2025年全球宏觀市場展望報告

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SUMMARYPOINTS

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SteveLocke

CIO,FixedIncome&

Multi-AssetStrategies

Fixedincome

1Theinflationbattleisover...fornow.

2Expectmonetarypolicydivergence.

LesleyMarks

CIO,Equities

3PocketsofvalueremaininUSmarket.

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Livinginafairytale

Reflectingonthepastyear,it’sclearthatinvestorsexperiencedsuccessacrosstheboard.Withequityandbondmarketsdeliveringstrongreturns,2024wasahighlyprofitableyear.

Thebattleagainstthefinalphaseofinflationappearstobelargelywon,opening

thedoortopotentialgloballycoordinatedcentralbankeasing.Withinflationrates

declininginmostmajordevelopedeconomies,thegroundworkhasbeenlaidfor

acontinuationofthisfavourableinvestmentlandscapeforequitieswhiletheoutlookforbondmarketsismorenuanced.

TheratecuttingcyclebeganwiththeBankofCanada,EuropeanCentralBankand

theBankofEnglandallcuttingpolicyratesinthesecondquarter,withtheFederal

Reserveeventuallyjoiningtheratecutparty.Fromtheir2024peakinApril,CanadianandUS10-yeargovernmentbondyieldsdroppedbymorethan100basispoints

bylatesummer,beforeexperiencingarebound.Canadianbondinvestorswere

rewardedwithamodestyetpositive3%returnontheFTSECanadaUniverseBondIndexthroughOctober.

Forequities,althoughtheyearbeganwiththeMagnificentSeven(Mag7)dominating

stockmarketreturnsthatisnothowthingsended,asinvestorsbegantorotate

beyondthenarrowconfinesoftheMag7towardsbroaderareasofthemarket.Thisgroupofmega-capstockspeakedinearlyJulyandexperiencednegativereturns

whiletheS&P500wentontoreachnewhighs.Althoughtherewereperiodsof

volatility,(suchasthetwo-dayJapanesesummercorrectionandnextdayreversal),noneofthoseconcernsprevailedandglobalequitiessurgedhigheroverthispastyearwiththeMSCIWorldIndex(inCanadiandollars)deliveringa23%returntotheendofOctober.

“

Thebattleagainstthefinalphase

ofinflationappearstobelargelywon.

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TheeconomicbackdropprovedtobebenignwithregionslikeCanada,EuropeandtheUKcontinuingtoexperiencetheeconomicslowdown

thatbeganin2023.Thistranslatedintoflatornegativeearningsgrowthfortheseregions.Ordinarilythiswouldprovetobeabearishheadwind

fortheseequitymarkets,butthesecondhalfrotationintointerestsensitivenamesasratesfell,providedaboosttoequitiesinareasoutsideoftheUnitedStates,despiteweakerrelativegrowth.

Formoreinterest-ratesensitiveeconomieslikeCanada,theeffect

ofhighinterestrateshasdampenedeconomicgrowthsubstantially.

AlthoughrealGDPgrowthhasremainedpositiveoverall,when

factoringinthepopulationgrowthrate,CanadianrealGDPper

capitahashadanegativegrowthrateinmostquarterssince

2022.Thisgarneredattentionfromeconomists,investorsand

journalistsandprevailedasanoverhangfortheprospectsoftheCanadianeconomy.

FortheFederalReserve,itwasthecombinationofinflationtrending

lowerandagradualweakeningofthelabourmarketthatgavethe

greenlighttolowertheFedFundsrate(Figure1).September’s50basispointcutunderscoredforthemarketthattheFedisseriousabout

maintainingthesoftlandingofeconomicgrowth.TheUSeconomy

continuedtostandoutfromthecrowd—achievingtrue“Goldilocks”statuswithearningsgrowthmaintainedinthelowdouble-digitrangethatwasprojectedatthestartoftheyear.

Ourdecisiontoneutralweightequitiesandbondswasbasedontheviewthatamoderationintightmonetarypolicywouldbeconstructive

forbothbondsandequities.Weheldsomereservationsonthe

prospectforgreatervolatilitybecauseoftheongoingconflictsin

UkraineandtheMiddleEast,aswellastheuncertaintysurroundingthepolicyimpactfromtheUSelection.

