花旗-2025年全年財富展望（英）-2025-03-宏觀大勢

2025

WEALTHOUTLOOK

growthamiddiscord:strategiesfora“rule-breaking”expansion

wherewealthhappens

INVESTMENTPRODUCTS:NOTFDICINSURED·NOTCDICINSURED

NOTGOVERNMENTINSURED·NOBANKGUARANTEE·MAYLOSEVALUE

CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

foreword

WelcometoWealthOutlook,oursemiannualflagshipreportexploringkeyeconomicandmarkettrendsforyourportfoliointhecomingyearandbeyond.IamgratefultoStevenWieting,ourChiefEconomistandChiefInvestmentStrategist,andthecolleaguesworldwidewhohavecontributedtheirinsights.

Weseetheglobaleconomyashaving“brokentherules”inrecentyears,givenitscontinuedgrowthdespiteusuallyreliablerecessionsignalsintheU.S.andelsewhere.Consideringthepaceofinnovation,productivitygainsandrisingglobalconsumerdemand,thisresiliencecameasnosurprisetous.Wehaveconsistentlyarguedforkeepingportfoliosfullyinvestedandpositionedforanongoingrally.

Whilemarketvolatilitymaypickup,webelieveeconomicgrowthwillbesustainedgloballyin2025and2026.Therolloutofartificialintelligencemaybringincreasingbenefitstoindustriesbeyondtechnology.Risingcapitalspendingcanhelpsupportthis“rule-breaking”expansionandthemarkets’upwardpath.

Naturally,thereremainmanychallenges.ThepotentialfornewU.S.tariffsmayintensifytradetensions.Discordantpoliticsandgeopoliticsmaypersist,withscopeforunpredictabledevelopmentsintheMiddleEast,Ukraineandelsewhere.HeavygovernmentborrowingintheU.S.andothernationscouldyetunnervethebondmarkets.

3

Whilevaluationshaverisensince2022’slows,weseepotentialopportunitiesacrossassetclassesglobally.Webelievethiscallsforabroadeningofportfoliohorizons,especiallyforthemanyinvestorswhoseallocationsareoverlyconcentrated.Wealsoexpectthatholdingalotofcashwillremainunrewarding.

AsyouexploreWealthOutlook,pleaseaskyourrelationshipteamwhatitmaymeanforyourportfolio.Ourglobalinvestmentplatformcontainsmanystrategiestohelpyoupursuethepotentialopportunitieswesee,whilealsoseekingtomitigaterisks.

AtCitiWealth,werecognizeyou,ourclients,astheWorld’sChangemakers,whoseideas,passionsandpursuitsarereshapingbusinesses,communitiesandsocietyasawhole.Ourmissionisnotonlytohelpyoumanageyourwealth,butalsotoinspireandenableitscreationbyconnectingyoutoopportunitiesacrossCiti’svastglobalnetwork.

ThankyouforchoosingCitiWealth.Welookforwardtoguidingyouonyourfinancialjourneythisyearandbeyond.

AndySieg

HEADOFWEALTH

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CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

