龍房商道項(xiàng)目可行性研究報(bào)告.doc

airport was built during the war, but for some reason it could not be used then. Last year, however, it came into use. Over a hundred people must have been driven away from their homes by the noise. I am one of the few people left. Sometimes I think this house will be knocked down by a passing plane. I have been offered a large sum of money to go away, but I am determined to stay here. Everybody says I must be mad and they are probably right.Lesson22 A glass envelope 玻璃信封My daughter, Jane, never dreamed of receiving a letter from a girl of her own age in Holland. Last year, we were travelling across the Channel and Jane put a piece of paper with her name and address on it into a bottle. She threw the bottle into the sea. She never thought of it again, but ten months later, she received a letter from a girl in Holland. Both girls write to each other regularly now. However, they have decided to use the post-office. Letters will cost a litt1e more, but they will certainly travel faster. Lesson23 A new house 新居I had a letter from my sister yesterday. She lives in Nigeria. In her letter, she said that she would come to England next year. If she comes, she will get a surprise. We are now living in a beautiful new house in the country. Work on it had begun before my sister left. The house was completed five months ago. In my letter, I told her that she could stay with us. The house has many large rooms and there is a lovely garden. It is a very modern house, so it looks strange to some people. It must be the only modern house in the district.Lesson24 It could be worse 不幸中之萬(wàn)幸I entered the hotel managers office and sat down. I had just lost &50 and I felt very upset. I left the money in my room, I said, and its not there now. The manager was sympathetic, but he could do nothing. Everyones losing money these days, he said. He started to complain about this wicked world but was interrupted by a knock at the door. A girl came in and put an envelope on his desk. It contained &5o. I found this outside this gentlemans room she said. Well, I said to the manager, there is still some honesty in this world !lesson25 Do the English speak English? 英國(guó)人講的是英語(yǔ)嗎？I arrived in London at last. The railway station was big, black and dark. I did not know the way to my hotel, so I asked a porter. I not only spoke English very carefully, but very clearly as well. The porter, however, could not understand me; I repeated my question several times and at last he understood. He answered me, but he spoke neither slowly nor clearly. I am a foreigner, I said. Then he spoke slowly, but I could not understand him. My teacher never spoke English like that! The porter and I looked at each other and smiled. Then he said something and I understood it. Youll soon learn English! he said. I wonder. In England, each man speaks a different language. The English understand each other, but I dont understand them ! Do they speak English ?lesson26 The best art critics 最佳美術(shù)評(píng)論家I am an art student and I paint a lot of pictures. Many people pretend that they understand modern art. They always tell you