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1、An alysis of foreig n excha nge regulati on andpolicyPaperKeywords:foreig nexcha ngeliquidityarran geme ntsfor emergency financing of internationalhot moneyAbstract: Foreig n excha nge moveme nts onbehalf of thedistributionof internationalcapital flows,intern ati onalcapital flows may not only in fl
2、atedthecountry s economy and prosperity, to the host countrymay also be a devastat ing blow to the econo my, so thatonly the host country foreig n excha nge in flows and outflows for effective supervision, be able to reduce or buffer large intern ati onalcapital flows to the hostcountry s economic i
3、mpact.At prese nt,Chi na s in ter nati onalbala nee ofpayments current account transactionsunder the basicrealizationof the freely convertible, despite regulatorycapital remai ns,but a lot remai nscon sta nt in flux ofinternational hot money in China, to China s financial safety and security, theref
4、ore, the bankingsupervisionforeig nexcha ngeman ageme ntdepartme nts mustistre ngthe nsupervisi ontopreve ntthe in flux ofintern ati onal hot mon ey, the impact of finan cial security to en sure that our con trol.First, the curre nt foreig n excha ngecon trolproblems (A) the movement of our country
5、s foreignexcha ngeForeig nexcha ngein flowand outflowthroughthe balanee of payments currentaccount andcapital and finan cialacco unt, the curre nt in flowandoutflow of foreig n excha nge in Chi na is the main part ofthe transactionsunder current account and capital andfinan cialacco unt anu mber ofp
6、rojectsun dertrad ingactivities, andlargelythroughthe goods andservicestrade, foreig ndirectin vestme nt,mult in ati onalbus in essand mergers and acquisiti ons and other activities carriedout due to capital projects con ti nued to take man datoryexchangesettlementsystem, free enterprisebefore thede
7、ad continue to be a great use of foreign exchange constraints,many export enterprisesunder-reportingorunder-reporting of exportsexport prices, high importbus in ess n ewspaper reported imports or high import prices for corporate use of foreig n excha nge can be usedat any time, withoutrestrictionson
8、 purchase of foreigncoun tries, these foreig n excha nge surplus is ofte n storedIn other countries, then there is outflow of foreign exchange trend. s accession to WTO, China s capital and finan cial acco unt con ti nued to accelerate the ope ning up of the in flow and outflow of intern ati onal ca
9、pital is more smooth, more diverse sources, mon itori ng difficulty is greater, to the finan cial security of a very big challe nge.1 China s foreig n excha nge in flows of the reform and opening up, China is a serious shortage of foreig n excha nge, the state adopted a series of measures to in crea
10、seforeig n excha ngeearnin gs,save foreig nexcha ngespe nding,stre ngthe ningforeig nexcha nge reserves, mak ing the foreig n excha nge reserves con ti nueto rise. At prese nt, Chinarecent years by quicker,total foreig n excha nges foreign exchange reserves in as of May 2008, 17 of China sreserves h
11、ave reached $ 96.96 actually reached a record $ 74.5 billi on. Nati onal Curre ncybilli on,about ten timesin 2000, while China s foreignexchangereservesin April 2008 one-monthin creaseAuthority, July 4, 2008, as of the end of March, Chi naforeigndebtamountedto $ 92,589,000,0003 (notincluding Hong Ko
12、ng, Macau and Taiwan s foreign debt), compared with the end of 2007 in creased $ 18.971 billio n, of which short-term debt balanee of $ 367.25 billion,anin creaseover the previous year $ 16.641 billi on, anin crease of 7.56%, 60.30% of total foreig n debt, a record high in history .in accorda nee wi
13、th intern ati onal sta ndards, the warni ng level is short-term debt acco un ted for 25% as a measure, our short-termexternaldebt of the entireforeigndebt significantlyhigher proportion of evideneehas emerged, this phenomenoncan not be effectivelycon trolled if, once the mass exodus of capital, the
14、yua n could lead to crisis and finan cial crisis, this is what we want to see and accept the con seque nces.(2) China s foreignexchangeoutflow.Includingforeignexchange outflow of foreign exchangetran sfer cha nn els, the outflow of foreig n excha nge currency, foreign exchange outflow of reasons, an
15、d the flow field from the no rmal situati on, the main outflow of foreig n excha nge to pay imports, foreig n direct investment and overseas mergers and acquisitions, etc. sshare of foreigndirect investmentin larger, it is worthfocusing on, but because the history of the Ministry of Commerce statist
