriskwillvaryaccordingtothesizeandcomplexityoftheprojectorprogramme,ranging
fromtheuseofasimpleriskregistertotheappointmentofariskmanagerreportingdirectlytothe
seniormanager.Clearly,thedegreeofdelegationadoptedbytheseniormanagerwillvary,butheor
shemustbesurethatthecriticalissuesarebeingaddressed;forexample,throughchairingthe
projectboardorbydevelopingstrongmechanismsforreportingproblems.
Checklist:ownershipofriskandtheprocess
?Haveownersbeenallocatedforallthevariouspartsofthecompletemanagementofrisk
process?
Arethevariousrolesandresponsibilitiesassociatedwithownershipwelldefined?
?Dotheindividualswhohavebeenallocatedownershipactuallyhavetheauthorityand
capabilitytofulfiltheirresponsibilities?Forexample,suppliersmaybetaskedwithrisk
ownership.
?Havethevariousrolesandresponsibilitiesbeencommunicatedandunderstood?
?Arethenominatedownersappropriateandawareoftheirnomination?
?Isownershipreassessedonaperiodicbasis,orintheeventofachangeinthesituation;
andifnecessary,canitbequicklyandeffectivelyreallocated?
?Doallrisks,andwhereappropriatetheirmitigationactions,haveclearlyidentifiedowners?
Aretheseownersappropriate?
2.7Embeddingtheriskmanagementculture
Identifyingappropriatepolicies,standardsandpracticesisthefirststageofcreatingarisk
managementculture.Oncetheseareinplacetheyneedtobetotallyembeddedinindividuals
throughtheenactmentoftheirrolesandassociatedresponsibilities.
Awarenessofandresponsibilityforriskissuesmustbelinkedexplicitlytokeyobjectives,inorderto
buildasustainableriskmanagementculture.Thereshouldbedelegatedresponsibilityforrisksat
everylevelofobjectivesintheorganisation.Thisisthemajorsupporttoembeddingrisk
managementintotheorganisationanditsculture,withriskmanagementseenasanintrinsicpartof
thewayanorganisationworks.Asthepeopleinanorganisationchange,itisessentialtoensurea
continuingunderstandingofrolesandresponsibilitiesrelatedtomanagingrisk.
Theriskenvironmentisconstantlychangingtoo.Yourorganisation'sprioritiesandtherelative
importanceofriskswillshiftandchange.Assumptionsaboutriskhavetoberegularlyrevisitedand
reconsidered,perhapsbyannualreviewoftherisksassociatedwitheachofthekeyorganisational
objectives.
Establishingappropriatecompetenciesandbehaviours
Animportantaspectofsettingupariskcultureistoensureitisrelevanttotheorganisation.Risk
managementisamajorfacetofeffectivecorporategovernance.
Thoseresponsibleforcorporategovernanceneedtohaveknowledgeandunderstandingof:
?strategicplanning
?legalrequirements
?agreementsandcontracts
?communicationtechniquesandinformationmanagement
?staffmatters,includinghowstaffcanbemotivatedandinvolved
?educationopportunitiesandcontinualprofessionaldevelopment
?continuousimprovementand/oranalyticaltechniques
?howtheorganisationismonitoredandevaluated
?resourcemanagement,includingequalopportunitiesanddelegation.
Althoughmanagerstendtoworkinspecificareasoftheorganisation,eitherbasedontechnical
specialismorbusinessfunction,theyallneedtoidentifyandmanagerisk.Todothistheyneedtobe
ableto:
?ensurethatthesituationisproperlyscoped
?identifyandassesstherisk
?createvalidoptionsforreducingrisktoanacceptablelevel
?collectappropriateandmeaningfulinformationtoassessriskandtheoptions,andthento
monitortherisk
?usesoundreasoningwhenmakingatrade-offbetweenthecostsandbenefitsofmanaging
arisk
?makeaclearcommitmenttoaparticularcourseofaction.
Forplanning,themajorareastoconsiderare:
?decidingonthelikelihoodofaspecificeventoccurring
?prioritisingareastoaddress/actionstoinstigate.Thisrequiresunderstandingthe
implicationsoftheoptionsavailable
?assigningownershipofrisksandactions,containmentorcontingent,tobedeployedina
timelymanner
?ensuringthatcontinuityplanscancopewiththecurrentandpotentialfuturesituation,not
withhowthingswereintherecentpast.
Visibleinformationonrisk
Informationonriskanditsmanagementneedstoreachthepeoplewhohavetotakeactionormake
decisions.Thisinformationwillflowdownwardsandupwardsbetweentheorganisationallevels.
Therewillalsobesidewaysflowsacrosseachlevel,betweenprogrammesorprojects.Thevertical
flowsarethemostimportantastheyreflectlevelsofresponsibilityfordecisionmaking.
Forexample,adecisionmaybemadeatthestrategiclevelthataffectstheprogressofcurrent
programmes.Conversely,thecollectiverisksrelatingtotheprogressofcurrentprogrammesmay
haveastrategicimpact.
Theseexamplesillustratewhyrisksshouldbeidentifiedandhandledateachlevelbeforetheyare
passedupordowntothenextlevel.Goodcommunicationmechanismsareessentialtoavoidthe
followingproblems:
?inadequatecommunicationfromlowerlevels,wherepeoplehave'handson'knowledge,to
thelevelwheredecisionsaremade,leadstounrealisticexpectationsfromsenior
management
?inadequatecommunicationfromthetopdowncanmeanthatprojectsarenolonger
supportingthebusinessdirection.
Communications
Toaddresstheseproblemsyouwillneedtoensurethatappropriatecommunicationmechanisms
existandareadopted.Yourorganisationshould:
?ensurethereissufficientcommunicationtokeystakeholders,whetherinternalorexternal,
tosupporttheirneeds
?ensurethatpeopleareaware,informedandunderstandtheirpartinmanagingrisk
?considerwhetherthereisaneedtoimproveinternalcommunications
?considertrainingneedsandhowthesecanbemetadequately
?ensurepeoplehavetherightinformationattherighttimetofulfiltheirresponsibilities(and
howtorecogniseifthisdoesnothappen).
Ensuringthatyourcontrolsareadequate
Theremustbeadequatecontrolmechanismstomeettheneedsofcorporategovernance.Thesewill
bedescribedintheriskpolicyandimplementedthroughtheriskmanagementframework.Specific
controlswillbeintroducedacrosstheorganisationtocopewithcertaincircumstances,suchas
throughtheuseofprogrammeandprojectmanagement.
Onceanappropriatesetofcontrolsisadopted,anindependentauditwillcheckthattheyareinplace,
adequateandinuse.
2.8Budgets
Themanagementofriskprocessmustbeembeddedintheorganisation,ratherthanbeingtacked
onasanafterthought.Th
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