what a picture is about. Of course, many pictures arc not about anything. They are just pretty patterns. We like them in the same way that we like pretty curtain material. I think that young children often appreciate modern pictures better than anyone else. They notice more. My sister is only seven, but she always tells me whether my pictures are good or not. She came into my room yesterday. What are you doing ? she asked. Im hanging this picture on the wall, I answered. Its a new one. Do you like it ? She looked at it critically for a moment. Its all right, she said, but isnt it upside-down ? I looked at it again. She was right! It was!Lesson27 A wet night 雨夜Late in the afternoon, the boys put up their tent in the middle of a field. As soon as this was done, they cooked a meal over an open fire. They were all hungry and the food smelt good. After a wonderful meal, they told stories and sang songs by the camp fire. But some time later it began to rain. The boys felt tired so they pet out the fire and crept into their tent. Their sleeping-bags were warm and comfortable, so they all slept soundly. In the middle of the night, two boys woke up and began shouting. The tent was full of water! They all leapt out of their sleeping-bags and hurried outside. It was raining heavily and they found that a stream had formed in the field. The stream wound its way across the field and then flowed right under their tent!Lesson28 No parking 禁止停車Jasper White is one of those rare people who believes in ancient myths. He has just bought a new house in the city, but ever since he moved in, he has had trouble with motorists. when he returns home at night, he always finds that someone has parked a car outside his gate. Because of this, he has not been able to get his own car into his garage even once. Jasper has put up No Parking signs outside his gate, but these have not had any effect. Now he has put an ugly stone head over the gate. It is one of the ugliest faces I have ever seen. I asked him what it was and he told me that it was Medusa, the Gorgon. Jasper hopes that she will turn motorists to stone. But none of them has been turned to stone yet!Lesson29 Taxi! 出租汽車！Captain Ben Fawcett has bought an unusual taxi and has begun a new service. The taxi is a small Swiss aeroplane called a Pilatus Porter. This wonderful plane can carry seven passengers. The most surprising thing about it, however, is that it can land anywhere: on snow, water, or even on a ploughed field. Captain Fawcetts first passenger was a doctor who flew from Birmingham to a lonely village in the Welsh mountains. Since then, Captain Fawcett has flown passengers to many unusual places. Once he landed on the roof of a block of flats and on another occasion, he landed in a deserted car park. Captain Fawcett has just refused a strange request from a businessman. The man wanted to fly to Rockall, a lonely island in the Atlantic Ocean, but Captain Fawcett did not take him because the trip was too dangerous.Lesson30 Football or polo? 足球還是水球？