ibm -直觀的供應(yīng)鏈 The intuitive supply chain Predict disruption,deliver growth 2024

IBMInstituteforBusinessValue|ResearchBrief

Theintuitivesupplychain

Predictdisruption,delivergrowth

aws

Keytakeaways

GenerativeAIcanpreemptsupplychaindisruptionandunleash

growthopportunities.

GenerativeAIhasputsupplychainsinflux.64%ofChiefSupplyChainOfficerssaygenAIiscompletelytransformingworkflows.

Supplychainteamsmustworkdifferently.60%ofoperationsandautomationexecutivessayAIassistantswillhandlemosttraditionalandtransactionalprocessesby2025.

Moredecisionswillbeautomated.Operationsandautomation

executivessaygenerativeAIwillincreasethevolumeofdecision-makingbydigitalassistantsby21%inthenexttwoyears.

Predictionswillimprove,ignitingsustainableinnovation.76%of

supplychainandoperationsleaderssaygenAIwillhelpinnovatetheirproductdesignandmakeproductlifecyclesmoresustainable.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth2

Introduction

Makeagilityyoursupply

chainsuperpower

Wouldapeekatnextweek’sheadlineschangeyoursupplychainstrategytoday?

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth3

Supplychaincertaintyisanelusivetarget.Withsomanyfaultlinesstretchingacrossthebusinesslandscape,itseems

impossibletoaccuratelypredictwhatwillhappentomorrow.Supplychainleaders

mustoftenadoptasiegementality,lookingforwaystolimittheirlossesasplanB

quicklygiveswaytoplansC,D,andE.

Butwhatifyoucouldspendthistime

spurringgrowth?Whatifyoucouldpredictthefutureaccuratelyenoughtogiveyourbusinessacompetitiveedge?

ThecombinedpowerofgenerativeAIandcloudcomputingcouldmakethatpossible.

Byharnessingthepotentialofmachinelearning,automation,andadvanced

analyticsinahybridcloudenvironment,organizationscangainasixthsense,

anticipatingeverythingfromdemand

fluctuationstosourcingdelays.Withthisforesight,theycanreinventtheirsupplychainstrategies,shiftingfromareactivetoaproactivestance.

LeadersingenAIadoptionanddata-led

innovation—thosewhoviewgenAIcapabilitiesastheprimarydriveroftheirautomation

investments—arereapingoutsizedrewards.

17%

reporthigherannualrevenuegrowththanthecompetition

72%

reportgreaterannualnetpro?ts

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth4

Already,leadersingenAIadoptionand

data-ledinnovation—thosewhoviewgenAIcapabilitiesastheprimarydriveroftheir

automationinvestments—arereaping

outsizedrewards.Theyreport72%greaterannualnetprofitsand17%higherannual

revenuegrowththanthecompetition.AndallthesupplychainleaderswesurveyedexpecttheirrevenuegrowthfromAI-enabled

operationstomorethandoubleoverthenextthreeyears.1

Lookingatthesenumbers,it’snosurprisethat72%ofthetop-performingCEOswesurveyedfortheIBMInstituteforBusinessValue(IBM

IBV)2024CEOStudysaycompetitive

advantagenowdependsonwhohasthemostadvancedgenAI.Butthehigh-speedracetomeetshort-termgoalsishinderingtheir

progress.Overall,globalCEOsagreethatafocusonshort-termperformanceistheirtopbarriertoinnovation—and66%saytheir

organizationiscurrentlymeetingshort-termtargetsbyreallocatingresourcesfrom

longer-termefforts.2

That’sabigproblemforsupplychain

leaders,whoknowtheyneedtoinvestinnext-gentechtodaytomaketheir

operationsmoreagileandresilientforanuncertainfuture—fromdynamicallyreroutingshipmentsandadjusting

productionschedulesinrealtimeto

identifyingbottlenecksandrisksbeforetheymaterialize.

HowcangenAIsolvethesepersistent

supplychainproblems?Tofindout,theIBMIBV,inpartnershipwithOxfordEconomics,surveyedmorethan2,000globalChief

SupplyChainOfficers(CSCOs),operations

executives,andautomationexecutivesfromorganizationsthatarecurrently

implementingAI-enabledautomation.Wediscoveredthattheseleadersarefocusedoncreatingwhatwecall“the

intuitivesupplychain”—agile,adaptive,andperpetuallyprepared,safeguardingbrandreputation,customersatisfaction,andthebottomline.

