世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇：2025首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家展望

CentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety

ChiefEconomists

Outlook

January2025

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Disclaimer

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2

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

ChiefEconomistsOutlookJanuary2025

Thisbriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicy

developmentresearchaswellasconsultationsandsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomists

fromboththepublicandprivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety.

Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandidentifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-makers

andbusinessleadersinresponsetothe

compoundingshockstotheglobaleconomyfromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.

Thesurveyfeaturedinthisbriefing

wasconductedinlateNovember2024.

3

Contents

Executivesummary 5

1.Downsideriskshaverisen 7

2.AlleyesontheUS 14

3.Globalintegrationundergrowingstrain 18

Domesticandinternationalpolicydrivers 18

Thechallengesoffragmentation 20

4.Aturbulentyearfortrade 23

Trade-wardynamicssettointensify 23

Theshifttoservicestradecontinues 25

References 28

Contributors 33

Acknowledgements 34

Cover:Unsplash

4

Executivesummary

TheJanuary2025editionoftheChief

EconomistsOutlooklaunchesatthe

startofwhatislikelytobeaneventful

yearfortheglobaleconomy.Theoutlookremainssubdued,withamajorityofchief

economists(56%)expectingtheglobal

economytoweakenoverthenextyear,

comparedto17%anticipatingimprovement.

Expectationsforglobalgrowtharemuted

overallbutsubjecttosignificantregional

divergence.TheUSeconomyisexpectedtodeliverrobustgrowthin2025,andSouthAsia,particularlyIndia,isalsoexpected

tomaintainstronggrowth.Theoutlook

forEuroperemainsgloomy,with74%

ofrespondentspredictingweakorvery

weakgrowththisyear.TheoutlookforChinaalsoremainsweak,andgrowthisprojectedtoslowgraduallyintheyearsahead.

Globalinflationiseasing,withthe

InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)projectinganannualaverageof4.3%in2025,downfrom5.8%in2024.However,services

inflationremainshigherthangoodsinflation,particularlyinadvancedandemerging-

marketeconomies.Moderateinflationisexpectedinmostregions,buttheuptickintheshort-termoutlookforgrowthinthe

UShasbeenaccompaniedbyasignificantincreaseininflationexpectations,accordingtothechiefeconomists.

ThechiefeconomistsexpectUSpolicytohaveasignificantimpactonthe

globaleconomyintheyearsahead.

Amajority(61%)characterizethisimpact

asalong-termshiftratherthanashort-

termdisruption.Undertheincoming

administration,thechiefeconomistsexpectsignificantchangesacrosstrade,migration,deregulation,fiscalpolicy,industrialpolicyandforeignpolicy.Largemajoritiesexpecttoseeincreasesininflationandpublicdebtlevels,aswellasstock-marketgains.

Theglobaleconomiclandscapeis

increasinglyfragmented.Thisisparticularlytrueforgoodstrade,where94%ofchiefeconomistsexpectfurtherfragmentationoverthenextthreeyears.Significant

majoritiesalsoexpectincreasedbarrierstolabourmobilityandtransfersof

technologyanddata.Geopoliticalrivalriesanddomesticpolicychoicesareviewed

asthekeydriversofcurrentfragmentationtrends,highlightingthegrowingimportanceofinteractionsbetweenpoliticaland

economicfactors.

5

Themainimpactofrisingfragmentationthatthechiefeconomistshighlightisa

likelyincreaseincostsforconsumers

andbusinesses.Collaborationonglobalchallengessuchasclimatechangeis

alsoexpectedtobecomemoredifficult.Inresponsetotheseshiftsintheglobal

landscape,thechiefeconomistsexpectmultinationalcompaniestorespondwitharangeofadaptations,includingchangestosupplychainsandorganizational

restructurings.

Thechiefeconomistsexpectanintensificationoftrade-wardynamicsintheyearsahead,bothbetweentheUSandChinaandmorebroadly.However,theexpectationisalso

thattradevolumeswillcontinuetoincrease.Thereisconsensusthatprotectionismwillcausedurablechangestotradepatterns

overthenextthreeyears,withconflictandnationalsecurityconcernsalsohighlightedasimportantdriversofchange.

Thechiefeconomistsexpectgrowing

regionalizationoftrade,aswellasa

continuationofagradualshiftinthe

compositionoftradefromgoodsto

services.Ingeneral,advancedeconomiestendtobenefitmorethandeveloping

economiesfromservicestrade,buta

majorityofthechiefeconomistspointtotheincreasingimportanceofservicesasadriverofeconomicdevelopment.