contributors

WealthOutlook2025wasprepared

byTheOfficeoftheChiefInvestment

StrategistincollaborationwithcolleaguesfromCitiInvestmentManagementand

ourAlternativeInvestmentsteam

5

CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

OURGLOBALTEAM-INSIGHTS

StevenWieting

ChiefInvestmentStrategistandChiefEconomist

JorgeAmato

HeadofLatinAmericaInvestmentStrategy

DavideAndaloro

SeniorPortfolioManager

CitiInvestmentManagement

StefanBackhus

HeadofAlternativesStrategy

CeciliaChen

GlobalEquityStrategy

ChrisDistaulo

PortfolioManager

CitiInvestmentManagement

JosephFiorica

HeadofGlobalEquityStrategy

BruceHarris

HeadofFixedIncomeInvestmentStrategy

JoeKaplan

SeniorFixedIncomeInvestmentStrategist

PaisanLimratanamongkol

HeadofStrategicAssetAllocationandQuantitativeResearch

GuillaumeMenuet

HeadofEurope,MiddleEastandAfricaInvestmentStrategy

DanielO’Donnell

HeadofAlternativesand

InvestmentManagerSolutions

KenPeng

HeadofAsiaPacificInvestmentStrategy

DeborahQuerub

HeadofDigitalAssets

CharlieReinhard

HeadofNorthAmericaInvestmentStrategy

HarlinSinghUrofsky

HeadofSustainableInvesting

MalcolmSpittler

InvestmentStrategistandSeniorU.S.Economist

MichaelStein

HeadofLiquidStrategies

HedgeFundandTraditional

CatherineTurullols

SustainableInvestingSpecialistforNorthAmerica

DianeWehner

SeniorPortfolioManagerEquitiesCitiInvestmentManagement

NathanWeinstein

GlobalHealthcareAnalyst

CitiInvestmentManagement

KerryWhite

HeadofPortfolioSolutionsCitiInvestmentManagement

MichaelYannell

HeadofResearch

HedgeFunds,FixedIncomeandCredit

ShuZhang

HeadoftheInvestmentLab

PRODUCTION

GeraAina

InvestmentsMarketingProjectManager

NicoleD’Angelo

HeadofCIOContent&Insights

JamieMaran

CIOContent&InsightsAnalyst

DominicPicarda

Editor

6

CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

foreword

theworldin2025andbeyond

Growthamiddiscord:strategiesfora“rule-breaking”expansion

Ourpositioninginfographic

Thelong-termviewforassetclasses:moderateoptimism

Thedollarizationofcryptocurrencies

9

15

16

19

coreportfolioinsights

Stayingthecourse:broadeningportfoliohorizons

Equities:shiftingleadershipinanongoingbullmarket

Fixedincome:creditatthecore

Complementingcoreportfolioswithprivateassetclasses

Thecaseforhedgefundsinsuitableandqualified

investors’coreportfolios

Beyondcoreportfolios:opportunisticinvesting

24

27

32

36

42

46

unstoppabletrends

AI:gettingmorereal

Climate:investingininnovativetechnologies

Healthcare’sprescriptionforlongevity

PositioningportfoliosamidU.S.–Chinapolarization

53

57

61

63

CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

theworldin2025andbeyond

continuinggrowth

Theglobaleconomicexpansionhasdefiedrecessionarysignalsinrecentyears.Weexpectongoinggrowthin

2025and2026,withpotentialfurthergainsinglobalearnings.

potentialforlong-termreturns

Withmarketshavingrecoveredstronglysincetheirlowsoflate2022,valuationshaverisensomewhatacross

mostassetclasses.Nevertheless,ourten-yearreturnforecastsmakeusmoderatelyoptimistic.Bycontrast,webelieveholdingcashmayprovedisappointing.

discordandotherrisks

Tradetensionsandothergeopoliticaldiscordcould

triggerhighermarketvolatilityahead.Risksalso

includeU.S.overheatingandpocketsofhighvaluation.However,wedonotseeacaseforholdingexcesscash.

CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

growthamiddiscord:strategiesfora“rule-breaking”expansion

Withtheglobaleconomypotentiallysetforfurtherupside,wemakethecaseforportfoliosthatare

positionedforpotentialgrowthbutpreparedfortherisksofadiscordantworld.

keytakeaways

→Webelieveincontinuedglobalgrowthandrisingprofitsin2025

→Discordantgeopoliticsmaytriggermorevolatilityacrossmarkets

→Wemakethecaseforbroadeningportfoliohorizons,withpotentialinseveralassetclasses

→RisksincludebutarenotlimitedtoU.S.

overheating,aglobaltradewarandpocketsofhighvaluation

9

CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

Theglobaleconomyhasdefiedexpectationsinrecentyears.Forecastsofrecession

–backedupbyusuallyreliableindicators–cametonothing.Despitethesharpestandmostsynchronizedinterestrate–hikingcampaignbyglobalcentralbanksindecades,growthhasendured.CorporateprofitsintheU.S.recentlyreachednewhighs,withprofitselsewhereclosinginontheirformerpeak.