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Figure1:HeadlineCPIinflation(YoY)USCanadaEurozoneJapanUK

2020

Source:Bloomberg,October2024.

12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%

2.6%

2.5%

2.3%

2.0%

2.0%

2022

2024

2016

2018

2014

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Outlookfor2025:Protectingthegoldengoose

ThisyearourattentionwascaptivatedbytheprojectedoutcomeoftheUSelectionbutgiventhehistoricaltrendofrobustequitymarketsinthefourthyearofanelectioncycle,regardlessoftheoutcome,thiswasjustadistraction.

Nowthatelectiondayhaspassed,itmighttakeawhiletodeterminewhatthe

marketshavealreadyfactoredin.Nonetheless,Trump’sdecisivevictoryisexpectedtohavepotentiallysignificantimplicationsforgeopoliticalrisksandtradeflows,andfortheoutlookforvariousassetclassesandsectors.

FortheUSbondmarket,theelectionoutcomecouldproducesomelargershifts

ingovernmentpoliciesthatinturnhavethepotentialtochangetheUSinflation

andyieldcurvepicturesignificantly.Iftariffsareimplementedwidely,supplychaindisruptionsandhigherUSimportpricesarelikelytoresurrectinflation.Alongsidethis,theloweringoftaxratesandensuinglargerdeficitsarelikelytosteepentheyieldcurve.Stricterimmigrationpoliciescouldtightenlabourmarketconditions,

leadingtohigherwageinflation.Ifthesepoliciesareimplementedaspromised,theFedmayabandonitsratecuttingposturein2025,optingtomaintainorevenincreaseinterestratesifinflationexpectationsrise.

TheoutcomeoftheUSelectioncouldhavefar-reachingimpacts,asglobaleconomicprospectsfor2025arebeingbolsteredbyanexpectedcontinuationofthemonetarypolicystimulusfrommanycentralbanks,andbythelaggedeffectsof2024’sactions.Withmarketshavingembracedtheideathatinflationislikelytoremaincontained,

centralbanksinslowingeconomieslikeCanadaandtheEUareexpectedtolower

policyratesmuchfurther.Canada’seconomymayneedratestofallbymorethan

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otherG7economiestostimulateareboundindomesticdemandandclosetheoutputgap.ThismeansthattheBankofCanadamayneedtocutmoreaggressivelythantheFederalReservein2025.Canadianbondyieldsarealsomorelikelytodeclinerelative

“

TheBankofCanada

mayneedtocutmoreaggressivelythan

theFederalReservein2025.

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toUSyields.WeexpectthiswillputcontinueddownwardpressureontheCanadiandollar.

Afterastrongyearofperformanceacrosstheboardin2024,

corporatebondsarestillofferingattractiveyieldstoinvestors.

Corporatebondspreadsinbothinvestmentgradeandhighyieldbondmarketsarenotforecastinganybroad-baseddeteriorationinfundamentals.WithTrump’selectiontotheOvalOffice,we

shouldexpecttoseeaderegulationagendaemergeandthepolicyenvironmentturnfriendliertobanking.Whilecorporateyieldspreadsarenotcheapbyanyhistoricalmeasures,maintaininganoverweightpositionwithabiastowardhigherqualityislikelytorewardcredit

investorsnextyear.

Lookingforwardto2025,theglobalequitymarketispoisedforayearmarkedbybothopportunitiesandchallenges.Ourequityoutlookis

groundedinthefundamentalsdrivingthestateoftheeconomy—earningsgrowthexpectations,andthemultipleweshouldpayforthoseearnings.Afterthedisruptionsthatarosefromthepandemicandassociatedrecovery,runawayinflationandcentralbank

tightening,wecanexpecttoenjoyamorestablephaseofeconomicgrowth.However,dependingonthepaceanddegreeofpolicy

changestobeimplementedbytheTrumpadministration,estimatesofglobalGDPgrowthratesfor2025couldseeupwardrevisionsinthemonthsahead(Figure2).

