技能英國：推動增長并擴大機遇-Skills England Driving growth and widening opportunities 2024

SkillsEngland:

Drivinggrowthandwidening

opportunities

September2024

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Contents

Tableoffigures3ForewordbytheSecretaryofStateforEducation4ForewordbyRichardPennycook,InterimChairofSkillsEngland6ExecutiveSummary8Introduction11Chapter1:SkillsEnglandwillhelpboostgrowthandspreadopportunity13 Skillsdriveeconomicgrowthandspreadopportunity13 Severalchallengesmustbeovercometocreateahigh-performingskillssystem16 HowSkillsEnglandwilladdressthesechallenges18 Unifiedassessmentsofnationalskillsneeds18 Qualificationsandtrainingdesignedinlinewithskillsneeds19 Localskillssystemswhichmeetskillsneeds,formingacoherentnationalnetwork20 Skillsattheheartofjoined-updecisionmakingacrossgovernment20 Functionswhichsupportandinformoneanother22Chapter2:Skills,Growth,andChallenges24 Adecadeofsluggishgrowth24 Skillschallengesforgrowth28 Localleveldisparitiesandimmobility28 Mismatchedskills29 Futuremegatrends38Chapter3:InitialSkillsAssessment44 Jobsinhighdemand44 Howthesejobsareprojectedtogrowinthefuture48 Skillsneedsinkeysectors49 Digitaltechnologies49 Greenworkforce52 Lifesciences56 HousebuildingandConstruction56Nextsteps60Annex62

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Tableoffigures

Figure1:SkillsEngland’skeyfunctions18

Figure2:SkillsEnglandinterventionsaimoveralltoimproveproductivity,growthandsocialjustice22

Figure3:UKproductivitygrowthhasbeenweaksincetheFinancialCrisis25

Figure4:TheUKworkforcecontainsseveralskillsmismatches.31

Figure5:UKtrainingexpenditurehasreducedfrom2011to2022.35

Figure6:FuturemegatrendswillimpactthefutureoftheUKlabourmarket.39

Figure7:TheOccupationsindemandindexusesanindexofsevenindicators45

Figure8:Employmentvolumesandlevelforoccupationsincriticaldemand46

Figure9:Occupationsincriticalandelevateddemandacrossindustries(SIC)48

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ForewordbytheSecretaryofStateforEducation

Thefirstmissionofthisgovernmentiseconomicgrowth.Centraltothismissionisaskillssystemfitforthefuture.Weneedtoharnessthetalentsofallourpeopletounlockgrowthandbreakdownthebarrierstoopportunity.Eachandeveryyoungpersonandadultin

thecountrymustbeabletolearntheskillstheyneedtoseizeopportunity.Businessesneedahighlyskilledworkforcetodrawoniftheyaretodriveeconomicgrowthand

expandopportunityinourcommunities.

Skillsarevitaltothechangethisgovernmentwantstodeliver.Wewillneedskilled

workerstodeliverourcommitmenttobuild1.5millionnewhomes,tomakeourcountryacleanenergysuperpower,andtoensurewehaveanNHSfitforthefuture.

But,asthisfirstSkillsEnglandreportmakesclear,wefacealonglistofskillschallenges.Wehaveafragmentedandconfusingskillslandscapethatletsdownlearners,frustratesbusinessesandholdsbackgrowth.Whilethecountryishometomanyhighlyskilled

workersandahostofhigh-qualitycollegesanduniversities,therearetoomany

businessesthatcannotrecruitstaffwiththerightskills.Thissorrysituationismadeworsebythedeclineinbusinessesinvestinginthetrainingoftheirownstaff.Andcollegesanduniversitieslackthecertaintytheyneedtoinvestinfutureskillsneeds.

Allthisisplayingoutatatimewhenathrivingskillssystemhasneverbeenmoreimportant.Theneedtomeetourcarbonemissiontargets,theadoptionofnew

technologies,therisksandopportunitiesofAI,alltheseglobaltrendsdemandastrongandinclusiveskillssystem.