FIGURE1

U.S.output,employmentandincomekeptgrowingdespiterecessionsignals

RecessionLeadingEconomicIndicatorsCoincidentEconomicIndicators

15%

10%

Y/Y%Change

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

'60'65'70'75'80'85'90'95'00'05'10'15'20'25

Source:Haver,asofNov10,2024.TheUSIndexofLeadingEconomicIndicatorslooksatacombinationofstatisticsincludingmanufacturingnew

orders,moneysupplyandconsumerexpectationsasaguidetopotentialfutureactivity.TheUSIndexofCoincidentEconomicIndicatorsaddresses

acombinationofelementssuchaslabormarketactivity,personalincome,andindustrialoutputtocapturethestateofcurrentactivity.Indicesare

unmanaged.Aninvestorcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.Theyareshownforillustrativepurposesonlyanddonotrepresenttheperformanceofanyspecificinvestment.Indexreturnsdonotincludeanyexpenses,feesorsalescharges,whichwouldlowerperformance.Allforecastsareexpressionsofopinionandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeandarenotintendedtobeaguaranteeoffutureevents.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Realresultsmayvary.

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citW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

In2025and2026,weexpectthis“rule-breaking”expansiontocontinue.Wealsoexpectthegrowthtobeaccompaniedbyfurthergeopoliticalandpoliticaldiscord.IntheU.S.,theincomingTrumpadministrationispoisedtopursuepoliciesthatseektoaccelerateactivitydomestically,butwhichmayincreasetensionsexternally.SomecontroversialpoliciesmayalsoleadtofractiousdomesticpoliticsintheU.S.andelsewhere.

Amidtheinevitablenoise,weremainfocusedonthedriversofglobalgrowth,bothshorterandlongerterm,whilemonitoringtheevolvingrisks.

CONTINUINGGROWTH,POTENTIALRISINGPROFITS

Inourview,globalGDPmayriseat2.9%in2025and2026,comparedto2.6%in2024–figure1.Amongadvancedeconomies,weseetheU.S.remainingasthemainengineofgrowth.WerecentlyupgradedourU.S.growthforecastfor2025to2.4%.

Asinhisfirstadministration,President-electDonaldTrumpwillaimtoboostgrowthwhiletryingtoavoidstrongerU.S.demandsimply“l(fā)eakingabroad”astheU.S.consumesmoreimports.Deregulationandtaxcutsarekeytohisgrowthagenda.WewillbewatchingU.S.smallbusinessconfidenceparticularlyforsignsthattheprospectoflooseningregulationisenhancingcurrentlydepressedsentiment.

FIGURE1

CitiWealthInvestmentsforecastsforGDPGrowth

GDPFORECASTS(%)

2020

U.S.

2.2

-6.3

-10.3

-3.2

-2.2

China

E.U.

U.K.

Global

-13.5

122

27.6

2020

S&P500

EPSLevel

P/E

2021

5.8

8.5

6.2

8.6

6.0

2021

46.9

209

24.4

2022

1.9

3.0

3.4

4.8

3.3

2022

6.0

222

17.8

2023

2.5

5.2

0.5

0.3

2.6

2023

0.6

223

22.8

2024E

2.7↑

4.9↓

0.7

1.0↑

2.6

2024E

9.2

244

24.0

2025E

2.4↑

5.2↑

1.2↓

1.1↓

2.9↑

2025E

7.6

262

22.4

2026E

2.1

4.8

1.6

1.5

2.9

2026E

7.6

280

20.9

Source:CitiWealthInvestments,asofNov16,2024.Allforecastsareexpressionsofopinionandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeandarenotintendedtobeaguaranteeoffutureevents.Indicesareunmanaged.Aninvestorcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.Theyareshownforillustrativepurposesonlyanddonotrepresenttheperformanceofanyspecificinvestment.Indexreturnsdonotincludeanyexpenses,feesorsalescharges,whichwouldlowerperformance.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Realresultsmayvary.