Atfacevalue,thestableeconomicbackdropandourpositive

outlookforcorporateprofitssupportsabullishoutlookforequitiesinthecomingyear.Inaddition,centralbankers,feelingliketheyhave

wontheinflationbattle,haveturnedtheirpolicyattentiontoboostingeconomicgrowthwithcontinuedeasypolicywhichshouldalso

supportequityreturns.

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Figure2:GlobalGDPestimates

ConsensusestimatesrealGDPgrowth(YoY%change)

5.2%

4.8%

4.5%

3.6%

3.2%3.1%3.1%

2.6%

1.7%

1.2%

0.7%

0.4%

0.0%

USCanadaEurozoneChinaJapanWorld

Source:Bloomberg,October31,2024.

2024Estimated2025Estimated

20222023

3.0%

3.5%

2.5%

1.2%

1.8%

1.3%

1.9%

3.1%

2.1%

1.1%

1.1%

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Butthiswon’tbewithoutriskandpotentialforheightenedvolatility.Althoughthelastinflationbattleappearstobewon,asdiscussed,anotherfightmaybearoundthe

cornerwiththeonsetoftariffsandonshoringcontributingtoaresurgenceininflation.

WearealsowatchingcarefullytherecentpolicyshiftsfromtheChinesegovernmentwhichincludedmonetaryeasing,reducedmortgageratesandsupportforstock

buybacks,astheoutlookforChineseeconomicgrowthhasanoutsizedimpacton

globalgrowthexpectations.WebelievethatgreaterfiscalsupportwillbeneededtooffsetthedownwardpressurefromthepropertymarketinChinabuttherecognitionthattheeconomyneedsthispolicysupportisundoubtedlyanecessaryconditionforasustainedupwardmoveinChineseequities.

Turningtovaluation,almostuniversally,marketsaretradingclosetolong-

termhistoricalaveragemultiples,withoneexceptionbeingtheS&P500.The

concentrationoftheUSstockmarketinmega-capsandthelargeexposuretothe

technologysectorhidesthefactthatthereisstillattractivevaluetobefoundinthe

remaining“S&P493”stocksandUSsmallandmid-capcompanies.WhileaggregatevaluationmayleadyoutoshyawayfromUSequities,webelievethatopportunity

stillexistsforcapitalappreciationwithcarefulstockselection.Asweexpectinterestratestofallfasterintherestoftheworld,thisshouldhelpsupportmultipleexpansion

andinturnhighersharepricesinregionslikeCanadaandEuropeaswell.Withthesupportoflowerinterestrates,cyclicalitywillbeanimportantfactorinsectorallocationacrossportfolios.

Despitethestrengthwe’veexperiencedinglobalequityandbondmarkets

overthepastyear,opportunitieswillstillemergeacrossvariousassetclasses.

However,challengesfrompotentialinflationarypressures,geopoliticaltensionand

unforeseenrisksremainkeyconsiderationsforinvestors.Tosuccessfullynavigate

thisenvironment,adoptingabalancedanddiversifiedapproach–spanningdifferentassetclasses,geographiesandsectorswillhelpmitigatetheeffectsofexpected

2025MARKETOUTLOOK

marketvolatilityandprovideamorestablepathforwardforinvestors.

“

Webelievethat

opportunitystill

existsforcapitalappreciation

withcarefulstockselection.

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Thepastyearwasoneofrapidrecoveryfrom

theglobalinflationshock.In2025,themarketswillrequireamoreselectiveapproach.

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Ourportfoliomanagersweighinonfixedincomeandequities

fromaroundtheworld,providingtheirinsightintohowthecurrentenvironmentwillunfold.Thisincludestheinterplaybetweenmajoreconomiesandpotentialdivergenceinmonetarypolicy.