The Wayle is a small river that cuts across the park near my home. I like sitting by the Wayle on fine afternoons. It was warm last Sunday, so I went and sat on the river bank as usual. Some children were playing games on the bank and there were some people rowing on the river. Suddenly, one of the children kicked a ball very hard and it went towards a passing boat. Some people on the bank called out to the man in the boat, but he did not hear them. The ball struck him so hard that he nearly fell into the water. I turned to look at the children, but there werent any in sight: they had all run away! The man laughed when he realized what had happened. He called out to the children and threw the ball back to the bank. Lesson31 Success story 成功者的故事Yesterday afternoon Frank Hawkins was telling me about his experiences as a young man. Frank is now the head of a very large business company, but as a boy he used to work in a small shop. It was his job to repair bicycles and at that time he used to work fourteen hours a day. He saved money for years and in 1938 he bought a small work-shop of his own. During the war Frank used to make spare parts for aeroplanes. At that time he had two helpers. By the end of the war, the small work-shop had become a large factory which employed seven hundred and twenty-eight people. Frank smiled when he remembered his hard early years and the long road to success. He was still smiling when the door opened and his wife came in. She wanted him to repair their sons bicycle! Lesson32 Shopping made easy 購(gòu)物變得很方便People are not so honest as they once were. The temptation to steal is greater than ever before-especially in large shops. A detective recently watched a well-dressed woman who always went into a large store on Monday mornings. One Monday, there were fewer people in the shop than usual when the woman came in, so it was easier for the detective to watch her. The woman first bought a few small articles. After a little time, she chose one of the most expensive dresses in the shop and handed it to an assistant who wrapped it up for her as quickly as possible. Then the woman simply took the parcel and walked out of the shop without paying. When she was arrested, the detective found out that the shop-assistant was her daughter. The girl gave her mother a free dress once a week !lesson33 Out of the darkness 沖出黑暗Nearly a week passed before the girl was able to explain what had happened to her. One afternoon she set out from the coast in a small boat and was caught in a storm. Towards evening, the boat struck a rock and the girl jumped into the sea. Then she swam to the shore after spending the whole night in the water. During that time she covered a distance of eight miles. Early next morning, she saw a light ahead. She knew she was near the shore because the light was high up on the cliffs. On arriving at the shore, the girl struggled up the cliff towards the light she had seen. That was all she remembered. When she woke up a day later, she found herself in hospital.Lesson34 Quick work 破案“神速”Ted Robinson has been worried all the week. Last Tuesday he received a letter from the local police. In the letter he was asked to call at the station. Ted wondered why he was wanted by the police, but