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CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

Ofcourse,Trump’sagendacomeswithrisks.Anycapitalspendingboomcouldseemisallocationofresources.TheU.S.economymightsimply“runhotter”withoutanyincreaseinitsgrowthpotential.Ifenacted,tariffsandtoughactiononillegalimmigrationwouldalsolikelyraisegoodspricesandsqueezethesupplyoflabor,feedingthroughintohigherinflation,oneoftheprimaryissuesofthecampaignforvotersacrossthecountry.

Thatsaid,wesuspectTrump’sdomesticandexternalpoliciesmayproveratherdifferentfromhiscampaignspeeches.

Fornow,weexpectU.S.coreinflationtodropto2%duringthefirsthalfofnextyearthankspartlytothestrongdollarandcheaperimports.WethinktheFedmaybeabletocutpolicyrates,ifmoregradually,throughthefirsthalfof2025.TheFedfundstargetrangemaybottomaround3.5–4%in2025.

Againstthisbackdrop,welookforfurthergrowthincorporateprofitsbothintheU.S.andtherestoftheworld–figure2.Oncemore,this“breakstherules.”Interestratecuttingcycleshavetypicallyoccurredattimesoffallingratherthanrisingprofits.

FIGURE2

welookforEPSgainsbeyondtheU.S.

MSCIUSMSCIACWIex-US

90

QuarterlyEPSGrowthY/Y%

70

50

30

10

-10

-30

-50

Estimates

'19'20'21'22'23'24'25

Source:Bloomberg,asofOct31,2024.CitiWealthforecastsarebasedonhistoricnationalaccountsandIMF-forwarddata.Allforecastsare

expressionsofopinionandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeandarenotintendedtobeaguaranteeoffutureevents.Indicesareunmanaged.Aninvestorcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.Theyareshownforillustrativepurposesonlyanddonotrepresenttheperformanceofanyspecificinvestment.Indexreturnsdonotincludeanyexpenses,feesorsalescharges,whichwouldlowerperformance.Forillustrativepurposesonly.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Realresultsmayvary.

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CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

GEOPOLITICALDISCORD

WeexpectTrumptopursuesomeversionoftheswiftlyimposed

60%-or-highertariffsonimportsfromChinathathepromised

inhiselectioncampaign.Onlyintimewillwelearnifthisisa

negotiatinggambittoachieveotherChina-relatedgoals.Weare

skepticalthatmuchwillbeachievedotherthanashiftinproductionandtradebetweencountries.SomeU.S.companieswouldalmostinevitablyfaceharshretaliatorymeasuresfromChina.

Heavy,across-the-boardU.S.tariffswouldrepresentaclearthreattoChineseexports,whichhavebeenararebrightspotforitseconomylately.WearekeenlywatchingtoseewhetherChinabecomesbolderormoretimidinitsgrowth-boostingeffortsathome.Sofar,thesizeandspecificsofitsborrowingandspendingplanshavedisappointed.

Ourforecastfor2025isforaslightincreaseinChina’sGDPto5.2%.

Theblanket10–20%tariffsTrumppromisedonallothercountries’importsmaybeintendedasabargaining

Geopoliticaleventshavenot

historicallychangedtheglobaleconomy’sormarkets’direction

chiptopersuadeotherstolowertheirtariffsonU.S.goods.TheEuropeanUnion–wherewealreadyexpectfurtherlimpGDPgrowthin2025–looksvulnerablegivenitsexportrelianceonU.S.trade.WeconsidertradedisputesamongthegreaterriskstoU.S.andworldequitymarketsresultingfromtheU.S.election.Evenifafull-blowntradewarisavoided,headlinesaboutU.S.policyarelikelytocausemarketvolatility,asin2018.