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CONTRIBUTORS

WilliamAldridge

SVP,PortfolioManager&TeamCo-Lead,NorthAmericanEquity&IncomeTeam

KonstantinBoehmer

SVP,PortfolioManager&TeamLead,MackenzieFixedIncomeTeam

HadizaDjataou

VP,PortfolioManager,

MackenzieFixedIncomeTeam

SeamusKelly

SVP,PortfolioManager&TeamLead,MackenzieEuropeTeam

ShahKhan

VP,PortfolioManager&TeamCo-Lead,MackenzieBluewaterTeam

KatherineOwen

VP,PortfolioManager,

MackenzieGlobalEquity&IncomeTeam

NickScott

SVP,PortfolioManager&TeamLead,MackenzieAsiaTeam

RichardWong

SVP,PortfolioManager&TeamLead,MackenzieCundillTeam

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Konstantin,whatareyourthoughtsabouttheCanadianeconomyasweenter2025?

Konstantin:Ithinkthereareworryingsignsthatpointtoeconomic

growthslipping.Onanaggregatebasis,growthhasbeendecent,butimmigrationhasbeenapowerfultailwind.Onapercapitabasis,whichiswhatpeoplefeel,wearealreadyinrecession.Therearemultiple

areasofstressintheeconomythatwillplayoutinsomewayin2025.

HowdoyouthinktheBankofCanada(BoC)viewsthecurrenteconomicsituation?

Konstantin:UpuntiltheOctobermeeting,theBankseemed

reasonablycomfortableintheirpositionwithmeasured25basispointcuts.Buttheychangedtheirtunewitha50basispointcutatthe

Octobermeeting.

CouldtheBoCalreadybebehindthecurve?

Konstantin:Yes.TheeconomyisweakandinflationisalreadyatthemidpointoftheBank’stargetrange.But,atthestartofQ4,inflation

wasactuallyrunningat1.1%ifwestrippedoutmortgageinterestcosts.WethinktheBankstillmightbeunderestimatingpotentialeconomicchallenges,anditmayneedtoimplementmoredrasticmeasuresthatcould,potentially,reducethebenchmarkpolicyrateto2%orlessbytheendof2025.

What’stheroleofhousinginapotentialrecession?

Konstantin:Veryhigh—2025isabigyearformortgagerenewals

andlet’sseehowthatplaysoutonthehouseholdbalancesheet.

Buthousingismorethanpeoplerenewingmortgages.It’stheroleofdevelopersandtheconstructionindustry.There’satrickledownto

realestateagents,notariesandotherprofessionalsintheecosystem.Idon’tthink100basispointsoflowerrateswilljustmagicallyturn

thisaround.

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Shah,whatareyourthoughtsabouttheCanadianeconomyasweenter2025?

Shah:IsharealotoftheconcernsKonstantinexpressed.

Theconsumerrepresentsthelargestpartoftheeconomyandthey’reinatougherspotcomparedtotheirUScounterparts.TheBankof

Canadahascommenceditseasingcycle,butittakestimeforthisrelieftobefeltinthebroadereconomy.

Shah,whatdoyouthinkabouttheBig6BanksinCanadawithrespecttomortgagerenewals?

Shah:TheCanadianbanksarebestofbreedgloballybutinthis

environment,youhavetobeselectiveaboutthenamesyouown.

Unsecuredportfoliossuchascreditcards,personallinesofcredit,

orevenautomotiveloansarewherewecouldseedelinquencies

increaseandwearestartingtoseeanuptickgiventhestrainontheconsumer.AnamewelikeisRBC.Theyhaveconsistentunderwritingstandardsthroughoutthecycle.Theyhaveastrongwealth

managementfranchise,whichisoneofthemostattractivepartsofthebusinessasit’sahigherROE,higherfeeincome,lowercapitalintensityplatform.Plus,theyhavethestrongestdepositfranchisewhichlowersoverallcostoffunding.

Whatisyourperspectiveonconsumerstocksasweenter2025?

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Shah:We’vebeencautiousaboutdiscretionaryspending,particularlybig-ticketitems.CompaniesinthatcamplikeBRPorCanadianTire

faceheadwindsandlackcatalysts.Conversely,thereareopportunities

wheretheconsumeristradingdownand/orlookingforvalue.DollaramaandLoblawarenamesthatlookcompelling.

Will,whichsectorsdoyoufindarethemostattractiverightnow?