Thatiswhywehavelaunchedanewgovernmentbody,SkillsEngland–totransform

opportunitiesanddrivegrowth.ThecreationofSkillsEnglandbringstogetherthe

fracturedskillslandscapeandcreatesasharednationalambitiontoboostthenation’sskills.However,wewillneedthehelpofkeypartnersinthesystemtogrowtheeconomyandachievethisambition.ThisiswhySkillsEnglandwillbringbusinesses,training

partnersandunionstogetherwithnationalandlocalgovernmenttodevelopaclear

assessmentofthecountry’sskillsneed–andmappathwaysbywhichtheycanbefilled.

SkillsEnglandwillworkcloselywiththeIndustrialStrategyCouncil,MigrationAdvisory

CommitteeandacrossGovernment,ensuringthatourmissionsareunderpinnedbythenecessaryskilledworkforce.Itwillsupportthejoinupofnationalandregionalsystemstodeliverbothlocalandnationalpriorities.

SkillsEnglandwillshapethegovernment’sresponsetoskillsneedsbyidentifyingkey

priorities,includingadvisingonthenewGrowthandSkillsLevy.Indoingso,wewill

provideastructuredfeedbacklooptogovernmenttoinformfundingandpolicydecisions.

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Thisreportisakeyfirststepinourlong-termstrategytoreformoureducationsystem.Bysettingoutourvisiontomeetskillsneeds,thereportinvitesmembersacrosstheskills

systemtousekeydatainsightstoinform,challengeandbuildtowardsaresponsiveandcollaborativeskillssystem,aimingtoalignwiththefutureIndustrialStrategy.Itwillensurethatpeoplecanaccessthetrainingtheyneedtogetgreatjobsandprovidethetoolsto

planforabetterfutureforall.

Rt.Hon.BridgetPhillipson

SecretaryofStatefortheDepartmentforEducation

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ForewordbyRichardPennycook,InterimChairofSkillsEngland

WeintendforSkillsEnglandtobethedrivingforcebehindamuch-neededupskillingofoureconomyinthecomingdecades.Wearethesixthlargesteconomyintheworld,andyetourbusinessesandpublicserviceshavebeenlaggardsinproductivityoverthepast30years.

Inthemorerecentpast,theCovidPandemic,BrexitandthewarinUkrainehave

combinedtopresentthreatstobusinessnotexperiencedsincetheendoftheSecond

WorldWar.Similarly,ourpublicservicesfacehugepressuresinmeetingtheneedsofan

agingandmorediversepopulation

Lookingahead,wefacethechallengesofdecarbonisingoureconomyandtakingadvantageoftheopportunitiespresentedbycontinuingtechnologicalandscientificinnovation.

Ifwearetosucceedintheyearsahead,weneedtotransformtheskillslandscape.

Studentsneedtobeguidedtowardswhattheydobestandsupportedtoachievetheir

potential.Employersneedtoknowthattherewillbeapooloftalentabletodeliverthe

opportunitiestheycreate.Providersneedtobecelebratedandrespectedastheenablersofourskills-basedeconomy.

SkillsEnglandhasbeenestablishedtoaccelerateourprogress.Wewill:

?Seektounderstandemployers’skillsrequirementsintheshort,mediumandlongtermandensurethatprovisionwillmeetdemand;

?Workwithprovidersinbothfurthereducationandhighereducationtoclarifyandstrengthenthequalificationslandscapeandfocushardonsuccessfuloutcomesforstudents;

?Workwiththeschoolssystemtoemphasisethatthefoundationofanyskills

developmentissatisfactorylevelsofattainmentinliteracyandnumeracy,andsupportourschoolsintheprovisionofhighqualityadvicetostudentsoncareeropportunitiesandpathways;

?WorkwithemployerstobringtheskillsagendaintotheBoardroom,underthe

sponsorshipofChairsandCEOs,andtoencouragethecelebrationofcontinuousimprovementandskillsdevelopmentintheworkplace;

?Encourageemployerstostep-changetheirinvestmentinskills,partlythroughimprovedflexibilityintheoperationoftheLevyandpartlythroughbetter

cooperativeworkingatsectorlevel;

?Collaborateintensivelywithourcolleaguesacrossgovernmentandintheregions.Ultimately,skillsarenurturedlocallyforlocalemployers.Thecentrecanfacilitateandenablebutmustnotdictate.AndwhilstwearecalledSkillsEngland,theUK’sskillsneedsdonotchangeorstopatCarlisleorChepstow.Wewillworkclosely

withourcolleaguesinthedevolvednationstoensurethatstudentsandemployers(thecustomersofoursystem)haveaseamlessexperiencethroughoutthefour

nations.