he went to the station yesterday and now he is not worried any more. At the station, he was told by a smiling policeman that his bicycle had been found. Five days ago, the policeman told him, the bicycle was picked up in a small village four hundred miles away. It is now being sent to his home by train. Ted was most surprised when he heard the news. He was amused too, because he never expected the bicycle to be found. It was stolen twenty years ago when Ted was a boy of fifteen !Lesson35 Stop thief! 捉賊！Rov Trenton used to drive a taxi. A short while ago, however, he became a bus-driver and he was not regretted it. He is finding his new work far more exciting. When he was driving along Catford Street recently, he saw two thieves rush out of a shop and run towards a waiting car. One of them was carrying a bag full of money. Roy acted quickly and drove the bus straight at the thieves. The one with the money got such a fright that he dropped the bag. As the thieves were trying to get away in their car, Roy drove his bus into the back of it. While the battered car was moving away, Roy stopped his bus and telephoned the police. The thieves car was badly damaged and easy to recognize. Shortly afterwards, the police stopped the car and both men were arrested. Lesson36 Across the Channel 橫渡海峽Erna Hart is going to swim across the English Channel tomorrow. She is going to set out from the French coast at five oclock in the morning. Erna is only fourteen years old and she hopes lo set up a new world record. She is a strong swimmer and many people feel that she is sure to succeed. Ernas father will set out with her in a small boat. Mr Hart has trained his daughter for years. Tomorrow he will be watching her anxiously as she swims the long distance to England. Erna 目 錄報(bào)告摘要31 項(xiàng)目基本情況62 投資環(huán)境、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)市場(chǎng)與商業(yè)市場(chǎng)分析62.1 北京市概況及投資環(huán)境分析62.2 北京市宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展基本情況62.3 北京市商業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀分析62.4 北京市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的基本情況122.5 北京市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展總結(jié)193 商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)的政策、法律及規(guī)劃依據(jù)194立地開發(fā)條件194.1 項(xiàng)目立地條件194.2 項(xiàng)目地塊基本指標(biāo)204.3商業(yè)區(qū)位及道路交通204.4 附近商業(yè)及生活配套294.5 市政基礎(chǔ)及公建配套設(shè)施304.6 立地綜合評(píng)述315 項(xiàng)目所在區(qū)域商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的開發(fā)、出售、出租經(jīng)營(yíng)情況315.1供給分析315.2 需求分析345.3 租售分析385.4 對(duì)項(xiàng)目所在區(qū)域的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的總體評(píng)價(jià)415.5 商業(yè)用房項(xiàng)目SWOT分析426 項(xiàng)目定位及設(shè)計(jì)建議446.1 市場(chǎng)定位446.2 產(chǎn)品定位506.3 目標(biāo)客戶定位547 項(xiàng)目綜合分析57報(bào)告摘要1、項(xiàng)目概況龍房商道項(xiàng)目是北京龍鼎華房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)公司在北京東四環(huán)窯洼湖地區(qū)開發(fā)的大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目，占地46畝，通過(guò)前期初步設(shè)計(jì)，計(jì)劃建設(shè)面積約為6萬(wàn)平方米，擬建成東部地區(qū)的一個(gè)標(biāo)志性的購(gòu)物中心。