Will:It’sreallyastockspecificmarket.TheS&P/TSXCompositeIndexistradingnearthemidpointofitshistoricalvaluationrange.Ontheonehand,thissuggestsmultipleexpansionispossibleifdeclininginterestratesleadtocontinuedmoneyflowsintoequities.But,ontheother

hand,slowinggrowthinearningsmayserveasanoffset.

What’stherisk/rewardprofilerightnowfrom

yourperspective?(WeexploreresourcesfromathematicperspectivewithBenoitGervaisinthispublication.)

Will:Attheendof2024we’reseeingageopoliticalriskpremiumpricedintocertaincommodities,particularlyoilandgold.Oilis

likelytoremainrangeboundgiventhedemand/supplydynamic.Demandgrowthhassoftenedin2024,particularlyinChina,

butpolicymakershaverecentlyannouncedstimuluseffortstostrengthentheireconomy.

What’syourviewongold?

Will:Declininginterestrates,continuedgeopoliticaluncertainly,

strongerenergypricesandaweakerUSdollararesupportiveofgoldprices.Buthighpriceswilleventuallyconstraindemand,whetherthatbefromindividualinvestorsorcentralbanks.

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Konstantin,whatareyourthoughtsaboutthecentralbankpolicyintheUS?

Konstantin:It’saverydifferentsituationversusCanada.Inflationisrunninghigherandislookingstickier,especiallywithrespecttoservices.TheFedhasexpressedconcernaboutthelabour

market,buttheeconomyisstillconsistentlycreatingjobs,albeitataslowerpace.

Isthereariskofcuttingtoomuchandreignitinginflation?

Konstantin:Yes,Ithinkit’sariskandthat’swhytheFeddoesn’tneedtobeasaggressiveasthemarkethasbeenpricingin.Themoreyoucut,thegreaterthechanceofinflationcomingback.

Hadiza,whatcanweexpectfromEurope’seconomyin2025?

Hadiza:EuroperepresentsastarkcontrasttotheUSaswell.

Financialconditionsarerestrictivefortheconsumersandcorporates,andthereisaneedforlowerrates.Ifeconomicdatasoftens

furtheratthestartof2025,theEuropeanCentralBankmayadoptamoreaccommodativestanceifcoreinflationremainswellbelowthe2%target.

What’sholdingbackgrowthincoreEurope?

Hadiza:Germany’sheavyrelianceonChinafortradeisakeyfactor.

Asoneofitslargesttradingpartners,China’sslowergrowthhasbeenadragonGermany’sexports.However,Germanyhasfiscalspace

tostimulateitseconomy,andthereisgrowingpoliticalpressure

tomoveawayfromitsfiscalconservatism.That’sincontrastto

France,whichhasafragilefiscalsituationandisatriskofaratingsdowngradein2025.

Let’smoveovertoAsiaandtalkaboutJapan,whichisactuallyraisingrates.

Hadiza:Japanstruggledwithpersistentlyhighinflationthrough2024,particularlyduetoimportedinflationandaweakeryen.TheBank

ofJapanislikelytocontinueitsgradualrate-hikingcycleinto2025.

Japan’spolicyshiftcouldhavebroaderimplicationsforglobalmarkets—especiallyiftheJapaneseyenappreciatesmateriallyoryieldson

Japanesegovernmentbondsrise,aswesawinAugust2024.

Whatabouttheemergingmarkets?

Hadiza:Iremainoptimisticaboutselectemergingmarkets,particularlyinAsia.Wecouldseedollardepreciationin2025astheFedcuts

rates,whichwouldprovideatailwindforemergingmarketcurrencies.Second,Chinesestimulusmeasures,particularlyfiscalandcredit

support,couldhaveknock-oneffectsfortrade-dependentneighbours.

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Katherine,howshouldwethinkabouttheUSequitylandscape?

Katherine:MarketsaretellingustheFedhassofarbeensuccessfulinthemitigationofrecessionrisks.Fallingrates,ahealthylabour

marketandslowerinflationshouldprovideaconstructivebackdropforstocks.

WhatareyouseeingintermsoftheUSconsumer?