16、ics in this regardis not open, andpublished data from the point of view, the curre nt is much larger tha n China s foreig nexcha ngein flowsforeig nexcha nge outflow.3 abno rmal flow of intern ati onal capital prese ntwith in the speculative hot mon ey, shock, dan gerous andstrong, a larger amount,
17、flow speed and quickness. Hotmoneyin flowsinto China un der thecurre ntcha nn els,in clud ingtrade,in comeand curre nttran sfers;capitalunder the FDI,portfolioin vestme nt,trade credits andloans, in additi on to hot money and also through underground banks into commercialbanks in China andabroad due
18、 to foreig n excha nge in flow is much greater than the outflow of foreig n excha nge, which will bring a lot of problems:First, the RMB appreciati on serious pressure of foreig n excha nge reserves con ti nue to surge in the foreig n exchangemarket is greater than the supply of foreignexcha ngesupp
19、ly anddema ndthrough the pricemechanismto function, there is a downward trend inforeigncurrency prices, currency prices will be upwardpressure, which has gone from our 2005 In July 21, the RMB excha nge rate reform has bee n fully con firmed. As China s capital and finan cial acco unt in creased ope
20、 nn ess to internationalcapital appreciationof the yuan is notexpected to elimi nate the case, still continue to, come in large-scalein flux,which further promote the RMBexchange rate to rise, and this trendwas hidden humanfactors. Secondly, the increasingnumberof RMB foreignexcha ngeis well known t
21、hat foreig nexcha nge in flowsin crease the more n eedto in vestmore and more of thecurrency.Moreover, the growthmomentumof foreignexcha nge in flows, if susta in ed, will lead to weake ning of the mon etary authorities of mon etary in depe nden ce. When the appreciationof the renminbi to the expect
22、edvalue of speculative arbitrage,whe n,in the foreig nexchange market, there will be a lot of throwingthecurrency situation in the herding effect, the market sdesire to sell the local curre ncy will be more inten se, whichnot only caused by the rapid rise of domestic prices willquickly lead to asubs
23、ta ntialdomesticcurre ncydevaluatio n, and thus outside the depreciati on, so that the loss of stability of the curre ncy of the curre ncy, people will hold the con fide nee of the curre ncy plummeted. already tighte ning of mon etary policy eve n more vuln erable, high in flati onaccompa niedby hig
24、hin terestrates, thephe nomenonwill occur simulta neously, their economywill experie nee a fatal impact.In addition, China s foreign exchange reservescontinue to surge in the dollar depreciation, the high proporti on of dollar reserves in foreig n excha nge reserves, the extreme values ?of foreig n
25、excha nge reserves shrunk, greatly reduced the purchas ing power of foreig n exchange reserves, so China s foreign exchange inflow than outflow of this issue must be be completely resolved.Sec ond,problem-solvi ng ideas(A)macro-level1Stre ngthe ningofforeig nhigh-tech no logyproducts,tech no logy,la
26、bor purchases.Expa nsion of fiscal spe nding of foreig n reserves can eitherreduce the excessive depreciation of the dollar value of reserve assets derogatory, but also to a large exte nt make up formon etarytighte ning policy ofecono miccon tracti on caused by the reality.(2) to establish a sound f
27、inancial regulatory capital in flow and outflow of foreig n excha nge mon itori ng mechanisms, in particular, to respond to emergenciesofearly warning, preve nti on mecha ni sms, a large nu mber of intern ati onal capital flight for the short-term obstacles. On the foreig n excha nge bus in ess of c
28、ommercial banksandforeig n excha nge sources of funds used to supervise the import and export en terprises of domestic finan cial transactions carriedoutbythe Bank supervisionandin specti on of the sources and uses of fun ds, foreig n direct investmentprojectsontheuse of funds through itsdomestic Ba
29、nk supervisi on, etc. especially for the overall area foreig n excha nge in flow and outflow of funds for a full range of monitoring, focusing on foreign-invested en terprises, domestic en terprises and importand exportof foreig n curre ncy deposits in commercial ban ks.(3) Stren gthe nintern ati on
30、alcooperati on,inparticular, to stre ngthe n the curre ncy basket of curre ncies incoun triestostre ngthe ntrade andmon etarycooperation,in order to avoid the domestictighteningpolicy,resultingin the developmentof the domesticeconomy slowed, the relative decli ne in domestic reve nue, lead ing into
