2024年中期全球展望報(bào)告（英文版）-貝萊德

2024

MidyearGlobal

Outlook

Wavesoftransformation

BlackRock

Investment

BlackROCK.

Institute

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

BIIM0724U/M-3698250-1/16

2024MidyearOutlook

JeanBoivin

Head—BlackRock

InvestmentInstitute

PhilippHildebrand

ViceChairman—BlackRock

WeiLi

GlobalChiefInvestmentStrategist—BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

VivekPaul

GlobalHeadofPortfolioResearch—BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

ChristopherKaminker

HeadofSustainable

InvestmentResearchandAnalytics–BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

Contents

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Focus

Summary

AIbuildout

GlobalelectionsInfrastructure

DemographicsJapan

ReadytoadaptViewssummary

Intro

Transformationahead?

Weighingscenarios

Themes

Gettingreal

LeaningintoriskSpottingthenextwave

TheworldcouldbeundergoingatransformationonparwiththeIndustrial

Revolution-thankstoapotentialsurgeininvestmentinartificialintelligence

(AI),thelow-carbontransitionandarewiringofglobalsupplychains.Butthe

speed,sizeandimpactofthatinvestmentishighlyuncertain.Anditcomes

againstanunusualeconomicbackdroppost-pandemic:stickyinflation,higherinterestrates,weakertrendgrowthandhighpublicdebt.Wethinktakingriskbyleaningintothetransformationandadaptingastheoutlookchangeswillbekey.

Thenewregimeofgreatermacroandmarketvolatilityhastakenhold,shapedbysupply

constraintslikeshrinkingworking-age

populations.Theresult?Higherinflationand

interestratesamidweakergrowthrelativetothepre-pandemicera–andelevatedpublicdebt.

Butnowinvestmentopportunitiestranscendthemacrobackdrop.Weseewavesoftransformationonthehorizon,drivenbyfive

megaforces

–or

structuralshifts.Weseethreeofthemspurring

majorcapitalspending:theracetobuildoutAI,

thelow-carbontransitionandtherewiringof

supplychains.Thesize,speedandimpactofthatinvestmentishighlyuncertain,butwethinkit

couldtransformeconomiesandmarketslikepasttechnologicalrevolutions.Togetherwith

BlackRock’sportfoliomanagers,wedesignedfivestarklydifferentscenariostoassessthenear-

termoutlook,recognizingitcouldquicklychange.

Beforethepandemic,lowinflationallowedcentralbankstoslashinterestratesandmakemassive

assetpurchasestobuoytheeconomy.That

boostedthefinancialeconomy–andhelpeddrive

gainsacrossbondsandstocks.Inthisnew

regime,therealeconomymattersmore.OurfirstthemeisGettingreal.Weseethebiggest

opportunitiesintherealeconomyasinvestmentflowsintoinfrastructure,energysystemsand

technology–andthepeopledrivingthem.

Wethinkcompaniesmayneedtorevamp

businessmodelsandinvesttostaycompetitive.Forinvestors,itmeanscompanyfundamentalswillmatterevenmore.Thegapbetweenwinnersandloserscouldbewiderthanever,inourview.

ThatdispersioncreatesopportunitiesandiswhyoursecondthemeisLeaningintorisk.Theanswertoahighlyuncertainoutlookisnotsimply

reducingrisk.Welookforinvestmentsthatcandowellacrossscenariosandleanintothecurrent

mostlikelyone.Forus,that’saconcentratedAIscenariowhereahandfulofAIwinnerscankeepdrivingstocks.

Westandreadytoadaptasandwhenanother

scenario–potentiallysuddenly–becomesmorelikelyasthetransformationunfolds.SoourthirdthemeisSpottingthenextwave.Thisisabout

beingdynamicandreadytooverhaulasset

allocationswhenoutcomes–andinvestmentopportunities-canbevastlydifferent.

Investmentimplications:Westayoverweight

U.S.stocksandtheAIthemeonasix-to12-

monthview.OuroverweighttoJapanesestocksisoneofourhighest-convictionviews.Welike

incomeinshort-termbondsandcredit.Andweseeprivatemarketsasawaytotapintotheearlywinnersandtheinfrastructureneededforthe

investmentboomahead.