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ThisisthefirstreportbySkillsEngland.Itdoesnothingmorethansetthescene.Ihavebeendelightedbytheresponsefromallquarterstoitsestablishmentandhavehigh

hopesthatourambitionscanbefulfilled.

RichardPennycook

InterimChairofSkillsEngland

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ExecutiveSummary

Thegovernment’sfirstmissionistogrowtheeconomyandthatwillonlybepossibleifweharnessthetalentofourpeople,meetbusinesses’skillsneedsandbreakdownthe

barrierstoopportunity.SkillsEnglandwilltransformtheskillssystemtomakeittruly

worldleading.Itwillhelptobuildahigh-skill,high-productivityworkforcethatismatchedtoemployers’needsandensurethateveryone,regardlessoftheirbackground,can

accesstheopportunitiestheyneedtothrive.

Toprovideaninitialfoundationfordevelopingitswidersetoffunctions,togetherwithitspartnersinthesystem,thisreportpresentsSkillsEngland’sfirstassessmentofskills

needsintheeconomy.SkillsEnglandwilltakeforwardfurtherconsultationontheissuesraisedinthisreportovertheautumn.

Summaryofkeyfindings

?TherearesomesignificantskillsbarrierstogrowththatSkillsEnglandaimstoovercome:

oUKemployersreportthatoverathirdofUKvacanciesin2022wereduetoskills-shortages,arelativelybigincreasefromtheperiod2013to2017,

whereskills-shortagevacancies(SSVs)remainedstableataround22%.

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oForemployers,thequalificationslandscapecanbeopaque;skillssupplymaybemismatchedagainstdemand;andthereareinsufficient

mechanismsforencouragingemployerstoinvestinskills.

oForlearners,thepathwaysintoskilledcareersarenotalwayssufficientlyclear,andthecurrentskillssystemandemployerinvestmentinskillsarenotalwaysequippinglearnerswiththeessentialliteracy,numeracyanddigitalskillstheyneedtosucceed.

?Studieshaveconsistentlyhighlightedtheimportanceofskillsforeconomicgrowth,witharoundonethirdofaverageannualUKproductivitygrowthattributabletoanexpansionofskillsavailableintheworkforcebetween2001and2019.

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Additionally,withover300highereducationprovidersoperatingintheUK,thesectorcontributedaround￡265bntotheUKeconomyin2021-22.

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,

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1EmployerSkillsSurvey2022:

Employerskillssurvey:2022-GOV.UK(.uk)

2.uk/media/63f4bee8d3bf7f62eaaf2e75/Skills_and_UK_productivity.pdf

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LE-UUK-Impact-of-university-TL-and-RI-Final-Report.pdf(universitiesuk.ac.uk)

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Theeconomicimpactofhighereducationteaching,research,andinnovation-LondonEconomics

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?Thelabourmarketandtheskillsrequiredtoincreaseproductivityandeconomic

growthvaryconsiderablybyregion.Employmentratesvaryacrossthecountry

andLocalSkillsImprovementPlanshaveindicatedhowspecificsectorskillsareconcentratedindifferentregions.Forexample,onethirdoftheUK’sfinance

industryisbasedinLondonandalargeproportionoftheNuclearindustryisintheNorthWest.

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,

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Furthermore,theproportionofpeoplehighly-qualifiedranges

considerably,with61%ofthoseinLondonqualifiedatlevel4orabove,comparedto38%inCornwalland33%inGreaterLincolnshire.

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?Employerinvestmentintraininghasbeeninsteadydeclineoverthepastdecade.TrainingexpenditureisatitslowestsincetheintroductionoftheEmployerSkillsSurvey(ESS)in2011,withinvestmentperemployeedownby19%inrealterms.