Inthispaper,we’lllayoutthesteps

organizationsaretakingtogetthere.Inpartone,we’llexploretheroleofAIassistants,

whicharequicklybecominglesslikechatbotsandmorelikefull-time

employees.Parttwoexplainshow

acceleratingsupplychainintelligencecanhelpcompaniesleveragereal-timedata

fasterandmoreeffectivelythanever

before.Andinpartthree,we’llexplorehowgenAI-enableddigitaltwins,orvirtual

models,canhelporganizationsimprove

theirpositioninthecompetitivelandscape,aswellasintheeyesofcustomers.We

concludewithanactionguidethatoutlineshowtoplan,prioritize,andperformto

makeeverymovecount.

Supplychainleadersneedtoinvestin

next-gentechtodaytomaketheiroperationsagileandresilientforanuncertainfuture.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth5

Partone

Leanintothepowerofdecisionsupport

EmployeespairedwithAIassistantswilldelivermorebusinessvaluethaneithercouldalone.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth6

Today’ssupplychainteamsaredrowninginaseaofdisconnecteddata.Theyincreasinglyhaveaccesstothelong-awaitedreal-timeinformationtheyneedtomakesmarter,faster,decisions—butthere’ssomuchtosiftthroughthatmanyopportunitiesgounnoticeduntilit’stoolate.

toaskfortheinformationtheyneed—andfindoutwhereitcamefrom—withafewsimpleprompts.

GenAI-powereddigitalassistantsarechangingallthat.Withtheir

abilitytoanalyzevaststoresofdataalmostinstantaneously,theycanbubbleupcriticalinsightsforsupplychainteamstoskimfromthe

surface.Plus,theirnaturallanguageskillsmakeiteasyforemployees

Forexample,AIassistantscananalyzewhichsupplieriscontributing

themosttodelaysandidentifyissuescausingdisruption,suchas

weather,financialobstacles,ortransportationbottlenecks.Then,

AI-fueledpredictivemodelscanoutlinehowthesituationismostlikelytoevolve,allowingAIassistantstooffertargetedrecommendations

thathelpsupplychainteamsprepareforwhat’snext.

Already,60%ofexecutivessayAIassistantswillhandlemost

60%

traditionalandtransactionalprocessesby2025.3And90%saytheirorganization’ssupplychainworkflowswillincorporateintelligent

automationandAIassistantsby2026.4

ofexecutivessayAIassistants

willhandlemosttraditionaland

transactionalprocessesby2025.

And

90%

saytheirorganization’ssupplychain

workflowswillincorporateintelligentautomationandAIassistantsby2026.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth7

WhenemployeesusegenAIassistantstoquicklyquerytheirsupplychainplatformforcredibledata,ratherthanmanually

searchingmultiplesystems,theycan

managechangefaster—andpivotmore

precisely.Insteadofusingthededicatedprocurementsolutiontochangepurchaseorderdeliverydates,forinstance,

employeescansimplyasktheirassistanttomakethechangeforthem.

Butthat’sonlythebeginning.SupplychainteamsaidedbyAIassistantsarecultivatinganewhuman-technologydynamicthatwilltouchvirtuallyeverypointofthesupply

chain,fromplanningtosourcingto

manufacturingtodistribution.Infact,

64%ofCSCOssaygenAIiscompletely

transformingtheirsupplychainworkflows.AndCSCOsandautomationexecutivessaygenAIwillincreasethevolumeofdecision-makingbydigitalassistantsby21%inthenexttwoyears.

It’snotjustaboutexplaininghowmaterialswillgetfrompointAtopointB.It’salso

measuringthesupplychaincostofevery

businessdecision—andmakingsurethosecostsareconsideredfromthestart.BeyondthesalesanewSKUwilldrive,product

developmentstrategiesshouldaccountforthetotalcostofownership,forecastingthecostofdeliveringanewiteminconjunctionwiththelossesthatcomefromholdingontoproductsthatdon’tsell.

Thenthere’sthesustainabilitydimension.Asbothconsumersandregulatorsdemand

morecomprehensivereportingon

environmentalimpact,supplychainleadersmustbeabletotracksustainabilitymetricsallthewaytothelastmile—anddothehardworkofdesigningmoreeco-friendlyproductlifecycles.Thisisanotherplacewheregen

AIcanhelp,with76%ofsupplychainandoperationsleadersagreeingthatitwillhelpinnovatetheirproductdesignandmake

productlifecyclesmoresustainable.

ByleveragingAIassistants,CSCOscan

aggregateanddistillintel,bringinginsighttotheboardroomquicklyandconfidentlyandmakingsuresupplychainimplicationscontinuetoinformstrategiesasthey

evolve.Asdecisionsaremadeandthentestedinthemarket,AIassistantscanacceleratethefeedbackloop,giving

executivesthereal-word,real-timedata

theyneedtoseeiftheirstrategiesare

deliveringthedesiredresults—andchangetacticsquicklyiftheyaren’t.

WithgenAIassistants,employeescanmanagechangefaster—andpivotmoreprecisely.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth8

Casestudy

BuildinganintelligentsupplychainusingasupplychainAIassistant

IBMemployssupplychainstaffin40

countriesandmakeshundredsofthousandsofcustomerdeliveriesandservicecallsin

over170nations.IBMalsocollaborateswithhundredsofsuppliersacrossitsmultitieredglobalnetworktobuildhighlyconfigurableandcustomizedproductstocustomer

specifications.Historically,theIBMsupply

chainranonlegacysystemsspread

acrossdifferentorganizationalsilos,

makinginformation-sharingslowand

incomplete.Employeesalsoperformedmuchoftheirworkonspreadsheets,

whichimpededcollaborationandreal-timedatatransparency.

IBMsupplychainmanagementsetoutaboldtransformationvisiontobuilda

cognitive,intelligentsupplychainmorethanadecadeago.Theaimwastohaveanagilesupplychainthatextensively

usesdataandAItolowercosts,exceedcustomerexpectations,ruthlessly

eliminateorautomatenon-value-add

work,andexponentiallyimprovethe

experienceofsupplychaincolleagues.5

Atahighlevel,theIBMsupplychain

digitaltransformationrevolvesaround

buildingsense-and-respondcapabilities.Thiswasaccomplishedbydemocratizingdata—automatingandaugmenting

decisionsbycombiningacognitivecontroltower,acognitiveadvisor,demand-supplyplanning,andrisk-resiliencesolutions.

Now,thecognitivecontroltowerhas

evolvedintoanenhancedgenerativeAIintelligentlayerusingasupplychain

digitalassistant.

ThesystemusesIBM’sAItechnologyto

enablenaturallanguagequeriesand

responses,whichacceleratesthespeedofdecision-makingandoffersmoreoptionstocorrectissues.Userscanask,innaturallanguage,aboutpartshortages,order

impacts,andpotentialtrade-offs.Todate,IBMhassaved$388millionrelatedto

reducedinventorycosts,optimized

shippingcosts,fasterdecision-making,

andtimesavings(daystohourstominutestoseconds).

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth9

Parttwo

Acceleratingsupplychainintelligence

<u

Ifyourdatacouldtalk,whatwoulditsay?Supplychainteamsareabouttofindout.

<

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth10

WhetherdisruptioniscausedbyInfact,theexecutiveswesurveyed

anticipateoperationalperformance,

enterpriseagility,andstrategicadvantagetobethetopthreebenefitsofusinggenAIinvestmentsintheirsupplychain.And73%saygenAIisalreadyacceleratingtheir

high-impactautomationinitiatives.

73%

ofexecutivessaygenAI

geopoliticalconflict,climatecatastrophes,orincreasingcomplexity,supplychain

leaderswillbejudgedbytheirabilitytofindeffectiveworkarounds.Andthey’relookingtogenAItomaketheirsupplychainmoreagile,adaptive,andfuture-proofed.

isalreadyacceleratingtheirhigh-impact

automationinitiatives.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth11

Thekeyistomaketheentireecosystemmoreresponsive.ByallowinggenAI

assistantstointeractdirectlywiththe

intelligentlayerofthesupplychainsystem—thecognitivecorethatpullsinsightsfrom

vaststoresofdata—internalandexternalteamscancollaboratemoreseamlessly.

ThegoalisforAIassistantstocontinually

communicatetheintelligentlayer’sfindingstotheappropriatepartofthesupplychain

team,alongwithrecommendedactions.

Whiletheenterpriseresourceplanning(ERP)systemremainsthesystemofrecordand

coretransactionengine,supplychainteamsnolongerneedtointeractwithitdirectly.

Andthatgoesforotherspecializedsupply

chainapps,fromprocurementtowarehousemanagementtotransportationlogistics,

aswell.Thisapproachletsemployeesdrilldeeper,allowingforreal-timeanalysisandoptimizationeachstepoftheway.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth

TheconvergenceofgenAIandcloud-basedsolutionshasalsoenabledautonomous

automation(see“Future-proofyoursupplychainwithcloud-enabledinnovation”).

Inadditiontoautomatingworkflows,

genAIassistantscanautomatetheprocessofworkflowreinvention.Theycanlearnfromsupplychainmetricsandtransactionhistory,makeproactiverecommendations,andevenrepurposeorredefinenewworkflowsbasedonwhatthey’velearned.

Thishelpsstreamlineworkflowstomake

themmoreefficient,cost-effective,and

environmentallyresponsible.Infact,63%ofsupplychainandoperationsleaderssayintegratingsustainabilityandcircularityintoworkflowsisakeyreasontheirorganizationisinvestinginautomation.

Perspective

Future-proofyoursupplychainwithcloud-enabledinnovation

WiththecombinedpowerofcloudcomputingandgenerativeAI,companiescan

acceleratesupplychaininnovationandimprovebusinessoutcomestoadegreethatwasn’tpreviouslypossible.

DeployinggenAIonthecloudletscompaniestrainanddeploymodelsfasterand

atscale,withouttheneedforexpensivehardwareorinfrastructure.ItletsmultipleteamscollaborateonthedevelopmentofgenAImodels,movingthembetween

differentcloudenvironmentsandintegratingthemwithothercloud-basedservicesandapplicationsseamlessly.

Then,ofcourse,there’scosttoconsider.Withpay-as-you-gopricing,cloud

infrastructurecaneasecapitalexpenditureconstraints,allowingcompaniesto

focusoninnovation,ratherthanthefinancialimplicationsofinvestinginnewtech.

Whenappliedstrategically,thistechcombocanimproveefficiency,reducecosts,andincreaseagility.Hereareafewwaysyoursupplychaincanbenefitfromcloud-enabledinnovationpoweredbygenAI:

–Forecastfuturedemand.Optimizeinventorylevels,reducestockoutsorover-stocking,andimprovecashflow.

–Optimizedeliveryroutes.Reducefuelconsumption,loweremissions,providedynamicdistribution,andimprovedeliverytimes.

–Managesupplychainrisk.Predictthelikelihoodofdisruptionandrecommendproactivemitigationmeasures.

–Increasesupplychainvisibility.Identifybottlenecksandrecommendcorrectiveactionsteamscantaketokeepoperationsfrombeingdisrupted.

12

Casestudy

Achieveend-to-endvisibilitywithAWSSupplyChain

Supplychainsarevast,interconnectednetworks.Themultitudeof

participants,disparatesystems,andlackofseamlessdatasharing

makeitdifficulttoaccuratelyforecastfuturedemand,trackinventorylevels,andalignsupply.Thefragmentationofdatahinderssupply

chainplanners’abilitytounderstandfluctuations,predictfutureneedsprecisely,andpositionoptimalinventorywhereit’sneededmost.

Thecloud-basedAWSSupplyChain

businessapplicationdirectlyaddresses

thesechallenges.Byharmonizingdisparatedatasourcesintoaunifiedsupplychain

datalake,itlaysthefoundationfor

improvedend-to-endvisibility,forecastingaccuracy,inventoryoptimization,and

overallsupplychainresilience.6Hereareafewofthekeybusinessbenefitsofmovingtothistypeofcloud-basedsolution:

Addressdatafragmentation

Asupplychaindatalakeharmonizes

disparatedataintoaflexible,scalable

canonicaldatamodelthataggregatesandassociatessupplychaininformationinto

aunifieddataasset.Byincorporatinga

generativeAI-powereddataonboarding

agent,companiescanalsoautomatedata

transformationfromanynativeformatintothedatalake’scanonicalmodel.Customerscanseamlesslyextractanduploadraw

data,withtheagentleveraginglarge

languagemodelsforautomateddata

mappingthroughaguided,module-drivenuserinterfaceexperience.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth13

Casestudy(continued)

Increaseforecastaccuracy

Machinelearning-poweredforecasting

capabilitiescanhelporganizationsimproveforecastaccuracyandreduceexcess

inventorylevels.Machinelearning

algorithmscanincorporatevariablessuchasseasonality,productcharacteristics,

vendorcharacteristics,anddestination-originsites,alongwithhistoricalorder

history,totrainthemodel.

Improvesupplychainvisibility

TheAWSbusinessapplicationcanexaminewarehouses,distributioncenters,andstoresindetail,showingon-hand,in-transit,and

at-riskinventorylevels.Itthenusesmachine

learningalgorithmstoautomatically

generate,score,andrankmultipleinventoryrebalancingrecommendationstomitigate

risks.Gainingvisibilityintonetwork-wide

inventorylevels,movementpatterns,andpotentialrisksempowersorganizationstooptimizeinventorypositioningandmitigateimbalances,overstocks,andstockouts.

Improvingsuppliervisibilityandcollaboration

TheAWSapplicationanalyzessupplierleadtimes,makesfutureprojectionscomparedtoordersandforecasts,thenidentifies

issues.Itdisplaysallconnectedtrading

partners,enablingsupplychainleaderstoviewandcollaborateacrossmultipletiers.Built-inchatandmessagingcapabilities

alsofacilitateseamlesscommunicationanddatasharing.

Simplifysustainabilitycomplianceprocesses

Cloud-basedsustainabilityfeaturescreateamoresecureandefficientwaytoobtainmandatorydocumentsanddatasetsfromyoursuppliernetwork.Youcanrequest,

collect,andexportartifacts,suchas

productlifecycleassessments,certificatesonproductsafety,orreportsonhazardoussubstancesusedatanypointinthesupplychain.Amazon’sGlobalTradeandProductCompliance(GTPC)teamusedtheAWS

application’ssustainabilityfeaturestotransformtheircompliancedata

managementprocessandnowexpecttosaveapproximately3,000operational

hoursperyear.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth14

Partthree

Visualizethefuture

Byusingsupplychaindatato

fuelgenAI-poweredvirtualmodels,companiescanunlockanewlevelofoperationalefficiencyandresilience.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth

15

Supplychainleadershavelongimaginedafuturewherereal-timedataflows

seamlesslybetweenITandoperational

technology(OT)systems,enablingamore

agileapproachthatreactstoconstantchange.Andtheirdreamisfinally

becomingreality.

Thinkofamanufacturingfacility,where

operationsteamsalreadyuseAIsensorstodetectchangesinvibrationpatterns,

temperatures,powerconsumption,and

evensoundpatterns.WhiletraditionalAIcanalertteamstosignalsastheyappear—andevenpredictwhenbreakdownsare

abouttooccur—employeesmustmanagenecessaryadjustmentsorrepairsbasedonthisinformation.

WithgenerativeAI,that’snolongerthecase.Whenpairedwithvisionsensors,genAIletsconnectedmachines

self-predictandself-adjustinaharmoniousfashion,unlockingunprecedentedlevelsofproductivityandefficiency.

<

By2026,

77%

ofexecutivesbelievegenAIwillenableconnectedassetsto

makeautonomousdecisions.

ofexecutivessaytheyexpectto

inthenexttwoyears.

76%

usegenAItoderivedifferentiatedoutcomesfromconnectedassets

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth16

Infact,by2026,77%ofexecutivesexpectgenAIwillenableconnectedassetsto

makeautonomousdecisions.Andwhencomplexassetecosystemsworkin

harmony,theycanhelpbusinessesachieveresultsthatweren’tpreviouslypossible.

Executivesrecognizethispotential,with76%sayingtheyexpecttousegenAItoderivedifferentiatedoutcomesfrom

connectedassetsinthenexttwoyears.7

Butboostingefficiencyisjustthefirststep.Businessescanderivemuchdeepervaluefrominterconnecteddatawhentheyuseittovisualizetheend-to-endsupplychain—andsimulatehowdisruptioncouldimpactoperationseachstepoftheway.

Itworkslikethis:First,datafromdrones,robots,cameras,andotherconnected

assetsflowintoaunifiedplatformwith

ageospatiallayer,aninformationlayer,

andanorchestrationlayer.Time-lapsedvisualizationsthenletsupplychainteamsseehowspecificchangeshaveimpactedtheecosysteminthepast—andmake

real-timedecisionsassituationsunfoldinthepresent.

GenAI-enabledvirtualmodelscanthen

helpteamssimulatehowfutureevents

couldaffectsupplychainoperations.

Theyusereal-worlddataandalgorithmictechniquestovisualizehowthedominos

willfallinresponsetodifferentdisruptionstohelpteamsplanaccordingly.They

support“what-if”riskanalysisbypredictingpotentialproblems—fromrawmaterial

shortagestomultiplesupplierplantclosings

simultaneously—andrecommendingrespectivecontingencyplans.

Thesesimulationscanalsoinformproductdevelopmentbyhelpingteamsidentify

wherewasteandinefficienciescanbe

removedfromtheprocess.Thisisakey

concernforexecutives,whosayvisibility

offullproductlifecyclemanagementand

environmentallysustainableproductsandservicesaretwooftheirtopautomation

prioritiesfortheiroperationsfunctionsoverthenextthreeyears.

Withtherightperspective,supplychain

leaderscanlookbeyondproductivityplaystopulltheleversthatdrivegrowth.ByusinggenAItoorchestratemultipledatasources,systems,andtools,theycaninspire

innovationacrosstheecosystem—and

informthestrategicdecisionsthatsettheirorganizationapart.

Lookbeyondproductivityplaystopulltheleversthatdrivegrowth.

Theintuitivesupplychain:Predictdisruption,delivergrowth