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Intro

Transformation

ahead?

Wethinktheworldcouldbe

undergoingwavesoftransformationonascalerarelyseeninhistory.

Megaforcesaredrivingthis

transformationandarestartingto

unleashmassiveinvestmentintotherealeconomy:infrastructure,energysystems,advancedtechnology–andpeople.Wethinkthevolumeof

investmentcouldbeonaparwithpasttechnologicalrevolutions–

reshapingmarketsandeconomies.Seethechart.Yetthespeedand

scaleofthatinvestment,andits

potentialimpactoneconomy-wideproductivity,arehighlyuncertain.

ConsiderAI.TheracetoscaleupAI

capabilitiesisalreadyspurring

majorcapitalspending.Arangeof

estimatesseeinvestmentinAIdatacentersrisingby60-100%annuallyincomingyears.Yetitisdifficultto

pindownexactamounts,eveninthefirstphaseoftheAIbuildout.Itwill

dependonanyresourceconstraints–likedifficultymeetingAI’senergy

needsontopofalreadygrowing

demand,includingforelectrification.Innovationsincomputingand

energycouldeasethoseconstraints.

Inasecondphase,wethink

investmentwillbroadenouttofirmsseekingtoharnessAI–withthe

amountdependingonAI’sbuildoutandadoption.Itispossiblethatthisallresultsinathirdphaseofbroadproductivitygains.Seepages8-9.

Thelow-carbontransitionisalsospurringmajorinvestment.OurBlackRockInvestmentInstitute

TransitionScenarioestimates

energysysteminvestmentwillhit$3.5trillionperyearthisdecade.

Risinggeopoliticalfragmentation

alsoimpliesinvestment:countries

areprioritizingnationalsecurityovereconomicefficiency.Reconfiguringsupplychainsrequiresinvestment.

Uncertaintyaroundthespeedand

scaleofcominginvestment,plusanunusualeconomicbackdropmarkedbysupplyconstraints,makeittoughtogaugeexactlywheretheworldisheadinglongerterm.Butweseethetransformationevolvingthrough

distinctphases,likeadvancesintheAIbuildoutfirstandbroadadoptionlater.Thisprogressioncanhelp

providedirection–enablingusto

evolveassetallocationsontheway.

Megacapexcoming

TotalcumulativecontributionstoGDP

CapitalspendingTotalfactorproductivity

AI&low-carbon

transition

2024-2030s

Informationand

communicationtech

1970s-2010s

Electricity1880s-1940s

Steam(UK)1760s-1840s

?

0102030

Percentagepoints

Charttakeaway:AIandthelow-carbontransitioncouldspurhistoricallylargecapitalspending-andinamuchshorterspaceoftimethanprevioustechnologicalrevolutions.

Forwardlookingestimatesmaynotcometopass.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,June2024with

datafromCrafts(2021).Notes:ThechartshowscumulativecontributionofpreviousU.S.technologies

(except“steam”)toGDPovertheperiodsindicated.Theestimatesforinformationandcommunicationtech,electricityandsteamaretakenfromhistoriceconomicliteratureasinCrafts(2021).Thespendneededforartificialintelligence(AI)andthetransitionisaBIIestimatebasedonexternalresearchondatacenter

investmentrequirementsandtheBIITransitionScenario(forprofessionalinvestors

here

).OtherrevolutionstookplaceoverdecadessoourestimatesforAIandtransition-relatedspendassumesanoptimisticcaseoverashortspanoftime.

Weseeapossibleinvestmentboom

aheadthatcouldtransformeconomiesandmarkets.Butthespeed,scaleandimpactofthatinvestmentisunclear.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

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ADMASTER

Scenarios

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Weighingnear-termscenarios

Weusescenariostohelpidentifywhere

economiesandmarketsmaybeheadedonasix-to12-monthhorizon.Theyhelpputparametersaroundverydifferentstatesoftheworld–eveniftheydon’tcapturethe

manypotentialoutcomesbeyondthathorizon.