2、項(xiàng)目分析結(jié)果通過(guò)對(duì)項(xiàng)目的自身?xiàng)l件與市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的分析，對(duì)本項(xiàng)目判斷如下：2.1項(xiàng)目?jī)?yōu)勢(shì) 項(xiàng)目位于規(guī)劃中的環(huán)四環(huán)商業(yè)帶上，交通的通達(dá)性和通暢性均好； 項(xiàng)目周邊已經(jīng)有一定規(guī)模和層次的居民住宅落成，形成基本消費(fèi)； 項(xiàng)目西靠CBD商務(wù)人群，東接垡頭邊緣集團(tuán)，未來(lái)顧客數(shù)量充足； 燕莎OUTLETS的開業(yè)形成初步且能夠互補(bǔ)的商業(yè)氛圍和充足客流； 項(xiàng)目前期良好的規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)，將能充分靈活地滿足商家和商戶的需求； 開發(fā)商的商業(yè)物業(yè)持有經(jīng)營(yíng)原則使得本項(xiàng)目商業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)管理更易成功。2.2項(xiàng)目劣勢(shì) 項(xiàng)目雖在四環(huán)路邊，但由于周邊建筑和道路問(wèn)題造成了展示性不佳； 項(xiàng)目自身及周邊目前正處于待開發(fā)階段，商業(yè)成長(zhǎng)需要一定的時(shí)間； 項(xiàng)目周邊的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施相對(duì)不完善，窯洼湖橋的改善需要一定的時(shí)間； 項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)有的商業(yè)規(guī)劃體量稍小，難以形成具有震撼力的規(guī)?；瘍?yōu)勢(shì)。2.3項(xiàng)目機(jī)會(huì) 商業(yè)發(fā)展的良好形勢(shì)與WTO的開放，四環(huán)商業(yè)帶正初現(xiàn)端倪； 項(xiàng)目位于快速成長(zhǎng)的環(huán)四環(huán)商業(yè)帶，將成為四環(huán)重要商業(yè)設(shè)施之一； 項(xiàng)目處于規(guī)劃中的CBD東擴(kuò)范圍和重點(diǎn)區(qū)域，未來(lái)區(qū)域潛力巨大； 與OUTLETS等商業(yè)的業(yè)態(tài)錯(cuò)位互補(bǔ)，將可能形成“1+12”的效果； 項(xiàng)目區(qū)域的四、五環(huán)間的商業(yè)空缺，可能通過(guò)本項(xiàng)目的成功開發(fā)填補(bǔ)； 未來(lái)項(xiàng)目周邊眾多樓盤的興建和人口入住，將使本項(xiàng)目基本商圈擴(kuò)大。2.4項(xiàng)目威脅 未來(lái)東邊三、四、五環(huán)之間商業(yè)發(fā)展的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)關(guān)系將造成一定的威脅； 處于城市節(jié)點(diǎn)中心的華貿(mào)中心20萬(wàn)平方米商業(yè)對(duì)本項(xiàng)目的分流作用； 項(xiàng)目周邊樓盤商業(yè)（如世紀(jì)華僑城）對(duì)本項(xiàng)目客流具一定的分流作用。綜上所述，我們的結(jié)論是：項(xiàng)目區(qū)位未來(lái)發(fā)展方向良好，潛力巨大，本項(xiàng)目將擁有良好的發(fā)展空間。3、項(xiàng)目定位建議3.1項(xiàng)目整體定位通過(guò)分析，我們建議項(xiàng)目的定位是：為北京東南區(qū)域居民提供餐飲、娛樂(lè)和購(gòu)物服務(wù)的休閑娛樂(lè)型購(gòu)物中心（Shopping Center）。項(xiàng)目將立足于基本商圈的消費(fèi)人群，規(guī)劃滿足居民基本消費(fèi)需求的大型綜合超市（HYPERMARKET），同時(shí)充分利用環(huán)四環(huán)的交通區(qū)位優(yōu)勢(shì)及與OUTLETS的錯(cuò)位及互補(bǔ)性定位，引入符合商圈需要且輻射能力極強(qiáng)的業(yè)態(tài)如餐飲娛樂(lè)、家居建材等，以吸引二三級(jí)商圈的商務(wù)人群與高收入階層，從而建成東南四環(huán)區(qū)域的地標(biāo)性的休閑娛樂(lè)購(gòu)物中心。3.2 項(xiàng)目規(guī)模定位根據(jù)商圈消費(fèi)力的估算，我們建議本項(xiàng)目的總面積在9萬(wàn)平方米左右，其中包括約2萬(wàn)平方米的停車場(chǎng)和7萬(wàn)平方米的商業(yè)面積。3.3 項(xiàng)目功能建議方案根據(jù)我們對(duì)本項(xiàng)目區(qū)位條件、市場(chǎng)定位及商圈內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)狀況的分析；并以經(jīng)營(yíng)內(nèi)容選擇原則為尺度而提出的兩種可供選擇的方案，其中每種方案必備的基本業(yè)態(tài)為：大型綜合超市、各種專賣專營(yíng)店、大型影城、KTV、大型餐飲、健身康體中心。 方案一：特色業(yè)種為大型影城和家居建材城； 方案二：特色業(yè)種為大型影城和電子數(shù)碼城。我們認(rèn)為第一種相對(duì)比較適合。1 項(xiàng)目基本情況龍房商道項(xiàng)目是北京龍鼎華房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)公司在北京東四環(huán)窯洼湖地區(qū)開發(fā)的大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目，項(xiàng)目占地46畝，開發(fā)商通過(guò)前期設(shè)計(jì)，計(jì)劃建設(shè)面積約為6萬(wàn)平方米，擬建成東部地區(qū)的一個(gè)標(biāo)志性的購(gòu)物中心。為了更好的對(duì)龍房商道項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行定位和規(guī)劃，北京龍鼎華房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)公司委托北京世紀(jì)華夏資產(chǎn)管理有限公司作為顧問(wèn)方，對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行調(diào)研分析，并根據(jù)分析結(jié)果對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行定位，提交可行性研究報(bào)告。2 投資環(huán)境、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)市場(chǎng)與商業(yè)市場(chǎng)分析2.1 北京市概況及投資環(huán)境分析詳細(xì)內(nèi)容見附錄二2.2 北京市宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展基本情況詳細(xì)內(nèi)容見附錄二2.3 北京市商業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀分析我們認(rèn)為北京市的商業(yè)發(fā)展有以下主要特征：l 城市商業(yè)吸引力巨大，作為國(guó)際性的大都市，無(wú)論是出于戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展要求還是對(duì)龐大購(gòu)買力的追逐，北京的商業(yè)吸引了國(guó)內(nèi)外諸多商家的進(jìn)駐，可以說(shuō)北京的商家數(shù)量之多和種類之全在全國(guó)都是領(lǐng)先的。l 商業(yè)持續(xù)快速成長(zhǎng)，從商業(yè)增長(zhǎng)速度來(lái)看，近幾年，北京市商業(yè)的年平均增長(zhǎng)速度均在15%左右，這要比同期GDP平均增長(zhǎng)速度高出約1/3左右。而從業(yè)態(tài)發(fā)展來(lái)看，近幾年，以大賣場(chǎng)和超市為代表的先進(jìn)商業(yè)業(yè)態(tài)在北京得到了年均增速30%以上的高速發(fā)展。l 商業(yè)重心逐步遷移，伴隨著北京的城市化進(jìn)程與住宅開發(fā)，商業(yè)發(fā)展的重心正在逐步從環(huán)三環(huán)區(qū)域向環(huán)四環(huán)區(qū)域遷移，西、北四環(huán)的商業(yè)發(fā)展已經(jīng)初現(xiàn)端倪。未來(lái)幾年，環(huán)四環(huán)商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶將迅速崛起。l 商家戰(zhàn)略布點(diǎn)加速，在商業(yè)發(fā)展的良好形勢(shì)下，借助2004年年底商業(yè)領(lǐng)域全面開放的機(jī)會(huì)，國(guó)內(nèi)外知名商家紛紛加速在北京的戰(zhàn)略布局。三環(huán)、四環(huán)甚至是部分五環(huán)區(qū)域商業(yè)項(xiàng)目都成了商家竟相角逐的對(duì)象。2.3.1影響商業(yè)發(fā)展的需求因素分析影響一個(gè)城市商業(yè)發(fā)展的主要因素是人口、收入水平、支出水平和消費(fèi)習(xí)慣，其中城市的消費(fèi)水平除了受消費(fèi)習(xí)慣等其它因素影響外，最主要的是受消費(fèi)者規(guī)模與消費(fèi)購(gòu)買能力的影響。本節(jié)將分別闡述分析。 巨大且不斷增長(zhǎng)的人口規(guī)模是商業(yè)發(fā)展的基石截止2003年末，北京市常住人口1456萬(wàn)人，其中戶籍人口1148.8萬(wàn)人。外來(lái)人口307.2萬(wàn)人，如果加上規(guī)模龐大的流動(dòng)人口，無(wú)疑將形成一個(gè)巨大的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模。與此同時(shí)，伴隨著北京房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的開放和戶籍身份的淡化，越來(lái)越多的相對(duì)富裕人口開始涌入北京置業(yè)與就業(yè)（北京有的樓盤甚至有超過(guò)50%以上的購(gòu)買者是外地人），這使得北京人口的數(shù)字更加龐大。而持續(xù)擴(kuò)張的人口基數(shù)也使得北京的消費(fèi)規(guī)模達(dá)到一個(gè)令商家垂涎的地步，為商家的成功經(jīng)營(yíng)奠定基石。領(lǐng)先全國(guó)的購(gòu)買力水平是北京商業(yè)真正繁榮的關(guān)鍵近幾年，北京市居民的平均購(gòu)買力水平持續(xù)排名全國(guó)前四名之內(nèi)，居民收入水平持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。2003年，北京的城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入更是達(dá)到13882.9元，生活費(fèi)支出達(dá)11123.8元。同時(shí)，居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)變化明顯，生存性消費(fèi)比重下降，享受性和發(fā)展性比重上升。住房和購(gòu)車成為新的消費(fèi)熱點(diǎn)，特別是私家車消費(fèi)正處于加速階段，2002年北京市居民私家車保有量約為80萬(wàn)輛，而到2003年年底已經(jīng)達(dá)到104萬(wàn)輛，汽車消費(fèi)的高速增長(zhǎng)帶動(dòng)了相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，同時(shí)也從根本上擴(kuò)大了居民的行動(dòng)半徑，進(jìn)而使其消費(fèi)習(xí)慣得到質(zhì)的改變。當(dāng)然，對(duì)商家的商業(yè)設(shè)施的停車設(shè)施的建設(shè)也提出了新的要求，與本項(xiàng)目特征類似的北京金四季購(gòu)物廣場(chǎng)的火爆原因中，1500輛的免費(fèi)停車位起了關(guān)鍵作用。消費(fèi)習(xí)慣 一方面消費(fèi)習(xí)慣對(duì)現(xiàn)有的商業(yè)發(fā)展起著指導(dǎo)作用；另一方面，通過(guò)正確引導(dǎo)，消費(fèi)習(xí)慣也可以做到逐步調(diào)整。消費(fèi)者的調(diào)查結(jié)果請(qǐng)見附件，下面將對(duì)一些關(guān)鍵性的條件進(jìn)行分析：n 交通方便因素占據(jù)重要地位，交通條件成為居民購(gòu)物時(shí)越來(lái)越重視的因素，這一點(diǎn)與北京的住宅區(qū)域擴(kuò)大化及私家車進(jìn)入家庭普遍化密不可分。同時(shí)，停車場(chǎng)在顧客考慮因素中的地位也越發(fā)重要，成為影響選擇某些類別的消費(fèi)場(chǎng)所的關(guān)鍵因素。n 交通方式中公共汽車仍占主要地位，但私家車的比例在逐漸提高。這就對(duì)商業(yè)項(xiàng)目周邊的公交系統(tǒng)提出要求，盡可能?？扛嗟能嚧?。n 消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品中餐飲位列三甲，體現(xiàn)出消費(fèi)層次的高端性。北京居民的休閑娛樂(lè)與餐飲方面的消費(fèi)占到日常總消費(fèi)的60左右（其中餐飲更是占到了40%左右）。而高收入階層在休閑娛樂(lè)方面的支出占比更高，月收入6001至8000元收入階層休閑娛樂(lè)消費(fèi)比重最高為40.88%。所以在高收入居民聚集的地方，休閑娛樂(lè)餐飲業(yè)一般有著更好的發(fā)展前景?？傊?， 北京龐大的人口規(guī)模與高端的購(gòu)買力水平為其奠定了良好的商業(yè)發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)。同時(shí)，消費(fèi)習(xí)慣中私家車與餐飲娛樂(lè)的重要性也越來(lái)越明顯。2.3.2 影響商業(yè)發(fā)展的供給因素分析供應(yīng)方面，購(gòu)物中心、大型超市、大型專業(yè)店在2004年上半年的供應(yīng)都有所上升。開業(yè)的購(gòu)物中心，主要分布在木樨園、亞運(yùn)村、中關(guān)村等新興的商業(yè)中心。大型超市和大型專業(yè)店方面，外資品牌擴(kuò)張的勢(shì)頭不減，如家樂(lè)福中關(guān)村店和雙井店、易初蓮花朝陽(yáng)店、百安居九龍店和來(lái)廣營(yíng)店在新興住宅區(qū)相繼開業(yè)。為增強(qiáng)在市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力而重新包裝定位的舊項(xiàng)目，也開始投入市場(chǎng)，比如恒基中心和西單文化廣場(chǎng)?？鐕?guó)零售企業(yè)對(duì)大型超市、主力店店址的需求仍然強(qiáng)烈，如美國(guó)沃爾瑪、英國(guó)百安居、法國(guó)的歐尚和家樂(lè)福，都競(jìng)相在北京選址開店。此外，很多國(guó)外品牌，也相繼進(jìn)入大陸市場(chǎng)和計(jì)劃擴(kuò)張其業(yè)務(wù)。隨著政策的逐步放開和北京消費(fèi)水平的提高，一些國(guó)外知名品牌也加快了進(jìn)入北京市場(chǎng)的步伐，如杰尼亞、克里斯汀迪奧分別落戶東方新天地和國(guó)貿(mào)商城，世界頂級(jí)品牌的入駐標(biāo)志著當(dāng)?shù)氐南M(fèi)水平的提高，并對(duì)其他品牌起帶動(dòng)作用。餐飲和服裝方面的品牌店、大賣場(chǎng)式的主力店仍是主要力量。另外，北京商業(yè)市場(chǎng)也吸引著外地大型零售商的青睞，對(duì)商鋪需求構(gòu)成一支重要力量，如上半年山西華宇集團(tuán)的華宇時(shí)尚購(gòu)物中心、云南盛興集團(tuán)的盛興購(gòu)物廣場(chǎng)都已正式開業(yè)。2.3.3各商業(yè)業(yè)態(tài)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性分析 零售業(yè)市場(chǎng)分析l 各大連鎖企業(yè)集團(tuán)紛紛把在北京選址開發(fā)列為重中之重，開店熱潮正在北京各地展開，并且開店位置已經(jīng)逐漸從城內(nèi)向四環(huán)、五環(huán)和郊縣擴(kuò)散。從發(fā)展趨勢(shì)來(lái)看，各大零售集團(tuán)近幾年內(nèi)仍然會(huì)把北京作為在中國(guó)發(fā)展的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域，因此可以預(yù)計(jì)這股開店熱潮仍將持續(xù)相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，估計(jì)在5年之內(nèi)還會(huì)不斷有新店出現(xiàn)。l 便利店的發(fā)展啟動(dòng)，預(yù)計(jì)到2008年北京人均GDP達(dá)到6000美元，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化、連鎖化便利店將成為發(fā)展較快的業(yè)態(tài)。目前國(guó)際大品牌企業(yè)已經(jīng)紛紛在醞釀進(jìn)北京發(fā)展便利店。l 傳統(tǒng)業(yè)態(tài)中百貨地位受到挑戰(zhàn)，處于轉(zhuǎn)型期，百貨企業(yè)發(fā)展一部分繼續(xù)鞏固百貨市場(chǎng)，另一部分則利用資本集聚的優(yōu)勢(shì)向大型綜合超市或購(gòu)物中心轉(zhuǎn)型。l 產(chǎn)品定位和市場(chǎng)定位細(xì)分趨勢(shì)明顯，專賣店、專業(yè)店得到很大發(fā)展，并且將在未來(lái)占據(jù)重要地位。重視品牌經(jīng)營(yíng)，以及采用先進(jìn)的質(zhì)量管理系統(tǒng)和配送系統(tǒng)是專業(yè)店、專賣店成功的要點(diǎn)。在未來(lái)北京零售格局中，專業(yè)店、專賣店應(yīng)占有相當(dāng)?shù)谋戎?。目前北京在圖書、醫(yī)藥、汽車及配件、家用電器、鐘表、眼鏡等領(lǐng)域都有很快的發(fā)展。餐飲娛樂(lè)市場(chǎng)分析娛樂(lè)業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)對(duì)于餐飲業(yè)和零售業(yè)具有相當(dāng)?shù)囊栏叫?，其發(fā)展特點(diǎn)和餐飲有一定的類似性，本節(jié)重點(diǎn)對(duì)餐飲市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行分析。l 餐飲品種的齊全性和地域性特征明顯。北京餐館林立，名店星羅棋布，魯、京、川、粵、蘇、湘、西式等風(fēng)味佳肴充分滿足顧客的不同口味。l 注重文化品位。連鎖企業(yè)不僅在產(chǎn)品上體現(xiàn)當(dāng)?shù)氐娜宋奶厣?，同時(shí)還提煉并渲染自己的飲食文化。九頭鳥、楚天情、紅番茄靠的就是楚菜楚文化；渝鄉(xiāng)人家、沸騰魚鄉(xiāng)不僅川菜做得精，同時(shí)十分注重蜀國(guó)情調(diào)品位的營(yíng)造。l 連鎖經(jīng)營(yíng)形成強(qiáng)勢(shì)，北京市近幾年發(fā)展起來(lái)的餐飲店鋪不少是采取連鎖策略。酒樓式店鋪連鎖規(guī)?；旧显?5家以下。以連鎖經(jīng)營(yíng)模式發(fā)展的店鋪，多數(shù)選擇重點(diǎn)占領(lǐng)北京市某一特定的區(qū)域，圍繞這一商圈做足做滿。l 舊有餐飲中心削弱，新興中心發(fā)展機(jī)遇到來(lái)。餐飲業(yè)向城市外圍擴(kuò)展，近幾年興起的店鋪紛紛向大型新社區(qū)或三環(huán)及三環(huán)以外的地區(qū)發(fā)展。l 餐廳聚集旺市。北京的多處美食街，基本上是一條街嘗遍北京流行的吃食，這些地方營(yíng)業(yè)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)，晝夜?fàn)I業(yè)很普遍，而且整體質(zhì)量高，非常紅火。2.3.4 商業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀總結(jié)l 零售業(yè)發(fā)展迅速：連鎖超市開店勢(shì)頭迅猛，國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)零售巨頭紛紛把北京作為近幾年開店的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域，使近2年北京連鎖企業(yè)如雨后春筍般四處扎根；專賣店、專業(yè)市場(chǎng)得到大力發(fā)展，客層區(qū)分更加明顯，店鋪面積增加，商品品類越發(fā)齊全。