6

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

1.Downsideriskshaverisen

Theoutlookfortheglobaleconomyremainssubduedanddownsideriskshaveintensified,notleastbecauseofheighteneduncertaintyaroundtheeconomicimplicationsof

November’sUSpresidentialelection.

AccordingtotheWorldEconomicForum’slatestsurveyofchiefeconomists,amajority

(56%)expecttheglobaleconomyto

weakenoverthenextyearcompared

to17%whoexpectittostrengthen(seeFigure1).Comparedtothelastsurvey

inAugust2024,expectationsfortheyearaheadhavesoftened.1

Figure1.Theglobaleconomicoutlook

Lookingattheyearahead,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy?

SomewhatweakerMuchweakerUnchangedSomewhatstrongerMuchstronger

Economicgrowth562817

Shareofrespondents(%)

Note:Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

Atthetimeofwriting,theInternational

MonetaryFund’s(IMF)latestprojection

isthattheglobaleconomywillexpand

by3.2%thisyear,unchangedfrom2024,

andthatitwillslowmarginallyto3.1%

overthenextfiveyears.2Thisremainsoneoftheweakestmedium-termoutlooksin

decades,andtherearesignselsewhereofglobalforecastsbeingtrimmedtoreflecttheimpactofexpectedchangestoUSpolicy.3

Thenextsectionwilllookattheoutlook

fortheUSeconomyingreaterdetail,

butexpectationsofashort-termboost

arereflectedin44%ofchiefeconomistspointingtostrongUSgrowthin2025(seeFigure2)–threetimesasmanyasinthelastsurvey.4ThechiefeconomistsexpectdevelopmentsintheUStoexertadragonglobalgrowth,buttheycontinuetoexpectsignificantdivergenceacrossregions.

1WorldEconomicForum.(2024).

2InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2024a).

3MorganStanley.(2024).

4GoldmanSachs.(2024).

7

SouthAsiacontinuestostandout,with

61%ofchiefeconomistsexpectingstrongorverystronggrowthin2025.Thisregionalperformancehasbeendrivenlargelyby

robustgrowthinIndia,whichremainstheworld’sfastest-growingmajoreconomy.However,therearenowsignsofsome

momentumbeinglost:thelatestnationalaccountsdataforIndiapointtoyear-on-

yearGDP(grossdomesticproduct)growthof5.4%inthethirdquarterof2024,the

slowestrateinnearlytwoyears,promptingadownwardrevisiontothecentralbank’s

annualgrowthforecastinDecember.5

Elsewhereintheregion,therehasbeenstronggrowthinthecountriesofASEAN(AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations),whereGDP

isexpectedtoexpandby4.7%in2025.6

Figure2.Growthexpectations

Whatisyourexpectationforeconomicgrowthinthefollowinggeographiesin2025?

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

SouthAsia

UnitedStates

CentralAsia

EastAsiaandPaci?cSub-SaharanAfrica

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanChina

Europe

7325011

94744

87319

185725

225226

256411

425647

474112

126226

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

5Kaushik&Reed.(2024).

6InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2024b).

8

Foralmostthreeyears,Europehasregisteredtheweakestregionalprospectsamongchiefeconomists,andinthelatestsurvey,74%

ofrespondentsexpectweakorveryweakgrowthfortheregion.Thechallengesfacingtheregionwerehighlightedinthemost

recentnationalaccountsdatafortheEuroarea,whichrecordedaggregateyear-on-

yeargrowthofjust0.9%inthethirdquarteroflastyear–thiscomparesto2.7%intheUSoverthesameperiod.7TheEuroarea’slargesteconomy,Germany,contractedby0.3%,whiletherewasgrowthof0.4%in

Italy,1.2%inFranceand3.4%inSpain.8

InaSeptemberreport,MarioDraghi,the

formerItalianprimeministerandgovernor

oftheEuropeanCentralBank,spotlighted

Europe’seconomicchallenges.Soundinganalarmfortheregion’seconomicprospects,hisreportwarnedthatannualinvestment

equivalentto5%ofGDPwouldberequiredtoreviveitseconomicdynamism.9However,theprospectsofdeterminedactiontoboosttheEuropeaneconomylookeddistantattheendof2024,withbothGermanyandFrancemiredindomesticpoliticaldifficulties.