WeworkedwithportfoliomanagersacrossBlackRocktodevelopfive,distinctscenarios

forthenear-termoutlook.Weseetwo

scenarioswhereequitiescandowell:one

withaconcentratedgroupofwinnersinAI,evenwithatoughmacrobackdrop,and

anotherwhereAI-drivengrowthbecomes

morebroad-based,leadingtoproductivitygainsandsharpratecuts.Thetwohard

economiclandingscenariosdifferon

whethercentralbankscancometothe

rescuewithratecuts.Thefifthisoneof

subduedgrowthandstubborninflation,

whereinflationprovessticky,keeping

centralbankpolicyrateshigher.Thearrowsontherightshowhowtheassumedmarketimpactcandivergesharplyacrossthese

scenarios.

WeleanintotheconcentratedAIcase,

reflectingourviewthatAIvaluationsare

rootedinsolidearnings.Yetwestandreadytopivot–andourapproachgivesusa

roadmaptogaugewhenanotherscenariobecomesmorelikely.Wethinkexpertiseinidentifyingthesescenarioshiftscouldhelpinvestorsdeliveroutsizedreturns.

U.S.returns

Stocks

Bonds

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

AreAIvaluationsahead

offundamentals?

Willoverallyieldsbehigherthancurrentmarketpricing?

Willgrowthbestructurally

No

No

weakerthanbeforethepandemic?

Willtherebearecessioninthenext12months?

Yes

Highrates,hardlanding

Stickyinflationrulesoutratecuts,and

strongdemandcouldtriggerfurtherhikes.Growthslowssharply.AIvaluationshithard.

ConcentratedAI

AI-drivengrowthboostnotenoughto

offsetotherstructuraldrags.Inflation

pressureisongoingandpolicyratesstayhighforlonger.

Subduedgrowth,stubborninflation

Growthslowstoalowertrendpace,

inflationisstickyabovetargetandpolicyratesstayhigher.

Broadproductivitygains(AIandcapexboom)

AI-drivengrowthisbroadbased,liftingpotentialoutput.Inflationismutedandpolicyratesarecutsharply.

Rescuedhardlanding

Ratehikesoverwhelmabroad-basedAI-

drivengrowthboost.Inflationfallsbelow

target.Centralbanksdeliverdeepratecuts.

Theopinionsexpressedaresubjecttochangeatanytimeduetochangesinmarketoreconomicconditions.Thismaterialrepresentsanassessmentofthemarketenvironmentata

specifictimeandisnotintendedtobeaforecastoffutureeventsoraguaranteeoffutureresults.Sources:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,July2024.Notes:Ourfivescenariosherecanberepresentedasnodesondifferentpathways.ThearrowsindicateourexpectationforU.S.equityandTreasuryreturnsineachscenario,astwoexamples.Twoarrowsrepresentsthatalargerrelativemoveisexpectedinthisscenariothanasinglearrow.WeonlyshowU.S.equitiesandTreasuriesbuthaverunthisanalysisacrossseveralassetclasses.Forillustrative

purposesonly.

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Theme1

Gettingreal

Weseemuchofthepotentiallargeinvestmentflowingintothepipesandpeopleoftheeconomy.ThinknewdatacenterspoweringAI

models,computerchips,solarfarms,superbatteries,factories,logistics

centers–androads,bridges,

schoolsandhospitalsincountrieswithgrowingpopulations.It’sanewwaveofinvestmentintothereal

economytransformingeconomiesandmarkets.It’saworldwhere

companyfundamentalswillmatterevenmore,wethink.

Thisisabigchangefromthepre-

2020dominanceofthefinancial

economy.Steadilyexpandingglobalproductioncapacityandgrowing

workforceskeptmacrovolatilityatbay:whenevergrowthfaltered,

centralbankscouldcometothe

rescuewithoutfearinganinflationflare-up.Thisstabilityreduced

uncertaintyandallowedcentral

bankstosignaltheirintentionswellinadvance.Suchafavorable

backdropbuoyedmostcompanies,leavinglittleroomfordifferentiation

amongbusinessesandstock

pickers.Wethinkthateraisover.

Astherealeconomytakesoverfromthefinancialeconomy,wethink

investorsshouldactivelypositionforwavesoftransformationlikewehaverarelyseenbefore,wethink.

Weseewidespreadopportunitiesforcompaniesthatinnovateand

positionthemselvestotake

advantageofthistransformation.