Muchofthebullmarketinriskassetssincelate2022hasoccurredamidheightenedgeopoliticaltensions,includingthewarsintheMiddleEastandUkraine.Sucheventshavenothistoricallychangedthedirectionoftheglobaleconomyormarkets,aswehaveoftenpointedout.1ThereisnowgreateruncertaintyoverhowthenewU.S.administrationwillapproachtheseandothergeopoliticalchallenges.Trumpprideshimselfonunpredictabilityinforeignaffairsandbelievesthatrivalsandpotentialfoeswillbemorecautiousonhiswatch.Nevertheless,geopoliticaltensionsandflashpointslooksettopersistintheyearsahead–leavingmarketvolatilityintheirwake.

1See,forexample,Geopoliticsandelections:assessingriskin2024inWealthOutlook2024.

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CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

STRATEGIESFORA“RULE-BREAKING”EXPANSION

Howtopositionportfoliosforgrowthamiddiscord?Weseepotentialfordecentreturnsoverthecomingdecade–thelong-termviewforassetclasses:moderateoptimism.However,weseemanyinvestorswhoseportfoliosarehighlyconcentrated,especiallyinU.S.large-capequities,whichhaveperformedstronglyinrecentyears.Giventhelatter’shighvaluations,webelievesuchconcentrationmayproveevenriskierinthecomingdecade.Holdinglargeamountsofcash,meanwhile,seemsunlikelytoberewarding.

Againstthisbackdrop,wemakethecaseforkeepingcoreportfoliosfullyinvestedandexposedtoalltheassetclassesenvisagedineachinvestor’slong-terminvestmentplan–stayingthecourse:broadeningportfoliohorizons.

Withequityupsidelikelytocontinue

in2025,wethinkmoresectorsand

countriescanhelpdrivemarkets.We

explorepotentialopportunitiesandrisksinU.S.small-andmid-capequities,banks,the

enablersofmanufacturingreshoring,andnationalmarketsincludingBrazil,JapanandIndia–equities:shiftingleadershipinanongoingbullmarket.

Infixedincome,weseekyieldfromcredit–i.e.,bondsissuedbycompanies.Indeed,webelievethatintermediatematurity,investmentgradecorporatebondscouldserveasacorefixedincomeholding.Suitableinvestorsmightalsoconsiderdifferentiatedholdings,includingstructuredcredit,bankloansandpreferredsecurities–fixedincome:creditatthecore.Likewise,suitableandqualifiedinvestorsmightseekdiversificationinprivateequity,privatecreditandrealestate–complementingcoreportfolioswithprivateassetclasses.

Inthefaceofgeopoliticaldiscord,welooktoglobaldiversificationtohelpaddressrisks.Webelievesuchallocationsarelikelytowithstandvolatilitybetterthanportfoliosconcentratedinaregionwhereasignificantgeopoliticalflashpointoccurs.Wealso seevalueinexposuretoinvestmentsrelatingto“economicsecurity”– vitalaspectsofglobalsupplychainsandnationalsecurity.Theseinclude suppliesoftraditionalenergy,technologysuchassemiconductors,defense andcybersecurity.Manyofthesearetiedtoourunstoppabletrends,the powerful,long-termforcesthatmayreshapetheworldaroundus–see,for example,positioningportfoliosamidU.S.-Chinapolarization.

Amongourunstoppabletrends,aretheadvanceofartificialintelligence

(AI).WeexpectAItoenhancehumanoutputincomingyears,whilecreating newsocialandcybersecurityrisks.Ifso,AIcouldenablethe“speedlimit” oftheglobaleconomy’sgrowthtoriseovertime.Inthemeantime,weseethebenefitsofthisgame-changingtechnologyspreadingtomoreindustries–AI:gettingmorereal.

Astheglobaleconomy’s“rule-breaking”expansionlookspoisedtocontinuein2025and2026,wethereforeseemanywaystopositionportfoliosforwhatmayfollow.Ourapproachstressesdiscipline,allocatingtopotentialopportunitieswithintheframeworkofalong-termplanandunderstandingtherisks.Whiletheeconomymaybreaktherulesfromtimetotime,preservingandgrowingwealthcallsforinvestorstostaythecourse.