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Moreresearchisneeded,butfromtheavailableevidence,wehypothesisethat

thisfallininvestmenthasbeendrivenbyarangeofdifferentcauses.These

include:employersperceivingthattheirstaffaresufficientlyskilled;nothavingtheresourcestoupskillsstaffbeyondminimumrequirements;alackofaclear

industrialstrategyprovidingafoundationforalinkedskillsstrategy;strong

internationallaboursupplyandflexiblelabourmarket;ashiftinattitudes,shiftingresponsibilityforupskillingfromemployerstogovernment;andlowoverall

businessinvestment.

?AcrosstheUK,almost1in10orover2.5mrolesareincriticaldemand.

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Morethan90%oftheseareinrolesrequiringperiodsofwork-relatedtrainingor

education.

?Demandforoccupations,andassociatedskills,differsacrossindustries.The

healthandsocialcareindustryhasthehighestvolumeofrolesindemand.Otherhighdemandoccupationsincludethoseintheeducation,manufacturing,and

professionalscientificandtechnicalindustries.

?Lookingtothefuture,manyoftheskillsneededinthelabourmarketin2035willbeimpactedbydemographicandtechnologicalshifts,aswellasthetransitiontomoregreenskills.Manyoftheoccupationscurrentlyindemandarealsothose

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StateofthesectorannualreviewofUKfinancialservices2023(.uk)

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Recordgrowthinnuclearworkforcefromnewbuildprojects-NuclearIndustryAssociation()

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department-for-education.shinyapps.io/local-skills-dashboard/

8EmployerSkillsSurvey2022,

.uk/media/65855506fc07f3000d8d46bd/Employer_skills_survey_2022_

research_report.pdf

9SkillsEnglandhasproducedacompositeindexofsevenindicators(calledthe“OccupationsinDemand”index)lookingacrossoccupationstoidentifywhicharecurrentlyseeinghighlevelsofdemand.SeeAnnexAformoreinformation.

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projectedtoseeemploymentgrowthinthefuture,includingthoseinhealth,social

careandlifesciences,greenjobs,AI,creativeindustriesandservice-orientatedroles.Occupationsrequiringhighereducation(suchasbuildingandcivil

engineers)andinterpersonalskills(e.g.youthandcommunityworkers)areexpectedtoseethemostemploymentgrowthby2035.

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?Sectorswillbeaffecteddifferentlybytheseinfluencesonthelabourmarket.Forexample,inconstructionthetransitiontowardsgreenskillswillrequirethe

developmentofnewandupdatedqualificationstomeetenergyefficiencyretrofittargets.Inotherareas,suchashydrogen,existinggreen-skilledworkforceswillneedtogrowsubstantiallytomeetnewdemand.Thereisaneedtohelp

individualsandbusinessestogainnewskillsetswhilealsoexpandingtheworkforcetomeetincreasingskillsdemands.

?Whilstrapidlychangingtechnologiescancreateuncertaintyaroundupskillingandreskillingneeds,weknowthatanorganisation'sabilitytoadoptanddeploynew

technologiesdirectlyaffectstheirabilitytogrowandinnovate.Technology

developmentsinareassuchasAIwillincreasethedemandforskillstoharnessthesenewtechnologiesinmanysectors,whileinothers(forinstance,Cyber

Security)suchdevelopmentsmaychangethefocusofrolesandleadtothedevelopmentofnewspecialisms.

Followingpublicationofthisreport,SkillsEnglandwillbuildonitsearlyengagementwithawiderangeofstakeholdersbyconductingaseriesofroundtablesandwebinarsintheautumntofurthertestandrefinetheinitialassessmentofskillsneeds(includinginkeysectors),andprovideopportunitiestohelpshapedecisionsonhowitwillexecuteits

functions.

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Itwillundertakeandsharefurtheranalysis,includingthedeliveryofa

standardisedskillstaxonomyfortheUKandmappingoccupationsontoeducation

pathwaystounderstandthemostcommonroutesintopriorityprofessions.Itwillalso

consultemployersandotherkeyorganisationstoprovideinitialviewsonwhathigh-valuetrainingshouldbeaccessiblethroughtheGrowthandSkillsLevy.

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Labourmarketandskillsprojections:2020to2035-GOV.UK(.uk)

11Thisreportoutlineskeyemergingtrendsinfoursectorswherethereisstrongevidenceofeconomic

importanceandavailableforecasts:digitaltechnologies,lifesciences,green,andhousebuilding.This

providesanillustrationofhowSkillsEnglandwillapproachsectorassessments.Futureskillsassessmentswillfocusonsectorsidentifiedwithsignificantskillsneeds,includingthoseidentifiedbytheIndustrial

StrategyCouncilandwiderGovernmentpriorities.