Thatincludesbuildingcapabilities

toharnessAI,forexample.Spottingwinnerswillrequiredeepinsightson

thetechnologybeingdeveloped,itsapplicationsandthepotential

disruptionitentails.

Weareseeingthatplayoutnowwithcompaniesbuildingstrongcash

flowsfromtherealeconomythankstotheirdominantpositions.Nvidia’spricesurgeshowshowfastwinnerscanemerge–andberewarded.

Companieswhofallbehindarelikelytostruggleinthisenvironment–

partlybecausecentralbankswon’tbeabletorespondeasilywithlowerratesifgrowthweakens,inourview.Wearenotgoingbacktoatimeofcheapandplentifulcapital.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

NvidiaandtheAImoment

Yearstogofrom$10billiontocurrentmarketcapitalization

Trillion(U.S.dollar)

3

2

1

0

Nvidia

Apple

Amazon

Tesla

Microsoft

Meta

Alphabet

051015202530

Years

Charttakeaway:Nvidia’ssurgereflectsthebiginvestmentexpectationsasaresultoftheriseofAI.

Thisinformationisnotintendedasarecommendationtoinvestinanyparticularassetclassorstrategyorasapromise–orevenestimate–offutureperformance.Pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffuture

results.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromBloomberg,July2024.Notes:Thechartshowshowlongittookforthe“magnificentseven”stockstogofrom$10billiontoitscurrentmarketcapitalization.

Investmentimplications

?Welikeinfrastructureandindustrial

companiesexposedtotheinvestmentboom.

?High-for-longerpolicyratespromptsusto

favorqualityinbothfixedincomeandequities.

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Theme2

Leaning

Thetransformationcouldtakeanyofseveralverydifferentpaths:itcouldleadtoabroadproductivityboomortoAIwinnersbecomingovervalued,forexample.Investorsmayfeel

temptedtositonthesidelinesand

awaitclarity–especiallygiventhe

attractivereturnsfromholdingcash.

Yetweseebiggerrewardsfor

leaningintoriskinthisenvironment.Wethinkmarketsarelikelytokeep

rewardingperceivedAIwinnersinthenextsixto12months–

regardlessofwherethe

transformationleadslongerterm.

Wethinkinvestorsshouldtakeriskmoredeliberatelynow,across

multipledimensions.First,considerthetimehorizon.Wehavemost

convictionaboutthenearterm.WethinklargetechnologycompaniesinvestingheavilyintheAIbuildout,chipproducersandfirmssupplyingkeyinputslikeenergyandutilitiescankeepdoingwell.That’swhyweleanintotheconcentratedAI

scenario.Seepages8-9.Beyond

tech,welikesectorssuchas

industrialsandmaterialsthatarealsosettobenefitinthenearterm.

intorisk

Second,bedeliberateinchoosing

thetypeofriskexposure.Afew

winner-takes-allcompanieshave

drivenU.S.equitygainsthisyear.Wedon’tseetheconcentrationofequityperformanceasaproblemasmegacapshavedeliveredonearnings.Yetweactivelychoosetoleanmore

heavilyintoAIthanbenchmarkindexweights.TwobigU.S.techfirmseachhaveamarketcapitalizationlarger

thantheentireUKorGerman

benchmarkstockindexes.Seethechart.

Third,bedeliberateaboutblendingdifferentsourcesofreturnacross

publicandprivatemarkets.Wethinkbothactivestrategiesandprivate

marketsplayabiggerrolenow–andseeprivatemarketsasawaytogainaccesstotheearlyjourneysoffirmssettowininapotentiallyrapid

transformation.Wealsoseebroaderopportunitiesinprivatemarkets

thanpublicones.That’sespeciallytrueinaworldwhereelevateddebtlimitstheabilityofgovernmentto

investininfrastructure.Still,private

marketsarecomplexandnotsuitableforallinvestors.

Trillions(U.S.dollar)

Companieslargerthancountrystockmarkets

MarketcapitalizationofselectU.S.companiesandstockindexes,2005-24

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2

1

0

2005201020152020

MicrosoftAppleUKGermany

Charttakeaway:SomeU.S.companystocksarenowlargerinvaluethantheentirebenchmarkindexofsomenations,showinghowtheycandominatebroadindexexposures.Thisemphasizeswhyinvestorsmustbedeliberatewiththeirrisk-taking.