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CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

ourpositioning

ASSETCLASSES|GLOBALUSDLEVEL3ASSETALLOCATION

STRATEGIC(%)

(longterm)

TACTICAL(%)0

FIXEDINCOME

37

18.8

-5.6

-2.5

DEVELOPEDSOVEREIGN

U.S.

8.8

1.6

NON-U.S.

10

-7.3

U.S.SECURITIZED

6.1

2

DEVELOPEDIGCORPORATES

6.9

-0.3

HIGHYIELD

2

-1.5

EMERGINGMARKETSOVEREIGN

3.1

-1

THEMATIC:PREFERREDS

0

2

THEMATIC:U.S.BANKLOANS

0

2

EQUITIES

60.9

3.5

DEVELOPEDEQUITIES

52.2

2.9

LARGECAP

46.3

1

U.S.

33.1

0

S&P500

33.1

-1.5

THEMATIC:EQUALWGTS&P500

0

1.5

CANADA

1.5

0

U.K.

1.9

0

EUROPEEX-U.K.

5.4

0

ASIAEXJAPAN

1.4

0.5

JAPAN

3

0.5

SMALL-ANDMIDCAP(SMID)

5.9

1.9

COREGLOBALSMID

THEMATIC:U.S.SMIDGROWTH

5.9

0

-1.1

3

EMERGINGMARKETEQUITY

8.7

0.6

ASIA

7.4

0.5

LATINAMERICA

0.8

0.5

EUROPE,MIDDLEEASTANDAFRICA

0.5

-0.4

THEMATIC:HEALTHCARE

0

2

0

-1

0

CASH

COMMODITIES

0

GLOBALUSDLEVEL3ASSETALLOCATION100

STRATEGIC

ASSETALLOCATION

ACTIVE

Source:CitiWealthInvestmentsGlobalInvestmentCommitteeandCitiWealthStrategicAssetAllocationandQuantitativeResearchTeam,asofNov9,

2024.Theabovetableisanexampleforeducationalandillustrationpurposesonlyanddoesnotconstituteaportfoliorecommendation.Itwasgeneratedwithouttakingintoaccountanyindividual'sspecificcircumstancesorrequirements.InvestorslookingtodeveloptheirportfolioshouldcontacttheirCiti

15

representativeforfurtherguidance.Risklevel3isdesignedforinvestorswithablendedobjectivewhorequireamixofassetsandseekabalancebetweeninvestmentsthatofferincomeandthosepositionedforapotentiallyhigherreturnoninvestment.Risklevel3maybeappropriateforinvestorswillingto

subjecttheirportfoliotoadditionalriskforpotentialgrowthinadditiontoalevelofincomereflectiveofhis/herstatedrisktolerance.Theassetclassesusedtopopulatetheallocationmodelmayunderperformtheirrespectiveindicesandleadtolowerperformancethanthemodelanticipates.

CtW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

thelong-termviewforassetclasses:moderateoptimism

Whilethenextdecadewilllikelyseelowerreturnsthan

thelastcoupleofyears,wecontinuetomakethecaseforglobaldiversification.

Tobuildandmaintainacoreportfolio,youneedalong-terminvestmentplan.Thisplan–alsoknownasastrategicassetallocation–setsouthowmuchtoallocatetoeachassetclass.AtCitiWealth,wecreatesuchaplanforeachclientusingourownmethodology:

AdaptiveValuationStrategies(AVS).AVStakescurrentvaluationstoestimatereturnsoverthenextdecade.Basedpartlyontheseestimates,itsuggestsasuitablemixofassetclassesforpursuingeachclient’sgoals.So,whatisAVSsayingabouttheoutlookforreturnsoverthecomingdecade?