TheoutlookforChinaalsoremainsweak.GrowthisexpectedtoslowgraduallyandisprojectedbytheIMFat4.8%in2024and

4.5%in2025.10Earlierforecastsfor2024

werereviseddownwardsfrom5%asa

resultofdisappointingdomesticdemand

inthesecondquarter,andhigh-frequencydatasuggestthatwhileexportshavepickedup,consumerdemandhasremained

subdued.11Novemberretailsalesgrowthof3%missedexpectationsof4.6%.12

Overthemediumterm,growthisprojectedtoslowdowntoabout3.3%in2029amidheadwindsfromweakproductivityand

anageingpopulation.13

Intheotherregionscoveredinthesurvey,theassessmentsofthechiefeconomistssurveyedremainbroadlyunchangedfromtheprevioussurvey.FortheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,almosttwo-thirdsexpectmoderategrowthintheyearahead,but

theriskstothisoutlookarehighlighted

bythefactthatmorethantwiceasmanyrespondentsexpectweakgrowthratherthanstrong.ForSub-SaharanAfrica,theshareofchiefeconomistswhoexpect

moderateorstrongergrowthin2025

increasedto78%.Thisuptickisinline

withtheprojectionofsolid4.2%growthfortheregionthisyearfromtheIMF.14ForLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,almosttwo-thirdsofchiefeconomistscontinuetoexpectmoderategrowththisyear.

7Eurostat.(2024).

8Ibid.

9Draghi,M.(2024).

10InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2024b).

11Ibid.

12Haleetal.(2024).

13InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)AsiaandPacificDepartment.(2024).

14InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2024a).

9

Globalinflationcontinuestoease,withtheIMFprojectinganannualaverageof4.3%thisyear,downfrom6.7%in2023and

anestimated5.8%in2024.15Thisoveralldecelerationhasbeendrivenprimarily

bytheadvancedeconomies,whichhavebeenreturningtotheirinflationtargets

morerapidlythanemerging-marketanddevelopingeconomies.Servicesinflationhasbeenslowertoeasethangoods

inflation,andinnumerousadvancedandemerging-marketeconomies,thecoreservicesinflationrateisstillaround50%higherthanbeforethepandemic.16

Regionalinflationassessmentsbychief

economists(seeFigure3)showthat,after

November’selection,theUSnowleads

ininflationexpectations.However,nearly

three-quartersofrespondentsstillanticipateonlymoderateinflationin2025.Mostoftheregionsrecordabroadlysimilarpattern,withasignificantmajorityexpectingmoderate

inflationandamuchsmallershareexpectingeitherweakorstronginflation.

Figure3.Inflationexpectations

Whatisyourexpectationforinflationinthefollowinggeographiesin2025?

VerylowLowModerateHighVeryhigh

UnitedStates

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanSub-SaharanAfrica

MiddleEastandNorthAfricaSouthAsia

CentralAsia

Europe

EastAsiaandPaci?cChina

127315

215721

206416

206812

22707

19784

36586

4159

136720

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

15InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2024a).

16Ibid.

10

InLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,the

shareofrespondentsexpectinglowinflationincreasedfromjust6%inthelastsurvey

to21%inthelatest.EuropeandtheEastAsiaandPacificregionhavenotablyhigherproportionsofrespondentsanticipating

lowinflation(36%and41%,respectively).However,Chinaistheunsurprisingoutliergiventhedeflationarypressuresthecountry

hasbeengrapplingwith.Interestingly,

thechiefeconomists’assessment(80%expectingloworverylowinflation)ismorebearishthaninthelastsurvey(69%).

ThiscontrastswiththeviewoftheIMFinitslatest“ArticleIV”assessmentoftheChineseeconomy,whichestimatesthatconsumer

priceinflationwillpickupfrom0.7%lastyearto1.9%thisyear.17

Figure4.Monetarypolicyoutlook

Whatisyourexpectationformonetarypolicyinthefollowinggeographiesin2025?

LooserUnchangedTighter

CentralAsia

Europe

163

81

5

China

33

3

17

12

24

64

62

EastAsiaandPaci?c

79

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

UnitedStates

Asia

South

9

4

LatinAmericaand

39

theCaribbean

48

43

57

33

67

13

43

Sub-SaharanAfrica

43

33

67

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

17InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)AsiaandPacificDepartment.(2024).