Thisinformationisnotintendedasarecommendationtoinvestinanyparticularassetclassorstrategyorasapromise–orevenestimate–offutureperformance.Itisnotpossibletoinvestdirectlyinanindex.Index

performancedoesnotaccountforfees.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromLSEG

Datastream,July2024.Notes:ThechartshowsthemarketcapitalizationofApple,MicrosoftandtheUKandGermanstockmarkets.IndexproxiesusedforUKandGermanequitymarkets:MSCIUKandMSCIGermany.

Investmentimplications

?Weleanintoanabove-benchmarkexposuretotheAItheme.Wealsolikesectorssuchastech,industrials,energyandmaterials.

?Thisisanenvironmentthatfavorsprivatemarketsandblendingsourcesofreturns.

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Theme3

Spottingthe

nextwave

Weareinaworldwheremultiple,

starklydifferent–or“polyfurcated”–outcomesarepossible.Thismeanswecannolongerviewtheoutlookintermsofslightdeviationsaroundacentraloutcome.Weneedtolookatwholenewwaysofhowthewavesoftransformationcouldreshapethe

economyandassetreturnsahead.

Distributionsareausefulwayto

thinkaboutthis.Acentralbasecasemeantasingledistributionwas

sufficientinthepastfordescribing

potentialoutcomes.Wethink

lookingattheworldinmultiple

distributions–withverylittleoverlapbetweenthem–isabetterwayof

characterizingthepossiblescaleofthewavesoftransformationahead.Weshowtwodistinctbranchesfor

U.S.GDPwithdistributionsaroundthemtoillustratethis.Seethechart.

Diverginggrowthpicturesarejustoneexampleoftheverydifferentwaysinwhichtheeconomycouldreconfigure.Atransformation

potentiallyonaparwithpast

technologicalrevolutionscouldseeentiresectorsrevamped.

Itcouldmeanaworldthatlooksverydifferentfromthelowgrowth,low

inflationenvironmentthat

dominatedinthedecadeaftertheglobalfinancialcrisis.Such

profoundchangescouldmakeitnecessarytorethinkwhatalong-termanchorforassetallocationlookslike.

Whatdoesthismeaninpractice?

Investorsshouldlookforwherethenextwaveofinvestmentopportunity

maycome–andbereadyto

overhaulportfolioallocationsto

captureit.Thisisnotonlyaboutthenextsixmonthsoryear,butaboutrecognizingthepossibilityofvery

differentfuturestatesoftheworld.OnthenextpagewelayoutthreephasesofAIevolutiontohelptrackthepathofglobaltransformation.

Webelieveanactiveapproachiskeyaswefaceverydifferent

statesoftheworld.”

HelenJewell

ChiefInvestmentOfficerEMEA,

FundamentalEquities

–BlackRock

Starklydifferentoutcomes

StylizedviewoftwodifferentU.S.GDPoutcomes

Broadproductivity

boom

RealGDP

Constrainedgrowth

201520202025203020352040

Charttakeaway:Investingtodaymeansthinkingabouthowtheworldcanlookstarklydifferentinthefuture–with

completelydifferentoutcomes–ratherthanconsideringonlydeviationsaroundacentraloutcome.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.Forwardlookingestimatesmaynotcometopass.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,July2024.Notes:ThechartshowsastylizedviewofhowU.S.GDPcouldplayoutunderdifferent

scenarioswheregrowthislowerthanitwaspre-pandemic,constrainedbyworkforceaging,andanotherwheregrowthisboostedoverthenextdecadebyanAI-drivenproductivityboom,beforefallingbelowpre-pandemicgrowthrates.Weshowonestandarddeviationbandsaroundthosestylizedoutcomes.

Investmentimplications

?Awiderangeofoutcomesmeansstanding

readytooverhaulportfolioallocationsto

captureopportunitiesfromprofoundchanges.

?Investorsmayneedtorethinkwhatalong-termanchorforassetallocationlookslike.