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Introduction

ThePrimeMinisterandSecretaryofStateforEducationannouncedtheestablishmentofSkillsEnglandon22July2024,launchingitinshadowformwithimmediateeffect.

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SkillsEnglandwill:

?Provideanauthoritativeassessmentofnationalandregionalskillsneedsintheeconomynowandinthefuture,combiningthebestavailablestatisticaldatawithinsightsgeneratedfromemployersandotherkeystakeholders.

?Ensurethatthereisacomprehensivesuiteofapprenticeships,trainingand

technicalqualificationsforindividualsandemployerstoaccess,andwhicharealignedwithskillsgapsandwhatemployersneed.Aspartofthis,itwillplayacrucialroleinidentifyingwhichtrainingshouldbeavailableviathenewGrowthandSkillsLevy.

?WorktogetherwithCombinedAuthorities

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andregionalorganisations(suchasemployerrepresentativebodies)toensurethatregionalandnationalskillsneedsaremet(atalllevels–fromessentialskillstothosedeliveredviahigher

education),inlinewiththeforthcomingIndustrialStrategy.

Crucially,SkillsEnglandwillensurethatskillssitattheheartofjoined-updecision

makingacrossgovernmentandbringHEandFEsystemsclosertogether.Itwillwork

closelywiththeIndustrialStrategyCouncilsothatwehavetheskilledworkforceneededtodeliveraclear,long-termplanforthefutureeconomyandtheMigrationAdvisory

Committeetoensurethatgrowingthedomesticskillspipelinereducesourrelianceonoverseasworkers.Othercriticallinkswillincludecloseworkwiththedevolved

administrationstoboostgrowthandspreadopportunityUK-wide;theDepartmentfor

EnergySecurityandNetZero(DESNZ)whichhassetuptheOfficeforCleanEnergyJobstomeetourCleanEnergySuperpowerMission;theDepartmentforWorkon

Pensionsonthegovernment’splantoGetBritainWorking;andwiththeDepartmentforScience,InnovationandTechnologyonpriorityscienceandtechnologysectors.

Itisbybringingthesefunctionstogetherwithinasingleorganisation,withasingle

feedbackloopbackintogovernmenttohelpinformfundingandpolicydecisions,thatSkillsEnglandwillbeabletoaffectchange.

ThisreportsetsoutinmoredetailhowskillscandriveUKgrowth,thechallengesinthesystemthatSkillsEnglandisbeingdesignedtoaddress,andthefunctionsitwillperform

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SkillsEnglandtotransformopportunitiesanddrivegrowth-GOV.UK(.uk)

13AswellasequivalentauthoritiesinplaceswhichhavedevolutiondealsbutwherenoCombinedAuthorityispresent.

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tomeetthosechallenges(chapterone).ItprovidesmorecontextforthecreationofSkills

EnglandbydescribingtheeconomicandskillslandscapethatSkillsEnglandis

navigatingandtheskillschallengesthatcanlimitgrowth(chaptertwo).ItalsoprovidesSkillsEngland’sinitialassessmentoftheUK’sskillsneeds,outliningcurrentjobsin

demand,projectinghowthesejobswillgrowandlookingindetailatfourkeyareas

anticipatedtobeimpactedbyfuturemegatrends(chapterthree).Thereportconcludeswithadescriptionofthestepsthatwillfollowitspublication.

Thisisthefirststepinwhatwillbeanongoing,iterativeprocesstowardsdevelopinganauthoritativeassessmentofskillsneedsintheeconomy,involvingclosecollaboration

withawiderangeofstakeholdersoverthecomingmonths.Itisintendedtoprovidea

springboardforSkillsEnglandtoleadfurtherdialoguebetweenemployers,unions,

providers,experts,regionalbodiesandgovernmenttointerrogate,corroborateandbuildoutoursharedunderstandingofwhatskillstheeconomyneeds.Thiswill,inturn,providethestrongfoundationonwhichSkillsEnglandcandevelopanddeliveritswidersetof

functionstohelptransformtheskillssystem,helpingtoboostgrowthandspreadopportunityinsupportofthegovernment’sfivemissions.