11

Whilecentralbanksremainvigilantfollowingtheinflationarysurgeofrecentyears,the

tighteningphaseforglobalmonetarypolicyhasclearlyended.Theoverwhelming

majorityofchiefeconomistsexpectpolicytoremainunchangedorlooseninallregionsthisyear,withexpectationsofinterestratecutshighestforEurope,ChinaandtheUS.

Giventhelargediscrepanciesinthe

economicprospectsforEuropeandtheUS,thepolicystancesoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)andtheFederalReserveare

expectedtodivergefurther.18Withgrowth

intheEuroareaprojectedtoremainlowand

inflationexpectedtosettlearoundthetargetrateof2%,theECBlookslikelytocontinueonapathoffurtherinterestratecuts,

followingthreecutsof0.25%inthefinal

fourmonthsof2024,whichtookthemainpolicyrateto3%.19IntheUS,theFederalReservecutratesbyafullpercentagepointduringthesameperiod(to4.5%),butits

outlookhasshifted,andinDecember,it

signalledaslowerpaceoflooseningin

2025thanpreviouslyexpected.20Thispivottoamorehawkishpositionjoltedfinancialmarkets–thedollarjumpedtoatwo-yearhigh,andtheS&P500stockindexdroppedbynearly3%.21

Figure5.Fiscalpolicyoutlook

Whatisyourexpectationforfiscalpolicyinthefollowinggeographiesin2025?

LooserUnchangedTighter

CentralAsia

Europe

44

28

China

41

73

90

12

12

75

31

92

9

UnitedStates

EastAsiaandPaci?c

SouthAsia

MiddleEastand

8

12

NorthAfrica

4

12

LatinAmericaand

91

theCaribbean

80

83

Sub-SaharanAfrica

96

4

8

24

68

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

18Giles,C.(2024).

19EuropeanCentralBank(ECB).(2024).

20Clarfelt,H.&Smith,C.(2024).

21Ibid.

12

Intermsoffiscalpolicy,largemajorities

ofthechiefeconomistssurveyedexpect

alooserstanceintheUSandChinathis

year(75%and90%,respectively),while

viewsonEuropearesplitbutwithaslightskewtowardstightening.Elsewhere,mostrespondentsexpectfiscalpolicytoremainunchangedintheyearahead.However,thebackdropforfiscalpolicydecisionsislikelytocontinuetoposesignificantchallenges.

ThelatestIMFestimateforglobalpublic

debtin2024ismorethan$100trillion,withthepotentialtoreach115%ofGDPoverthenextthreeyears.22Moreover,governmentswillfacemountingpressurestoaddress

a“fiscalpolicytrilemma”23ofdealingwiththecostsrelatedtosecurity,population

ageingandclimatechange,withouteitherjeopardizingdebtsustainabilityorleadingtopoliticalpushbackagainstrisingtaxes.24

22InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2024c).

23Gaspar,V.(2024).

24InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2024c).

13

2.AlleyesontheUS

ThiseditionoftheChiefEconomistsOutlooklaunchesasanewUSadministration

takesoffice.Thesystemicimportanceof

theUStotheglobaleconomymeansthat

changesofadministrationarealwayscloselyassessedfortheirpotentialdomesticand

internationalimplications.However,this

patternhasbeenunusuallyintensesince

November’selection,bothbecauseof

already-fraughtglobalconditionsandthe

platformofdramaticpolicychangeonwhichthePresidentcampaigned.25

Amongthechiefeconomistssurveyed,

thereisunanimitythatdevelopmentsin

theUSwillalterthetrajectoryoftheglobaleconomy,withasolidmajorityof61%

characterizingthischangeasalong-term

shiftratherthanashort-termdisruption

(seeFigure6).Thisechoestheviewthat

whereasthefirstTrumpadministrationcouldbeseenbysomeasablip,thesecond

shouldbeseenmoreasaninflection

pointforthepoliticalandeconomic

order,consolidatingtrendsthathavebeengatheringmomentuminmanycountriessincetheglobalfinancialcrisis.26

Thechiefeconomists’expectationsfor

policychangeintheUSarebroadlyinlinewiththepolicyprioritiesarticulatedduringtheelectioncampaign,withlargemajoritiesexpectingsignificantchangeintheareas

oftrade,migration,deregulation,fiscal

policy,industrialpolicyandforeignpolicy.

Theonlypolicyareainwhichrespondentsdonotexpectsignificantchangeis

monetarypolicy,wheretheFederal

Reserveislegallyindependentofboth

thepresidencyandCongress.However,

monetarypolicymayhaveasignificantroletoplayincushioningdevelopmentsintherealeconomyifchangesinotherpolicy

areasprovetobeinflationary.27

Figure6.Globalimpact

HowwouldyoucharacterisethelikelyimpactoftheUSelectionresultonthetrajectoryoftheglobaleconomy?