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Focus-AI

AI’srapid

buildoutnow…

TheAIjuggernaut–stilllargelya

U.S.story-haspoweredtheS&P

500thisyear.WethinkAIiscentraltothetransformation–andcouldmakeupalargepartofthecominginvestmentwave.WebelieveAIcankeepdrivingreturnsacrossmost

outcomes.Wedon’tseeatechbubble:earningsand

fundamentalssupportcurrent

valuations.Caseinpoint:Nvidia’sforwardearningshavekeptpace

withitsrocketingsharepricesofar.WethinkanunderstandingofhowAIcouldevolvefromhereiskey.Weseethreedistinctphases.

1AIbuildout

AIreliesonvastcomputingpower,sosomelargetechnologyfirmsareracingtoinvestindatacenterstosecurethatpower.We’reatthe

startofthisphase.Earlywinners

arealreadyemerging,including

thosetechfirms,chipproducers

andfirmssupplyingkeyinputslikeenergy,utilities,materialsandrealestate.Yetthebuildoutfaces

challenges,notablywhetherthepowergridcangrowfastenough.

AI’spowerneedsareexpectedto

growincomingyears,evenwith

furtherenergyefficiency.Seethe

chart.Policyandregulationcould

putthebrakesonbuildout,too.Forexample,policymakersmaystepinifdatacentergrowthpushesuplocalenergyprices.Andrulesontheuse

ofAIcouldimpactadoption.Supplybottleneckscouldalsoslowprogressasdemandgrowsformetalsand

mineralslikecopper,aluminumandlithium–alreadyinhighdemandasinputsforthelow-carbontransition.

2AIinvestmentbroadens

HereweseeinvestmentbroadeningtofirmslookingtoharnessAI.We

seesomeofthatalready,especiallyinhealthcare.Itandothersectors

likefinancialsandcommunication

servicescouldbenefit,potentially

liftingeconomicgrowth.Yetboth

phases1and2couldbeinflationary:buildingAIandretoolingcreates

extrademandbeforeanysupply-sideorproductivitybenefitsarise.Wedon’tthinkmarketsorcentralbanksappreciatethatyet.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.FOR

INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

Massiveenergyandinvestmentneeds

DatacenterpowerdemandasashareoftotalU.S.demand,2022-2030

Shareoftotalpowerdemand

16%14%12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2%0%

EstimatesIEAestimate

20222024202620282030

Charttakeaway:ThepowerneedsfordatacentersthatfeedAIapplicationslikelargelanguagemodelsaresettogrow–

butthepaceisuncertain.Meetingthoseneedscouldrequiremassiveinvestmentinpowergridsandrenewableenergy.

Forwardlookingestimatesmaynotcometopass.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,International

EnergyAgency(IEA),GoldmanSachs,BGIF,BankofAmerica,Schneider,Semianalytics,Bernstein,McKinsey,BostonConsultingGroup,andBlackRock'sFundamentalEquitiesteam,May2024.Notes:ThechartshowsdatacenterpowerdemandasashareoftotalU.S.powerdemandin2022.Datacenterpowerdemand

includesthosefromtraditionaldatacentersandartificialintelligence(AI)computing/dedicatedAIdatacentersandexcludesconsumptionfromcryptocurrenciesanddatatransmissionnetworks.

Investmentimplications

?AI’sbuildoutcouldinitiallybeinflationaryasdemandforenergyandcommoditiessurges.

?Earlywinnerscouldincludelargetechfirms,chipmakersandenergyandutilityfirms–

beforebenefitsexpandtoothersectors.

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Focus–AI

…couldboost

productivitylater

3Productivityboom

Inthisveryuncertainphase,AIcouldenableeconomiesto

producemorewiththesame

amountofcapital,labor–and

energyasAI-enabledinnovation

potentiallybalancesoutAI’spowerneeds.Technologicalinnovations

havedonethatbefore.Thechart

showsbroadcomputeradoption

droveupaverageoutputperhour

byover1percentagepointfor

nearlyadecade.AIcouldeventuallyhelpeconomiesgrowfasterand

easeinflationpressure,inourview.

ThesizeandspreadofproductivitygainsfromAIareuncertain.CapitalcouldbemisallocatedintheAI

race.EstimatesofAI’sboostto

annualU.S.growthrangefrom0.1to1.5percentagepoints.Wefind

thelowerendmorerealistic–itwilldependonsectoradoptionand

costsavings.YetthesegainscanonlycomeafterAI