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Chapter1:SkillsEnglandwillhelpboostgrowthandspreadopportunity

Thischaptersetsouthowskillsdriveeconomicgrowthandspreadopportunity,beforedescribingseveralchallengesthatarepreventingtheskillssystemfromrealisingitsabilitytodriveprogressacrosstheGovernment’sfivemissions.Itconcludesby

explaininghowSkillsEnglandwilladdressthesechallenges,bringingtogetherkeyfunctionstomaximiseconnectionsanddelivertangiblebenefitsforbusinessesandindividuals.

Skillsdriveeconomicgrowthandspreadopportunity

Studieshaveconsistentlyhighlightedtheimportanceofskillstoeconomicgrowth,witharoundonethirdofaverageannualUKproductivitygrowthbetween2001and2019

attributabletoanexpansionofskillsavailableintheworkforce.

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Trainingandeducationbuildskills,whichinturncontributetogrowthandproductivityby:

?Ensuringthatemployeesperformtheirjobsmoreefficientlyandeffectively.Knowledgeandnewcapabilitiescansupportsmarterwaysofworking.Theyalsopromoteinnovation:firmsthataremoreskilledaremoreinnovative.

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?Supportingbusinessestoreapthebenefitsofinvestmentinnewtechnologyandcapital.Asbusinessesinvesttobecomemoreautomatedandcapitally

intensetoincreasetheirproductivity,theyneedmoreskilledworkerstousethisnewtechnology.

?Addressingshortagesinsectorsandregionswhereskillsgapsarelimitinggrowth.Althoughthesizeoftheimpactvaries,increasesinskilllevelshavebeenshowntocontributetoproductivitygrowthinallsectorsandregions.

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Citieswithahighshareoftheiremploymentinhigh-skilloccupations,suchasLeamingtonSpaandReading,experiencedthefastestemploymentandproductivitygrowthin

recentdecades.

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Strategiceducationandtrainingchoicescanunblock

productivitystickingpointsandsupportgrowth,especiallyinthesectorsandregionswhereshortagesareaclearissue.

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4.uk/media/63f4bee8d3bf7f62eaaf2e75/Skills_and_UK_productivity.pd

f

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WorkforceSkillsandInnovation:AnOverviewofMajorThemesintheLiterature|OECDScience,

TechnologyandIndustryWorkingPapers|OECDiLibrary()

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SkillsandUKproductivityresearchreport(.uk)

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7/sites/default/files/attachments/UK%20Regional%20Productivity%20Di

fferences%20-%20An%20Evidence%20Review_1.pdf

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?Supportingtransitionsbetweenjobsandbackintowork.Increasingthesizeoftheactiveworkforcemakesiteasierforemployerstorecruitindividualswiththerightskills.

?AttractingforeigndirectinvestmentintotheUK.Inturn,thiscanboost

economicgrowthandreduceregionalinequalities.

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,

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Skilledworkersenhanceproductivityandinnovation,makingtheUKanattractivedestinationforforeigninvestors.Thisinfluxofinvestmentnotonlycreatesjobs,butalsostimulates

technologicaladvancementandknowledgetransfer,furtherdrivingeconomicdevelopment.

Skillscanalsoimproveindividualoutcomes,whichinturncontributetoenhancedgrowthandimprovedwellbeingasmeasurednationally.Thishappensthrough:

?Increasingindividuals’earnings,leadingtoincreasedspendingandimprovedhealthandwellbeingoutcomesforindividuals,aswellasincreasedtaxrevenue,whichallowsforincreasedinvestmentinpublicservices.

oInfurthereducation(FE),individualswhocompletealevel2qualificationorlevel3qualificationreceiveawagepremiumof9%or16%respectively,3-5yearsaftercompletion.

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oForthosecompletingapprenticeships,individualsreceivewagepremiumsofbetween12%forlevel2apprenticeshipsand22%forlevel4/5

apprenticeships,3-5yearsaftercompletion.

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oGraduatesreceiveanearningspremiumof,onaverage,over￡100kovertheirlifetimecomparedtonon-graduates(althoughthiscanvary

significantlybysubject