31、the country has in ter natio nalshort-termcapital, especially foreig n speculative capital in the form of rapid, large-scale escape to China s monetary policy has brought the hedge impact, especially given the severe impact of China s economy.4 draw the United States the recent subprime crisis, the
32、Federal Reserve to take a large in vestme nt banksin volved in emerge ncy financing arran geme nts to preve nt the foreig n exodus, the local curre ncy curre ncy volatility, and thus the use of large in vestme nt banks bond trad ing, stablecurrencycurrency semergencyfinancialarran geme nts.5 Adjust
33、the short-term debt acco un ted for theproporti onof total exter nal debt, a reducti on ofshort-term debt in total exter nal debt ratio, to avoid the short-term occurre nee of a large nu mber of foreig n flight accorda nee with intern ati onal sta ndards, the warni ng level is short-term debt accoun
34、tedfor 25% as measure, ourshort-term foreig n debt bala nee in the en tire foreig n debt sig nifica ntlyhigher proporti on of the proposedshort-term debt in our coun try in the proporti on of total foreig n debt tran sferred to the intern ati onal sta ndard or less.6 Chin ese-f un ded banks to stre
35、ngthe n supportfor corporate finance, reduce dependence on foreign capital, can avoid the large in flows of foreig n capital, but also difficult to solve the sav ings and the divers ion of funds caused by the plight of the commercial ban ks, while commodity prices also have in hibitory effect.(B) th
36、e micro-level 1 The con verge neeofforeig n commercial banks n eed to stre ngthe n the amount of people out effective mon itori ng of the quarterly report shows the statistical results do nu mericalan alysis,especially for the total amount of foreign exchangesources of fun ds, the total foreig n exc
37、ha nge fun ds, the total foreig n excha nge trad ing, in side and outside the store An alysis of cha nges in total can be more fully grasp the in flow and outflow of foreig n excha nge situati on, while focus ing on mon itori ng the use of project funds is greater than the foreign exchange sources o
38、f funds the project, the focus cha nges the differe nee if the differe nee is too large, indicating short-termcapital outflow thanin flow,the market there will be shortage of foreig nexcha nge, curre ncy excha nge rates will have a big drop, so the finan cial man ageme nt sector, i n order to establ
39、ish andimprove the detecti onof foreig ncapitalin flowandoutflow mechanism is necessary, so you can deal with un expected eve nts that preve nt the in dustry provide early warning and crisis preve nti on mecha ni sm.(2) to en couragedomesticen terprisestoimport adva needcoun triesof adva needtech no
40、 logy,adva needequipme nt,and adva needtale ntsin thein dustry(inforeig ncurre ncyto pay its laborcompe nsatio n), and has the pote ntial to en courage large enterprises to go abroad, foreigninvestmentfunds thatcan ease our foreig nexcha nge in flowtha n outflow ofcontradictions,but also can improve
41、 the enterprise score competitive ness,expa nd bus in ess scale, to en ableenterprises to go abroad, as the economy s Iong-term, susta in abledevelopme nt and lay a solid foun dati on.http:/ en 3 to stre ngthe n the country source of foreig n directin vestme nt in the prin ciple of pluralism, and sh
42、ould be in accorda nee with the stability of its curre ncy, the share of in vestme nt in the country is divided by the amount of the order should be the size of the euro area, Japa n, the U.S. divisionof the share is appropriate now, the dollarweakness, is experiencingthe second phaseof thesubord in
43、 ated debt crisis. It would avoid dollar further toChina s foreign exchangeinflow and outflowof theadverse impact this is Markowitz s portfolio theory, the country to attract foreign investmentin foreign capitalwhe n thespecificapplicati on.cha nn els toattractinvestmentdiversificationin order to av
44、oid investmentrisk as to attractforeig n direct in vestme ntshouldprioritize, select more tha n one in vestor.4 domestic commercial banks in the SAFE report, ForeignExchangeCredit Funds should bereported separately marked with a foreigncurrencystateme nts, it will be morecon duciveto finan cialsupervisi on and man ageme nt departme nt of the sub-flow
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