Katherine:Aggregateconsumerspendinghassurprisedtothe

upside.WealthierhouseholdscontinuetodowellandIthinkthiswillcontinueinto2025.Onthelowerendoftheincomescale,wecan

seeclearsignsofretrenchmentandtradedown.RecentmanagementcommentariesfromMcDonald’sandDollarGeneralcorroboratethe

viewthatconsumersarefocusingmoreonessentialsandeschewingdiscretionaryitems.

Whatareyoulookingforinastockgiventhisbackdrop?

Katherine:We’relookingforcompanyspecificstorieswherethe

returnsmorethanoffsettheidiosyncraticriskbecauseit’sthese

returnsthataddvaluetoaportfolio.TheUSequitylandscape

hasbecomeastockpicker’smarketasrateshaverisenfromthe

COVIDlows.Walmartisdoingverywell,asisCostco,whichismoreupmarketbuthardlyaluxuryname.Yet,otherhouseholdnames

suchasStarbucks,NikeandLululemonhavestruggled.

Richard,asavalueinvestor,howdoyoufeelabouttheconsumerspace?

Richard:Welikeconsumercyclicals.I’llshareexampleslinkedto

housingbecausethat’saspacewelike.Millennialsarenowinthe

familyformationlifephaseandalsointheirhigh-incomeearnings

years.There’sashortageofhomesintheUS.WelikeDRHorton,

whichisaleaderinentrylevelhomes.Thestockhasalowvaluation,andthecompanywillbenefitfromstrongerdemandasratesfall.Wealsothinklowerrateswillspurgreaterhomeimprovementspending.ThisisinpartwhywelikeLowes,whichhaslaggeditsmainrival,

HomeDepot,andtradesatanattractivevaluation.

Whatelsedoyoulike?

Richard:Youmaybesurprisedtolearnwearefindingvalue

opportunitiesintechnologystockslinkedtoAI.AstheAIapplicationbuild-outcontinues,manycompanieswillneedgreaterprocessingpower,networkingequipmentandstorage.We’refindingstocks

exposedtotheAIspendingcycleinnetworkingandstoragetradingatlessthan10xearnings.WesternDigitalisanamewelike.The

companymanufacturestheharddiskdrivesneededindatacentrestostoretheenormousamountsofdatafeedinglargelanguage

models(LLMs).

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Seamus,whatareyourthoughtsabouttheinvestmentopportunitiesinEuropeforthenext12months?

Seamus:Germany’seconomicmodel,whichreliedonimporting

cheapenergyformanufacturinggoodsforexporttoChina,hasbeendisruptedatbothends.Francesawitseconomicmomentumslowinthesecondhalfof2024withpoliticaluncertaintylikelytopersistinto2025andcontinuetoweighonsentiment.Theperipheraleconomieshaveperformedmuchbetteronarelativebasis,butultimately

Europeneedsimprovedperformancefromthecorecountriesfor

theregiontogrowattrend.Yetvaluationsareatrelativelylowlevelsacrosstheregion.

Arethereanybrightspots?

Seamus:TheUK.Wehaveacombinationofslowinginflation,fallinginterestratesandrisingrealwages,whilehousingisfirm.Equity

valuationsareasignificantdiscounttolong-termaveragesand

stabilizationonthepoliticalfrontiscreatingopportunity.Wewantdomesticexposure,soweownsomeofthehomebuilders.TaylorWimpeyissuchacompany,anditisbenefitingfromimproving

affordabilityasmortgageratesfallandrealwagesrise.

Whichsectorslookattractive?

Seamus:Weseepocketsofopportunityinhealthcare,consumer

namesandfinancials.Inhealthcare,weholdUCB,whichhasmade

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significantstridesindevelopingtreatmentsforpsoriasis.Ourresearch,alongwithinsightsfrommedicalprofessionalswe’veconsulted,

hasstrengthenedourconfidenceinthepotentialofthisopportunity.

Intheconsumerspace,Inditex,theparentcompanyofbrandssuchasZara,standsoutforitshighlyefficientsourcingmodel,whichallows

themtodeliverfashionableyetaffordableclo