keytakeaways

→Risingmarketsin2023and2024haveraisedvaluationsacrossassetclasses

→Butourten-yearreturnforecastsmakeusmoderatelyoptimistic

→PortfoliosconcentratedinasingleassetclasswithalowerStrategicReturn

Estimate(SRE)mayproveevenriskier

→Holdingtoomuchcashislikelytoproveunrewarding

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citW.thWEALTHOUTLOOK2025

Figure1showsourStrategicReturnEstimates(SREs)fortenmajorassetclasses.SREsareannualizedforecastsoveradecadethatmaynotbeachieved.Aftertwoyearsofstronglyrisingmarkets,valuationsarenolongeraslowastheywere.Assuch,SREshavealsocomedownfromwheretheywerethistimelastyearoreveninmid-2024.Alongsidetheseforecasts,weshareExtremeDownsideRisk.

Alsodisplayedinfigure1isExtremeDownsideRisk(EDR)foreachassetclass.Basedonhistoricaldata,EDRaddressesthemostmeaningfulriskforinvestors:thatofanallocationsufferingseverelossesduringacrisis.SREsandEDRsarecloselyrelated,withhigherreturnscomingwithhigherrisks.

FIGURE1

ourreturnandriskestimatesoveradecade

EQUITIES

DevelopedMarkets

EmergingMarkets

FIXEDINCOME

InvestmentGrade

HighYield

EmergingMarkets

CASH

HEDGEFUNDS

PRIVATEASSETS

PrivateEquity

PrivateCredit

REALESTATE

COMMODITIES

SREfrom

2025to2035

5.6%

5.2%

9.2%

4.8%

4.6%

5.6%

6.1%

3.2%

8.1%

12.6%

13.5%

7.6%

11.0%

2.5%

SREfrommid-2024tomid-2034

6.4%

6.0%

10.4%

5.3%

5.1%

6.3%

7.1%

3.2%

8.5%

14.6%*

14.6%

n/a*

10.8%

2.6%

EDRfrom

2025to2035

-55.8%

-63.8%

-11.9%

-49.8%

-45.5%

0.0%

-36.9%

-71.6%

-78.7%

-25.1%

-78.9%

-50.5%

Source:CitiWealthStrategicAssetAllocationandQuantitativeResearchTeam.StrategicReturnEstimates(SREs)2025(basedondataasofOct

2024),priorStrategicReturnEstimatesformid-year2024(basedondataasofApr2024).TheStrategicReturnEstimatesarecalculatedannuallyandcanbereassessedperiodically.ReturnsestimatedinU.S.Dollars.Allestimatesareexpressionsofopinionandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice

andarenotintendedtobeaguaranteeoffutureevents.StrategicReturnEstimatesarenoguaranteeoffutureperformance.ExtremeDownsideRisk

(EDR)calculatestheworstpotentiallossthataparticularallocationmaysufferwithinarollingtwelve-monthperiodovertenyears.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffuturereturns.

StrategicReturnEstimatesbasedonindicesareCitiWealth’sforecastofreturnsforspecificassetclasses(towhichtheindexbelongs)overa10-yeartimehorizon.Indicesareusedtoproxyforeachassetclass.Theforecastforeachspecificassetclassismadeusingaproprietarymethodologythatisappropriateforthatassetclass.Equityassetclassesutilizeaproprietaryforecastingmethodologybasedontheassumptionthatequityvaluationsreverttotheirlong-termtrendovertime.Themethodologyisbuiltaroundspecificvaluationmeasuresthatrequireseveralstagesofcalculation.

AssumptionsontheprojectedgrowthofearningsanddividendsareadditionallyappliedtocalculatetheSREoftheequityassetclass.FixedIncomeassetclassforecastsuseaproprietaryforecastingmethodologythatisbasedoncurrentyieldlevels.Otherassetclassesutilizeotherspecific

forecastingmethodologies.

*PrivateAssetsatthemid-yearstageconsistedonlyofPrivateEquity;anSREforPrivateCreditwasnotcalculated.

SREsdonotreflectthedeductionofclientfeesandexpenses.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffu