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NowinRetail
2024U.S.HolidayPurchaseIntentions
KeyFindings
October2024
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
2
Tableofcontents
2024HolidayPurchaseIntentions
HolidayRetailOutlookbyMarshalCohen3
WhatConsumerSpendingWillLookLike6
ShoppingPlans10
InfluencersandPerceptions14
AbouttheStudy21
?ObjectivesandMethodology
?Notes
?Definitions
3
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
HolidayRetail
OutlookbyMarshalCohen
ChiefRetailAdvisor
4
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Circana’sHolidayRetailOutlookByMarshalCohen
U.S.consumerintentionsforthe2024holidayseasonarebasedonablendofoptimismandpracticality.
Consumersentimentandintentionsrelatedtothe2024holidayshoppingseasonareimprovedcomparedtothelasttwoyears.
Mostshoppersplantospendaboutthesameaslastyear,butthereisanincreaseinthoseplanningtospendmore.Theaverageplannedholidayspendis2%higherthanlastyear.
Thekeyholidaydriversofclothing,technology,andtoyshaverenewed
opportunityforholidaysalesgrowth,withincreaseintheintenttopurchasebeauty,footwear,andluggage.
Planstogiveexperientialgiftslikefoodandbeverageexperiences,ticketstoanevent,oraspacertificatearehigherthanthey’vebeeninthreeyears.
Moreconsumersareplanningholidaygatheringswithfamilyandfriendsthisyear,andfewerpeopleplantohavetheirholidaymealsattheirownhome.
Aparticularlypositivesignforholidayretailisthatmoreconsumersplantoself-giftthanplannedtolastyear,thoughstillfewerthanplannedtotwoyearsago.
Consumersstillplantodomoreoftheirholidayshoppingonline,butmoreplantodosomeshoppinginstoresthaninthepastfewyears.
Financialconcerns—thoughtoalesserdegree—andotherdistractionsremain,keepingexpectationsbelow2021levels.
Amidalandscapeoffickletrendsthatdissipateasquicklyastheyappear,consumersaren’tinarushtopurchase.Theyarewillingtowaitforsales,evidencedbytheincreaseinthosewhoplantostartshoppingoverthe
Thanksgiving/BlackFriday/CyberWeekpromotionalperiod.
Convenienceandvalueareparamount.Mostconsumersprefertobuyasmany
giftsastheycanonline,andtheycomparepricesonlinebeforeshoppinginastore.
Whilevalueloomslarge,freeshippingremainsthetopinfluencerofwhere
consumerswillshopthisholidayseason,asminimumshippingthresholdsrise.
Socialmediaplaysanimportantroleinholidayshopping:76%ofholidayshopperssayproductreviewvideosarelikelytoinfluencetheirpurchases.
Foodandgrocerycostswillhaveanimpactonholidayshopping,butconsumersareadjusting.Two-thirdsofconsumerssaytheywillchangetheirshoppinghabitsinordertosavemoneythisholidayseason.
Holiday
Projections:
2024holidayspendingisexpectedtobeanimprovementfromlastyear’sresults,growingbetween1.5%and3%duringtheexpandedholidayshoppingperiodthatnowbeginsinOctoberandruns
throughearlyJanuary.
5
Circana’sHoliday
RetailOutlookByMarshalCohen
“Spiritsareupheadingintothefourthquarter,andconsumersarelookingtoholdontothatfeelingofpositivity.”
Asenseofretailstabilityhasbeenestablishedaheadofthisholidayseason
U.S.retailsalestrends,includingdiscretionarygeneralmerchandiseandconsumerpackagedgoods(CPG),havecontinuedtostabilizethisyear.Discretionaryspendingremainsatthenewspending
baselineestablishedin2023,andretailfoodandbeveragespendingincreaseshavesoftened.
Consumersareseekingaholidayescape—thatincludessomeretailtherapy
Thisyear,moreconsumersseetheholidaysasabreakfromeverythingthat’shappeningintheworld,andmoreplantobuymoregiftsforotherstobringthemjoyduringchallengingtimes.Addontheincreaseinplansforself-gifting,andyougetapictureofaconsumerprimedforholidayshoppingasanevent.
Theconsumer’squestforvalueisanopportunityforretailtoengage
Morethanhalfofholidayshopperssaytheywillspendlessthisholidayseasonbecauseother
costs/expenseshavegoneup.Manyholidayshopperssaytheywillbuymoreitemsthatareonsaleorpromotion.Moreconsumersdidsomeoftheirholidayshoppingduringthisyear’ssummerretail
promotionalevents,andmoreplannedtotakeadvantageoffallpromotionaleventsthanineitherofthepasttwoyears.Butnearlyaquarter(24%)saytheythinktheywillgetthebestdealsonBlackFridaythisholidayshoppingseason—thehighestinfouryears.
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
“Theholidayretailseasonhastakenonthenextgenerationofshopping.Consumersarenotastetheredtotheuncertaintyofthelastseveralyears,andtheyfinallyfeelstableenoughtoembraceholidayshoppingagain.”
MarshalCohen
ChiefRetailAdvisor,Circana
Source:Circana,point-of-salefirst-readdata,limitedrelease
6
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
What
Consumer
Spending
WillLookLike
Howmuchwilltheyspend?Whatwilltheybuy?
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
7
Intendedspendingisup2%,withmostplanningto
spendthesameaslastyear
2023$754
2024$771
PlantoSpendonHolidayShopping
(Meanamongtotalrespondents)
2022$760
HolidaySpendingIntentions
%AmongTotalRespondents
2022
2023
2024
MorethanlastyearSameaslastyearLessthanlastyear
57
58
57
25
26
24
18
18
18
MillennialshaveleaptaheadofGenX,planningtospendthemost($880).
Thosewithchildrenarealsobigspenderscomparedtothosewithoutkids($1014vs$651).
Q1.Howmuchdoyouplantospendonholidayshoppingthisyear? Q2.Comparedtolastyear,doyouplantospend…?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
8
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Purchaseintentisverysteady,butwithincreased
spendinginsomekeyholidaycategories
%AmongTotalRespondents
1
Clothing/Accessories:56%
2
Tech/Electronics:35%
3
Entertainment:29%
4
Beauty:29%
5
Toys/Baby:29%
6
Home:27%
7
FoodorBeverages:22%
8
Liquor/Wine:19%
9
SportingGoods/SportEquipment:10%
TopTypesofPlannedPhysicalGifts
MeanSpend($)AmongPlannedPurchasers
1
Tech/Electronics:$910
2
Clothing/Accessories:$476
3
Home:$348
4
Entertainment:$211
5
Toys/Baby:$206
6
Beauty:$173
7
FoodorBeverages:$167
8
SportingGoods/SportEquipment:$164
9
Liquor/Wine:$143
Clothing41%
Q5.Whichoftheseproductsdoyouplantobuyasholidaygiftsthisyear?Q6.Howmuchdoyouplantospendon...?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Experiencescontinuetobepopularforgiving
Food&beverageisthemostpopulartypeofexperienceatmorethan1.5timestheintendedgivingfortickets
Experiences/Intangibles
27
25
25
21
16+2pts15+3pts
14+3pts13
11
9
%AmongThoseWhoPlantoPurchaseanExperience/IntangibleGift
44
Food/Beverageexperiences
Ticketstoasportingevent,concertorothermusicevent,ortheater/play/musical SpacertificateCharitabledonationsTravel
InteractiveexperienceswheretheattendeesbecomepartoftheeventAdventureexperiences
Educational/Enrichmentexperiences
Tours Membershiptogym/fitnessclassesCertificatestoexperience-dedicatedwebsites
55%ofconsumersplantopurchaseanexperience/intangiblegift,up2ptsfromlastyear.
Meanwhile,subscriptionservicesreboundedslightly:16%plantogivethem,2ptsmorethanlastyear,thoughstilldown
comparedtotwoyearsago.
9
Q27.Which,ifany,experiencesorintangiblegiftsdoyouplantopurchasethisholidayseason?Q28.Thisholidayseason,doyouplantopurchaseasubscriptionboxorserviceasagiftforsomeoneelse(oryourself)?
Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
10
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
ShoppingPlans
When,how,andwherewillconsumersdotheirholidayshoppingthisyear?
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Consumersaremorelikelytostartshoppingearly,
butsincethepandemic,waitinghasincreased
PlantoSTARTShopping
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%AmongTotalRespondentsProvidingaResponse
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Early
BeforeThanksgiving
Mid
ThanksgivingDay/BlackFriday/
Thanksgivingweekend/CyberMonday
Late
EarlyDecember/lastminute
11
Q12.Whenwillyoubeginyourholidayshopping?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Thanksgivingweekendismorepopularforstarting
holidayshopping,up3ptsthisyear
45%ofconsumerswillstartshoppingbeforeThanksgiving
ButsomehaveshiftedtheirshoppingtotheThanksgivingholidayweekend(+3pts)
17%havealreadystarted
3%alreadyfinished
25%plantostartbeforeThanksgiving
5%willstarton
20%plantostartonBlackFriday
ThanksgivingDay
7%willstartover
3%willstart
onCyberMonday
Thanksgivingweekend
16%don’tplantostartuntil
5%willwaituntilthe
lastminute
earlyDecember
WhenWillEarlyShoppersStart?
%AmongConsumersPlanningtoStartShoppingBeforeThanksgiving
Septemberorearlier
October
Early
November
Weekof
Thanksgiving
37%33%(+6)24%(-7)4%
BlackFridaycontinuestogrowinimportance.24%ofconsumersstatedthisisthedaytheycanfindthebestdealsforholidayshopping.
12
Q12.Whenwillyoubeginyourholidayshopping?
Q12a.Specifically,whenbeforeThanksgivingdidyou/willyoubeginyourholidayshopping?Q12.dDuringwhichofthefollowingtimeperiodsdoyoufeelyouwillgetthebestdealspossible?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Onlinegrowsinimportancetoconsumers
PlantoShopOnlineforHoliday
%AmongTotalRespondents
85
80
73
66
59
7776
8283
80
71
20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
ShareofPlannedShopping:In-Storevs.Online
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%AmongTotalRespondents
Online
In-Store
20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
13
Q8a.Doyouplantodoanyofyourholidayshoppingonlinethisyear?
Q9b.Approximatelywhatpercentofyourholidayshoppingdoyouplantodo…?
Q9c.Whichtypeofdevicedoyouusemostoftenwhendoingyourholidayshoppingonline?Q10.Whichofthefollowingstatements,ifany,describeYOUwhenholidayshopping?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
14
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
InfluencersandPerceptions
Dotheeconomyandtoday’spoliticalenvironmentaffectconsumers?
Whatroledoessocialmediaplayinshoppingbehavior?
Areconsumersgettingintotheholidayspirit?
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Consumers’perceptionoftheeconomyhas
improvedslightly,buttheimpactisunchanged
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
StateoftheEconomy
%AmongTotalRespondents
Excellent/VeryGoodGoodFair/Poor
30
18
21
15
17
19
64
65
19
18
57
56
37
30
22
61
15
17
PersonalFinancialSituation
%AmongTotalRespondents
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Excellent/VeryGoodGoodFair/Poor
30
28
28
28
28
28
32
34
35
35
36
36
43
42
28
29
40
30
51
41
43
40
42
42
31
29
30
29
28
28
23
34
26
23
30
29
HowWillThisImpactSpending?
%AmongTotalRespondents
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
SpendMoreSpendtheSameSpendLess
15
Q11c.Basedonwherethingsaretoday,howwouldyouratethefollowing?Q11d.Thinkingaboutyourfinancialsituationandtheeconomy,whatimpactwilltheyhaveonyourspendingthisholidayseason?
Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
16
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Theelectionandrisingfoodcostscouldaffectholiday
shopping,especiallyamongGenZandmillennials
ImpactofElectiononHolidayPurchasing
%AmongTotalRespondents
nYes,theelectionwillimpactmyholidaypurchasing
No,theelectionwillnotimpactmyholidaypurchasing
17%
Willspendmore/lessdependingwhoiselected
32
GenZ=44%
Millennials=43%
16%
Willwaittostart
shoppinguntilafter
theelection
68
ImpactofFood/GroceryCostsonHolidayPurchasing
%AmongTotalRespondents
GenZ=73%
Millennials=73%
62
38
21
25
22
Willhaveanimpact(NET)
Buythesame
amountofgifts
butspendless
oneachone
BuylessgiftsBuymore'offNoimpact
overallbrand'items
T8Willtheupcomingelectionimpactyourpurchasedecisionsfortheholidayseason?T10.Thinkingaboutyourhousehold’sfood/grocerycoststhisyear,howwillthosecostsaffectyourholidayshopping?
Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
17
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Tosavemoney,twointhreeconsumerswillfind
waystotradedownthisholidayseason
PlanstoSaveMoneyThisHolidaySeason
%AmongTotalRespondents
Willchangehabits(NET) Iwillbuymoreitemsthatareonsale/promotionIwillpurchasemorestorebrandsthannamebrands
IwillsubstitutelessexpensiveproductsforthoseItypicallybuyIwillbuymorebundled/valuepackitemstogetabetterdealIwillpurchasesmallerpackagesizes/smallersizedproductsIdonotplanonchangingmyshoppinghabits
67
37
22
22
19
16
33
T11:Whichofthefollowingbehaviors,ifany,doyouplanondoinginordertosavemoneythisholidayseasons?
Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Attitudesandperceptionsimpactbehavior
Consumersseekeconomicreliefthisseason,buttheyarealsolookingforwardtothejoytheholidaysbring.
64%
ofconsumerslookforwardtotheholidayseason.4ptshigherthanlastyearandhighestinfiveyears
29%
ofconsumersdidn’tmakeapurchasethis
yearinhopestheywouldgetitasagiftorfinditonpromotionduringtheholiday.3pts
higherthanlastyear
66%
ofconsumerssaytheholidaysprovideabreakfromeverythinggoingoninthe
world.2ptshigherthanlastyear
28%
ofconsumersbuygiftsforthemselvesasakindofretailtherapy.3ptshigherthan
lastyear
52%
ofconsumerssaytheywillspendlessthisholidayseasonbecauseotherexpenses
havegoneup.3ptshigherthanlastyear
57%
ofconsumerssaygoingshoppingputs
themintheholidayspirit.4ptshigherthanlastyear
18
Q11.Whichofthefollowing,ifany,willinfluencewhereyoushopthisyearforholidaygifts?Q21.Howmuchdoyouagreeordisagreewiththefollowingstatements?QC1Pleasereadthestatementsthatfollowandtellushowmuchyouagreewitheach.Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Facebookreboundstobecomemorerelevantin
PlatformsPlantoUse
%AmongThosePlanningtoUseSocialMediaforPre-purchaseResearch
DOESWHOORWHATYOUFOLLOWMATTER?
Socialmedia’sinfluenceon
purchasebehavioratthe
holidaysissignificant.28%ofconsumerssaytheyfollow
brandsonsocialmedia.
Amongthosefollowers,threeinfourarelikelytomakea
purchasebecauseofthat.Thisisgreaterthantheinfluenceofretailers(66%)andproduct
reviews(66%).
Interestingly,only45%ofthosewhofollowa
celebritysaytheywouldbeinfluencedtomakeapurchase,comparedto57%ofthosewhofollowbloggers/influencers.
holidayshopping,drivenbyyoungergenerations
YouTubeFacebookInstagram TikTokPinterest
X(formerlyTwitter) RedditSnapchatLinkedIn
5649(+3)
27
27
21%
ofconsumerswill
24
21
usesocialmediaforpre-purchaseresearch thisholidayseason,
11
up1ptfromlastyear
66
65(+6)
19
Q11aa.Whichofthefollowingsocialmediaplatformsdoyouplantousetolearnmoreaboutaproductbeforeyoumakeapurchasethisholiday?Q11a1.Whichofthefollowingdescribeshowyoucurrentlyusesocialmediatolearnmoreaboutproducts?
Q11a2.Thisholidayseason,howlikelyareyoutomakeapurchase,ordecideagainstapurchase,basedonrecommendationsand/orreviewsfromeachofthefollowing?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
19
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Mostconsumerswillhostorvisitothers
Intendedpurchasingofholiday-themeditemshasincreasedcomparedtolastyear.
PlannedSpendingComparedtoLastYear
%AmongThoseWhoPlantoBuy
SpendmoreSpendsameSpendless
25
34
61
54
14
32
55
13
12
HolidaythemedtablewareHolidaythemedHolidaythemedfoodor
itemsdecorationsbeverageitems
Plantobuy
68%72%83%
+4pts+2pts
58%ofconsumersplantoeattheirChristmasmealathome,down2ptsfromlastyear.
57%ofconsumerssaytheyplantohostorvisitfamily/friendsduringtheholidayseason,up2ptsfromlastyear.
39%ofconsumersplantohaveanovernightstayawayfromhomeovertheholidays,up2ptsfromlastyear.
20
Q.T7Thinkingaboutproductsthatyoumaybuyforentertainingduringtheholidays,doyouplantospendmoreorlessontheseitemscomparedtolastyear?Q.17Wherewillyoueatyourholidaymeal(s)?Q18.Doyouplantotravelsomewhererequiringanovernightstayduringtheholidayseason?QC6.Howlikelyareyoutovisitorhostfamily/friendsthisholidayseason?
Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024
21
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
AbouttheStudy
ObjectivesandMethodology
Notes
Definitions
Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse
Studyobjectivesandmethodology
Objectives
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