l 餐飲業(yè)勢(shì)頭迅猛。近年北京餐飲市場(chǎng)發(fā)展迅猛，據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)，北京市餐飲業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)網(wǎng)點(diǎn)為2.9萬(wàn)個(gè)，餐飲市場(chǎng)規(guī)模巨大。隨著現(xiàn)代生活節(jié)奏的加快和旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展，人們外餐的比例大大提高，北京的餐飲業(yè)蘊(yùn)藏著巨大的市場(chǎng)商機(jī)。l 娛樂(lè)業(yè)異軍突起。隨居民生活水平的提高，娛樂(lè)業(yè)得到長(zhǎng)足發(fā)展，出現(xiàn)一批連鎖娛樂(lè)企業(yè)，并且其經(jīng)營(yíng)情況良好，正在向高端發(fā)展。2.3.5 商業(yè)發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)l 基于對(duì)北京商業(yè)現(xiàn)狀的認(rèn)識(shí)和趨勢(shì)分析研究，經(jīng)專家反復(fù)論證，我們認(rèn)為北京商業(yè)發(fā)展正在逐步形成大企業(yè)主導(dǎo)型流通格局的戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展模式，這一戰(zhàn)略模式的確定，對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)北京商業(yè)今后幾年的發(fā)展方向具有重要意義。l 從零售業(yè)發(fā)展來(lái)看，根據(jù)業(yè)態(tài)的不同將走向不同的方向，經(jīng)營(yíng)日常用品的超市、便利店等業(yè)態(tài)其連鎖經(jīng)營(yíng)的趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)非常明顯，統(tǒng)一采購(gòu)，統(tǒng)一管理，同一定價(jià)，統(tǒng)一經(jīng)營(yíng)的方向已經(jīng)勢(shì)不可擋，追求共性是這些業(yè)態(tài)的共同特征；而專賣店、專業(yè)市場(chǎng)、百貨店等提供選擇性商品則更多向個(gè)性化方向發(fā)展，將現(xiàn)有客層進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步細(xì)分，充分滿足自己面向客層的需求。l 餐飲娛樂(lè)業(yè)是講求個(gè)性化消費(fèi)的行業(yè)，隨居民收入水平的提高和消費(fèi)習(xí)慣的變化，伴隨著北京近幾年進(jìn)入城市建設(shè)高峰期，這些行業(yè)都將得到更快速發(fā)展。2.4 北京市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的基本情況據(jù)北京市統(tǒng)計(jì)局資料顯示，2003年底北京市人均商業(yè)面積約為0.9平方米，而國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的平均水平卻早已達(dá)到1.51.8平方米，上海、大連等城市的人均商業(yè)面積也相繼超過(guò)了1平方米。北京作為高度國(guó)際化的大都市，近幾年商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展勢(shì)頭十分迅猛，開發(fā)商也非常熱衷于開發(fā)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)。由于不遵循商業(yè)規(guī)律而盲目開發(fā)，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)在部分地區(qū)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)飽和現(xiàn)象，但新出現(xiàn)的項(xiàng)目仍然越來(lái)越多。預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的盲目開發(fā)熱潮將會(huì)回落。2.4.1 商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)發(fā)展概況但是北京商鋪所顯示的空置率和供應(yīng)規(guī)模還是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于住宅類、辦公類等其他物業(yè)的開發(fā)量。根據(jù)北京市商委的商業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃，預(yù)計(jì)在2005年人均商業(yè)面積將達(dá)到09平方米（這一目標(biāo)已經(jīng)在2003年提前實(shí)現(xiàn)），到2010年人均商業(yè)面積達(dá)到1.0平方米。在最近新批的房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目中，有500萬(wàn)平方米左右的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目，未來(lái)的北京商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍然火熱。蓬勃發(fā)展的零售業(yè)將令北京商鋪市場(chǎng)持續(xù)活躍，并將進(jìn)入一個(gè)大浪淘沙的過(guò)程，在這個(gè)過(guò)程中，將有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的企業(yè)和項(xiàng)目被市場(chǎng)淘汰或更新。在這一階段，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)在開發(fā)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)時(shí)要格外慎重。2.4.2 商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開發(fā)供應(yīng)量概況新增供給分析：2004年6月北京商業(yè)營(yíng)業(yè)用房新增供給項(xiàng)目：項(xiàng)目名稱項(xiàng)目位置總建筑面積建筑形