Nosigni?cantchangeShort-termdisruptionLong-termshift

USelectionimpactontheglobaleconomy3961Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

25TheAmericanPresidencyProject.(2024).

26Klein,E.(2024).

27UnitedStatesFederalReserve.(2024).

14

Figure7.Policyoutlook

InwhichUSpolicyareasdoyouexpecttoseethemostsignificantchangesunderthenewUSadministration?

Veryinsigni?cantInsigni?cantNeutralSigni?cantVerysigni?cant

Tradepolicy

MigrationpolicyForeignpolicy

RegulatorypolicyFiscalpolicy

IndustrialpolicyMonetarypolicy

62668

634150

3335932

635833

31236715

33295015

9668153

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

Iffullyimplemented,thenewadministration’scampaignagendawouldbeasignificant

departurefromcurrenteconomicpolicy.28

However,thereremainsahighdegreeof

uncertaintyovertheextenttowhichthe

campaignagendawillbeimplemented.Forexample,while68%ofthechiefeconomistsexpectverysignificantchangestotrade

policy,morethan90%expectthatnewUStariffswillbesmallerthantheonespromisedduringthepresidentialcampaign(see

Figure15).29Cautionisneeded,therefore,inanticipatingthelikelymagnitudeofchangesin2025andbeyond.

Onepotentialrestraininginfluenceon

policycouldbeconsumerprices,which

wereacentralissueduringthepresidentialcampaign.Theevidencesuggeststhat

manyvoterswerelessconcernedwith

thedeceleratingrateofchangeofprices

(consumerpriceinflationhadfallento

2.7%inNovember202430)thanwiththeir

cumulativeincrease(around20%overthefourprecedingyears).31Itisthereforeat

leastpossiblethatthenewadministrationwillnotwanttoriskbeingassociated

witharenewedperiodofrisingprices.

Nevertheless,amongthechiefeconomists,94%expecttheinflationratetoincrease

underthenewadministration(seeFigure8),withtheproportionexpectinghighinflationin2025doublingsincethelastsurvey

(seeFigure3).

28TheEconomist.(2024a).

29InFebruary2024,DonaldTrumpannouncedthathewouldincreasetariffsonallgoodsfromChinaby60%andintroducenewtariffsof10%acrosstheboard(Piciotto,2024).InNovember2024,heclarifiedthathewouldintroduce25%tariffsongoodsfromMexicoandCanadaandanadditional10%onallChinesegoodscomingintotheUS(Pitas,2024).

30U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics.(2024).

31Goudreau,C.(2024).

15

Figure8.Economicimpact

WhatchangesdoyouexpecttothefollowingUSeconomicandfinancialindicatorsunderthenewUSadministration?

StrongdecreaseDecreaseNochangeIncreaseStrongincrease

Publicdebtlevels

Consumerpricein?ationStockmarketindices

Wagelevels

UnemploymentrateTaxrates

38215

33913

129746

33562

155629

919

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2024,November).

Thisisinlinewithastrongconsensus

thatthenewadministration’scampaign

platformwouldbehighlyinflationary.

Keyelementsthatcouldbeexpectedtodrivepriceshigherincludethestimulus

effectoflowertaxes(expectedby91%

ofchiefeconomists)andtheimpacton

wagesandpricesofthelaboursupply

shockthatwouldresultfromamaximal

implementationofapromisedprogrammeofmassdeportations.32Potentialtariff

increaseswouldaddevenmorepressure

(seesection4).ItisnotablethatinflationexpectationsintheUStickedupintheweeksfollowingtheelection.33

Thechiefeconomistsarenear-unanimous(97%)intheirexpectationthatpublic

debtlevelswillrise,pointingtoalackof

confidencethattaxcutswillbematched

byapromiseddrivetocutpublicspending,whichisbeingspearheadedbyanewhigh-profileadvisorycommission(theDepartmentofGovernmentEfficiency).34

32Rogers,T.N.(2024).

33WorldBank.(2024a).

34TheEconomist.(2024b).

16

Amajority(56%)alsoexpectsthe

unemploymentratetoremainunchanged,whilealmosttwo-thirds(62%)expect

wagelevelstorise.Alargemajorityof

respondents(80%)